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Arsenal Versus Sunderland: Keep Your Eyes On The Prize

Hallowed Ground

Sorry but I’m struggling to get my head into football mode for you this morning. Don’t panic, I haven’t gone all Jose Mourinho,  I don’t regard the final fixtures of a season as any less interesting or important than the first, it isn’t that. I’m just buried in another project and it’s demanding all of my time. I’ve missed watching the last three matches live and may well be working while watching this one so it’s becoming something of a habit as we hurtle towards a football free summer.

Luckily enough there is a website which allows me to watch the games without having to wait for the club to put them up and of course without knowing the result – something the official site seems to delight in sharing. I’ve had my suspicions after each game that we had won because one of the young men I support from time to time is an Arsenal fan and he can’t resist texting me a simple ‘Up the Arsenal’ message at around the time of the final whistle, something I suspect wouldn’t happen had we lost.

I shall at least be working from home this evening and so ought to be able to keep one eye on the action. It’ll be interesting to see if the game follows the pattern of our recent outings. Seems to me Arsène has bemused opponents by being less direct, less gung ho from the kick off playing a little deeper and gradually winding up the tempo as the game goes on. Teams who set out to park the bus must be confused to find their opponents content to slide the ball around among themselves as they peer from over the barricades wondering if the attack will ever come and if so, how it will transpire.

When your entire strategy is based upon tempting nine red and white shirts forward then instigating a long ball counter attack designed to drag the remaining central defender wide thus leaving a hole for others to romp through, it must be at least a little disconcerting to suddenly find three centre backs facing you and two wing backs pelting home to help them. It certainly seems to be working.

It needs to work twice more and we need City and Liverpool to screw up for our league ambitions to be realised. We all know the history, it’s happened before and who’s to say it won’t happen again? Of course it’s unlikely but if we don’t allow our dreams to draw us forward then our fears will surely drag us down. I would love another nail biting last day like last year, it rounds off a season rather wonderfully to confound one’s critics at the death. It would certainly provide the perfect aperitif to the cup final feast.

Standing in our way this evening is a Sunderland side who have had the kind of season they’d want to forget. It is in fact the kind of season that the small minority of so called fans, that gibbering, Wenger hating flock of self aggrandising, self important, attention seeking, septic sores on the beautiful face of our great club, seem to think Arsenal has endured. Having said that even if we were rooted at the foot of the table they’d still be over the top in their criticisms, so far from reality have they strayed.

Poor Sunderland are actually in the mire for real and not just in the imaginations of a few escaped lunatics. They cannot save themselves, their future is in the Championship but then so was that of Newcastle at a similar stage of last season and look how they performed against a certain Middlesex team who had it all still to play for. It’s a curious time of any campaign and weird results can and do happen. I just hope they don’t happen to us.

My real concern is the fitness of the players after a gruelling run of matches. There must be tiredness in some of the legs and with the cup final looming it would be such a shame for any of them to miss out. It would be especially galling for Alexis as he has just returned to form. Much like Aaron Ramsey the Chilean has that tenacious quality to keep trying to play his best possible football even when out of form and out of touch. Neither player likes to look for the simple option and both keep their heads up and keep plugging away until their natural game returns. Both have shown signs of getting back to their energetic, creative best and I will be keeping everything crossed that we see them at Wembley.

Sorry there I go again getting ahead of myself. It is difficult to maintain focus with an FA Cup final just around the corner. Even though Arsène keeps on getting us to Wembley I never tire of the occasion. However, Champion’s League qualification is, in some ways, as big a target and one we cannot give up until all hope is gone. Three points tonight keeps the flame alight and a favour from that most unlikely source – a certain Mr Pulis – will make the last day anything but boring.

If you’re at the match have a wonderful evening, if like me you’re watching online I hope the God of the dodgy internet stream smiles upon you and keeps you virus free. For the penultimate time in this league campaign I shall bid you farewell. Up the Arsenal!

33 Comments

When The Going Gets Tough, Arsenal Gets Going

big canon

I may be a minority of one but I am not having it. How could we join with our enemies in the Scouser-loving media and declare the top-4 battle all but over. The totally defeatist attitude of many brings shame to our club and its spiritual ancestors; the working men and women who were the makers of cannon and artillery who brought their fighting spirit to the football club they founded.

The wisdom of the great American New York Yankees team manager, Yogi Berra, is tried and tested; “It ain’t over ‘til it is over”.

For those who are mathematically challenged, the tables show Liverpool may have their head in front but they are far from safe.

Position Club Played Won Lost Drawn GF GA GD Points
1 Chelsea 36 28 3 5 76 29 47 87
2 Tottenham 36 24 8 4 73 24 49 80
3 Liverpool 37 21 10 6 75 42 33 73
4 Manchester City 36 21 9 6 72 38 34 72
5 Arsenal 36 21 6 9 72 43 29 69

Arsenal has two games in hand and can finish with a maximum 75 points. Should Liverpool fail to win their final game vs Middlesbrough and Arsenal do the business in the next two games, the Gunners will pip them to 4th place. Simples.

I don’t disagree. Middlesbrough is already relegated, a broken team, unable to score goals. But stranger things have happened in the modern history of Arsenal football. Take the 2005-06 season for instance. History records that Arsenal Football Club showed the heart of a champion taking our feckless neighbours down to the wire until they succumbed to the pressure. Below are the the results of those last 10 games.

Date Opponent Venue Result Pos Pt
12.03.2006 Liverpool home W2-1 5 47
18.03.2006 Charlton Athletic home W3-0 5 50
01.04.2006 Aston Villa home W5-0 5 53
09.04.2006 Manchester United away L0-2 6 53
12.04.2006 Portsmouth away D1-1 5 54
15.04.2006 West Bromwich Albion home W3-1 5 57
22.04.2006 Tottenham Hotspur home D1-1 5 58
01.05.2006 Sunderland away W3-0 5 61
04.05.2006 Manchester City away W3-1 5 64
07.05.2006 Wigan Athletic home W4-2 4 67

The cocky Cockerels and their bedfellows in the media had Arsenal written off in the run-in. Prior to facing Spurs on April 22nd The Observer in a preview by one Anna Kessel did its best to big-up the Spurs manager at the time:

“It is a measure of the man that Tottenham head coach Martin Jol appears unfazed whenever the subject of Arsenal rears its head. And so it may just be that the race for Champions League qualification will be decided by a contest of cool, with Jol the slight favourite.”

She signed off stating:

“….the pressure is all on Wenger.”

Up to the ultimate game of the season Arsenal was 5th when Spurs season literally went to the shitters after a meal of lasagna, losing their final game and Arsenal putting 4 past Wigan.  Lesson learnt, anyone?

Since that near-death experience Arsenal has consistently proven it is a team that generally refuses to roll over and die in the struggle to retain its average top-3 position in the League. The following is a summary of results of the last 10 games from the past 11 seasons:

Year Wins Draws Loss Pts Won Final Pts Pos Start  Pos End
15-16 5 5 0 20 71 3 2
14-15 6 3 1 21 75 3 3
13-14 6 2 2 20 79 3 4
12-13 8 2 0 26 73 5 4
11-12 4 3 1 15 70 3 3
10-11 2 5 3 11 68 2 4
09-10 5 3 2 18 75 3 3
08-09 7 2 1 23 72 4 4
07-08 5 3 2 18 83 1 3
06-07 3 3 4 12 68 3 4
05-06 7 2 1 23 67 5 4
Avg 5 3 2 19 73 3 3

Except for three seasons (06-07, 10-11 and 11-12) the club has put down some impressive late surges. Seven out of 11 seasons the club has earned 20 or more points. The last four seasons in particular have been the most consistent averaging 22 points in the last 10 games of the run-in.

This bodes very well for the next two games. Everton and Sunderland may be difficult opponents but Arsenal has a habit of coming through when Champions League qualification is on the line.

Results from the last 8 games indicate 6 wins and 2 losses. History shows Arsenal is fully capable of making it 8 wins. The club did it in 12-13, earning 26 points. With two games to go, 24 points are fully within reach in 2017.

Arsenal can only do what is in their power and hope Middlesbrough is willing and able to spoil Liverpool’s party on May 21st.

If we the Arsenal are going down to the Europa League, lets go down fighting.

Come on You Rip-RoaringGunners!

(PS: I dedicate my ultimate piece of the season in the memory of Frank, a co-founder of this blog, who taught me and many of us to support the best values Arsenal Football Club over the treachery, fickleness and cowardice of many, whether they be owner, administrator, player or fan. Cheers to you [and Zim Paul] wherever you rest. Click, Click, Click, Click, Click, Click. )

 

41 Comments

Arsenal: The Harder The Conflict, The Tastier The Bacon

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Good Morning Positivistas.

I am sure the glow of satisfaction persists among us this morning after the comprehensive slaughter of the Stoke? And on top of that justified satisfaction a glance at the mainstream and social media as your breakfast grills invitingly reveals multiple reference to “the heat is on” and “under pressure” alongside a nervy picture of Jurgen.

After the WHL game and the heathens smashing of the statue of St Totteringham all was despair, renting of replica shirts, wailing and gnashing of teeth in the land of Gooner. Less than 14 days on there is a spring in our step.

Marvellous game football innit?

Of yesterday’s proceedings it was our wing-backs that caught my eye. I say that because in days gone past, too many days, a trip to Stoke has seen us fail to break down the home side’s lumpen defence. Too often our elegance has foundered on the rocks of four or five two-metre high backs. The Stoke defence is always rough, but irritatingly it is often entirely effective in trumping our superior technique with 90 minutes of raw, ugly vigour. Not so yesterday.

The difference yesterday was that the home side were attacked along the flanks, their defenders pulled from side to side, picked on, turned and twisted. Hector particularly had a magnificent game and left Pieters, an experienced left back, in a heap on several occasions. That the opener, decisive in its timing and beautiful in its simplicity came from Hector’s cross, was no chance outcome. And this was of course the same wingback position that the Ox centred so beautifully for Danny to score against the Mancs last Sunday.

On the left hand side the liberation of Nacho is almost complete. Again he provided width and opened gaps for the Spaniard to score, as well as for Olivier and Alexis to steam through the spaces with Johnson left on his arse.

Breaking through defences that are set up to contain and frustrate us has been our failing this season, and last. With the use of wing-backs, and I think the Ox, Gibbs and Hector are naturally attacking players rather than any sort of classic full back type, we have found a key to open that particular lock.

The second encouraging thing noticed yesterday was a willingness to match Stoke kick for kick, sly elbow for elbow, theatrical tumble for diva dive. They were not used to receiving their own medicine from us. It is a truth universally acknowledged that if you are required to wrestle with pigs that you will inevitably become a bit grubby.

Of the rest of our lads I saw an entirely professional performance, a couple of flashes of excellence and our second goal was a joy to behold. As important there was a nine minute period after Crouch ‘scored’ (ahem) during which we were under pressure, corner after accurate corner from Stoke raining in, but we did not crack. Our players were calm, everyone knew their job, we drove them backwards and finally they were forced away.

Like me I am sure you will have an eye on the London stadium this afternoon. Which ‘Ammers will turn up, and which Liverpool?

Perspective is the thing though, and time.

 

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Right, that is breakfast cooked. Enjoy your Sunday.

114 Comments

Once more unto the breach, dear friends, once more.

I can only apologize to those calling in to taste Stew’s normal breakfast feast. He has been tied up with real life stuff and you are stuck with me.

It’s a tea-time game in the land of the Orcs. A fixture that we normally come away from battered, bruised and short of points. They really don’t like us up there, ever since Aaron Ramsey made Shawcross cry and his Mum had to pick him up from the ground, so upset was he with Ramsey who broke his own leg and blamed poor little Ryan.

I have no doubt that the usual roughhouse tactics will be rolled out by their very unlikeable manager, Mark Hughes.

We will have to be physically and mentally strong because you know if we go in with similar tactics we will soon find ourselves a man or two short.

This being our 3rd game in quick succession and a 4th coming on Tuesday I have no idea what team Arsene will put out. But regardless of the personnel, we have no option but try to win.  A win will put pressure on Liverpool and it really is the last chance saloon.

I’m sure it will be 3 at the back, but which 3? No idea.

So all in all I’m not much help really. I just hope the game is fair and free from controversy.If we can’t win, let it be because we didn’t play well enough.

I have to say, despite everything, I’m quietly confident.

Enjoy the game and keep the faith.

56 Comments

Arsenal: Today was a good day

 

IMG_2229.jpgBonjour Positive mesdames et messieurs,

Well that was a tricky obstacle well negotiated last night, I am sure you will agree.

The statistic was relentlessly pounded into my ear that we had not won at St Mary’s in a League game since 2003 by every pundit who could get a microphone before kick off. The statistic might have made a little more sense, though reduced the impact, if they had qualified Arsenal’s record by saying that between 2004/2005 and 2012/2013 the Saints were out of the Premier League so there was no question of us playing them anyway. Nobody mentioned it was the sports meeja’s darling ‘Onest ‘Arry who presided over Southampton’s relegation. I wonder why that was ?

Nevertheless since their return in 2012, and after a first drubbing at the Emirates, Southampton have been a bloody nuisance in recent seasons. Generally they play not in a nasty, in-your-face, they-don’t-like-it-up-’em sort of way but by beating us at football. Losing at football to the South coast side must frustrate Arsene as much as it irritates me. To their credit Southampton try to play football, and have an excellent supply line of young Academy players and a shrewd overseas recruitment policy. Each year their best players and their manager are poached in the summer window, but three months later the bounce back, a new man at the tiller and a new sets of youngsters and bargains ready to do battle. I admire tenacity.

Anyway enough of the love in with the opposition from me and on to the game.

The first half was OK although it took us 20 minutes to really get into the game and for our passing game to click into gear. I felt Danny was far too lonely early on. Perhaps a bit of tiredness after Sunday although we know at PA that the “slow start” is a trait that has followed us up and down the country, with no obvious pattern or trigger required. Fortunately Petr was on hand to deal with Southampton’s two goal scoring chances. His save just before half time from a Redmond shot in the top corner was absolutely top class, as good a save as I have seen him make ever.

Once we did get into gear however I never felt that we were in any difficulty or that the result of the game was in doubt. The quality of our passing in the final third was good and improving. Ozil, Ramsey, Granit and Sanchez were gradually playing the ball about faster and faster. At the back Mustafi, Holding and Nacho kept the Southampton attack at arms’ length. Even the perpetually annoying Shane Long could not ruffle them. The German defender I thought was excellent, considering it was his first game back. He had Mossy round his little finger. Shkodran has the eyes of a choirboy allied with the work-ethic of an assassin, the rogue. I was also massively pleased to see Hector have a good game. He has had a torrid time with injury and a drop off in his early season form. Like Samson however, with his haircut finally sorted out, our young Spaniard was back to his best last night.

One marvellous goal from Sanchez decided the contest and broke Saints. One further tidy finish from Giroud, again good to see him make his mark after waiting patiently for the chance.

The only negative on the evening ? A sad sight to see the Ox stagger off. I have everything crossed that it is a minor hamstring strain and he has the chance to quickly get back. If there is one player I want available in the next four games, even in front of our German wand wielder and our Chilean wizard, it is AOC.

Our Champions League qualifying place remains a possibility. Let us stretch our fingers out toward the prize together.

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Enjoy Thursday.

 

76 Comments

Arsenal Versus Southampton: Drop The Monkey

godzilla

There was something extremely cathartic about Danny Welbeck’s goal on Sunday. A palpable relief of tension so orgasmic that my involuntary exclamation awoke Liz from a deep and dreamless sleep. I was watching in the wee small hours having evaded the score until I returned home from my labours and had managed to remain quietly respectful to those already ensconced in the land of nod. There are though some moments in a football match which are like a sneeze – you just can’t help but produce an explosion of unexpected noise and the second, decisive goal of our encounter with Jose Mourinho and his merry men was just such a moment.

There was of course the fact that the game was all but over from the instance the ball crashed in off the underside of the bar, but there were other things in play. While the team have been battling to find lost form and wayward confidence I’ve often found myself watching games as if holding my breath. Like observing a drunken relative carrying a baby across an untidy room I’m willing them to succeed but all the time oppressed with the nagging thought that the whole enterprise is one misstep from disaster.

That tension blew out like a surfacing whale when The Ox’s perfect cross connected so sweetly with Danny’s bonce. Earlier in the game the commentators had been wittering about young Noddy Holding’s slightly under hit back pass as if it were the greatest disaster since Blues Brothers 2000 and I was feeling for the kid. He’d had a good game, looked skilful and composed in possession and brimming with confidence yet they’d hung him out to dry on the flimsiest pretext. So when he was instrumental in setting up that goal another bubble of frustration burst.

He completely Coquelined the United turnover when we seemed to have lost our way, momentum, and the ball, not only robbing the opposition player but sliding out a long leg to direct a sweetly improvised pass to AOC which took another defender off the board. It was a gorgeous moment fully deserving of the goal which followed.

So, if my noisy nocturnal instincts were correct the team felt the monkey leave their back on Sunday afternoon and tonight, while I don’t expect an easy game, should at least be a really good contest. Southampton at St Mary’s has provided an uncomfortable experience for visiting Arsenal fans in recent times. I was surprised to discover that we must go back as far as 2003 for our last league victory there. We have of course a memorable FA Cup win in January to balance against this disagreeable statistic, but cup ties are notoriously individual and shouldn’t be seen as part of the trend.

On their day these Saints players can be obdurate and awkward opponents. They came away from Anfield with a goalless draw, played out similarly fruitless ninety minutes with Hull and Bournemouth and unlike Arsenal have beaten West Brom and Crystal Palace. Set against these results they also leaked seven goals in total against City and Chelsea and so a picture emerges of a capable side but one which, with a fair wind and a good start can be put to the sword.

The big question hanging over our team selection, apart from the usual knocks and scrapes, is the injury to Lauren Koscielny. I can’t overstate his importance to our back line and you’d have to be a football illiterate not to appreciate the calm he brings to those around him and the complete arse aching irritant he must be to every striker unfortunate enough to have to face him. With a new formation still bedding in his leadership and nous have been and will continue to be vital for our chances in the remaining fixtures. Can he be risked? With a cup final looming and our league position precarious it’s a tough choice for the manager to ponder.

The other variable in recent games has been in the centre forward position. Gone are the days when our top two was a given. We have now the luxury of five players each capable of bringing something different to the role. Needless to say I like them all and will be happy whoever starts but in an away fixture it may be that Giroud’s masterful hold up play and defensive cover at set pieces wins out. Of course I have no clue about tactics – no more than any other blogger out there and will not be offering advice to the manager. Having an opinion and having expertise are as far apart as reading Arthur C. Clarke is to  building a space ship: leave it to those who know is my mantra and one I’m content to repeat.

Once again the fixture has fallen at a time when I will be at the coal face so it’ll be a Thursday morning breakfast match for me. For the rest of you I trust it will be a joyous evening and a rare chance this season to see the Arsenal rolling without that proverbial handbrake on. To my mind beating United was only half of the job  – stepping over them in the table tonight would complete the task. I believe we can do it. I look forward to being proved right.

52 Comments

Arsenal Has The Lightest Midfield In 6 Years

Help Wanted

Post Manchester United there is a noticeable mood of cautious optimism among Arsenal fans as we all digest the significance of victory over the old enemy and their wretched manager. Many now realize there is a feasible route to achieving top-4 if Arsenal can win their next two games and come within one point of Liverpool before the Scousers next game this weekend.

This optimism may explain why some of the most negative nellies in the fanbase now have something positive to say. Out of the blue came a tweet on Sunday disclosing that, unlike the media hype that this was Wenger’s first PL victory over Mourinho, there is the little known fact that the Portuguese has never won a game at the Emirates after 10 years of trying.

To be honest the only “fans’ who remain glum and disappointed about club’s three wins out of four are a handful bloggers and WOBs who have invested heavily in the narrative that this was a disastrous season which should lead to Wenger being relieved of management. As I have repeatedly stressed most of the uber-bloggers, podcasters and tweeters have no interest in facts and unbiased data which conflict with their pet narrative. To the contrary they engage in mental gymnastics to promote sensationalism and fear. Hence for them a disappointing season is due entirely to Wenger.  How can a manager with 3 league titles, 6 FA cups and 20 straight years in the top-4 go from hero to zero after one bad year?

Apparently anything justifies a WEXIT, failing that go for a GAXIT or KROXIT.

But readers of PA are not fooled by this simplistic, puerile, febrile analysis by “Arsenal’ bloggers and the football media. For my part I have done the research to demonstrate that the prolonged absence of Santi Cazorla over the past two seasons has correlated with a huge decline in results. Many of you have argued there is more in the mortar than the pestle. So I decided to revisit the data.

It struck me that over the past year there was a significant turnover in the Arsenal midfield. Arteta, Rosicky and Flamini were let go and Jack Wilshere was loaned out. The only new midfielder brought in was Granit Xhaka.  How significant is/was this turnover?

The historical data provides the clearest of answers. The turnover in midfield in the summer of 2016 has left the Arsenal midfield the lightest in numbers, the most inexperienced and the least potent in goals in six seasons. The following table provides key data on the state of the Arsenal midfield at the beginning of each of the last six seasons.

11/12 12/13 13/14 14/15 15/16 16/17
No. 9 9 12 9 11 7
Age 234 233 322 257 282 182
App 910 983 1135 1250 1424 827
Goals 102 118 129 146 156 105
Pos 3rd 4th 4th 3rd 2nd ?

I chose 2011/12 as the base year for this analysis because it marked the end of the Fabregas era and ushered the reign of Mikel Arteta who arrived late in the 2011 transfer window. Just to remind those of short memories, the worst of the Fabregas-Nasri divorce from Arsenal was the 8-2 shellacking at the hands of United at Old Trafford when the club could barely find a decent XI to play, having to rely on rookies such as Francis Coquelin, Armand Traore and Carl Jenkinson and to give the 18 year old Alex Oxlade-Chamberlain  a painful debut.  The long drawn-out transfer saga of that year led to the infamous last minute “trolley dash” for players such as Arteta, Mertsacker, Andre Santos, Park Chi Sung and Yossi Benayoun.

It is noticeable that both midfielders from the trolley dash were grizzled veterans; Arteta at 30 years-old had already played 162 times for Everton and Benayoun at 32 and had made 170+ appearances for both Liverpool, West Ham and Chelsea. Despite the doom and gloom at the start of the season, they, together with their colleagues steered Arsenal to 3rd in the league.  Below is a table giving a flavor of the contribution of all 10 midfielders that year.

Player Premier League
Apps Goals
Abou Diaby 0+4 0
Tomáš Rosický 19+9 1
Mikel Arteta 29 6
Aaron Ramsey 27+7 2
Alex Song 34+0 1
Andrey Arshavin [L] 8+11 1
Emmanuel Frimpong 3+3 0
Yossi Benayoun 10+9 4
Francis Coquelin 6+4 0

Note: Players out on loan are excluded

By 2015-16, the midfield had matured into a qualitatively stronger animal with the addition of world-class, experienced technicians such as Santi Cazorla in 2013 and Mesut Ozil in 2014. Pre-season this was a group with 282 years of experience, 1424 appearances and 156 goals between them. Is it any surprise that there was sufficient quality and quantity in midfield to steer the club to 2nd despite losing Santi Cazorla for half the season and slipping from 1st in the table early December 2015.

The reality, however, is that father time and injuries had decimated Arteta, Rosicky, Flamini and Wilshere as evident in the following data on their playing time in 2015-16.

Name Premier League
Apps Goals
Tomáš Rosický 0 0
Mikel Arteta 0 (9) 0
Jack Wilshere 1 (2) 0
Mesut Özil 35 6
Alex Oxlade-Chamberlain 9 (13) 1
Aaron Ramsey 29 (2) 5
Santi Cazorla 15 0
Mathieu Flamini 12 (4) 0
Francis Coquelin 21 (5) 0
Mohamed Elneny 9 (2) 0

No wonder in the summer of 2016 Wenger and Arsenal decided to part company with the four (4) mentioned above. It should be emphasized these players were critical to stabilizing and revitalizing the club in the post-Fabregas era and winning two FA cups in the process (something Fabregas, Nasri, Van Persie et al were never able to achieve). The reality is, their departure left a massive hole in the Arsenal midfield. The following is their individual and combined contribution to Arsenal up to 2015-16:

Name Age App Goals
Tomáš Rosický 36 245 28
Mikel Arteta 35 140 16
Jack Wilshere 25 154 12
Mathieu Flamini 33 222 11
Total 104 761 67

Compared to the current midfield, the four represented 57% more years experience, 92% more appearances and 63% more goals. Granted, except for Flamini, none of them made a contribution to the 2015-16 campaign but in any football club that is a significant loss of experience.

To fill the breach, the sole midfield signing was 24 year-old Granit Xhaka. This is a player with six years experience in top clubs in Switzerland and Germany (FC Basel and Borussia Moechen Gladbach) with 136 total club appearances and 8 goals, but hardly a patch on the experience of Rosicky, Arteta, Wilshere and Flamini.  Moreover, instead of having no less than nine (9) midfielders at the beginning of a season, the group was reduced to seven (7).

It seems Arsene Wenger must have felt a midfield complement of Ozil, Cazorla, Ramsey, Coquelin, Oxlade-Chamberlain, Elneny and the newly signed Xhaka could see the club through. To be honest, that was more or less the same number available to play in 2015-16.

That was a gamble which didn’t payoff especially after Santi succumbed to injury. I don’t expect Wenger, who in my considered opinion will be the manager next year, to again take that risk. He must have already identified his targets and put out feelers to his prospects. I expect another high quality midfielder to be signed next summer, someone in the mould of our little Spanish magician who can act as a deep-lying playmaker.  (I am assuming the top, top priority will be re-signing Ozil and Oxlade-Chamberlain.)

In closing, for those who still doubt the value of technically gifted players like Mikel Arteta, I leave you with what to me is an amazing statistic; he made only 9 substitute appearances in the 2015-16 season, weighed down by his dodgy calves, but still managed an 87% passing percentage, the lowest ever in his Arsenal career.

Never forget what your Momma said: “You never know what you have until it is gone.”

You never know

 

53 Comments

Arsenal: The Angel of Fortune

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Good morning Positives,

A good Monday morning indeed after a very good Sunday afternoon. And pleasing for all the right ‘footballing’ reasons.

As anticipated Jose had rolled into town in his bus, and to be fair to the Portuguese, his chosen mode of transport had allowed him to build up an extraordinary 24 game unbeaten run in the PL (14 wins/11 draws). Checking the records I see that since 1992, and despite the heights that Blue Nose took them to, that is their best ever.

From our perspective we needed a win to ensure the chance of Champions League continues to flicker, and the three points were well earned. While Citeh look to have picked up their top 4 form again if any of you saw Klopp’s touchline meltdown at Anfield yesterday, not to mention their dropped points against Saints, you will be cheerful. As for his post match explanation about the dryness of the Anfield pitch that was truly odd.

Returning to the Emirates from where I was sitting the first half was a bit disappointing. We had a lot of possession and passed well, right up to the edge of the visitors penalty area. Beyond that point we had no threat, with either Danny on his own and surrounded by three blue shirted defenders or, on other occasions, no Arsenal player in the box. Mesut seemed to be playing very, very deep. Having looked at the first half highlights again last night I was probably a little over-critical. We opened them up once/twice, with Aaron’s strike drawing a good low down save from De Gea and Danny managing (for once) to turn with the ball at his feet and get his shot away. One nasty moment was a pass back by Holding with the ball stopping dead halfway to Cech. Too much pre match watering of the grass perhaps (as Klopp might say?) The longer the half went on I thought the more we controlled the game.

Highlight of the first half ? A rousing chorus of “Fuck off, Mourinho”, a theme that united all Gooners, Inners/Outers/Fence-Sitters/male/female/young/old etc. Solidarity among the Arsenal community – Marvellous. (It brought a tear to the eye, it really did).

Going into the second half there were grounds for cautious optimism therefore. We seemed a bit more urgent and the Ox in particular was snapping into tackles and, when he had the ball , speeding up the line with the ball at his feet and straight in Darmian’s face.

The opener ? As big a surprise to me as to any one reading this I’d guess. We know Granit has a good shot on him but, other than a couple of pre Christmas efforts, his accuracy has been diabolical for weeks. I was as silent as the fans around me as the ball arced ever so slowly over the scrambling De Gea.

Bit of luck ? Yeah but we were trying to score, and they weren’t.

And within two minutes the best piece of football all afternoon. The Ox retrieving a loose clearance with Rob Holding, and whipping in an excellent cross, Aaron, Danny and Alexis all lined up on the six yards line. A controlled, strong header, Danny delighted, pandemonium among Arsenal fans. Nothing Smalling or De Gea could do. Yet again the Trafford Park hierarchy must wonder why they sold Welbeck.

Although they had more than half an hour left the Mancs never managed to put us under a period of sustained pressure. A couple of long range Rooney efforts were their high point.

I shall leave you to fight it out for Arsenal man of the match. One of those games where a lot of players caught the eye. My particular preference is Rob Holding. Elegant and growing in confidence. From our opponents Tuanzebe is a big lad for a 19 year old, he had a great game and it was his full debut. I’m impressed.

Enjoy Monday. A quick turnaround before another cracker at St Mary’s on Wednesday.

PS. And might I welcome the Seychelles Gooners.

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Arsenal Versus Man United: Publish it not in the streets of Ashkelon

Elie

“You know what I’d like now Stew? I’d like your lot to win the FA Cup and us to win the Europa. If nothing else it will annoy Spurs, City and of course spoil the party for Chelsea.” It was funny to be chatting amiably with my only Man United supporting mate the day before we were due to play one another.

Once upon a long long time ago this fixture was the big one. This could decide titles and would certainly be the clash of the titans. Steve and I would have struggled to wish one another well. Now we just hope for a good game and a poke in the eye for the upstart clubs who’ve come along and so upset the status quo.

I feel for Steve. Having to stomach his bête noire as manager of his club has not been easy for him, seeing players like Fellaini elbow their awful way into the first team, selling his favourite striker – to us of all people – have combined to stretch his positivity to the limit. But fair play to him he still supports through thick and thin.

He was also generous enough to say he hopes Arsène signs for another couple of seasons and wins the league, so much does he, a Man United fan since birth, despise the anti Arsenal idiots in the media and in our fan base.

Still, it feels strange going into this match of all matches as two bridesmaids, neither side the bride. Let’s be frank we’re not even bridesmaids, more like boyfriends to the bridesmaids best mates, at least where the league is concerned. Both clubs could still come out of the season with a trophy and European competition next time around, but so bloated is the expectation surrounding these giants of English football that such an outcome won’t be seen as good enough.

It’s odd how the perceptions of certain club’s status differs from others in the Premier League. Spurs failed for over two decades to finish above Arsenal and yet the experts decided some time ago that the power in North London had shifted to White Hart Lane. Now they will finish above us confirming their pre-eminence and yet a second place finish for them is we’re reliably informed, a success while it was a failure for Arsenal last year. Surely if Spurs are now a bigger, more powerful side than Arsenal then they must be the ones who have failed while we must have over achieved. You can’t have it both ways.

Anyway today isn’t about a resurgent cockerel, it’s about a match between the fifth and sixth placed sides. This is territory more familiar to Man United than it is to us, which is simple testimony to how well Arsène Wenger has done for so very long. This was always going to be a tough season and so it has proved, we can have no complaints – after all it only hurts so much because we’ve been treated to an unprecedented run of twenty consecutive top four finishes. The exception has proved the rule.

My hopes for the final games of this season are exactly the same as they were before ever a ball was kicked. I want us to win as many matches as possible and finish as high up the league as possible. That never changes regardless of where we are in the table. You may say I’m wringing out a bone dry dishcloth in the hope of a few drops of consolation but I’m not. I’m doing what all fans do. Hope we’ll win our division and once that ceases to be possible hope we do as well as we can.

I only have to look to my mate Steve and see what he has endured since Ferguson left his club to realise how fortunate we have been. At least I still love the manager, can see this season as a one off rather than another in a series of decline and stagnation and at least my side has a chance to prevent John Terry from changing out of his suit to celebrate the double.

Anyway I must leave you now, I’m off to work again so I’ll have to catch the game online somewhere. For those able to watch it I say this: It may not be for high stakes but it’s still Arsenal v Man United and that always counts – regardless of where we are in the league. So keep your heads and chins up and enjoy the game wherever you may be.

144 Comments

Alexis Sanchez: Asset or Liability for Arsenal?

 

Brando

Like Brando in The Godfather, I am loathe to tell anyone outside the family  what I am thinking but given the current atmosphere of mischief and sensationalism surrounding Arsenal Football Club, needs must, especially when the usual subjects are avoiding the truth like a plague.

Alexis Sanchez is undoubtedly Arsenal’s most potent offensive player. If you tuned into the mainstream media, most Arsenal blogs and podcasts you would be struck by the tones of worship when they describe his performances. You would think he is irreplaceable.

But sporting history is replete with examples of great offensive players who, rather than being assets, are downright liabilities to the overall team. American professional sports, whether it be baseball, basketball or their gridiron football, has numerous examples of blockbuster trades to get rid players with gaudy offensive stats in return for  new talent with whom hopefully a more successful  future can be built.

One such trade that never took place was the legendary Michael Jordan of the Chicago Bulls who was the dominant worldwide sports marketing figure in towards the end the last century and into this millenium. This episode in the history of the Bulls has literally been airbrushed from history and is unknown to most Gen-Xers and Millenials.

In 1988 when Jordan was coming off of being the Most Valuable Player, Defensive Player of the Year, and the league’s leading scorer during the 1987-1988 season, the Bulls were close to dealing him away for two high draft picks. I vaguely remember the story from my days as a basketball hound but had to dig deep in the internet to confirm.  According to this piece on “the-trades-that-didnt-happen” the Bulls were on the verge of being eliminated in the 1988 Eastern Conference Semifinals by the Detroit Pistons and the team had won just four total playoff games – and sported a 4-15 playoff record – in the first four seasons with Michael Jordan. There was a large dividing line among Bulls management that led to a theory that the team would

“never win a title because Jordan’s style of one-on-one play eliminated the other players as contributors.”

I am increasingly becoming like those skeptical members of the Bulls’ hierarchy when it comes to Alexis Sanchez at Arsenal. Having watched him very closely since he came to this club, while ecstatic about his unpredictability and the wonderful goals he has scored I have become increasingly alarmed at his negative impact on the team dynamic.

As some of us have highlighted, Wengerball depends on maintaining possession as the club progresses up the field seeking opportunities for vertical passes to get behind defenses and create scoring opportunities. Over the past 3 years the emphasis on possession has declined.  Arsenal is now the 3rd best possession team in the league behind City and Liverpool and the frequency of turnovers in midfield leading to dangerous counter attacks by opposing teams have left me with a bad state of heartburn and acid reflux.

Apart from @blackburngeorge and a few others this is a minority opinion among the denizens of this blog. Many regard his goals and the unpredictability he brings to the team as more important than his wastefulness in possession. As friends, who love the club, we never hesitate to disagree, respectfully.

Outside PA, in the mainstream media as well as most Arsenal bloggers and podcasters, there is virtual sycophancy when it comes to Alexis. It is literally taboo to criticize him. Like the political correctness crowd, they are the self-made guardians of what is acceptable discourse among Arsenal fans. Based on their recent publications,  evidently blaming the manager, for one bad year in 21, is more likely to generate clicks and satisfy the snarling, howling mob that needs a scapegoat for their disappointments.

Unlike my opinionated colleagues in the blogsphere, as is my wont, I decided to do some research and see how Alexis compares with the leading strikers from other clubs fighting for top-4 positions in the Premier League. As usual the stone-cold data has no agenda, creates no headlines and is oblivious to feelings and emotion (courtesy of Whoscored.com).

Sanchez Kane Costa Aguero Ibra Avg. Score
Apps 31(2) 25(1) 32 23(5) 27(1)
Mins  2,809  2,187  2,848  2,234 2,437 2,503
Goals 19 21 19 18 17 19
Assists 9 6 6 1 5 5
SpG 3.3 3.4 3.2 4.6 4.1 3.7
Drb 2.7 1.2 1.7 2.5 0.6 1.7
Fouled 1.7 1.6 2.6 1.1 0.7 1.5
Off 0.8 0.7 0.8 0.8 1.3 0.9
Disp 3.2 1.7 3.4 2.3 1.4 2.4
UnsTch 2.5 2.9 3.2 2.5 2 2.6
Key Passes 2.2 1.4 1.1 0.9 1.7 1.5
Avg Passes 43.5 19.6 29.5 25 37.3 31
PS% 73.4 72.7 74.7 82.2 73.6 75.3
Rating 7.7 7.56 7.44 7.25 7.41 7.47

Mins – Minutes played; Goals – Total goals; Assists -Total assists;  SpG – Shots per game; KeyP -Key passes per game; Drb – Dribbles per game; Fouled – Fouled per game; Off – Offsides per game; Disp – Dispossessed per game; UnsTch – Bad control per game; Avg Passes – Avg Passes per game; PS% – Passing success percentage          

Good Alexis

Given he is not dedicated center-forward like those in the peer-group, often playing wide left, his numbers are noteworthy:

  • Goals scored is right on the average, at 19.
  • Assists are 80% above the average and one-third higher than the next best, i.e. Kane and Costa.
  • Highest number of dribbles per game at 2.7 is arguably a positive especially for a wide forward.
  • Fouled at a higher than average per game although nowhere near Costa-levels.
  • Key passes are above average at 2.2 per game compared to an average of 1.46. Only Ibra comes remotely close at 1.7.

Bad Alexis

  • His passes per game widely exceed all his peers, 43.5 vs an average of 31. Only Ibrahimovich at 37.3 is remotely close. Seems his peers are less involved in the passing game and focused on being present in the box.
  • Passing percentage is below the average, 73.4 vs 75.3. Only Kane has worse passing percentage but he touches the ball on average over 50% less than Alexis.
  • Being dispossessed far higher than the average, 3.2 times per game vs 2.4. Only Costa is dispossessed at a higher rate at 3.4.

Having seen the evidence, ladies and gentlemen of the jury, how say you? Asset or liability?