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Arsenal Failing Without Santi Cazorla

santi-injury

As the game evolved on Sunday between Man City and Arsenal I had this surreal sensation of a slowly unfolding train wreck. From the moment the ball ricocheted from midfield to defense after Cech’s back-kick and somehow eluded both Gabriel and Koscielny to find the clearly offside Sane, who went on to score, it was apparent to me we were losing control of the game. By the way, the mealy mouth media bastards who are usually the first to proclaim that offside applies to any part of the body that is off, deserve a place in hell for trying to justify Sane’s goal on the grounds that  Koscielny’s “boot” kept him on. This fate applies equally to ex-Gunner Lee Dixon as well as his team of yes-men, Arlo White and Graeme LeSaux who were on my NBC tv feed. Their ex-post justification of a clear officiating error, is further confirmation that the mainstream media can do nothing less than reflexively and automatically  justify officialdom, no matter how wrong and unjust. But then they are all part of the Establishment. How dare they criticize one of their own?

From the moment Man City scored, the swagger, confidence and bravado that was apparent for much of the first half clearly began to slip away. The Arsenal men, slowly but surely, lost control of the game both on the defensive and offensive end. Too often the team was desperately defending on the edge of the box unable to move the ball from defense and attack. Justifiably they tried to play the ball out of the back rather than whacking it down field. More often than not it would ping uncontrollably off the legs of a Gunner resulting in a turnover to the opposition.

Nobody in midfield seem able to take-on one or more opponent in tight paces and beat them with skill or win a foul giving the team time to reset. No one had the audacity, impudence, the nerve, simply the chutzpah, to attempt a dribble from deep in Arsenal’s defensive 3rd and put the pressure on the opposition forcing them to retreat as fast as hell fearing Arsenal could easily turn defense into attack at lightning speed. Simply speaking there was no Santi Cazorla in sight.

I am not sure how many shared my feelings but as the game increasingly fell from our grasp I desperately pined for our little Spanish maestro. Afterwards, as is my wont, I researched the data to confirm whether my feelings had any factual basis or not.

7 Games With Santi:

W D L GF GA PTS PPG
6 1 0 16 6 19 2.7

9 Games Without Santi:

W D L GF GA PTS PPG
3 3 3 19 13 12 1.3

Is there a more telling series of data? With Santi the club was putting up an eye watering statistic ppg of 2.7, which is title-winning numbers, and without him the ppg has fallen by 50% to 1.3. The dramatic fall in ppg,  if not arrested,  is a slow but sure slide to mid-table mediocrity. The data-phobic critics will be the first to say the sample size is small, etc. But PA readers are aware of the research I did last October, which prove that ever since he arrived from Malaga four years ago, Santi Cazorla has been the most valuable player at Arsenal Football Club.

Take a gander at the following key data

Season Apps Mins Goals Assists PS%
2015/2016 15 1293 3 90.2
2014/2015 33 2992 7 11 89.0
2013/2014 30 2597 4 8 86.3
2012/2013 37 3311 12 11 86.8

From the moment he arrived at Arsenal, Santi was required to play some heavy minutes, well in excess of 3,000 in his very first year and a trifle less in 2014/15. Add 624 and 559 minutes respectively in the champion’s league campaigns, then we get a full measure of how vital it was for the manager to have the little maestro on the team sheet. It was only because of injuries that his minutes were abbreviated in 2015/16.

When playing, Santi excelled in all the key technical attributes of a midfielder.  Never the most prolific of goal scorers, he rattled in as much as 12 in 2012/13 but this leveled off over the years as his role changed to someone operating from a deeper midfield position. Equally, if not more significant, was his ability during the first three injury-free years to create a consistently high number of assists improving  from 1 in 3.36 games in 2012/13 to 1 in 3 in 2014/15.  Throughout the years the Spaniards passing percentage was never less than the 86th percentile improving to as high as the 90th percentile in 2015/16.

How did this translate into results? The data reveals that consistently, without exception, for all games played by the ambidextrous Spanish maestro, Arsenal’s ppg was consistently higher than the ppg for the entire team for the comparable season, i.e. when one accounts for games without Santi.

Season PPG-Santi PPG-AFC PPG – Title
2015/2016 2.14 1.87 2.13
2014/2015 2.06 1.97 2.29
2013/2014 2.24 2.08 2.26
2012/2013 1.92 1.74 2.34

The difference ranges from 0.27 ppg in 2015/16, the period when Santi was absent for nearly 6 months, to a mere .09 ppg in 2014/15. These numbers may appear to be marginal and insignificant but such are the fine margins between winning and losing a title:

  • If Arsenal sustained Santi’s 2.14 ppg in 2015/16 the club would have exceed Leicester’s title-winning total of 2.13.
  • If Arsenal sustained Santi’s 2.24 ppg in 2013/14 they had the possibility of competing with Manchester City for the title, definitely coming closer to 2nd rather than finishing 4th.

Despite years of unbiased data which demonstrate, without need for headlines and drama, that Santi Cazorla is the key link in the chain built by Arsene Wenger, not every pundit and tactical expert was willing to proclaim that he left a big gaping hole in the Arsenal midfield last October with his injury. Even the relatively decent WhoScored .com to date averaged Santi as less than a 7 out of 10 player:

DATE HOME SCORE AWAY RATING
20-08-2016 Leicester 0-0 Arsenal 6.17
27-08-2016 Watford 1-3 Arsenal 7.08
10-09-2016 Arsenal 2-1 Southampton 8.05
17-09-2016 Hull 1-4 Arsenal 6.88
24-09-2016 Arsenal 3-0 Chelsea 6.97
02-10-2016 Burnley 0-1 Arsenal 6.80
15-10-2016 Arsenal 3-2 Swansea 6.91

It was left to Arsene Wenger, when recently asked whether he would go out into the transfer market to get another Santi Cazorla, this January to state:

“… in January you will not normally find a Cazorla – even if you want to.”

Seems to me Arsene will have to tinker with the shape of the side between now and Cazorla’s return to make it a little more solid defensively at the expense of the earlier swashbuckling attacking style. Between now and then our title-winning chances will rest on the very fine thread sewn by Santi’s surgeon in Sweden.

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Arsenal: Dial M for Meltdown

large_psycho_blu-ray_5Good morning Positive Arsenal fans,

A brief review of yesterday’s painful events this morning. I am sure that most of you have endured a downbeat Sunday evening and Monday morning, as the result of yesterday’s game lapped at the edges of our consciousness. I know my past sixteen hours have seen evidence of most of the symptomatic signs of upset; anhedonia, irritability, loss of confidence, diminished appetite, disrupted sleep pattern, difficulty in concentrating, and patchy memory. Yes fellow Positives the symptoms still come, despite my long experience of being stung by the malicious insect of footballing misfortune. The feeling, at this stage, I cannot intellectualise away. Later in the week I shall feel better, but not today.

I feel I should discuss the game as that is in my job specification at PA.

First half good, excellent early goal, may have got a second, matched Citeh all over the park, sound defensively, the home side lively but Pep clearly frustrated and on the edge of panic. I could see, as Mr Atkinson led the players off at HT, a three point haul from the game as entirely feasible.

Second half ? Well I am afraid to say we managed to drag up another grimly awful second half effort, very similar I thought to that we produced at Trafford Park a few weeks back. Now I admit the equaliser was a set back, a very soft goal whether it was onside or offside, and to some extent that may explain a jolt to the collective Arsenal system. But we have had setbacks and lost goals all season. A goal against us does not explain a fractured display over the next 45 minutes in which passes went astray, possession was surrendered tamely and the impression was given that the players who had been so competent in the first half had been replaced by a bunch of chaps who had never played together before. Did we ever really threaten Bravo’s goal in the second half ? ( Shakes head and puffs out cheeks) The outcome of our disjointed second half display was inevitable. I would not mind if we had been played off the park by a Citeh side at their best. The home side did not even adopt the “aggressive” Everton approach. I thought the opposition were distinctly ordinary.

It is neither my style nor the purpose of this blog to apportion blame or to allocate guilt. I think we can rely on others to do that. I suspect the players, manager and coaches travelling home last night felt as disappointed as we do. They know that they did not perform as they can do, and have done on so many important games this season. It must be for the players to look into themselves, and the manager and coaches to work hard to ensure our next game against the Baggies on Boxing Day is 95 minutes of sustained good football.

If there was a simple answer to avoiding our second half syndrome then it would have been erased long ago.

Anyway that is my five-penneth. You will get no meltdown  or outrage on here. I suspect it will be quiet on here today but I will be in and out with bits and pieces. Please enjoy your week in the run up to Christmas and the day itself.

 

 

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Arsenal Versus Man City: Rage, Rage Against the Dying Of The Light

Joie de vivre
The frenzy which greeted our defeat on Wednesday night was enough to put any reasonable person off the game for life. I steered clear of the blood letting and the bed wetting because I knew my masters would be cracking the whip and expecting the minimum word count from me this morning. Had I indulged in the orgiastic, self harming, feeding frenzy I know I couldn’t have faced the blog, the match or any of the silly over blown circus ever again.

The way we turn in on ourselves when we have no way of lashing outwards reminds me of my dogs. They spend their days on a giant cushion under the desk at which I am sat. They divide their time between snoozing and cat watch. If a moggie dare shows its face in the back garden they attack the glass conservatory panel with all the impotent fury of a driver giving the finger to the fast disappearing rear lights of a BMW which had dared to overtake.

Once the offending puss has strolled from view with a nonchalant disregard for the distant canine rage the dogs, by now beyond the point of reason, invariably turn on one another and snap and snarl and generally clash teeth and share a lot of drool. Occasionally fur flies but without exception they will eventually settle into their former state, carefully scrutinizing the lawn and fence posts for feline incursions.

I have done the self same thing. I can’t shout at the ref or opposition players, the only football fans I follow are Arsenal fans and the only Arsenal fans I follow are the positive realists. So who else do I have to sink my canines into? Once I’d seen the clear parallel with the dopey mutts beneath my desk I knew it had to stop. So after Wednesday I just faded Cheshire Cat like into the background with nothing but the faint glow of a snarl to betray my presence.

The only thing I can see to do after a defeat is look forward to the next match. The idea of fans falling out with one another over their opinions on our tactical shortcomings is too laughable for words. What on earth do they think their ideas count for? Who with any influence over the players will ever know or care what you or I think about Xhaka’s positional play or whether Walcott’s runs are exploited by his team mates? Who gives a damn what we think? No one who matters, no one with the power to effect practical change.

So I looked forward and closed my eyes and ears to the bellyaching. I looked forward to the next match and for once the fates were kind to us. Ideally we would have played Chelsea but Man City or Liverpool would do. Playing against our direct rivals is the perfect fixture following a defeat. It is a game of such significance as to wipe the memory of an Everton away day clean from the mind. It is, in the popular slang, a six pointer. We have the opportunity to record a famous victory which will make all the histrionics over the Goodison result seem silly in comparison.

Unless of course you believe that we have already fallen too far off the pace and are doomed to watch yet another rival lift the trophy in May. In which case surely you must approach every game in a thoroughly relaxed frame of mind. If it’s already too late to achieve anything positive then we are playing for fun and you can shrug off any loss and chuckle at every win. With nothing riding on the match you have nothing to get het up about have you?

In sport as in life it is vital that we taste the pain of defeat. The bitterness should insult the tongue. It is this experience alone which lends victory its unique piquancy. Should we bring home the three points this afternoon it will be all the sweeter for the context of our midweek disappointment.

Win, lose or draw I just wish there was some way for football fans to rediscover a little equilibrium. It isn’t your career on the line, you are no more invested in this than a bird watcher is in a falcon’s egg. Sure it’s disappointing if the chick gets so far only to fall from the nest, but you get to pack up your binoculars and go home for your tea don’t you? You can stand there and shout at the tiercel for choosing an inadequate nest site if it would make you feel better but really the best you can hope to achieve is attracting strange looks from that nice lady with the RSPB badge on her hat.

The problem with us football fans is we think we’re special. We think our hobby more important than others and that we therefore have a peculiar dispensation to behave like complete pricks when things don’t go our way. It’s chastening to get to fifty three years old and realise that for the last forty six years I have been deluding myself in this as in so many other aspects of my life.

Bad refereeing might be killing the game. TV money might be killing the game. Corruption in FIFA or the FA might be killing the game. But hysterical, bad tempered, self indulgent, childish supporting is also gnawing at the foundations with a quite frightening ferocity. I decided to give it another go today but if we lose and the reaction is as bad as I suspect it will be I’m going to struggle to join in again.

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Arsenal: Bound upon a wheel of Fire

fotf-arrival-flame-trench-rs

Good morning Positivistas,

Our second defeat in 16 PL games came as something of a surprise, and needless to say a disappointment. I admit that coming into the game against our favourite opponents, and watching the hapless Toffees fumble around for the opening 20 minutes, there seemed very little chance indeed that we would not speed home with not only the points safely in hand but a probable boost to our goal difference.

Oh Andrew, thou shouldst not have been old till thou hadst been wise.

With the home crowd groaning in justifiable apprehension, from being battered and clueless, somewhere our hosts managed to find a spark of resistance midway through the first half. That smouldering heap of discarded blue rags grew into a small bonfire of hope with Coleman’s neatly taken goal. The home crowd awoke, a quiver of expectation. Despite our efforts at fighting the blaze early in the second half Everton piled the tinder on, and by the time Williams headed their winner we were opposed by a conflagration across the horizon that scorched our title ambitions and left us breathless and smudged. The home crowd went mental.

As Arsene rightly said they were aggressive, physical, and they knocked us out of our stride. Clearly they were never going to out-football us, or even out-football us, but they did what the had to do, and earned their reward. Our defects last night were that having controlled the game for the opening half hour, and made chances before half time, that we did not score more than one goal. In truth the goal we did get was hardly a classic. At 1-1 we created just one really good chance and even that was far from a tap in for Ozil. How unusual it was to lose to two goals, both headers, scored by opposition defenders? A full back heading in a goal from the edge of the 6 yard box from open play – most, most odd. There is clearly a message there both for our defensive organisation, and from the goals themselves which I suspect we could learn a little when trying to break open the packed defences at the Ems.

Of our lads last night I thought Koscielny was absolutely magnificent and that was as good a game as I have seen him play, a real captain’s performance. To come off the pitch having lost a game into which you have put so much must be sickening. Gabriel and Monreal, Le Coq and Xhaka also deserve a mention for their unstinting hard work and self control against an hour of physical mauling.

Of the opposition I thought their full backs, both of whom have been on the end of stick from EFC fans all season I read, were top notch. I cannot recall Hector having such a quiet evening for a long while as he was pinned back.

Having dissected, reviewed, learned and discarded we move on to the Etihad on Sunday. A four day break much appreciated and, I suspect, needed by our players who had as physically hard a game last night as they have had all season. I did not see any injuries last night which was a small but welcome relief.

In the course of a 38 game season two defeats is of little or no significance as it is resilience that brings success. A first defeat away from home for nine months is hardly calamity. We shall see what we learned.

Enjoy your week.

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Arsenal Versus Everton: Crunching The Numbers

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One of the things I dislike most about the Christmas period is that there is far too much football compressed into too little time. It distorts the balance of the race for the title which otherwise has a pleasantly steady momentum. Would the world of athletics stand for it if Mo Farrah, 4,000 metres into a 10,000 metre race, was suddenly expected to negotiate a Takeshi’s Castle obstacle course with a big rubber mallet swinging across the track as he clambered over giant foam doughnuts? I doubt it. Yet we have a similarly ludicrous pile up of matches at a time when the weather and pitches are at their worst and just when everyone would benefit from a little rest.

However we can at least content ourselves that it is only at Christmas, can’t we? Well you’d hope so, but here I am attempting to bash out yet another blog only a couple of days after Andy’s match review of the Stoke match. We seem to be playing every few days even in the build up to the madness of the festive fixture feck up and I fear for the hamstrings and Achilles tendons of all our players as they get twanged like over tightened bow strings.

Tonight the opposition is provided by Everton who showed great early promise under Ronald Koeman this season. That bubble of positivity has burst like an unsightly pimple of late with only one win in their last six matches. Taken over the previous ten fixtures their results have sent them to second from bottom, above only Hull City at the grubby end of the form table. We in sharp contrast sit second only to Chelsea in the rarefied air at that table’s summit.

So a foregone conclusion then? If our resident statistical number cruncher is to be believed then the answer must be yes. After all  Shotta pointed out yesterday “AFC is pounding those mid and lower level teams who they are expected to beat instead of dropping points as they did last year”. However, and as I keep pointing out, Positively Arsenal is a broad church and for every fan who hugs the comfort pillow of unbiased data to their heaving bosom there is a superstitious nitwit terrified that the wind might change at any moment.

I fall somewhere between the two stools. Yes the scorelines make satisfactory reading and yes there have been some scintillating moments of pure Arsène Wenger inspired footballing elegance. Success in sport hangs by such slender threads though and should one snap at just the wrong moment we might find ourselves in a much less cosy situation.

In a parallel universe Peter Crouch’s header beats Cech at his near post and the entire complexion of Saturday’s game changes. The ultimate scoreline may look convincing but each match has moments of unpredictability upon which the equilibrium of the apple cart must rest.

I am of course falling into a trap here. One which I decry others for not anticipating and I therefore hold up my hands. I’ve read, for example, that had Cavani not missed the target with such aplomb Paris Saint-Germain would have beaten us comfortably. Our Champion’s League group stage success was, therefore, no more than chimerical and misleading manifestation of good fortune. In short do not read too much into good results as they are structures built on shifting sands.

This is, I’m sorry to say, baloney. The problem with such counterfactual thinking is that we cherry pick the moments we want to change in order to suit or predetermined narrative.

So Peter Crouch scores and it’s 2 – 2. Does that automatically mean the game ends in a draw? Or do we go chasing the winner leave ourselves open at the back and concede to a counter attack? Why only change the story so that particular near miss goes in? Why not bend Alexis’s shot slightly to the right so he scores instead of missing? Why not have their keeper slip and not save one of Theo’s many efforts? I do not hold with any of this ‘a better team would have punished us’ nonsense. Alter one variable and you had just as well alter them all.

History tells us unbeaten runs like winning and losing streaks come to an end. All that matters to us is how the team responds when this happens. Since Southampton interrupted our unbeaten sequence we’ve won every game, scoring twelve goals and only conceding three. No one could ask any more of the players than that. If you cannot be delighted with such a response to disappointment and be filled with excitement at the prospect of more to come then football may not be for you.

One thing all fans do enjoy is a good statistic or two. Thanks to those diligent folk at Everton Results I have discovered that we are the Toffee’s least favourite opponents. No one has spanked them which such regularity in their entire history and in recent times they have only beaten us once in nineteen matches. The most worrying stat in an exhaustive list which must have taken some work to compile is that Everton have never lost a home game played on December 13th.

All right so maybe that doesn’t prove much but I do have a genuine word of caution to the Gung-ho reader. While Everton’s recent results make uncomfortable reading for them, closer examination reveals that it is away from Goodison where they struggle. They may have lost their last four games on the road but at home, excepting an EFL Cup defeat, they remain unbeaten all season.

So, in conclusion, having weighed up the cold, emotionless, Terminator style data and stirred in some curious and tenuous statistics, seasoned with a dash of counterfactual revisionism I conclude that I have no idea what’s going to happen tonight. The question the boys must answer is can they do it on a wet cold night on Merseyside? I don’t see why not, but I don’t expect it to be easy.

If you’re travelling all the way up there then good luck to you, I shall be watching surrounded by snotty tissues amid the steaming fug of Beecham’s Cold and Flu remedy all the time giving off gales of the great smell of Vic’s. So while the journey north may be arduous it will be infinitely preferable to sharing the couch with me.

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Gooners: Trust The Unbiased Data, Not The Mainstream Media

 mainstream-press

In my last blog, less than a week ago, I called readers’ attention to the mainstream media’s deliberate lack of attention to Arsenal’s statistically significant 13 game unbeaten streak. After the club’s thrashing of Stoke last Saturday, some of us may have expected a change in tone, some token appearance of even-handedness and fairness. Such naivety and illusions were once again met by a wall of silence and indifference as the media decided that Chelsea (sorry Manchester City – you messed up), is the financial behemoth who, under a young, telegenic coach, will sweep all before them in the Premier League.

A sample of the Sunday-Monday headlines on their web sites tells the story.

According to the BBC:

Costa Secures Chelsea’s Ninth Straight League Win

The Guardian is equally on point:

Costa Strikes Again As Chelsea Extend Winning Run

Surprise, surprise ESPN FC has almost the same headlines:

Costa Keeps Chelsea’s Run Going

How the mainstream media manages to maintain such uniformity in messaging is something that never ceases to amaze me. My only explanation is based on personal experience. As someone who works in a relatively closed field similar to journalism, where the few members of the profession socialize in a fairly incestuous circle, it has been my observation that one learns very quickly “to go along to get along”. Sooner or later one learns what is acceptable or not to the powers that be. One unconsciously acts and reacts in a manner and fashion similar to all the other members of the herd, which seems to be the case with football journos. Readers may have an alternative point of view.

Back to my theme, according to the English press, Arsenal going 14 games unbeaten merits Zip. Nada. Zilch.

Readers of this blog know that I have provided 20 years of Premier league data to demonstrate that, under Wenger, a 9-game and over winning streak by Arsenal is highly correlated to Premier League title success.

Is Chelsea’s 9 game winning run equally correlated? According to Goal.com (here), it certainly is. Based on stats provided by OptaJoe, they noted that this is the fifth time, a record for the PL, that Chelsea have gone on a nine game run and that …

“….they also won nine games in a row in 2007 and 2005 – on their way to the title.”

They then present a table which is supposed to prove their point (click on the link above).

On closer analysis I found the data is either riddled with bias or irrelevant to a season by season analysis. I had to rework it and add relevant information for your benefit.

Date Last Game Team Winning Run  League Pos
18-May-02 Arsenal 13 1st
20-Aug-02 Man United 12 n.a.
4-Mar-09 Man United 11 2nd
20-Sep-09 Chelsea 11 n.a.
20-Apr-14 Liverpool 11 2nd
12-Sep-15 Man City 11 n.a.
3-May-98 Arsenal 10 1st
31-Dec-05 Liverpool 10 3rd
15-Jan-06 Chelsea 10 1st
18-Aug-93 Man United 9 n.a.
20-Mar-04 Arsenal 9 1st
15-Oct-05 Chelsea 9 1st
9-Apr-06 Man United 9 2nd
7-May-06 Liverpool 9 3rd
18-Apr-07 Chelsea 9 2nd
11-Dec-16 Chelsea 9 TBD

In four of the years listed by Goal the supposed streaks overlapped two seasons which I designate as not applicable (n.a.). Out goes one of their so-called Chelsea record-making sequence of wins. United and City are also inappropriately credited in one case each of a  season- long winning streak.

Looking at the unbiased data, only Arsenal, under Wenger, has a consistent history of turning all winning streaks during a season into titles. Chelsea has done it two times out of three and the fate of their current sequence of wins is still to be decided. Poor old Liverpool has had some good runs but has never turned them into titles. Note Manchester United under Ferguson was never about winning streaks; it was a maximizing the points at home and never losing on the road.

Either the media is innumerate, as Goal evidently is, or they totally disrespect and underestimate the managerial history of Arsene Wenger. Because only a foolish or biased journalist would ignore how Wenger has made this team resilient and consistent in their performances so far this season. For all his Premier league opponents this is an ominous sign.

So what of Chelsea’s current streak? Is it all it is made out by the press? It certainly is noteworthy but looking at the data there is need for pause before premature predictions of glory.

Club W D L GF GA GD Pts PPG
Chelsea 12 1 2 33 11 22 37 2.47
Arsenal 10 4 1 36 15 21 34 2.27
Liverpool 9 4 2 37 20 17 31 2.07
Man City 9 3 3 32 19 13 30 2.00
Tottenham 7 6 2 24 11 13 27 1.80
Man United 6 6 3 20 16 4 24 1.60

Several things are obvious about Chelsea’s advantage over Arsenal:

  • Mere 3 points difference.
  • A 2.47 PPG is historically unsustainable. In the past 20 years the avg PPG for first half of the season is 2.19. It increases to 2.32 for title winning teams. Only one team has had a season-ending PPG above 2.47 and that is the great Chelsea team of 2004-05 which ended at 2.50. That team had the likes of Robben, Duff, Gudjohnsen, Drogba, Cole, Cech, Makelele, Terry, Carvalho, Gallas, and Ferreira either starting or coming off the bench. Who sees similar depth in quality and quantity currently at Stamford Bridge?

There has been a lot of push-back, even among my dearest colleagues at PA, to my assertion that the unbiased data is very predictive. The last three years has seen a progressive improvement in the quality of the Arsenal squad and in league position.  I am yet to do a club by club comparison of results this year vs last year. But there is evidence that AFC is pounding those mid and lower level teams who they are expected to beat instead of dropping points as they did last year. AFC is also winning league games post Champions League fixtures rather than struggling for a draw if not losing. This is due to being able to heavily rotate the squad and not experience a drop in quality.

As I keep repeating, given the predictability of AFC’s performance and the resulting data, there is no reason to rely on hope and there is no reason to be in despair after a setback. The unbiased data is predicting a 1st or 2nd place finish in the league this season. Given the qualitative importance of Wenger as one of the pre-eminent football coaches in the world, this is a decisive advantage in AFC’s favour as the League enters the decisive homestretch next year.

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Arsenal: Riding the Range, Poking Stoke

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Good morning Positive Arsenal fans,

We sit astride the bolting donkey of the 2016/2017 Premier League this Sunday morning. From my view downward from the saddle I can see a few of our competitors in disarray, particularly up in Manchester. Our lead may not survive the Baggies’ efforts at the home of the Champions elect this lunchtime but it is nevertheless a pleasant marker in the season. We deserve to be where we are this morning because we play football in the right way.

The game yesterday was well worth the Category C money. The Stoke City that turned up was probably the best team that sad little Midland town has put out since their return to the PL. A very brisk start. While I dislike Arnautovic for this part on the Debuchy shoulder injury he played well as a lone striker. Why Klopp sold Allen baffles me. Stoke put together at least two first half moves of attacking football that were of good quality and but for some smart defending and our excellent keeper the one goal they scored might have even been two or three.

Of note in yesterday’s game I thought the arrival of Hector transformed our performance which, to that point had been a little hesitant and wrong footed. That is not to insult Gabriel who has filled in well in the defensive aspects of being right back but our young Spaniard’s speed and attacking threat are exceptional weapons, unique in the present time in England. Suddenly space and time opened along the left side of the visitors’ defence that had not been there before. No surprise whatsoever that it was the Hector/Theo combo that levelled the score at the perfect time.

Of the penalty ? As I was at the wrong end I had no view of it at the time. Seeing it on the box a few times since the award was one that I can see why it was made. When they go in your favour therefore the referee is a man of impeccable integrity, a sound knowledge of the game and exceptionally good eye sight. When they go against you the official  is an absolute tool, naïve beyond belief, and almost certainly in the pay of tyrannical Gulf plutocrats.

Memo to Granit: Keep you elbows a teensy-weensy bit lower ‘cos next time it may not be just a penalty that results.

However, having encountered what is becoming a familiar obstacle of the one goal deficit, we displayed a commendable certainty in taking hold of the game over the next thirteen minutes before the equalizer. As I said Hector was an important part of breaking into the Stoke defence, Alexis was his usual pinball self and Ozil, after a quiet start, made space for himself to work in which, before half time he just could not find.

Of our second and third goals both demonstrated the intelligence of the scorers. Ozil’s was a perfectly judged finish to a chance that most other players would have struggled to know what to do with. The German’s instincts made his choice of the placed header over the stranded Grant look simple. It really was ot simple at all.

And what an end to the week for Alex Iwobi ?? Saw the opening, chose his spot, lovely finish. Last two times the youngster was in the stadium his evenings finished in defeat by the Saints, and the game before that an own goal and his immediate substitution against the dastardly PSG. Last night the hero.

For once I was much obliged to Sky last night for spotting the stamp by Adam on Sanchez in the lead up to Iwobi’s goal. Fucking ridiculous behaviour, again, from the Scotsman. I had not seen Adams’ violence mentioned before so hopefully, having been alerted, the offence can be properly looked at and action taken.

For those of us with leisure to burn this Sunday a day of TV or streamed football stretches out, for those of you working and studying may your industry be rewarded.

Opening picture by an excellent NI photographer Paul Moane @paulmoane

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Arsenal Versus Stoke: Sparky’s Magic Piano

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The last time we enjoyed an extravagant midweek score and performance in the Champion’s League we returned to earth with a bump at the weekend. Despatching a Ludogorets side (which has proven to be far better than the naysayers ever suggested) with style and six of the best, we returned to face Middlesbrough at the Emirates. Most of us were salivating at the prospect of more of the same but instead were treated to an hour and half’s frustration as the team from the North east put in as organised and determined a defensive display as one could hope to see.

Stoke City have the potential to pose similar problems today. Sitting in the middle of the table they are well used to frustrating more illustrious opponents and on occasions even embarrassing them. I’m hoping that the experience against ‘boro will stand the team in good stead although to be fair we didn’t fail to beat them due to a lack of effort, we just had an off day.

The team Stoke will face today are in very good form both individually and collectively and the confidence with which they went about their work on Wednesday will surely inform the way they go about it today. Alexis is the outstanding player at the moment playing with the kind of verve and audacious invention which cannot help but remind us all of heroes from a bygone era.

Like everyone else his partnership with Özil has tempted me into comparisons with the days of the Henry/Bergkamp axis. I’ve decided not to go down that particular avenue of analogy simply because I’d rather enjoy the here and now. Also I have a sneaking suspicion that there is mischief in the motivation of those drawing such parallels. Set our players a ridiculously high bar and they can easily be dubbed as failures should they fail to clear it.

Now I know there are some of you who enjoy the comfortable indulgence of middle brow middle ground moral superiority and will see such thoughts as more evidence of an unhinged paranoid fantasy. It is what makes Positively Arsenal such a broad church and far from decrying your chosen position I salute your ability to shuck off and dismiss the mounting evidence all around you. However when each month brings a new media campaign against our club it is surely forgiveable if some of us begin to question much of what is said about us.

The Black November stories have now been replaced with the destabilising ‘want away stars’ transfer stories. I can only assume the hope is any drop in form from our leading lights will result in negative reactions on the terraces and online. The stick to beat them has been provided and already I’ve read comments comparing Sanchez with Van Persie so it seems to be working.

The manager and the players have to cope with this phenomenon as best they can and just get on with their jobs. It must surely bring at least a rueful smile when they see the Heroic Harry headlines which accompanied Spurs ignominious exit from the Champion’s League. Still, overcoming adversity is part of the make up of all top sportsmen and if they can shrug it off so must we. Like the penalty embargo and opposition players being allowed to kick ours with impunity, it is wrong, unfair and there is bugger all we can do but suck it up. Or pretend it isn’t happening. It’s all about your chosen coping strategy I suppose.

Hopefully Stoke will come to play football and not kick their way to a point. I confess I’ve not seen much of them this season but in the interest of research and because I’ve been too ill to move from the chair I spent a little time catching up with their last couple of matches. In Arnautovic, Adam and Shawcross they have some renowned brutality to call upon if they sense any slackness from the referee. However Shaquiri and Allen are both skilful, capable players, and this isn’t the same one dimensional Stoke side we once knew.

Mark Hughes suggested Shawcross may not travel to London today so that’s encouraging. He also seemed confused when interviewed as to why his team can win at Old Trafford, Stamford Bridge, but not the Emirates. I suspect it’s down to them scoring less goals than us but I’m not an expert and lack his experience in the game. Stoke have been attempting to emulate the Welsh national teams 3-4-3 formation which served them so well in the Euros this summer. Asked whether this experiment would continue against Arsenal Hughes suggested that his tactics might be dictated by the players he had available to him.

So much for research. The simple fact is top teams don’t react to their opponents. Rather they try to impose their own style of play onto the match forcing the other side to adapt. Whatever the tactical approach Arsène will have seen it before and the players have the experience to deal with it. I sometimes wonder if confidence and current form don’t play a bigger role in any case. I’m not suggesting that if you played nine up front and one in midfield that it would all work out as long as the team was feeling chipper that day, just that there are more variables at play than how the line up looks on paper.

Anyway, the kettle has boiled and I need another Lemsip so I’m going to shuffle off back to bed and leave you to enjoy your Saturday. Here’s to three points and some scintillating football. See you at three.

 

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Facts, Damn Facts And Statistics

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Yesterday on PA Shottagunner posted a great thought provoking piece looking at some of the numbers behind Arsenal’s current achievements and also the tepid, if not a little wayward, response by the media to it.

Although a tad ‘stat-lite’ compared to his recent other excellent pieces, upon reading it I felt 98.8% of readers would, like me, be giving it the mid-week nod of approval, even if not everyone has the time to comment, being a school day and all that.

It is a sound article which, when taken in context with the earlier Shotta contributions, can be seen to have been almost predictive in nature, but is in danger now of appearing to state the obvious, as his earlier predictions have lined themselves up with our current realities.

That’s the nature of great predictions!

Not to intentionally do down anything Shotta has been writing in recent weeks, I’m not personally a huge fan of stats.

Whilst Shotta’s enumerations are not in any way invalid I prefer to look in addition at actual changes rather than the statistical runs. Why? Well, a side can put in a great 10 game unbeaten run but if most of the sides played are sitting in the lower half of the league, the stats become skewed by the absence of results against the top half. By a similar token, a side can have 60% possession in a game and still lose. I’m not saying Shotta has done this, merely pointing out the need for an element of caution when perusing the numbers (a caution I’m sure Shotta would echo, in any case).

So what would I have us look at?

Well, for a start, we evidently ‘won’ the transfer window, much to the mortification of United, at least. We spent record sums on some, we spent tiny numbers on others and we went for players with mid-range price tags on their boots. Significantly, the impact of so many of our buys from the last 18 months who have hit the ground running is hard to exaggerate, but in particular the integration of Xhaka, Mustafi and Elneny alone are of huge significance in adding to the grit already provided by the likes of Kos, Coq and Giroud. Ordinarily, in the past, we’d be worried about Stoke at the weekend but I think they will be more worried about us, because of this. So that’s a break from the past.

Next up – November. It saw us play a range of football against varying levels of competitors but, aside from the League Cup, it saw us undefeated and, for me of greater significance, little was added to the injury stats. We are as well placed, fitness-wise (even with the loss of Santi and Welbeck) as any other early December of recent years, and considerably better than most. So we survived November.

Apart from sitting very pretty in second place in the Premiership, we also topped the group in the Champions League, something we’ve not done for a number of years and have done so in some style, with few trips or stumbles. Yes, it’s a statement of where we are but it’s a symptom also, of our confidence, our expectations and our belief. None of us are surprised we did it although it took PSG to throw away an undeserved statistical advantage to allow it. A favourable home draw awaits us in the new year. Nice.

There is additionally, the small matter of the outstanding form of stalwarts such as Sanchez and Ozil. But also the no-less important contributions of relative ‘bit-part’ players – Gibbs, Giroud, Holding, to mention just 3 – who, with others, have brought true meaning to the phrase ‘strength in depth’ when applied to our ‘exceptionally exceptional’ squad. The return of Bellerin, Welbeck and Santi in addition to our existing personnel suggests that we have less to fear from the Injury Gods going forward. So form AND fitness are in welcome alignment for once.

And that’s also something that’s not been the case in recent years.

I mention all of this to back up Shotta’s analysis; these are the facts that led to the stats that got us to here.

It’s true, we’ve won nothing yet but we are winning against (or at least are not being beaten by) what has been put in front of us so far. As the above hopefully makes clear – and Shotta’s stats confirm – nothing about where we are today is down to one ‘lucky’ factor. It’s not just about Alexis turning it on as a ‘one man team’. Or, as happened for Leicester last term, an abnormal run of penalties ‘won’ under dubious circumstances. [*coughsspudscoughcough* – ed]

Arsenal are evidently reaping the rewards of a perfect storm. A storm that is, for once, so far working all in our favour. And 9 out of 10 fans capable of independent thought would probably thank the Wenger for that.

Even if the media or the WOB really aren’t up for it, just yet.

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Arsenal’s Deplorable Unbeaten Streak

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The silence is deafening. No media headlines, none of the uber bloggers beating the drum. Nobody seems to know that in the Premier League:

  • Arsenal are  unbeaten in the last 13.
  • Arsenal are unbeaten at Home in the last 6.
  • Arsenal are unbeaten Away in the last 7.

Nothing to see here? So it would seem if one relied on the Mainstream Media for significant, accurate football information. Not surprisingly a quick Google search for the dominant headlines relating to Arsenal FC revealed the usual putrid menu of mindless transfer rumour, sensationalism, conjecture and downright lies  dressed up as news by supposedly responsible newspapers and websites.

According to The Telegraph:

Arsenal willing to sell Mesut Ozil if he does not lower wage demands

The click-baiting Metro is not to be outdone:

Arsenal fans lose the plot as Alexis Sanchez is linked with Chelsea

The Mirror faithfully reflects The Telegraph:

Arsenal willing to listen to offers for Mesut Ozil?

Any of us with a modicum of common-sense and knowledge of how these players were persuaded by Arsene Wenger to join AFC will readily dismiss these headlines and stories as “fake news” peddled by the very Establishment media which is now hypocritically branding alternative non-mainstream sources as fake. This is something we Arsenal supporters are all too familiar with, having experienced ten years of them serving up the vilest calumnies and misrepresentations about Wenger and the Board during the post-Highbury years; woefully failing to explain to the public the importance of the club’s leadership giving emphasis to paying for a new stadium while competing with sugar-daddy clubs spending obscene amounts of outside money to buy their way to a title.

I can confirm that there was absolutely no headline from Google News highlighting the club’s 13 games unbeaten run. Yet if Arsenal was a heavyweight boxer there would be headlines screaming that this was an up and coming champion.  This is another reminder that sensationalism sells, at least in the short run.

But PA readers who follow my data-oriented analysis of the club’s progress and prospects are aware that establishing and maintaining a streak is one of the most important predictors of a title –winning team and certainly this has been the case of Arsenal under Arsene Wenger. I have only done three blogs on the subject (first, second and third), giving new meaning to the old adage that “repetition is the mother of learning”.  Some of my findings:

In their pomp at at Highbury, during Arsene’s winning years, the club would go on some statistically significant winning streaks, i.e. they were substantially above the mean averages in Wins. The 2001-02 season, in particular, Arsenal went on a rampage of 13 Wins out of 16 games which was marred by only 2 draws and 1 loss.

In contrast to Highbury, the Emirates has been characterized by:

…. the Club’s inability to achieve an above-average run of Wins, of similar magnitude to 10, 13 and 9 which characterized the title-winning years of 1997-98, 2001-02 and 2003-04 respectively.

I concluded two months ago from the recent streak that the barren years at the Emirates was coming to an end:

Now that Arsene/Arsenal is able to consistently spend on top-top quality players as well as patiently develop those coming through the academy, only the rabid anti-Wenger WOBs and weak-willed fans, who allow themselves to become victims of groundless doom-mongering by the media, would bet against Wenger at least regaining the ground lost over the past ten-years.

Two weeks later, when the club achieved an 8-game winning streak, I further opined:

Despite years of wilful misinformation by the mainstream media and so-called Arsenal bloggers, in their desire to have Arsene Wenger sacked, the primary reason why the club faded over the stretch was not having sufficient resources to build a squad with the requisite quality and depth, given the priority of having to pay for a new stadium.

Confirming it now had the resources to address a recurring deficiency, the club last summer made one of its largest ever splurges in the transfer market, acquiring a £35 million central defender who is a starter on the world-cup winning German national team, a £34 million midfielder from a highly rated champions-league level club, a £12 million pound striker who was among the top-11 in La Liga in 2015-16 and, best of all, a £2 million young central defender who can be called on to help out with the first-eleven at any time.

The fact that Arsenal, in last Tuesday’s decisive champions league match with Basel, could have six regular starters sitting on the bench yet win so decisively, provides the clearest possible evidence that the club has both quantity and quality resources to withstand the usual spate of injuries that in recent years have destroyed any real run at the title in the second-half of the season.

There will be the usual weeping and wailing and gnashing of teeth in the media and blogs as the Orcs from Stoke roll into the Emirates this Saturday. While football is a notorious enemy of complacency and hubris, given how Wenger was able to rotate the squad and keep bodies and minds healthy and sharp, anything less than a victory for the Gunners would count as a massive surprise.

In the mean time, let the mainstream media continue to ignore and downplay the club’s current form and sucker witless punters into believing their porkies that Ozil and Sanchez  are heading for a big payday in China. Let’s revel in the Rodney Dangerfield role of no respect.