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Arsenal Versus Chelsea: Unfinished Business

Posted by steww on January 24, 2016 in All Posts

Lots of football fans are spending a lot of time discussing the various merits of teams not their own. There is even a rift among Arsenal fans – but fear not for this is a rift of the gentlest and least acidic nature – as to whether Leicester City should stop irritating everyone and bugger off or whether they might continue just long enough to take points from Manchester City. Some are looking nervously over their shoulders towards Paxton Road as the noisy neighbours continue to stack up points in what looks like a irritatingly consistent fashion. Others worry that Manchester United, despite being written off as a disaster movie, are actually still in fifth place and hardly an irrelevance given their historical tendency to spoil things for everyone around them.

Supporters, like gunslingers in a wild west saloon, sit nervously fingering the hammers on their Colt revolvers, casting quick uncertain glances around the room unsure where the real danger lies. Such is the nature of the 2015/16 season. Uncertainty is king, the unexpected the only thing worth betting on. Some adventurous fellow was actually giving out his score predictions for all the top six clubs over the next few games. I read them and stood to applaud such selfless endeavour. Bravo sir. Could I suggest you perhaps get a hobby? Maybe he thinks he already has one.

The fourth estate, that foetid swamp of amoral, parasitic blood suckers doesn’t know which way to turn and is terrified that Arsène may put two fingers up to the lot of them and actually win the title. Instead of simply acknowledging where the club is they are trying to pile on pressure with their ‘the best chance for years’ narrative or as in the case of disaffected ex players like Robson openly stating that Arsenal ought to win the thing so that if anybody else does it can be painted as a huge failing by the manager and players.

I have a subtly different take upon all this hoo-ha and folderol. As soon as we hit the top of the table I actually cease to give two hoots about any of the other teams regardless of their upcoming matches or current form. Only when they appear on the Arsenal fixture list do they even truly exist for me. You see, my fellow followers of football’s finest, the time to worry about what the others do or don’t do is when we are chasing them not the other way about.

When my mother taught me to drive back in the halcyon days of the Triumph TR7 and Ford Fiesta XR2i, she would swat away any comment I made about the vehicle driving in such close proximity to my rear end that it appeared to be attempting to mate with my lumbering Austin Maxi. She would tell me in no uncertain terms not to worry about what was happening behind me “Let them worry about you” was her mantra and it is sound advice whether on the A362 or when contemplating a possible push for the Premier League pole.

We, in contradistinction to all other sides, enjoy the comfort of only needing to concern ourselves with our own result. Win today by any margin and we go top again. It is a splendid state of affairs. If and when it changes I shall alter my stance and ponder the results of the team or teams in front of us. Until then I’m not interested in the rear view mirror. There is only one goal and that is victory against Chelsea.

Any other year and a visit from any other team languishing in fourteenth place might not cause much of a flutter. Add to this the possible return of two of our better players and one might have expected a little more confidence in the run up to such a game. Except of course it isn’t any other team is it? It is the demon spawn of Fulham. The financially doped, universally despised, diving, cheating, thuggish ensemble of brattish, unsavoury ne’er-do-wells who have never made life easy for us. Like Liverpool and Stoke I expect them to raise their game today. The graph showing their league progress this season may have virtually flat-lined over the last dozen games or so but they still posses a talented and capable squad and we will need to be at our most truculent, determined best to prevail.

The table however, does not lie. Arsenal is where it is on merit and likewise our visitors are where they are on merit. Play to our potential and we can beat anybody. Refuse to rise to their illegal tactics or respond to their deliberate provocation and we will return to the top of the table this evening.

A capable referee is vital in this fixture as anyone who witnessed the debacle at Stamford Bridge can attest. I see that a certain Mr Clattenburg holds the whistle, cards and shaving foam today. I won’t presume to be able to distinguish his ability from any of the other hapless and most probably corrupt gang of useless, myopic and inconsistent fools who spoil so many matches every year, but I’m sure Andy Nic has Clatty’s picture on his bedroom wall and will be better placed to tell us what a decent, professional and responsible fellow he is. So I’ll leave that to you Andy.

Personally I used to hate playing Chelsea above all other teams. Their demise as a threat and the departure of the graceless one has somewhat drawn the sting as far as that goes. I still want to beat them of course. Granted, given that a win puts us back on top, I want us to beat everyone we play so that doesn’t mean much. I just feel, Diego Costa aside, that a little of the venom has left this particular fixture and that is all to the good.

Calm professional heads needed from now until May, I fancy. The kind of serene determination best able to shuck off the occasional predictable disappointment and get back to winning ways tout de suite. I firmly believe we have these kind of players. Given even half decent luck with injuries and a bit of backbone from the fans we should be there or thereabouts.

But let’s not get ahead of ourselves. Let’s do that which needs to be done today and allow tomorrow to wait until its appointed hour. At the time of writing our destiny is still in our own hands, get the job done today and we can begin to prepare in a similar vein for the visit of Southampton, with whom we also have a little unfinished business to attend. Oh dear, just listen to me, preaching live for today and at the same time lifting the skirt of the calendar to peep upon the knickers of tomorrow. I apologise. I will leave you to your pre match rituals. I’m off out to brave the weather on my trusty mountain bike and assuming I don’t leave the saddle in an unplanned and deleterious manner I shall return and resume our intercourse down among the wines and spirits. Salut!

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Arsenal – Professional Performance Points Won

Posted by anicoll5 on January 17, 2016 in All Posts

jack-butland-olivier-giroud

Good Evening Positivistas,

Final whistle at the Britannia just blown as I begin to write. Overall I am pleased with not just the point but with the performance. Stoke may have changed their spots under Mr Hughes but there is still that very physical core to their game that, on other cold, Sundays afternoons over the past few seasons, we have not dealt with. A tense final eight minutes I thought when a little careless passing put our goal under threat. After Wednesday I am sure we were all on edge for those final ssssssllllllloooowwww few minutes …….but despite the sensation of time slowing, or even reversing at one point, the end finally came.

Did I mention no one who has won the PL has ever lost at the Britannia in the same season ?

I thought I had.

Who shone and what we did well in the old gold? I thought Nacho was superb today, and the contest between the Spaniard and Walters was between two intelligent, very fit professionals. Any error or weakness would have been pounced on but Nacho concentrated for 93 minutes and I doubt Walters has had as frustrating ninety minutes in front of the baying, toothless mob of home fans in a long time.

The Ox I also think produced the level of performance that has been trying to burst out for a few weeks. He was out creative spring in the middle of the park, loads of energy, winning the ball, turning, twisting, trying to pick out that special ball. Good to watch and it will have given his confidence a boost for sure.

What we did well I thought was control and retain the ball for long periods across midfield. For much of the second half Stoke were pinned back, if the ball was cleared it was quickly recovered and returned. Where we let ourselves down, and perhaps where we missed out German playmaker on the afternoon, was using all that possession in the final third of the pitch, in front of the home side’s goal. We opened Stoke up just once, with Giroud’s shot excellently saved by Butland in the first half. Too often I felt the Stoke defenders had a few seconds to regroup and our threat battered itself against the rocks. It is a defect that will soon be erased with players returning.

Much as it pains me to admit it Shawcross, Peters, Wolfschied etc, and behind them Jack Butland, are a formidable defence. Composed under pressure, even in the second half phase when they were unable to get out of their half. Probably not much to do with the Hughes and the ghost of Pulis rattles his chains loudly.

Less satisfactory this afternoon ? Having clearly made a mug of Wolfschied in the first minute, and attracted referee Pawson’s attention to the defender’s clumsy foul, (and having the elderly and overweight Glenn Johnson in front of him) I settled down to watch Theo make his mark. Wrong Andrew. A couple of useful interventions by Theo later but, on an afternoon which cried out for speed against the Stoke back four, the contribution was not there. ‘In’ occasionally, ‘out’ quite a lot. He was apparently surprised when being substituted. I will be surprised if the boy starts next week, although Chelsea do suffer from theophobia.

Did not see any injuries to our players today. Compared to previous bloodbaths in Staffordshire the violence was tea-party level today.

Two draws and points to match. Not the six, or even the four points, I suspect we all hoped for before the kick off on Wednesday. Nevertheless back to the top of the pile again. A good week off to rest and recuperate.

Enjoy what is left of your Sunday.

 

 

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Arsenal Versus Stoke: Keep Buggering On

Posted by steww on January 17, 2016 in All Posts

I’m taking part in something called the six week challenge. It happens every year and the local radio station, of which my show is a small part, is an enthusiastic participant. The joy for me has always been that they start the thing in November and I am therefore ready equipped with an excuse. November is, as any fule kno, National Novel Writing Month and I am a fully signed up member of NANOWRIMO and as such cannot contemplate any other shenanigans be they two, four, or six weeks in duration.

So they moved it to January. Given it’s all to do with promoting health and well being that was always the obvious time of year for it really. Shorn of my usual excuse and feeling tender having just listened to a particularly beautiful Nick Cave ballad the station chief caught me at a vulnerable moment and signed me up.

I’ve gone for a cycling based fitness programme spread over six weeks with ever increasing distances to be covered. Sounded doable on paper so I was pretty relaxed and completed the first week without a problem. On Friday I started week three and that all too familiar feeling of the mid season blues has set in. Last night I struggled out into the icy wind to pedal my six mile quota and it would be toying with the truth to suggest I enjoyed myself. Now, I know I’m not a professional athlete – this won’t come as a huge surprise to anyone who has ever caught sight of me illuminated by the light of the fridge in the wee small hours – and as such I appreciate there is a certain looseness to the parallel I am about to draw.

All I could think as I wheezed along the old Fosse Way, during those moments when thought surfaced through the thumping, gasping crash of my pulse, was how the middle bit of any endeavour is always the hardest. The trough from which we fear we may never emerge. It is the time the novel doesn’t get written because, well, who the hell will ever read it? Who cares? Why am I bothering? It is the time the fitness regime seems suddenly unnecessarily fascistic and who the hell am I trying to fool anyway, I’ll never do this. It is the Wednesday in the week of our adventure when last weekend is a stale memory and the next one too far away to contemplate.

I felt a certain kinship with the Arsenal boys who got tonked at St Mary’s. With the side that just couldn’t quite withstand the Anfield barrage on Wednesday but held on bravely for at least a point. I have nothing but admiration for the sportsmen who can dig deepest when the exuberance and novelty of August has burned away and the adrenaline of the run in is far off into the future. The raw, flayed skin of their ambition laid bare to the biting winter winds, they refuse to allow themselves to doubt that they will overcome and somehow find the strength to carry on. To raise themselves up on stepping stones of their dead selves as the poet Tennyson was so fond of saying and, as he wasn’t, to keep buggering on.

I drew much inspiration from these thoughts and stripped six seconds from my personal best time for one section of the ride, showing that just when the night seems darkest there is always a glimmer for those prepared to look hard enough. For others the light becomes ever more difficult to see. Leicester City, for example, seem to be finding the trough difficult to negotiate. Our friend Double Canister shared a Squawka stat which read “Riyad Mahrez and Jamie Vardy have both failed to score or assist a goal in five consecutive Premier League games”. I know the Foxes are still in contention, I am not writing them off, far from it, they are after all at the top of the pile right now, but not long ago they were rolling like a runaway loco and just lately the boiler seems to have sprung a few leaks.

This is the time our manager and his vast experience come to the fore. This is the time seeing Alexis and Tomáš Rosický knocking at the door marked selection warms the cockles. George described it as the cavalry coming and that, for an old geezer like me brought up on Bonanza and The High Chaparral, had the ring of truth. Coquelin, Welbeck and Wilshere are reported to be back in training and there’s a new kid on the block who will be eager to impress.

I confess I had a wobble as the injuries piled up back at the end of last Autumn. How on earth shall we negotiate November, December and January and remain remotely in contention given such a catalogue of disasters? This is why I was so appalled that folk were attacking the manager and players after we drew with Liverpool. We were at the top of the table during the toughest part of the campaign with a team staggering from one fixture to the next praying no one else got hurt. I’d have been happy to be in fourth with the leaders still in sight given how many changes Arsène has been forced to make, how many players he’s been obliged to pick despite illness and fatigue. Instead of which we are one win away from regaining the top spot. Things might be a whole lot worse than that.

Now comes the tricky part. After a tough encounter with Liverpool we face another difficult away trip. Stoke have always provided us with a challenge. Last season they produced a stunning start to the equivalent fixture and left us all reeling. In recent times  our record in the Potteries in all competitions is L, L, W, L, D, D, L, L. One might be excused for finding this extremely uncomfortable reading. Especially given how much we would love to win today.

There are indications that we will face a different kind of Stoke team. That the years of kicking their opponents into submission with the full and frank approval of the match officials are a thing of the past. Stokelona is being bandied about and the one time I’ve watched them this season they were indeed passing and moving in a very impressive fashion. I wonder if they’ll regress given that record against us. I wonder if Mark Hughes has the guts to ask them to continue trying to out pass and out play the opposition. If so it will make for an intriguing spectacle. A genuine football match decided, perhaps, in favour of the better team. Imagine that. In their last six Premier League matches they’ve beaten Man United comfortably and got the better of a seven goal encounter with Everton at Goodison. On their last outing they won easily against Norwich and they’ve lost the other two against an out of form Palace and a struggling West Brom.

I get deja vu every time I write these things. You simply cannot learn anything from looking at recent form. Every team has so many rogue results, beating sides you don’t expect them to and dropping supposedly easier points. The best thing we can do is hope Mr Hughes has the courage of his convictions and opts for a footballing encounter today. That our lads will be buoyed up at the prospect of the Seventh Cavalry pounding over the hill, and that they can draw strength from the knowledge that the mid season trough is behind them.

Can we do it? Damn right we can. Will it be easy? I very much doubt it. One thing is certain, my belief in the squad, the manager and the club as a whole has never been stronger and win lose or draw that will not change. What Arsenal fan could possibly say otherwise?

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Arsenal: Examination taken and passed

Posted by anicoll5 on January 14, 2016 in All Posts

lear-007

Dzǎo-anh Positivistas,

Sky and BT often blather on about the “superior quality/best in the world etc” of the Premier League with no apparent justification but in terms of entertainment that was a great contest last night. Congratulations to both teams and both managers for putting on a spectacle that gripped from the first whistle to the final seconds. Action packed, end-to-end. You name the cliché, this game had it. Technically the football was probably no better than 7/10 but whatever the game lacked in precision it made up for in sweat and a mutual desperation to finish ahead. Even the foul weather added to the drama !

Of the players in old gold picking out names from such an intense match is difficult, but I shall try. There may still be one or two out their purporting a knowledge of football who have their doubts about Joel Campbell but last night he stamped his excellence on the game with two beautifully weighted and directed passes for the opening and third goals. When Joel was not the creator he was tirelessly working, tracking, running, tackling and putting himself about. I get the impression he is a lot “tougher” than two months ago, much, much harder to knock off the ball, much quicker back on his feet. His combination with young Hector has flowered in recent weeks, and last night they presented with an unstoppable combination on our right flank.

The second name out of the hat must be Olivier Giroud. To lead the line against two large centre backs away from home is no easy task. The Frenchman had to content himself with scraps in the opening, but from those meagre pickings he made a tasty meal for first Aaron, then provided the deftest of flicks to leave the Liverpool keeper embarrassed as we pulled back level for the second time. Olivier’s goal in the 53rd minute was the pick of the night, and could be one of the best he ever scores in his career. Perfectly engineered movement to turn, to strike the ball and to place the shot into the far corner. Magnifique young man.

Olivier at Anfield

Of the home side I thought they were a credit to their club which are words that I could not have uttered on the evidence of their feeble Premier League form and watched them crumple at Vicarage Road a few weeks back. Firmino finally provided a clue as to why he cost almost £30 million in the Summer and while Henderson is the Nissan Micra equivalent to Mesut’s Mercedes Benz the Englishmen ploughed up and down all night to some effect.

What is perhaps baffling is Klopp’s reliance on Simon Mignolet who I thought should have done much better with two of our goals. And his cack-handedness is hardly a one off is it? The Belgian has made error after error in games for the Merseyside club ever since his arrival. In a world where league tables based upon snatches of data dominate could anyone direct me to the one which lists goalkeepers graded on points costing errors ? Mignolet would surely have dominated that unwanted competition season after season. By way of cross reference to the Liverpool keeping puzzle I checked Pepe Reina’s age. He is younger than Petr Cech. Nice one Brendan.

Overall a fair result, a point apiece on a night when had either side lost it would have been a cruel ending for such endeavour.

A test for our title credentials last night which we passed, another to come.

Onwards to the Potteries on Sunday and I am sure we are expecting another rollicking ( I think that is the word I am looking for ?) contest at the hands and probably the gloves of Sparky’s men.

Enjoy your Thursday.

 

 

 

 

 

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Arsenal Versus Liverpool: Tuning Up The Orchestra

Posted by steww on January 13, 2016 in All Posts

Our little break from the long mountainous climb to the Premier League summit didn’t last long. A quick kick about on the plateau which is the FA Cup third round with hard working but ultimately out classed, out passed, out manoeuvred and out scored Sunderland and we are back onto the steep slopes. We travel to Anfield to face a Liverpool side against whom, by my calculations, we are two points down. How so? Well I think we did enough to beat them at our place when they last visited and as such a home draw left us smarting. It would be rather nice to get those points back tonight and despite their struggles against Exeter I doubt it will be an easy task.

Liverpool at Anfield is never to be taken lightly whatever their recent form and like many teams they will raise their game when we are in town. There is much being made of the mutual respect between the managers and I’m quite happy about that. Far too much hot air is wasted attempting to raise up the mean minded, low brow abuse and petty school yard insults trotted out by certain coaches. Too much ink spilled trying to convince a gullible public that such pathetic barbs constitute ‘mind games’ or some sort of clever psychology. I’m much happier to hear that Herr Klopp’s opinion of Arsène just keeps going up and up. Much is also being made of the results between the two managers all of which have occurred in Champion’s League matches between Arsenal and Dortmund. I’m not entirely convinced that there is much relevance here as the German side were settled, familiar with their manager’s tactics and style of play and to a large part chosen for their ability to work well within his chosen structure.

Since arriving on Merseyside Jürgen Norbert has faced the usual challenges of jumping into a new set up with new playing staff and with the season already under way. He has also been beset with injury problems exacerbating his desire to get his team playing his preferred brand of heavy metal football. I certainly don’t think it’s fair to judge him until he’s had a lot more time to build his own squad and instil his methodology. Having said all that he was unbeaten in his first six games in charge and under his watchful eye Liverpool have beaten Chelsea and Man City and absolutely hammered Southampton. The Ethiad result was perhaps the most eye catching but in such a topsy turvy unpredictable season who can say? Losing to Watford, Crystal Palace and Newcastle while stuffing the filthy rich Oil City and beating high flying Leicester is kind of par for the course these days.

So as you’ve probably guessed I’m delivering my well worn ‘anything can happen’ sermon on this clear and crisp Wednesday morning.

Despite that horrible and quickly forgotten blemish down at St Mary’s we sit atop the current form table. Taken over the previous six outings there are five green squares all with a nice plump W inside them. Liverpool’s inconsistency is on the other hand more frenetic than ours and laid bare by the same table which shows them losing three, drawing one and winning the remaining two.

If I was a Liverpool fan, and I do know a couple, I’d be most concerned about the defence. King Kolo looked lost when we tore into them at The Emirates last season. Unable to cope with our pace and invention he was, if not actually a liability, then certainly bypassed with ease on more than one occasion. He nearly gifted us a goal in the fifth minute but in fairness responded quickly to clear the danger after his keeper parried Aaron Ramsey’s shot. I highlight Kolo as he is nearly a year older now and pulled up with what looked like cramp recently making him doubtful for this game. If he doesn’t start Liverpool’s new signing Steven Caulker could make his début.

I’d hope either an ageing or makeshift centre back pairing would provide a splendid playground for Theo to dance through and Mesut to weave his magic threads in and around but of course I am not manager of Arsenal and there is no guarantee Theo will even start. With Ox showing signs of getting over his injury lay off and Campbell little short of a revelation our patched up squad has actually played itself into the kind of form where Arsène has, if not selection headaches, then at least selection mild discomfort. Our skipper is back from the dead and back in the mix, Calum Chambers has looked a little raw but has acquitted himself very well in midfield and Mathieu Flamini, much to the chagrin of the transfer junkies and haters, hasn’t put a foot wrong.

Will Arteta and Flamini play at the base of the midfield à la the Santi / Coquelin axis and allow Aaron to reprise his more attacking role starting nominally on the wing but drifting all over the pitch and creating havoc in the opposition defence? If so who misses out? Or has Aaron now convinced Arsène of his credentials running from deep, or does the ‘Ox through the middle’ experiment continue? Isn’t it nice to have such conundrums? Is the plural of conundrum actually conundra? We live in an uncertain world and must learn to accept that there are some things we simply cannot know and much we cannot control.

Speaking of the Lazarus like return of our forgotten heroes, I turned to Arsenal.com in an idle moment yesterday to be greeted by the heart warming sight of a photograph of Tomáš Rosický. The diminutive maestro was in bib and gloves and darting between training mannequins in much the same way as he darts through Spurs defenders. It was a vision for me. There are plenty of arguments among Arsenal fans and one of the myths about this blog is that we discourage and actively stifle debate. Nothing could be farther from the truth. Many is the time we like to argue over who is Arsenal’s best or most creative or most important player. Which was the best goal, who is better in any given position. For me the whole best player debate is a little disingenuous as we aren’t really saying player x is better than player y, we are actually saying player x is my favourite.

Doesn’t matter if Mesut can glide past opposition midfielders as if they’ve been turned to stone and pass better than Koscielny, because he can’t do what Kos can. Similarly stick Mesut in goal and Petr behind the centre forward and we’d be in trouble. So I prefer the debate over who are our favourite players at the club. For me right now it is Tomáš . Has been for years in fact. I love plenty of the others of course but our number seven makes me smile with his audacity, ebullience, enthusiasm, invention and his style. He is at the stage of his career where he has nothing to prove to anybody and has all the experience he needs to draw on for any given situation. I hope he will be back as soon as possible, it’s a shame he isn’t adding to the selection problems this evening, but as he enters the twilight of a cruelly foreshortened Arsenal career he can be absolutely vital to the latter half of our season.

Don’t expect me to be too rational about the club I support, don’t expect me to predict victory every week. Do expect me to turn a blind eye to the mistakes of my favourites and to glory in every little thing they do well. I want those two points back tonight but most of all I want to be around to enjoy a glorious swansong from our own little Mozart.

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Arsenal Should Win The Title Says The Data

Posted by R. Green on January 11, 2016 in All Posts

premier-league-trophy

How often do we hear the old cliché “football is all about emotion”? While this may be used to explain the wild swings in opinions and attitudes of pre and even pubescent supporters of Arsenal Football Club, it can in no way excuse such conduct by the mainstream media as well as other opinion-leaders (bloggers, podcasters, etc) who pound the Arsenal beat in both print and electronic media. It took me a while in adult life to understand that exploiting emotions has been a longstanding practice of politicians and their stenographers in the media, who see a gullible, ignorant public as vital in maintaining their power and dominion over us. How else could they implement and sustain policies that are alien to the interests of the majority.

I apply the same paradigm to Arsenal-football as I do to current affairs. Four months ago, only four games into the season, after eking out a 0:1 victory over Newcastle, the mainstream-media went into hyperdrive with doom and gloom.

Alan Shearer, now a Match-of-the-Day supremo, opined:
“Not hard to judge Arsenal. They need a top class center forward.”

Danny Mills, Shearer’s frequent sideman on the Beeb, was equally prophetic:
“Arsenal are going to struggle this season.”

Arash Heckmat, who covered the game for the Mirror, had a gloomy narrative:
“There are still big question marks over Arsenal….”

Admittedly the Gunners did not have the best of start to the season. After 4 games they had scored three (3) and conceded three (3). Arsene admitted before the Newcastle game that performances had been “very average.”

In comparison Manchester City was on fire. Four games, four victories, scoring 10 goals (2.5 goals per game) and zero (0) goals conceded. Manchester City’s official twitter account bragged:
“City break club record with tenth consecutive league victory!”

Similarly, the media was blowing City’s trumpet. With the exception of DeBruyne, they had by that time done everything Wenger was later made infamous for apparently neglecting, i.e. making a massive spend on outfield players:
Sterling – £49M
Mangala – £32M
Delph – £8M
Otamendi – £33M
DeBruyne – £54.5M

That, girls and boys, adds up to a cool £176.5 million to supplement an already expensive squad containing the likes of Aguero, Silva, Toure and Kompany to name a few. Given such massive spending by our main title rival, on what is generally accepted are quality players, how can the media now say with any credibility that the quality of the Premier League is less than normal? Is it any coincidence that such a thesis gets traction because Arsenal are now top of the table due to the manager standing by the quality of his squad and refusing to spend wildly? Similarly, we currently have media whore and club parasite Piers Morgan flogging the meme that the FA Cup is no longer a big trophy conveniently after Arsenal has won it twice in succession and showing a strong commitment to winning it three in a row.

But I digress. Going back to late August-early September the MSM had established a narrative that big spending City was well on the way to smashing all before them and Arsenal was going to struggle. Some of us amateur bloggers, including yours truly, refused to drink the kool-ade. I said in my September blog:
“As with City and goal scoring, it is questionable whether this level can be sustained over the season given it is relatively the same midfield over the past 2-3 years.”

Since then they have gone from 2.5 to 1.95 Goals  per game compared to a 3-year average of 2.2. Most importantly they are leaking goals, from a statistical impossible 0 GA per game to 1.05 which is above their 3-yr average of 0.96. Talk about being brought back to earth with a thud.

As for Arsenal, after reviewing the statistics, I tried to convince my readers that far from dying, Arsenal was very much alive and based on immediate past history would soon get the results that would put the club in title-winning contention. The proof is clearly in the pudding; four months later we are now top of the table.

After 20 games, relying solely on descriptive statistics, I have come to the conclusion that the club is doing well but is still under-performing in some key areas. The figures suggest it is reasonable to expect improved performances in the second half of the season but not as dramatic as between games 4 and 20. I will use the following series of graphs to make my point. Note that the information used is publicly available at Squawka.com and I have compiled the data and color coded the information as follows:
Red: 3-yr Average
Amber: 4-week Average (1st 4-weeks of 2015-16 EPL season)
Green : 20-week Average (1st 20-weeks of 2015-16 EPL season)

Graphic #1: Goals For Per Game

Goals For

It was not long ago, for weeks after Newcastle, there was virtual panic inside and outside the Arsenalsphere because the club had stumbled out of the box with a mere 0.75 Goals Scored per game. Two competing narratives were “Giroud could never lead Arsenal to a title” and “Walcott could never be a central striker.” Even though the club had a three-year average of 1.85 goals per game with the mostly same combo,  instead of concluding that the scoring rate  was an extreme aberration, MSM-bloggers-podcasters in general instead chose to incite fans into demanding a new world-class striker. Four months later, with Giroud (10-goals) leading the way, AFC is scoring at an average of 1.7 goals per game and seemingly destined to meet our usual standard.

Graphic #2: Chances per Game

20 Chances per game

This is one metric that was simply off the charts at the end of August; AFC was creating an average of 16.25 chances per game compared to the prior three-year average of 11.71. The team has now regressed closer to the mean but clearly at a higher rate than previous years. Seems it is the Özil effect.

Graphic #3: Conversion Rate

20 Conversion rate

This picture speaks more than a thousand words. Historically AFC converts chances at a near 16% clip and after Newcastle the MSM and its echo-chamber went into emotional overdrive as the team stumbled at 5%. It begs the question how could the media and their lemmings project that a top club like Arsenal would sustain such a low rate. Sixteen games later they are converting at 14%, just about 2% off the 3-year standard. As for that lamp-post Giroud, he is knocking them in at 20.9%. In comparison, Aguero, almost everybody’s PL benchmark, when fit manages 24.1% and Lewandowski, arguably Europe’s best striker, is at 20.3%.

Graphic #4: Shot Accuracy

20 Shot Accuracy

The shot accuracy story is similar to conversion rate already discussed. Interestingly there is a perfect equivalence with Giroud’s shot accuracy at 50%, as measured by Squawka, compared to the club’s. Is there a statistician willing to do a correlation coefficient (“r”)? That is beyond the scope of this blog but it should make an interesting line of inquiry for those who need confirmation of Giroud’s current importance to the club.

Graphic #5: Goals Against Per Game

20 Games AgainstFinally, graphic #5 demonstrates that while AFC was unable to sustain a miserly 0.75 Goals Against after four games, the club is defending even better than it did in prior years, only conceding  at 0.9 goals per game compared to 1 gpg. In a game of small margins, if that rate is sustained until May, the club would concede only 34 goals over the season. That would best any of the recent season’s efforts, practically Chelsea-esque who in the past three seasons conceded an average of 33.

From the data above, with no further injuries and some key players returning from the sick-bay, it is clear that Arsenal has the capacity to improve in all the key metrics that indicate success. The only exception I would make are those crazy Chance Creation numbers. Goal-scoring, in particular, I am convinced that with Alexis(soon returning to fitness), Giroud, Theo and Ramsey meeting their average numbers plus an improving Campbell, I can easily see us getting back to that 1.85 average. That means 36 more goals in 18 matches or 2 goals per match. Given our ability to hold teams to an average of one goal per game, such goal-scoring and defending is title winning form.

In the same breadth it must be recognized that that City has the capacity to sustain a high performance level and win the title. Those attacking players they signed are not chopped liver. It is well chronicled that their defending is the problem. Mangala and Otamendi must be an example of the biggest waste of £65 million by a football club, and an indictment of the mantra that a club must pay over the odds to improve their league position. Setting aside their profligacy, the data below clearly shows if MCFC can improve their goal scoring and defending even marginally they could be a real force.

MCFC 3-Yr Avg 4 Games 20 Games
GF per Game 2.20 2.50 1.95
Chances Per Game 12.40 11.75 13
Conversion Rate 16% 17% 15%
Shot Accuracy 48% 60% 52%
GA per Game 0.96 0 1.05

But my focus is Arsenal, not City. I am concerned that the media narrative is settling for the sentiment that Arsenal will win the title. I must emphasize that in the prediction business, media sentiment is a contrary-indicator. Their standard procedure is to assume that the most recent results are a predictor of future performance. To the contrary, any serious student of the social sciences  would have learnt that historical consistency is the only reliable indicator of future success. No wonder Arsene Wenger emphasizes consistency for himself and his teams. With clearly inferior squads during the barren years his teams were among the top 3 or 4, never less. In the past three years he has been able to acquire better players, and as evident by 2015 statistics (AFC being the team that earned most points in the calendar year), we can predict with a reasonable degree of certainty that with better quality players, Arsene’s team will either meet or exceed their 3-year average.

As I concluded four months ago: “Unlike the media, which thrives on emotion, in the silent statistical world, there are no headlines. There are no narratives. No excuses. No hope and no despair. Just data.” And that data suggests Arsenal has done well and will do better.

May cannot come too soon for me to see how right or wrong I am.

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Arsenal – Black Cat Episode 2

Posted by anicoll5 on January 10, 2016 in All Posts

 

OLYMPUS DIGITAL CAMERA

OLYMPUS DIGITAL CAMERA

Hyvää huomenta Positivistas,

I admit I anticipated problems this morning in producing anything vaguely readable or fresh about yesterday’s game. Different competion to the 4th December but same score, same result, almost the same players, same one-eyed nonsense from Sam Allardyce about how his side deserved “more” from the game, same weather, same bloody goal-scorers for Gawd’s sake….Ok Ok, Lee Cattermole was not booked but could I weave 600 words from such a handful of limp straw ? …………… What is an artist to do ??!

Well like all the truly greats when faced with a blank canvas I go out and steal.

And my choice of burglary victim was “A Love Supreme” the biggest and, it seemed to me, the most sophisticated of Sunlun fan sites. Those Mackems and their match report did not disappoint;

“Sunderland lost 3-1 away to Arsenal in a game where we were undone by a side with far more quality in their ranks. An early goal from Jermain Lens gave the travelling fans hope, but three great goals from Arsenal saw us eliminated from the FA Cup at the first hurdle.”

“Sam Allardyce had explicitly stated he would name a team of youngsters down at Arsenal, partly down to our league position, but also down to the horrendous fixture congestion which we’d been conned into, having to play three games just days apart. Whether he had a change of heart, or it was just mind games, that wasn’t how the starting XI ended up, at all.”

I could not have put it better myself, saved all that tedious crowing about us being clearly the better side. (Using a word like “explicitly” about Fat Sam’s pronouncements is also ‘cutting edge’ in my view). Describing the second half they went on to say;

“Their passing was very impressive, and the pace in which they played seemed too sophisticated for us.”

“It was almost deja vu the way Arsenal worked their way in for the second goal — passing, moving, and scoring goals is obviously something they’re proficient in, unfortunately we wouldn’t know anything about that, ourselves”

And for all our readers interested in the topic of refereeing A Love Supreme’s commentator added this pithy observation;

“Arsenal should have scored again after Giroud was played through on goal. He was brought down by Deandre Yedlin, who just full-on charged into him. It was a definite penalty, but the ref wasn’t having it. Hilarious. Not very often those decisions go our way, and what a waste of a time to cash that in. The game is already gone!”

 Such painfully honest writing deserves to be read in its whole excruciating sequence of revelation and self torture. It is the sheer truthfulness that gets me. (I’m welling up here) I attach a link at the bottom of the page.

As I say I think they have it spot on. We were far superior from minute one to minute ninety three. We found it difficult to score a second and really get a solid grip on the game but the introduction of Aaron and Mikel raised the pace of our attacking game in the final third and the quality of our passing just above the level that Sunlun could cope with. The outcome after that was pretty much inevitable.

Pats on the back for Joel and young Alex Iwobi, the Ox was much livelier and even Theo was much more involved. Chambers is growing into his job in midfield, bit erratic but loads of energy. And don’t forget Cech. What saves Petr had to make where performed in a manner that made the difficult look common-place, a trait of all great keepers.

If I was looking for areas of improvement I thought we looked a little edgy in the centre of defence to the high ball and Fetcher caused us a few problems. I expect Per will be back for Anfield as instead of the ageing Fletcher it will be Benteke swooping through the air six yards out.

Enjoy your Sunday and roll on Wednesday.

http://www.a-love-supreme.com/Match%20Reports/matcharsenalawaycup.htm

 

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Arsenal Versus Sunderland: Sparkling Near The Brim

Posted by steww on January 9, 2016 in All Posts

1 FA Cup

Is it just me or does it seem an awfully long time ago that we last had a game of footy to contemplate? I suspect the schedule of one match every twenty minutes which we experience over the Christmas and New Year holiday acclimatises us to a more frantic agenda. Combine that with the ominous creak that is the transfer window being dragged open and we are in the kind of territory which kept Isaac Newton up chewing his pencil to a stub all hours of the night.

During the festive period time speeds up to an amphetamine insanity with exhausted teams staggering punch drunk onto the turf having barely had chance to get their kit dry in time for the next fixture. Vic Akers and his minions must have a bloody nightmare in the laundry room while the rest of us are carolling and making with the crackers and paper crowns. Then, without the opportunity to as much as change gear, we are plunged into January.

Each minute of this benighted month is like a long drawn out dental procedure. Time slows to a glutinous crawl as people spend their every waking hour discussing the most pointless and boring topic known to man. Transfers. Players who they don’t know (and occasionally some they do) and whether and for how much they might or might not leave their current clubs. Mind rupturing conversational tedium, flowing with glacially sluggish momentum throughout the internet and, I imagine, in the pubs and work places.

The dislocating effect of relativity turns my senses reeling and I can quite see why Sir Isaac got into such a lather about the whole thing. It will, in fact, have been a week since we last played. A performance which while not quite as bad as some would have us believe was nonetheless pretty turgid in patches. My experience, and my gut feeling, is that a side freshened up with a couple of new faces and after enjoying a full seven days of monopoly and table tennis ought to present a different proposition. The team which sweated and stumbled its way to the narrowest of victories against Newcastle should have revived sufficiently to put up a spirited defence of our cup.

Make no mistake this competition is ours to lose and everybody else’s to win. We are not simply the holders (or ‘champions’ as we are being encouraged, for no obvious reason, to say these days) but the most successful club in the history of the oldest football competition in the world. Our manager shares, along with George Ramsey, the position of the most prosperous manager in the competition. With no disrespect to the esteemed Mr Ramsey who’s most recent victory came, after all, in 1920, we can state without fear of contradiction that Arsène has enjoyed greater success in the FA Cup than any other manager in the modern era. Although I suppose that depends on when you date such a nebulous period of recent history. Gosh, time is a dodgy subject for a scientific illiterate like myself to get involved with isn’t it?

I shall draw a veil over the vagaries of temporal inexactitude and move swiftly along to assessing today’s opponents. Managed by the pugnacious, pug faced old warhorse that is ‘Big’ Sam Allardyce, Sunderland will be, as Arsène informed the slavering asylum escapees at his press conference, well organised and well motivated. This is especially true when one considers that the cup represents the only realistic opportunity for an open topped bus ride along the banks of the Wear in four months time.

Knock out competitions can throw up remarkable results. We all have our favourite memories from Hereford to Colchester, Wimbledon to Bournemouth – there is something for everyone. One of my happiest FA Cup afternoons was provided by today’s opposition. To be precise it was Bob Stokoe’s merry men, the 1973 incarnation of Sunderland, who pulled off a hugely unlikely Wembley win against the universally reviled Leeds United. We have also been on the receiving end of some horror shows in the Cup upon which I have no desire to dwell here today. My point is that given the propensity for surprising results in such competitions there is perhaps little to be gained from too close an examination of current form.

On the other hand I have a reputation for long winded seemingly never ending blogs to uphold around here, so with that in mind let us examine the current form of today’s opposition. Sunderland were convincing winners in their most recent fixture. That is just about as positive as it gets for the Black Cats I’m afraid. The win may have been by a comfortable three goals to one but it came at the expense of Aston Villa. Let’s be honest here. If Positively Arsenal put a team together tomorrow we’d fancy our chances of getting a result at Villa Park. Prior to that match Sunderland had lost five on the bounce and only Villa’s abject plight prevents the Wearsiders from being the bookies favourites to be entertaining the likes of Preston, Reading and Forest next season.

Granted we have blown hot and cold lately ourselves, but honestly, magic of the cup aside, we ought to have enough to get the job done today. This is realistic, positive observation. Not hubris, not over confidence and certainly not disdain for Premier League opposition. I know that none of us here are guilty of entertaining such deadly sins and we all know the players won’t be either.

The only circumstance I can imagine which might derail our defence of our trophy today is too many changes, such as those witnessed in the League Cup exit in Sheffield. While Arsène hinted in his press conference that he might rest Mesut but not Theo, I fear that the multiple change, over rotation junkies among you might be in for ‘little bit disappointment’ today. I certainly hope so. The frankly fanciful line ups I’ve seen bandied about (including I might add one which featured a player who has no connection to our club beyond that dreamt up by a journalist – shame on you) are no more than footballing suicide notes made up of player’s names.

I expect some rotation but more along the lines of Kieran, Ospina, Chambers and Ox than a sudden influx of youth teamers. But then we don’t do silly speculation here do we? Instead of second guessing the manager, let’s take a leaf out of his book and just take this thing one game at a time. The likelihood of any team winning the same trophy three seasons in succession are historically remote, statistically unlikely and extraordinarily difficult even for a great club like ours to contemplate. On the other hand we start each third round match with the precisely the same chance of winning at Wembley as every other club. So while we are realistic, and while we know we should look no farther than ninety minutes against Sunderland, it doesn’t hurt to dream just a little, does it?

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Arsenal Players and Management – Analysed !

Posted by pedantic George @arseblagger on January 6, 2016 in All Posts

arse squad

Well, it’s a new year and I think that’s a good time to look at the squad and management. So let’s analyse them individually through my expert eyes.

Petr Čech

A Chelsea back up player that showed us all we need to know when he threw in two during our first league game against West Ham. In the twilight of his career but I suppose he is better than the alternatives.

Davis Ospina

The less said about this dwarf keeper the better. I mean, he can’t even catch a ball and nearly saw us out of the Champion’s League.

Mathieu Debuchy

That he was still playing for Newcastle at 29 years of age says it all. Now he can’t even get a place on the substitutes bench. He won’t fight for his place because he is weak minded.

Laurent Koscielny

Was plucked from obscurity when we should have been buying Samba. Turns his back on driven balls and has a horrible habit of going to ground in the box, a penalty waiting to happen in every game.

Kieran Gibbs 

When he is ever fit to play his positioning is useless. He can run quite fast but offers little when he gets to where he is running. Only makes the squad because of the home grown rule.

Nacho Monreal

Yet another bargain basement buy. He is a liability. Poor defender by any measure. Worst of all he looks like Peter Crouch.

Per Mertesacker

This guy has the turning circle of a battleship. He is six foot five and can hardly get off the ground, midgets beat him in the air. Quite assured on the ball when he eventually passes it, after allowing the opponents to get back into shape.

Calum Chambers

Honestly, I don’t even know what this kid is supposed to be. We have tried him at right back, centre half and defensive midfield and he has failed to impress anywhere. £16 million down the drain? I ask you.

Gabriel

Another cheap option. Total madman,he couldn’t even see what Costa was up to! Reasonable back up but no more. You get what you pay for, I suppose.

Hector Bellerin

This lad looks like a prospect, but no way should he be learning on the job at our great club. Barca didn’t want him so that perhaps should tell us what we need to know. Not big enough to defend his post. Still, he is lightning fast and might make a good winger some day.

Tomáš Rosický

This ageing perma-crock has played about 10 games in 10 years. Never big and powerful enough to be a proper player in the Premier League. Good on the ball but nothing at the end of if. Runs about like a senile terrier chasing a tennis ball. His days are long gone. Deadwood if ever I saw it.

Aaron Ramsey

The most over-rated player at the club (and that’s saying quite something ). Loses the ball all over the pitch. Obsessed with scoring, the greedy  git. No defensive discipline at all. Vacates the midfield in search of glory. He isn’t even English. Should have been sold into the Championship where he belongs.

Mikel Arteta

Lol. I mean, just lol. He came to us when already past his best, as a replacement for the sensational Cesc Fàbregas, I mean, just as if! !??!! What legs he ever had have gone and he just passes backwards. Captain? He couldn’t lead a dog on a walk. We need a leader of men, not a leader of the conga at an old folks home.

Santiago “Santi” Cazorla González

Moved into midfield because he couldn’t cut it on the wing, where he was bought to play. How can a midget play centre-mid in this league? I suppose we can say he has two good feet, but we need power and pace in midfield and he offers neither.

Jack Wilshere

This lad looked good 6 years ago, but it turns out he is made of glass. Some good close control but just runs into blind alleyways. No longer sure what his best position is, but it should be at another club as we can’t depend on him being fit. Popular with fans because he is a local lad, but is that enough?

Mathieu Flamini

Left us when we needed him and came back when no one wanted him. He was free for a reason. Technically woeful. All he can do is shout and point. A red card waiting to happen too. Never good enough. The rich bastard.

Mesut Özil

Lazy overpriced Muslim flop. Floats about the field like he is out for a jog. Doesn’t think a player like him should track back. Proper big time Charlie, just because his team mates won the World Cup for him. OK, he gets some assists, but he is a passenger the rest of the time. To think we once had Cesc and now we have him. Its disgusting.

Francis Coquelin

Called back in an emergency after several loan spells where he had failed to impress anyone. Very limited player . OK as a back up. We need an upgrade in this position that has been neglected for 10 years. With money in the bank we should be buying a beast, instead we have to put up with a player we were trying to push out of the door.

Alex Oxlade-Chamberlain

Five years since Southampton fleeced us and he has not improved a jot ! He plays out wide and gives us no end product. Spends most of his time looking down at his boots. No goals, no assists, no anything apart from a winning smile.

Olivier Giroud

He is a lamppost. The worst striker to ever lead the line for Arsenal. He is a big lump with the pain threshold of a toddler. Absolutely no pace, when he can be bothered running that is. His flicks lead to a goal once in a blue moon and somehow people think this is OK. Perhaps fans are as infatuated by his good looks as he clearly is? After Wright, Henry, and the wonderful RVP we are stuck with this. Its not right. It just isn’t!

Danny Welbeck

Does he even still play for us any more? A United cast off. No end product.Can play centre forward or on the wing, but when I say “play”?? You know.  If he ever does play again he will offer little.

Theo Walcott

We have been paying him massive wages for almost 10 years now, and for what? He can run fast, but we pay him to play football. After 10 years of doing nothing on the wing he has been shunted to centre forward because everyone else is crap. Goes totally absent for almost all of our games and can only score if he hasn’t got time to shit himself.

Joel Campbell

Yet another one that was half way out of the door before we negligently left ourselves short following another useless transfer window. He will never be good enough. Works hard it has to be said.

Alexis

He is God. The best player since Henry. He is everything a professional player should be. Wonderful beautiful glorious man.  Runs endlessly, tracks back and scores for fun.

Arsène Wenger

Useless at tactics, outdated training methods, stealing £8 million a year. He puts faith in players we all know cant string two games together. Happy with his 4th place ‘trophy’, and he is French. What more can I say WEGNER OUT.

Steve Bould

Nothing more than a yes man for the great dictator. He is allowed to do nothing more than put out the cones.

Stan Kroenke

An owner with no interest in football. Has bought 70% of the club so he can steal money under the pretence of one of his companies doing some imaginary work. Gives the manager free reign to run the club like a holiday camp as long as he gets the Champions League jackpot money.

Ivan Gazidis

Just a spin doctor. Promised us we would like Bayern Munich and we are not. He lied to us.

 

 

 

Now at  this point I feel its only fair to say I’ve never actually seen any of these players play the game. All my insight comes from reading twitter, blogs and listening to podcasts. I am surprised though that given what I’m lead to believe, Arsenal have won back to back FA cups and currently sit on top of the hardest league in the world.

HAPPY NEW YEAR.

 

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Arsenal Didn’t Fail In The Austerity Years

Posted by pedantic George @arseblagger on January 5, 2016 in All Posts
Today a guest post from Muppet. written on New Years day
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