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Arsenal Versus West Brom: Pardon My French

beauty beast

Tony Pulis. There I said it. I know George hates it when we use foul language on his blog. There are outlets which won’t promote Positively Arsenal if it employs such revolting epithets and we are all about the numbers here as you well know. The advertising revenue alone keeps us in swimming pools and pearls and we must not piss off our sponsors.

However there comes a time when difficult issues must be faced and the Pulis is one of those issues. It wasn’t always so. Back in his playing days he was part of the Bristol Rovers golden generation along with ‘Jockey’ Wilson, Devon White and Ian Holloway and I applauded like a Stoke fan every crunching tackle, every score settled.

Of course he blotted his copy book by going on to manage at Ashton Gate, a move which ensured he was despised by both the blue and red halves of the city. After a long and celebrated stint in the Potteries he has now wound up at West Bromwich Albion and thither the mighty Arsenal must travel today and secure a much needed three points.

You might recall I mentioned a young man of my acquaintance who travelled up to London town for the recent FA Cup tie. I saw him last night and asked about his Emirates experience and his face split into a huge grin as he recalled a wonderful day out. He showed me his latest Arsenal shirt and then we got down to the nitty gritty. ‘How was the match?’ I enquired. His answer, refreshing in its honesty, neatly summed up much of our season, ‘We were rubbish in the first half’ he replied ‘but then we were great and won five nil’.

Not so complicated this football lark, is it?

The problem we often experience when anticipating a match is not knowing which version of Arsène Wenger’s project will show up on the day. The tentative, nervous, pass it about at the back under ever increasing pressure until they give up and let the keeper hoof it forward edition, or the free flowing, inventive, confident, improvisational theatre of full blooded Wengerball. Sometimes we even get both in the same game.

People say it’s infuriating, I see it as an intriguing example of the huge role mental confidence and relaxation plays at the highest level in any sport. Andy Murray gave an interview where he said that losing in the Wimbledon final to Federer was the ultimate piece in his jigsaw to becoming a top player. Defeat in the game he’d always seen as the pinnacle of potential achievement meant he’d experienced the worst. With that out of the way there was nothing left to fear, and he could play with a freedom from which he’d previously been inhibited. He wasn’t a better or worse player he just got his head right.

You could see in Aaron’s finish last weekend how important it was for him to find the net. A couple of chances had gone awry, the kind of chances he was dispatching with aplomb in his best season for us, and even though his goal was essentially a tap in he really needed it and whacked the ball into the net with a cathartic flourish. Will it open the floodgates? Time will tell.

Aaron, like Alex Oxlade-Chamberlain cannot be judged on this or recent seasons because both players are endlessly coming back from injuries. That or just about to get injured. It has been a frustrating time for them and I’m sure we all wish them a long sustained spell of good health and a proper chance to show what they are capable of.

Let’s hope Pulis and his boys don’t set out to further the injury woes of any of our players. It would be nice to see a sporting contest. The casual observer might deduce from our recent results that Arsenal is there for the taking, and this could, I suppose encourage in West Brom an adventurous spirit. I’d welcome this as the old attritional warfare against deep set defensive tactics is never easy on the eye. In any sport you cannot attack without creating vulnerabilities in defence so it might open the game up were they to sense blood.

I don’t actually believe Mr P will make the mistake of taking our results at face value. There has been some wonderful football among the dross and he will know that on our day we can demolish any side. The question he’ll be asking is very similar to the one I posed earlier. Which Arsenal side will show up at the Hawthorns today? Don’t be surprised if it’s a mix of both. To achieve one of the three hallowed places beneath champions elect Chelsea will call for some determined hard work as much as for fast moving, eye catching football. I’ll take a one nil win and some backs to the wall defending if it sets us on the right track for the run in. Of course I have the advantage of not travelling all the way to B71 and forking out for match tickets so I can be a little more relaxed about the nature of the performance.

If you are going I hope you enjoy a sizzling treat of speedy, confident Arsenal at its best and a result to match. If like me you will be at work from this morning right through to tomorrow lunchtime then I hope you avoid hearing the score and somehow navigate to the match on Arsenal Player without their giving the game away. They love to do that to us. Pages of headlines telling what happened before actually arriving at the match highlights and even then the video itself often displays a still clip from late in the game with the score clearly visible next to the time. It grinds my gears I don’t mind telling you.

See? Who says we’re afraid to criticise the club?

 

224 Comments

Arsenal: When Sir Chips Told The Mainstream Media To “Eff Off”

Eff you

After losing 5:1 to Bayern the English media have done everything to downplay the quality of Arsenal’s performance up to the 55th minute, ignore the diabolical refereeing (Wenger described it as “unexplainable and scandalous“) and to ratchet up the hysteria for Arsene to be fired prior to renewal or conclusion of his contract.

Leading the charge of the English media is one James Olley, Chief Football Correspondent of the Evening Standard. Before PSG was screwed over by the same UEFA referees he was a man filled with certitude.

“Arsenal were simply not good enough to compete at the highest level and after more than £85million investment in a squad Wenger had huge faith in, it is a damning indictment of the manager and this group of players (My emphasis).”

Despite the Standard being a rag that is given away to evening commuters, Mr Olley’s views are of such import that the Sage of Dublin made him his guest of honor on his Friday podcast to spew his diatribe to his army of followers. So let us dissect Olley’s views.

Did the manager ever have any illusions about the gap in quality between his club and Bayern? Unlike Mr Olley’s bill of indictment, the manager in his pre-game presser did not have great “faith” in his team’s chances:

“Let’s not fool ourselves, we have a one or two-percent chance. But you never know. That’s why we have to focus on the quality of our performance and our commitment.”

But should Gooners or neutrals be expecting superiority over Bayern because Arsenal invested £85million in the squad last summer? Apparently Olley believes after one summer of big spending Arsenal should be beating one of the traditional powerhouses of Europe (2-times Champion League and 3-times European Cup winners) and 26-times Bundesliga winner. If one merely focused on the headline statistic, i.e. market value of both squads; £472.73m  for Bayern vs £418.20m for Arsenal (a 13% difference), and this is before making any adjustment to account  for the more inflated English market, one would think it is a small gap.

Don’t expect Mr. Olley and his interlocutor, the Sage of Dublin, to dig down into the data as this would expose the shallowness of their claim that Wenger is all to blame for Arsenal’s defeat. Unlike them, we at Positively Arsenal demand data and facts to form a conclusion rather than act hysterically and emotionally.

A deeper analysis of the market value of the players representing both teams show a £20 million edge to Bayern, according to transfermarkt.co.uk Again it must be emphasized that England suffers from significantly greater inflation than Germany where Bayern can pick up a player with more or less the same qualities as one in the English market at a lesser transfer fee. This applies to wages as well.

ARSENAL
David Ospina £5.95m
Laurent Koscielny £18.70m
Shkodran Mustafi £25.50m
Nacho Monreal £12.75m
Héctor Bellerín £21.25m
Alex Oxlade-Chamberlain £17.00m
Aaron Ramsey £29.75m
Francis Coquelin £12.75m
Granit Xhaka £29.75m
Olivier Giroud £21.25m
Mesut Özil £42.50m
Alexis Sánchez £55.25m
Lucas Pérez £14.45m
Theo Walcott £18.70m
Total Market Value £325.55m

V.S.

BAYERN
Manuel Neuer £38.25m
Mats Hummels £32.30m
Javi Martínez £21.25m
David Alaba £34.00m
Rafinha £4.25m
Thiago Alcántara £25.50m
Joshua Kimmich £21.25m
Arturo Vidal £31.45m
Xabi Alonso £2.98m
Robert Lewandowski £68.00m
Franck Ribéry £6.80m
Renato Sanches £25.50m
Arjen Robben £8.50m
Douglas Costa £25.50m
Total Market Value £345.53M

The fact that the financial disparity, when 11 v 11, was only 6% goes somewhere in explaining why Arsenal was competitive for the first 55 minutes. But once the officials decided to tilt the tables in Bayern’s favor by not only granting a penalty for Lewandowski’s appalling imitation of Jamie Vardy’s favorite diving technique, but going further by sending off Arsenal’s best defender (Koscielny), the disparity became a gulf. Approximately £20 million in talent was sent to the showers.

By the way: I am no great fan of transfermarkt’s valuation as a source of unbiased data but it certainly goes somewhere in exposing the shallowness of Olley’s selective use of transfer spending to support a predetermined point of view. As usual, I publish my data so readers can do their own analysis and agree/disagree with my conclusions. If time allowed I would have researched age,  years as a professional, performance rating (Squawka), etc., to assess the qualitative difference between both starting XIs.

Back to Mr. Olley’s campaign to discredit Mr. Wenger. One day after Bayern his headline was Arsene Wenger cannot be allowed to decide his destiny – he is holding Arsenal back:

“It is difficult to imagine how bad things have to get at Arsenal before the offer of a two-year contract extension to Arsene Wenger is withdrawn.”

Apparently this provocative headline earned him the invitation to do that Arsenal podcast. Birds of a feather certainly flock together.

It took Sir Chips Keswick, chairman of the board, to put Olley and his cohorts in their place by letting them know who decides Arsene’s and Arsenal’s destiny. He issued an official statement on Thursday, March 9th which stated:

 “Arsene has a contract until the end of the season. Any decisions will be made by us mutually and communicated at the right time in the right way.”

None of that dreaded statement of confidence, that platitudinous public relation puffery used by Board chairmen to assuage the media and incredulous fans to insulate themselves from criticism while they plot their options. It was a simple statement of fact; a big, polite “eff off”.

Olley was not dissuaded. During the Lincoln game, like so many in the English media, via a series of tweets, one could sense how desperate he was to have an upset and his ensuing disappointment.

In his post game report Olley came to the remarkable conclusion that a 5:0 trashing was underwhelming.

“The performance was underwhelming as Lincoln held their own in a fearless and well-organised display but Wenger got the result he desperately needed to avoid further discontent.”

My friends, this is the state of the English mainstream media and its profitable footballing division; a state of rank bias and mendacity. And colluding with them are bloggers and podcasters who pursue ambitions completely divorced from the hard facts and reality that affect the club they claim to support. Rather than trying to educate and inform the fans they are in it to promote hysteria and emotionalism. What a shame!

22 Comments

Arsenal: the lightness of the Cup

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Good morning Positives,

An FA 6th round tie was always, and probably will always, be a special fixture. Yesterday gave us a ‘classic’ Cup football confrontation, the mighty Arsenal, though slightly bruised after recent events, against the resolute, full-of-heart underdog of an opponent.

I was pleased to see Arsene set out a strong starting line up and bench. I say that not because I doubt that Rob Holding, Ospina or AMN would have failed achieve the same or perhaps even a better final result against Lincoln. It was a tie we were always expected to win, and would have done so whoever played after all. No, it was good to see that for once all our big guns had an opportunity to play together for 90 minutes in a game that allowed them to enjoy their football, to pass, dribble, shoot and use their craft. Above all, for the first time this year, we scored goals together. It was five, we know that it could have been ten or more as the game lapsed into attack v defence after half time.

I do not know about you, and the kind of jobs you do and the challenges you overcome to earn a daily crust, but occasionally I really enjoy dealing with a project that is straightforward, predictable, easy. The simplicity reminds me of what is important in what I do, and reminds me what is just pointless  background noise. It helps me re-set the compass. And so I felt it was for our players yesterday, who from where I was standing at least seemed to “ENJOY” the game. That most fans stayed on after the game to clap our own and the Lincoln players I’d say that it was a good evening. A football match as entertainment – who would have thought it ?

I make no pretence of having seen enough of the game to pick a man of the match. I must however give a more general tip my hat to Shkodran Mustafi who over recent games, particularly when he has found himself fighting a lone centre back battle, has performed valiantly.

If any reader thinks in emphasising our superiority I am being harsh or dismissive of our East of England opponents, I am not. Every man of them played to the very limit of his ability and energy. At 3-0, 4-0 they dashed about the pitch to try and press us with a ferocity that Her Klopp would have been proud off, their pink clad keeper flung out his limbs in all directions as he faced the gallery of red and white marksmen queuing to take their turn. In the first half their tenacity and organisation served them well, and for all the sneering “but they are non-League” commentary from the punditistas Lincoln held us at arm’s length better and held out for a damn sight longer than Bayern Munich had managed on Tuesday. A word of praise for their winger Nathan Arnold. Not often you see Kosc left on his arse and Arnold’s finish required the very best from Cech to deny the visitors. Their fans went home delighted, a day they will never forget.

So I think a satisfactory afternoon, enjoyable for Arsenal players, the manager and Arsenal fans (well the sane ones anyway). Clearly there are no great tactical or strategic lessons to be learned in one off Cup games. I hope however that it reminds the players why they do the job, that in a game mired in money, in the media blizzard, in the machinations of agents and boardrooms that they can still revel in their skills, their fitness and movement. Taste that Cup glory, just for the evening.

Two more 6th round ties to go and I am sure you will be with me in wishing the Lions all the best for their game at the Lane.

Enjoy Sunday.

112 Comments

Arsenal Versus Lincoln: Waiting For The Great Leap Forward

great leap

Finding myself on my uppers and trying to claw my way out of a protracted period of poor health, I’ve taken to earning a few quid by going out to work. A wildly radical idea which, like Arsenal’s season, has yielded mixed results.

Lately I’ve been working for an organisation which provides support for adults with disabilities and learning difficulties. It is an area of employment which offers wildly varying emotional rewards and extraordinarily poor financial ones. No one employed there is in it to get rich but there are some highly motivated and above all decent people both giving and receiving support. As you can readily imagine in such exalted company I stand out like a blind cobbler’s thumb.

One of the people I’ve spent some time with is an Arsenal supporter and other than that I shall respect his privacy and tell you nothing of his circumstances. I can tell you he has been in a ferment this past week because today he’s travelling up from the West Country to the Big Smoke in order to watch his favourite team play in the FA Cup. Yes it would have been cool to have seen that particular shift pop up on my rota, no it did not.

What is wonderfully refreshing about being around this particular Arsenal supporter is his undaunted passion for the game. Regardless of the results and the negative commentary he listens to from the pundits he always seems happy to be a fan. What he singularly fails to do, and this really sets him apart from you and I, is to follow the team online.

What a joy to be around someone who doesn’t indulge their disappointment beyond a quick conversation with me or one of the other staff members but instead gets on with looking forward to the next game. It has been an invigorating, affirming and wholly positive experience. It of course throws into sharp contrast the verbal war zone of Twitter and the poisoned pond of the comments beneath the variously negative or sarcastic Arsenal blogs. I trust he will be allowed to enjoy his match day experience without the ridiculous, ruinous masochism of the disenchanted infecting the atmosphere. A fun filled carnival of football followers or a malignant miasma – only his fellow fans can decide.

Personally I shan’t be watching as I have landed a photography job at a gig being organised to celebrate the birthday of a well known local musician. Should be a good blend of light hearted portraits and band shots, not to mention every photographer’s nightmare; capturing the ‘fun’ of a party in a darkened hall. Moving subjects, poor lighting. Say no more.

Those of you who will be watching the game ought to be in for a treat. If the wonderful football we saw before the plug was pulled on Tuesday evening is anything to go by then Lincoln City are in for a torrid time. At stake, a semi final in our only remaining cup competition. Having won this venerable trophy in two of the last three years we all know what a wonderful end to the season such a prize can provide.

It is a simple and obvious fact that from now until that fateful day in May we have so much to play for. The battle for a top four finish is as fierce this season as it has ever been. Spurs, no doubt stung by the final day debacle of 2016, will be doubly determined to end their dreadful record of finishing below us year after year, and of course we are only a couple games away from the potential of a Wembley final.

Given that little list, anyone, whether they come from a pro or anti standpoint, who wastes their time and emotional energy getting excited about anything beyond the games themselves, surely deserves to have their bumps felt. Forget what may or may not be going on in the changing room or the boardroom. Spare no thought on the manager or players’ future plans. Don’t bang your head against the impenetrable wall of poor decisions and woeful commentary. Seriously, give it all up, nothing will change, nothing you do, think or say will make a scrap of difference. So why not just enjoy the game, revel in the tension and excitement of the run in and take the summer off until we go again in the Autumn?

I know one young man who will be doing just that and I’ll tell you something for nothing, he’ll be a whole lot happier than you or anyone else who gets themselves sucked into the morass of pointless argument, opinion and debate. Why not try it for just one game? Watch, enjoy, then just get on with your life until the next fixture comes around. Who knows, you might actually start enjoying football again.

163 Comments

Arsenal: No comets seen

 

spilled-wine-ygfMtC-clipart.jpgGood morning Positive Arsenal fans,

Let me get the grudging congratulations out of the way first to our opponents last night. Over two legs we encountered a team of the highest quality. If it was destined to be our largest ever defeat in the Champions League and at the Emirates we were ruthlessly despatched by a team likely to feature in the final of the competition, at least.

Of the game ? We were very good for 54 minutes. Not ‘good’ in a clinging-on, denying Bayern by the skin of our teeth kind of way but playing fast, creative football. Our first half performance was not down to one or two exceptional performances by Arsenal players, but a genuine team effort, front to back. A special word of praise however for young Hector. Not quite been in top form for a few weeks but best player on the pitch in the opening 45. We opened up the Germans on four occasions. Manuel Neuer, fine keeper that he is, seems oddly accident prone at the Emirates. Had more then one of those chances been put away then “what if …. ?”. Against a team of Bayern’s quality to fail to convert half chances into goals is surely the path to defeat. And so it proved.

Now we reach the 54th minute, and a gentleman who the mainstream media tell me goes by the name of Charalambos Kalogeropoulos. The official burst into the footballing limelight in a most unexpected fashion.  Now I do not know about you but the goal line assistant, an invention of Sepp Blatter in his relentless battle against technology, has not much featured in my football watching. I do not understand what they do, or are supposed to do, and because we see and hear so very little of them I suspect they are a vague about it themselves. See no evil, speak no evil et cetera.

Nevertheless the man insisted that the referee convert a yellow card, to a red card. And if I live to be a very old person I will not understand why. Ruined the contest, sank any conceivable chance of recovery on our part, and caused me to drink far more red wine than I would normally do on a Tuesday night. At least my wounds are self inflicted.

At 1-1 in truth I’d say the game was just about done, and would have been done, even with 11v11. A man advantage and our balloon punctured the final 35 minutes saw our lads dismembered in a professional, relentless fashion.

Could we have put ten men behind the ball and battled for a more respectable 2-1, 3-1 or 4-1 ? Would my work this morning have been easier had the defeat been of smaller proportion ? I dunno. And to be honest I don’t care. We play as we play.

Right then, enough of this wallowing in self pity. I spy a FA Cup quarter final on Saturday against Lincoln, who I can never recall seeing before in the flesh. I shall be there, making a noise, enjoying the game. And then there is the little matter of 12 Premier League games, amongst which are some tasty contests.

It is not all bad – enjoy your Wednesdays.

223 Comments

Arsenal Versus Bayern

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A rubber match isn’t, as the casual reader might suppose, an extremely poorly designed item for lighting one’s pipe. It is in fact (according to Wiktionary) “A sporting event at the end of a series in which the opponents are tied in terms of events won and lost.”

Hence we have the term ‘dead rubber’ coined to indicate the antithesis of this phenomenon. This, many would argue, is the appropriate term to apply to tonight’s fixture between Bayern Munich and Arsenal.

With the first half of the tie so effectively settled in favour of the German side there appears little point in getting overly excited about the return leg. It’s an argument with which it’s difficult to argue. Especially when one factors in the awful run of form Arsenal is trying its best to overcome.

I’m not going to attempt to sugar coat it, the side is shorn of confidence, making poor decisions all over the pitch and playing as if they expect to lose. It is never a particularly edifying sight watching your favourite team struggling like this, and I’m not interested in any of the excuses I’m sure are being bandied around.

The current malaise is almost certainly temporary, the players are not suddenly incapable merely because collectively they cannot find their feet. The amount of poor decisions on the pitch against Liverpool had me shaking my head and tutting in a manner seldom seen in Wesley Avenue on a match day. I know this comes as a shock to you, but yes, even the most positive among us is capable of sighing heavily from time to time.

I think what upset me most was not so much the hurried wayward passing as the amount of times the poorly executed pass was played directly into the danger zone, precisely where Liverpool would have wanted it, usually to a man heavily marked or on the back foot and without support. This was as much the fault of the players off the ball not moving to decent positions as it was the hapless attempts to find them with a bad pass.

Taken together it added up to a shaky, panicked display from a bunch of bewildered sportsmen struggling to understand why that which they usually find comes as second nature was suddenly so difficult.

How can the squad possibly do the improbable against one of the best teams in Europe? How indeed. Perhaps it would be more realistic to hope they begin to turn the tide. Put in a more coherent display, gradually turn the ship around and get themselves in the frame of mind to make a decent fist of the run in and the remaining FA Cup fixtures.

I had a sense that this was the plan at Anfield. Sit back and defend, draw if necessary but hope to hit on the break. Build a run of unbeaten results to get the engine running smoothly again. That would have made sense but of course team sport is a capricious beast and one cannot always steer it the way one might hope. The opposition, for example, will have a part to play in proceedings.

So what is left? Well, might I suggest that perhaps the only thing left tonight is the only thing that ever really mattered anyway? A game of football. An hour and a half of entertainment for the devotee both in the stadium and on the couch. Strip away the hyperbole and false analogies with armed conflict, remove the ridiculous media fuelled scandal and razzmatazz and what you have left is a football match.

Dead rubber or not if you are genuinely a fan of the sport you ought to able to enjoy the contest, the individual moments of improvisation and skill and the occasion itself. If not, if the match in and of itself isn’t enough for you and results are really all that matters then the final league table is widely published every May, you could spare yourself the weekly anguish and just glance at that.

95 Comments

How To Trash Arsene Wenger’s Legacy

malcolm-x-on-defeat

So Arsenal crashed to a 3-1 defeat to Liverpool over the weekend. Despite my colleague Andrew Nicoll’s optimism that eventually “Arsenal: We can work it out” I detect an air of over-reaction from among even the most resilient. One of my loyal Twitter followers made the following tweet:

“A strong action is needed or all what we have built in the last 12 yrs will collapse. We will have to start from the bottom.”

While the sentiment is from a good place, in my opinion it is insufficiently rooted in reality. If we base our opinions on the unbiased data, Saturday’s result was not really surprising.

In my last blog “Who Will Replace Santi Cazorla”, I shared with readers the results of my analysis of the Squawka data on Arsenal midfielders demonstrating, in no uncertain manner, that apart from Ozil and Cazorla there is a serious deficit in quality midfielders at the club. This I argued explains the club’s significant decline in Points Per Game (ppg) since Santi suffered his long term injury last October. Why then would any rational, objective football fan be overly surprised we failed to win the game. We came close to drawing with the ultimate goal bound shot by Alexis, but it was blocked and in the subsequent counter-attack, with Origi beating the offside trap by a hair’s breath and setting up Wijnaldum, the result was put beyond doubt.

Unlike the Robbie Earle’s and Kyle Martino’s of this world who, on my tv feed, engaged in the most hysterical anti-Wenger diatribes, blaming the manager’s failure to start Alexis Sanchez as cause for the defeat, as serious supporters of the football club we need to look beyond the headlines. Fortunately for us whoscored.com maintains a database of some key performance indicators for all clubs in the Premier League.

Indicators Arsenal’s Season Avg
Arsenal vs LFC Difference
Goals 2.2 0 -2.2
Shots 15 7 -8
Shots on target 5 3 -2
Pass Success 79% 77% -2%
Aerial Duel Success 56% 58% 2%
Dribbles won 18 8 -10
Tackles 19 16 -3
Possession 56% 48% -8%
Points 2.1 0% -2

In all statistical categories, except Aerial Duel Successs, Arsenal was substantially below its season average. Key failures were in making Dribbles, maintaining Possession and taking Shots at goal. Pundits engaged in sensationalism, such as Earle and Martino, “act” totally innocent of the fact there were two other key players missing from Arsenal who are vital to the overall success of the team especially in the key data categories.

As great an individual footballer as Alexis Sanchez has been at Arsenal this year, in scoring goals and making chances, he has way inferior statistics to Ozil and Cazorla in Passing Accuracy and retaining Possession. These were the key areas where AFC lost the game on Saturday. Clearly, when brought on in the second half, he added dynamism to the team assisting in one goal but ultimately it was not enough to swing the game decisively in Arsenal’s favor.

 Squawka Data Ozil Cazorla Sanchez
Avg Performance Score 27 25 41
Total Appearances 22 8 26
Shot Accuracy 50% 67% 59%
Avg. Pass Accuracy 87% 91% 73%
Avg. Pass Length 15m 16m 16m
Avg. Chances Created 2.68 1.25 2.5
Avg. Goals Scored 0.23 0.25 0.65
Avg. Defensive Actions 1 2 1
Avg. Duels Won 53% 28% 52%

Repeatedly I have had sceptics pushing back at the data, not acknowledging that by failing to identify the objective reasons for Arsenal’s current struggles they will never find the correct solutions. In fact those sceptics are bound to become even more despondent if  Arsenal fails to adopt the conventional option of changing the manager. Many I have seen eventually join the bitter anti-Wenger mob because they fail to grasp real solutions and and thus fall for the usual bread and circus most other clubs provide their fans.

Here is a “shocking” revelation. My analysis of the data reveals Arsenal is still some distance from becoming a dominant team in the ever increasing arm race among our top-6 rivals. The moneyed clubs are spending big not only on top-top players but experienced, talented managers. The ignorant muck and dreck of English football management have been replaced by the likes of Guardiola, Mourinho, Klopp and Conte, all of whom have won top titles in big domestic European leagues and if they have not won the Champions League have recently gone to the finals. Pochettino is the exception in terms of titles, but being a disciple of Bielsa, an innovative coaching legend, has transformed Spurs into a serious outfit who press relentlessly.

While Wenger was the innovator in bringing possession football to England, most of his competitors are building teams aimed at countering Arsenal’s strategy. Pressing and counter-pressing is the main strategy designed to disrupt and regain possession, quickly break on Arsenal’s high line, create overloads and create good scoring chances. As a result, Arsenal’s results this season, except for the win over Chelsea achieved with Santi Cazorla, have been pathetic.

Indicators With Without Difference
Shots 14 10 -4
Shots on target 5 4 -1.5
Pass Success 83% 78% -5%
Aerial Duel Success 38% 47% 9%
Dribbles won 11 11 0
Tackles 18 22 4
Possession 49% 51% 2%
Goals 3 1.3 -1.7
Points 3 0.3 -2.7

While the data set is very limited, only one game with Santi, based on six other matches between the top-6 the reality is very stark. Creating only 10 shots per game and 4 on target is not going to win many games against the top clubs in the PL. A measly average possession of 51% and a 78% passing rate is not going to cut the mustard for a possession oriented team. Scoring barely over one goal in these games is not a margin that guarantees a high probability of winning. Absent a player of Santi’s quality over a prolonged period, with the next best midfielder being a 21 year-old with less than two years experience in the league, is a recipe for repeated frustration.

It is arguable that the current squad may be good enough to consistently beat the other 14 teams in the league, but given the vagaries of form and the impact of injuries/fatigue while competing in four competitions annually, it is a virtual miracle Arsene Wenger has steered Arsenal to an average of just under 4th in the league over the last 10 years. The Board, quite rightly, made a big song and dance in the notes to the most recent 6-month financial statement of spending over £90 million on new talent while the wage bill increased by over £40 million.

However the data is speaking loudly; the club is excessively reliant on two top-top quality midfielders and it isn’t working. Seems to me the Board has no choice but to push the boat way out this Summer to land the right player who can make a difference in central midfield. Failing this I could see Arsene Wenger’s legacy being trashed by the usual suspects at the approaching twilight of his career.

75 Comments

Arsenal: We can work it out

46c6c21e69df450b156ac45ad040f2a4.jpgGood Morning Positive Arsenal fans,

Or as I believe they say on Merseyside a “Go ‘ed, rrrright, nice one, boss, well in, sound, belter, I’m made up” sort of Morning, or something like that.

Another sour taste of defeat in the roof of the mouth this morning, a little sharper and harder to ignore because it was the correct result against a Liverpool side who are as erratic as Arsenal are.

Of the game itself George had spoken of the need for the players, ALL the players, to turn up and perform to their abilities in what obviously would be a difficult tie. We had seen too many “slow” starts, too many games we have had to chase like fiends having let our opponents get ahead. Anfield was surely not the stage to slip into that sluggish entry to a game. Our players were rested. Our opponents had endured a poor night at the King Power and a far from solid home form. The task was clear and the auspices favourable.

The afternoon began poorly. Even before the referee’s whistle touched hi lips we were without Mesut so our creative engine was missing a crucial gear. That Sanchez on the bench was a surprise, but given our shaky recent form I could understand the change, applying a different and hopefully more direct approach. A strategy to try to retain the ball more which is not always the Chilean’s forte.

Sadly the first half was a contrast, to my eye at least, of Liverpool’s dynamic, fast football, orchestrated by Coutinho and with Sane as its cutting edge, in contrast to our own rather pedestrian approach. It was not just that they scored two goals, they looked dangerous every time they crossed the halfway line with the ball. We on the other hand had periods of possession during that first 45 but never ever looked like landing a dangerous blow. 30 yards out we huffed, puffed and passed in triangles, then frittered away possession with a speculative ill-directed chip into a crowded box or were harried off the ball by the gegenpresse. I find it difficult to identify one Arsenal player who during that first half performed to a level that they might look back and give themselves even a 6 out of 10. I saw not lack of effort, I just saw a lack of quality compared to our opponents.

I suspect Arsene did read the proverbial riot act at HT and, as we all saw, we set about the opposition with verve, in fact the sort of energy that had it been employed at 5.30 rather than 6.30 might have made a considerable difference to my work this morning. The obvious trigger for the change of pace was the arrival of Alexis and that he immediately became a thorn in the Scouse flank. Beyond that Latin injection though all of our players looked about a inch taller and a yard faster in that second half. An injection of half time confidence ? Or an injection of my favourite sporting concept at the moment “desperation”.

We clambered back aboard the train with ample 30+ minutes to retrieve at least a point, more than sufficient time. For the next 20 minutes the hosts rocked on their heels, with Coutinho finally subdued and their back four exhibiting all the signs of panic for which they have become so rightly famous.

They bent, they scrambled, they flung themselves in and across, but crack them we could not ! The whole game pivoted on our scoring again. We played out final Lucas and Theo cards but it was not to be. During that final fifteen minutes of the game, when I hoped we would have had the LFC goal under siege, in truth they managed to get a grip back on the match. If Origi’s header had spun inside rather than outside the post then it would have been no surprise. We pressed, but not with sufficient guile to penetrate.

We went down to the third of the well taken Liverpool goals with a blocked shot and a breakaway leading to Winjaldum’s tidy finish. The curtain came down, the evening was truly over.

So, with not as much enthusiasm as I should have, onwards to our meeting with Bayern. There is pride at stake, and possibly a few careers.

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Enjoy your Sunday.

159 Comments

Liverpool Then – Here’s Hoping?

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So the late ko at Anfield is going to be a test, in more ways than one I feel.

The team heads north going into the battle sitting insecurely in 4th spot, a single point in front of Liverpool, with a game in hand. The league positions alone would make this a big game, but it feels a lot more than just 3 points at stake.

Both teams are on poor runs, both managers are being blamed by very vocal sections of their fan-bases and both clubs have gone from title hopefuls to no-hopers as far as the media and the fan-bases seem concerned. Both teams need a win and one, or both, will definitely be disappointed come 7.22 p.m.

All I seem to see recently talked about is how poor our away form is,  against the current top 6 . The problem is,  and there is no getting away from it – It is poor. Of course that doesn’t mean it will stay poor. We can’t do anything about what has gone, but the players sure as hell can do something about what is to come.  I almost feel that the next few weeks ,these players will hold Arsene’s future in their hands. If they show the fight and togetherness needed to go on a good run, I believe Arsene will stay. However, if he sees anything less, I think he could decide his work with us is done. I stress, this is just my gut feeling, I could be completely wrong, he may stay if we go on a bad run, and he might equally leave if we go on a good one.

I also think this next few weeks could see the team staying together , with further building work going on in the Summer, if things go well. Or it break up as we know it ,with some players losing faith in the team or the club losing faith in some players, if things go badly.

The result will ultimately be all that matters today, but the application will be what is crucial going forward. If the players don’t show the spirit and application required, then Arsene will take the blame. And ultimately, this has to be the case.

I have no idea who should start, what tactics we should try or what shape we should use. That, thankfully is not my job or problem. I just want to see the players live up to the potential they have.

I believe in these players and our manager but I feel the moment of truth is upon them all. The club is coming to a fork in the road, and its up to the players to make the right turn.

I’m sure I’m coming across as a right drama queen, but I think this is a very important time for all concerned.

“Cometh the hour, cometh the men.”

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Come on you Gunners.

 

 

208 Comments

Arsenal: Who Will Replace Santi Cazorla?

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As Santi Cazorla this past week, once again, went under the knife to fix a relapse in his achilles injury, any  remaining  Gooner hopes of a late season title challenge were crushed. In contrast, Chelsea’s fortunes soared on Saturday with another seemingly routine win over Swansea. To be honest they could have been on the backfoot if Swansea was awarded a fairly obvious penalty midway the second-half  but the PGMO decided otherwise. It is now fair to say that, barring a Liverpool-like implosion, they will win the 2016-17 premier league (PL) title. Despite my red tinted lens, that possibility does not even register on my telescope. As matters now stand City, Spurs, Arsenal, United and Liverpool are in a desperate battle for the other top-3 positions which will grant entry into the Champion’s League.

Despite my early optimism, especially after the club overcame a bad start and went on a 14 game unbeaten streak between August 20th and December 10th last year, amassing 33 points or a 2.35 points per game (ppg), I was less confident after Santi Cazorla pulled up lame at Ludogorets in the Champions League fixture and was ruled out of the following PL game with Middlesborough on October 22nd. Initially the club seem to manage well without the little midfield maestro, scraping draws with United and Spurs and banging West Ham 5-1 last November, but that was only flattering to deceive. The unbiased data always speaks the cold, hard truth. Seventeen (17) games in the PL without Santi and the ppg has fallen to 1.76, a mind-blowing 25% drop. Most striking, Arsenal was 1st place in the league Arsenal on October 20th, and today the club is battling for 4th with City.

In spite of the power and clarity of the data, we continue to have fake news or better yet fake analysis by pseudo experts in the mainstream media, blogs and podcasts pouring blame on Arsene Wenger for the recent run of bad results especially the heavy defeat to  Bayern Munich in the Champions League. But at last there are a few in the mainstream media who now acknowledge what I have blogged on at least three (3) occasions over the past year, Santi Cazorla is the key to Arsenal and he is virtually irreplaceable.

First, on October 24, 2016 the Telegraph’s Charlie Eccleshare did a piece which had as its headline:

“Arsenal’s draw with Middlesbrough underlines why Santi Cazorla is the player Arsene Wenger cannot do without”  

Later on December 2nd a follow-up by Eccleshare was published with another bold header:

“Santi Cazorla injury will derail Arsenal’s season – unless Arsene Wenger does something drastic”

Well the data is in and Arsenal’s season is badly off the tracks. Even though the Guardian’s Barney Ronay flowery language is often aimed at the literary cognoscenti, he was straight to the point:

“With Cazorla in the centre Arsenal are a different team. Mainly they’re a better one, his presence above all defensive and stabilising, a leadership role. This season Cazorla has started 10 games, with eight wins and two draws. Arsenal have kept five clean sheets with him in the team, compared with four in 20 League and Champions League games since his injury. In the last five years Arsenal have beaten Chelsea, Manchester United, Manchester City, Liverpool and Tottenham just once without their most resilient ball-hog in the team.”

It is noteworthy that Ronay identifies and recognizes something that many of us at Positively Arsenal, especially our friend When We Were Boring, have emphasized. Santi is the technical leader of this team. None of this abstract, data-free nonsense that the current team and players lack guts, which is simply the reactionary shibboleths of a past era when apparently Nobby Styles was the proof of leadership by emerging from games bloodied and toothless as if he had been in a 15 round  boxing brawl (Readers who don’t know of Nobby, should Bing him up).

For those who so easily forget what Santi brings to the table in big games like Bayern, turn your minds to three-four months ago in Arsenal’s champion’s league game away to PSG. In the words of Ronay:

“Just as it is unlikely any English team will see a better all-round performance this season than Cazorla’s outflanking of that powerful Paris Saint-Germain midfield in the second half in Paris last September, scuttling about, holding the ball in tiny spaces and driving the game back Arsenal’s way like a plucky little snowspeeder patiently winding its guy rope around the legs of the imperial walkers.”

I quote these well published journos simply to affirm what I seem unable to sufficiently convey via the data; Santi is the key to the Arsenal way of playing and, at least for now, is irreplaceable. To the contrary, some of my friends at PA urge and I paraphrase: “Stop belabouring the point, Shotta, we have other midfielders who can compensate.”

Can they truly compensate? Recently I did an analysis of the season-to-date Squawka PL performance data of all the Arsenal midfielders and it was a revelation. To make it easy for mobile devices I will break the table in 2 parts.

Top-4 Avg Performance Score

Ozil Cazorla Iwobi The Ox
Avg Performance Score 27 25 22 18
Total Appearances 22 8 21 21
Shot Accuracy 50% 67% 47% 43%
Avg. Pass Accuracy 87% 91% 87% 82%
Avg. Pass Length 15m 16m 14m 17m
Avg. Chances Created 2.68 1.25 1.14 1.10
Avg. Goals Scored 0.23 0.25 0.14 0.10
Avg. Defensive Actions 1 2 1 1
Avg. Duels Won 53% 28% 55% 53%

Bottom-4 Avg Performance Score

Xhaka Elneny Coquelin Ramsey
Avg Performance Score 18 16 16 11
Total Appearances 19 12 21 12
Shot Accuracy 23% 0% 14% 29%
Avg. Pass Accuracy 89% 92% 88% 90%
Avg. Pass Length 18m 16m 15m 16m
Avg. Chances Created 0.84 0.25 0.62 0.83
Avg. Goals Scored 0.05 0 0 0
Avg. Defensive Actions 3 1 4 1
Avg. Duels Won 45% 42% 48% 52%

I have already made the point in my last blog that Cazorla is our second best midfielder next to  Ozil and is inferior in only one offensive statistic i.e. Chances Created, making him a huge loss as an attacker. In his absence the team is forced to rely Iwobi and Oxlade-Chamberlain as Attacking Midfielders. While Arsenal fans should be extremely happy with the development of both players, the stubborn fact is that at 87% and 82% Pass Completion respectively as well as inferior chance creation stats it is hardly likely they will trouble defenders in much the same way as Santi. Nevertheless they are young players with a high upside and in Arsene they have a manager who is infinitely capable of bringing the best out of them. The bottom-line is neither is really suited for a deep lying role thus the manager is relying on Xhaka, Elneny and Coquelin and Ramsey to perform this function. The fact that they as well as The Ox have sub 20 average performance scores is a telling statistic. Even more troubling is the most experienced in the lot is Aaron Ramsey, but he has had an injury plagued season and his average performance score is a measly 11. The data is compelling; Arsene may have 6 injury-free midfielders but he is starved of another quality attacking central midfielder. (Note to StatDNA and the scouts in planning for the 2017 transfer season.)

I am no tactical expert and I have no advice to give the manager. He, I am sure, is more aware than all of us of the scale of the challenge he faces and the experience to prevail. For example on February 7, 2015, Arsenal lost to Tottenham 2-1 and fell to 6th place in the league with only 42 points. In the next 14 matches the club went on a run of 10 wins, three draws and one loss to finish 3rd at 75 points. Switching Santi to that deeper role, in place of the injured Mikel Arteta, was the key to that revival. Surely Arsene will find another internal solution.

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