39 Comments

Arsenal Versus Hull: It’s Good To Talk

Precautions

 

Dear Stew,

Like you I am an Arsenal fan, unlike you I’m really pessimistic about the team and its prospects this season and for as many seasons as I can remember. It confuses me how you remain so positive given our palpable lack of success and the vanishingly small likelihood we will fulfil our potential this year either.

Disgruntled Supporter.

 

Dear Disgruntled Supporter,

Thank you for your polite enquiry and for not calling me a deluded four letter word who conflates Arsène with Arsenal and suggesting I’m satisfied with fourth place every year. You know how those clichés can, in very short order, become like sand in the Vaseline. It appears to me the first significant difference between us is our definition of success. Yours seems rigid and narrow while mine is broad and flexible. These definitions are seldom intellectual positions at which we arrive after much thought, they are more visceral, instinctive and as such the differences between us are almost impossible to reconcile. It seems therefore we’d be better off trying to find common ground rather than simply exploring that which divides us. After all we both support the same team.

Stew.

 

Dear Stew,

How is wanting to win the league ‘rigid and narrow’? Doesn’t having a ‘broad and flexible’ definition of success simply mean you settle for second, or usually fourth, best?

Disgruntled Supporter.

 

Dear Disgruntled Supporter,

Allow me to explain. If failure is defined by not winning the league then since Arsenal last won it there have only been four successful teams. All others therefore have been failures. The supporters of 88 clubs have all been supporting failed teams year in year out since 2004. They can by your definition have taken no pleasure in this and all of them must be deeply depressed by the state of their club. Take my local team Bristol Rovers for example. They have enjoyed back to back promotions from Conference to League one, and yet by your definition they have been failures. That seems pretty rigid to me.

Stew

 

Dear Stew

But Arsenal are not Bristol Rovers, we should be winning the league.

Disgrutled Supporter

 

Dear Disgruntled Supporter,

How so? No team has a divine right to win anything. My point about Rovers is that their fans have enjoyed the last two seasons immeasurably. Their definition of success has been sufficiently elastic to allow them to take pleasure from every and any triumph. This is my approach to Arsenal. Last season Arsenal were deemed to have failed. Yet I can’t remember enjoying an end to a league campaign quite as much for a long time. Once the title and the cups were beyond our grasp my definition of success became the highest league finish achievable which also meant finishing above Spurs. It wasn’t what I’d hoped for at the start but by allowing myself to be flexible I felt we still had much to play for. Automatic Champion’s League qualification and maintaining Arsène’s proud record against our historic rivals. As such the final day of the season was a magical and thoroughly satisfying experience. By limiting my definition of success to the league title I would have denied myself that pleasure.

Stew

 

Dear Stew

So you celebrate failure, you’re happy with second best. I’m not, I’m only happy with winning, I want the best for and from my club.

Disgruntled Supporter

 

Dear Disgruntled Supporter

Then you are doomed to a life of unhappiness relieved only very occasionally by fleeting moments of satisfaction. I on the other hand take pleasure from every good performance, every great move, every wonderful goal, every exciting cup run whether it ends in glory or not. Oh and by the way, you might not like this but I also get to enjoy the triumphant moments when the club wins a trophy every bit as much as you do.

It’s also worth considering that however you and I define success and whatever aspects of the season we choose to celebrate, the results will be precisely the same. So who really wins here?

Stew

 

Dear Stew

Wow I hadn’t thought of it like that. So do you not get angry and disappointed when we lose then? How do you cope with that?

Disgruntled Supporter

 

Dear Disgruntled Supporter

That’s exactly the same for both of us. I feel sick, don’t want to talk about football with anyone, get bad tempered and my wife assures me I’m like a spoilt child who’s just been told his parents can’t afford to take him to Disneyland. This sometimes lasts for days.

Stew

 

Dear Stew

Blimey, we have more in common than I thought, except you seem to enjoy supporting Arsenal more than I do. I hope you’re wrong about these attitudes being visceral and maybe I can become more like you and actually start to enjoy my hobby of following Arsenal rather than finding it a daily burden which only makes me angry and depressed.

Tell me how do you think we’ll get on against Hull? We’ve been terrible in our last two games haven’t we? I think we should play the kids – after all they obviously want it more look how well they played against Southampton.

Disgruntled Supporter

 

Dear Disgruntled Supporter

The result against Watford was a massive disappointment and yes our first half display was way below the standard we’ve come to expect but we were far from terrible in the second half. The Chelsea game hinged on one significant and appalling moment when Hector was assaulted, other than that there’s no shame to losing against the form team at their home ground – look at their results against the other big sides.

Today I expect us to bounce back in style. We seldom go on a losing run, we have a hugely experienced manager who understands how to deal with these situations and we have some of the best players in the world. I for one am excited to see how the lads respond – whoever he sends out.

As to which players Arsène should pick, well I’d leave that to him if I were you.

Stew

 

Dear Stew

But surely I have the right to an opinion? If I think Giroud should be dropped and Welbeck unleashed I have the right to say so.

Disgruntled Supporter

 

Dear Disgruntled Supporter

What rights human beings do and do not have is a fascinating philisophical topic into which I fear we do not have time to delve. The problems with us fans picking teams are manifold. We do not have the information on individual fitness levels, the long term plans for the season, the combinations the boss has planned and is developing, nor how players have performed in training. Above all our theories are meaningless because they never get tested nor can we ever be held to account for them, they are, by definition, fantasies.

Speculate away by all means but the problem is if I picked my first team it would be based on my personal favourites and I would in all probability end up starting with eighteen players including some who have retired.

Stew

 

Dear Stew

Sometimes I think you don’t take any of this seriously enough.

Disgruntled Supporter

 

Dear Disgruntled Supporter

Nailed it

Stew

44 Comments

Let’s Step Back To Go Forward ?

 

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Well, lets discuss the future of Arsenal, by future I mean next season. Let us say Wenger goes, we replace him with anyone from Max Allegri (we can all stay being AKB’s, oh what a conundrum for the WOB,), to little old Eddie Howe (not a chance in the world, unless its designed so his succession is not following the great man).

I’m told constantly that wouldn’t it be great just to break the cycle, even if it means taking one or two steps backwards so that we can then start taking forward steps again. Sounds reasonable, in fact sounds very reasonable, but often the great soundbites are that and only that, a soundbite, no substance, after all where is the extra £350M a week for the NHS, they are now looking to sell it off to American investors, good luck with that. Back to the taking a step or two back before stepping forward again. What could possibly go wrong?

Well lets think about that, what could go wrong? A couple of years ago one of the most noisy Arsenal blogs, LeGrove, claimed that Aston Villa were years ahead of AFC in their development, they were on the road to coming back after taking a step back, after the big Martin O’Neill gamble, the spending money they did not have, almost making the break through. The had brought all sorts of experts to run the club, or as LeGrove would call it, revolutionize the club, in fact they had even stolen one of Arsenal’s most highly thought of execs Tom Fox. Well it seems that state forces have repelled the Aston Villa revolution to such a degree that they are in the Championship, look like they will be in for at least another year. Crowds are dwindling, sponsorship has dried up, and only the BPL parachute payments give them an advantage over other clubs whose fans wanted to take a step back before charging forward.

Don’t get me wrong, Arsenal are no Aston Villa, despite what LeGrove would like you to believe, I do not see relegation on our horizon, just as I’ve never seen it in my lifetime, although we did in the mid 70’s come too damn close to it. We had taken our step back at that time, and yes we did take several, maybe even many steps forward, but 4 cup finals yielding one victory, our best players leaving for more money and more glory, big name signings were a buzz, but all too often they looked better in their wrapping paper than they did when we put them out on the pitch.

Of course eventually we got in the right manager at the right time, a couple of league titles, a few cups, and we at times it looked like we had taken that step forward, never to step back, but we got further and further from the league titles, and the cups were not enough, a bung seen the end of the manager, and I’m still not sure if our next manager was a step forward or a step back, I side on forward, as he gave us Dennis Bergkamp. Then we truly made a step forward, 3 more league titles(one unbeaten), a few cups, a big bright new shiny stadium, and there we were again, having taken a step back, our best players leaving for more money and more glory. Then we got a few nice new shiny big name signings, a couple of cups and an improving league position, but its not enough.

So what happens if our next manager is a step or two back, if we lose the £50m CL money, if we end up playing Thursday nights, or if we end up having midweeks off. Our two biggest named stars will have just 12 months left on their contracts this summer, will they might force their way out if we don’t make CL and Wenger is gone. If they do, how big a name manager, and how big a budget will we need to buy the players to not only replace them, but also the other players needed to take that mythical step forward, if we can’t or are unwilling to spend while in top 4, will we spend even enough to get us back to where we currently are.
Lets face it, we are nowhere in relation to the revenue streams Man Utd have, we don’t have their name either(yes ours is not bad, but they are the most successful English club by some distance in the last 25 years), and look at the problems they have had since their mega manager retired.
We also do not have owners who are willing to put in their own cash like Man City and Chelsea do.
Could the removal of Wenger finally give spurs the belief that would see them finish above us, you know once they do manage to finish above us, it might not be so easy to reverse it.
Liverpool have shown the transfer band that non regular top 4 clubs, with a big history(bigger than ours) work in, and have also shown that this bracket sees a cycle of taking a step or two back followed by stepping forward to where they had been, a spot that had their fans demanding a new manager, new signings, so they could take a step back before stepping forward again.
Liverpool were the be all and end all of English football for most of the 70’s and 80’s and early 90’s, league titles, european cups, fa cups, league cups, doubles all over the place, but are now looking at their 27th year without a league title.

But we are Arsenal, so it will be different for us, we, once Wenger is gone, will prosper like never before, leagues, champion leagues, fa cups, league cups, world club cups, will all be there for the taking. How do I know this, cos I’ve ambition, I won’t settle for any thing less, and I deserve it cos I chose to support Arsenal from when I was 3 years old, so I deserve it, oh and cos Arsenal match day tickets are the most expensive in the world. Or maybe we will become Aston Villa, doubt that very much, but we could very well become Tottenham Hotspurs, now that would be different.

eduardo792

32 Comments

Here We Are

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Not much to feel great about as an AFC supporter, that is if you allow an Arsenal win or loss to dictate your emotions and well being. But what if you don’t?  Very quickly we could be either 6th or 2nd, and what does that say about this years league? Perhaps during this time its important to not be swayed by the artificial authorities, that are in truth, just a relative viewpoint. Whats irritating is that the media pose as if they know everything that is about to unfold, yet most of their writings are speculative, aside of their agendas.
What if? What if the ref had noticed that Alonso’s arm smacked Hectors face before he headed the ball? Chelsea down to ten men, its a different game? What if Cech hadn’t have passed the ball to an ex Arsenal player, to added poison in to an already festering wound, what then? What if Mo,Xhaka or Ramsey were available, and of course Santi? Are Chelsea really that good and Arsenal not? Its way more complicated than that. The sad thing is as Arsenal fans fight among themselves and the media ravage the team and manager, City, Man Ure and the Spuds all are happy as the heat is off them? Of course the whole of history is made of ‘what if?
I think places like Positively Arsenal are really important at the moment, not just because of the flag raised to the winds of positivity, as in some respects it impossible to have the positive without the negative, the two rise together,even if in subtle forms. But what is really important is that PA makes a stand against destructive negativity that doesn’t really explain or have an understanding of whats going on. It leaves the door open to discussion, and we don’t have discussions much, generally these days. Everywhere we have spittle inflected absolutist rants, shallow soundbites that seem to get ingrained in peoples general thinking. The loud shouting is reflected in contemporary singers who think that hitting every note in the spectrum makes a great song. What do you think Ella? What do you think Billie? What do you think Frank?
Yesterday I saw a classic moment of AFTV: a disappointed  fan shouted- “every year we collapse in Feb/March”…as we can see, insubstantial evidence and pure cliché working its way into the minds of those with loud frothy opinions and somehow it becomes a fact. Well its not so, I don’t even need to drag up the counter evidence because if you really do follow AFC you know it already.
In many ways much of the world is caught up in hysteria and a lack of clear thinking at the moment, this isn’t so easy, as we aren’t even taught the most basic facts about the nature of reality at school, but shifts importance onto which psycho manipulated other people to die for an idea, and no frozen concept will ever capture what that idea really is.
Arsenal have to face some tough challenges next, Hull (no? the players have to get up for that one when they could well be feeling really low, and a loss to Hull its going to make things much worse, and its at home?), then Bayern away, again only a win or draw will appease the baying mob, then the horrible trip to Sutton, with the rest of the world wanting Hereford all over again, and the Arsenal to be utterly humiliated.  I cant recall a tougher challenge for Wenger and Co. as this unfolding And, suddenly before us we see the need for  a direction in belief and hope. I ask you the question what sort of support do the club need at the moment?
I think there’s much to discuss with AFC, as discussion leads us away from any kind of authoritarian debating-and in my opinion, I think that PA is the place for these discussions, a place where football can be talked about, and if places like this fold up then what next?
So thank you George and to the rest of you that there’s somewhere to go, at least for a while longer.
All the best to you all,
Mills
COYG!
55 Comments

Even Tottenham Is As Good As Arsenal

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Watching the foul against Bellerin in the 13th minute of Saturday’s match against Chelsea, my initial reaction was surely Atkinson, seeing it in real time, must have gotten it right; after all he is the senior FIFA ref in the PGMO. That was until I saw the young man crumpled on the turf oblivious to what was around him, clearly hurt and later diagnosed as concussed. Then came the slow realization that I and others was experiencing a classic replay of the worse of PGMO refereeing that has afflicted Arsenal and other unfancied clubs in the Premier league in the past ten years; the blatant use of excessive force, perpetuated in plain sight, had gone unpunished in favor of a big-moneyed team who, on this occasion, were allowed to score a decisive first goal. (The replays I speak of are the unpunished smashing of Eduardo and Aaron Ramsey in the not so recent past.)

While I had written two-blogs in the preceding weeks documenting, in my view, clear and convincing evidence of OR on the balance of probabilities proof of referee bias, it struck me I was still psychologically unprepared for Atkinson’s proclivity to rule against Arsenal and in favor of Chelsea. Thus, contrary to my initial desire to not belabor the point, I am impelled to provide additional evidence of referee bias to the jury of public opinion, many of whom, even after Saturday, remain unconvinced.

Initially, I was inclined to research whether the award or denial of penalties was tied to Arsenal’s disciplinary record with yellow and red cards. But my colleagues in the Positively Arsenal community were able to point to a study by someone at Untold Arsenal which indicated that during the Mike Riley era, of the constantly PL teams since 2007, no other team except Sunderland has received more red cards despite the narrative in the media that Arsenal is not physical enough. Even Stoke, that paragon of English toughness, has fewer red cards. What an amazing statistic; the least physical team in the PL is adjudged the dirtiest by the PGMO refs.

Not wanting to bore my readers by going over old ground, I decided to evaluate whether the award of penalties bore any relationship to the offensive statistics of the top-6 teams in the league. Fortunately for me, at least, since 2009 the highly rated whoscored.com have done a team by team analysis of every participant in the league compiling what they identify as key data and thereafter giving each team an overall ranking as well separate ranking based on their offensive and defensive statistics.

For this blog I focused on the offensive ranking of the top-6 over the past seven seasons and compared this with the average number of penalties awarded by the PGMOB. Despite being hardened and inured to the ability of PL refs to turn reality on its head, I was astonished by the results of the data. Since Mike Riley’s tenure, the PGMO have managed to make Tottenham the equal of Arsenal in creating penalties despite being ranked 5th offensively compared to the Gunners being ranked 3rd.

Arsenal Chelsea Livepool Man City Man Utd Tottenham
Off Rank 3 4 5 4 4 5
Shots pg 16.0 16.9 16.9 16.6 15.0 16.9
Shots OT pg 5.9 5.9 5.6 5.8 5.2 5.6
Dribbles pg 11.5 9.7 9.7 9.3 8.6 9.6
Fouled pg 11.3 11.6 11.0 9.9 10.7 11.0
Rating 7.10 7.0 7.0 7.7 7.03 7.0
Penalties 5 8 6 7 6 5

According to whoscored, Tottenham is inferior to Arsenal in all statistical categories except shots per game. Most notably they have 16.5% less dribbles per game, which is generally accepted as a metric highly correlated with getting penalties. But they manage to get practically the same amount of penalties on average.

More mind boggling is Liverpool being awarded on average more penalties than Arsenal (6 vs 5) despite being inferior in every category except Shots per game. They were equally dribble-shy as Tottenham.

Overall, despite being having the highest average offensive Rank and second highest Rating by whoscored, Arsenal has been awarded close to the lowest number of penalties of all the top-6 teams. Yet Arsenal has on average the highest number of Dribbles per game and is the next to Chelsea is the most fouled team. The irony of the Foul per game data is that the award of fouls is by the same referees who seem reluctant to award penalties.

Like the flagrant unpunished foul on Bellerin, the non-award of penalties to Arsenal by the PGMO defy the laws of the game and any statistical explanation. Contrast this to the more favorable treatment to all five other teams in the top-6 especially Tottenham and Liverpool.

Next time, after comparing the penalties against data with whoscored’s defensive rankings, hopefully we can arrive at some definitive conclusions.

93 Comments

Arsenal: Ambition Undone

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Good morning Positivistas,

And what a long time a week is in football ?

Of yesterday’s game, yesterday’s defeat for let us not pussy-foot about, I think it was the most comprehensive we have suffered for a long while against domestic competition. Of course we have lost games against PL opponents this season and last but not, in my view at least, when we have been beaten by a side playing better football. Sometimes we have lost to more efficient sides, sometimes we were genuinely unlucky, and sometimes our grief was self inflicted. But yesterday we played a Chelsea team who defended very well, organised and decisive. We played a team whose midfield buzzed (Kante) and created, and whose attacking threat (Costa and Hazard) was sharper on the day than our own. We played a team who are by a distance the best in the PL and came up short, in the end by their three goals to our one. Barring a collapse of Devon Loch proportions over the next few games we were beaten yesterday by the Premier League Champions of the 2016-2017 season.

There may of course and are reasons for the disparity on the day. Our many missing players v Chelsea’s almost injury free season, the early injury to Hector, of one or more of our players having a “stinker”, of refereeing decisions disadvantaging us, of the greater difficulty of engaging in domestic and European completion, and of the home sides’ access to unlimited funds et cetera. In other possible worlds other possible results can occur. And Arsene’s exclusion to the stands a further negative in determining the outcome yesterday – Discuss. And all these factors and caveats have a place in categorising the result and salving the discomfort.

One point I must make and underline is that many of our players performed to their limit yesterday. Their performances were by no means bad. For long periods of the game we had Chelsea pinned back. The third goal from Fabregas was the mid-point paradigm of “unlucky” and “self-inflicted” ( see above). Possession was in our favour. Chelsea at times wobbled precariously at 1-0 and at 2-0. We made four extremely good chances, one scored, to saved and the other a shade away from the post. To suggest the Ox did not play his heart out, or that Alex Iwobi did not at times shine is nonsense. Danny Welbeck’s late introduction and the sharpened edge he brought all over the pitch gave us a glimpse of what might have, been on another day.

Nevertheless I prefer to embrace defeat for what is was, a reverse against a superior team, as a more optimistic attitude than the choice of indifference, ignorance or sham adopted by many.

And the reason for my optimism is that we shall learn, become stronger, players will return and we shall recover our balance. The first stage of that will be over the next few days in our preparation for the Hull game. I heard this week that Arsene gave the players two days off after the Watford. I anticipate there will be no days off this week as we prepare for what is likely to be a pivotal fixture in our season, domestically and as we move toward the showdown in Munich. There is only hard work available now.

One small silver lining in this morning’s news is the recovery of Mo Elneny from his calf injury to play against Cameroon in the AFCON final at 7 pm tonight. A 44 year old keeper – whatever next ! Good luck to our Egyptian and we look forward to your return with a winner’s medal.

Enjoy your Sunday.

 

 

 

96 Comments

Arsenal Versus Chelsea: Avoidance Strategy

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So we go again. As the old cliché has it having fallen from a bicycle the best thing to do is leap back into the saddle and start pedalling. I’ve always taken a different approach where cycling mishap is concerned preferring to fling the painful contraption into the shed and sulk for a couple of weeks while I wait for the swelling to go down.

Arsène is quoted as saying that in his opinion it is crucial in the aftermath of defeat not to lose the following game. He says the effect on the confidence of a group of players can easily lead to a third consecutive loss and then a catastrophic slide in form. It might be seen as unfortunate therefore that we face the league leaders and clear title favourites away from home today in that very, not to be lost at all costs, follow up match. Couldn’t fate have given us an easier fixture? Watford at home perhaps?

The poet teaches us that for every action there is an opposite and equal reaction, that which goes up must come down, and it’s a funny old game. In this spirit of contradistinction might I tentatively suggest that playing what is in the common vernacular referred to as a six pointer might in fact be the best thing for us?

If our team has aspirations to achieve the very summit of its ambition then poking the champion’s elect sharply in the eye just when we appear to be flat out on the mat is precisely the tonic any self respecting doctor would order. What better way to bounce back and say yar boo sucks to the baying crowd of doubters and detractors?

Of course I would say that. Being no more than an armchair fan I see things in simple monochromatic terms and so defeat to The Hornets is solved at a stroke with victory at Chelsea. In fact even with my poor grasp of the mathematics I’d say that would still put us a point down on where we ought to be. Given, that is, if we’re being honest, most of us would have taken a win on Tuesday and a draw today.

Arsène Wenger, wily old campaigner that he is, hasn’t the luxury of such amateur knee jerk thinking. He plays the long game, focussing always on the next fixture while his great mind simultaneously plans for the season as a whole and the future of his club for years to come. Note that he didn’t say it is vital to win the game which follows a defeat. Merely that it is important not to lose. He is all about stabilising the rocking vessel and getting the thing back on its charted course. The only time the season was won or lost in a single game, at least in my memory, was at Anfield in ’89. Otherwise the title has always been a long war of attrition.

Having said all that I was unnaturally affected by the defeat this week. I suspect that with the depressing state of the world today, the probability of war, the fact of the victory of the forces of darkness within the liberal democracies, I use football as an escape from the depths, the daily dread with which I live. This is of course a ridiculous thing to do but there we are. I hope for a couple of hours of freedom from pessimism and gloom, a chance to pretend that a game is actually sufficiently important to distract me and maybe even cheer me up.

So when my team engages in the most abject first half of wayward, suicidal incompetence as I’ve seen on a football pitch in many years I experience sensations strangely similar to those of the cyclist previously alluded to who finds himself unexpectedly detached from his machine. The heroics of the second half were not quite enough and my ninety minutes of reality avoidance crashed around my ears, which, to stretch the metaphor to breaking point, haven’t stopped ringing since.

Of course I shouldn’t berate myself for using sport as escapism. Surely this is one of its central functions. Didn’t those poor benighted souls climb from the trenches during the unofficial Christmas truce of 1914 and enjoy a kick about in no man’s land? Then just like us once the game was over they returned to taking pot shots at one another.

The problem is, in days like these, when I find myself getting my knickers in a twist over a simple game of football I can’t shake the image of the band on the deck of the Titanic. I feel like Percy Cornelius Taylor agonising over a bum note as the icy water lapped against the end pin of his cello.

I am, I suppose, merely human and as fickle and two faced as every other member of that species. Win today and you’ll probably see me strolling down the side of the A367 with my hat worn at a jaunty angle and whistling a merry tune. Impending and present environmental and political disasters entirely forgotten for the moment as I bask in the vicarious pleasure of a victory I have neither earned nor from which shall I profit.

A funny old game indeed.

132 Comments

Arsenal: The Abandoned Orphan of Defeat

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Good Morning Positive Arsenal fans,

Or at least any of you with the energy to raise your head from the pillow and toward the internet after being kept awake by the squalling brat of defeat dumped on our collective footballing doorstep after 13 minutes last night. The nameless little bundle of noise and dribbling misery is quiet now, finally exhausted after bawling its lungs out all night. Inconsolable.

I have looked closely at the mite’s features and it reminds me of someone, but I cannot put my finger on the possible parentage ….. I am sure we all have ideas as to who is responsible ?

Of the game itself if I were structuring the match report like the action the first 300 words today would be random words and names, …. Curses, poor spelling, ……… Crossing out, Yelps of horror and groans of mighty despair,…………. culminating in my banging my head on the keyboard at Nacho’s insanely poor tumble. We all saw it and we know, and Arsene knows, and every player knows it was a bit of a shambles. Fair play to the Hornets though, they played their part with the custard pie that we ran into time after time.

Of the second half of the match review I am able to provide a smoother and organised writing performance, our players unrecognisable from just a few minutes before. I could even go so far as to say some of our players performed “well” in that second portion of the game. Alex Iwobi, in a 50th appearance I hope he forgets about very quickly, being the most obvious Arsenal player who showed us what he can do with the ball. Ultimately though the uplift of that improved effort, and the lifeline goal with MORE than half an hour to go, would lead to a fractured closing sentence of frustration. As occurred in the quarter final last season having allowed Watford a lead we just did not have the guile to get enough goals to retrieve the game. So near as Lucas’ late rocket hammered the bar, but so, so far. Lucas is another man whose late entry exonerates him from responsibility for the evening’s events. We were not, in my opinion, “unlucky” to lose. We were conceivably unlucky not to get a point, but that is as far as my footballing generosity will extend today.

Is it the midweek evening games, is it the rain, or the floodlights ? Whatever it is while last night did not finally torpedo our Premier League ambitions ( thanks to Liverpool and Sunlun) it put a further hole in the vessel, and the water is rising.

Of our visitors a hugely welcome result for under pressure manager Mazzarri whose touchline ranting suggests a man “on the edge”. Of their players Gomes had a good game. One of those large, hard-to-miss keepers who is either very good, or very, very bad and last night he shone. Janmaat also looks about five times the player who fled from Tyneside last season.

Right then, that is me just about done this morning. The little child is gently waking up and cooing happily in his or her cot (I have not looked yet but the smell suggests I should). I shall feed and nurture the little person over the next four days in order that by Saturday lunchtime my new charge  will be fit and able to take the field at the Bridge of Stamford, and perform as they are required to from 12.30 onwards to 2.30, with no lapses.

Enjoy your Wednesday and chin up.

 

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127 Comments

Arsenal Versus Watford: Back To Reality

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As all the excitement and furore of the cup draw fades into yesterdays chip paper and the giddy delight of our unexpected routing of the Saints dissipates, so normal service is resumed this evening. Arsenal in the Premier League, at home, expected to win.

The fear of a come down after a big cup victory may be founded in superstition or there could be some statistical evidence to support it. Did we lose after Ludogorets? After Slavia Prague? I can’t recall and it really doesn’t apply here anyway, given the number of expected changes it might as well be two different teams under discussion.

The ease and style with which we demolished Southampton might put a small pressure on the first teamers who will line up tonight, maybe somewhere in the back of their minds they’ll want to show that they too can turn on the style. I doubt it though. These are the kind of projections that amateur writers like me invent for players having no idea what they think on any subject. It is far more likely that being the professionals they are and given the squad based nature of modern football they do not draw the lines as clearly between first and second string.

Take, as an illustration, the form of our Gallic heartthrob. A lot of people like to pretend they know, for a fact, that Giroud responded to the pressure of an in form and free scoring Alexis and that made him play better. Competition for places is the popular mantra. I can far more readily believe that the careful management by Arsène Wenger to ensure his talismanic centre forward was fully rested after a long summer of competitive sport saw him return refreshed, reinvigorated, and simply more able to produce his best.

All this, of course, is simply speculation. None of us know a thing about what goes on in the minds of the players. Not a thing. Their press comments are pure PR and other than that we have nothing to go on. It’s why I get so riled when people tell me that players didn’t think they had to try, or assumed they could just turn up, or didn’t want it badly enough. It seems to me there are games where they’ve given their all and lost or drawn in the end and they’ve been written off in the above terms. On another day precisely the same effort and approach brings a late, late winner and they’re praised for their determination. Two identical performances but people judge only on results and make up the reasons.

So don’t tell me they’ll have a point to prove to our second string nor that Watford will be a push over. None of us can see into another man’s heart, none know his innermost thoughts so it’s best to let these blokes get out there and hoof the ball about a bit and just cheer them on.

I see some speculation that Danny Welbeck will start again tonight. This would be a huge shock. Arsène has the kind of squad he’s always wanted and has no need to risk players returning from long injuries. He has shown nothing but patience as the recently recovered feel their way back to fitness and sharpness, and I would be amazed if Welbeck’s ‘huge offensive potential’ is on display this evening.

Of those who started on Sunday there are a couple you’d expect to see again tonight and three others who made a strong case for inclusion, namely Theo, Lucas and Alex Oxlade-Chamberlain. It is ridiculous to try to rank one above the other, I’m aware of this, but it won’t stop me joining in the fun. Many people want to ignore Theo’s contribution and pretend he did nothing beyond the three touches which put the ball into the net. Likewise they want to elevate Alex’s performance in a more central role into a revelatory experience.

We all have our favourites and we all get excited by specific aspects of someone’s game, it’s human nature and there’s nothing wrong with that. My pick of the three is Lucas Perez. Pure prejudice on my part and in no way do I denigrate the others. I like the intelligence with which he plays the game and I particularly like players who bring out the best in those around them. It’s a gift Giroud has, Mesut has, and it’s one the greatest of them all had in a frightening abundance.

I could watch Lucas’ sublime pass to Danny Welbeck for his opening goal a thousand times and not tire of it. Players who make me gasp and smile are the ones I prize most of all. It’s why I like Aaron and Alex Iwobi, it’s why I loved Tomáš, and it’s why we all revere Dennis Bergkamp. Lucas Perez has the potential to enter such hallowed company. Will Arsène find space for him tonight? Somehow I still doubt it. I can’t see beyond Alexis, Giroud and Theo up front. Similarly it seems unlikely that the Aaron / Coquelin axis will be disrupted, no matter how good The Ox looked at the weekend. But then what do I know?

Make sure you get the dog walked early tonight as kick off is at 7:45. I’ve been down and pre-recorded my radio show so I’ll be here to share the excitement. If you’re at the match I trust you’ll be in good voice, if not I hope you find a good quality stream without the pain of the English commentary. That’s all from me, I’m off to check on my compost bin.

53 Comments

A 206% Increase in Penalties vs AFC Proves Bias

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The Refs Are Biased (Part 2)

To conclude my two-part series on referee bias, I have taken my inspiration from the great American philosopher and writer Mark Twain.

In my initial piece I was categorical. Based on penalties awarded:

“The unbiased data for the past 20 years is very clear; of all the top teams in the Premier League Arsenal is the least favoured team by Premier League officials.”

Yet there remains great skepticism and reluctance to accept the stone, cold logic of the data. Apparently there is an enduring belief that the referees are acting without bias, that they are honest arbiters doing a thankless job under difficult circumstances. Apparently we accept the gospel of the mainstream media (BBC) that the formation of the Professional Game Match Officials Board (PGMOB) in 2001 meant:

“….they will also be more accountable regarding their performances in matches.”

And lead to:

“….improving the overall standard of refereeing.”

In today’s final installment, I will demonstrate based on data of Penalties-Against (PA) that Arsenal is the most penalized among the top clubs in the Premier League and by a very wide margin. In making these decisions the PGMOB has been far from accountable and the promised improvements in the standard of refereeing has been a singular failure.

The data for the past 20 years confirm that the traditional top-four clubs in the premier league (AFC, CFC, LFC and MUFC) have the lowest PA compared to the rest. This is exemplified by the first 10 years of the Wenger era. It is logical that during this era when Arsenal and United dominated the League they would have the lowest PA, with MUFC marginally ahead within a relatively narrow range of 0.2 goals. LFC had the highest PA which makes sense since they have been less successful in winning titles although averaging 3rd in league position. Also note that during those first 10 years the top-four clubs all had less than the league average PA of 3.4. Below I will  demonstrate the significance of the latter information.

1st 10-Year League AFC MUFC LFC CFC
Total 684 16 14 30 24
Club Avg 3.4 1.6 1.4 3.0 2.4

In the second 10-years was a 38% increase in penalties awarded by the referees compared to the first 10. Amazingly, not only did Arsenal experience 206% increase in penalties awarded against the club but the average number of penalties was higher than the average for all clubs in the premier league, 4.9 vs 4.7.

2nd 10-Year League AFC MUFC LFC CFC
Total 943 49 30 40 30
Club Avg 4.7 4.9 3 4 3

Meanwhile the percentage increase in PAs for all other clubs was substantially less.

1st vs 2nd 10-Year League AFC MUFC LFC CFC
Increase 1.3 3.3 1.6 1.0 1.2
% Increase 38% 206% 143% 33% 66%

The second greatest increase was for United at 143%. But at 3-against they are well within the league average. In the context of refereeing, it is apparent in the post-Ferguson era the officials now have a greater willingness to make penalty calls against them, when before they seem to be in abject fear of the United boss. For those who think this is merely an opinion, note in Ferguson’s last year (12/13) on his way to the title, the refs awarded zero penalties against United. In a team with two notoriously physical central defenders, Vidic and Ferdinand, who were arguably past their best, this was an amazing statistical achievement.

Back to the main point. According to the unbiased data, PL referees over the past 10 years found AFC to be not only the worst of all the traditional top-four clubs in penalty-area defending but that it had been surpassed by LFC, a club whose average league position declined from 3rd in the first 10 years to 5th in the second 10. In total, Liverpool averaged only 1 more PA vs 2.3 more for the Gunners, a 130% difference.  Hello!

1st vs 2nd 10-Year League AFC MUFC LFC CFC
Increase 1.3 3.3 1.6 1.0 1.2
% Increase 38% 206% 143% 33% 66%

Yet over the past 10 seasons, based on mean averages, in every statistical category, except for Draws (D) and Goals Against (GA), Liverpool was inferior to Arsenal.

Pos W D L F A GD Points
AFC 3 21 10 7 71 39 32 73
LFC 5 19 10 9 66 39 26 67

Given AFC’s general league superiority over LFC, it defies any statistical justification for the referees to award 130% more PAs against the Gunners compared to the Merseysiders.

Furthermore, if the referees are calling 38% more penalties then over the long term it should be distributed according to the league ranking of the club, as it was in the first 10 years. That is an iron-law of statistics. If not there is evidence of clear bias.

As someone with a little knowledge of how the federal government measures fair lending violations against protected classes in the USA, a prima facie case could be made of “disparate treatment” of Arsenal by the PGMOB. Many banks and lending institutions have been heavily fined and sanctioned for such apparent bias. Who holds the PGMOB accountable?

Let me take this analysis a little further. If we expand the group of top-clubs to five, to accommodate the rise of Manchester City who were basically a yo-yo club until the advent of external money in 2006 allowing them make massive spending on new players. Virtually overnight they became a top club in the premier league and the 3rd best in penalty-area defending, overhauling Arsenal. Is it justifiable?

2nd 10-Year League AFC MUFC LFC CFC MCFC
Total 943 49 30 40 30 33
Club Avg 4.7 4.9 3.0 4.0 3.0 3.3

Skeptics and critics of my findings in Part I, that they were getting more favorable treatment than AFC in penalties-for, argued that City simply had better attackers. Yet for much of those years a number of their offensive-players were ex-Arsenal such as Adebayor and Nasri and they had managers like Hughes and Mancini who were arguably more conservative than Arsene Wenger. Yet they averaged 1 penalty more, 6.4 vs 5.4.

In the PA department the difference was even greater. Within 10 years they averaged 3.3 vs Arsenal’s 4.9, a 1.6 goal difference. Were their defenders vastly superior to Arsenal’s, sufficient to gain a significant edge in penalty area defending?

Au contraire. Many of those years among their defenders were ex-Arsenal such as Kolo Toure, Gael Clichy and Bacary Sagna. So in retrospect the personnel was relatively similar. Furthermore, in the last three years under review they were managed by Pellegrini who was arguably as attacking in team setup as Arsene Wenger. Yet since 2006, there is only one season when they had more PAs than Arsenal.

In comparing the PAs conceded by both clubs in the past 10 years, I was struck by the data for 15/16 season.  The referees only awarded one penalty against them despite their having disasters-in-waiting such as Mangala, Otamendi and Demichelis as central defenders. Collectively they were poor, conceding 41 goals compared to Arsenal’s 36. My recollection was of them mis-tackling and clumping opponents in their own box and the PGMOB letting them get away with it. Yet both teams ended up with equal number of penalties against. Can’t stop Shaking My Head (SMH).

Year AFC MCFC
15/16 1 1
14/15 3 4
13/14 6 1
12/13 6 2
11/12 4 3
10/11 9 4
09/10 7 7
08/09 5 4
07/08 5 4
06/07 3 3

In analyzing the data it is significant to note for most of the last 10 years, premier league officials have been under the leadership of Mike Riley (the main actor in ensuring Arsenal’s loss in Game 50), in his capacity as manager of the PGMOB. While Riley’s bias in Game 50 was manifest, he is no longer a referee and we have no available evidence to prove how his past bias currently affects his subordinates. However what is evident from the data is institutionally they are increasingly biased towards the big-spending clubs. As I demonstrated in Part I the big money clubs, except Arsenal, are increasingly and constantly getting the Penalties-For at the expense of the smaller clubs.

“Gone are the days when a mid-table team, between 1997 and 2006, would be ranked first in penalties awarded; such as Southampton (97/98), Middlesbrough (99/00), Newcastle (00/01, 01/02 and 03/04) and Crystal Palace (04/05).”

Seemingly the refs have consciously or sub-consciously internalized the message that, to succeed in the PGMOB, one must favor the big clubs which, except for Leicester in 15/16, now permanently monopolize the top-positions in the league. What is rarely discussed in the mainstream media  is the prime reason for the PGMOB’s establishment was to make refereeing a lucrative full-time occupation. According to the BBC report in 2001, previously referenced, former FIFA referee Roger Milford who advocated the PGMOB stated:

“There are footballers out there earning £20,000 to £30,000 a week – and that is at the bottom end of the scale,”

“So referees deserve to earn the sums being talked about.”

If a lucrative career is the prime driver of a full-time referee then it is consistent with human nature to have little desire to make seemingly controversial decisions against a big-moneyed club which could potentially be a career ender.

That would explain why, in last week’s game between Chelsea and Hull,  when the underdogs were already one goal up, there was arguably a clear case for a penalty against the Blues which would have given them a crucial two-goal advantage. This appeal was vigorously waived off by the referee. It may also explain why the referee studiously ignored the foul by Chelsea in the build-up to their first goal.

Is it any wonder we rarely see any big upsets of the big boys by the lower level teams especially in the second-half of the seasons? Does this explain why there are reports of a significant fall off in attendance and viewership of premier league matches especially those involving mid and lower-level teams? Why attend or give these matches any attention when the results are already pre-ordained?

On the basis of the evident disparate treatment of Arsenal by the refs when it comes to penalties and moreso an increasingly systemic bias against the smaller clubs, I am forced to revise my assessment of the chances of Arsenal overhauling Chelsea in the run-in for the title. When I did my first An Open Letter to the Arsenal First Team blog, I estimated a 50:50 chance which meant it was uncertain and unpredictable statistically. Now I am convinced it ranges between 5%-10% which, should it happen, would make it miracle. My eyes have now turn to the cups as our most realistic chance of any silverware.

PS: Thanks to usamazaka at Positively Arsenal who provided the source information on the founding of the PGMOB.

Postscipt

A legitimate question was asked in the comments section of this blog why I excluded Spurs from the analysis. Because they were never a consistently top-four team I eliminated them so as to compare like-with-like between the 1st and 2nd-10 years. To eliminate any suspicion that the data is being fudged to prove a point, below is the PA numbers for THFC:

Total Avg
1st -10 years 42 4.2
2nd – 10 years 44 4.4

The striking thing is, being a markedly inferior team compared to Arsenal, never ever exceeding AFC in league position for the past 20 years, we have a remarkable statistic that for the past 10 years they had less PA vs Arsenal; 44 compared to 49.

I rest my case your honor.

 

39 Comments

Arsenal breeze at St Mary’s

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Maidin mhaith Positivistas,

That was easy on the eye eh ? All the more so because, at 5.30 yesterday evening I rather fancied we were in for (another) battle at St Mary’s and I would have signed the form accepting the draw with no prompting. Saints riding on a wave of achievement after their Anfield win and a solid home record. Arsene choosing to rest a couple of our bigger guns. It looked “difficult”. After about ten minutes I thought both sides had started well, speedy movement and pass well struck. Both looking for that “opening” and important first goal. And yet by the 36th minute the contest was over. It was damage-control from the hosts in the second half and even that they fell down on toward the end. 5-0 for goodness sake, and five goals with Giroud at the shops, Ozil God knows where and Sanchez only allowed 25 minutes. By 7.20 I had watched THE most one sided game we have engaged in since squashing Basel.

Ultimately it is players, and what they do and don’t do individually and collectively, that decide games. Our youngsters at St Mary’s were Ainsley, Jeff and Rob all enjoyed excellent evenings. Did any of them put a foot wrong al evening ? Well if they did they immediately chased back and put the error right. It probably should not be but the job did Jeff the middle of the park was a revelation. For a youngster ( he just turned 19 last week) it was a confident, strong performance. I had seen in his occasional other games on the wings he has a good touch and a knack of finding a spare yard of space. To manage that in a crowded midfield as he did for 72 minutes is much more of a challenge, and I see he can tackle. I have no idea what Arsene has in mind for Jeff, probably a season on loan, but he is already an interesting player, a proverbial football work in progress. With a few more games under his belt, a little more confidence in his stride, he could be a mighty asset. We shall see.

Having extolled the excellence of Reine-Adelaide picking out other notable contributions in such a crushing win is difficult. The Ox definitely deserves praise for a creative midfield effort that cut Saints to shreds all evening. Danny’s opening goals announced his holiday is over and he is back in town and pressing for a start. I really enjoyed Lucas and his 90 minutes of quality last night, not just a finisher but some lovely link play and touches in the final third. As I said elsewhere Lucas would walk into all but one or two PL sides at the moment. Mustafi had a good evening. The appropriate word for the German is influential.

I cannot say much in Saints’ defence. As one of the commentators said last night perhaps they can only cope with one Cup per season. I appreciate they had injury problems and needed to rotate but the team that performed so well against us at the Ems in the League Cup was not so different from the players Puel had available last night. Yochida, Bertrand, Redmond and Tadic were sat on their bench – and did Fraser Foster really need a weekend off ? The “fatigue” suffered by goalkeepers is a purely second decade of the 21st century phenomenon. I imagine, despite their good week, the home fans felt a bit let down by the thrashing.

Just a short break until we take on Watford on Tuesday. I think almost, bar Santi, Arsene has a full squad to choose from. A few dilemmas perhaps ?

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Enjoy Sunday!