95 Comments

Arsenal : Rumble in the Mumbles

231Bore da Welsh speaking Positive people and good morning to any others who have stumbled across the threshold,

A foul, wet morning in Norfolk which does nothing to deflect my good mood and optimism this Sunday.

Of yesterday’s game it provided probably the easiest three points we have earned all season. Given the thumping we administered to the ‘Ammers that is saying something but I say yesterday had the edge in terms of easy contest.

Admittedly the afternoon started a little differently. With the shiny new Mr Clement in charge, hair neatly cut and black overcoat tightly buttoned, I anticipated a vigorous workout against a club who have had the ‘eye’ (¤) on us in recent seasons.

Our hosts starting purposefully, playing a bit of real passing football, harrying our lads with intent for half an hour. As is our usual modus operandi we allowed the Welsh dragon to run out of puff about the 30  and then imposed ourselves to take control of the game. Sanchez. The opener before half time was inevitable I think as by that stage Sanchez and Ozil had run off the rust that had accumulated from their lengthy holidays and both were able to find space and receive enough ball to weave their respective magic spells.

The kerfuffle that Olivier’s ankle caused following the goal was a bit mystifying, but not as mystifying at first sight as the card that young Ki picked up for diving in our box. HOWEVER, having had the opportunity to review the incident from a number of different angles while I see contact, yes. I do not see contact sufficient to fell the player in the manner observed. Good call referee and a considerable relief to go in 1-0 up after what had been a strong finish to the half by our hosts. On such small details victories pivot.

If Mr Jones eagle eyed wisdom in spotting the South Korean’s deceit was an omen the Welsh failed to heed its portent. Instead, as the game sparked back into life in the second half, they found themselves pinned in their half by a mighty hurricane in black and fluorescent yellow. We really turned up the game to top gear and the Swans could not live with it.

Over the next 20 minutes they disintegrated like an upset jigsaw puzzle when the fates turned against them. And what fates they were on the day! The goals themselves I acknowledge were hardly classic Wengerball, and I admit a certain sympathy for our former keeper as he plucked the ball out from the second own goal. Rage at the moon all you like Lukasz, with our lads banging in accurate shots from all around the box there is a probability that one day the deflection will be in our favour, and yesterday the luck fell our way.

Of our lads ? As I think was said yesterday by several contributors on here Alex Iwobi had an outstanding game and the longer the game went on the stronger he got. Four shots in the box – that is what I want to see. The first time that Aaron has started two consecutive games this season and that continuity was reflected in his greater influence and more certain touch. I thought Monreal was great yesterday. I thoroughly enjoyed the physical battle he and Dyer and Naughton got into. And finally a word of praise for Gabriel who, as he always does, came in and did his job thoroughly and quietly.

Of our opponents Sigurdsson is a good player. He will find suitors knocking if, as seems probable, Swansea slip away in May. The rest ? Over to Mr Clement for some hard work.

Hwyl fawr am nawr and enjoy your Sunday!

172 Comments

Arsenal Versus Swansea: On The Tip Of The Tongue Of The Year

Mumbles Lighthouse

When I saw the pictures of the Arsenal training in wintry snow ahead of today’s trip to Swansea I confess to harbouring a certain sympathy for them. As my Scottish uncle used to say to me that snell wind makes everone fair jeelit. The sympathy has evaporated this morning as I sit in my frozen writing shed stabbing with numb fingers at my frost hardened Smith-Corona. But on I plough.

It wasn’t only compassion which moved in my breast at the sight of poor Danny Welbeck muffled in his muffler. I also felt a twang of envy. You see I rather like the town of Swansea and I was a little jealous of the players and fans who will get to visit today. I should imagine the beach at Rhossili will be a bit parky this weekend so I doubt a trip to the Gower is on the cards, but I do urge you to make a weekend of it if you are travelling and at least have a little tour.

Swansea City FC, we are told, has done much to put the ‘ugly, lovely town’ on the map. Since their ascendency to the higher reaches they’ve earned plaudits for playing the game as many of us like to see it played. A fashionable football team allied with a popular university can encourage an enlightened view of what had previously been regarded as a somewhat grim industrial setting.

Sadly the Swans have been struggling of late. I’ll leave you to decide whether the managerial merry go round in which they’ve indulged themselves has been cause or effect of this unwelcome downturn in  their fortunes. Personally I think it is always a mistake in life to panic, to chop and change when things are going badly.

An unfashionable view in a footballing world where many seem to crave change simply for the sake of change itself. I can only assume that decades of consumer culture, of an economy built on endless growth, demands we throw away and replace at every opportunity. This is not the road to happiness, merely the endless dissatisfaction of the spoilt child given too much, too often.

So while I am grateful for any advantage to the team I support I am also saddened to see one of the few smaller clubs to actually beat us by coming and out playing football going through hard times. I believe the league is improved by keeping the good guys and losing the dross and not the other way around.

Improvement of the league isn’t the concern of most of you, I know this. All that matters is three points and that is of course your prerogative. Just as it is the prerogative of those who take a more holistic view to want to be part of a culture of excellence rather than a lowest common denominator tactical dirge, which, if given too much rope, will strangle the golden goose as audiences eventually tire and turn away.

So Swansea are all at sea and should be there for the taking. Surely an away win is such a guaranteed result that there is no point in even watching. Just go bung a tenner on us at the bookies and collect your one pence winnings at ten to five. Well perhaps. Perhaps if you’d never watched a season of football from start to finish. Maybe this is your reality. In my reality teams who are struggling need to be put to the sword a little before their fragile confidence is exposed.

Concede an unlucky goal such as that fortuitous, bobbling, pinball series of deflections which gifted Preston the lead the other day and that fragile confidence will cease to be a factor. A team in decline can still surprise you and we will need to be sharp and up to the scratch from the moment Mr Jones emits his primary peep.

What of the teams? Swansea will be without Neil Taylor after having his cheekbone broken in training on Wednesday. I don’t know much about the estimable Mr Taylor but as he played every minute of the Welsh teams heroic failure in the Euros I’m sure Kelly, our resident Cymru expert, can fill us in on the details. Losing a first choice international full back against an Arsenal team rightly famed for their fast, wide attacking game cannot be a good thing.

They will also be missing Jefferson Antonio Montero Vite who is one player and not four as you might think. He is a fast and dangerous wingers and one that the home team will surely miss. Talking of flyers we still see no sign of Theo nor of Hector and I am just beginning to worry that Theo’s small, irrelevant, only keeping him out as a precaution, niggle might be turning into something more significant. It is a mark of the quality in our squad that we can miss these two hugely important players and still approach any fixture with confidence.

Given Gabriel’s flawless understudy shift when Hector first joined the sick list and seeing just what a player Arsène signed in Lucas Perez I don’t think we need to be overly concerned. Of course we want our first choice players fit and healthy but Perez in particular excites me and so I’ll be happy to see him step up in Theo’s absence.

With Danny back and raring to go we have a superfluity of striking options which ought to make us blush. Sanchez and Giroud are in stunning scoring form, Mesut has also stepped up in front of goal this season and we all know the boy Iwobi can find the net when the fancy takes him. Add to that the goals Aaron can get us running from midfield and the Swansea defence ought to be in for a trying time this afternoon.

I shan’t be watching with you today as I have been thoroughly duped by my ever resourceful wife into attending what I’d assumed was an evening event but transpires to start at three and finish at seven thirty. That will teach me not to listen when I’m trying to concentrate on Doom Three Hell On Earth. Lesson learned. Press pause and get all of the details before saying yes to anything.

If you are lucky enough to be in beautiful South Wales today then wrap up warm and should you bump into me at Longleat’s Festival Of Lights don’t tell me the score, it wouldn’t enhance our friendship.

124 Comments

An Open Letter to The Arsenal 1st Team

arsenal-1st-team-squad-20162017-1

Arsenal 1st Team
Arsenal Football Club
Highbury House
75 Drayton Park
LONDON N5 1BU

Dear Fellow Gooner,

I write to you as one minor member of the worldwide legion of Arsenal supporters whom you represent week-after-week on the football fields of England and Europe. You may be aware, according to the most recent research (2011), there were 113 million Arsenal fans worldwide, the fourth highest number for any football club on earth. Six years later those numbers could easily have doubled. In other words you are carrying the hopes and dreams of nearly 200 million people worldwide. I am certain you would agree it is an awesome responsibility.

But this letter is not to burden you with the weight of fan expectation. We know there is a minority who expect you will win every match, day-in, day-out. The majority of us know such results are unrealistic. While you may try to win every game, we know that Arsenal Football Club is competing against wealthier clubs with just as many if not more fantastic players, whom they can acquire by paying much larger transfer fees and wages.  There are times when results go against us because our best players are unavailable due to injury. Sometimes, as in the real world, there are days when despite doing your best as a professional, events do not favor the team, whether due to human error on our part or by the officials. As the boss correctly says, (and he is hardly ever wrong) it takes enormous “mental strength” to consistently compete at the top-level as every Arsenal 1st team has done for the past 20 years.

So now that we are midway the 2016-17 season, what are the realistic expectations of you the 1st team? Arsenal is lying in 5th place in the league, 8 points behind the leader, Chelsea, who just completed a 13-game win streak. In the last 20 years of the premier league, no team with a 13-game streak has failed to win the title. In the last 13 years of the premier league, the league winner has either been 1st or 2nd at the half-way point. Surely Arsenal stands no chance?

But records were meant to be broken. In 2013-14, Liverpool was the first team to go on an 11-game unbeaten streak and fail to win the title. Last year, Leicester was the first team in the history of the English top-flight to go from last place to being champions in 13 months. In January 2016 BREXIT was dead and buried in the polls, so was Donald Trump months later.  In one year, contrary to conventional thinking, despite the “expert” pundits in the mainstream media , the army of negative nellies on twitter and social media,  the underdog made the impossible possible.

Why can’t this Arsenal 1st Team make history? It is not as if it wasn’t done before. In the history of the premier league Arsenal is the only club who have come from as far back as 6th place midway the season to grab title and win the FA cup as well, Arsene Wenger’s first ever double. According to this source it was a season:

“…one which few would have dared dream about, particularly during the dark months of November and December when a midseason slump led to rumours of dressing room disharmony and a seemingly unbridgeable gap to league leaders Manchester United.”

Haven’t you the 1st Team have mid-season slump last December with back-to-back losses to Everton and Manchester City followed by a draw with Bournemouth?

That 97/98 Arsenal team did not recover their mojo until February 1998 after the legendary in-house meeting. According to Arseweb:

“…. the team and Wenger had a “thrash it out” meeting during which Adams demanded that the defence receive more protection from the midfield. The response from the central midfield pairing of Vieira and Petit was magnificent, and aided by better on and off field communication due to the Frenchmen’s improving English, Arsenal embarked on an unbeaten run which would eventually carry them all the way to the league title.”  

This 1st team already had a 14-game unbeaten run between August and November. Surely if the weaknesses evident at Bournemouth and Preston North End , are “thrashed-out”, couldn’t this team sustain another run and put the current league leaders under serious pressure?

As we lesser mortals, who have no hope of ever being professional footballers, can attest, it is easy to wallow in doubt and fear, after a string of bad results. Frankly for this Arsenal 1st team, there is no reason to be fearful. This is the deepest and best squad the professor has put together since the barren years while paying for the new stadium. According to transfermkt over the past five years AFC has spent £210.70m to gradually improve the squad.

You the Arsenal 1st Team may be missing Santi Cazorla, the technical leader, but in return you can welcome Aaron Ramsey who is the beating heart of the British core, the player who Arsene Wenger most trust to do what is necessary for the team to win. In 97-98, midway the season the club lost to suspension, the magical Dennis Berkgamp, and after his return took a while to find its groove. Similarly this 1st team is about to welcome back from illness a future midfield legend by way of Mesut Özil, a player who earlier this week demonstrated in no uncertain fashion his commitment to Arsenal and Arsene Wenger. In 97/98, it was not because the players in the squad were the best in the premier league; Alex Manninger was certainly not. Seemingly more critical, as one looks back, they had the commitment and mental strength.

Will you, the Arsenal 1st team, seize the spirit of 97-98 and make the impossible possible. To paraphrase the words of the great bard, Shakespeare:

Once more unto the breach, dear friends, once more;
Or close the wall up with our Gooner dead.
In peace there’s nothing so becomes a man
As modest stillness and humility:
But when the blast of war blows in our ears,
Then imitate the action of the tiger;
Stiffen the sinews, summon up the blood,
Disguise fair nature with hard-favour’d rage;
Then lend the eye a terrible aspect;

Respectfully yours,

@Shotta_Gooner, The Contrarian

39 Comments

No Arsene – No Ozil – No Party

880277151-frank_gallagher___shameless_by_bezerkartwerk-d6kpv0xI wonder if Arsene Wenger is between little bit rock and a hard place?

Re-signing for two years is unlikely to cut it with Ozil – or potential new signings. A two year extension could potentially have a paralysing effect on our short-term team-building activities.

But the man himself may not want more than two years.

He may have doubts regarding fan reception to the news of an extended extension. He may be weary of the near existential crisis that occurs everytime we drop a point or three.

The toxicity of a small minority can not be ignored; what they lack in size or credibility in the eyes of most, they more than make up for with noise – not least in ways  highlighted in this comment from Eddy in the comments section from yesterday’s blog:

The thing is, can we really blame the media, journos and pundits etc, when a whole host of people who claim to love Arsenal are running blogs and twitter accounts dedicated to attacking all things Arsenal, everything from the major shareholders, the board, the manager, the coaches, the scouts, the fitness and medical people, the players, even our youth players, for God’s sake even our ladies team, everything the club does is dismissed at best and attacked at worst.  These people have put their 15 minutes of fame ahead of the thing they claim to love.

The fact [is] complete and utter scumbags can get fame by being caricature fans on AFTV, and be made legit by the main stream media who interview them, or reprint their views in major publications.

Some have been very smart about it, they spotted that one of the biggest and most successful Arsenal sites for years was Arsenal News Review (ANR), and it’s run by a Chelsea fan, who [has] seen by the success of his book about Arsene Wenger, that Arsenal fans were there to be exploited and make him money, and like Pyles Malmer, the others have seen ways to make money out of it. Some,  like AFTV and some blogs, have been making money from sponsorship and the clicks.  Others have got jobs with the bigger media outlets. bLeGrove is the bench mark for how negativity sells, and many Arsenal blogs abandoned their even-handed outlook and went negative to try and get a piece of it, and others appeared on the scene trying to get their bit too. We even have one blog that only ever publishes a new article after a bad result, they do not have a single word to say when we play well and have a good win.

And let’s not forget the likes of the AST (when was the last time they had a good word to say about the club) and other so called supporters’ groups that have been set up with the sole purpose of attacking the club – BSM are one that springs to mind.

Not to mention the outfit that use a bit of Twitter fame to sell Arsenal related goods,
whilst not forgetting that RedAction, a group that was set up to improve support, abandoned any semblance of credibility when they actually supported the A4 protest last season.

So can we blame the media for its agenda against Arsenal?”

The idiot minority have made themselves the story in the eyes of an entirely mercenary and opportunistic media. That alone could be incredibly draining for anyone, even if they are allowed – even encouraged – to ignore it.

The delays to Ozil’s contract are a concern and Arsene’s apparent indecision is surprising in as far as he’s the last person who would allow the club to be damaged by his own actions.

The delays to Ozil’s contract may not just be about whether Arsene re-signs.

It could also be about who follows Arsene if he does not.

Equally, it could all be sorted one week after the end of the season.

But short of winning the PL or the CL, would Arsene himself feel the team had done enough to justify a 3+ years contract extension?

The WOB’s noisy little campaign has the potential to scyth down the club’s short and medium-term prospects with a devastating example of the Law of Unintended Consequences.

Yes, we’ve been made aware of Ozil’s doubts.

But how many others like Ozil are waiting on current outcomes. How many would happily jump ship to escape one of the PL’s most odious fanbases. Sure, it’s a minority of trolls making a racket but the failure of the majority of fans to effectively shout them down suggests complicity.

What was that saying about all it takes for evil to prevail …?

And how many players at one time or another have been the subject of vile abuse from ‘supporters? It’s by no means a short list, is it?

I’d suggest these are perilous moments for the club and we may now be at an ominous fork in the road. I’d also suggest we – the fans and the club – have much more to lose than Mr Wenger.

Not least because, as I believe someone may have already pointed out.

No Arsene, no party.

Stolen from Arsenal Andrew by lazy old me – George.

94 Comments

Arsenal: Preston Floored By Larry’s Sword

c0wiijaxuaaglbhGood morning Positive Arsenalists.

Another grey morning over Norfolk but a familiar sensation of satisfaction as an Arsenal fan still lingers after last night’s game in the North West.

Yes, yes I know we were pretty dire in the first half. The home side rushed into us with great energy and not a little skill at times and made us look a bit little silly. On several occasions they opened up our defence in a manner only PSG had done previously this season. When we did have the ball some of our passing and efforts to use possession constructively were discomforting to watch, so inept was the outcome. I see even Arsene said the only positive was that it was only 1-0 as the players went down the half time tunnel. He knows, you know.

I have no real understanding of what was going on in our players’ heads during the opening 45. I can only point to the lack of experience of Rambo, Xhaka, Mustafi and Gabby + the youngster AMN, in actually playing together before, that might explain the spaces and gaps that Preston were allowed. Why we seemed unable to hit an accurate 5 yard pass I don’t know, but let us not dwell too deeply. One interesting point was that in spite of the difficulties we had there was no rowing between the players, everyone just got on with the game. No Sanchez=no scrapping (perhaps) !

HOWEVER whatever the reason for that collective early confusion, after the break we turned out as a team transformed. I have no idea if the manager stamped his foot, or Steve Bould identified and corrected the tactical defensive mistakes that had disrupted us. Whatever switch had been flicked however after Mr Madeley blew his whistle Preston were hardly in the game again. Our defence became resolute, our passing text book Wengerball. After peppering our goal in the first half they created nothing in the second, with Ospina a spectator. The home side adopted the posture of a boxer pushed back around the ring by jabs, short straight punches and the occasional hook, backed into the corner and, eventually, floored. As with so many things in football however the timing of our equaliser, with Preston minds still not focussed on the pitch, was crucial. Lovely goal from Rambo, lovely set up by Iwobi.

For the remainder of the second half it was increasingly desperate defence by the home side and, to their credit, their defenders were well organised and flung their bodies in again and again to block shots, headers and deny our clever flicks and short passing. The home crowd roared them on, a replay at the Ems a tasty prize if they could just cling on. As our hosts energy gradually drained however, up stepped Larry. Ah Larry, a performer, a worker, a leader. A man who recently has been the decisive weapon, and yesterday he put the blade through Preston hearts.

It had to be, it was Fate.

Of our lads I thought Perez, Larry, the Ox and Iwobi stood out. Aaron’s goal was excellent and he stamped his authority on the second half, an intelligent game from the Welshman. AMN was getting some stick but I though he did fine, as did all the back 4 after their early discombobulation.

Of Preston? Their central defender Clarke and their winger and goalscorer Robinson were good. With the transfer window open you could see the national limelight probably inspired a few of them to greater heights.

No complaints about Madeley last night – 7/10.

The third round of the Cup safely negotiated and a lazyish Sunday in prospects with our fingers crossed in the hope of some embarrassment for Tottingham or Chels. It would be a big turn up if either gave up their Wembley ambitions but that is the magic of the Cup isn’t it – that little spark of hope?

Finally while I had a good day yesterday others may have enjoyed 3rd round day even more:

http://www.lep.co.uk/sport/football/preston-north-end/teenager-to-says-thanks-to-wenger-for-sickbed-message-1-8321949

Lovely story, enjoy your Sunday.

(opening photo by @rebeccaherber44 – good innit?)

188 Comments

Arsenal Versus Preston North End: The Decider

H and SV

The Clash of the Invincibles takes place at historic Deepdale this evening. Quite rightly held back until the less significant fixtures have finished, this is the unquestioned jewel of the third round. A meeting of two venerable clubs, both famous for their contributions to the English game and both special for achieving unbeaten success at the pinnacle of the league.

Their fortunes have varied in recent years. Arsenal have become a byword for consistency. While other clubs have risen and fallen, enjoying their moments in the limelight, North London’s pre-eminent sporting establishment has been an ever present in the heady atmosphere of the upper echelons of top class football.

Preston North End have been quietly working their way back towards the top flight. Their rise from the fourth to second tier has been achieved in a steady fashion winning the promotion as champions twice in four years and finishing in the top five of League One (and Championship after it’s name change in 2004) no less than five times. This season they’re sitting in eleventh place having won ten, lost nine and drawn six.

What can we expect from them? Reading a Preston forum their fans seem to think Arsène is either arrogantly resting players or frightened his pampered softies will be scared of getting a kicking from the North End midfield. How refreshing such forward thinking attitudes are still prevalent in the modern game. In fairness most of them were bemoaning the absence of Sanchez, feeling deprived of witnessing at first hand one of the game’s true greats. This is odd when you consider that the real treat they are being deprived of is the sight of Mesut Özil. I suppose this just shows the influence the media have on the opinions of fans.

We are of course anything but arrogant and entirely aware of the possibilities for a lower division team to overturn the odds and beat one of the nations greatest ever clubs. Cup competitions thrive on such tales. Needless to say it is a romance we as Arsenal fans indulge in only when someone else is on the receiving end. My only concern is whether the side will gel. We all know the reserves are good enough individually but we saw against Southampton in the League cup how a patched together eleven can lack understanding and cohesion, but I don’t expect a repetition today.

I await the team sheet with interest. We know who won’t be there but the question is who steps up? Everyone assumes a Xhaka Ramsey central partnership but how about the forward line? I really want to see more of Lucas Perez but he is little bit ankle nobbled or something. I hope it isn’t serious and he gets to play – ideally alongside Olivier Giroud.

While it’s true that Giroud almost single handedly dragged us back into contention on Tuesday and could have taken a twenty minute naked lap of honour as far as I’m concerned so herculean were his efforts, it was his partnership with Perez that most caught the eye.

It was almost an old fashioned forward pairing, with the big guy winning the ball and the smaller bloke running off him. That is the kind of set up even footballing illiterates like me can understand. Of course the skill set of our number twelve is way in advance of the old big bruising centre forwards who used mainly to provide the knock downs on which their trickster little cohorts would feed. However I don’t want to get too side tracked into talking about players as I usually end up wasting words on guys who then don’t even make the bench.

For romantics the FA Cup got off to the worst possible start yesterday with the oil rich money burners flattening plucky little West Ham like a steam roller taking on a bag of Maltesers. It was clear from the team sheet that Man City were not going to mess about and I wasn’t surprised Guardiola took the tie so seriously – even fielding a proper keeper for a change.

With so many so called top managers and so many of the world’s best players crammed into the Premier league and with all the rabid, out of control fan bases demanding the league title as a minimum price for their support, the FA Cup has taken on ever greater significance. As long as only one team can finish first the scrabble to get the second most important crown in English football becomes increasingly frantic. I don’t anticipate the giant killings of yore, the tournament is simply too important to the top clubs to risk making a bollocks of their first round.

This just means getting to Wembley will be that little bit harder for Arsenal this season, but the journey will be all the more enjoyable for it. I hope we start today with an emphatic victory to make the pundits weep but most of all I just want us to win without any more injuries. Please.

If you’re making your way to the Clash of the Invincibles I wish you a safe journey. I’ll be schooling my nephew in the significance of his first ever FA Cup tie, safe and warm by the radiator. And for those Preston fans mourning the absence of a certain sulky Chilean – chin up – this may actually be the day you get to tell your grandchildren about. The day you saw Alex Iwobi in the flesh.

95 Comments

Arsenal Mid-Term: The Good, The Bad and The Ugly

goodbadugly_147pyxurz

On the eve of this, my mid-season review of AFC’s performance in the Premier League, the prevailing mood in the media and blogsphere is of pessimism and despair.  Arsenal had dramatically snatched a draw after falling behind 0-3 down to Bournemouth. Instead of joy and optimism that in 20 minutes the club had turned around a seemingly hopeless situation to salvage a point, the main theme was the Gunners was out of the title race as Chelsea look certain to open a 11 point lead.

After retrieving a three-goal deficit, it’s usual for some euphoria but that’s noticeable by its absence this morning. Anyone who had lingering hopes of the title has surely had them dispelled by now? It’s a draw which feels like a defeat or draw when so often a comeback of that magnitude feels like a victory.   ACLF

All in all a bad night for Arsenal, and a bad night for Arsene Wenger who, despite having the biggest, deepest squad he’s had in years, sees yet another season unfolding in pretty familiar fashion. The position we’re in is the same, the way we drop points is the same, the failings are consistent. Arseblog

RIP Arsenal’s season. – 7amkickoff

Nothing sums up Wenger more perfectly than the game last night. All the chickens came home to roost as we tapped out of the title race and handed the momentum to proper managers.le-grove

Based on Chelsea’s subsequent loss to Spurs this Wednesday evening, I can confidently predict that there will be a dramatic u-turn in the in the tone of these blogs by Thursday. Safe to say the euphoria of Chelsea failing to break Arsenal’s record of 14 straight PL wins will convince most of these fine bloggers that the 8 point gap is no longer insurmountable. Within 24-hours an impregnable Chelsea lead on Wednesday morning will become surpass able on Thursday.

Once again readers of PA will get a perfect lesson in how the majority, not all, of Arsenal bloggers, act in a fashion similar to the mainstream media, preying on the emotions of the Arsenal fans by using a short term setback to promote fear that Arsenal and Arsene Wenger have failed in their title bid. Mark you, it still early January with practically half a season to go. Most importantly, these conclusions are being drawn without presenting the unbiased data to support their point of view.

As part of my mission to educate myself and inform my readers about the importance of the unbiased data in making sense of football (as well as of politics and economics), in my very first blog at the start of this season, based on the most recent 8 years of PL data, I predicted the following 2016/17 league positions:

My Prediction Club Time Series Projection
1st Man United 2.88
2nd Man City 3.38
3rd Arsenal 3.38
4th Chelsea 3.63
5th Tottenham 5:00
6th Liverpool 5.75

Just a reminder, for comparison’s sake, the BBC pundits made the following forecast:

Prediction Club
1st Man City
2nd Man United
3rd Chelsea
4th Arsenal
5th Tottenham
6th Liverpool
7th Leicester

The ESPN experts were singing from the same hymn book:

Prediction Club
1st Man City
2nd Man United
3rd Chelsea
4th Arsenal
5th Tottenham
6th Liverpool

After exactly 19 games the Premier League table top-6 reads as follows:

Clubs W D L F A GD Points
Chelsea 16 1 2 42 13 29 49
Liverpool 13 4 2 46 21 25 43
Arsenal 12 4 3 41 19 22 40
Tottenham Hotspur 11 6 2 37 14 23 39
Manchester City 12 3 4 39 21 18 39
Manchester United 10 6 3 29 19 10 36
Leicester City* 5 5 9 24 31 -7 20
Crystal Palace* 4 4 11 29 35 -6 16

Leicester City and Crystal Palace listed for illustrative purposes only.

Contrary to all prior projections Chelsea and Liverpool are sitting atop the table in 1st and 2nd positions respectively. In contrast, Manchester City,  the pundits most favored team because of their spending power and brand new celebrity manager, is sitting 5th instead of  their projected 1st. Below them in 6th is United, the second most favored team of both BBC and ESPN journos. Yours truly is similarly off the pace as my prediction was for United and City to be 1st and 2nd respectively. Where I differ from the mainstream pundits is my minimum expectation of Arsenal coming 3rd. Most of the so-called experts have Arsenal at 4th.

Even though half-way through the season and the short-term results may look bleak, I stand by my earlier prediction based on the 20 year history of Arsene Wenger as manager:

  • Arsenal has finished an average of 3rd; no other club except Manchester United has a better average.

  • No other team has a better absolute deviation from the mean than Arsenal at 0.985, meaning that on the average the club’s position will deviate by less than 1. United is the next best at 1.28.

  • All other big -6 team have in 20 years finished lower than Arsenal; City fell away to as low as 47th, way down into the 3rd

  • Arsenal has never finished less than 4th.

  • Arsenal has never finished below Tottenham.

By comparing the performance of each top-6 club midseason this year to 2015-16, it is evident  Arsenal remains the most consistent despite the absence since last October, due to injury, of  arguably its most important player, Santi Cazorla. I have provided four years of data to demonstrate that Arsenal averages over 2.09 points per game (ppg) with Santi playing in comparison to a team average of 1.92 ppg. Seven games with Santi this season yielded a ppg of 2.7, nine games without Santi up to early December and the ppg dropped to 1.3, a fall of more than 50%.

Percentage Change in Key Performance Data Mid Season 2016 vs 2015

Clubs W D L F A GD Points
Chelsea 220% -80% -78% 83% -55% 583% 145%
Liverpool 63% -33% -60% 109% -5% n/a 43%
Arsenal 0 33% -25% 24% 6% 47% 3%
Tottenham Hotspur 18% -33% 0% 11% -7% 22% 10%
Manchester City 8% 0% -25% 5% 5% 6% 8%
Manchester United 25% 0% -40% 32% 19% 67% 20%
Leicester City* -55% -17% 350% -35% 24% -158% -49%
Crystal Palace* -56% 0% 83% 26% 119% -186% -48%

Leicester City and Crystal Palace listed for illustrative purposes only.

Main takeaways from the table on a club by club basis:

Chelsea:

  1. Have made dramatic changes in all the key data categories resulting in a 145% improvement in their points haul.
  2. Have significantly improved in their scoring with 83% more Goals For as well as in their defending with 55% less Goals Against, the net result being a fantastic 583% improvement in Goal Difference.
  3. The challenge for Chelsea is this sort of exponential improvement is almost statistically impossible to sustain. The law of diminishing returns begin to set in after an optimal level has been reached. Furthermore, it is inevitable that over time competing teams will find ways to narrow the differences that have given Chelsea such a dramatic superiority in recent months.
  4. Long winning streaks are correlated with title-winning teams as evident from the data previously presented of Arsenal’s winning campaigns. There is however one major exception, i.e. Liverpool in 2014-15 who had an 11-game unbeaten run but failed to win the title after 2 grievous losses in the last month of the campaign.

Liverpool

  1. Apart from a 109% improvement in Goals For, their improvements in the various categories have been relatively less dramatic than Chelsea.
  2. A 43% year-on-year improvement in Points, while two-thirds less than Chelsea, is still significant. Can this level be sustained statistically?

Arsenal

  1. Only club whose points haul has remained substantially the same, a mere 3% improvement.
  2. Measureable improvements have been made in both Goals For and Goals Against. As a result goal difference has improved by 45%, the second highest of the clubs.
  3. Consistent marginal improvements are more sustainable over time in any physical endeavor. It is well known that Arsenal title challenges have in recent years been shot by mid-season injuries to key players. Should such injuries repeat themselves Arsenal will be struggle to earn more Wins and less Draws/Losses to sustain a serious title challenge.

As the table above illustrates consistency is not easy to sustain in the football, at least not in the Premier League. One year ago Crystal Palace and manager Alan Pardew were the toast of the town. Instead of 5th in the League they now have 48% less in points, fighting relegation at 17th place with Pardew sacked. Similarly, Leicester City, the defending champions were the miracle club, the so-called proof that a non-fashionable club can have sustained success amongst the big boys. Today they are in 16th position, recording a significant decline in all the data categories with 49% less points than last year. And we are told Claudio Ranieri is a genius.

Wenger’s consistency is easily disparaged; bloggers are quick to write him off at the first setback. The recent draw at Bournemouth was evidently due to having to play a team with barely 48-hours recuperation time from a prior demanding physical engagement, at least 24 hours less than the optimum time according to the scientific studies, a fact none of the bloggers quoted above gave any attention to.

It bears repeating. Woe to the pundits and bloggers who write-off Arsene Wenger despite 20 years of unbiased data showing a remarkable consistency by him as manager of the football club.

75 Comments

Arsenal : Verve and Vim at the Vitality

toddler-tantrums

Sawatdii Postitive Arsenal fans,

Well that was quite an evening wasn’t it ? The ffffuuuullll range of fan experience over exactly 96 minutes, from mild discomfort, to eye rolling pain, abject horror, to fluttering but faint hope, and capped by monstrous relief at a finale in which we gained a point and retrieved our reputation as a tough team to beat. Exhausting.

Of the game itself I find myself struggling to order my thoughts even twelve hours later. In spite of what I have heard from AW we actually started the game, for the opening five minutes, really well and pinged the ball about in the Cherries’ half with them barely able to touch it.

Thereafter, and not surprisingly with the home side so willing to run and fight for the ball, the pendulum swung to even the contest, with possession shared with the home side and both teams on the front foot. It was a very fast game in the sense that players had very little time to dwell on the ball and both sides moved it quickly from end to end.

Then came the Bournemouth opener ! Not exactly out of the blue but the manner in which Hector was undone was slightly embarrassing, most uncharacteristic for the player. Whether he was a) tired b) unwell/unfit or c) he, Mustafi and Ramsey were on totally different pages of the defensive playbook at the time or d) a combination of a)+b)+c) I don’t know. Nice finish by Daniels nevertheless.

Like me I am sure you thought “no bother”, a goal down, a mere blip on the road to final victory. You could sense however we were a little stunned by the setback. Players looking a one another, shouting, shrugging, pointing. Not a good picture as the home crowd roared their approval of our obvious discomfort.

Then we had a bit of a second “cock-up”, to use the technical sporting term, with an attack broken down, Le Coq’s professional foul ignored/waived on by Oliver and Xhaka clumping Fraser. The evening took on a darker hue. I pondered whether my singling out of Granit and Bellerin for their good contribution against Palace had cursed them this evening ! Its all about me – dyasee!

After that second goal the  dissent among Arsenal players rose to fever pitch, Sanchez was shouting at everyone, Ramsey shouted at Alexis, Larry was waving like a windmill in frustration, everyone was shouting at Iwobi, Mustafi was shouting at Hector, Hector was sheepish and staring off into space et cetera. This was not “pashun” this was just bloody unprofessional.

The outcome of this abominable mass toddler tantrum was that for the remainder of the first half we played very little football, passes went astray, our use of the dead ball was excruciating and we looked at no time like testing Boruc with an actual “shot” or a “header”.

The THIRD GOAL for the home side was an event of such exquisite torture I have no words to describe it – I shall move on.

And yet the third goal, finally, managed raise something in us. Was it pride ? Suddenly the spaces we could play in got a little wider, the passes were clipped a little quicker to feet. The Ox’s suddenly seemed to have the measure of Fraser and Perez’s introduction gave out attach a sharpness in contrast to the earlier dull thud. Did our opponents foolishly switch off thinking the job done ? Did our opponents themselves run out of energy having torn into us throughout the contest ?

I dunno – From the 70th minute and that first goal however I was certain we would get something out of the game and so it proved. The petulance among the players was replaced by smooth passing and movement, that second goal from Perez was a superb strike. Arsenal football team were back inaction, not 11 individuals, each with his own agenda. And that man Larry ……… probably his scruffiest  goal in a long time but my goodness did it raise my spirits. The job was done, the point gathered. A draw snatched in unlikely circumstances against difficult opponents. Not exactly the result we wanted, and perhaps needed, but a lesson learned by the players.

I shall leave it there – enjoy your lengthy break until Proud Preston.

162 Comments

Arsenal Versus Bournemouth: Something Very Arsenal

Olivier-Giroud

I’ve tried to gain inspiration for today’s preview from the deluge of football which has swamped us around the turning of the year. Unfortunately as I don’t care about the other teams involved in these fixtures all I got for my troubles was a crick in the neck from trying to do other things while simultaneously keeping an eye on matches I wouldn’t normally condescend to acknowledge.

Of course it’s disingenuous to suggest that the results of our rivals have no impact on our season. The final league positions are decided by an holistic interweaving of results each affecting the others in a complex web of possibilities. That wasn’t why I watched Middlesbrough though. Not really. I watched them simply because Calum was playing and I’m intrigued to see if I can glean anything from his performances.

After Francis Coquelin’s inspired return from the barren wastes of the loan wilderness any Arsenal player currently honing their craft on alien pitches has that delicious potential to become an Emirates based game changer. The problem I have with watching an entire match just to enjoy the contribution of one player is the same as watching the Welsh international team. I’m simply not invested in the result nor the contest as a whole. One doesn’t enjoy a gourmet meal by lifting a single ingredient onto one’s fork and abstaining from the rest.

Not that ‘boro or Wales provided cordon bleu cookery, far from it, but I hope my point still stands. The gastronomic delight du jour in the Arsenal kitchen has been cooked up of course by our Gallic heartthrob. He has been promising a goal of such superlative defying elegant ostentation ever since he joined us. Older readers may remember February of twenty thirteen when I was moved to write these words:

“Out of absolutely nowhere and without bothering to so much as take a touch never mind think about a pass, Olivier Giroud, still some thirty yards from goal and near the touchline unleashed a terrifying dipping shot which would have snapped the Mordor keeper in half if it had hit him. OK so the shot missed the target by a fraction, Arsene got off the bench and signalled his displeasure, the commentators pointed out how well placed Ramsay was and we came home with a well earned point but no more.

But I was captivated by that moment. The audacity, the confidence, the technique. Name three other attributes you want more in your centre forward. Go on. Name them.

But of course the goals started to come. He opened his account against Coventry in the widdley diddley cup and gave us this fantastic quote “This goal has taken the pressure off me. It’s done, I have my first goal. But it has to be the start of a beautiful adventure.” And I started to love him just a little bit.

“But it has to be the start of a beautiful adventure.” Perfect. I’ve been accused of being a bit of a romantic where football is concerned and maybe that is true but like Larry I believe a player’s career and relationship with us should be just that. Wasn’t Thierry’s Arsenal career a beautiful adventure? How else would you describe it? I like that bit of poetry in Giroud’s make up. It complements his physical prowess rather neatly.”

What excited then me was the sense of adventure and invention which all great players have and which provides the moments we love and cherish, briefly lending the epithet ‘beautiful game’ a ring of truth. I think Giroud’s subsequent contribution to the side has vindicated my optimism. The blend of the sublime with an obvious physicality has been present in many of his goals and his vital assists.

His misfortune was to be born into an era dominated by over reaction and the promotion of idiocy which the internet has inadvertently spawned. Had he played in earlier times he’d have been rightly lauded for the player he has always been and not just for one moment of brilliance.

Today the players will need to find other attributes to compliment the skill and speed of their natural game. With an extremely ill timed flu bug working through the camp, injuries still robbing some players of match sharpness, others of any fitness at all, Elneny departing for international duty, and having played just the day before yesterday, stamina and determination will matter as much as fluency and improvisation.

Bournemouth have won and lost three each of their previous six games and are one of those sides I find difficult to predict. They don’t strike me as naturally suited to the suffocating defensive tactics beloved of many of our opponents nor quite good enough to go toe to toe in a straight footballing contest with us. But then, neither did Everton.

The Cherries’ best result was probably the four three over Liverpool who are enjoying their best form for a few years. There was also the six they stuck past Hull but then they’ve contrived to lose to Burnley, Sunderland, Stoke, and West Ham so pick the bones out of that lot. As I say, unpredictable, up and down; they are capable of flowing football and abject defending and their best hope will be our lack of fully fit players. They’ve had one day longer to recover since an away win at Swansea. Precious little you might say but when we’re talking of a four day period it is significant nonetheless.

I’ll settle for a win however achieved but I wouldn’t say no to another slice of scrumptious footballing cuisine from the man who stole my heart over four years ago. As I said back then “A man who should have taken a season to win me round had me in that one sparkling moment of near brilliance back in August. There’s just something very Arsenal about him.”

 

 

79 Comments

Arsenal – Gli scioperi scorpione*

olivier-giroud-769566

Good morning Positives,

Palace swept away with little difficulty yesterday and one of those relatively rare occasions when we just about controlled the game from first to last and collected the three points without ever really needing to get into flat-out, handbrake off mode. Palace were a sorry sight yesterday, with a look of the “Championship” about them.

The mainstream media this morning are noisily salivating over Larry’s goal, and so they should. Our Frenchman has never let his head drop once in what is now a long Arsenal career, 200+ appearances. Every game he is in the fight, from first minute to final whistle. The embodiment of POSITIVE Arsenal. After a half season in which he has spent more time on the bench than he would like it is massively to his credit that in the past two games he has scored decisive goals. He is receiving a little of the acclaim his unrelenting effort deserves. He seemed much more relaxed yesterday, much happier, smiling. It may purely be impression on my part but happy footballers tend to be better footballers. Clearly I do not like to put too much down to our chance pre-Christmas encounter on the Selfridges’ escalator but …. well ….. just co-incidence and all that.

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Elsewhere about the pitch Hector put in a mighty 90 minutes and one game the boy will get the two or three goals his incisive attacking and shooting deserves. I was pleased too with Granit Xhaka who, now four games as a starter, who seems more composed on the ball, tackles more cleanly, and more confident generally. I sense he has got his head around the Premier League fully now, in particular in how physical he can be and reading the referee. An attractive contribution from Lucas Perez too, commendably no nonsense as he flattened Zaha on one occasion. I would like to see more of the flinty Spaniard. And did we “miss” Ozil ? Not at all, although no doubt the German would have enjoyed his afternoon against Sam’s feeble fumblers.

On the topic of Zaha I thought referee Andre Marriner played a blinder by the way, totally neutralised the Palace winger whose increasingly desperate efforts to earn a free kick petered out to almost nothing. The Referees Union has your card marked, my son. Cease and desist. Give up the diving Wilfried, you will probably be a better player for it.

A short break now before the trip to Bournemouth and almost certainly a far more vigorous work out from the Cherries than we faced yesterday. Our opponents tomorrow night have the look of Premier League mid table solidity about them, a decent home form and the ability to batter the relegation sides on the road. Another professional performance required.

A short one from me today. Perhaps I am not in top gear !

Enjoy your Monday.

 

  • The scorpion strikes – a phrase for special occassions