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Arsenal Versus Preston North End: The Decider

Posted by steww on January 7, 2017 in All Posts

H and SV

The Clash of the Invincibles takes place at historic Deepdale this evening. Quite rightly held back until the less significant fixtures have finished, this is the unquestioned jewel of the third round. A meeting of two venerable clubs, both famous for their contributions to the English game and both special for achieving unbeaten success at the pinnacle of the league.

Their fortunes have varied in recent years. Arsenal have become a byword for consistency. While other clubs have risen and fallen, enjoying their moments in the limelight, North London’s pre-eminent sporting establishment has been an ever present in the heady atmosphere of the upper echelons of top class football.

Preston North End have been quietly working their way back towards the top flight. Their rise from the fourth to second tier has been achieved in a steady fashion winning the promotion as champions twice in four years and finishing in the top five of League One (and Championship after it’s name change in 2004) no less than five times. This season they’re sitting in eleventh place having won ten, lost nine and drawn six.

What can we expect from them? Reading a Preston forum their fans seem to think Arsène is either arrogantly resting players or frightened his pampered softies will be scared of getting a kicking from the North End midfield. How refreshing such forward thinking attitudes are still prevalent in the modern game. In fairness most of them were bemoaning the absence of Sanchez, feeling deprived of witnessing at first hand one of the game’s true greats. This is odd when you consider that the real treat they are being deprived of is the sight of Mesut Özil. I suppose this just shows the influence the media have on the opinions of fans.

We are of course anything but arrogant and entirely aware of the possibilities for a lower division team to overturn the odds and beat one of the nations greatest ever clubs. Cup competitions thrive on such tales. Needless to say it is a romance we as Arsenal fans indulge in only when someone else is on the receiving end. My only concern is whether the side will gel. We all know the reserves are good enough individually but we saw against Southampton in the League cup how a patched together eleven can lack understanding and cohesion, but I don’t expect a repetition today.

I await the team sheet with interest. We know who won’t be there but the question is who steps up? Everyone assumes a Xhaka Ramsey central partnership but how about the forward line? I really want to see more of Lucas Perez but he is little bit ankle nobbled or something. I hope it isn’t serious and he gets to play – ideally alongside Olivier Giroud.

While it’s true that Giroud almost single handedly dragged us back into contention on Tuesday and could have taken a twenty minute naked lap of honour as far as I’m concerned so herculean were his efforts, it was his partnership with Perez that most caught the eye.

It was almost an old fashioned forward pairing, with the big guy winning the ball and the smaller bloke running off him. That is the kind of set up even footballing illiterates like me can understand. Of course the skill set of our number twelve is way in advance of the old big bruising centre forwards who used mainly to provide the knock downs on which their trickster little cohorts would feed. However I don’t want to get too side tracked into talking about players as I usually end up wasting words on guys who then don’t even make the bench.

For romantics the FA Cup got off to the worst possible start yesterday with the oil rich money burners flattening plucky little West Ham like a steam roller taking on a bag of Maltesers. It was clear from the team sheet that Man City were not going to mess about and I wasn’t surprised Guardiola took the tie so seriously – even fielding a proper keeper for a change.

With so many so called top managers and so many of the world’s best players crammed into the Premier league and with all the rabid, out of control fan bases demanding the league title as a minimum price for their support, the FA Cup has taken on ever greater significance. As long as only one team can finish first the scrabble to get the second most important crown in English football becomes increasingly frantic. I don’t anticipate the giant killings of yore, the tournament is simply too important to the top clubs to risk making a bollocks of their first round.

This just means getting to Wembley will be that little bit harder for Arsenal this season, but the journey will be all the more enjoyable for it. I hope we start today with an emphatic victory to make the pundits weep but most of all I just want us to win without any more injuries. Please.

If you’re making your way to the Clash of the Invincibles I wish you a safe journey. I’ll be schooling my nephew in the significance of his first ever FA Cup tie, safe and warm by the radiator. And for those Preston fans mourning the absence of a certain sulky Chilean – chin up – this may actually be the day you get to tell your grandchildren about. The day you saw Alex Iwobi in the flesh.

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Arsenal Mid-Term: The Good, The Bad and The Ugly

Posted by shotta_gooner on January 5, 2017 in All Posts

goodbadugly_147pyxurz

On the eve of this, my mid-season review of AFC’s performance in the Premier League, the prevailing mood in the media and blogsphere is of pessimism and despair.  Arsenal had dramatically snatched a draw after falling behind 0-3 down to Bournemouth. Instead of joy and optimism that in 20 minutes the club had turned around a seemingly hopeless situation to salvage a point, the main theme was the Gunners was out of the title race as Chelsea look certain to open a 11 point lead.

After retrieving a three-goal deficit, it’s usual for some euphoria but that’s noticeable by its absence this morning. Anyone who had lingering hopes of the title has surely had them dispelled by now? It’s a draw which feels like a defeat or draw when so often a comeback of that magnitude feels like a victory.   – ACLF

All in all a bad night for Arsenal, and a bad night for Arsene Wenger who, despite having the biggest, deepest squad he’s had in years, sees yet another season unfolding in pretty familiar fashion. The position we’re in is the same, the way we drop points is the same, the failings are consistent. – Arseblog

RIP Arsenal’s season. – 7amkickoff

Nothing sums up Wenger more perfectly than the game last night. All the chickens came home to roost as we tapped out of the title race and handed the momentum to proper managers. –le-grove

Based on Chelsea’s subsequent loss to Spurs this Wednesday evening, I can confidently predict that there will be a dramatic u-turn in the in the tone of these blogs by Thursday. Safe to say the euphoria of Chelsea failing to break Arsenal’s record of 14 straight PL wins will convince most of these fine bloggers that the 8 point gap is no longer insurmountable. Within 24-hours an impregnable Chelsea lead on Wednesday morning will become surpass able on Thursday.

Once again readers of PA will get a perfect lesson in how the majority, not all, of Arsenal bloggers, act in a fashion similar to the mainstream media, preying on the emotions of the Arsenal fans by using a short term setback to promote fear that Arsenal and Arsene Wenger have failed in their title bid. Mark you, it still early January with practically half a season to go. Most importantly, these conclusions are being drawn without presenting the unbiased data to support their point of view.

As part of my mission to educate myself and inform my readers about the importance of the unbiased data in making sense of football (as well as of politics and economics), in my very first blog at the start of this season, based on the most recent 8 years of PL data, I predicted the following 2016/17 league positions:

My Prediction Club Time Series Projection
1st Man United 2.88
2nd Man City 3.38
3rd Arsenal 3.38
4th Chelsea 3.63
5th Tottenham 5:00
6th Liverpool 5.75

Just a reminder, for comparison’s sake, the BBC pundits made the following forecast:

Prediction Club
1st Man City
2nd Man United
3rd Chelsea
4th Arsenal
5th Tottenham
6th Liverpool
7th Leicester

The ESPN experts were singing from the same hymn book:

Prediction Club
1st Man City
2nd Man United
3rd Chelsea
4th Arsenal
5th Tottenham
6th Liverpool

After exactly 19 games the Premier League table top-6 reads as follows:

Clubs W D L F A GD Points
Chelsea 16 1 2 42 13 29 49
Liverpool 13 4 2 46 21 25 43
Arsenal 12 4 3 41 19 22 40
Tottenham Hotspur 11 6 2 37 14 23 39
Manchester City 12 3 4 39 21 18 39
Manchester United 10 6 3 29 19 10 36
Leicester City* 5 5 9 24 31 -7 20
Crystal Palace* 4 4 11 29 35 -6 16

Leicester City and Crystal Palace listed for illustrative purposes only.

Contrary to all prior projections Chelsea and Liverpool are sitting atop the table in 1st and 2nd positions respectively. In contrast, Manchester City,  the pundits most favored team because of their spending power and brand new celebrity manager, is sitting 5th instead of  their projected 1st. Below them in 6th is United, the second most favored team of both BBC and ESPN journos. Yours truly is similarly off the pace as my prediction was for United and City to be 1st and 2nd respectively. Where I differ from the mainstream pundits is my minimum expectation of Arsenal coming 3rd. Most of the so-called experts have Arsenal at 4th.

Even though half-way through the season and the short-term results may look bleak, I stand by my earlier prediction based on the 20 year history of Arsene Wenger as manager:

  • Arsenal has finished an average of 3rd; no other club except Manchester United has a better average.

  • No other team has a better absolute deviation from the mean than Arsenal at 0.985, meaning that on the average the club’s position will deviate by less than 1. United is the next best at 1.28.

  • All other big -6 team have in 20 years finished lower than Arsenal; City fell away to as low as 47th, way down into the 3rd

  • Arsenal has never finished less than 4th.

  • Arsenal has never finished below Tottenham.

By comparing the performance of each top-6 club midseason this year to 2015-16, it is evident  Arsenal remains the most consistent despite the absence since last October, due to injury, of  arguably its most important player, Santi Cazorla. I have provided four years of data to demonstrate that Arsenal averages over 2.09 points per game (ppg) with Santi playing in comparison to a team average of 1.92 ppg. Seven games with Santi this season yielded a ppg of 2.7, nine games without Santi up to early December and the ppg dropped to 1.3, a fall of more than 50%.

Percentage Change in Key Performance Data Mid Season 2016 vs 2015

Clubs W D L F A GD Points
Chelsea 220% -80% -78% 83% -55% 583% 145%
Liverpool 63% -33% -60% 109% -5% n/a 43%
Arsenal 0 33% -25% 24% 6% 47% 3%
Tottenham Hotspur 18% -33% 0% 11% -7% 22% 10%
Manchester City 8% 0% -25% 5% 5% 6% 8%
Manchester United 25% 0% -40% 32% 19% 67% 20%
Leicester City* -55% -17% 350% -35% 24% -158% -49%
Crystal Palace* -56% 0% 83% 26% 119% -186% -48%

Leicester City and Crystal Palace listed for illustrative purposes only.

Main takeaways from the table on a club by club basis:

Chelsea:

  1. Have made dramatic changes in all the key data categories resulting in a 145% improvement in their points haul.
  2. Have significantly improved in their scoring with 83% more Goals For as well as in their defending with 55% less Goals Against, the net result being a fantastic 583% improvement in Goal Difference.
  3. The challenge for Chelsea is this sort of exponential improvement is almost statistically impossible to sustain. The law of diminishing returns begin to set in after an optimal level has been reached. Furthermore, it is inevitable that over time competing teams will find ways to narrow the differences that have given Chelsea such a dramatic superiority in recent months.
  4. Long winning streaks are correlated with title-winning teams as evident from the data previously presented of Arsenal’s winning campaigns. There is however one major exception, i.e. Liverpool in 2014-15 who had an 11-game unbeaten run but failed to win the title after 2 grievous losses in the last month of the campaign.

Liverpool

  1. Apart from a 109% improvement in Goals For, their improvements in the various categories have been relatively less dramatic than Chelsea.
  2. A 43% year-on-year improvement in Points, while two-thirds less than Chelsea, is still significant. Can this level be sustained statistically?

Arsenal

  1. Only club whose points haul has remained substantially the same, a mere 3% improvement.
  2. Measureable improvements have been made in both Goals For and Goals Against. As a result goal difference has improved by 45%, the second highest of the clubs.
  3. Consistent marginal improvements are more sustainable over time in any physical endeavor. It is well known that Arsenal title challenges have in recent years been shot by mid-season injuries to key players. Should such injuries repeat themselves Arsenal will be struggle to earn more Wins and less Draws/Losses to sustain a serious title challenge.

As the table above illustrates consistency is not easy to sustain in the football, at least not in the Premier League. One year ago Crystal Palace and manager Alan Pardew were the toast of the town. Instead of 5th in the League they now have 48% less in points, fighting relegation at 17th place with Pardew sacked. Similarly, Leicester City, the defending champions were the miracle club, the so-called proof that a non-fashionable club can have sustained success amongst the big boys. Today they are in 16th position, recording a significant decline in all the data categories with 49% less points than last year. And we are told Claudio Ranieri is a genius.

Wenger’s consistency is easily disparaged; bloggers are quick to write him off at the first setback. The recent draw at Bournemouth was evidently due to having to play a team with barely 48-hours recuperation time from a prior demanding physical engagement, at least 24 hours less than the optimum time according to the scientific studies, a fact none of the bloggers quoted above gave any attention to.

It bears repeating. Woe to the pundits and bloggers who write-off Arsene Wenger despite 20 years of unbiased data showing a remarkable consistency by him as manager of the football club.

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Arsenal : Verve and Vim at the Vitality

Posted by anicoll5 on January 4, 2017 in All Posts

toddler-tantrums

Sawatdii Postitive Arsenal fans,

Well that was quite an evening wasn’t it ? The ffffuuuullll range of fan experience over exactly 96 minutes, from mild discomfort, to eye rolling pain, abject horror, to fluttering but faint hope, and capped by monstrous relief at a finale in which we gained a point and retrieved our reputation as a tough team to beat. Exhausting.

Of the game itself I find myself struggling to order my thoughts even twelve hours later. In spite of what I have heard from AW we actually started the game, for the opening five minutes, really well and pinged the ball about in the Cherries’ half with them barely able to touch it.

Thereafter, and not surprisingly with the home side so willing to run and fight for the ball, the pendulum swung to even the contest, with possession shared with the home side and both teams on the front foot. It was a very fast game in the sense that players had very little time to dwell on the ball and both sides moved it quickly from end to end.

Then came the Bournemouth opener ! Not exactly out of the blue but the manner in which Hector was undone was slightly embarrassing, most uncharacteristic for the player. Whether he was a) tired b) unwell/unfit or c) he, Mustafi and Ramsey were on totally different pages of the defensive playbook at the time or d) a combination of a)+b)+c) I don’t know. Nice finish by Daniels nevertheless.

Like me I am sure you thought “no bother”, a goal down, a mere blip on the road to final victory. You could sense however we were a little stunned by the setback. Players looking a one another, shouting, shrugging, pointing. Not a good picture as the home crowd roared their approval of our obvious discomfort.

Then we had a bit of a second “cock-up”, to use the technical sporting term, with an attack broken down, Le Coq’s professional foul ignored/waived on by Oliver and Xhaka clumping Fraser. The evening took on a darker hue. I pondered whether my singling out of Granit and Bellerin for their good contribution against Palace had cursed them this evening ! Its all about me – dyasee!

After that second goal the  dissent among Arsenal players rose to fever pitch, Sanchez was shouting at everyone, Ramsey shouted at Alexis, Larry was waving like a windmill in frustration, everyone was shouting at Iwobi, Mustafi was shouting at Hector, Hector was sheepish and staring off into space et cetera. This was not “pashun” this was just bloody unprofessional.

The outcome of this abominable mass toddler tantrum was that for the remainder of the first half we played very little football, passes went astray, our use of the dead ball was excruciating and we looked at no time like testing Boruc with an actual “shot” or a “header”.

The THIRD GOAL for the home side was an event of such exquisite torture I have no words to describe it – I shall move on.

And yet the third goal, finally, managed raise something in us. Was it pride ? Suddenly the spaces we could play in got a little wider, the passes were clipped a little quicker to feet. The Ox’s suddenly seemed to have the measure of Fraser and Perez’s introduction gave out attach a sharpness in contrast to the earlier dull thud. Did our opponents foolishly switch off thinking the job done ? Did our opponents themselves run out of energy having torn into us throughout the contest ?

I dunno – From the 70th minute and that first goal however I was certain we would get something out of the game and so it proved. The petulance among the players was replaced by smooth passing and movement, that second goal from Perez was a superb strike. Arsenal football team were back inaction, not 11 individuals, each with his own agenda. And that man Larry ……… probably his scruffiest  goal in a long time but my goodness did it raise my spirits. The job was done, the point gathered. A draw snatched in unlikely circumstances against difficult opponents. Not exactly the result we wanted, and perhaps needed, but a lesson learned by the players.

I shall leave it there – enjoy your lengthy break until Proud Preston.

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Arsenal Versus Bournemouth: Something Very Arsenal

Posted by steww on January 3, 2017 in All Posts

Olivier-Giroud

I’ve tried to gain inspiration for today’s preview from the deluge of football which has swamped us around the turning of the year. Unfortunately as I don’t care about the other teams involved in these fixtures all I got for my troubles was a crick in the neck from trying to do other things while simultaneously keeping an eye on matches I wouldn’t normally condescend to acknowledge.

Of course it’s disingenuous to suggest that the results of our rivals have no impact on our season. The final league positions are decided by an holistic interweaving of results each affecting the others in a complex web of possibilities. That wasn’t why I watched Middlesbrough though. Not really. I watched them simply because Calum was playing and I’m intrigued to see if I can glean anything from his performances.

After Francis Coquelin’s inspired return from the barren wastes of the loan wilderness any Arsenal player currently honing their craft on alien pitches has that delicious potential to become an Emirates based game changer. The problem I have with watching an entire match just to enjoy the contribution of one player is the same as watching the Welsh international team. I’m simply not invested in the result nor the contest as a whole. One doesn’t enjoy a gourmet meal by lifting a single ingredient onto one’s fork and abstaining from the rest.

Not that ‘boro or Wales provided cordon bleu cookery, far from it, but I hope my point still stands. The gastronomic delight du jour in the Arsenal kitchen has been cooked up of course by our Gallic heartthrob. He has been promising a goal of such superlative defying elegant ostentation ever since he joined us. Older readers may remember February of twenty thirteen when I was moved to write these words:

“Out of absolutely nowhere and without bothering to so much as take a touch never mind think about a pass, Olivier Giroud, still some thirty yards from goal and near the touchline unleashed a terrifying dipping shot which would have snapped the Mordor keeper in half if it had hit him. OK so the shot missed the target by a fraction, Arsene got off the bench and signalled his displeasure, the commentators pointed out how well placed Ramsay was and we came home with a well earned point but no more.

But I was captivated by that moment. The audacity, the confidence, the technique. Name three other attributes you want more in your centre forward. Go on. Name them.

But of course the goals started to come. He opened his account against Coventry in the widdley diddley cup and gave us this fantastic quote “This goal has taken the pressure off me. It’s done, I have my first goal. But it has to be the start of a beautiful adventure.” And I started to love him just a little bit.

“But it has to be the start of a beautiful adventure.” Perfect. I’ve been accused of being a bit of a romantic where football is concerned and maybe that is true but like Larry I believe a player’s career and relationship with us should be just that. Wasn’t Thierry’s Arsenal career a beautiful adventure? How else would you describe it? I like that bit of poetry in Giroud’s make up. It complements his physical prowess rather neatly.”

What excited then me was the sense of adventure and invention which all great players have and which provides the moments we love and cherish, briefly lending the epithet ‘beautiful game’ a ring of truth. I think Giroud’s subsequent contribution to the side has vindicated my optimism. The blend of the sublime with an obvious physicality has been present in many of his goals and his vital assists.

His misfortune was to be born into an era dominated by over reaction and the promotion of idiocy which the internet has inadvertently spawned. Had he played in earlier times he’d have been rightly lauded for the player he has always been and not just for one moment of brilliance.

Today the players will need to find other attributes to compliment the skill and speed of their natural game. With an extremely ill timed flu bug working through the camp, injuries still robbing some players of match sharpness, others of any fitness at all, Elneny departing for international duty, and having played just the day before yesterday, stamina and determination will matter as much as fluency and improvisation.

Bournemouth have won and lost three each of their previous six games and are one of those sides I find difficult to predict. They don’t strike me as naturally suited to the suffocating defensive tactics beloved of many of our opponents nor quite good enough to go toe to toe in a straight footballing contest with us. But then, neither did Everton.

The Cherries’ best result was probably the four three over Liverpool who are enjoying their best form for a few years. There was also the six they stuck past Hull but then they’ve contrived to lose to Burnley, Sunderland, Stoke, and West Ham so pick the bones out of that lot. As I say, unpredictable, up and down; they are capable of flowing football and abject defending and their best hope will be our lack of fully fit players. They’ve had one day longer to recover since an away win at Swansea. Precious little you might say but when we’re talking of a four day period it is significant nonetheless.

I’ll settle for a win however achieved but I wouldn’t say no to another slice of scrumptious footballing cuisine from the man who stole my heart over four years ago. As I said back then “A man who should have taken a season to win me round had me in that one sparkling moment of near brilliance back in August. There’s just something very Arsenal about him.”

 

 

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Arsenal – Gli scioperi scorpione*

Posted by anicoll5 on January 2, 2017 in All Posts

olivier-giroud-769566

Good morning Positives,

Palace swept away with little difficulty yesterday and one of those relatively rare occasions when we just about controlled the game from first to last and collected the three points without ever really needing to get into flat-out, handbrake off mode. Palace were a sorry sight yesterday, with a look of the “Championship” about them.

The mainstream media this morning are noisily salivating over Larry’s goal, and so they should. Our Frenchman has never let his head drop once in what is now a long Arsenal career, 200+ appearances. Every game he is in the fight, from first minute to final whistle. The embodiment of POSITIVE Arsenal. After a half season in which he has spent more time on the bench than he would like it is massively to his credit that in the past two games he has scored decisive goals. He is receiving a little of the acclaim his unrelenting effort deserves. He seemed much more relaxed yesterday, much happier, smiling. It may purely be impression on my part but happy footballers tend to be better footballers. Clearly I do not like to put too much down to our chance pre-Christmas encounter on the Selfridges’ escalator but …. well ….. just co-incidence and all that.

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Elsewhere about the pitch Hector put in a mighty 90 minutes and one game the boy will get the two or three goals his incisive attacking and shooting deserves. I was pleased too with Granit Xhaka who, now four games as a starter, who seems more composed on the ball, tackles more cleanly, and more confident generally. I sense he has got his head around the Premier League fully now, in particular in how physical he can be and reading the referee. An attractive contribution from Lucas Perez too, commendably no nonsense as he flattened Zaha on one occasion. I would like to see more of the flinty Spaniard. And did we “miss” Ozil ? Not at all, although no doubt the German would have enjoyed his afternoon against Sam’s feeble fumblers.

On the topic of Zaha I thought referee Andre Marriner played a blinder by the way, totally neutralised the Palace winger whose increasingly desperate efforts to earn a free kick petered out to almost nothing. The Referees Union has your card marked, my son. Cease and desist. Give up the diving Wilfried, you will probably be a better player for it.

A short break now before the trip to Bournemouth and almost certainly a far more vigorous work out from the Cherries than we faced yesterday. Our opponents tomorrow night have the look of Premier League mid table solidity about them, a decent home form and the ability to batter the relegation sides on the road. Another professional performance required.

A short one from me today. Perhaps I am not in top gear !

Enjoy your Monday.

 

  • The scorpion strikes – a phrase for special occassions
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Arsenal Versus Palace: Much Ado About Nothing

Posted by steww on January 1, 2017 in All Posts

fireworks

Firstly allow me to apologise for the late post this morning. You can thank my neighbours who felt it appropriate to detonate explosives at midnight to celebrate one day turning into another. Maybe on June 18th I’ll go smash all the windows in their cars at 3 am. It is after all a special day for me and I like the sound of car alarms. Anyone who complains will get a sarcastic ‘Happy June 18th’ and be accused of being a miserable party pooper.

Anyway I finally calmed the hysterical pets and got back to some sort of fitful sleep many hours later, but then the alarm summoned me to my duty and so here I am. A glance at the Arsenal club website tells me we host Crystal Palace at four o’clock this afternoon. I can only hope our players got a better night’s sleep than I did and that the ‘few flu’ cases Arsène mentioned en passent in his press briefing are not in fact anything quite so serious.

Brushed over in the discussion of injuries this was in fact the most worrying of all. Flu is very different from a nasty cold despite the two often being conflated. I know, I’ve had it and you can barely lift your head from the pillow. A friend once described being so drained of motivation and energy that if you’d told him there was a million pounds outside his bedroom door he would not have bothered crossing the room to check.

I well remember the team being utterly debilitated by a bug prior to a visit to Old Trafford and can only pray we don’t see a recurrence today. Apart from anything else it is the relentless nature of this team, the famous spirit Arsène always praises, which wins so many games. Despite the sneering after the Man City defeat, the ludicrous suggestion that the players didn’t try, or want it enough, the facts are that Arsenal wins more matches in the final five minutes of a contest than any other side.

It is possible that the tactical blanket employed by many of our opponents contributes to this statistic. When prising open two lines of five and an unusually inspired keeper, you have to tease, and press, and cajole them out of shape. You can’t move the ball more quickly forward because you are playing most of the game in an attacking position already. Instead you need to move it sideways, dart forward, step back, try to winkle an opening. This is a game of long, drawn out siege football and usually pays dividends but often takes time. The defenders are sharper, fresher and less likely to lose discipline early in the match.

If we contrive an early goal there is often a flurry of activity, a passage of stormy play to navigate as the opposition strive to get back into the game and we shift gears into control mode. Sometimes we don’t do this as well as we might hope, other times we get a second and the players relax and have fun. It’s not an exact science, it can go either way. Without that breakthrough we end up with an attritional war and for fans that isn’t easy to take.

I watched my nephew wilt as we slowly picked West Brom’s lock last week. I heard his optimism and enthusiasm erode to the point where he would have been happy for me to turn off the match and play some Minesweeper videos on Youtube instead. It made me realise that those awful tweets and forum comments you read when watching this kind of match are actually quite understandable.

For very young children and those with limited cognitive powers it isn’t easy to mask  disappointment. After all we all watch for entertainment don’t we? If we aren’t being entertained then we feel let down. If the careful, patient application of pressure doesn’t thrill supporters then it’s inevitable that some will vent their frustration. The only reason we don’t do that here isn’t because we’re necessarily any more intelligent or insightful than other people it’s because we try harder.

We want this to be a haven of positive encouragement and mutual support not just another place where people can show off their waspish, sniping skills. We could also gain something by understanding those who feel less of an urge to mask their exasperation. In fact at this time of resolutions I am going to try to do just that. I resolve not to get angry with those who give voice to their anguish when life doesn’t go their way. I may wish for a world where all fans become more rather than less supportive when the team is struggling but that isn’t the world I live in and so I need to adjust.

I don’t expect it to be easy but I’m going to try. All supporters who want the best for the team regardless of how they express it are effectively on the same side. Those who wish ill on the manager and players are not included. Oh, and neither are people who set off fireworks in the middle of the night in response to the whims of Pope Gregory XIII. They can go shove their heads up a dead bear’s bum.

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It Was the Best of Times; It Was the Worst of Times

Posted by pedantic George @arseblagger on December 31, 2016 in All Posts

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2016 has seen us take a further step towards being a club that can compete on all fronts. Are we there yet? Not quite.The frustration for many fans is that the steps are not big enough or come quick enough and often enough. The huge income of United, and the even greater  wealth of the owners of City and Chelsea seems to allow them to take leaps and bounds, rather than steps.

If you can’t accept that although we are better placed to compete with transfer fees and wages, yet still unable to match the money that some others can, then the rate of progress the team is making could be seen as not being good enough. But it does take the disregarding of this fact, to reach that skewed conclusion.

With the additions of Xhaka, Mustafi and Perez it takes a special type of stupidity not to see progression.

For me its a simple choice, I can enjoy The Arsenal or I can choose to be miserable because of it. I can appreciate what the Team, manager and club is striving to achieve, or I can think I could do better. I can support or not.

There is nothing (apart from some of the fan-base) about this great club that I don’t like, no, that I don’t love !

Its been 12 years since we last won the league, and not once have I felt let down or disappointed in the efforts the club has made to win it. Of course huge disappointment that we haven’t, but that is two every different things.

As Terry Griffiths , my favourite snooker player once said “There can be a certain beauty in defeat”.

So that’s it for this year and we march on into the next, full of hope and promise.

Fortunately , here on Positively Arsenal we have had Stew and Andy at the head of our little column and for that I thank them from the very bottom of my heart. I get some credit for this site, but the reality is I’m just standing on the shoulders of giants. It would also be remiss of me not to thank my old allies Shotta and Arsenal Andrew, and of course all the other occasional contributors to the blog.

Thanks also to all those that take the time to read and comment, after all, that’s what this place is designed for.

All the best to you all in the coming year and UP THE ARSENAL

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Wenger and the War vs Stupidity

Posted by shotta_gooner on December 30, 2016 in All Posts

john-wayne-quote-stupid

Never argue with stupid people, they will drag you down to their level and beat you with experience.”

The above quote would make a very aspiring New Year’s resolution for all Positivists. It is attributable to Mark Twain, the great American writer, who is renown for his pithy but profound observations about the human condition, so much so that they retain as much if not more popularity than they did since he died over one hundred years ago.

When Twain spoke of the difficulty in overcoming stupidity he could well have been speaking about the media coverage of Arsene Wenger and Arsenal Football Club whether by mainstream or social media.

Take the matter of Arsene Wenger’s use and timing of substitutions. At the best of times, even when Arsenal is doing well, the armchair experts ridicule the manager’s predilection for making 70 minute substitutions. Should the substitutions not turn around an adverse situation they are in hog’s heaven posturing how things would have been better if earlier substitutions were made.

To be fair this mindless, counterfactual nonsense has been around for years.

On November 24, 2012, after a nil-all draw with Aston Villa, there was a story by the BBC with the headlines Arsenal boss Arsene Wenger said he did not have to justify his decisions after Gunners fans chanted “you don’t know what you’re doing”

The boss was quite feisty in his response:

“What is the thinking behind the substitution? I will not explain every decision I make,”

“I have managed for 30 years at the top level and I have to convince you [journalists] I can manage the team?”

Substitutions seem to have been an issue that year because earlier in February, the dot com published a major analytical piece by in-house statistician Josh James reporting that:

“…. the total of goals scored by subs during the Wenger era …. 161, from 2,206 substitutions made. That represents 9.9 per cent of all Arsenal goals scored under this manager, and they have come at a rate of one for every 13.7 subs.”

At the time, each of Arsenal’s last three goals had been scored by substitutes, meaning 12 per cent of the team’s total for the season-to-date had come from the bench. Furthermore Wenger was responsible for the best ever season in the club’s history with the use of substitutes in 2005/06, when 20 goals (a sizeable 21 per cent of the season’s total) came from this source (my emphasis).

Yet the nonsense persists to date. The post Man City mourning and finger-pointing by mainstream and social media was replete with examples of poseurs taking a pop at Wenger’s supposedly failed substitutions. Take this quote from the pain in the backside blog:

“There have been countless times where Wenger has waited with a replacement in the wings before it being too late. While I can conjure up many examples, let’s go with one that’s fresh in the memory. Our recent loss against the blue side of Manchester.”

Apart from failing to produce any historical data to back up “countless”, the factual record for the season-to-date completely debunks the statement. As the commentators will infrequently disclose during a match and dare not repeat lest it confirms that the in-house analysts are all taking us the viewers as jackasses (I am looking at you Robbie Earle, Robbie Mustoe and Kyle Martino on NBC), Arsenal has scored more goals in the last 15 minutes of games than any other team in the Premier League, yes within that 20 minute window when Arsene is infamous for making “late” substitutions.

As usual PA readers have the benefit of my research into the unbiased, unemotional data.

Game by Game Substitutions as of Dec 26, 2016
Game No of subs 1st sub 2nd sub 3rd sub Goals bef 70 Goals aft 70 Result
18 3 71 71 74 0 1 W
17 3 65 75 78 1 0 L
16 3 71 71 88 1 0 L
15 3 25 69 78 2 1 W
14 3 66 87 88 0 4 W
13 3 16 75 76 2 1 W
12 3 73 80 83 0 1 D
11 3 65 70 71 1 0 D
10 2 71 71 0 1 0 W
9 3 32 69 79 3 0 W
8 3 67 77 88 2 2 W
7 3 62 62 75 1 1 W
6 3 69 77 89 0 3 W
5 2 67 74 0 0 0 D
4 3 68 82 83 3 0 W
3 3 70 70 74 3 0 W
2 3 73 73 78 0 0 D
1 3 59 61 67 2 1 L
Total 61 1090 1314 1269 22 15
Avg 91% 57 73 79 1.2 0.8

Unlike my high school days, when, during experiments required for our science labs, we would manipulate the data to get the results desired by our teachers, I have no fear presenting the cold hard facts.

My first observation is that Wenger is absolutely correct about the importance of the 70th minute mark in not only scoring goals but game-deciding goals at that. Arsenal has lost only one out of 9 games this season when they have scored after the 70th minute. The sole occasion was that mad, frenetic season-opener encounter with Liverpool.  In all of the other eight games Arsenal have either gone on to win or draw. In contrast, on at least three occasions this season we have scored the opening goal and not only failed to win but, as should be fresh in our minds from recent events, eventually lost two important fixtures.

The second observation is while goals before the 70 minute mark exceed those after by a ratio of nearly 1.5:1, those 22 goals are being scored at a rate of 1 every 48 minutes while those   scored after 70 minutes are happening at a rate 1 every 24 minute. It doesn’t take a mathematical genius to understand that the last 20 minutes of games is the most decisive for goal-scoring and deciding the fate of a match.

Much of the other information generated by the table is secondary to my primary points but some are notable. For example, contrary to the constant carping by the usual suspects, Arsene’s average time for making his first sub is the 61st minute. The 2nd and 3rd subs are generally within the 80 minute window. Additionally, 91% of the time the manager makes all three subs belying the claim by some he makes insufficient use of the resources at hand.

What many of the critics fail to recognize or conveniently ignore is during the barren years, Arsene had a paucity of quality reserves at his disposal to make changes to decisively impact the game.  These days the boss can call on Giroud, Ramsey, Chamberlin or Gibbs to make decisive contributions during that critical 20 minute period. But then as humans there is a tendency to recognize change long after it has taken place; the phenomenon of consciousness slowly catching up with changes in nature.

I will conclude by noting that facts and data by themselves rarely cause people to change the opinions they have long held no matter how divorced from reality; false consciousness it is called.  In a recent twitter post, the boss himself observed a common allergic reaction to facts:

“We were shit today”
Have you seen the stats?
“Stats lie”
No, they are facts
“Facts lie then.”
Ok.

Positively Arsenal @Blackburngeorge  2:49 PM – 26 Dec 2016

My question to my fellow positivists is how else can we remain calm and serene in our support of this football club without the facts and data as our anchor?

Thank you for your readership and support in 2016.

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Arsenal : the Art of Execution

Posted by anicoll5 on December 27, 2016 in All Posts

eu-vote-bullfightingGood morning Positives,

And a fine morning again in Norfolk, and a Bank holiday to boot – a rare combination.

A top game yesterday that had me on the edge of the technical area until the 94th minute. A commendable performance from our lads, one and all. No hint of any panic or fright as we played smooth, patient football all afternoon, always on the front foot, passing, passing, passing and gradually driving the Baggies back. I heard/read some frustration that we were “passing too much” and had “too much possession”. I am afraid that to finally crack open the visiting side yesterday that the game we played was required, totally dominant in possession, pass after pass after pass, before finally putting them to the sword. The bullfighting metaphor struck me as apt. Mesut the torero with the cape and hook, Olivier with the sword as matador, the panting beast stumbled to its knees before its lights, finally, went out.

As I say I was pleased with all our players yesterday. Because WBA were not remotely interested in attacking from open play the pitch was open for our unrestricted use. All three of our full backs had excellent games. Hector put in his most attacking performance that I can remember, very effective and deserving of a goal. Gibbs was excellent and his constant pressing on the wing worked well with Sanchez, and Monreal stepped in to keep the pressure on the by then wilting visitors.

Further forward the Coq and Granit combination worked well against the Albion midfield. Both players have bags of energy and are fast over the ground which is about 90% of midfield work in the PL nowadays. Win the ball, then pass it swiftly to the players who don’t waste it. Granit – the shooting from 25 yards son – leave it for now eh?

And finally the men at the tip of the spear, Alexis and Larry, both of whom carved chances out against Albion that on another day, and with a keeper less awake than Ben Foster, would have brought a 2 or 3 goal margin of victory rather than the single goal win.

Against us was arrayed a visiting side who played their part exceptionally well also, resolute defenders to the death, throwing their bodies and heads in until finally they were skewered. Pulis did what he does best, scrape a gang of modestly talented journeymen into a defensive wall of greater quality than its constituent parts. Tony knows when he is beaten at his own game though. To quote the defeated manager on our winner;

“He put his hand across him early and outmuscled him,” said the West Brom manager, Tony Pulis, almost in admiration. “I think if Gareth takes a step forward, then he stops Giroud pinning him. Once he pinned him he is so strong and overpowers him. I’ve got no complaints.”

A defeated manager with “no complaints” Pffft –As flies to wanton boys are we to th’ gods. They kill us for their sport.

Of other aspects of the game ? Bad luck for young Kieran to go off after a clash in which both players could have been seriously injured. Hopefully for our full back he just has a badly bruised knee and will be fit for Palace. No gripes with referee Swarbrick yesterday. Not one of my favourite whistlers but a workmanlike performance with no errors I saw. One minor negative; Giroud needs to control the ‘dissent’ business. A pointless yellow card that early and you are one clumsy challenge or stray arm away from reducing us to ten men. And that would have ruined everyone’s afternoon!

That is me for this year – thank you for reading !

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Arsenal Versus West Brom: Paradise Regained

Posted by steww on December 26, 2016 in All Posts

kickabout

I don’t know about you but Christmas has always been a time out of time for me. Even the days of the week cease to follow their usual pattern. We abstain from the conventions of Monday to Sunday, preferring instead Christmas Eve, Christmas Day and Boxing Day. These will bleed seamlessly into The Day After Boxing Day followed in this instance by Wednesday, Thursday, Friday and New Year’s Eve.

It’s the only time of year that does this and I love it. A little holiday from humdrum reality and other than when we change the clocks is probably the only chance we have to allow ourselves to toy so fancifully with such rigidly imposed temporal norms.

Apart from not actually knowing that yesterday was a Sunday (until I resorted to inspecting a calendar) other significant facts my mind glossed over in its Yuletide reverie were that I had a blog to write and Arsenal had a match to play.

I don’t think anyone here will mind therefore that I have nothing prepared for you today. I’m sure you all had far more important things to do than give even a fleeting momentary thought to such distractions as football yourselves. Don’t panic, there was no danger of me actually forgetting the match entirely. You may recall a few weeks back when we played Tottenham that my nephew came and watched the match with me, he having, at the age of nine, decided that the mighty Arsenal was the team for him.

Well we’ve already been given notice that he’s coming again today, resplendent in his most prized Christmas gift of the year, his Arsenal first team kit. He has been an ever present with me, for day time kick offs at least, and it’s been a fascinating change to my routine.

Apart from when Kelly and Mike visited us earlier in the year I haven’t watched a match with anyone else in the room since the League Cup final against Birmingham, preferring to sit alone in a state of tense, twitching anxiety for the duration of the game. However seeing the whole thing through the eyes of a child has been a tonic for me.

If I allowed my perception of football to be dominated by the pathetic online squabbling and faux expertise of the so called adult population I seriously think I would give up on the sport altogether. The warm, funny, insightful community I joined all those years ago has disintegrated and is now almost entirely monopolised by point scoring demi trolls on either side of the debate who have lost any obvious love of the simple thrill of following their favourite team.

The young man who will sidle in next to me at three o’clock today knows none of this. He also struggles with the offside rule, why everyone doesn’t get booked for kicking the ball over the sideline as Francis Coquelin did, and why, if he can see a bad decision on the screen, can’t the people in charge of the game see it also. He cheers and whoops with delight when we score, and purses his lips and just stares at me for guidance when we concede.

It is fair to say I’ve learned a hell of a lot more from him in the last six weeks than I have from Twitter in the last several years.

Unfortunately for me he missed the City game and came round the next day to watch the replay with me forcing me to do that which I never do – watch a defeat all over again. Once more it was a salutary lesson. I survived the ordeal, no one died as a result of it and surprise surprise neither our tactics nor the individual performances of our players were remotely as bad as the internet had led me to believe. I put the highlights of our six nil thrashing of Ludogorets on when the game finished and the boy went home happy.

So as you lot all wind each other up with talk of ‘must win’ games and dark tales of Pulis and his sinister past my nephew and I will balance our lucky soccer cards on the keyboard of my computer and compare his new Arsenal shirt with my old style one. We’ll yell encouragement at the deaf, uncomprehending screen as our boys go forward and sigh and shake our heads at any setback. And I’ll bet I enjoy the whole experience a thousand times more for taking it so much less seriously than any of the games I used to watch with only the internet for company.

I predict a thumping win today with goals galore and end to end action all cheered on with gusto by those lucky enough to get their hands on a ticket. If not I predict a kick about in the back garden under the lights and something fizzy to drink. Smashing.

 

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