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Arsenal – Balance and Composure

 

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A few words from @MuppetGunner

The wheels have come off the bus. Our main focus should be to take a step back from the hysteria and vitriol and try to analyse what is going wrong. I didn’t see the Liverpool game, but saw the Chelsea, West Brom and Crystal Palace games. In between those, the Watford defeat at home on a somewhat unreliable stream.

In the past we were able to point to either injuries and absentees, usually causing an imbalance in an area of the team. If 5 or 6 key players were missing, it was understandable why there was a home or away defeat. Our best players would return, and consistency would be restored. Yes, in the last 13 years it was a top 4 kind of consistency, but I suspect that would be welcome now. What is happening now is difficult to fathom. The naysayers will say this was always on the cards. However, it is surprising to me that after bolstering the squad with the £84 million spend in the summer, we are currently in 7th. We have come 3rd or 4th with savagely derided players, including Bendtner, Denilson, Flamini. We add Mustafi, Xhaka and Lucas, and we appear to have gone backwards.

To consider the new players, it cannot be Lucas that is the problem, as he has hardly played. Xhaka and Mustafi? Could it be that these 2 have weakened the team significantly? It is interesting that when we had an 18 match unbeaten run before Xmas, the fans were purring – Xhaka was the next Petit or Vieira, depending on who you read, and Mustafi was a class acquisition. After the injury to Mustafi, the turning point was in the 1st game he was absent, the 2-1 defeat at Everton, which would seem to point to a need for the player. But in recent matches, there have been fingers pointed.

Could it be more down to the overall squad? It is worth pointing out that around Xmas time fans were generally positive. Usually, prior to the January transfer window, there are demands for new signings. Apart from one or two blogs, these calls were quiet. The 18 match unbeaten run and new players from the summer pointed to general optimism. We were well stocked in all positions, particularly in attack. One significant absentee though, was Santi Cazorla, his last game on October 19th. The absence of Cazorla since late January has been plain to see. A Wengerball continuity player, who excels in tight spaces, is effective in defence, and is able to link well to Ozil and Sanchez. In his absence, our midfield has suffered. Too slow at times, caught out at Watford and at Liverpool and Chelsea largely bypassed.

So given the optimism about the squad, in Cazorla’s absence we should have been able to turn to others – Ox, Ramsey, Xhaka, Coquelin and El Nenny. It is here that we have to pause for thought. How many of these players fit the traditional mould of a Wengerball midfielder, who is able to accelerate at defences and operate in tight spaces? I think maybe Ox, and maybe Ramsey, but Xhaka, Coquelin and El Nenny have different attributes.

Xhaka is a good distributor of the ball, but has suffered particularly in the absence of Cazorla. He has been partnered by Coquelin, Ramsey and El Nenny, but there is still uncertainty about who his regular partner should be.

Ramsey has a great engine, but has had injury problems this season and has been inconsistent.

El Nenny is a good continuity player, but seems to lack cutting edge at the highest level to be an attacking threat. But he offers reasonable defensive solidity.

Ox can take on players, but despite some good performances, has not been able to cement a place in centre midfield, as seen by the recent inclusion of Xhaka and El Nenny. Overall, none of these are yet to compensate for Cazorla, and we miss Wilshere and Rosicky as well, for these players would be more suitable replacements to partner Xhaka. Ox and Ramsey would probably be the best partners out of the previous crop, but it just hasn’t worked out so far. Ramsey has made just 7 starts, with 14 overall appearances. This is frustrating, as we could have done with the reprisal of his partnership with Arteta in 2014, this time with Xhaka.

The midfield imbalance leads us to a team that is largely unrecognisable to any of the great teams Wenger has created in the past. We have seen Ozil drop deeper, for example in the West Ham game, to make a 4-3-3, and some see this as a way of patching up the disparity of the no 6 and no 8.

Going back to Xhaka and Mustafi, if they are in transition, we can almost say the same of Welbeck. He hasn’t really looked sharp since his return, and it looks like he needs matches to achieve a cutting edge. Monreal looks to have waned, and Bellerin seems to be suffering from an ankle injury sustained in January.

Given all of these issues, the imbalance in the midfield, the lack of consistency and underperformance of certain players, the inevitable conclusion amongst a section of fans is to scream “Wenger Out”. They see him as being the man who made the signings, and therefore should take responsibility and go. We haven’t made a serious title challenge in 13 years they say, and this is the last straw, with the Leicester title win pouring fuel on to the fire. I think this is where perspective is needed. We look to finish out of the top 4 for the first time in 20 years. To me, there is a lack of appreciation in some quarters that top 4 was achieved every year, particularly when our transfer budget in the wake of the stadium move was limited. Wenger overachieved many times during those years; in terms of wages, Wenger has only been below par twice in 20 years. History will judge this as a fantastic achievement, and in terms of longevity, it will be peerless. So why is it, that the moment Wenger is below par, all of those fans have deserted him?

The reason is of course that the coveted prize is the Premiership. In 13 years we have not made a really serious challenge. Yes, we finished 2nd last year and in 2004/5, but we were not close to winning it then, or in the intervening years. We know the history, we moved to the Emirates in 2006 and we were severely restricted in budget until the 2011/12 season. The purse strings were then loosened, and we started to spend. Since the recruitment of Mesut Ozil and since the 2013-2014 our net spend has been £216.4m. As an aside, incredibly, Wenger’s net spend from 1996 to 2013 was just £26.6m. How is it that Wenger was able to win two doubles, 4 FA Cups and go unbeaten with such a meagre net spend? Yet, in the period of 2013-2016, we have not mounted a serious challenge, but have won 2 FA Cups. Could it be that other clubs have distorted the market? For example, since Sheikh Mansour took over Man City in 2008, the club have a total net spend of more than £800m. We have surpassed Chelsea when it comes to net spend since 2013, but one has to take into account that they sold players for almost £300m. Manchester United’s net spend since 2013 is £377m, City’s is £408.8m. By any rational analysis, it is hard to see how we are expected to win the title based on these numbers. Statistically, there could be an argument, that we could be among one of 3 or 4 clubs, who would expect a title every 4 to 5 years, but when two clubs outspend us in the transfer by market by 2 to 1, and other clubs are able to attract players who previously would have come to us, I would not even expect to win a title in 10 years. That is not me personally mitigating our ambition, it is just a back of a cigarette packet assessment of our chances. There are 3 other clubs who outspend us by almost 2 to 1 in the transfer market. There is one other who are on par with us in terms of ambition – Liverpool, despite spending £800m on players in 25 years, have no premiership title and have suffered a similar fate to us in 13 years.

 

The naysayers that scream “Wenger Out” assume that another manager will do significantly better, and we will challenge. In my view that is a laughable assessment, unless there are serious incursions in the transfer market. What those fans are saying in fact, is they want a manager to significantly overachieve. Recent appointments of Klopp, Mourinho and Guardiola are showing that even with huge transfer spending (the latter 2), their clubs are not overachieving. Yes, Conte is a recent appointment and Chelsea are winning the league; but in my view a donkey could stand in the changing room and they would still be winning the league. The argument that a management change precedes a title win is disproved heavily by Liverpool.

The focus among other fans is to criticise the board and accuse them of profit making. They may have a point, but I don’t have the numbers to hand. Is the argument that the board are pocketing money that that we should be using for transfers ? Our cash reserves in 2016 were £226.5m. So if we spend that money that would leave us matching half the net spend of City since 2008.

I personally hope that Wenger will sign a 2 year extension. I have faith that he is the person best placed to fix some of the problems mentioned above, and that there are reasons for optimism. We have a core of some very good young players that I still believe in, and we don’t have to sell them, and we know that the current bad run cannot last forever.

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The Sanchez Catastophe: Oh Dear, Oh Dear, Ozil

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Surely no smiling matter, Alexis?

The false dawn of the West Ham result has proven to be a particularly bitter pill to swallow.

That game was a convincingly dominant, effective and exciting performance and one we all believed would surely herald the start of our traditional end of season run-in that would see us stake a place in the top four, at the very least.

What we got at Palace was something very different on a night when our supposedly star players were anything but regal. And almost immediately after the game the ‘war chest’ stories being floated had seen their headline sums inflate from a more modest £100 million to a snappy £200 million overnight. Walcott let the cat out of the bag, post-match, by confirming what we all feared – that our opponents somehow, surely inexplicably, ‘wanted it more’.

It was the single most damning and telling thing to come out of a dressing since Robin van Persie’s ‘updates for the fans’.

Quite what is the nature of the relationship between Theo’s cat and Alexis’s dogs remains undisclosed but we can probably assume it’s messy.

I’ve done the maths and whilst there is always a danger of getting to five when adding 2+2, I’m pretty sure that the handy extra £100m that has suddenly been added to our transfer budget by the forces of rumour, speculation and leaks from inside the club, will come from the £50 million Arsenal will expect to get for each of Sanchez and Ozil.

It was evident from the extraordinary performance of both players that neither were exactly ‘playing for a contract’ but instead playing very much for ‘a transfer’.

For me Sanchez has always looked like a square peg trying to fill a round Wengerball-shaped hole. Actually, he’s just looked like a square peg. Admittedly a supremely gifted and a dynamically attacking one. But not one that ever seriously countenanced fitting in with the team, assuming he ever actually understood that that was precisely what was expected of him.

We have seen, periodically, over many years, what happens to Wenger’s sides when the machine doesn’t fire on all six cylinders. It very quickly breaks down and invariably takes time to fix. As a rule, it’s been the influx of new players following a transfer window that has led to a temporary dislocation of the side and often with hilarious results with pundits falling over themselves in the queue to write off Arsenal prior to the bedding-in process of the newbies seeing a return to the stunning free-flowing stuff we all know and love.

Sadly, this season it’s all gone Pete Tong with the reverse of the above taking place with alarming results. The team this year is, uniquely, looking vulnerable and struggling for form and consistency at the end of the season, with our best matches all far behind us.

The signs with Sanchez have been evident for some time. His very public castigation of fellow pros on the pitch. The tantrums. His apparent ‘undropability’. His evident, barely concealed and juvenile jocularity during the Bayern Munich debacle that saw him giggling on the bench at the team’s ‘misfortunes’. To the acute discomfort of his nearest neighbour On said bench.

Not the actions of someone who cares a jot about the club and I can’t wait for him to clean out his kennels, roll up his poxy poster and take up a solitary berth on some other tramp steamer. Preferably a slow boat to China.

Ozil on the other hand is the greater tragedy, for me. I think he did (and possibly still does) care about the club and his team mates and Le Boss. He looks to have witnessed Sanchez’ antics and is heartily sick of the whole thing. Sick of the permanently squandered possession. Sick of the failure to play in better positioned team-mates. Sick of the selective industry brought to bear on his day’s work. That Sanchez is above and beyond the audible abuse of the fans – indeed the ignorant veneration of this ultimate non-team player is, instead, one of the last straws.

Ozil remains to this day, in the eyes of many, falsely accused of being the lazy one alongside the heroic Alexis who at least ‘always tries’.

If Arsene could level a criticism of himself it would surely be, for whatever reason, his failure to being Sanchez to heel. When he needed a lead put on him, Sanchez was allowed to run free, playing in every match, playing just however he felt like playing.

One suspects Ozil is a modest but proud man. If ever there was an actual final straw for him, our abject capitulation to his fellow countrymen on two successive occasions was it; the white flag of surrender to Munich was one that should never have been packed let alone waved on his watch.

I don’t for one second believe Wenger is ‘past it’ although I think he will always regret his handling of Sanchez, one way or another.

But Arsene is presently in a deep hole and whilst the truth will inevitably come out, for now he appears to have taken a huge hit.

There is no togetherness amongst the players and no talk of mental strength from the manager. The season can’t end soon enough. But the degree to which a heavily splintered, dysfunctional and misfiring squad will continue to free-fall was hard to gauge from the Palace match which, like countless others this season, saw multiple game-changing aberrations from the referee, universally to Arsenal’s disadvantage.

But it may already be too late, even if Middlesbrough were to represent another dawn of sorts. The points chasm now looks like needing a bridge too far.

The loss of Sanchez, whilst regrettable, is hardly the catastrophe that awaits.

The loss of Sanchez, Ozil and Wenger will be.

Finishing outside top four will most likely see our genius Frenchman say farewell.

Attempting to replace our star players from a non-Champions League berth will prove more than a little tricky.

Replacing Arsene will be impossible.

79 Comments

A Death At The Palace.

I was charged with doing the post match review as unfortunately ,for us all, our forever chirpy Andy Nic. is hibernating in the Hebrides.

I was minded to give it a swerve, hide under a rock and hope no one noticed. As my old Mum says “if you have nothing good to say-say nothing”. Had I written last night ,I suspect I would have had to ban myself.

Anyway, I’m sure by now you have all seen the match and don’t need me to explain what you saw. I found it painful, depressing and disappointing. Normally I can see a reason or at least come up with a feasible excuse for a poor performance. But not last night, it was a shocking display.

However, football is football and these things happen. Just the other night I tuned into watch Barca v Malaga only to see the mighty Barca churn up a load of old tosh in what was for them a must win game against a struggling opponent. The problem is that for Barca its a surprise, whereas for us its becoming somewhat of a norm.

People are collectively shitting their knickers on twitter, blogs and podcasts. Its a feeding frenzy and no one is safe. Arsene, the board, the players and any fan that has of yet failed to soil their Arsenal underpants, is being torn to shreds by the passionate hoard that claim to only have the best interests of the club at heart.

Each and everyone of us has a simple choice, do we help the team through this awful period, or do we hinder them and add fuel to the fire?

Arsene Wenger was, is and always will be a great coach, We have some great players and a whole lot of very good players, but something has gone badly wrong. If I knew what or why I would happily share my wisdom with you. The question is what can we do about it?

Well the answer is really simple. keep supporting and hope that the people who do know the whats and whys can find a solution. There is no option. When you choose to fully commit to a football club, the pain is part of the deal.

We can accept that all is not well without wanting to burn the whole lot down to the ground. I simply refuse to throw Arsene and the players under a bus because I can’t control my emotions.

A supporter in times of need is a supporter indeed.  No retreat, no surrender.

 

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Arsenal Versus Palace: Pass The Soap Please Jeeves

No Question

I’m in a dilemma this morning. Not the classic Marmite or marmalade dilemma – that was resolved many years ago when I realised that one can simply have both. Not at the same time you understand, I’m not an animal. News from across the pond has reached me of an American ritual of spreading both peanut butter and jam (or jelly as they prefer to call it) upon the same sheet of white sliced but I think we ought to draw a veil over such heathen practises and focus on the football.

It is in fact a football related dilemma to which I refer in my opening salvo this morning. As I lay in my bath, prodding my rubber duck with an idle toe and waiting for my butler to deliver the cup that cheers, I cogitated upon the relative merits of the various teams in the Premier League and how we like to grade or distinguish them from one another.

It is popular to regard the likes of West Bromwich Albion, Hull City or today’s opponents Crystal Palace, to pluck three entirely random examples from the ether, as lesser sides. We use terminology such as weaker and lower, even beatable, sometimes eminently beatable.

While it is unquestionably true that the league table is an infallible barometer for separating sides into the upper tier and the also rans, I wondered as I toyed with my little plastic waterfowl, at the way we segregate teams and whether such distinctions have any real merit. You see, even though, in the beloved if hackneyed phrase, the table never lies, it is really only a transitory measure. Compare Chelsea and Leicester from last season to this. Even in the former’s season horribilis and the latter’s miracle year you wouldn’t have described Chelsea as a lower, or lesser team and Leicester as one of the top crop. Why? Prejudice maybe, snobbery, an habitual approach to different sides?

I would argue that Crystal Palace’s result against the league leaders, and West Brom’s against our own brave boys are not cases of lesser teams winning where they ought to be beaten. We need not to think of other sides in terms of greatness or lack of it but in terms of consistency. All the clubs in the top flight owe their place to merit or to wealth. On any given day any side can triumph over any other. It is consistency that separates the teams not ability.

Think like this and you lose that sense of amazed distraction when Southampton put four past us or Swansea beat us at home. Because a side is less consistent than us doesn’t give us an automatic right to assume we’ll meet them on one of their off days. The chance may be greater but that is all.

So today we face one of the less consistent sides in the league. Given their undoubted ability to beat a top team, just ask Antonio Conte if you don’t believe me, we ought to be cautious in making any wild predictions of a comfortable victory. Please don’t misunderstand me; I am optimistic, positive and confident in my outlook. This stems not from a false perception of the inability of our opponents but rather from the consistency of our greatest ever manager in defying the odds, shaming the nay sayers, and achieving a top four finish year after year after year.

This may be as difficult a season in which to repeat this feat as any he has encountered. It was always going to be so given the strength, wealth and number of teams vying for those hallowed finishing positions. At least two clubs with genuine ambitions for a European place will miss out, and we are far from the driving seat. There are currently five teams more consistent than us and we will have to build on the draw with City, and the hard won points against West Ham to overhaul any of them.

Come eight o’clock this evening Selhurst Park will be a seething cauldron of passionate partisan support and we will need cool, calm heads to quieten the home crowd and take the wind out of the home team. Arsène Wenger has assembled a group of players with the resolve to resist and the guile to overcome but they have no right to victory no matter how inconsistent their opposition may be.

I believe that for all the trophies, the unbeaten season, the famous teams he has built  and individuals he has discovered or nurtured, Arsène’s greatest achievement has been the consistency he has managed to achieve. I know there are no medals for it, no cup to place in a glass fronted cabinet, but it is, I think, the hardest thing of all to accomplish and therefore the one for which he ought to receive most praise.

I have to get out and paint my trellis so I’ll leave you with this brief missive and wish you a safe journey if you’re lucky enough to be at the match tonight. For everyone else I’ll see you here at eight.

75 Comments

Arsenal: The Green Shoots of April

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Good Morning Positivistas,

What a gorgeous Spring morning. Little lambs gambolling happily and noisily in the field, scurrying packs of ducklings on the river bank. Hullo clouds, Hullo sky.

As you can probably tell it is my last day before the annual retreat to the Hebrides – and my mood is rather good.

And to send me northward we were treated to a sumptuous footballing display last night against the ‘Ammers. 3-0 may have been the official score but if it had been 5-6-7-0 then the visitors could have had no serious complaint. As Shankly quipped “they were lucky to get nil”. The unusual thing about our three goals was they all went in the same spot, low to Randolph’s right.

We saw on Sunday confidence seeping back into our players against Citeh. No sudden upswing, just a little more assured, less hesitant. The recent domestic and European misfortunes had clearly dented their belief in themselves. Last night that improvement moved on a further pace. Ozil had his best game, in terms of influence and involvement for three months. It was Mesut’s snap shot that undid what had been, up to then a good night for Randolph.

The recent boo boys target Sanchez had a very good evening, working like clockwork with the German maestro and chipping in two of the sweetest balls to Danny and Hector that I have seen this season. We saw Granit last night also hitting some sweet passes, again the Swiss played (to my eye) like man with a weight lifted from his shoulders. Much praise has been aimed at the Elneny and Xhaka combination last night. A little early to say yet but two tall, long legged central midfield players ( neither of whom is the new Vieira), both comfortable on the ball, certainly did for the ‘Ammers.

Going forward therefore we were totally dominant then but spare a thought for the lads at the back. Andy Carroll has a reputation for success against Arsenal, with his biff-bash-bang style unsettling even the smooth Koscielny in seasons gone past. With Kosc out and our third string keeper in last night Oor Andy must have fancied his chances. But no – not at all. Last night the pony tailed one received just as much stick as he handed out, courtesy of Gabriel. It seemed to me every time Carroll was in the air or challenging for the ball that Gabriel was all over him. At one point in fact he was through the back of him. It is good to know that an opposition striker went home with a few bruises for once. Martinez had one serious save to make all night. Says it all.

For the team from the London Stadium, soon to be the Vodafone Stadium apparently, a fifth defeat on the trot. Bilic tight lipped, relegation looms. What a shambles that enterprise is turning into.

Poor night for Martin Atkinson. Evidently he had set out not to award a penalty no matter what and resolutely stuck to his guns. Let the cameras roll.

For those of you who cannot stomach the MSM I can save you the bother and we are now “officially” back in the hunt for a Champions League place, as though we were ever out of it ? Liverpool and Citeh obliged us last night. With games in hand and the confidence flowing I rather fancy the game at Selhurst Park to be a opportunity for reeling them in some more rather than an obstacle.

Enjoy your Thursday.

87 Comments

Arsenal Versus West Ham: The Best Of Times, The Worst Of Times

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Honestly, you wait weeks for a football match and then two show up at once. We’ve barely finished digesting Adrian Clarke’s Breakdown of the draw with Man City and already we need to contemplate the visit of West Ham.

A London derby, but perhaps not the most spicy of them, West Ham has nonetheless provided us with many an entertaining ninety minutes. None of us will want to reminisce for long upon last season’s Emirates encounter, and those of us who have reached a bumbling maturity may struggle to go back that far in any case. Thanks to the vagaries of the fixture list it’s been nearly two years since West Ham came to see us in the Premier League, came and behaved in a thoroughly disagreeable fashion I might add.

As Andy hinted in his most recent match review, much has changed since then. Our line up featured Debuchy, Mertesacker and Cazorla and we had no reason to suppose those three might not still be first choices come this season. It is, however, the visitors whose fortunes have been most altered since their unlikely opening day heroics.

Slaven Bilić had just replaced Fat Sam Allardyce the soon to be disgraced England football manager and it was their last season at the Boleyn Ground.They achieved their highest top flight points total, made the sixth round of the FA Cup, and even had a little dalliance with the Europa League. Their time there lasted until the Third Qualifying Round which might be a major achievement and it might not – this is after all not a competition we Arsenal fans know anything much about. Although it might be time to start brushing up on it if we fail to beat the Hammers this evening.

Well, suffice it to say the fairy tale did not last for Slaven and his boys. In common with many sides the move to a new stadium proved a dislocation, an unsettling settling in period for both players and fans alike. It’s something for which Arsène Wenger is seldom given sufficient credit. The move from Highbury, regardless of all the financial constraints it imposed, ought to have seen the side struggle, at least in the first season, as team and supporters felt themselves adrift in their new and still alien ‘home’. That Arsenal maintained their top four finish – the Mecca of all Premier League teams whatever the ‘fourth is not a trophy’ brigade tell you – speaks volumes for the man at the helm.

This season West Ham continued their brave tradition of reaching some obscurely named round of the Europa League before succumbing to the mighty Astra Giurgiu. They also pulled off memorable victories against Accrington Stanley and Chelsea reserves in the League Cup but otherwise it’s been a season to forget.

We, you may recall, put five past them back in the heady optimistic days of December and they have gone on to ship a total of fifty four goals since the season started. A sorry state of affairs which sees them sitting in the relegation zone and desperate for any succour they can get.

I am always wary of matches at the fag end of the season. The league and form tables can be easily confounded as sides in dire trouble with the trapdoor trembling beneath them can fight with a furious abandon born of reckless necessity. However, with no wins in their last six you have to think West Ham are leaving it mighty late in the day to begin the old backs to the wall routine.

We steadied our ship on Sunday, at last getting reward for a dogged never say die attitude which I believe the players have often showed this season. Hopefully the draw and manner in which it was achieved will get their heads in the right place for the battles to come, a resounding victory tonight would go a long way too.

So an intriguing prospect tonight. One side with a faint possibility of a top four finish, the other with a looming probability of one in the bottom three. Which incentive will be the greatest? It ought to come down to a comparative measurement of the side’s relative strengths but I don’t believe you can slide a rule over team sports with any degree of accuracy. Too much human frailty involved, too much at stake.

As far as the teams go it would be harsh indeed to bench Gabriel after a very creditable second half against City but I am intrigued at the thought that Per might provide the perfect foil for Andy Carroll’s long legs. However, I don’t indulge in meaningless speculation and am content to let those who know most about the players take such  decisions.

Right that’s it, the sun is shining, my hash browns are nearly done and I have better things to do than sit here thinking about Arsenal. Come seven forty five this evening I promise to give the club my fullest attention, until then I’m off out on my bike and then working in the garden. Don’t you just love this time of year?

 

68 Comments

Arsenal: Fight not Flight

 

C8byb0uXoAMB2PG 2.jpgGood morning to All Positive Arsenal fans,

This Monday normal service has been resumed.

After a few disappointments in our recent PL form we faced an important test yesterday. By ‘we’ I mean the club, the players, fans, and our manager. I’d say we came through that test well. Admittedly not with the three points we all wanted and that would have put us above the perpetually whining Portuguese but a solid point earned. To have endured a further defeat yesterday would have been destructive to morale, terminal even.

The football played by both side yesterday was not particularly flowing or of the best quality. In the first half neither side rarely managed to string three passes together. Movement into space was hesitant. Short passes were intercepted, long balls skipped out of play, tackles flew in across midfield and cards were brandished. Even Theo joined in the violence, bizarrely waved on by Andre Marriner. Playing Navas as wing back/right back was a Pep wild card that could have had fatal consequences as he launched into Nacho. Dreadful challenge. Clearly we were not the only team having an edgy afternoon.

By the second half both sides had calmed down and the football began to flow a little more smoothly. The departure of Kosc was unwelcome but Gabriel fitted in well. Gabriel is the sort of defender who would trample over his Grandma to clear a ball. The Brazilian’s more ‘direct’ style of defending may have been the better choice on the day than Kosc who did not look comfortable during the opening 45.  I suspect we may be without the Frenchman for a month or so until his Achilles problem is solved. Our defensive shape is a work still in progress, as Sane and then Aguero’s goals yesterday showed so it may do no harm for Gabriel to start and have his place assured for the next few games. Despite their early bookings Xhaka and Le Coq stuck to their defensive tasks and were strong without being reckless. The man who was out best performer yesterday scored the second equalizer and the point was won. A decent 15 minutes from Alex Iwobi again yesterday. The youngster added a bit of late but welcome craft in the visitors’ half.

From 85 minutes onward I was pacing, I admit it. I welcomed the final whistle.

Reflecting on the game this Monday morning what pleased me most yesterday was that our players showed they have it in them to recover from a setback, or two setbacks to be more accurate, and to get back into a game. In recent games when an opponent has scored it seemed to me their reaction betrayed a lack of confidence and a resignation, and that response is really is not good enough. In contrast yesterday no heads appeared to go down. There was no arm waving or finger pointing histrionics from anyone. Every man took responsibility, worked hard to get back into the game and broke through the Citeh shield twice. We played as a team, and that is a step forward. And the fans in the stadium ? From what I heard on the TV plenty of noise, plenty of good encouragement. Much appreciated.

A short break now and West Ham on Wednesday. We go into the game a little more confident and facing an opponent whose poor form is dragging them inexorably towards the relegation zone. 12 months ago Slaven Bilic was a man whose reputation very much on the up. Well he is not blowing any bubbles now.

Enjoy Monday.

84 Comments

Arsenal Versus City: The Needle And The Damage Done

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Feel like a bear this morning. Like a big fat hairy bear waking up from a pleasant, dreamless few months at the back of a cosy cave. Hope your break from all things football was equally refreshing and that you found plenty of diverting, and above all interesting ways to spend the languid, lazy, stress free days.

Well you can forget all that because it’s time to take the belt into your teeth, tighten it around your arm and push the needle in. Yep, we’re back on the smack as of four pm this afternoon. Pretending it makes us happy while we sink ever further into the misery of addiction, delusion, repetition and despair.

Of course we experience the occasional high, all junkies do, it keeps us coming back for more. The underlying hope is to rediscover the joy we experienced when we did it for the first time. Today might well be one of those days. Might not be but it won’t make any difference to you and I because we’re pathetically addicted to keep coming back for more regardless of the result, performance or fall out.

Neither of today’s teams has enjoyed a particularly consistent season, both will be hoping a convincing win over a rival will divert the criticism for a week. Who is in the better form? I suppose it’s City based on results and anything but the most partisan view of our recent performances. Taken over the last ten matches there is, in fact, barely anything between the two sides, a mere two points in fact. However when we look at the Premier League form table over the most recent six matches the picture is horribly different.

Spurs are at the top with City second and Arsenal so far down I got a crick in my neck looking for us. So if current form is a guide we will probably lose today. Of course football is a game of numbers but they are only relevant after the event. The stats can’t be used to predict anything because there are way too many variables in a game with twenty two fallible human beings and three officials any one of whom can influence the result with a moment of madness or a flash of brilliance.

Those of you in your first ever season watching the game and supporting Arsenal may find the team’s current plight too much to bear. The rest of us, having been around the block a few times, have seen more ups and downs than a bi-polar lift attendant and can breezily take a few defeats in our stride. We know that a seemingly devastated side, shorn of confidence and steering wildly towards a rocky shore, can suddenly right itself and win in a most unexpectedly comfortable fashion.

Look at Liverpool. In January they couldn’t win a game and everyone was making jokes at Herr Klopp’s expense. Now, a few weeks later, they are world beaters, set to cement their top four place and take Europe by storm next season. It’s this fickle, feckless fly by night attitude, so prevalent among football fans, which puts me off the whole thing.

The sport can be a complex blend of tactics, egos, form and confidence. It can bewilder and confuse, thrill and frustrate in equal or unequal measures. However this is only for the manager and players. When, like us, all you have to do is watch the game, it is actually very simple.

You only really have two things to do – celebrate if your team wins, get over it if they lose. Oh, and you could try to enjoy as much of the stuff that takes place on the pitch before either result comes about. Everything else, the arguments, the opinions, the discussions, is just froth. Ephemeral, chimerical codswallop which, if you let it, will strangle any joy you might once have taken from watching a match.

Before you point it out to me, can I say I do get the irony of using the platform of a football blog to rail against the peripheral flim-flam gushing from opinionated amateur windbags like me. I get it and I still do it. Like I said, tighten the belt until the vein bulges and sink the needle in. I don’t have a problem. Honest. I can quit football any time I like.

76 Comments

Arsenal Will Revert To The Mean

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Over a week has passed since the West Brom defeat and the lamestream media cannot conceal their continued delight. After 12 years of lurid predictions of Arsenal’s demise, knowing full well the impact of paying for a new stadium, they are going ape-shit on the probability Arsenal may miss out on a Champion’s League place.

This week Graeme Souness was given top billing in almost all the English rags.

“Arsenal usually falter in February or March, then reach the top four with a late run in April and May, but I don’t see it happening,”

The Daily Mail on March 21st predicted Arsenal will finish 5th behind Chelsea, City, Tottenham and Liverpool (in that order).

ESPN has been in full click-bait mode since the loss to Bayern Munich as exemplified by a recent headline:

“Nightmare for Arsenal as Tottenham could cancel St. Totteringham’s Day”

Since West Brom the corporate media has done very little by way of serious analysis to verify Wengers’s post match observations:

“We didn’t create enough. We lost Sanchez in the second half, he was very dangerous in the first. He came out in the second half and he couldn’t move any more. In the first half he was a guy who created a lot.

“It leaves us in a unique situation that we’ve never had before. We face big problems to regroup and find resources to sort out the problem. We need some togetherness. We face some serious challenges. The City game at home is a big game for us.”

Instead we are treated to the sorry spectacle of failed ex-mangers and mentally challenged pundits advising the club to terminate the services of, by far, its most successful ever gaffer. Among them is Chris Sutton whom the BBC gave a podium to spout:

“He’s been selfish. I’m surprised Steve Bould doesn’t get hold of him and say this is the reality.

“He’s taking the club backwards. They have just accepted mediocrity.”

Positively Arsenal’s @BlackburnGeorge gave a fitting rebuttal to both Sutton and the BBC in his recent blog telling them to “Get in the bin!”

So is Wenger correct that we are in a unique position? All but the mindless pundits have to admit he has a point. Souness himself acknowledged that traditionally Arsenal has a bad run in February or March, which, by the way, usually coincides with trying to compete on three fronts (PL, ECL and FA cup) while having key players out due to injury. As usual don’t expect any acknowledgement of either fact by the corporate media. It would mean giving credit to a manager who has repeatedly proven success comes primarily from teaching players to play intelligent, progressive football, not by overspending and corrupting the Premier League via foreign oligarchs and Arab sheiks as well the clique of special agents who launder the cash.

For the benefit of PA readers, I have researched the data to identify any unique characteristics about this year’s team. To assist I relied on whoscored.com. They in recent years have provided detailed team statistics using both the offensive and defensive data to arrive at an overall rating for each PL club.  For the second time in 8 years, Arsenal this season-to-date has a sub-7 rating, exactly 6.98. In comparison the seven-year mean and median is 7.06 and 7.04 respectively.  The difference may seem insignificant but, over the past eight years, teams with a sub-seven rating are grimly fighting for 4th place in the premier league. Not to be overly pessimistic, Arsenal ended with a 6.94 rating in 2011/12 and finished 3rd in the PL. But that was an outlier.

Drilling down in the data, the club this year is generally below the seven-year mean in some key defensive and offensive stats.

Defensive

Shots pg Tackles pg Interceptions pg Fouls pg Offsides pg
16/17 10.8 18 15.7 10.3 2.5
Mean 10.7 19.9 17.98 10.7 2.1
Median 10.6 19.7 17.70 10.4 2.2

Defensively AFC is making nearly two (2) less Tackles per game and similar drop in the number of Interceptions. Quite frankly that data surprised me. So there is something to the frequently made observation that Coquelin, in particular, is making less tackles and interceptions this season compared to last. Furthermore this deficit has not been covered by the other central midfielders.  Obviously less tackles and interceptions provide more attacking opportunities for the opposition. No wonder, of all the top-6 teams, so far this season Arsenal has the second highest number of goals against (34), second only to Liverpool (36).

Offensive

Shots pg Shots OT pg Dribbles pg Fouled pg
16/17 15.1 5.1 12.3 10.1
Mean 16.2 5.9 11.3 11.4
Median 16.5 6.1 10.6 10.9

Offensively AFC is below its seven-year average in two of four categories. Shots per game is down by one. This, by the way, is part of a general trend as in 2009/10 AFC was firing 17.4 shots per game, the apogee. Most importantly, the Shots On target per game is down by 14% from the mean of 5.8 to 5.1 this season. This has not had a disparate impact as the Gunners remain the third highest goal scorers in the league behind Chelsea and Liverpool, but only just.

Months ago I did a blog using the unbiased data to show that under Wenger, both at Highbury and the Emirates, Arsenal has been the most consistent club in the league. The club’s average position over the past 20 years has been 3rd with an standard deviation of one (1).  It is highly unusual for Arsenal to swing 4 places in league ranking, i.e. from 2nd to 6th. Based on the time-tested statistical laws, such diversions from the mean are temporary and short-lived. Unlike the lamestream media who have a political interest in casting Wenger’s prudence in a bad light and to prey on the emotions of fearful Arsenal fans, those of us with some grasp on reality have no doubt Arsenal’s league position will revert to the mean. While one cannot guarantee how soon this reversion will take place it is a 95% probability. In the mean time my advice is don’t put any money on 5th.

 

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“Arsenal Have No Ambition” Really? Get in the bin !

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What is ambition?

Aspiration, intention, goal, aim, objective, purpose, intent, plan, scheme, mission, calling, vocation, desire, target, end dream, or hope?

No matter where I look I cannot find a definition that claims its spending money, or more to the point, spending someone else’s money.

Arsenal have been the most ambitious club in the modern game. When they were enjoying unprecedented success at Highbury, they planned and executed the most ambitious move in football history. The club sacrificed years of possible short term success for a future as much bigger and more competitive club.

The fact that circumstances changed does not detract from the ambition shown. The arrival of multi-billionaires that were going to fund their toys to the extent never even dreamt of previously in English football and TV money reducing the advantage Arsenal had expected from the improved gate receipts does not mean that the ambition shown by the club was  not staggering. That FFP failed and the authorities were unable to resist the influx of cash to the game was not the fault of Arsenal and again, takes nothing away from the bravery and ambition the club showed.

The team, under Arsene Wenger always shows ambition. Even when forced to buy those the critics claim are 3rd rate players and journeymen, they had the ambition to play an open and expansive entertaining brand of football. If anything Arsene is guilty of being overambitious. I feel he asks players to play in a way that only the very best players can consistently achieve. Lack of ambition would be 5 at the back , 2 defensive midfielders and hoping that a player will do something special to score . Of course every defeat brings out the experts with their “painting by numbers” ideas on tactics and formations. But is that AMBITION? Is it bollocks.

So if people think we could have spent more, bought ‘better’, more expensive players,  played the game in a different way, and/or changed managers half a dozen times like “ambitious”clubs do, fine. Think what you like. But don’t be calling it ambition. I’m not having that. It is bullshit.

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