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Arsenal: What’s done cannot be undone

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Good morning Positive Arsenal fans or annyeong-hasimnikka this May Day (as they say in Pyongyang),

I admit I woke with a sharp taste in the mouth this morning. My mood was subdued. Things to be done but unsure exactly where to start on jobs that stretch out in front of me this Bank holiday. The sky light grey, the dregs of yesterday’s defeat in the glasses strewn around the place.

Of yesterday’s game not an unexpected result against a good Tottenham side who, certainly in the Premier League if not in Europe or the FA Cup, are a level above Arsenal this season. Just as Chelsea and Citeh were beaten 2-0 we joined the disappointed band. On the day they were better than us. I see that there was no shortage of BLAME to be apportioned for the result on social media, and on here!. Cut into who you want boys, they scored two and we scored zero.

It was a genuinely ‘open’ game. NLD derbies are very rarely sterile, tactical affairs. It would never be 0-0. History demands commitment and energy and I saw no shortage from anyone on either side yesterday. To add to the tension by 4.30 earlier results had provided both sides additional incentives. For us an unexpected springboard provided by Boro and Swansea past the Manchester clubs for a top 4 finish, for Tottenham the final chance to chase Chelsea. Both sides really needed three points.

We concentrated during the first half and other than two deflected half chances I thought our five-man back line defended well. The home side was faced with 8-9 red shirts as they moved towards our box and a boot or a head invariably stabbed the ball away. Our resistance was well organised and effective. Spurs had understandably came out with a plan to blow us away with an early assault but their efforts failed. In the final fifteen/twenty minutes of the half we got into the game, began to pass accurately and quickly and began to probe the Spurs’ defence. Larry was involved in a constant physical battle with the Spurs centre backs. Sanchez was weaving and bouncing. We also created two difficult goal scoring chances. Our finishing was off target.

I had cautious expectations at half time, a point achievable certainly, and if we could add quality to our offensive efforts perhaps all three.

Within twelve minutes of Michael Oliver restarting the second period we were two down. Both goals a failure of the collective concentration that had impressed me in the first disintegrated. The first goal saw two players in white shorts outwit five players in red, plus the keeper, to put away a scruffy finish. Within a minute Gabriel faced a charging Kane in the penalty box. Not another red shirt close by. The inevitable contact with the Tottenham striker took place. Kane put away a perfect spot kick.

Savage those these setbacks were we had the best part of 35-40 minutes to react and recover. Our first half efforts gave me grounds for optimism. As I said in opening there North London Derbies have goals. We had time, we had the players ……..

During that final period of the game, during which I anticipated we would fling ourselves upon the home side, we created very little. Up to the final third our football was tidy, within the final third we showed nothing to suggest we could penetrate the defence or test Lloris. There did not seem much variation in our approach. For a team full of intelligent players it was a predictable pass – pass – pass. Our shooting was always off target or weak. We had plenty of corners but each one was comfortable dealt with. Changes were made with Danny and Hector on, and later Theo, to no obvious effect. The game petered out. We had failed. My expectations were ash.

Of our players I make no criticism of Cech, the Ox nor of Kosc. Of the others I imagine left the pitch feeling dissatisfied with their afternoon’s work.

We shall not wallowing in misery for more than one day however.

We have an absolutely vital game next Sunday, against the Prince of Darkness.

Enjoy your Monday.

140 Comments

Arsenal Versus Spurs: Credit Where It’s Due

Angry chicken

I understand that in the knockabout pantomime jeering between rival football supporters it is necessary to deride the success of one’s adversary and inflate the prowess of one’s own chosen team. I get it. It’s the reason fans of Mansfield and Crewe can, without any discernible trace of irony, both sing that they are watching ‘by far the greatest team the world has ever seen’. It is part of the charm of the game.

Unfortunately when this same instinct is filtered through the prism of social media there is a more desperate edge to the banter. The desire to somehow be proven right is almost overwhelming and, sadly, it leads to us being made to look chumps at times.

I have always championed consistency above all else in football, it’s one of the reasons I rate Arsène Wenger so highly as a manager and the principal reason I am cautious of elevating every other coach who’s club enjoys a rare visit to the top four.

Very often a league campaign will throw up an unlikely contender. A side from the middle or lower orders will perform way above themselves. I recall Villa, Newcastle, Everton and Liverpool all having stand out seasons like this and of course we all know what happened with Leicester.

The salient factor is that they almost never repeat the feat. Getting there is incredibly tough, staying there almost impossible. Even super wealthy clubs with a short or long history of success find themselves struggling on occasions and for any side to break into the elite and stay there takes some doing.

It looks likely that Tottenham will finish above Arsenal this season. I hope it won’t happen today because we need to maintain our recent run of results to build confidence in the lead up to the cup final and keep the pressure on those above us. But realistically it looks like it’ll happen at some point between now and May 21st.

If it does it will mean that Pochettino has done the hardest job. He has followed a season where his side challenged for the title and pushed Arsenal to the wire with another where once again Spurs has been the only consistent challengers to the presumptive champions and may well go one better than its closest rival.

It is a real achievement and by rubbishing it we only make ourselves look foolish. One reason it’s a real achievement is because finishing above Arsène Wenger is no easy matter. He has proven to be one of the very best managers the country has ever seen and any side finishing higher that his either wins silverware or gets into the Champion’s League. Of course journalists and others hostile to our club will exaggerate the significance of Spurs’ success, but guess what; that need not upset you because no one forces you to listen to them or read what they write.

The derby is a massive game for both clubs given their ambitions in the league. Geographical and historical rivalry make it a huge occasion for local fans, for other supporters around the world it lacks that particular, visceral intensity. It matters because it’s another top club and they are above us in the league. It’s a tough away fixture at a time when we’d rather be pouring goals into the opposition net against someone less able to wound us.

I had a good feeling about Man City which was eventually borne out, similarly Leicester, no matter how late we left it, always seemed winnable. Today I just can’t read the tea leaves. We know that Spurs have suffered under pressure recently but their experiences last season will stand them in good stead this time around. That’s where consistency comes in, it feeds experience and know-how into the mix.

However, if we praise Pochettino for his two seasons dining at the top table, and we should, then how much more highly must we value our own manager who has achieved the same or similar again and again and has done so not for two years but for two decades?

I haven’t given up on the Champion’s League place yet and I’ll bet the players haven’t either. Today is a chance to close the gap on at least one of the teams standing in our way. If it also staves off the spectre of a reverse St Tott’s then that’s no bad thing either. The atmosphere will be hostile to say the least, the opposition as excited at their chances as a monk sitting on a washing machine. It’s up to us to spoil the party.

We need to turn that expectation to nervousness, convert excitement to impatience, get under their skin and irritate them. Oh, and while we’re at it scoring more goals than them might not be a bad idea.

If you’re going to the game please stay safe. I’ve managed to pull a 10 till 5 shift today so have to decide between watching the second half live or waiting and seeing the whole thing tomorrow. It’s a tough choice, although my chances of avoiding the result are minimal as I’ll be at another football match and, well, you know how people around you like to discuss the other games taking place.

Speaking of work, I’d better get going; enjoy the game and if I don’t catch you later I’ll see you next Sunday for Man United.

182 Comments

Arsenal: Deflection and Guile

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Good morning Positive Arsenal,

A third straight win despite a number of changes in the starting line up, tiredness among the players and dogged opponents hell bent on leaving with a point. Perhaps the most striking point of the evening was Leicester’s approach. League champions last season, their trophy deserved, and dangerous opponents on their last visit to the Ems. This season an entirely negative, nine men at the back all evening, barely willing to move the ball over the half way line. Even Vardy seemed half hearted. Just one serious effort on goal (and an excellent save from Cech required). Was this mob really standing toe to toe with Athletico Madrid in the QF on the Champions League last week ? Entirely fitting that they should be undone by an own goal.

With regard to the Arsenal starting line-up it raised a few eyebrows, mine included. As I said yesterday we have a strong squad so changing players in itself was not unexpected after the hard afternoon at Wembley but Nacho as a third centre back, Gibbs as a wingback, Theo in from the cold, and no start for Danny or Larry ? I admit those selections puzzled me.

I heard someone say that maybe Arsene was using the game to assess those players whose future at the club after the Summer is in doubt. Speculative given the importance of the game to our final PL position but not entirely implausible.

Of the game itself we played “alright” in the first half. We had a lot of possession, stood up to the Foxes’ aggression, and moved the ball well to the edge of the visitors’ box. Beyond that point we seemed to seize up. Our attackers seemed reluctant to run at opponents into their penalty area with the ball. The ball was passed sideways and backwards across the final third. Corner came and went. We rarely had more than one player actually in the box to inflect any damage from open play. Sanchez dropped deeper and deeper to evade the Leicester centre backs. Theo flickered in and out to no obvious effect. It was only in the final 10 minutes of the first half that Mesut came to life. We never seemed to pull Leicester apart and we did not look like scoring.

As is our usual approach second half we stepped up our efforts after half time  but it was not until the full complement of substitutes were on after 75 minutes that Arsenal began to crack the Leicester shell. Huth and Benalouane, having enjoyed an easy night swatting Sanchez away like an annoying bluebottle all night, suddenly faced the muscle of Giroud. Sanchez and Danny concentrated on the wings, and Aaron played further forward than le Coq. When Kosc went down writhing I had a bad moment but, much to everyone’s surprise, he was back up and playing within a couple of minutes. We became urgent in our efforts. The volume in the ground went up.

The pressure built, the Leicester defending became more ragged, for the first time all evening their defenders were being drawn out of position and gaps were opening. The goal when it came was scruffy, two deflections and no chance for the keeper.

After that decisive goal a strange few minutes. The referee and Sanchez both seemed to lose their heads for no obvious reason. What had been a fairly mild contest degenerated into a fracas with Cech and Schmeichel both leaving their goals to get involved in a row. Cech, to his credit, was telling Sanchez to control himself. Fuchs was already on a card and an idiot for slinging the ball at Alexis. The Austrian should have been off. Alexis, sore lip or not, should not have flung himself down. More concerning immediately after that incident Sanchez crashed into another Leicester player (Drinkwater ? ) in front of Arsene’s technical area and went down clutching his face again, for no obvious reason. If Jones has seen what I had seen then we would have been one Chilean short on Sunday for the NLD. The man had lost it. We all like a bit of passion and fight but even so …….I shall put it down to his exhaustion after two testing games in four  days.

Very much a difficult job completed successfully. Three points nearer the opposition and the Manchester derby tonight to add a little more incentive to our chase. Fingers cross for the Ox and for Kosc this weekend and that they are both fit.

Enjoy Thursday.

 

94 Comments

Arsenal Versus Leicester: Ifs and Buts

Bike Maintenance

Today began well enough, ice on the windscreen answered to the scraper without undue recalcitrance and the breakfast was possibly one of my finest efforts. I like breakfast. In another life I’d like to be a breakfast chef I think. Then sadness as I turned the final page of the Shepherd’s Crown, a book I’d put off reading for too long. I hadn’t actually wanted to start it, my rationale being that if I didn’t open it then I would always live in a world where there was one more Terry Pratchett book still to read. Now there aren’t any.

Then I just sat here, sipping coffee and contemplating my day. A day in the shed I decided. Stripping and cleaning the parts of my bike until they shone and then carefully reassembling them, all the while hoping there wouldn’t be too many bits left over when I’d finished. Suddenly, into this blissful calm, a thought crashed like an overweight burglar through a thin conservatory roof.

Oh bloody hell there’s another game tonight.

Then a second, follow up thought, like the burglar’s bag full of crowbars and swag bounced off my brain.

They’ll be expecting a blog.

Luckily enough just the idea of a match is enough to set the pulse beating a little faster. Even though I’ve barely had time to digest the semi final, here I am slipping once more into the bath of anticipation, the suds of expectancy tickling my nose, the rubber duck of excitement bobbing with suddenly renewed vigour.

This may not be as mouth watering a prospect as mega rich Manchester City with a cup final place at stake but a match in prospect and one with much still riding upon it. Or perhaps I should qualify that with the word potentially.

There are a few ifs and buts still about the final league positions but with only half a dozen games to go the margins are becoming increasingly narrow. I think it’s fair to say we can’t afford any more unexpectedly poor performances. Not if we still have aspirations for a top four finish. Even Europa league football isn’t a given – as bizarre as that may sound to us.

There’s a reason for the confusion and anguish experienced by Arsenal fans at going into the closing overs of the season in seventh place. Quite simply the astonishing success of  Arsène Wenger in consistently delivering top four finishes for so very long has seen a generation grow up knowing nothing else. Serve people gourmet food for twenty odd years and they are bound to be confused if their supper suddenly comes from Burger King.

Any road up, it is what it is and we must make the best of it. I have really enjoyed watching Arsène’s response to the mini crisis in our league position. Ringing the tactical changes strikes me as anything but desperation, nor is it necessarily a masterful display of footballing knowledge. I think its man management, pure and simple.

The players were losing confidence, they were beginning to doubt themselves and if he’d kept on sending them out in the same formation with similar instructions things might have gotten much, much worse. Instead he shook things up, he said to them, look you’re obviously unhappy how things are so don’t worry, this is different, you’re in a new environment now. The old one wasn’t working properly and now that’s gone you can breathe again. With a few tweaks he ensured we had five at the back when ever we needed and big numbers up front when the chance arose. But the change itself is what the boys needed and haven’t they responded well?

Of course this is merely my amateur interpretation of events but like the all the best wild, unsubstantiated theories it at least appears to be born out by the facts. With Aaron and Granit getting to know one another, Gabriel in imperious form and Holding little short of a revelation I can see no reason not to be optimistic, not just for tonight but for all of our remaining fixtures.

We of course have some hugely difficult games to come and there are no guarantees but we’ve seen enough to enjoy at least a burgeoning hope that the team can end with a flourish – and who knows? Maybe even a trophy for the old cabinet.

But I am getting ahead of myself. First and foremost there is the small matter of the reigning champions who visit the Emirates this evening a mere three days after our heroics at Wembley. With the new formation still bedding in I would hope not to see too many changes but there must be tired legs in the squad – especially after playing extra time on Sunday. I have yet to see the statistics but we seemed to be doing a heck of a lot of chasing which is an exercise in resource depletion if ever there was one.

So with the dark clouds behind us and exciting new possibilities for the future springing up with every successful game it looks like we can sit back and enjoy the rest of what has been a turbulent, unpredictable season. Having done my duty to the blog I must don the rubber gloves and get to it, after all a shed is no more special than any other structure without a man fiddling, pottering, cursing and relaxing in it. I’m particularly excited today because I’m expecting delivery of my new Derailleur Alignment Gauge, a tool the very existence of which I hadn’t suspected up until a couple of days ago. Truly we live in interesting times.

69 Comments

Wrighty Is So Wrong About Arsenal

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Every year, since Stan Kroenke became owner, whenever the club is going through a difficult patch, after the finger-pointing at Arsene, Ivan and the tea-lady, the pitchforks are finally targeted at the owner. It is so repetitious it has almost become a ritual. I am convinced the practitioners have absolutely no idea why they do it, and, like all mindless behaviour, cannot conceive of its utter pointlessness.

This year’s high priest of these rites was the legendary Ian Wright.  Shortly after Arsenal laboured to defeat Middlesbrough, which featured the once retro but now fashionable three at the back system, he went straight for Stan’s jugular with the following tweet:

“Arsenal joining this list of world beating teams 😡. Great investment’s though Mr kroenke. 👌” Ian Wright (@IanWright0 ) April 16, 2017

Apparently Wrighty is one of the many Arsenal fans who are heavily into wilful self-delusion. How else can one explain their blatant forgetfulness about the history of Kroenke’s rise to becoming the majority-owner of the club.

Let me reveal a long-hidden secret to Ian and his pals.  It was because of the great 10-year run of Arsenal under Arsene Wenger, from 1996 onwards (collecting three EPL titles and four FA cups), when the value of the club had exploded, that the traditional English owners decided it was full-time to cash-out. Apparently they were not sanguine about an uncertain future paying for a brand new stadium. They were selling, Kroenke was buying. They disinvested, he saw a “great investment”.

Kroenke’s holdings in the club began with an initial 9.9% bought from ITV plc in April 2007. Sometime in 2008 he increased his stake in the club to 20.5% following a purchase of shares from fellow director Danny Fiszman. In May 2009, Arsenal announced Kroenke had bought a further 4,839 shares from the Carr family which made him the largest shareholder of the company with 28.3%. By November this increased to the maximum 29.9% limit.

Things really got interesting in 2009. Among the non-directors owning a large slice of shares was former vice chairman David Dein, who is today treated in some quarters as a legendary big-spending owner and director. Dein and others sold their shares to Red and White Holdings, co-owned by Russian billionaire Alisher Usmanov and London-based financier Farhad Moshiri, who made a rival bid to become majority owner of the club. As of September 2011 they owned 18,204 shares (29.25%) of the club.

Based on the bits and pieces that made it to the public domain, the future ownership of the club was decided by director Danny Fiszman who convinced Kroenke not to purchase more than 29.9% of the club until at least September 2009, while the rest of the board agreed not to consider a sale of their shares to “non-permitted persons” until at least April 2009, and had first option on each other’s shares until October 2012. When the lockdown ended, in April 2011, Kroenke extended his ownership of the club by purchasing the shareholdings of Nina Bracewell-Smith (15.9%), and Danny Fiszman (16.11%) and other directors of the Arsenal board, taking his shareholding to 66.64%. It is undeniable that Danny Fiszman’s (who, by the way, was the driving force in building the new stadium) deathbed decision to sell his remaining stake to Kroenke was critical to his majority ownership.

It is important to understand that majority ownership means Kroenke calls the shots in making the financial, managerial and strategic decisions that affect the club. This has meant, as minority shareholders, Red and White Holdings have no say in the key decisions as they have no representation on the board. In truth they have no greater privileges than that of a common shareholder, albeit one with a significant holding.

I wonder if Wrighty and those of similar ilk understand the importance of the choice made by Danny Fiszman, who bled red-and white up to his final breath. Rather than adopting former chairman Peter Hill-Wood’s bombastic declaration that “…we don’t need his money and we don’t want his sort…,” the late diamond trader, after scrutinizing Kroenke’s ownership of his many other sports franchises felt he would continue Arsenal’s tradition of being a ‘self-sufficient’ club.

Peter Hill-Wood and Fiszman were not naive and stupid:

“…Americans are buying up chunks of the Premiership football clubs and not because of their love of football but because they see an opportunity to make money…”

Hill-Wood concluded:

“…Stan Kroenke is involved in sport and we have had constructive meetings with him,”

“We have never been in better shape financially and do not want anybody to buy the club, but if Kroenke wanted to buy it he would understand it and how to maintain the standards.”

Apparently these standards are what drives Wrighty and company crazy. What makes them so mad? This is where the annual blame-game as a ritual makes absolutely no sense.

In the first place, unlike the Glazers at United, the American did not leverage his share ownership by using it as collateral to finance his buy-out of Arsenal. The Glazers went further, they then lashed the debt onto the books of United making the club responsible for making the principal and interest payments. Initially the total debt was around £660 million. This was the first time United had debt since 1931. The interest rates on the debt amounted to around £62 million a year. That by the way is the nearly one-third their annual payroll. Should United’s current revenue stream, reportedly over £500 million per year, begin to slow down, as in real-life, it is the wage-bill that will be cut to facilitate the interest payments.

The Glazers it seems have no limits to putting the burden of their ownership on United. In 2016 it was revealed the club must pay £15 million in dividends annually to the six Glazer siblings for the privilege of their buying out the club with borrowed money.  It was further revealed that the said same siblings had borrowed a total of £10m from the club and been paid £10m in “management and administration fees”.

Compare and contrast with “Silent” Stan. He bought Arsenal with externally generated funds placing no additional debt burden on the club. How easily Ian and his friends forget that until 2014, Arsenal was struggling with repaying the obligations incurred to finance the new stadium. The club had locked itself into long-term naming and sponsorship deals which guaranteed a steady cash flow acceptable to the lenders who loaned them the money. But it didn’t leave a lot available for making transfers and paying wages comparable to Arsenal’s big-3 rivals (United, Chelsea and City). Not only did Kroenke not do a leverage buy-out, he has taken no dividends from the club, which is his inherent right as a shareholder. In fact the only direct payments that have been made by the club to a Kroenke entity is £3 million to Kroenke Sports and Entertainment LLC,  in 2013-14 and 2014-15 (not taken since) for services rendered to the club. This is a piddling amount compared to the payments United must make to the Glazer children.

It is well known that what really aggravates Wrighty and others is the refusal by the billionaire majority owner of the club, to reach into his personal checkbook and spunk up the mega bucks necessary to help buy the best players available worldwide who could presumably guarantee the club to win every major trophy available. Wrighty’s tweet reeks with sarcasm and snark when he tweets “Arsenal joining this list of world beating teams.” Not.

Apparently these critics of Kroenke believe that making these “investments” will guarantee Arsenal league titles. Haven’t we learnt anything from the last ten years? Unlike a one-horse league enjoyed by Bayern and PSG or the Real Madrid-Barcelona duopoly in Spain, there is no evidence that spending massively on transfers and wages will guarantee first place in the Premier league. Examples abound. In the last four-years of the post Ferguson era United has spent about £400 million on transfers and have failed to make the top-4 in two of those years much less win a title. Roman Abramovich has spent about £1 billion on transfers and wages and last season finished 10th. City has spent an equivalent amount yet only has 2 titles in 10-years to show for their investment.

On a longer time horizon, relying on a sugar-daddy owner is economically and commercially unsustainable. Look no further than the recent example of A. C. Milan. For over 30 years they had the ultimate beneficent owner in Silvia Berlusconi. Under him they became one of Europe’s pre-eminent clubs, winning eight league titles, one Italian Cup, seven Super Cups as well as five Champions League trophies and five UEFA Super Cups. But due to Milan’s growing debt and Berlusconi’s falling financial fortunes, the club were forced to sell some of its best players year after year without significant reinvestment, leaving them floundering. In a span of just two years, Milan lost world class players like Andrea Pirlo, Clarence Seedorf, Alessandro Nesta, Pippo Inzaghi, Gennaro Gattuso, Mark Van Bommel and Gianluca Zambrotta, who were then followed by Zlatan Ibrahimovic and Thiago Silva.

Due to their cascading financial failure, both AC and Inter have fallen into the hands of Chinese owners. Nothing is wrong with the Chinese per se. Like any businessman they are in it to make money. But to the chagrin of some Italians, they are running both clubs as extensions of their businesses on the mainland. They recently forced both clubs to play their derby game at 12:00 noon on a Saturday, a tv-friendly time for their Chinese audience. To add insult to injury, in the case of AC there is little chance the new owners can afford to spend big on new players required to return them to former glory. They incurred significant “debt” (remember that word Wrighty) to finance its £628m takeover and their lenders reportedly have little appetite to extend new money to buy expensive players who also come with very large wages.

Meanwhile, the Rossoneri  have now gone three years without European football, their longest abstinence from the continental stage in the past three decades — currently lead Inter by two points but are still two points behind fifth-placed Atalanta and an assured place in the Europa League.

Remember Milan was the biggest club in the world during  Wrighty’s era as a footballer. One wonders if their experience will give pause to him and others who are so quick to blame Stan Kroenke for leaving Arsenal to do what it needs to do; generate its own resources and pay its own way.

Sadly, I think not. Most football fans have the memory of a goldfish. They have been seduced by the corrupt mainstream media into believing the false narrative that success can be bought and not achieved by hard work over time. They want titles and they want it now. Like Wighty and his twitter followers, the experience of AC Milan is quickly cast down a memory hole and big spenders like United, Chelsea and City held up as the gold standard.

Who thinks I am being too pessimistic?

69 Comments

Arsenal: Share Your Courage With Others

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Good evening Positive people.

What an afternoon!! It is games like this that remind me why I find it so easy to love football. An excellent contest between two attacking teams, decided by the narrowest of margins. We matched and bettered City in every department, including being “professional” in our conduct, and misconduct, on the pitch. I am delighted that we have earned a place in the FA Cup Final. Fair to say that in the first 45, our sky blue opponents held the initiative. After half time however the force was with us. They were rattled, they cracked. Nevertheless I genuinely extend my sympathy to City and their entourage who missed out after 120 minutes of impressive struggle.

I hardly need to mention to anyone reading this piece that the victory was not easy. Good grief no, and the tension was notching up since our win at the Riverside.

I asked (pleaded is more accurate) earlier today that Arsenal did no more than play to their “ full potential” in the semi-final.  That our players would strain every sinew and shed their last drop of sweat at Wembley between 3 and 5-ish would have been enough for me.  The result could take care of itself, win or lose, for today the draw was never the option. I enter these transactional arrangements with the cosmos when I am in footballing doubt, in the same way I often become religious at 3 a.m.

And in the past six days there has been ‘doubt’ in my Arsenal soul, there is no use my denying it.

I admit I have made this contract with FOOTBALLING FATE before, and in recent seasons I have felt that the goddess has treated me cruelly, dealing me neither satisfaction in the team’s unstinting effort, nor the advantage of an occasional lucky result. It is a large pitch, and the biggest stage. And Wembley is no place to be humiliated, for Arsenal Football Club, its players or managers or fans. If I was feeling hesitant in the run-up to the match I found no solace in the dismissal of Arsenal’s chances to beat City by pundit after pundit after pundit.  I know the vast majority of the Mersons, the Ferdinands and the Jenases are idiots, but could it be that every single one of them was wrong?

Well the pundits were, to a man, wrong.  My doubt was wholly misplaced.

On this day I saw our players put in a performance over 120 minutes that is among the finest I have seen over 50 years.  I saw a highly organised defensive performance in which Holding and Kosc never put a foot wrong.  As for Gabriel we saw not just what a ruthless practitioner of ball winning he is, but he is a reader of the game. Never out of position, never needed to dive in. Rarely has such subtlety been wrapped around cold-blooded intervention. Poor Silva.

As for our Man of the Match, the Ox, the 23 year old performed as the most assured man on the pitch. He was tasked with helping Gabby subdue City’s most pointed weapon Sane and he did a solid job. Sane is no mug so to keep him off the score sheet and deny him any clear shooting opportunities all afternoon is as good as it gets.  Going forward however Alex really did his best work in my opinion. He runs fast, straight and with the ball at his feet. Very few players do that any more. His transformation since that dreadful night in Munich in mid-February is remarkable.

And who told Nacho he could score goals like that with his right foot – or his left foot even? Our Chilean grabbed the decider.  Nothing spectacular about the finish by Sanchez’s standards.  The right man, on the right spot, at exactly the right moment.

Of our other lads, Aaron, Granit, Larry, Mesut, Danny, and Cech, I am sure you will have better words to cover their contributions.  As I say they all played to their full potential today.

I am about to slope off for some refreshment.

I deserve it.

Enjoy the evening.

77 Comments

Arsenal Versus City: Cloudbusting

Sunset Over The Batch
A season which I have been reliably informed is a disaster, best forgotten, a total shambles, and a sad the end to Arsène’s reign has somehow contrived to find Arsenal in an FA Cup semi final. I had to check the fixture list twice to see if I was dreaming, but it appears that while I’m working my way through a twenty five hour shift for wages which would insult a paper boy, the rest of you will be settling down to watch Arsène and Pep and their proxies on the pitch duking it out in the world’s most famous cup competition.

Funny old game innit?

Spurs, as I discovered when I got home from work just in time to see the final kick of yesterday’s game, failed to make the final by what appeared at least to be a convincing margin. It’s a gut wrenching experience to lose in a semi final as only the older Arsenal fans will know. No one remembers the also rans, only the finalists. You almost wish you’d bowed out quietly in the sixth round rather than face the drooping despair of a lacklustre semi.

I’ve never enjoyed these penultimate occasions. In my memory they seldom produce the best games nor the most convincing of performances. I’m also of the generation which grumbles about any qualifying round of any tournament being played at Wembley. Keep the final sacred I say. I don’t say it very loudly nor very often because it’s silly and pointless to moan about such things. Only the very old and enfeebled like me and possibly George can even remember semi finals at neutral grounds, never mind care enough to mention it in a blog.

It’s always difficult to predict the outcome of a football match and only a fool would attempt it. This year, predicting the likely performance of this Arsenal side is all but impossible. In a patchy end of season run of matches the most recent game against City was actually one of our better displays. Granted the wheels fell off again only eight days later but we’ve seen enough to know that on their day this group of players can go toe to toe with the huge mega rich clubs and emerge with their reputations intact.

We didn’t ought to be able to compete with City, United and Chelsea but time and again we prove we can. It would be rather nice if today was one of those days. It would put a smile on a few faces, both of people who’s emotional well being I value as well as many who’s entire existent is a matter of absolute indifference to me.

This is the big problem with being part of the elite echelon of the ultra positive Imperial Praetorian Guard of Arsène loving Arsenal fans. Any success has to be shared with all Arsenal fans everywhere – even the ones who hold up bits of paper with negative career advice for the manager. Doesn’t seem fair when the reward for staying resolute and loyal throughout the one disappointing league campaign in Arsène’s entire tenure is precisely the same as that enjoyed by the most spiteful and disloyal of supporters.

This ought to make me realise how little difference all this makes and hang up my hat. It really ought to. We had just as well get into verbal spats with people who disagree as to which cloud will pass overhead in the most pleasing shape. Guess what? The clouds will pass in any shape they please and in any order no matter what fights are taking place on the ground beneath them.

Anyway, for many people today will be a lovely day out at the spiritual home of English football (in name at least) and a rousing occasion at the fag end of a confusing and at times frustrating season. Both sides are chock full of talent and have famous footballing men at the helm. It ought to be a fine feast of footy and I hope it’s one everyone enjoys. I just want the Arsenal fans to enjoy it a little more, that’s all. If you’re going I’m sure you’ll have fun and if any of you see me cycling back from work tomorrow morning there is an outside chance I won’t have heard the score so please don’t spoil it for me will you?

79 Comments

Wenger Will be The Manager Indefinitely – As Predicted By The Data

This is my 50th or so blog for Positively Arsenal. Less than 2 years ago I accepted the challenge by the Boss to contribute something to this community and  decided, since I was not as erudite as Steww and Andy Nic, to concentrate on providing  analysis of long-term data trends affecting the club rather than pre-game or post game developments. The unbiased data has been a revelation; one of which is the importance of Arsene Wenger to Arsenal Football Club. On Friday John Cross of The Mirror, whom one must admit is well connected to the club, did a piece  headlined Arsenal boss Arsene Wenger is making plans for the next TEN years at the Emirates and his readers were in an uproar. Hopefully nobody who reads and is educated by the various bloggers at PA is surprised by this development. On October 4, 2016 I published the data demonstrating Arsene will be the manager indefinitely. Despite all the sound and fury in the mainstream media, blogs, podcasts and on twitter, sensationalizing Arsene’s future, we at PA would have remained calm and serene, trusting the data. Here is what I wrote.

Unlike my more erudite colleagues at PA, my role is to inform and explain the sometimes boring but always unbiased data that serve as predictors of the competitive future of our club.

Due to the longevity of our great manager, we have 20 years of data covering 760 Premier League games that allow us to identify certain long term trends which are repetitive and predictable. Unlike the mainstream media and most of our colleagues who blog, podcast or tweet we do not have to resort to cheap sensationalism to make our point. A review of two very important developments will illustrate my point.

Wenger20

The celebration of Wenger’s 20 years as manager of the club was marked by a massive orgy of hyperbole and bogus platitudes by the mainstream media that must have left the manager bemused. After all, less than six months ago the self-same media, led by serial phone-hacker Piers Morgan, were eagerly fanning the flames of discontent and provoking demonstrations by fans to drive Wenger Out.

I therefore feel great empathy for our own Pedantic George when he vented in the Comments section of the blog last Saturday:

“Seeing a shower of absolute bastards, currying favour on the back of Arsene’s 20th anniversary, is turning my stomach.”

Unfortunately there is nothing that either George, I, or you the reader can do that will change the behavior of these “bastards”. It is totally consistent with my “greed and despair” paradigm to which I frequently refer. (More details here.) They are simply “sensationalizing,” preying on emotions. Notice that every member of the commercial media in England and on this side of the pond (i.e. NBC which has the Premier league broadcast rights) is doing a special on Wenger proclaiming how great he is. It makes commercial sense. Arsenal fans in particular are drawn to it in droves and those eyeballs online mean money especially for those newspapers who are bleeding readership, because the public has increasingly lost faith in them thanks to their mendacity and bias.

Yet six weeks ago, in mid-August, I did a blog showing that in the collective wisdom of nearly 40 pundits from both ESPN and BBC, Arsenal under Arsene was predicted to come 3rd in the league, in direct contradiction to the historical data. It defies reason that most journalists, pundits or bloggers within weeks, sometimes days, of declaring Wenger no longer fit for purpose, write such voluminous paeans and odes of praise to his greatness.

Unlike the mainstream media and the majority of vacillating, wavering Arsenal bloggers, we have cold hard data to justify our firmly held conviction that Arsene is not only the greatest manager this club has ever had but he is set to continue indefinitely. A contract is already in his hands and I am sure the board will be anxious as kittens until he signs. Like the bankers who demanded he agree to remain as manager for five years after moving into the new stadium, we rely on past performance, not sentiment.

“Consistency, thou art a jewel” – Shakespeare

png-avg-points

What is undeniable, from the graphic above, is that under 20 years of Arsene’s management the club has recorded the joint second highest average points per season (74) among all clubs, despite being massively outspent by United, Chelsea and City and at times, Liverpool. Despite the over one billion pounds invested in Chelsea by Abramovich in the past 12 years, the gap between them and Arsenal is negligible. (Note the graphic is generous to City whose average is calculated over 16 years by excluding the four seasons they were in the 2nd and 3rd flight of English football.) Also observable is the considerable gulf between between the Gunners and its North London rivals, in the order of 20 points.  Of all his rivals Arsene is yet to overhaul or match Manchester United, a realistic prospect in the first ten years until the club decided to focus its resources on building a new and bigger stadium.This is a handy segue to doing what is now standard in my analyses which is measure Wenger’s consistency in the pre-Emirates versus the Post-Emirate years.

Pre-Emirates

png-avg-points-pre

The graphic and figures are crystal clear. Even though Wenger did not have the capacity to make record transfers in the magnitude of Ferguson at United, he had sufficient resources and the managerial nous to be on average only three (3) points inferior to the biggest and most successful club in England (80 vs 77 points). Despite inferior finances Arsene/Arsenal was able to capture three EPL titles including the singular honor of an Invincible, two doubles including the Invincible year and four FA cups.  In contrast, Manchester City, without the financial resources of the Abu Dhabi group, had in the same ten-year span spent four years outside of the top flight generating a piddling season average of 23 points, less than one-third of Arsenal’s.

Post Emirates

post-avg-points

With the austerity brought on by the stadium move, as well as  Chelsea and City becoming the unprecedented beneficiaries of deep-pocketed sugar-daddies, Wenger was simply unable to compete in the transfer market. Nonetheless Arsenal remained consistently among the top-three clubs in points earned with the season average dropping by six (6) to 71 points. It is notable that despite the hundreds of millions spent by Chelsea, their season average is no better than Wenger’s 77 points during his first ten years. Similarly, a big spender like City, with ten years to get a run at a financially crippled Wenger, is still three (3) points behind in current season average. Liverpool, despite the constant churn of managers, players and owners remain in-situ. That is not a comforting statistic if the scousers ever hope to catch and surpass Arsenal.

Now that Arsene/Arsenal is able to consistently spend on top-top quality players as well as patiently develop those coming through the academy, only the rabid anti-Wenger WOBs and weak-willed fans who allow themselves to become victims of groundless doom-mongering by the media, would bet against Wenger at least regaining the ground lost over the past ten-years.  If he is as competitive as his brother Guy disclosed in that recent newspaper interview, Arsene will be dying to prove he has the same, if not more longevity, than his older sibling who retired at 70. How many of you, dear reader, are willing to put up a wager?

Will the haters put up or shut up?

123 Comments

Arsenal: Formation and togetherness

Middlesbrough-Arsenal-010 2.jpg

And a good Tuesday morning to the Positive Arsenal fans,

Interesting game last night. A change of “formation” but not really much difference in the set up the side as we had the ball or when we defended as far as I could see. Defenders defended, midfield players did their box to box running, tackling and passing thing, wingers ‘winged’, mostly. Not quite sure about the striker but I will come back to that.

I thought, as I see many others did, the Ox was our stand-out player on Teesside. A genuinely dynamic influence in quickly pushing forward, ball at his feet and taking the Boro full back on, even getting his crosses in from the bye line (!). When young Alex was called on to defend while he was not elegant he was always where he should be, with his head, foot or other body part thwarting the home side’s efforts. I am sure we all shed a tear when Ox’s entirely accidental damaging of Fabio in the 17th minute saw the Brazilian limp off. So unlucky, yet so unusual it is one of theirs rather than one of ours. AOC is just 23 years old but the post match speech he delivered was the footballing equivalent of the Gettysburg Address compared to the vast majority of claptrap spouted by footballers. This young man has a future far beyond the green square.

 

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=RtCRIbWT7bU

Other good performances from Mesut, from Granit and from the current boo boys target Alexis.

Remarkable that some sad anorak wearing tosser spends their time counting the number of misplaced or intercepted passes that our players manage, then posts it on the internet for the mob to beat the worst “culprit” with. Hang, him. Sell him. He’s shit. Blah blah blah. I remember when the PA ethos was to support every player, through thick and thin. Aye happy days they were.

Rob Holding was rather good too. Not an easy task fitting into a new formation, on a wet and windy Monday night but the youngster performed more smoothly than a badger’s codpiece. Never jumped in, never flustered.

The one puzzle last night, and it has been a puzzle for the past few weeks was Giroud, and if not Olivier, Danny. We just do not seem to have strikers who are involved in the game. Are they not getting the ball ? Are they not getting the support ? Or are they getting enough ball and support but just not using it properly ? Earlier in the season OG was terrifying defences, physically dominating them, shooting, hitting the target with his head. Recently not. Arsene has some serious thinking to do before Sunday.

Our opponents ? Not very good although I thought their goal was class. Perfect cross, poacher’s finish. They need a lot more of that, and probably a bit less reliance on the ‘set-piece’ wrestling match to clamber out of the bottom three. Traore is still a handful though – In the Boro relegation clear-out I would take him to the Ems.

So three points safely gathered in. Not a convincing but enough quality shown by us, wrapped in a little steel, to take the season forward again. Clearly Wembley will be a very different stage, but some of the good qualities the players – and the fans – demonstrated last night will ensure we set out with confidence on Sunday.

Enjoy your Tuesday.

 

*nice picture at the top from the Telegraph of a football team enjoying a goal.

95 Comments

Arsenal Versus ‘Boro: Simple Pleasures

07 04 09

I own one of those portable screens, you’ve probably seen them, they’re about the size of a slim hard backed book and are terrifically clever. One can watch television programmes, read electronic facsimiles of books and play simulated card games on them. As I say, quite extraordinarily impressive devices and I never fail to give a small, disbelieving shake of the head whenever I press the button and the thing begins to glow.

The various functions are controlled by fiendishly ingenious lines of computer code commonly referred to as applications. In order to choose which of these is most suited to one’s need previous users are often kind enough to write a brief summary of their experience, a review, if you like. Apart from being extremely public spirited these reviews are also very useful, but it is neither their utility nor the generosity of their authors which set the wheels turning and prompted these words.

It was rather the nature of one review in particular, a stylistic approach complimented by its content, the character of which caught my eye. The writer simply pointed out how enjoyable the application was, how easy she found it to use and how wonderful it was to be able to employ this particular programme. Concise, succinct, positive and cheery, the author told us nothing of herself but spoke with a simple eloquence of her pleasure at having her leisure time so enhanced.

As I cast my eye down (or rather moved the electronic type upwards – such is the modern world) I couldn’t help notice how different the majority of contributions from other users seemed to be. Self consciously acidic in tone, often little more than an opportunity to show off how much more they knew than than the people who had designed the application; how much better it could and indeed should be. There was an impatient arrogance and a burning desire to tell the world just how clever they were and how crucial it was that their opinions be shared.

There is, as you’ve doubtless already ascertained, a certain parallel to be seen here. An analogy with the world of the modern day football supporter. In truth the self same bombast and self important impatience with the experts is rife on any topic from climate change to cookery. The decline of the football fan isn’t the disease, merely another symptom.

I am these days firmly in the same camp as the lady who was simply delighted at being able to use something called Netflix on her shiny portable screen. I am happy to find the technology so helpful when I want to watch a football match. I’m glad to be given so much information on the players, to be treated to regular expert analysis on the club’s website by a certain Mr Clarke and to be able to cheer my chosen team along in the virtual company of many like minded folk.

I see absolutely no added value in attempting to understand why one season may be more successful than another, and nor do I want to convince hundreds of strangers that my opinion is more valid than theirs. I absolutely do not wish to involve myself in telling the experts at the club where they’ve gone wrong. Until someone can give me a convincing explanation as to how any of this would make an jot of difference to the fortunes of the players on the field or the running of the club I shall continue not to give a fig for such behaviour.

Today I am excited about football. I’m keen to get under way and watch the first match of the day as I travel to the Memorial Stadium for Bristol Rovers epic clash with Oldham. I should get home just in time to settle in front of my computer for the Arsenal versus Middlesbrough game. Whether Rovers have a realistic chance of a play off place or Arsenal a prayer of a top four finish is a matter of supreme indifference. There are two games of football to be enjoyed. Teams and managers lined up in a test of will, skill, tactics and fortune and all I have to do is first stand and then later sit back and watch. I can shout and cheer or groan and despair but I’m only a spectator, I’m not a part of either of the clubs I follow and they owe me absolutely nothing beyond a game of football.

It hurts me to see players or managers coming out with forced public relations statements alluding to them having ‘let down the fans’ as if they are performing solely for our benefit, striving only to please us. We are grown ups. We are able to deduce that their prime motivation is a powerful competitive urge present in all sports people. They want to win for their own pride, self respect and for their legacy in their chosen field of expertise. Pleasing the unwashed hordes in the cheap seats might add a certain spice to the occasion but unless we the supporters show ourselves to be an integral part of any success through unwavering and above all loud encouragement we forfeit any claim to even the slightest vicarious pleasure in the players’ triumphs.

So I shall enjoy the matches today and indeed for the rest of the season. I shall do so happy in the knowledge that whatever the temporary fortunes of my chosen club be they good or bad I am lucky to be living through a golden age where I am able to watch some of the greatest athletes the game has ever produced. I am able to do so with an ease I couldn’t have dreamed of as a child. Above all I shall do so as a happy amateur, a spectator and consumer, not an expert, not a critic and never, ever someone who thinks he knows better than Arsenal’s greatest ever manager.