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Arsenal: the Puzzle version

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Right people, turn your papers over, you have ten minutes complete the questions 

What are the most points ever scored by Arsenal football club in its EPL history? (three points for a win)

  1. a) 102
  2. b) 90
  3. c) 88
  4. d) 95

Who scored the most goals (7) in any game for Arsenal.

  1. a) Ted Drake
  2. b) John Radford
  3. c) Ian Wright
  4. d) Cliff Bastin

Ken Dodd’s Dad’s dog died last night-

  1. a)  Diddy?
  2. b) Doddy?
  3. c) do wah diddy, diddy dum diddy do?
  4. d)  What type of dog was it? One of those dogs that when the doorbell rings it goes into a sexual frenzy and starts trying to mate with anything? Hold on I thought this was an Arsenal blog! I mean did Ken, his Dad, or even his dog even support Arsenal? Grrr! When I met him on tour in the Levant, Samgrass said this would happen to society! Grrr! One sh-sh-sh-ould stick to f-f-f-ooter..?

On their way to the 1980 CWC final, Arsenal beat IFK Gothenburg 5-1 in the first leg, but what was the score in the second leg?

  1. a) 1-1
  2. b) 2-2
  3. c) 0-0
  4. d) Where is Gothenburg? Is that where all the Goths live? I met a Goth once, London type, said his name was Adrian De’ath. Slept in a coffin. Had his black hair all shaved close on one side, and it was long at the back like a mullet. I said “you look like a pale Chrissy Waddle!”. He didn’t say anything back.He just stared out of the window all mean and moody contemplating death, wind-swept moors,Lord Bryon and the band Bauhaus.

Which club did Patrick Vieira come from when he joined Arsenal?

  1. a) A.S Cannes
  2. b) Juventus
  3. c) AC Milan
  4. d) The Village Vanguard about 3 a.m.

Which player did Bruce Rioch bring to Arsenal?

  1. a) Dennis Bergkamp
  2. b) Ian Wright
  3. c) Jimmy Carter
  4. d) Dennis Einstein, the younger brother of Albert. Famous for his philosophical insights into the stratagems of pedantic formulations of incoherent a posteriori, and the culmination of the categorical imperatives within any coherent theory of truths as a subsequent notion of inductive reason as an attribute of the material cause of various teleological arguments that reason that Tottenham Hotspur are basically a form of oscillating stool type matter, as found in farmyards. He formulated this as: Lilywhite + Alectryon = shit. A formula that broke the scientific world into pieces, and lead the scientific naturalists and various Middlesex rambler/country types drop their aforementioned notions, and revise history and pay homage at the sign of the Gunner.

How many goals did Thierry Henry score for Arsenal?

a) 164

b) 228

c) 174

d) I knew a man at Oxford in 1924 called Henry, went together to Ascot to see the horse “Ponceious Pilot” in the 2.30. Came in first. Old Henry ran awf with me ticket, never saw him again, the rotter bagged all my ruddy cash! Never trusted anyone called Henry after that. Now Quiggan, thats a trustworthy name! Always trust a  Quiggan! I say you don’t perchance fancy a quick snifter do you, should be coming up to opening time soon? Mind you I knew a bloke called Snifter once too. Bohemian type, un-shaved,wore sandals in the winter. I said to the fellow, never above the latitude of Gibraltar should one been seen with that type of footwear. Of course,he ignored me, can’t think why? Those literary-set types are all the same-louche.

Victoria Concordia Crescit was the Arsenal motto for years, but what does it mean?

a) Victory comes from harmony

b) You man, go over there and attack those trenches, while I take dinner.

c) Victory is a crescent like joy

d) Dunno but wasn’t she one of the Spice girls? Or something like that anyway, one of them Boy-bands you get on that X factor show.

What position/style of play do Joke City adopt the most?

a)  left back

b ) right back

c ) I dunno I just can’t stand them. And I don’t want to talk about it, but we call it “parking the bus”.Grrr!

d) Ken Dodds Dads dogs dirty doggie style position.

How many games did Nigel Winterburn play for Arsenal?

  1. a) 335
  2. b) 359
  3. c) 584

d) Look you idiot, he didn’t play for Arsenal, he played for West Ham! Call your self a Gooner! I know these things I was at Anfield in 89! And me Grandad supported Arsenal.

Why was Liam Brady called “chippy”?

a) He comes from Chipping Ongar.

b) He liked chips

c) He collected small chips of wood from carpenters across the world.

d) He chipped the ball beautifully, every Arsenal fan knows that!

Which Arsenal player was called Supermac?

a) Frank McLintock

b) Malcolm MacDonald

c) Bob McNab

d) Me Mums mate, Alfie Mackintosh. He kept terrapins and weasels. He was a shallow man, cruel and insensitive. Took to ranting of an evening in his garden, said he wrote all of Shakespeare’s works. Ended up supporting Chelsea.

Who did the Arsenal Ladies beat in this years(2016) FAW Cup final?

a) Chelsea

b) Man City

c) Doncaster Belles

d) Notts County

Quiz complied by Boris Karl-Orf . Have a good weekend. Don’t worry them Gunners and the regulars will soon be back!

Thank you Mills, you have added a smile to my morning. And tomorrow I have a very special piece to put up from an occasional contributor, but one who produces quality not quantity. ( Taps nose and winks  knowingly) 

See you about 10.

Now where are my car keys ? 

old-person-confused

71 Comments

Arsenal: Get your Answers ready

img_2425  Mane Bonum populo affirmativo,

The dust settles, the planet turns on. We must return to more weighty matters.

As an antidote to the endless nothingness of the international football break a new feature on PositivelyArsenal in the form of a Quiz, prepared by Mills. Needless to say his specialised subject is Arsenal. May your mood be a little lighter. Bene habeas. 

When was Arsenal Football club established?

  1. a) 1886
  2. b) 1996
  3. c) 2006
  4. d) No idea I’m too busy watching Arsenal fan tv and vlogging myself for intricate details like that.

Where was ex- Arsenal player John Kosmina born?

  1. a) Pluto
  2. b) New Zealand
  3. c) Australia
  4. d) Behind the green door.

David O’Leary’s nickname was..?

  1. a) The Martian
  2. b) Spider
  3. c) Fly
  4. d) No idea, I only read books by David Icke.Just think under my finger nail there could be many worlds…the moons a secret alien base you know…

In what position did Ritchie Powling play?

  1. a) Missionary
  2. b) Midfield
  3. c) Defence
  4. d) No idea, but was he on TOWIE?

What was Liam Brady’s nickname ?

  1. a) Chippy
  2. b) fishy
  3. c) meat pie

d)Hey man, whoa man, I dunno man, I never came down after Woodstock man! Cain’t remember the 60s let alone nicknames.

Before Arsenal FC became Arsenal FC with various prefixes, they were called what?

  1. a) Dial Sq fc
  2. b) Fax machine fc
  3. c) email fc
  4. d) Snap chat fc of course! Facebook is only for old people -you’ve gotta keep up, I mean being a You Tube star is just so yesterday! Its the new Punk!

Le Grove is what?

  1. a) A lunatic asylum near Chipping Ongar.
  2. b) a place where old animals go to die.
  3. c) one of the Hells that Danté wrote about.
  4. d) some damp Urbex place that makes you want a crap when you go there as you feel you have the cold under the skin and all paranoid that the local farmer type is coming to give you a bollocking or worse.

In what place did Arsenal finish last year?

  1. a) 2nd
  2. b) 1st
  3. c) 3rd
  4. d) Look son, I want Wenger out, so it must have been 4th, I mean we always come 4th ffs! What we need is Mou to sort things out, he knows what he isn’t doing, if you know what I mean? Know what I mean? I blame Wenger! How come we always come fourth, George Graham now that was a manager!

Against which team did Sammy Nelson pull his shorts down after scoring for and against Arsenal that night?

  1. a) Coventry
  2. b) Spurs
  3. c) Man Ure
  4. d) Spurs, at least that’s what I read at “A Cultured Lefty Cheesy Footicus”.

Which is the most loathsome club in the world?

  1. a) Spurs
  2. b) Tottenham Hotspur
  3. c) The Spuds
  4. d) I simply have no idea as I’m too busy reading the Grauniad during the match. Rhubarb and Bikini atoll coconut smoothie anyone? I say that O’Zeel chaps rather good I hear?

Coming soon, part two!

Quiz created by Boris Karl-Orf.

 

 

50 Comments

The Arsenal Defense And The Jay-Z Phenomenon

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What does Arsenal’s defense have to do with currently famous American rap-artist, Jay-Z? Apart from him once posing in an Arsenal strip, there is a tangential connection. Stick around and I will share with you.

I will start with the premise that there is a large body of Arsenal fans hanging fiercely to the belief there is a defensive calamity lurking around the corner which, sooner or later, is somehow going to derail any title ambitions the club may have.  To dispel the notion this may be an exaggeration on my part I recommend you take a gander at the post-Ludogrets Arsecast by the Sage of Dublin to get a feel for this type of thinking.  By way of a disclaimer, my focus on The Sage is not with any malicious intent. To the contrary, he merits this attention because he has the biggest online presence among Arsenal fans, and in my opinion reflects and projects the feelings of a large swathe of the fanbase.

Back to my main point, it struck me from the podcast, despite the many encomiums and panegyrics devoted to Mesut Özil’s fantastic last minute goal, there was an underlay of discontent with the team’s defending. Ludogrets it seemed had no business scoring on the mighty Arsenal even though they had a bevy of slick, speedy, tricky Brazilians as attackers. This led him and his guest to conclude it will soon become a “pressing concern.”

This thinking is entirely consistent  with a recurring meme over recent years; Arsenal may play beautiful attacking football but can’t defend if their life depended on it.  The mainstream media have been happy to play up this fear with pundits and journos quick to jump on any defensive error to send Arsenal fans into panic. Not to be left aside, the majority of Arsenal bloggers, podcasters and tweeters whoring for RTs quickly fall into lockstep. Apparently memories of Squillaci and Senderos conceding some stupid goal or being bullied by an attacker have blinded many to actual facts and data.

Surely, if the meme was true, then Arsenal must have one of the leakiest defenses in the premier league, at least over the past 10 years, which by the way coincides with Wenger’s anni mirabiles since the glory years at Highbury.

Year Lge Pos GA GA Rank
2015/16 2 36 4
2014/15 3 36 3
2013/14 4 41 4
2012/13 4 37 2
2011/12 3 49 8
2010/11 4 43 4
2009/10 3 41 5
2008/09 4 37 5
2007/08 4 31 4
2005/06 4 37 3
Mean 4 39 4
Median 4 37 4

The table surely speaks for itself, doesn’t it? On average we performed like a 4th place team; ranking 4th in Goals Against whether on a Mean or Median basis, despite the calamities of Squillacci or Senderos.  Also apparent is that since 2012/12, when the defense was clearly a leaky sieve, conceding 49 goals, there has been a steady and gradual improvement to a stable 36 GA in the past two seasons, i.e. at 0.95 per game. At the beginning of 2010/11 the club signed a clearly promising but inexperienced defender in Laurent Koscielny and later paired him with the veteran international Per Mertesacker in 2011/12, and despite a rocky start they have over time been able to forge a reliable partnership which is at the root of the current improvement.

If Arsenal has been a 4th ranked team in goals conceded, how important is improving the GA in advancing up the tables and winning the title? As usual we rely on the data rather than being driven by panic when multiple goals are conceded, as was the case after Liverpool scored four goals to beat Arsenal in this season’s opener.

Year Lge Pos GA GA Rank
2015/16 Leicester 36 3
2014/15 Chelsea 32 1
2013/14 Man City 37 2
2012/13 Man Utd 43 4
2011/12 Man City 29 1
2010/11 Man Utd 37 3
2009/10 Chelsea 32 2
2008/09 Man Utd 24 1
2007/08 Man Utd 22 1
2005/06 Chelsea 22 1
Mean 31 2
Median 32 2

As usual the data maybe silent but speaks loudly. It reveals a definite trend where league winning teams are conceding more and more goals. From a low of 22 GA in 2005/06 and 07/08, for Chelsea and United respectively, the GA dramatically increased by 45% last year when Leicester conceded 36 goals. Man United was profligate in conceding 43 goals in 2012/13 but won the League relying on Van Persie to outscore the opposition (more on the importance of goal-scoring). The Mean and Media data clearly demonstrating  that teams who win the title tend to average 2nd in the GA ranking with 31 or 32 goals respectively. In other words title winning teams do not need the best defense in the league. (How loud should I shout that?)

Surely then there is no basis for early-season sensationalism about a poor defense when the club merely needs to reduce the GA by 4 goals, year-on-year, to hit the average GA of the last 10 title -winning teams. By signing Xhordan Mustafi, a defender,  for the second highest transfer fee ever in his tenure at the club, i.e.  £35 million, Wenger was making, to use that hackneyed cliche, a statement of intent. I already argued  in a prior blog, with the use of historical data, that this was the most important signing of the last transfer window.

As  already alluded, the data indicates that to win the league a club must consistently outscore the opposition and Win the vast majority of games. Draws will not cut it. This is strikingly obvious based on the massive point incentive for winning games; a 3:1:0 ratio for Win:Draw:Loss.

This is confirmed by an analysis of the data from the league winners of the past 20 years, which  provided the following statistics.

GF GA
Mean 79 32
Median 77 34
Std Dev 10 8
Mean Absolute Dev 8 6
% Std Dev  13% 24%
% Mean Absolute Dev 10% 19%

Without being too technical, the data is saying 87% of the time, an average of 79 goals will win a club the title. In comparison, there is only 76% probability that the average 32 Goals Against will guarantee a title. (Just a reminder that anything less than a 90-95% probability is useless as a reliably predictive statistic.) The data is providing confirmation that a club with ambitions of winning the premier league must emphasize goal-scoring while being at best #2 in defending. There have clearly been exceptions over the years, for example Chelsea under Mourinho who have given defending as much priority as goal-scoring.

I am fairly confident that despite the data and statistics, the majority of fans will cling grimly to their fear that Wenger is stuck in his “dated” Highbury philosophy and will give insufficient attention to defending and keeping clean sheets. Mind you Cech was golden glove winner in 2015-16 and in 2013-14 Wojciech Szczęsny shared the same prize with Cech.

I can only ascribe this to Confirmation Bias. According to Psychology Today:

(This) “occurs from the direct influence of desire on beliefs. When people would like a certain idea/concept to be true, they end up believing it to be true. They are motivated by wishful thinking. This error leads the individual to stop gathering information when the evidence gathered so far confirms the views (prejudices) one would like to be true.

“Once we have formed a view, we embrace information that confirms that view while ignoring, or rejecting, information that casts doubt on it. Confirmation bias suggests that we don’t perceive circumstances objectively. We pick out those bits of data that make us feel good because they confirm our prejudices.”

This I am afraid is more widespread than most of us at Positively Arsenal would care to admit.  This leads me to the only commentary I will make on these pages concerning the US presidential campaign, now coming to a close. I have observed many of my friends join lockstep with the Democrat candidate who made the infamous statement:

“To just be grossly generalistic, you can put half of Trump supporters into what I call the basket of deplorables,”

“Right? Racist, sexist, homophobic, xenophobic, Islamaphobic, you name it.”

Yet the thousands of Wikileak dumps indicate the deplorable meme could be fairly applied to the originator as well as Mr Trump. To put it mildly, it is easily a case of a candidate “seeing the mote that is in thy brother’s eye, but considerest not the beam that is in thine own eye”.

If you believe the Wikileaks are somehow tainted, even though their authenticity have never been questioned, then I commend to you last Friday’s get-out-the-vote concert in Philadelphia featuring Ms Clinton. In the run-up to her speech, the sometime gooner and rapping phenomenon Jay-Z left nothing to the imagination.

The rapper’s repertoire included his hit ‘F**kWithMeYouKnowIGotIt.’

He also performed a song called ‘Jigga My N***a,’ including a line that declared: ‘[I’m] Jay-Z, motherf***er!’

As he took the stage, a PA announcer blared: ‘You’re tuned into the motherf**king greatest!’

‘Ladies is pimps too, go and brush your shoulders off. N***a is crazy, baby, don’t forget that boy told you. Get that dirt off your shoulders.’

I don’t f**k with you. You little stupid-a** b***h, I ain’t f**kin’ with you.’

Racist, sexist, misogynist …. you name it. Yet Jay-Z is not pilloried as a “deplorable”. Isn’t this a classic example of what Psychology Today describes of us becoming prisoners of our assumptions of what Ms Clinton and the Democrat party represents and simply rejecting any data to the contrary?

Give this inevitable intersection between football and politics I urge my readers to honestly reflect to what degree we may be afflicted by old precepts and assumptions that are not rooted in reality. (I almost said data.) And may this blog remain as independent-minded as ever.

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Arsenal – More And Less Than A Derby

fullsizerenderGood morning Positive Arsenal fans.

A blustery Monday morning in Norfolk as we move into an interesting week, though the international football is to be our primary focus over the next few days.

Of yesterday’s game? A fair result punched out by two sides that worked hard for 95 minutes. Our visitors had the edge defensively and, other than a 10-15 minute period before half time, shut down just about everything we put together as we got within the final third. I do not think we were on our top game. We did not test Lloris enough. Again we saw our lads struggle in front of goal at home at the weekend, following a free-scoring midweek in Europe. I can’t imagine that sequence is just coincidence, but I would be hard pushed to put down the cause to fatigue. Perhaps even the very best players find it hard to flick backwards and forwards between the different demands of CL and PL football every few days?

Us?  Though not classic Wengerball we had good performances from a number of our lads. Hector I thought was Man of the Match, very mobile, very sharp, and looked most likely to get on the score sheet during the second half. Granit performed well and there was no evidence of the red mist descending in what, on a couple of occasions, flared up into the usual NLD handbag waving contest. Theo maintained his good form and was always involved. I was as surprised as he was when he was hooked. On the downside I thought Alex Iwobi did not look comfortable or show us his best. I would have liked to see him take on the donkey Walker more, one on one. Usually he is only too happy to dribble into the box but yesterday that part of his game was missing. I think we needed something “unexpected” like that to crack the Spurs defence. At 20-years old and with his debut just one year ago his form will go up and down so no worry there. I suspect the youngster may get a rest with Aaron coming in.

Did we miss Santi ? I think we did and I look forward to his restoration at Trafford Park for the lunchtime kick off on the 19th.

Them? I read in the mainstream media that the “three at the back” tactical master-stroke devised by Pochettino was our downfall?  I don’t think so. I thought one of their “three” was an accident waiting to happen even before his silly own goal. (Excellent call by the linesman btw for our goal – I was convinced it was offside until the third showing on the TV). Dembele earned a lot of praise in the mainstream media as Spuds’ best player, indeed the official MOTM on BT. He did well but Son was a right handful, he left Mustafi trailing on one occasion. He was constantly busy. The Korean also was commendably sporting in not taking Cech’s head off his shoulders after the horrible slip our keeper suffered. Plenty of players would have gone for the ball. That was a bad moment.

Not the send-off into two weeks of the international wilderness that we were hoping for but a point gained nonetheless. I see that Ozil has been given a break by Joachim Low which is helpful to preserve the player for a few more weeks. Fingers crossed the rest come back safe and sound, and ready to nail down the coffin lid of the Portuguese.

Vote early, vote often and enjoy your week.

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Arsenal Versus Spurs: Love Your Neighbour, But Maintain Your Fence

old and new

Because we have a strict door policy here on Positively Arsenal we were, in the early days when anybody cared to take any notice of us, decried for all sorts of reasons. Elitism, snobbery, and being anti democratic to name but three. Yesterday, in a spirit of what I can only assume was one of masochistic self loathing, I was scrolling through tweets from the twisted, spite fuelled, anti intellectual, garbage filled brains of rabid Donald Trump supporters and this blog sprang to mind.

I know what you’re thinking. In a body of work rightly famed for its non sequiturs that one takes the biscuit Stew – but please, bear with me. You see I have been saying for many years, in a conscious or unconscious echo of the late great Bill Hicks, that the trend in what is laughingly termed ‘reality’ TV doesn’t simply lower the standards of television it actually lowers the standards of humanity. It is a dangerous and wicked phenomenon with consequences which have the potential to bring down civilisation as we know it.

Not my most popular conversational opener while sat with she who must be obeyed on a Saturday night as Simon Cowell’s frightening and maliciously lascivious grin is beamed into our living room, but a belief I hold dear nonetheless. The rise of Trump is, however, the only proof one really needs.

As host to one of, if not the, very worst of these appalling programmes, one that celebrates the disgusting ethos of competitive capitalism the man and his values were constantly broadcast into the brains of millions of voters for hours on end. Their own values were corrupted, their standards lowered to the point that now when he spouts utter baseless drivel like a cartoon character from the pages of Viz they whoop it up and cannot wait to scratch a cross beside his name.

Just as in the political world the coverage of football has similarly plummeted to levels of degeneracy unimaginable when first I followed the beautiful game. When the blogging revolution began it seemed humankind had discovered a miraculous antidote. Rather than being spoon fed garbage by intellectual midgets with a slavish adherence to the predetermined editorial line, we could read the thoughts of fellow enthusiasts and even chip in with our own reflections on the players, the game, the manager, the price of pies. In short, the whole shebang. Everything we held dear about our chosen sport was up for discussion. We weren’t being told what to think any more, it was a beautiful new dawn.

Of course, we all know what happened next. Like mainstream pop absorbing the anti establishment spike of punk rock and converting it into something less challenging, safer for the masses to handle, so the blogs moved inexorably closer to the papers. The black hole of mediocrity sucked in the brief flickering flame of hope, and darkness reigned supreme. So George found this dusty corner, swept the floor, put out a few chairs and invited some friends around. First however, he tended to the most important thing of all – a big strong lock on the door.

If the anyone wants sanctuary from the howling wasteland of anti intellectual hatred, bigotry, and  bias they only have to knock politely and they’re greeted with open arms. Otherwise they are welcome to remain outside to continue their crawl across the graveyard of individual thought where they’ll find plenty of sieg heiling conformity to satisfy their dark cravings.

What, if anything, does this have to do with a North London derby? Bugger all if I’m honest but I’ve previewed a fair few of these encounters while serving my time among George’s writing drones and there’s only so many ways of saying the same thing you know.

This year, however, the approaching encounter does feel different. There is a sense that while still rooted in our shadow, the upstart pretenders whose only real claim to fame is having such a fine club as Arsenal to call their rivals, are as close to us as they’ve ever been. Only a catastrophic last gasp collapse in their morale, allied to canny, calm and above all experienced leadership from Arsène saw us step over them into second place last time around.

They look like genuine contenders to me, and the fact that we are more than a quarter of the way into the fixture list and they are still unbeaten tells its own story. Granted they’ve not been as invulnerable in cup competitions but early exits from such distractions must only help focus their sights on the Premier League. It’s no secret that this Arsenal squad is also as strong as it has been in a long while. Any improvements down the Lane have been matched in North London’s more prestigious football establishment, but even so the days when we could look forward to a derby match as little more than a guaranteed three points with the potential for some light entertainment along the way are over.

I shan’t pretend to have any special knowledge of our opponents today. Wednesday’s match against Leverkusen was the first time I’ve seen them play this season and apart from Hugo Lloris I couldn’t pick any of them out in a line up. What can’t be questioned is that Pochettino has them organised defensively and playing with a greater resilience than the fragile show pony Spurs sides of old. The one thing I did notice and was accused of being a Kloppite for saying it, was that the work Bayer 04 did off the ball unsettled them and they didn’t respond well to the pressure. It is of course a given that all teams need to work hard to regain possession but I believe that in some games we don’t do this as well as we might.

Every so often we appear content to leave all of that kind of work to Francis Coquelin and while the boy never disappoints we are more successful when two or three players pressure the man on the ball from the moment possession is lost. We won’t win the game with aggressive defence though, I get that. Fortunately we have a blend of the inventive, the clinical and the downright impudent up front which, should we succeed in stopping them playing, ought to be enough to bring home the bacon and put an end to all this silly invincible talk. Having said that neither side is terribly good at losing these days and I wouldn’t discount a draw, in fact it does seem the more likely outcome.

If you are at the match I shall listen out for you, if not I’m afraid I won’t be here to share it with you. My band practice today has been scheduled by some wrestling fan who has no understanding of real sport and so chose a start time of 1pm. As a consequence I shall have to wait until Football Origin have the match up this evening. The rest of you have fun and just make sure the door is locked, it’s a cold, horrible place out there.

75 Comments

Did The Arsenal Board Lie To Us? Well No – And Yes!

mark-carneyArsenal “lied” to the fans. They said we would be as big as Bayern Munich. They said we would be able to compete financially with any club in the world. Blah, blah feckin blah.

How many time have you seen or heard such bollocks? It is said, repeated and accepted by the brain dead all over the Arsenal fanbase. It can be only one of two things that allow this ignorance, either those saying it, and believing it, are genuinely stupid, or they are choosing to pretend to be stupid.

Arsenal now they make more £££ on matchday than any other football club in the world. When the stadium move was planned, that was the goal. It’s an incredible achievement that it has now been realised.

However when the move was being considered, matchday income would have made up the vast majority of income. So had the circumstances remained the same, we would actually have been one of the biggest clubs in the world, right now. The problem is that “right now” match day income is less than 25% of the income of big clubs. The rest comes from commercial sponsorships and TV . So that means we are still considerably behind the really, really big boys.

Of course people will then ask why our commercial income doesn’t match theirs ? They will insist “we should be doing better”. This insistence is made from a position of total ignorance and lack of understanding.

Commercial deals are given on the worth of the brand name, which more or less comes from the global standing of the club based on recent and historical success. That is where Arsenal fall down, historically we were miles behind Liverpool and United, at least in the terms of global support. So when the worth of kit deals etc. are calculated, we are in the queue behind them. You know 5 Champions Leagues and all?

The rise of world wide popularity of the Premier League also means the most successful PL teams are ahead of us there too. City and Chelsea are at an advantage because their owners have chosen to buy them domestic (and in Chelsea’s case European) success. Sponsors not only know about the recent success of these two pretenders, but they know that their owners will continue to plough money in, in order to get more success , over the term of any deals struck. That makes them a more valuable investment than Arsenal.

The only way to make us more valuable, to sponsors,  is to win more.  But in a league where at least three teams can massively outspend us, that is no easy task. It’s not as easy as saying “we should be doing better”. The fact is we are doing better, a lot better. But the other clubs not only have the advantage in buying players, they also have the advantage when it come to being sponsored.

All this is before we even consider that the petro-fuelled clubs also sponsor themselves.I think City’s training kit is sponsored to an absurd extent by, basically,  Mansour’s brother.

So before we accuse the board of “lying” we should consider that they have in fact achieved the goal they set out too. They just failed to see into the future , just like every other board in the world. No one could have foreseen the change to the football landscape,  especially the serial moaners within our fanbase.

The reality is that our board has done remarkably well, given the changes in revenue streams and the global recession that they encountered, and in the midst of a property development based stadium move. So let us  celebrate the good work they have done rather than ignore the difficulties and demand, that somehow by magic, we achieve par ( or better)  with Real Madrid.

P.S. This was published last night, but this reply from our own Arsenal Andrew should be read with it,as it perfectly sums up why certain misconceptions were allowed to exist.

 

In terms of the so-called ‘big picture’, Arsenal clearly ARE now competing with the biggest clubs for the biggest trophies and the best players football has to offer.

That the club told PR-led porkies at certain points in the journey is largely beyond dispute but the price we may have otherwise paid in a collapsed credibility and an impaired ability to attract the best young talent during these years was potentially catastrophically high.

To any of us who turned up for Bergkamp’s summer testimonial, the sight of the bare bones of a stadium greeted us around about the same time the club told us we had money to spend on replacing players like Vieira and his ilk.

The reality was that at one point we were struggling to pay the players’ wages and years of austerity lay ahead of us.

Actually winning stuff was the least of our worries; the possibility of ‘competing’ was the height of our ambition and even that rested on Arsene’s extraordinary abilities to out-perform every other coach on the planet in terms of £’s spent for points/league places gained.

When Arsene re-signs at the end of this season it’s likely that The Wonder Years could really be upon us, as an already mightily strong squad continues to strengthen and compete and yes, win, at the highest levels.

But those first 6 or 7 post-Emirates seasons will go down as The Miracle Years. It turns out we had not a bean to spend, contrary to the club’s official position. THAT was the Board’s lie, but frankly, my dears, who gives a damn?

Some of us, at least, could see the bigger picture. Some of us could see what we are about to become.

That others chose not to support the manager or the club during these extraordinary times will be a matter for their conscience alone.

I’m just glad and proud that my conscience – and that of the friends I found during this era – is as crystal clear as the day I started supporting Arsenal Football Club.”

 

16 Comments

Did The Arsenal Board Lie To Us ?

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Arsenal “lied” to the fans. They said we would be as big as Bayern Munich. They said we would be able to compete financially with any club in the world. Blah, blah feckin blah.

How many time have you seen or heard such bollocks? It is said, repeated and accepted by the brain dead all over the Arsenal fanbase. It can be only one of two things that allow this ignorance, either those saying it, and believing it, are genuinely stupid, or they are choosing to pretend to be stupid.

Arsenal now they make more £££ on matchday than any other football club in the world. When the stadium move was planned, that was the goal. It’s an incredible achievement that it has now been realised.

However when the move was being considered, matchday income would have made up the vast majority of income. So had the circumstances remained the same, we would actually have been one of the biggest clubs in the world, right now. The problem is that “right now” match day income is less than 25% of the income of big clubs. The rest comes from commercial sponsorships and TV . So that means we are still considerably behind the really, really big boys.

Of course people will then ask why our commercial income doesn’t match theirs ? They will insist “we should be doing better”. This insistence is made from a position of total ignorance and lack of understanding.

Commercial deals are given on the worth of the brand name, which more or less comes from the global standing of the club based on recent and historical success. That is where Arsenal fall down, historically we were miles behind Liverpool and United, at least in the terms of global support. So when the worth of kit deals etc. are calculated, we are in the queue behind them. You know 5 Champions Leagues and all?

The rise of world wide popularity of the Premier League also means the most successful PL teams are ahead of us there too. City and Chelsea are at an advantage because their owners have chosen to buy them domestic (and in Chelsea’s case European) success. Sponsors not only know about the recent success of these two pretenders, but they know that their owners will continue to plough money in, in order to get more success , over the term of any deals struck. That makes them a more valuable investment than Arsenal.

The only way to make us more valuable, to sponsors,  is to win more.  But in a league where at least three teams can massively outspend us, that is no easy task. It’s not as easy as saying “we should be doing better”. The fact is we are doing better, a lot better. But the other clubs not only have the advantage in buying players, they also have the advantage when it come to being sponsored.

All this is before we even consider that the petro-fuelled clubs also sponsor themselves.I think City’s training kit is sponsored to an absurd extent by, basically,  Mansour’s brother.

So before we accuse the board of “lying” we should consider that they have in fact achieved the goal they set out too. They just failed to see into the future , just like every other board in the world. No one could have foreseen the change to the football landscape,  especially the serial moaners within our fanbase.

The reality is that our board has done remarkably well, given the changes in revenue streams and the global recession that they encountered, and in the midst of a property development based stadium move. So let us  celebrate the good work they have done rather than ignore the difficulties and demand, that somehow by magic, we achieve par ( or better)  with Real Madrid.

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Arsenal – It rhymes with Optimum

cwnz9gmwgaayioeGood morning Positives,

I don’t think any of us were surprised by the result last night as we had been, and were again in Sofia, a better equipped football team than the Bulgarian champions. We acknowledged Ludogorets had some talent and, at home, would probably be a more difficult prospect to beat. However we expected to win, we expected to go through into the last 16, again.

Equally I doubt any of us expected to win in the way we did, fighting back after an opening fifteen minutes in which the hosts shocked us twice. I have checked the script and there was no reference whatsoever to falling behind by two goals, then having to clamber back into the game.

Of the game itself Arsene clearly decided that a decisive step toward qualification was required and started with the strongest 11 available, bar Cech. As matters turned out his caution was well placed as the opening few minutes of the contest was wide open, Sanchez spinning and cutting through the greenshirts, with the Bulgars again raiding fast and wide as they had in London. The first goal conceded was a cock up, from the strange decision by the referee to award a handball, to some static defending by Kosc and Mustafi, a scuffed clump by Cafu (or possibly an own goal by Jenks but we will ignore that) before bobbling past a flat footed Ospina. It was not a classic. Shit happens, but shit has consequences. Sparked by that gift the home side raced forward again, the irritating Cafu turned Kieran inside out, and bingo – 2-0. The second Ludogorets goal was rather good I thought.

Just for Eddy I have retrieved the offending picture from the DT site;

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Were we unhorsed ? Did we panic – Was it Zagreb Part II ?

Not in the least. A commendable mental strength showed itself following the double setback. We immediately regained control of the ball, worked hard, tackled cleanly and pressed the home side back, creating space and chances around their penalty area. I sensed our lads had given themselves a collective slap and woken up properly. They stood a little taller and straighter. Two well taken goals from Xhaka and Olivier arrived as the result of our dominance. By half time we looked set for the victory and a further two or three goals.

And as I anticipated the second half of one way traffic and the game effectively over by the 70th minute or thereabouts exactly the opposite happened. The men in green, who did not appear to have a clue about defending in the preceding three halves of football, came out in two banks of four and frustrated our attacking efforts. Larry laboured hard, but on scraps. We seemed suddenly tired, listless, out of ideas.

On the break they menaced us and after a first half in which our keeper had almost nothing to do, Ospina was called onto make two saves from Wanderson that on another night would have left us stuffed and 4-2 down. In contrast to the first half it was Borjan in the home goal who had his feet up. Not only did the Bulgars play far more organised and intelligent football in the second half, they also flung themselves on the turf squealing every time they were touched, although on a couple of occasions Granit’s ‘touches’ might well have been grounds for the yellow card that he eventually earned. By 80th minute the game was at stalemate, with Ludogorets content to take a well earned point.

And then, out of the blue, a quick, long pass by Elneny, released Ozil. Our German drove straight toward the goal, scoped the ball over the advancing Borjan, left two defenders on their arse ( see above), and tapped in our winner, our saving moment, our vindication. IT IS WHAT WE DO!

That the game as decided by an exquisite goal from the most talented footballer on the pitch was appropriate.

What an odd referee, very good at times, but a unique view of what constitutes handball with decisions given against both sides on the slightest manual contact. I shall keep an eye on Mr Nijhuis.

On we go then, Europe settle for three weeks – Tottingham next and a very different challenge.

Enjoy your Wednesday.

 

153 Comments

Arsenal Versus Ludogorets: The Norway Of The Year

Bridge In Greyfield Woods

The last time I had anything even remotely resembling a proper job, and we are going back into the halcyon mists here, there was a rhythm, a recognisable pattern to my work year. I was shackled in the engine room of academia, not teaching of course – they don’t allow inarticulate, uneducated oafs from the labouring classes to stand in front of young people and tell them how the world works – God forbid.

Only the most servile and robotic clones capable of adhering to the strictest codes and never risking an original thought are considered fit to be teachers these days. Which is why it’s a good job young people have men like Arsène Wenger in their world. If you want someone to look up to, look no further I say. In a life of insane rush and avaricious clambering having a man capable of maintaining a calm equilibrium in the face of abuse, malicious misrepresentation and an all round lack of appreciation can only provide a positive counter balance.

When I was working at the college each term had a particular character and I evolved different strategies to get through the individual challenges posed by them all. November was a bastard. The novelty of the new academic year had long since evaporated, the clocks had reverted to proper time and darkness was gathering all around. Christmas was too far away and too expensive to contemplate and the true misery and futility of their surroundings had begun to sink into the students resulting in the predictable but nonetheless unpleasant behaviour patterns which inevitably ended at my door.

So I joined Nanowrimo. Because I would be writing against a deadline and under pressure every day the month simply flew by. Before I knew it I would be opening my advent calendar and contemplating two weeks off in the dysfunctional bosom of my family.

For some reason known to the universe but not to me I approach the November fixture list in a similarly uncertain state of mind. Looking back over the years the results simply do not bear witness to any annual meltdown in the eleventh month. This time last season wasn’t the most fun an Arsenal supporter can have, but generally we’ve won more than we’ve lost so I can’t explain the trepidation.

It may simply be that the bleakness of my outlook infects my thoughts  where football is concerned, and let’s face it, we all look at the world through our own distorted lens. Those who think a player is poor will, in their minds, amplify his errors and overlook his positive contribution to the team, and we all do the reverse for the players we love.

In reality then November should hold no more fears than any other month. It isn’t the time when Arsenal traditionally ‘melt down’ as the vacuous lickspittles of the press would have us believe. It simply means another series of fixtures for the players to navigate, all of which are significant regardless of the opposition.

We kick off this mini campaign with the usual worries about injuries. Our last match saw us robbed of Lucas, Monreal, Theo and Santi while Danny is not even projected to start his rehabilitation into the first team until next month. Olivier and Aaron are only ready for a few minutes from the subs bench and so we can expect a few players to be putting in quite a shift before November is out.

One thing the boss could do is rest people for cup games where he deems the opposition pose a significantly lesser threat. Do Ludogorets fall into this category? I’m not so sure. In one respect the argument could be put forward that as we comprehensively gubbed them less than a fortnight ago then yes they are a decidedly weaker team than, say, the Spurs side we will face on Sunday. Results seldom tell the full story though do they? For much of the first half the Bulgarians played some neat football and only the ever alert David Ospina kept us from falling behind. In their own stadium and with a point to prove to their supporters they may not be the pushovers that six nil suggests.

I am of course falling into an obvious trap. That of looking ahead beyond the match in question, contemplating the fixture list for the month ahead and ignoring the age old mantra  of one game at a time. Fortunately enough I’m not the one who matters here. The man in charge who’s decisions actually have an impact will be fully focussed on tonight’s fixture and whatever team he sends out will, I’m sure, be properly prepared and more than capable of getting the result.

Right, I have to find two thousand words for the first page of this year’s novel so you’re going to be on short commons today and for the rest of November I’m afraid. Unfortunately I am not one of nature’s planners. I sit down each year with an empty page in front of me and an equally empty head. They call it writing by the seat of your pants. I hate that I’m like this, it makes the world a terrifying place to navigate and I wish I could spend the preceding eleven months planning but as with every blog I write for you I’m afraid I just have to start scribbling and hope something comes out of it.

If you’re travelling to Razgrad tonight then I wish you a safe journey, if not I’ll see you here from seven forty five. Or eight forty five as my body clock still deems it to be. Either way I’m as excited for another European night as every other supporter  – whatever time of day or year it happens to be.

29 Comments

The Goal Is 86 Points – Arsene Wenger

Goals Green Road Sign with Dramatic Clouds and Sky.

Something really important was stated by Arsene at last week’s AGM, which from my reading has hardly been picked up by the football commentariat and especially the Arsenal bloggers whom one would assume are supposed to support the club.  He said:

“…. the championship will be decided between 82 to 86 points and what we have learnt since the start of the season is every game is a fight and you need absolutely to be at your best to win. That means we have to be really focused on details, keeping the energy inside our club but even more inside our team as every single detail can get you points”

No one, so far, has picked up on the importance of the figure he quoted. Is the goal of 86 points reasonable? Is it achievable?

Reasonable? Given my focus on data, which is now my niche on PA, it was easy to locate the last 20 years of data on PL winners. I calculated the mean average in points to win the league is 85 and the median is 86. The comparable PPG is 2.24 and 2.28 respectively.  The fact that Leicester won with 81 points last year is an outlier and so is Man United’s 80 points in 2010-11. Since 2003-04, except for those two, the minimum for a club to win the league was 86 points. The mean absolute deviation is 4.4 leading the boss to put an absolute minimum points at 82 points. That low figure is chancing it. Clearly his goal to be on the safe side must be 86 points.

Achievable? Given the energy and effort of the squad for the first 10-games, there is no doubt in my mind that they are committed to the goal. But what of the fans? It will be a herculean effort as the club ended last season at 71 points, 15 less than the goal. The PPG last year was 1.87 vs a goal of 2.26 which is a 30% improvement. As I will discuss in further detail later,the PPG is currently 2.3, which is exceeding the goal.  Can the club sustain this PPG?

In my last blog I demonstrated that since 2003-04 Arsenal usually starts with a strong PPG in the first half of the season but has been generally unable to sustain this level of consistency in the second half. I put this down to lack of squad depth to overcome injuries to key players. In previous blogs I have demonstrated that quality signings at great cost were made last summer in key areas; Perez (forward), Xhaka (midfield) and Mustafi (defence). This is in addition to Elneny, Gabriel, Ozil and Sanchez in prior years, all of which has made Arsenal a greater force quantitatively and qualitatively compared to project youth and our last title challenge in 2007-08 which was terminated by the hacking of Eduardo.

But even with these signings by Arsenal, other often richer clubs have also made improvements. City, United Chelsea, United and Liverpool have signed quality reinforcements both in terms of players and management. The current trainwreck at Manchester United is not necessarily an indictment on the quality of the new players but on the character of the new manager whose rancid reputation preceded him.

But as Leicester proved it is not necessarily the amount spent on signings, it is the the energy and commitment of the team and of those who support the club with makes the qualitative difference. With this commitment Leicester achieved a 40 plus swing in points from one year to the next. Compare that to the required 15 points swing by Arsenal.

If the team is committed then it is the duty of blogs like PA to educate the fans, to get them fully behind the goal. As Leicester demonstrated. the united energy of the fans can help the club get over the line when the going gets rough. Every point will count until we get to 86!

(BTW: It is self-affirming that Arsene puts similar emphasis on data as we do at PA.)

The Significance of 23 points

I’ve got to be honest. Nothing major happened statistically for Arsenal this past week-end. The club was supposed to beat Sunderland and duly obliged by dispatching them 1-4 despite the valiant attempts by referee Martin Atkinson to tilt the playing field in their favor.  In yesterday’s match report on this blog, Arsenal Andrew did an excellent job of dissecting the strange decision-making of PGMOL’s top FIFA referee, which I won’t repeat. Safe to say, the Gooners demonstrated they had sufficient firepower in reserve to turn around what was looking like a masterful stitch-up job into an autumnal canter to the winner’s enclosure.

But data-wise, after 10 games, there is no statistical difference between the top-5 teams in the league listed below.

  W D L GF GA GD PTS PPG
Man City 7 2 1 24 9 15 23 2.3
Arsenal 7 2 1 23 10 13 23 2.3
Liverpool 7 2 1 24 13 11 23 2.3
Chelsea 7 1 2 21 9 12 22 2.2
Spurs 5 5 14 5 9 20 2.0

Being this early in the competition, none of the top-3 teams in particular have been able to demonstrate a sustained winning streak, which is a clear signal of their superiority over the rest of the league.  As I have demonstrated from historical data, in all previous title runs in the Premier League, Arsenal has had at minimum a 9-game winning run. Their most recent streak ended at 5 wins. Victory over Sunderland may signal the start of another winning series. Time will tell.

To demonstrate how misleading early season form can be it is useful to compare the 2016 data above with 2015’s  below.

  W D L GF GA GD PTS PPG
Man City 7 1 2 24 8 16 22 2.2
Arsenal 7 1 2 18 8 10 22 2.2
West Ham 6 2 2 22 13 9 20 2.0
United 6 2 2 15 8 7 20 2.0
Leicester 5 4 1 20 17 3 19 1.9

As we all know by now, after barely missing relegation the previous season, Leicester City had a surprisingly bright start and kept improving as the season wore on and won the title by 10 points. West Ham and United could not sustain their early spark and failed to make the top-4.

More significant, in my opinion, is the fact that the top two teams at this point of the season are the same this and last year. Despite Leicester’s success, as I demonstrated in my pre-season predictions, based on 20-years of PL data, there are only four teams with a 95% probability of winning the league (United, City, Arsenal and Chelsea).  Any statistician (I am not) will tell you that anything less than 95% probability is useless as a predictive tool.

Because of the predictability of the data for the clubs named, it is easy for any rational football fan, especially denizens of this blog, to dismiss as a load of bollocks the nonsense spouted by the majority of ESPN and BBC pundits, who, at the beginning of this and prior years, “predicted” Arsenal will not make the top-four, much less win the title.  As is well known Arsenal has never failed to make the top-4 in any of the past 20-years, all under Arsene Wenger.

Furthermore, the historical data is very predictive about making title challenges; when Wenger has the resources to strengthen the team and not have to sell his best players, Arsenal usually wins the league or comes very close. Data from the recent AGM that the club is less reliant on player sales for income, £65m in 2011-12 compared to £2m in 2015-16, is a strong indicator of Arsenal’s increasing potential of winning the league.

As I frequently emphasize, the commercial media has a vested interest in preying on fear and despair (two instincts that reside in almost every human being) among Arsenal fans. They do this by sensationalizing any real or imagined setback the club may suffer. Thus at the start of this season when the club lost 3-4 at home to Liverpool the media and their echo-chamber among Arsenal blogs, went into total meltdown. James McNicholas, aka Gunnerblog, opined in his ESPN blog on August 14th:

“Although the Gunners fought back from 4-1 down to make the scoreline respectable, there weren’t too many encouraging signs in this performance.”

Surely there is something amiss when a “Gunner” ignores a fightback from 3 goals down to coming within one goal of an equalizer, and instead decries the performance. Two and a half  months later this doom-mongering is exposed for what it is, abject sensationalism:

  W D L GF GA GD PTS PPG
2015 7 1 2 18 8 10 22 2.2
2016 7 2 1 23 10 13 23 2.3
% Chg Plus Minus Plus Minus Plus Plus Plus

Improvements year-on-year:

  • Less Draws
  • More Goals Scored
  • Better Goal Difference
  • More Points
  • Better PPG

A reliance on data allows us to ignore the McNicholases and their ilk. While the sample size is small, making it premature to draw any conclusions, it is clearly observable that, performance-wise, there have been far more positives than negatives in 2016 compared to 2015.

Only 63 more points to make 86.