98 Comments

Arsenal: Opportunity beckons

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Good afternoon Positive Red People,

I trust we are all primed for his evening’s game which, by my reckoning, is our 8th serious contest with the Blues in the last 16 month. (W3L1D4). The semi final tie is perfectly balanced. Like us Conte’s men have struggle to score goals, despite bringing in an expensive striker in the Summer. Recent draws have been greeted  by the spoiled Stamford Bridge hoard with “Boooos”.  A home crowd booing ? Ridiculous.

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I anticipate both managers will put out their strongest possible sides, so that for me would involve Aaron  back, with young Alex Iwobi tasked with filling the departed Chilean’s role this evening. Will Sead come back in ? I hope so. It will be a wet, cold night, and perhaps run into extra time and penalties. A tank is likely to adapt to the conditions better than the smoother wheeled vehicle that is AMN.

Of our opponents Conte appeared to say that Cesc and Morata were out with injuries yesterday, and this morning’s MSM report that he and Batshuayi have had another contretemp – perhaps a dash from the Potteries for Crouchie iis not impossible after all (no I have no idea if he is Cup-tied either!)

One moment of brilliance from one of the many excellent players  on show, or one catastrophic error,  will ensure that one club and their supporters returns home in despair, and one triumphantly matches on down Wembley Way determined to dent Pep’s ambitions on the 25th February.  To lose at the semi final stage – very cruel. What I absolutely will not tolerate is cheating from players on either side. I expect all the players, and both managers, to do their best to assist the match officials over what will be a tense 90 or 120 minutes. Like all of you my fingers are firmly crossed that VAR will improve decision  making and erase both the cheating of opposition players and the refereeing errors that have cost us so often.

And speaking of brilliance;

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So settle in for kick off at 8.00 pm UK time. Lets have plenty of noise, clapping,  blowing your Arsehorns, and no sneaking out before the end.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

203 Comments

Arsenal: Slick and Professional

Good morning Positivistas,

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That was much much more like it. Football reared its lovely head across a wet North London Saturday afternoon. The players, all of them in fact,  delivered the fans 90 minutes of entertainment, and a comfortable three point win.

I have to admit a cloak of trepidation swaddled the Arsenal faithful on the way to the ground, after recent on pitch disappointments and off pitch shenanigans. It was understandable with January so far having been a month of one-step forward, two-steps back. Palace came into the game on  good run of form, over their past dozen Premier League games their only recent defeat to us and points take off Citeh and beating Chelsea.

Looking at the line up I sensed Arsene decided that that is was a key game in our season, and it as the best 11 who were available on the pitch, never mind future games or player “fatigue”. Elneny coming also gave us more energy in the centre of the park and freed Jack to rove forward. A fit again Ozil will always add quality to our movement and attaching threat. To start for what seems the first time this year (? maybe longer) with Nacho, Kosc and Mustafi gave us a more confident base from which to build.

And so it proved. It was a dream opening, no other word for it. After weeks of frustration with us struggling to create chances and thwarted by good goalkeepers when we did the Palace gates opened and we streamed in. 6 Nacho, 10 Iwobi, 13 Kosc and finally, our long suffering strokers, 22 Alexander Lacazette. Did you see him smile after the goal ?

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It has been a while since he has enjoyed the grinning feeling, so to speak.

And CORNERS eh ? Who said we cant take corners ! Pffft.

I read somewhere it is four years since a team has been 4-0 in the PL in 20 minutes ( yes it was THAT game). And none of the goals were breakaways, none were lucky deflections, OGs or  glaring defensive errors from Palace. It was good Arsenal football, crisp finishing and thoroughly deserved.

The second part of the match ? Clearly 4-0 up we slowed a little and consolidated our hold on the game. Hodgson appears to have done a fair job in rousing his lads at half time to ensure they did not end up totally thrashed and the visitors came out with a lot more purpose. Apart from the goal they eventually did get Palace had another couple of chances that Cech dealt with well. Zaha had an ‘interesting’ afternoon. The referee Kavanagh who I think was making his PL whistling debut had obviously read upon young Wilfried and gave him absolutely nothing, despite the full repertoire of theatrical tumbling and heart rending moaning from the Ivorian. Good.

With 15 minutes to go we wound down the game, packed the picnic away and headed for the car park. The job was done. And thoughts turned to the next fixture that kicks off on Wednesday !

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(If he plays his cards right he may get a selfie opportunity next time).

Enjoy Sunday.

91 Comments

Arsenal: Football breaks the window

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@LaboGoon opens the curtains 

January eh – don’t you just wish this month was over already? Well, at least not without a few wins under the belt, a ‘departure’ and one or two “top top” additions to our squad. Now that will really help to lift this gloom.

Arsenal host Crystal Palace at the Emirates this afternoon, with the goal being us making up lost ground on the top 4 teams. Albeit temporarily… but one never know.

What we do know is that when Roy took over the Eagles they were low in confidence and in desperate need of points. It was a bit touch-and-go initially but through immense fortitude they overcome their nervy patch and are now a formidable unit that take nothing for granted and give even less away, because they know they are not completely out of the woods yet as far as PL survival is concerned, ergo they go out there and play each game as if it’s a cup final, to not be left wondering.

In the last 12 rounds of PL fixtures Palace lost just once and that, of course, was vs us at Selhurst Park, which was also the last time we won a game in all competitions. Since then we lost our way a bit, starting with bad luck in the form of few questionable refereeing decisions, then doubts crept in, culminating in us looking short of ideas vs Bournemouth last Sunday.

That we are in the midst of a very unsettling period goes without saying, but we are just one good result away, that may not necessarily silence some of our critics but at least it will change the tide for these players, on and off the field.

To get over the line today we will have to up the intensity from what we’ve seen these last few weeks, as well as have a real go at Palace from the very first minute, because we’ve seen so many times if you leave things too late you are leaving it to chance.

The Emirates has been treating us good though, so I see no reason why we shouldn’t put in a solid performance to get the desired result.

On team news: Monreal and Koscielny are back in good health and Özil should also be fine. So even without Alexis we should still field a stronger side than in recent weeks.

Good luck to all going to the Emirates. I got a feeling today will be a good day to re-ignite the Arsenal torch.

***

171 Comments

Arsenal: Only a 40% Correlation between Penalties-For and Avg League Position

State of denial

It is amazing how far we as human beings, including us football fans; will go to deny reality, specifically to deny facts that do not conform with our deeply held beliefs. Denialism is a very common element of human behavior and is defined by the psychologists as:

“…a person’s choice to deny reality, as a way to avoid a psychologically uncomfortable truth. Denialism is an essentially irrational action that withholds the validation of a historical experience or event, when a person refuses to accept an empirically verifiable reality.”

The problem however with calling anyone or group of people a denialist is we are all guilty to some degree or other. After all denial is a psychological defense we all use at times to reduce our anxiety when reality feels particularly disturbing. Short of being clinically diagnosed as suffering from paranoia or delusional disorder, we all have the impulse to be denialists.

Unfortunately most human beings refuse to accept we are all psychologically inclined to act irrationally. That is why the majority will always be victims of those forces in our society who happy to take advantage of our irrational fears and anxieties and our impulse to retreat into denialism.

In some of my previous posts (most notably Fear And Despair vs The Arsenal) I used the example of the stock market to highlight how Arsenal fans, in particular, are emotionally manipulated by the media to believe the club is on the verge of disaster, despite an unmatched history of consistency in the Premier League and the consequent massive growth in the fanbase during the Wenger era. As a result many fans, perhaps a majority, have the irrational belief that a self-sustaining club like Arsenal will somehow achieve better results by getting rid of arguably their greatest manager ever.

Yet it is almost an absolute certainty that Stan Kroenke will never pursue the “sugar-daddy” model to compete with City, Chelsea and United. Furthermore, as long as the club grows organically and the value of his investment increases, there is almost zero probability Stan will sell his majority stake to Usmanov or, for that matter, to the Chinese vultures who no doubt are circling in the hope of acquiring a flagship PL club to add to their portfolio. If Arsenal PLC was a liquid stock on Wall St, the professionals, who profit by betting against human psychology, would never tire of taking money from the lemmings who sell whenever the media is unanimous that disaster is near.

That was a somewhat long-winded introduction to my main subject which is the denialism when it comes to the facts I have unearthed and published re PGMOL referees. Despite the data and accompanying statistics which show a historical pattern of bias against Arsenal in Penalties-Against, there are a multitude of naysayers who pooh-poohed my findings as if they were the exception and not the rule. One wonders if they would be satisfied if, someone had the wherewithal run a parallel PL league on a neutral planet with neutral referees using VAR and testing whether the distribution of penalties for was correlated with a club’s league ranking.

Not having those resources, I decided to test my hypothesis of bias by observing whether the average number of penalties awarded was in any way correlated to league standing in the PL. Surely it is reasonable to assume that the best ranked teams get the most penalties and vice-versa. If there is such a correlation, does Arsenal’s average penalty count correlate with its average league position?

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When the data is mapped graphically, we get a downward sloping graph from left to right which indicates the average 1st placed teams get 6 penalties per season and the 20th placed teams are down to just 2.6 pens. Obviously it is not a perfect slope. There is a lot of noise in the mid-table from 5th position downwards. This is partially explicable by the fact that these clubs are very inconsistent from year-to-year in contrast with the consistency of the historical top-4. But the pattern is unmistakable; over time, there is a negative relationship between league position and the average penalties a team earn.

To prove my point I did a statistical test to verify whether there was any correlation between the two variables. According to the Spearman test,  (the data covers the past 11 PL seasons) there is a 84% correlation between average league position and Penalties-For. On the contrary, while Arsenal averaged 3.5 in the league between 07/08 and 16/17, there is only a 40% correlation between Arsenal’s league position and the penalties it has been awarded, a more than 50% difference from that of all PL clubs. This is a disparity which in my opinion cannot be justified by glibly saying Gooners are “making excuses”, “picking on the refs”, etc. This is a significant chunk of  data spanning 11 years and covering 418 games. Something stinks and it is getting smellier.

Needless to say, the mainstream media and the major Arsenal bloggers, refuse to analyze and publicize the freely available data which reveals the PGMOL to be thoroughly biased and unfit for the purpose. By keeping quiet they are not merely in denial, they are very much aiding and abetting a corrupt, faulty system of officiating.

One wonders if the same PGMOL refs will be allowed to make the final penalty and offsides decisions when VAR is soon introduced into the PL.

Do football fans really believe that after making such a big show of using VAR in the recent Carabao Cup matches, the PGMOL and its allies in the football Establishment will meekly give up their power to influence games? If you do, then surely you have taken permanent residence in the State of Denial.

123 Comments

Arsenal: Calamity at the Vitality !!

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Good afternoon Positives,

I shall make it brief and, I  hope, to the point. I admit the positives of the game today, though not impossible to find, are a little thin.

Let me however get the brutal bit out of the way.

We played today as a team lacking or short in probably two essential elements.

First, we lacked confidence that when we have the ball and we are in the final third of the field, with the white painted oblong things in sight, we are actually able to ‘do’ something with the football.  We look so hesitant in our approach play as we move towards the opposition box  we don’t seem to believe we will score.

I do not blame individual players and as individuals we have very good players.  Jack for example for long periods was very effective in controlling midfield and winning us the ball. It is a collective failure to transform possession, and often good field position, into serious scoring efforts and to test the keeper. Begovic had bugger all to do today, and even that he messed up with Hector’s shot.

To what extent that loss of collective purpose is a consequence of missing ” star” players, through injury in Mesut and Santi’s case and by reason of the transfer shenanigans in the case of Alexis I shall let others decide.

Giroud’s absence is a gap that probably few Arsenal fans, me included, thought would be so significant. We have only young Eddie on the bench to change our attacking options, and that ain’t enough. Even so the players out there today should have coped far better with the Bournemouth challenge.

Second, the quality of our passing from open play and from  the occasional dead ball we gained today was poor. Pass after pass went astray.  I saw maybe one incisive, accurate ball ( for Hector’s goal). Add that to our tentative, nervy approach play and where the next goal is coming from I do not know.

And well done the Cherries. A deserved result in which what you had, as a team, you used better than what we had.

Right that is the sack cloth and ashes done.

Luckily, probably very luckily, our next two games are at home. Our record in front of the Emirates faithful remains impressive. Let us put our travel woes behind us.

Of our players today Jack, as I said above,  I thought played well. He looks fit, and more important he looks as though his brain is back up to full PL speed. Subject to his physical condition remaining intact I think we can expect him to have a Summer in Russia. Another good effort from AMN. Very good going forward and the only AFC player to open up the home defence on his own, before clipping the bar. He was a little off it in defence first half but more solid in the second.

Off you go then – this is not Anfield.

94 Comments

Arsenal: The Cherry Blossom Sunday

@LaboGoon opens the programme – and he’s not predicting 0-0 

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Good day Positivistas ……

Arsenal face Bournemouth at the Vitality Stadium this afternoon, looking for some respite after recent results.

We of course didn’t start 2018 the way we would have liked, so a positive result would really help set the tone for us to kick-on to stay in touch with those teams fighting it out for a top 4 finish. Bournemouth themselves are desperate for points as they hover just above the drop zone by a single point.

So for both of these teams there is plenty to play for.

Looking at Eddie Howe’s team you immediately associate them with energy and commitment. But this season they are a bit topsy-turvy, blowing hot and cold; hot when the opposition are all over the place, and cold when you come at them direct and well organised. And for a team that has picked up just one victory in their last 10 PL games, Eddie is getting a surprisingly easy ride when so many others are taking a lot of heat. But he’s a good guy that always try to play good football and not hide whatever weaknesses behind a bus. Which has always suited us as we have scored 13 goals against them in 5 games since being promoted, conceding 6 goals of which 3 were in an entertaining 3-3 draw in this fixture last season.

So for us it’s important to approach this game in the right frame of mind and not allow outside pressures to stifle our performance and tactics. We need to go out there and get on with the business of the day.

Team news: after an initial scare mid-week Jack seem to have recovered from his knock. Ramsey and Kolašinac returned to full training and is expected to play a part. Özil will be subjected to a late fitness test for a swollen knee. By the end of the month we could be back to a full complement – Santi aside of course.

With the promise of goals for us today it would be foolish to write the Cherries off. Despite a rough patch they still remain a good side, so we have to look after our play, take care of the ball and focus on playing our natural game, while staying switched on defensively.

Last but not least; another thing we need catching a break from is inept (and I am being polite) refs. That’s the least we deserve after Mike’s ‘confession’.

So thank you for being a Friend.

Good luck to our boys and everyone watching the game today. Hopefully after the game we all will be filled with renewed optimism.

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92 Comments

Arsenal Trial Plan B ?

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Well I’m happy with that result, I certainly have no complaints about going to the home of the champions , who are in great form with no injuries, with six of our nailed on first team starters missing, and playing in a more defensive way. It was however, not a case of parking the proverbial bus.

For all the stick Iwobi got on twitter, I thought he put in a good shift. Yes, he seems to freeze when he gets into the box, but he carried the ball well and always looked to get on it. I feel he offered more than Danny, who has struggled a bit of late.

Jack and Xhaka were both very good, as was ElNeny when he replaced Jack.

All three centerbacks played well with Hector and AMN playing a disciplined game, but still venturing forward when the opportunity arose.

Not many chances for either side. Perhaps that the Arsenal Yer Da wants back?

Shame about Jack’s knack, but hopefully its just a short term hiccup to his very impressive return to first team duties.

@arseblagger (Pedantic George)

69 Comments

Will It Be A Bridge Too Far ?

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Seconds out , round 7.

So far its won 3 drawn 2 and lost 1 in the Conte Chelsea vs Arsenal. However the 1 loss was at The Bridge.

Once again I have absolutely  no idea what type of a team we will be able to scratch together for the semi final of the Cup of Milk Trophy. or whatever you want to call it. Worryingly thought is fear we will be up against a full strength Chelsea team , in good form, in their own back yard. If we can avoid losing, I’m calling that a fantastic result.

So there you have it, try to enjoy the game and I’ll see you on the other side.

@arseblagger (Pedantic George)

86 Comments

Arsenal: somewhere over the rainbow

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@ReverendGooner provides an antidote to this morning’s sombre mood 

Well parishioners as we sit back and pick over the still warm carcass that was 2017 and reflect on our team’s ups and downs we can either be one of two things, we can say hey it’s not all that bad and we are still in with a shout of the top 4 and 2 cups with 16 weeks to go or we can scream ‘Man the Lifeboats’ I’m getting off this tub before it takes me down with it. Now I don’t know about the rest of you enlightened ones but I am definitely the former rather than the abandon ship brigade so I won’t be grabbing my life jacket just yet if you don’t mind. We currently sit in 6th spot as I write this piece 8 points off 2nd place and while this is not ideal its not exactly the end of the world either.

The detractors would have you believe that this is an absolutely catastrophic situation and that the end of the world is nigh. Our manager ‘the old duffer in a sleeping bag’ as some portray him still harbours a large degree of optimism for the season as do many Arsenal fans but hey he’s hardly going to come out and say that we are royally f$#@ed is he so let’s look at where we currently are and more importantly let’s look at our fans expectation and rightly or wrongly where they believe we should be.

Like many of you cyber pilgrims I’m quite active on social media and interact with many fans from both sides of the managerial debate and the biggest commonality is there is no commonality its very simple in that you are either for the manager or very much against him. You can drone on with some justification about match scheduling and referees who cost all teams points with their poor decision making and performances but I don’t think that’s the problem I think its us the fans that are the problem. Fans have expectations and want the club to show ambition to match that expectation but how realistic is that and how realistic are the fans expectations. I say show the same ambition in your own life before demanding it of others then demonstrate that success before holding yourself up as a beacon of hope and enlightenment.

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Now some of you will disagree with my opinion and that’s fine that’s your right and one that I am happy to accept as a part time blogger. Over the period of last year, I have had a good look at some of these so called real Arsenal fans and their constant on line rants about the Arsenal Football Club and in particular the owner, the manager, CEO & squad. They offer advice and comment on where it’s all going wrong and how to fix it on everything from owners share allocations, to the corporate structure of the board and of course how to win the PL & CL before the pub closes.

I have had a closer look at the person offering said advice and demanding that Arsenal match their expectation and realise they are just spouting off to paper over the cracks of their own short comings just like the dad at Saturday morning football who was never actually any good at football but continues offering advice to his son’s team demanding perfection and telling everyone how it should be done. We all want Arsenal to do well and we all want to win the PL, CL and every other trophy but there has to be a large slice of reality applied to that expectation. Every other club is trying to do the same thing at the same time and a myriad of factors need to be taken into consideration in order to achieve this. The rise of social media in recent years has only served to amplify this call for ambition from fans 24/7. Now fans can interact with the players, administrators and the media on a one to one basis and while this is a serious step in fan participation and interaction it’s not always been for the best.

The ongoing saga that is the Sanchez/Ozil contract negotiations have further exasperated things which has also served to raise my awareness of the ever-increasing amount of contract and business law experts there are within the Arsenal fanbase. As someone that studied business law at university and works with complex business contracts on a daily basis I would still not deem it appropriate to offer advice or counsel to Arsenal on how best to resolve the issue because I simply do not know the background behind these negotiations or the foundations that the original contracts were based on yet we have Bill the brickie, Steve the Tesco’s manager and numerous bloggers, podcasters and fan tv host’s telling Arsenal’s executive & legal department exactly how it should be done.

Maybe I should shoot a few Investment JV contracts over to these guys for a quick look see on mate’s rates to make sure I’m doing the right thing; the simple truth is we have absolutely no idea what goes on behind closed doors and due to very strict privacy laws we are not about to either. The other great bone of contention is the CL and why Arsenal don’t win it? Today’s CL is nothing more than a UEFA sanction El Classico for Barcelona and Real Madrid (Real3 or Barca1 have won it past 4 years) and on the infrequent occasions other clubs have won the cup its because they have spent an inordinate amount of money to do so and Arsenal Plc are simply not prepared to do that.

On the one occasion we did manage to get to the final we were robbed by a doggy Barcelona supporting referee appointed by Platini’s equally doggy UEFA. In regards to the PL where do Arsenal fans expect Arsenal to be in the league table? If you take any notice of Twitter OR Facebook then we should be right up along side City which is fanciful. Where in our history have we ever been an English & European powerhouse that some fans speak of? The answer of course is never. We have never been an all dominating force like the Utd & Liverpool sides of the past we have had patches of domination and the closest we came to dominating a decade was in the 30’s under 3 different managers: Chapman. Shaw & Alison winning the title 5 years out of 10 (31,33,34,35 & 38). Bertie Mee put together a good side that won the Fairs cup in 1970 and the double in 1971 but then came the wilderness years (1972-1988) punctuated with a League Cup in 87 and the FA cup win in 1979 against Utd. Then there is that old chestnut we want our Arsenal back which again is fanciful stuff. George Graham our 2nd most successful manager in history won 6 trophies in 8 years (1986-1994) but when he was fired for taking a bung the club was left in an absolute shambolic mess both on the inside and out with Alcohol addiction, drug taking and gambling (The Tuesday Club) prevalent in the squad & the club also beset by financial issues so where is this mythical Arsenal they all speak so fondly of.

Arsenal are the 3rd most successful club in English football history but they are still some way off the success that Utd and Liverpool enjoyed. Arsenal were always a good cup team that could nick the odd premiership until the Frenchman came along and modernised the entire set up and I think the Arsenal the younger fans keep referring to is of course Wenger’s Arsenal of his 1st 10-year tenure. Wenger’s time is drawing to a close and new blood is needed to take us into the future because the man simply cannot go on forever but his achievements should never be sneered at or belittled by fans who are either too young to remember Arsenal before Wenger or the ones who are old enough but have conveniently forgotten or choose to gloss over the real facts to suit their current argument. As for where Arsenal should be as far as fan expectation well how long is a piece of string.

Some football fans go their entire lives without seeing their club win a trophy let alone the PL title and yet they turn up game after game to follow their team come rain or shine. They love their team and follow it with passion, loyalty and commitment accepting the good with the bad. Sure, they might have a moan but they don’t carry on the way some Arsenal fans do. Some Arsenal fans seem to believe that we have some inalienable right to always win and win well with style and panache. You will often here the phrase “a club as big as Arsenal” should be doing a lot better than they are. You will also hear the argument that Arsenal now has a lot more money & should be competing better than they are but doesn’t everyone have more money now and no one has more money & the power of investment equity than City.

So, taking into consideration the fact that the PL is awash with money which has dramatically reduced the gap between a lot of the clubs don’t you think where we currently are fighting for top 4 and 2 cups is about right or do you think we should be spending billions of another people’s money to win the PL & CL just to satisfy fan expectation? You know like Manchester Utd are in the post Fergie era. If some of you really do think 3 trophies in 4 years is a bit meh and the FA Cup is nothing more than a B grade trophy these days then maybe you really are “Somewhere Over the Rainbow” so click your ruby slippers 3 times, say there is no place like home and come back to reality.

Here endeth the lesson parishioners

131 Comments

A Test Of Our Squad

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This afternoon The Arsenal play the once great Nottingham Forest in the biggest domestic cup competition in the world. The fact that the mighty Arsenal have won this competition three times in just four years should not make us blase towards it. Think about the joy we all felt at the final whistle of those finals, then tell me that wasn’t one of your great memories of your supporting life. From the fight back against Hull, to the artistry against Villa and the defying of the odds against Chelsea. Great times, Truly great times, I want more.

Forest are currently sitting 14th in The Championship and should be no problem for a team sitting 6th in The Premier League, but it’s never going to be that simple, We simply wont be fielding anything like the Premier League team, due to our hectic schedule and quite extensive injury list, I suspect the team will be the weakest we have put out this season. However, there isn’t a player in our squad that isn’t a very good play and we should have enough if the attitude is right.

I honestly couldn’t even begin to predict the line up, so I wont bother . All I can say is I’m looking forward to it and expect us be win. I think it will be a very hard fought win all the same.

Enjoy your day my friends

Up The Arsenal