75 Comments

Arsenal Versus Southampton: Under New Management

steve-bould

So Steve Bould steps into the hot seat this afternoon. He must be chuffed. Imagine managing the greatest team in the history of the FA Cup as they step out for their fourth round tie. No one has played more finals than us. No one has won the thing more often. Mr Bould has a lot of history to weigh him down but he has a great and proud tradition to buoy him up.

The disaffected fans who have for years been calling for a change in the Arsenal dugout have finally got their way. With Arsène facing an inconsistently harsh punishment for his instinctive actions of self defence against an out of control fourth official, we have lost his guiding and talismanic presence during this and the following three games.

I shall say no more on the subject because I don’t want to upset those who think he deserves this ban. Or that Taylor acted appropriately in provoking the response which led to the unfortunate incident. I won’t convince you and you won’t in a million years convince me so let’s just draw a veil over the whole sorry business.

Southampton are a good side. They will provide us with a proper contest today as they always do. The Saint’s heroics against Liverpool were either symptoms of an ongoing Mersyside malaise or a signal that the south coast club is coming into some decent form. Perhaps a little from column A and a little from column B.

That we will rest players was never in doubt and therefore hardly a talking point. That Southampton will also be at less than full strength is down to a formidable injury list. One fan tweeted yesterday that they’ll be without ten players including Ward-Prowse , Rodriguez, Van Dijk, Hesketh, Austin. So neither side will be at full strength and the big debate among Arsenal fans is whether we’ll see our skipper back in the starting line up or not.

I am a big fan of our big German and would be delighted to see him alongside Gabriel but then I like the look of young Noddy Holding too. With four highly experienced centre backs in front of him, these matches represent the youngster’s only realistic chance for first team football, so it’ll be tough for him to miss out. When you join a huge club that is the chance you take, he need only look to Alex Iwobi and Hector Bellerin to see that the gap can be bridged and so he ought to remain positive.

One imagines Alex will resume his understudy role if Mesut is rested and that either Theo or Lucas will start – and possibly both of them. Another player knocking on the door and wondering if an abysmal run of untimely injuries has robbed him of his chance is Alex Oxlade-Chamberlain.

I may be a drooling, ageing imbecile but I seem to recall Arsène suggesting, some years ago, that AOC could end up playing in central midfield. In fact I’m certain of it so we mustn’t discount the possibility especially with Santi, Xhaka and Elneny all missing, Aaron still finding his way back after a long lay off and Coquelin recently injured.

The permutations are manifold and we can all have fun speculating or we can wait for the club to publish the team sheet, whatever floats your boat. One thing is certain the venerable competition still holds a very special place in the hearts of the fans. I was talking to a Man United supporting acquaintance yesterday. He and I agreed, with one notable exception, on absolutely nothing when football inevitably rose to the top of the agenda.

We both agreed that in spite of the greater rewards and prestige associated with the Champions and Premier League titles, there is something particular about the FA Cup. Something nostalgic and thrilling which trick the League Cup has never managed to master. Something which gets the heart beating faster in a way that the long haul of a league competition cannot match. I like the way we climb from the trenches of the attritional war that is our usual fixture schedule and face off in a straight forward, winner takes all bare knuckle scrap.

Of course I don’t need to tell you how important the FA Cup is. We all have our special memories both heart warming and heart breaking. For me, the first huge Arsenal moment in my supporting career was Charlie George’s goal in the final in 1971. I have since then endured Wrexham, Watford and Blackburn, suffered Liverpool’s horrible victory in the 2001 final, and don’t even mention Roger Osborne or Trevor Brooking. Each has burned a scar into the confused, emotional area of my psyche which processes my obsession with football.

However much those and other cup exits have hurt they pale when I recall Santi’s free kick, Ray Parlour’s sublime strike versus Chelsea, Anelka’s cushioned take down and consummate finish against Newcastle, the fireworks at the end of the ’79 final and of course Aaron’s moment of magic to bring the cup back after such a long absence.

So today can we perhaps forget our battles with each other, with officials, bureaucrats and other fans? Instead why don’t we just revel in the countless memories the cup has brought us down through the years? What springs to mind when you first hear the words FA Cup? Why not share your thoughts. Or not. It’s a free country after all.

I’m off to check the water levels in my pond, I’ll see you here for five thirty.

41 Comments

The Refs Are Biased (Part I)

george-orwell

During the course of last Sunday’s match versus Burnley it struck me how little data is publicly available on the role of the referees in deciding the fate of the Premier League title. Major game-changing decisions were made at key points by Mr. Moss and his officiating crew that significantly tilted the balance against the Gunners, such as; failing to call the penalty for the foul against Mustafi, the Xhaka red-card, the penalty against Coquelin and the controversial sending-off of Wenger. The fact that Arsenal were able to snatch a win from the jaws of dropping two vital points cannot cover up the fact that Moss was on the verge of causing a mortal blow to Arsenal’s chances  of a significant title challenge, minimal as they currently are. Chelsea establishing a 10-point advantage, in their current form, would be almost insurmountable in my opinion.

It strikes me that the role of the referees in punishing or favoring a team is either studiously ignored by the press for reasons best known to themselves or simply underestimated. In a recent tweet I described the situation as two unaccountable institutions dominating the premier league; one fixes the game and the other fixes the narrative.

For me, the penny dropped during the that fateful game in 2005 when referee Mike Riley blatantly corrupted the concept of unbiased officiating by doing everything in his power to favor Manchester United as they ended  Arsenal’s historic 49 game unbeaten run.  Among Riley’s many exploits was the unpunished multiple hacking by the Nevilles of Arsenal’s potential danger-man, then in-form Jose Antonio Reyes and the phantom penalty granted to Wayne Rooney who, untouched, dived like a swan over the leg of Sol Campbell. Thanks to YouTube this historic chapter of refereeing infamy is easily available for all to see. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=3P-pCRhFY9M

Any illusions that Riley’s conduct was without the approval of the English football establishment was to be soon disabused. After a decent interval had elapsed, at the end of the 2008-09 season he retired as a professional referee and immediately thereafter was appointed manager of the Professional Game Match Officials Board (PGMOB), where he is now in charge of all the officials, such as Mr. Moss and his crew, who can rightly be regarded as the inheritors of Mr. Riley’s legacy.

Yet we continue to have prattle by the media, premier league officials and by naive, feckless fans that the referees are doing a honest job under difficult circumstances and that their decisions even out in the end. What a load of bollocks!

I focused on penalty decisions which are measureable and have a clear and decisive impact on results as an average of 80% of all penalties is scored. The unbiased data for the past 20 years is very clear; of all the top teams in the premier league Arsenal is the least favored team by premier league officials.

YR FOR AFC MUFC LFC CFC
15/16 91 2 3 2 5
14/15 83 7 5 6 5
13/14 86 3 5 12 7
12/13 86 6 7 6 11
11/12 100 3 11 6 5
10/11 105 7 5 7 8
09/10 111 4 8 3 12
08/09 84 5 4 6 2
07/08 89 6 9 5 7
06/07 108 11 6 7 4
05/06 76 7 3 6 4
04/05 79 3 3 4 6
03/04 82 7 4 9 4
02/03 83 4 8 6 3
01/02 58 5 5 3 4
00/01 66 2 3 4 4
99/00 70 3 4 3 1
98/99 52 4 2 8 4
97/98 56 1 2 5 5
96/97 62 7 3 1 5
1627 97 100 109 106
81.35 4.85 5 5.45 5.3

Liverpool is top of the charts with an average 5.45 penalties per season followed by Chelsea and Manchester United. Arsenal is the least averaging 4.85 penalties.

The data is even more staggering for the past 10 years. I have expanded the number of top teams to six (6) to include the “nouveau riche” Manchester City.

 YR FOR AFC MUFC LFC CFC THFC MCFC
15/16 91 2 3 2 5 5 8
14/15 83 7 5 6 5 5 8
13/14 86 3 5 12 7 6 7
12/13 86 6 7 6 11 0 6
11/12 100 3 11 6 5 5 8
10/11 105 7 5 7 8 8 9
09/10 111 4 8 3 12 3 5
08/09 84 5 4 6 2 3 7
07/08 89 6 9 5 7 7 2
06/07 108 11 6 7 4 7 4
943 54 63 60 66 49 64
94.3 5.4 6.3 6 6.6 4.9 6.4

Compared to the previous 10 years the average number of penalties per season has increased by almost 50%, from 68.4 to 98.3. Clearly the referees are now having a more significant impact on the game by awarding one-half more penalties than prior years. Yet Arsenal remains in the lower reaches among top-teams at 5.4 penalties per season. Only North London rivals Tottenham are lower at 4.9. The most dramatic development is that the moneyed teams are getting more penalties in their favor led by the wealthy Chelsea, followed by City and United in that order. Surely this is a case of “follow-the-money” as would be the mantra of any unbiased investigation by law enforcement or any regulatory body.

What is not evident in the table above is gone are the days when a mid-table team, between 1997 and 2006, would be ranked first in penalties awarded, such as; Southampton (97/98), Middlesbrough (99/00), Newcastle (00/01, 01/02 and 03/04) and Crystal Palace (04/05). In the latter years the top-ranked team for penalties has been mostly City, followed by Chelsea and United. Arsenal was an exception in 05/06 and 06/07 and since then it has been downhill with one exception.

The most striking departure from the norm of the refs giving traditional big-teams most of the penalties was last season when Leicester was awarded an unprecedented 13, a record for the past 20 years. As I have observed on twitter this is a clear case of the officials choosing the PL winners and losers as Vardy in particular simply needed to wrap his foot round a defender and throw himself  to the ground in the penalty area to earn the decision. As things now stand, the disparity is not as great as three teams are on top (Liverpool, City and Spurs) have all been granted six (6) penalties. Arsenal is close behind with five (5). No wonder the top-six is so closely bunched together, apart from Chelsea who are way out in front. Clearly if the refs award penalties in an unbiased fashion it will not give one team, i.e. Leicester last year, such a decisive advantage.

After last December’s game with City when Leroy Sane clearly scored an offside goal as evident on tv, a technological aid which is easily available to match officials if the powers that be would allow it, Arsene Wenger remarked:

“… as it is well known, the referees are protected very well like the lions in the zoo, so we have to live with those decisions.”

Maybe Arsene has to live with it because he as a manager cannot highlight the bias and disparity in officiating lest he be accused of bringing the game into disrepute. What excuse do we as fans have for not protesting the nonsense that currently prevails where widely-used technology is unavailable officials to help decide game changing decisions like penalties and offsides?

In Part II I will share with you the complementary data on the penalties against. Trust me, the data is equally as damning.

216 Comments

Arsenal: A 98 Claret – unique vintage

Cqsy0rFW8AAMvCV.jpg

Good afternoon Positives,

Got your breath back yet ?

Nor have I – What an afternoon !

Of the game itself ? In contrast to a number of recent games we started well, brisk, with sharp passing and movement and throughout the first half it seemed just a matter of ‘when’ we would crack the Burnley defence and certainly not ‘if’. Ozil looked fitter and more mobile today than he has been in months and Iwobi’s touch on the ball was superb at times. Fair play to our visitors, they did more than put ten men behind the ball but we were clearly a yard faster than them and a split second quicker. They clung on, no doubt slightly relieved to trot into the dressing room still even.

A predictable first half then gave me no clue as to the tumult that was to follow. There was not even a small cloud nor the beat of a butterfly’s wing to alert me to the 45 53 minutes of imminent uproar, to enjoy, endure and finally emerge from bruised but triumphant. It was a game to savour, but only with hindsight. To live through it was to tour the circles of footballing Hell.

The second half had so many pivotal incidents, an almost unique catalogue of controversy and contortion. You could sense after 50+ minutes, and still with no goal, we were beginning to get a bit more desperate, and not in bad way. Events unfolded!

First, we had the Mustafi “penalty”, and then we had the Mustafi goal. A good finish from the influential German and, in the context of the game, what should have been the decisive strike. Burnley’s heads dropped. The visitors appalling away record ( P9 L8 D1) heading for another frustrated notch BUT NO! Within five minutes we had a third twist of the sunlit drama;

Granit, Granit, Granit, Granit, ……………Granit! You can’t do that, you just can’t, without risking the red. My little Swiss chum, the officials have their eye on you. I know Mr Wenger will be discussing the matter with you and your parents this week.

From smoothly controlling the game with a deserved lead we were firmly on the back foot from the 65th minute calamity. The light blues clearly felt they could get something and it required a solid defensive performance hold them at bay. But we did. They never really opened us up. Kosc always had a boot in or Monreal his head in the way, Petr calmed the scene. By the time we got to the 90th minute , and even with 7 minutes added time to suffer, I thought we had the points, a scruffy 1-0.

BUT NO! Two penalties in time added on. Two for goodness sake. Le Coq clipping Barnes’ knee, much to the apparent mortification of Mr Wenger, then Mee’s studs connecting with our French defender’s temple. Both correctly awarded by Moss, both despatched by shots straight down the middle of the goal, with the Chilean’s panenka the work of an artist very sure of his brush strokes.

Of our players?  I thought Ramsey was outstanding. the Welshman had been playing well but the departure of Xhaka called for him to put in a decisive performance in midfield, to be the BIG player, and he put in that work. At the front Sanchez had a good afternoon even by his own exacting standard. As referred to above his slotting the winner in the 98th minute in such an important game is the work of a professional with no fear – magnificent.

Of the opposition ? The game ended with Dyche frothing at the mouth, and I admit I felt just a twinge of pity for the ( by then) ashen faced Burnley supremo, so close on two occasions this season, but no cigar at all. He must dream of Laurent Koscielny, poor man.

I am calm again now.

So on to Cup glory on the South Coast after a pleasant week of footballing inactivity. Enjoy the remainder of your Sunday.

77 Comments

Arsenal Versus Burnley: Slow and Doubtful

Trainspotting

The problem with us football fans is that we will insist on taking sides. Maybe it isn’t just football fans. Perhaps it’s part of the human condition. I was musing on this during a frosty morning dog walk along the trackbed of a now sadly defunct rail line. Don’t get me started on Ernest Marples or we may never get back on topic.

The town of Radstock was built on coal and steam. Now that it has neither it is a strangely soulless place lost in a modern age for which it wasn’t designed. Once upon a time it boasted not one but two stations serving two separate rail companies. As I crossed from the trackbed of the S&DJR, the Somerset and Dorset or Slow and Dirty as it became known, to that of the old Great Western Railway I did so with my lip curled.

You see I decided some time ago I was an S&D man – the obvious truth plain to anyone who cared to consider the facts was that it was just a nicer railway, superior in every respect. Smarter livery, prettier scenery, more desirable destinations. As I waited for my three legged collie to catch up I couldn’t help wondering where this need to endlessly choose a camp and stick with it arises. It is, on sober reflection, utterly bonkers.

Having a favourite bygone railway and despising its closest rival, this is surely the product of a deranged psyche. Yet there it is. I will argue the superiority of the Serene and Delightful over God’s Wonderful Railway, as its deluded followers would have it known, and I won’t budge an inch. As football fans we too take this approach to the very limit and never doubt the sincerity of our beliefs.

Take Danny Rose. When you watch him play what do you see? The same as me I’ll wager. We see but two defining qualities. Violence and cheating. He will go out of his way to kick his opponent and will roll on the floor as if shot, clutching his face if anyone comes within two feet of him. These twin traits are not the product of a weak mind or a lack of self respect, or self control. These are two parts of a careful strategy, and of a long game. Injuring your opposite number has the obvious potential to make your life easier. Provoke him into retaliation and you have the perfect opportunity to try to get him sent off. The two dovetail beautifully.

Now, go out and find yourself a decent and honest Spurs fan, then ask what she sees and do you know what? She’ll tell you she sees the best left back in the league. Neither you nor she will be lying. How can these circles be squared? How does such an untenable paradox exist? I can only imagine it is dear old Nye Bevan‘s “This is my truth tell me yours” in action.

There is no reconciling two opposites. To those gymnastic centrists able to balance on a fence of their own self righteousness the people on either extreme seem so far distant that they are all but indistinguishable from one another. Hence the feeble minded old cliché of both extremes being as bad as one another. To them extremely good and extremely bad are somehow one and the same.

What happens when this polarisation becomes internecine? Civil war. Strife. Irreconcilable enemies no longer listening. Brother against brother. Friend against friend. Or The Arsenal Family, as we call it.

I’ve come to the conclusion that using this platform to fire my truths over no man’s land at an enemy trench filled with people wearing the same uniform as me hasn’t just become old it’s become pointless. As pointless as picking sides in an obsolete dispute over who runs the best local rail service. I’ve had enough of it. I’m never going to convince them of my truth and I sure as hell don’t want to hear any more of theirs.

So from now on I’ll just focus on the football if it’s all the same to you. It won’t be as spicy and those of you who just enjoy a fight will no doubt find it dull but you can always go score some points off your nemesis du jour to buck yourself up.

Today we host Burnley at the Emirates Stadium in a match which is the beginning of what Arsène described as a “moment of truth”. A pretty long drawn out moment as it lasts from now until May but I think we all know what he meant. With Chelsea in dominant form and the clubs around us dropping points we need to establish a long winning sequence if we want to be in the mix at the end of this ‘moment’.

Burnley will take heart from Swansea’s heroics at Anfield yesterday and will look to add weight to the ‘no easy games’ mantra to which I for one subscribe. I expect the visitors to provide obdurate opposition today. They’ll be looking for counter attacking goals and especially to force corners and free kicks around our area. I don’t expect them to time waste from the kick off but rather to follow the example set by Preston which Swansea attempted to emulate and get at us early.

Get a goal and then man the barricades is a fair approach when playing Arsenal but it does leave cracks through which we can slip. It isn’t a risk free strategy but a more capable side than Preston could have made it pay and Burnley are without doubt more capable.

Expect patient build up and a gradual tightening of the screw until the first goals come. It has become a pattern of late and not one I see changing against this level of opposition. Try not to panic if we have to defend occasionally and remember fast free flowing football is almost always played on the counter – you can’t play like that against two lines of five camped on or around the eighteen yard line.

My prediction is that we’ll win but it will be hard going at first. I particularly want to see Aaron on the score sheet but it would be a brave punter who bet against either Olivier or Alexis getting the goals again today. Why Aaron? Quite simply when he finds his groove and starts scoring he is a force of nature and can be the kind of player to push us up that extra gear we need if we are to win something this year.

Enjoy the match I’ll see you here at two fifteen.

162 Comments

Thank You Arsenal 1st Team, We’re Moving On Up

 

george-and-weezy

Arsenal 1st Team
Arsenal Football Club
Highbury House
75 Drayton Park
LONDON N5 1BU

 Hi Guys,

I won’t be presumptuous. In the unlikely event any of you saw my open letter last week, either through the Arsenal media office or through your PR person, you may be aware that many of us Gooners have not given up on the season and are anxious to convey this to you. With 17 games to go, despite the usual nonsense from journos in mainstream media and the self-appointed experts in blogs and on twitter, an eight (8) point gap with Chelsea is not insurmountable.

I spent a lot of time in my last letter showing in the 1997/98 season, after New Year’s Day, Arsenal was dead and buried, in 5th place, 12 points behind Manchester United:

Club P W D L GF GA GD Pts
Man United 20 14 4 2 47 13 34 46
Blackburn Rovers 21 11 8 2 38 21 17 41
Chelsea 21 12 3 6 46 21 25 39
Liverpool 20 11 4 5 36 19 17 37
Leeds United 21 10 5 6 30 23 7 35
Arsenal 20 9 7 4 35 23 12 34

By the end of the season Arsenal had made up the difference to beat United to the title by one solitary point:

Club P W D L GF GA GD Pts
Arsenal 38 23 9 6 68 33 35 78
Man United 38 23 8 7 73 26 47 77
Liverpool 38 18 11 9 68 42 26 65
Chelsea 38 20 3 15 71 43 28 63

A win against Leicester in late December 1997 was to be the start of a remarkable 48 points from 18 league games. You should take hope that yesterday’s win against Swansea is the start of a similar run by the class of 2017.

I would suggest that you face an equal if not slightly less of a challenge than the class of 1998. As of the completion of round 20 on January 4, the table read as follows:

Club P W D L GF GA GD Pts
Chelsea 20 16 1 3 42 15 27 49
Liverpool 20 13 5 2 48 23 25 44
Tottenham 20 12 6 2 39 14 25 42
Man City 20 13 3 4 41 22 19 42
Arsenal 20 12 5 3 44 22 22 41

That is only eight (8) points, compared to 12. Some people will try to convince you that things have changed; this time it is different because Chelsea have spent so much money on quality players. Bollocks. Let’s rely on the words of the Boss, when he described the competitive environment of 1997-98:

“I soon realized when I came to Arsenal that teams raise their levels when they play against us. I would watch opponents on video tape and then see a completely different performance when we played them because Arsenal is such a big club and other sides badly want to beat us.”

This was the exact scenario in Saturday’s match vs Swansea. In the first half they came at you with guns blazing, similar to Bournemouth in the previous PL game. But you guys reacted beautifully. Soaked up the pressure, limited their chances, gradually took control of the game, hit them on the counter and score goals repeatedly. Four (4) goals on the road and a clean sheet to boot. As the Boss said you were “relentless” to the end.

As most of you guys know from experience, things can change very quickly in football. In one round of matches, after 21 games, Arsenal has moved from 4th to 5th, snapping at the heels of  both Liverpool and Tottenham who at 45 are only one point ahead. Trust me, none of those two teams immediately above us have the depth in quality players as the Gunners and sooner or later the cream will rise to the top.

Despite the margin of that victory over Swansea, the usual infantile, barely literate gaggle of ex-pros who pose as unbiased pundits in mainstream media were doing their best to belittle your chances. Now most of them, you think, having played and suffered against the Arsenal, would be intimately knowledgeable of recent 20-year history under Arsene Wenger.

  • Arsenal has finished an average of 3rd; no other club except Manchester United has a better average.
  • No other team has a better absolute deviation from their average league position than Arsenal at 0.985, meaning that on the average the club’s position will deviate by less than 1. United is the next best at 1.28.
  • All other big -6 team have in 20 years finished lower than Arsenal; City fell away to as low as 47th, way down into the 3rd
  • Arsenal has never finished less than 4th.
  • Arsenal has never finished below Tottenham

Yet last Saturday, after you guys hammered Swansea, Paul Scholes, Owen Hargreaves and Robbie Savage came up with the lame trope that the top-six is more competitive than ever and Arsenal will fall out of the top-four. From the mouth of Scholes on BT Sport:

“I’ll go for Tottenham and Arsenal, fifth and sixth,

“Because I think the other teams are better than them.

“Simple as that, yeah.”

Knowing as we do the unbiased data of the past 20-years, this is truly the opinion of a simpleton, yeah.

Savage is no better:

“I’m going to say Man City because Man City fans absolutely love me and I’m going to go with Scholesy, Arsenal.”

Equally a part of the blind, stupid herd was Hargreaves:

“Yeah I don’t think Arsenal are going to make it this year,”

Those of us on the western side of the pond are similarly afflicted by this mindless punditry by, of course, ex-pros from the English game. We had to put up with the two Robbies of NBC-Soccer (Robbie Earle and Robbie Mustoe) who discounted your demolition of Swansea and kept bigging up Spurs as title contenders. These are guys who played for clubs which in their day were regularly thrashed by Arsenal. Uhm. Do you see a pattern here?

(A friend of mine on twitter (The Big Apple@lagrossepomme) described this as “Pret-a-Porter” analysis, meaning ready to consume, standardized opinions-analyses that follow the same narrative.)

Like us fans, you guys must be wondering how silly these guys feel when, less than 24-hours later, their favorite team Manchester City is routed 4-nil by Everton, giving another shambolic display of defending. How bad was it? The Toffees had 4 shots on target; all of them scored. As for league position, the only team that moved up and into the top-four  over the weekend was The Arsenal. Ouch!

There is still a long way to go in this season but there are hopeful signs. As someone noted on twitter:

” Xhaka/Ramsey pivot have played 312 minutes together we’ve scored 13 (one every 24 min.) 2 against.”

In my opinion, while this is a small sample size it is a good omen. I am sure you guys will build on that. With Santi looking set to once again go under the knife, Elneny at the AFCON until late January and Coquelin recovering from injury, Rambo and Xhaka will simply have to grow up in the heat of battle. You all know they can’t do it alone in central midfield. Teamwork is essential to overcome any weaknesses in our set-up. Fortunately you are a stronger group than last year. At the same time last January you had to depend on good old Flamini (god bless his pointy-shouty efforts) while Elneny was feeling his way into the league.

Have no fear, Chelsea is due their run of bad games. Every club has a dip in this Premier League marathon of a season.  Based on the data, if the injury gods can rein peace on us, you the class of 2017 will make this a real title-race. I am convinced of this, especially because you are under the leadership of the greatest manager in the league, whose been there, done that.

Up The Arsenal!

Positively yours

@shotta_gooner, The Contrarian

95 Comments

Arsenal : Rumble in the Mumbles

231Bore da Welsh speaking Positive people and good morning to any others who have stumbled across the threshold,

A foul, wet morning in Norfolk which does nothing to deflect my good mood and optimism this Sunday.

Of yesterday’s game it provided probably the easiest three points we have earned all season. Given the thumping we administered to the ‘Ammers that is saying something but I say yesterday had the edge in terms of easy contest.

Admittedly the afternoon started a little differently. With the shiny new Mr Clement in charge, hair neatly cut and black overcoat tightly buttoned, I anticipated a vigorous workout against a club who have had the ‘eye’ (¤) on us in recent seasons.

Our hosts starting purposefully, playing a bit of real passing football, harrying our lads with intent for half an hour. As is our usual modus operandi we allowed the Welsh dragon to run out of puff about the 30  and then imposed ourselves to take control of the game. Sanchez. The opener before half time was inevitable I think as by that stage Sanchez and Ozil had run off the rust that had accumulated from their lengthy holidays and both were able to find space and receive enough ball to weave their respective magic spells.

The kerfuffle that Olivier’s ankle caused following the goal was a bit mystifying, but not as mystifying at first sight as the card that young Ki picked up for diving in our box. HOWEVER, having had the opportunity to review the incident from a number of different angles while I see contact, yes. I do not see contact sufficient to fell the player in the manner observed. Good call referee and a considerable relief to go in 1-0 up after what had been a strong finish to the half by our hosts. On such small details victories pivot.

If Mr Jones eagle eyed wisdom in spotting the South Korean’s deceit was an omen the Welsh failed to heed its portent. Instead, as the game sparked back into life in the second half, they found themselves pinned in their half by a mighty hurricane in black and fluorescent yellow. We really turned up the game to top gear and the Swans could not live with it.

Over the next 20 minutes they disintegrated like an upset jigsaw puzzle when the fates turned against them. And what fates they were on the day! The goals themselves I acknowledge were hardly classic Wengerball, and I admit a certain sympathy for our former keeper as he plucked the ball out from the second own goal. Rage at the moon all you like Lukasz, with our lads banging in accurate shots from all around the box there is a probability that one day the deflection will be in our favour, and yesterday the luck fell our way.

Of our lads ? As I think was said yesterday by several contributors on here Alex Iwobi had an outstanding game and the longer the game went on the stronger he got. Four shots in the box – that is what I want to see. The first time that Aaron has started two consecutive games this season and that continuity was reflected in his greater influence and more certain touch. I thought Monreal was great yesterday. I thoroughly enjoyed the physical battle he and Dyer and Naughton got into. And finally a word of praise for Gabriel who, as he always does, came in and did his job thoroughly and quietly.

Of our opponents Sigurdsson is a good player. He will find suitors knocking if, as seems probable, Swansea slip away in May. The rest ? Over to Mr Clement for some hard work.

Hwyl fawr am nawr and enjoy your Sunday!

172 Comments

Arsenal Versus Swansea: On The Tip Of The Tongue Of The Year

Mumbles Lighthouse

When I saw the pictures of the Arsenal training in wintry snow ahead of today’s trip to Swansea I confess to harbouring a certain sympathy for them. As my Scottish uncle used to say to me that snell wind makes everone fair jeelit. The sympathy has evaporated this morning as I sit in my frozen writing shed stabbing with numb fingers at my frost hardened Smith-Corona. But on I plough.

It wasn’t only compassion which moved in my breast at the sight of poor Danny Welbeck muffled in his muffler. I also felt a twang of envy. You see I rather like the town of Swansea and I was a little jealous of the players and fans who will get to visit today. I should imagine the beach at Rhossili will be a bit parky this weekend so I doubt a trip to the Gower is on the cards, but I do urge you to make a weekend of it if you are travelling and at least have a little tour.

Swansea City FC, we are told, has done much to put the ‘ugly, lovely town’ on the map. Since their ascendency to the higher reaches they’ve earned plaudits for playing the game as many of us like to see it played. A fashionable football team allied with a popular university can encourage an enlightened view of what had previously been regarded as a somewhat grim industrial setting.

Sadly the Swans have been struggling of late. I’ll leave you to decide whether the managerial merry go round in which they’ve indulged themselves has been cause or effect of this unwelcome downturn in  their fortunes. Personally I think it is always a mistake in life to panic, to chop and change when things are going badly.

An unfashionable view in a footballing world where many seem to crave change simply for the sake of change itself. I can only assume that decades of consumer culture, of an economy built on endless growth, demands we throw away and replace at every opportunity. This is not the road to happiness, merely the endless dissatisfaction of the spoilt child given too much, too often.

So while I am grateful for any advantage to the team I support I am also saddened to see one of the few smaller clubs to actually beat us by coming and out playing football going through hard times. I believe the league is improved by keeping the good guys and losing the dross and not the other way around.

Improvement of the league isn’t the concern of most of you, I know this. All that matters is three points and that is of course your prerogative. Just as it is the prerogative of those who take a more holistic view to want to be part of a culture of excellence rather than a lowest common denominator tactical dirge, which, if given too much rope, will strangle the golden goose as audiences eventually tire and turn away.

So Swansea are all at sea and should be there for the taking. Surely an away win is such a guaranteed result that there is no point in even watching. Just go bung a tenner on us at the bookies and collect your one pence winnings at ten to five. Well perhaps. Perhaps if you’d never watched a season of football from start to finish. Maybe this is your reality. In my reality teams who are struggling need to be put to the sword a little before their fragile confidence is exposed.

Concede an unlucky goal such as that fortuitous, bobbling, pinball series of deflections which gifted Preston the lead the other day and that fragile confidence will cease to be a factor. A team in decline can still surprise you and we will need to be sharp and up to the scratch from the moment Mr Jones emits his primary peep.

What of the teams? Swansea will be without Neil Taylor after having his cheekbone broken in training on Wednesday. I don’t know much about the estimable Mr Taylor but as he played every minute of the Welsh teams heroic failure in the Euros I’m sure Kelly, our resident Cymru expert, can fill us in on the details. Losing a first choice international full back against an Arsenal team rightly famed for their fast, wide attacking game cannot be a good thing.

They will also be missing Jefferson Antonio Montero Vite who is one player and not four as you might think. He is a fast and dangerous wingers and one that the home team will surely miss. Talking of flyers we still see no sign of Theo nor of Hector and I am just beginning to worry that Theo’s small, irrelevant, only keeping him out as a precaution, niggle might be turning into something more significant. It is a mark of the quality in our squad that we can miss these two hugely important players and still approach any fixture with confidence.

Given Gabriel’s flawless understudy shift when Hector first joined the sick list and seeing just what a player Arsène signed in Lucas Perez I don’t think we need to be overly concerned. Of course we want our first choice players fit and healthy but Perez in particular excites me and so I’ll be happy to see him step up in Theo’s absence.

With Danny back and raring to go we have a superfluity of striking options which ought to make us blush. Sanchez and Giroud are in stunning scoring form, Mesut has also stepped up in front of goal this season and we all know the boy Iwobi can find the net when the fancy takes him. Add to that the goals Aaron can get us running from midfield and the Swansea defence ought to be in for a trying time this afternoon.

I shan’t be watching with you today as I have been thoroughly duped by my ever resourceful wife into attending what I’d assumed was an evening event but transpires to start at three and finish at seven thirty. That will teach me not to listen when I’m trying to concentrate on Doom Three Hell On Earth. Lesson learned. Press pause and get all of the details before saying yes to anything.

If you are lucky enough to be in beautiful South Wales today then wrap up warm and should you bump into me at Longleat’s Festival Of Lights don’t tell me the score, it wouldn’t enhance our friendship.

124 Comments

An Open Letter to The Arsenal 1st Team

arsenal-1st-team-squad-20162017-1

Arsenal 1st Team
Arsenal Football Club
Highbury House
75 Drayton Park
LONDON N5 1BU

Dear Fellow Gooner,

I write to you as one minor member of the worldwide legion of Arsenal supporters whom you represent week-after-week on the football fields of England and Europe. You may be aware, according to the most recent research (2011), there were 113 million Arsenal fans worldwide, the fourth highest number for any football club on earth. Six years later those numbers could easily have doubled. In other words you are carrying the hopes and dreams of nearly 200 million people worldwide. I am certain you would agree it is an awesome responsibility.

But this letter is not to burden you with the weight of fan expectation. We know there is a minority who expect you will win every match, day-in, day-out. The majority of us know such results are unrealistic. While you may try to win every game, we know that Arsenal Football Club is competing against wealthier clubs with just as many if not more fantastic players, whom they can acquire by paying much larger transfer fees and wages.  There are times when results go against us because our best players are unavailable due to injury. Sometimes, as in the real world, there are days when despite doing your best as a professional, events do not favor the team, whether due to human error on our part or by the officials. As the boss correctly says, (and he is hardly ever wrong) it takes enormous “mental strength” to consistently compete at the top-level as every Arsenal 1st team has done for the past 20 years.

So now that we are midway the 2016-17 season, what are the realistic expectations of you the 1st team? Arsenal is lying in 5th place in the league, 8 points behind the leader, Chelsea, who just completed a 13-game win streak. In the last 20 years of the premier league, no team with a 13-game streak has failed to win the title. In the last 13 years of the premier league, the league winner has either been 1st or 2nd at the half-way point. Surely Arsenal stands no chance?

But records were meant to be broken. In 2013-14, Liverpool was the first team to go on an 11-game unbeaten streak and fail to win the title. Last year, Leicester was the first team in the history of the English top-flight to go from last place to being champions in 13 months. In January 2016 BREXIT was dead and buried in the polls, so was Donald Trump months later.  In one year, contrary to conventional thinking, despite the “expert” pundits in the mainstream media , the army of negative nellies on twitter and social media,  the underdog made the impossible possible.

Why can’t this Arsenal 1st Team make history? It is not as if it wasn’t done before. In the history of the premier league Arsenal is the only club who have come from as far back as 6th place midway the season to grab title and win the FA cup as well, Arsene Wenger’s first ever double. According to this source it was a season:

“…one which few would have dared dream about, particularly during the dark months of November and December when a midseason slump led to rumours of dressing room disharmony and a seemingly unbridgeable gap to league leaders Manchester United.”

Haven’t you the 1st Team have mid-season slump last December with back-to-back losses to Everton and Manchester City followed by a draw with Bournemouth?

That 97/98 Arsenal team did not recover their mojo until February 1998 after the legendary in-house meeting. According to Arseweb:

“…. the team and Wenger had a “thrash it out” meeting during which Adams demanded that the defence receive more protection from the midfield. The response from the central midfield pairing of Vieira and Petit was magnificent, and aided by better on and off field communication due to the Frenchmen’s improving English, Arsenal embarked on an unbeaten run which would eventually carry them all the way to the league title.”  

This 1st team already had a 14-game unbeaten run between August and November. Surely if the weaknesses evident at Bournemouth and Preston North End , are “thrashed-out”, couldn’t this team sustain another run and put the current league leaders under serious pressure?

As we lesser mortals, who have no hope of ever being professional footballers, can attest, it is easy to wallow in doubt and fear, after a string of bad results. Frankly for this Arsenal 1st team, there is no reason to be fearful. This is the deepest and best squad the professor has put together since the barren years while paying for the new stadium. According to transfermkt over the past five years AFC has spent £210.70m to gradually improve the squad.

You the Arsenal 1st Team may be missing Santi Cazorla, the technical leader, but in return you can welcome Aaron Ramsey who is the beating heart of the British core, the player who Arsene Wenger most trust to do what is necessary for the team to win. In 97-98, midway the season the club lost to suspension, the magical Dennis Berkgamp, and after his return took a while to find its groove. Similarly this 1st team is about to welcome back from illness a future midfield legend by way of Mesut Özil, a player who earlier this week demonstrated in no uncertain fashion his commitment to Arsenal and Arsene Wenger. In 97/98, it was not because the players in the squad were the best in the premier league; Alex Manninger was certainly not. Seemingly more critical, as one looks back, they had the commitment and mental strength.

Will you, the Arsenal 1st team, seize the spirit of 97-98 and make the impossible possible. To paraphrase the words of the great bard, Shakespeare:

Once more unto the breach, dear friends, once more;
Or close the wall up with our Gooner dead.
In peace there’s nothing so becomes a man
As modest stillness and humility:
But when the blast of war blows in our ears,
Then imitate the action of the tiger;
Stiffen the sinews, summon up the blood,
Disguise fair nature with hard-favour’d rage;
Then lend the eye a terrible aspect;

Respectfully yours,

@Shotta_Gooner, The Contrarian

39 Comments

No Arsene – No Ozil – No Party

880277151-frank_gallagher___shameless_by_bezerkartwerk-d6kpv0xI wonder if Arsene Wenger is between little bit rock and a hard place?

Re-signing for two years is unlikely to cut it with Ozil – or potential new signings. A two year extension could potentially have a paralysing effect on our short-term team-building activities.

But the man himself may not want more than two years.

He may have doubts regarding fan reception to the news of an extended extension. He may be weary of the near existential crisis that occurs everytime we drop a point or three.

The toxicity of a small minority can not be ignored; what they lack in size or credibility in the eyes of most, they more than make up for with noise – not least in ways  highlighted in this comment from Eddy in the comments section from yesterday’s blog:

The thing is, can we really blame the media, journos and pundits etc, when a whole host of people who claim to love Arsenal are running blogs and twitter accounts dedicated to attacking all things Arsenal, everything from the major shareholders, the board, the manager, the coaches, the scouts, the fitness and medical people, the players, even our youth players, for God’s sake even our ladies team, everything the club does is dismissed at best and attacked at worst.  These people have put their 15 minutes of fame ahead of the thing they claim to love.

The fact [is] complete and utter scumbags can get fame by being caricature fans on AFTV, and be made legit by the main stream media who interview them, or reprint their views in major publications.

Some have been very smart about it, they spotted that one of the biggest and most successful Arsenal sites for years was Arsenal News Review (ANR), and it’s run by a Chelsea fan, who [has] seen by the success of his book about Arsene Wenger, that Arsenal fans were there to be exploited and make him money, and like Pyles Malmer, the others have seen ways to make money out of it. Some,  like AFTV and some blogs, have been making money from sponsorship and the clicks.  Others have got jobs with the bigger media outlets. bLeGrove is the bench mark for how negativity sells, and many Arsenal blogs abandoned their even-handed outlook and went negative to try and get a piece of it, and others appeared on the scene trying to get their bit too. We even have one blog that only ever publishes a new article after a bad result, they do not have a single word to say when we play well and have a good win.

And let’s not forget the likes of the AST (when was the last time they had a good word to say about the club) and other so called supporters’ groups that have been set up with the sole purpose of attacking the club – BSM are one that springs to mind.

Not to mention the outfit that use a bit of Twitter fame to sell Arsenal related goods,
whilst not forgetting that RedAction, a group that was set up to improve support, abandoned any semblance of credibility when they actually supported the A4 protest last season.

So can we blame the media for its agenda against Arsenal?”

The idiot minority have made themselves the story in the eyes of an entirely mercenary and opportunistic media. That alone could be incredibly draining for anyone, even if they are allowed – even encouraged – to ignore it.

The delays to Ozil’s contract are a concern and Arsene’s apparent indecision is surprising in as far as he’s the last person who would allow the club to be damaged by his own actions.

The delays to Ozil’s contract may not just be about whether Arsene re-signs.

It could also be about who follows Arsene if he does not.

Equally, it could all be sorted one week after the end of the season.

But short of winning the PL or the CL, would Arsene himself feel the team had done enough to justify a 3+ years contract extension?

The WOB’s noisy little campaign has the potential to scyth down the club’s short and medium-term prospects with a devastating example of the Law of Unintended Consequences.

Yes, we’ve been made aware of Ozil’s doubts.

But how many others like Ozil are waiting on current outcomes. How many would happily jump ship to escape one of the PL’s most odious fanbases. Sure, it’s a minority of trolls making a racket but the failure of the majority of fans to effectively shout them down suggests complicity.

What was that saying about all it takes for evil to prevail …?

And how many players at one time or another have been the subject of vile abuse from ‘supporters? It’s by no means a short list, is it?

I’d suggest these are perilous moments for the club and we may now be at an ominous fork in the road. I’d also suggest we – the fans and the club – have much more to lose than Mr Wenger.

Not least because, as I believe someone may have already pointed out.

No Arsene, no party.

Stolen from Arsenal Andrew by lazy old me – George.

94 Comments

Arsenal: Preston Floored By Larry’s Sword

c0wiijaxuaaglbhGood morning Positive Arsenalists.

Another grey morning over Norfolk but a familiar sensation of satisfaction as an Arsenal fan still lingers after last night’s game in the North West.

Yes, yes I know we were pretty dire in the first half. The home side rushed into us with great energy and not a little skill at times and made us look a bit little silly. On several occasions they opened up our defence in a manner only PSG had done previously this season. When we did have the ball some of our passing and efforts to use possession constructively were discomforting to watch, so inept was the outcome. I see even Arsene said the only positive was that it was only 1-0 as the players went down the half time tunnel. He knows, you know.

I have no real understanding of what was going on in our players’ heads during the opening 45. I can only point to the lack of experience of Rambo, Xhaka, Mustafi and Gabby + the youngster AMN, in actually playing together before, that might explain the spaces and gaps that Preston were allowed. Why we seemed unable to hit an accurate 5 yard pass I don’t know, but let us not dwell too deeply. One interesting point was that in spite of the difficulties we had there was no rowing between the players, everyone just got on with the game. No Sanchez=no scrapping (perhaps) !

HOWEVER whatever the reason for that collective early confusion, after the break we turned out as a team transformed. I have no idea if the manager stamped his foot, or Steve Bould identified and corrected the tactical defensive mistakes that had disrupted us. Whatever switch had been flicked however after Mr Madeley blew his whistle Preston were hardly in the game again. Our defence became resolute, our passing text book Wengerball. After peppering our goal in the first half they created nothing in the second, with Ospina a spectator. The home side adopted the posture of a boxer pushed back around the ring by jabs, short straight punches and the occasional hook, backed into the corner and, eventually, floored. As with so many things in football however the timing of our equaliser, with Preston minds still not focussed on the pitch, was crucial. Lovely goal from Rambo, lovely set up by Iwobi.

For the remainder of the second half it was increasingly desperate defence by the home side and, to their credit, their defenders were well organised and flung their bodies in again and again to block shots, headers and deny our clever flicks and short passing. The home crowd roared them on, a replay at the Ems a tasty prize if they could just cling on. As our hosts energy gradually drained however, up stepped Larry. Ah Larry, a performer, a worker, a leader. A man who recently has been the decisive weapon, and yesterday he put the blade through Preston hearts.

It had to be, it was Fate.

Of our lads I thought Perez, Larry, the Ox and Iwobi stood out. Aaron’s goal was excellent and he stamped his authority on the second half, an intelligent game from the Welshman. AMN was getting some stick but I though he did fine, as did all the back 4 after their early discombobulation.

Of Preston? Their central defender Clarke and their winger and goalscorer Robinson were good. With the transfer window open you could see the national limelight probably inspired a few of them to greater heights.

No complaints about Madeley last night – 7/10.

The third round of the Cup safely negotiated and a lazyish Sunday in prospects with our fingers crossed in the hope of some embarrassment for Tottingham or Chels. It would be a big turn up if either gave up their Wembley ambitions but that is the magic of the Cup isn’t it – that little spark of hope?

Finally while I had a good day yesterday others may have enjoyed 3rd round day even more:

http://www.lep.co.uk/sport/football/preston-north-end/teenager-to-says-thanks-to-wenger-for-sickbed-message-1-8321949

Lovely story, enjoy your Sunday.

(opening photo by @rebeccaherber44 – good innit?)