101 Comments

Arsenal: Another Year, Another Wexit?

 

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Greetings Positivistas! Whether we like it or not our football holiday is almost over.  The Arsenal troops are reassembling, there is the smell of gunpowder, canons are being cleaned, occasional explosions are being heard; a clear signal that the competitive battle in the EPL is about to resume.

OK my metaphors may be overblown but today’s game with RC Lens is the definitive sign that the 2016-17 season is almost upon us. Hard to believe that in four weeks 8-9 months of annual football warfare will resume.

While some of us may have been somnolent during this holiday winter, the outside world has been awash with dramatic events which in my opinion will eventually have some impact on our footballing lives.  Chief among them was the BREXIT, a subject which was very precious to many of us on this blog. Despite the temptation, unlike President Obama, I decided against offering an opinion since I am not a Briton and won’t have to live with the consequences.

But the thing that struck me most during and after the referendum is how similar it was to the annual WEXIT we Arsenal fans have had to live through, at least for the past five years. The evidence is abundant.

By 2011, six years had passed since the club had last won a meaningful trophy. After the shock defeat in the League Cup final to Birmingham City, of all the clubs, the unimaginable became apparent. After years of disparaging other club supporters for being fickle and reactive to short term results our fans begun to publicly question the future of their most successful manager.  This was reflected in the mainstream media when CNN’s Ben Wyatt wrote a piece published April 25, 2011 under the headline: Has Time Run Out For Arsene Wenger

“There will be calls for the Wenger tenure to end, for the man who delivered so much to be deposed now his Midas touch has seemingly vanished.”

Later that October, one Mirti Murunj writing for a publication Run Of Play opined that:

“No philosophy, not even the most transformative, should go on forever”

The shit was really to hit the fan at the beginning of the 2011-12 season when Barcelona finally completed its 2-year seduction of Cesc Fabregas and Samir Nasri’s half season goal explosion the previous season was to see him succumb to Sheik Mansour ad Manchester City poking big bills in his garter belt. As Wenger himself was forced to admit, Arsenal could no longer count itself as a big club when it was losing its best players to bigger clubs. Arguably the nadir of the season, exposing how much the club was weakened, was the 8-2 shellacking by Manchester United. The Arsenal Action blog pulled no punches and declared “Wenger Out”. Sounds familiar?

Unlike the BREXIT, despite five years of incessant campaigning by a noisy, whiny, self entitled minority of Arsenal fans who are enabled by the mainstream media, the annual WEXIT has been unsuccessful. Last Spring when I made my first ever trip to the Emirates, I witnessed the last desperate and eventually futile attempt to conduct an in-stadium referendum. As we all know, Wenger was the clear winner forcing even that noisy anti-Arsene celebrity phone hacker, Piers Morgan to concede defeat.

Despite never falling out of the top-four in his twenty years at the club (unlike United, Chelsea, City and Liverpool) and his prudence in running the club despite an era of the greatest ever financial excesses, exemplified by United’s willingness to pay over £100 million to buy-back a player they released on a free only four years earlier, the upcoming season will see more desperate attempts to unseat Arsene.  The Daily Cannon’s Helen Trantum  on Jube 24, 2016 did not express whether she was for Leave or Remain but the headline of her blog was very telling:

“Can we have a referendum on Arsene?”

But the sage of Dublin is taking no chances. He has been stirring up his massive following with portents of doom simply because Ivan Gazidis had the temerity to make an empirical observation in an exclusive interview with ESPN FC:

“The big clubs can’t financially bully the smaller clubs in the way they used to, so I think a lot of the differentiators between clubs become more subtle now,”

“It’s how well you can identify talent. It’s how well you can develop talent. It’s how strong your club philosophy is. It’s how together you are as a football club, what your support services are like in the medical field, fitness, analytics, psychology. All of these things become differentiators.”

As said in the past, the sage usually speaks out of two sides of his mouth and today’s blog was no different. While in the past attacking other clubs spending massive amounts of money on mediocre players and praising Leicester City for defying conventional wisdom by proving you can win the League without spending massive amounts of money, he proceeds to deliver the following howler:

“Look, I’m all for a bit of common sense in a world gone mad, but isn’t the message we get from Gazidis indicative of what frustrates people about this club? We have an absolute fortune at our disposal to use to buy players to make the team better and more competitive – yet the Chief Executive is focusing on clubs who can spend more, and citing a once-off fluke season from a team who will never win the league again as a model for success.”

But inevitably the target had to be Wenger, all others are collateral damage:

It’s not about what other clubs do with their cash, it’s about what we do with ours, but we know that Arsene Wenger is a man obsessed with value.  

WTF you may ask? Isn’t the interview with Ivan Gazidis? Isn’t he the boss, the chief executive? Clearly not, if you go by the sage of Dublin.

Strap yourselves in boys and girls, the fun has just begun.

377 Comments

Fans Take New Signing Badly ! What’s New?

So ,Arsene Wenger is proven right once again – nothing new there says you ?

Last season the malcontents took umbridge when AW said, when discussing how LCFC were able to sign the likes of Mahrez and Kante, despite the big clubs having the exact same scouting info on both players, that a section of Arsenal fans would react negatively if AFC bought a player for £400k, that they did not want to see an unknown signed.
The malcontents told us this was bollocks, yet look at the reaction of the malcontents to the signing of Takuma Asano.
Not only is there negative hysteria from them, its xenophobic, and in some cases downright racist. We also have the brainless soundbite that its a “commercial” signing, or a “shirt sales” signing.
One of the most laughable reasons (should that not be excuses, as I know they like to use that term, when it suits them), for their over the top reaction to this signing, is that it is “all Arsenal FC’s fault”, as they should know better than to announce his signing when Utd have announced Mkhitaryan and Zlatan. They say AFC should have waited till we had a big name(money) signing done and slip in the news about Asano, with it.
So to compound their initial attacks on both AFC and Asano, they have totally disrespected the player again.
Does Takuma Asano not deserve respect, is he not a full International, is he not likely to be playing at the Olympics, did he not have up to 200 scouts running the rule over him at the Toulon U21 tournament in the summer, is he not a big star in his home country, is he not young player of the year in his homeland(their Dele Alli per say, but without the hype)?

Does he not deserve the chance in his last couple of game for them, to say goodbye to his club, their fans, his team mates?

 

Arsenal announced the deal, cos the story had broken in Japan, Asano was already getting asked lots of questions about it, and he had admitted the move was happening, he even said that the only thing to be decided was if he would join up directly with AFC, or go on loan to get used to European football.

 

A post stolen from the comments section by eduardo792

122 Comments

A Bird In The Hand

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There’s a priceless piece of dialogue from the pen of the wonderful David Nobbs on a subject which has, just this morning, provided the sand in my emotional Vaseline. His character, known to us only by his initials CJ, is expounding upon the theme of trite, stereotyped phraseology of the kind employed by lazy minds to express popular or common thoughts and ideas. Phrases entirely lacking in originality, ingenuity, and, thanks to their chronic overexposure, expressions which are so devoid of impact as to be utterly pointless.

The speech went something like this:

“Mrs C.J. and I have always avoided clichés like the plague. A cliché to me is like a red rag to a bull. However, it’s the exception that proves the rule, as they say, and there is one cliché that fits my situation like a glove: Necessity is the mother of intention.”

All writers slide into cliché, even humble part time amateur bloggers such as myself are no exception. The trick isn’t never to fall foul of the hackneyed phrase, it is rather to do one’s darnedest to avoid it wherever one can. Where the use of cliché is utterly beyond the pale isn’t when it is used as seasoning in an otherwise ordinary piece of prose. It seems to me to achieve its nadir of useless, shallow emptiness when employed as the central thrust of somebody’s argument.

Today, like birdsong, flowers and late sunsets, that hardy annual of the Transfer window has arrived right on cue to ruffle my feathers and send me running for the Anderson Shelter. Today for the first time this summer, I read the expression ‘to show intent’ in regard to the buying of players to augment our squad.

Arsène (or Wenger as he is invariably and rudely referred to by his own supporters. Or at least people who claim to support the club and therefore ought to be his supporters) needs to spend a lot of money or buy a lot of players or less players but players of the highest calibre because then he will be showing intent.

Now I’m no saint. Like you, I suspect, I’ve typed more than a few shallow, ill conceived lines and bunged them up on the internet in a thoughtless moment. So I don’t condemn everyone who uses this ridiculous phrase. Maybe they intended something else and didn’t get up today with the single intention of driving a splintered length of four by two up my backside.

But come on. Expend upon it the briefest moment of thought and really, what on earth is it supposed to mean? Transfers are complex and difficult to conclude. Expensive, drawn out and fraught with any number of complexities, of which you and I can know very little. What we can know with great certainty is that they serve one of two very simple purposes. To replace players who have left the club and to improve upon those already in the squad. That’s it. You do not engage the services of a highly paid professional footballer to send out a message of intent.

Arsène Wenger’s intentions are crystal clear. He wants to win as many games and competitions as he can. There is no doubt about this, it isn’t up for debate. Were he to buy someone simply to convey some sort of message, I ask you, who would this message be for? His rivals? The media? The fans?

His rivals already know he is serious about his job, if they don’t they’re idiots and need to look for alternative employment. The media have their own agenda and will stick slavishly to it regardless of what he does or doesn’t do. As a fan I don’t want him to spend a fortune of the club’s hard earned just to send me a message. That would be ridiculous.

So please do not repeat this awful phrase. Arsène doesn’t need to show anyone ‘intent’. His intentions are not and have never been in question. Why not watch the remaining matches of the European championships, then when they’re over have a little rest from football. Leave the professionals to do their jobs and buy the players they are able to buy and when the new season starts just try to enjoy it regardless of who did and didn’t sign in  this wretched window.

Oh, and leave the clichés to those without your wit and imagination. You know you can do better.

 

203 Comments

Arsenal – You do know the way to San Jose ?

Ck6cKZIWsAA8l-m (1)Good Morning Positivistas,

I thought I would out pen to paper this Sunday morning as it is weeks since I have had anything to write about on the Arsenal theme, and the past few days have rather rocked the Positive++ in me to their foundations.

I had hoped some Arsenal news might emerge to hang a written contribution on, but so far nothing. The best I can come up with is that we start out season in the Avaya Stadium, San Jose on the 28th July, as you all well know. By then we may, or may not, sign a new player or two. By the day no doubt another dozen names will have been in and out of the sorting hat. Those revelations hardly fulfil my mission to inform and to explain though.

Nevertheless there is international football to look forward to today. The opening group round of the Euros were mostly good games, tight contests with a pleasing number of the under-dogs biting the noses of the bigger hounds, most notably group winners Wales and Hungary.

All our AFC lads did well, Aaron, Olivier and Granit, the three most decisive. Tomas departure was a shame, though not unexpected. At least he played his last game in a fighting 2-2 come back against the crazed Croatians, rather than his career being signed off on the treatment table. And Jack ? I suspect if England are to make any genuine impression in the tournament they ( we) desperately need Jack to start, and to be the creative focus of the team. Not one of the starting England midfield appear to have the nous to open a defence up, to play a decisive ball.

Yesterday’s first knock out round, or what I saw, was a bit of let down, and all a bit cruel. A great goal from Shaquiri worthy of wining a tournament was undone by a penalty contest, and the Ulstermen managed to go out to an own goal. The Portuguese and the Croatians both played cautiously I thought, within themselves, and that was a looooooong 120 minutes. Portugal the lucky winners, though the exit of pouting tart superstar is postponed for another night only as they lack quality.

I trust the French and the Irish will release any metaphorical handbrakes and get down to business early today. Mesut follows that and we shall see if the Germans can beat a way through the Slovak lines any more successfully than England ?

That is it – whimsical musing over. Enjoy your Sunday.

332 Comments

Just What Do We Support?

By the time you read this it is possible that Jamie Vardy may have been announced as the second major signing of the summer. If so it will be an almost Fergusonian transfer. Buying the star striker of a top four rival, spending big to cover a temporary injury problem on a player with only a couple of years left in the tank. Aggressive, positive and short term. Well, possibly – that is one interpretation.

Of course Vardy might simply prove to be this summer’s Higuaín. A steaming heap of click baiting baloney providing social media know alls and bloggers like me the opportunity to spout ill informed bollocks about something which was never going to happen in the first place.

I’ll be up front with you; I don’t give a hoot either way. Similarly the Suarez transfer never interested me in the slightest quite simply because it never happened and never came close to happening. It was as worthwhile a use of our time and attention as a discussion on whether or not the earth is flat.

I no longer get angry when people follow up on the journalist’s daydreams and discuss them in all earnest – after all like the flat earthers they do no one else any real harm. They’re entertaining a fantasy which engages and amuses them. So what? The real transfers happen in due course and all the stupid pointless arguments and debates about the hallucinatory targets and fees evaporate like the hot air they always were.

So it isn’t the existence of the Vardy rumours which interests me. It isn’t even the moral debate which signing such a player, even in merely hypothetical terms, has provoked among my friends and other contacts. What made me prick up my ears was a conversation with my wife, a person with less interest in football than I have in macramé, as we traversed the car park of our local Lidl.

I’d outlined the problems people were having stomaching the thought of cheering on a man who has proven to be of dubious moral fibre. ‘But you can’t control that’, she said, ‘you have no say in the players you support. Someone else hires them, someone else picks them. In any case they change every year until after a while the entire team has altered and yet still you support it. Heck the manager and coaches change, the kit and the badge change and even the stadium can change, and still you support it.’

Then came the sixty four thousand dollar question. ‘What exactly do you support? If The Arsenal is like some huge, complex Trigger’s broom, what is it you are actually throwing your weight behind?’ My mouth opened and closed a few times as I absently stowed a half dozen bags of cut price and highly tasty groceries into the trusty Hyundai Matrix.

We can kid ourselves it’s the ethical nature of the club and quietly overlook the scandal of allowing people to work in and around the stadium on match days for less than a decent living wage. We can point to our players’ avoiding the tabloid excesses of those from other clubs as if they were saints rather than simply well drilled and controlled. We can dislike the politics of someone from Leicester City and assume none of the current or past squad are raving right wingers in favour of politicians who’s sole aim is the destruction of all that is decent in our society.

We can make a big deal of Arsène Wenger’s decency, the unquestioned statesmanlike dignity with which he manages our club, but then what if someone like Jose Mourinho was appointed in his stead? We wouldn’t stop supporting would we? We’d perform like moral contortionists, make our excuses and go on cheering for the team.

We stand on feet of clay and I suggest we have no option but to find shoes to fit them. It’s distasteful sometimes but what can we do? The only option is to support someone else and good luck finding another team any better or more consistent with your moral stance. I suppose one could just give up following the sport at all, but where would be the fun in that?

So what did I conclude in the supermarket car park? What exactly do I support? If not the players, manager, owners, stadium, crest or shirt then what? In the end I decided all I was left with was the name. It seems that I support The Arsenal. And like my marriage I do so for better or for worse.

149 Comments

Arsenal Fans Are Being Fooled.

Today a guest post from @foreverheady
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About Positively Arsenal

Positively Arsenal was created in January 2013 to provide a platform for like-minded Arsenal fans to come together to enjoy their magnificent football club. We who post on PA choose to celebrate the excitement of the football played, the quality of the players, coaches and the manager, and the exhilaration that the attacking style of Wengerball in its pure form. We cheer victory, we commiserate in defeat. We seek the positive and are never despondent. Three years on from PA’s birth, 700 articles, 65,000 comments and half a million visitors suggest it was worth doing. PA will provide an oasis of support amidst, at times, an ocean of doom and hysterical misery.

 

If you are a fan of the club who needs to vent their frustration by denouncing players who are “Notfittoweartheshirt”, or who delights disparaging the efforts of manager, and the club’s coaches then the site is probably not for you. If you are an expert in the football transfer market, in sports medicine, in the mechanics of running a £1 billion sports business etcetera then it may be that PA is an insufficient platform for that abundance of your accumulated knowledge. There are many other blogs on which you will be much, much more at home.

 

To enjoy supporting Arsenal is a choice. Choose wisely.

56 Comments

COUNTERFACTUAL ARSENAL

Research on counterfactual thinking has shown that people’s emotional responses to events are influenced by their thoughts about “what might have been.”
When Less Is More: Counterfactual Thinking and Satisfaction Among Olympic Medalists Victoria Husted Medvec, Scott F. Madey, Thomas Gilovich

Despite my awareness that football fans, including yours truly, often react irrationally to the fortunes of their club, overreacting to both victories and defeats, I found myself totally unable to comprehend the continuing pall of negativity that currently lingers among certain supporters since end of season. Despite our club sensationally snatching 2nd place from the loose, slippery grasp of Tottenham Hotspurs on the very last day of the season and the resulting spontaneous eruption of joy across goonerland, it seems to me there is a large group of fans that cannot let loose of a negative mindset which they adopted since April when our title chances mathematically started slipping away.

Thus for example the following memes repeated adnauseam during the past season persist to this day despite being blatantly false:

  • Giroud is useless and ineffectual, a virtual lamppost. Yet he ended the season as our top goal scorer and the only one of our strikers to hit his Expected Goals (xG).
  • Wenger condemned the team to failure by signing no outfield players during the summer transfer window. Yet a prominent statistician using his xG model, estimated Arsenal should have scored about 58 goals, the highest in the division, and apart from own goals, ended up scoring 46. (It is noteworthy that of all our expected goal-scorers only our useless French lamppost hit anywhere close to projected numbers.)
  • Arsenal was destined to come fourth all over again due to usual failings. Yet the club came 2nd in 2016, 3rd in 2015, and last-time coming 4th was in 2014.

In no sphere of human life, have I seen three years of constant improvement met with so much derision and hand-wringing by those who should be most excited. Despite compelling evidence of constant progress in what is regarded as the most competitive of all the top football leagues in Europe, coming 2nd in 2016 has been met with an underwhelming “meh” by many supposedly knowledgeable Arsenal fans.

I came to this conclusion after listening to three separate podcasters doing their traditional end of season review. In one particular case the moderator asked his colleagues to give a letter grade to the season. The best one of his panelists could assess the club was a C-. His other two panelists ranged between D- and D+. In other words, for coming 2nd, Arsenal was adjudged by this podcast to be closer to an F (Failure) than to an A (Outstanding). Yet the club had surpassed all its traditional top-four rivals (every single one of whom spent shitloads more money on transfers) as well as dramatically overhaul on the final day of the season its North London neighbor, who until their hilarious implosion at Newcastle, had been universally adjudged by the mainstream media as having its finest season in a generation.

For days I struggled to come to terms with what was to me clearly irrational thinking. In such circumstances, when one is unable to explain the inexplicable, self-doubts emerge. At times I wondered if I was an aberration, a hopeless optimist fulfilling the naive Pollyanna caricature that we at Positively Arsenal are often accused. I am happy to report that throwing in the towel and conceding to our nemesis was never an option for me.

It was in the the middle of this disquieting period that by sheer chance I discovered there is a perfectly valid scientific explanation for this negative outlook by many genuine Arsenal fans. Apparently it is completely consistent with a well established psychological phenomenon known as Counterfactual Thinking which is defined as
“the human tendency to create possible alternatives to life events that have already occurred; alternatives that are contrary to what actually happened.”

According to wikipedia Counterfactual literally means contrary to the facts. A counterfactual thought occurs when a person modifies a factual prior event and then assesses the consequences of that change. A person may imagine how an outcome could have turned out differently, if the antecedents that led to that event were different. For example, a person may reflect upon how a car accident could have turned out by imagining how some of the factors could have been different, for example, If only I hadn’t been speeding…. These alternatives can be better or worse than the actual situation, and in turn give improved or more disastrous possible outcomes, If only I hadn’t been speeding, my car wouldn’t have been wrecked or If I hadn’t been wearing a seatbelt, I would have been killed.

In light of our failure to win the 2016 title, it is perfectly understandable and predictable that on twitter, blogs and podcasts, the counterfactual is now rampant among both the great and the good, i.e. our lapse was basically due to not signing a world class striker. This collective revision of history completely ignores the fact that there were no quality strikers on the market as exemplified by Manchester United taking the unprecedented risk of taking a £55-£65 million punt on a striker with potential, a gamble which saw them come 5th in the league with no champions league football and the eventual bloodletting and sacking of LVG.

In fact some supporters go further to blame Arsenal’s failure in goal scoring to its doomed attempt to sign Suarez three years ago; they imagine if only the club had plumped for Higuain he would have scored 35 goals for us this year just as he did for Napoli in Serie A. Consistent with counterfactual thinking , such imaginations completely negate the well known fact that Madrid jacked up Higuain’s price at the final stages of the negotiations making him unaffordable to AFC and that Higuain himself was not enthused about coming to England and had a preference for Italy with its well-known Argentinean connections. Moreover being counterfactual, the advocates of this point of view conveniently ignore the eventual reality, that having jerked us over with Higuain, Florentino Perez, Madrid’s president, felt he was obligated to give Arsenal a fair crack of the whip in negotiations for Özil. One wonders, in retrospect, who would they have chosen then; world class Özil or the less celebrated Higuain who often comes off the bench for Argentina.

As is familiar to those of us who are constantly exposed to Arsenal fans on social media, counterfactual thoughts have been shown to produce negative emotions. But the literature emphasizes that it may produce beneficial effects. On one hand there are downward counterfactuals which are ideas that create a more negative outcome versus upward counterfactuals which are those thoughts that create a more positive outcome.

Hence we have the spectacle of a fairly respected statistical-oriented blogger having initially made the case that Arsene had built a title winning squad, completely contradict himself by early April, describing Arsene as having the most dysfunctional squad in years and proclaiming “Arsenal Need An Overhaul”. A series of miserable blogs followed including a declaration he had decided not to make his annual trip to support the Arsenal.

Contrast this downward outlook with the upward bias of our own Stew Black in his previews over the same period.

April 17 2016 (after the 3-3 draw with West Ham one week earlier):
“The players have to contend with the baying of the psychophysically damaged as they enter the fray and so it is vital that the rest of us, you and I included, make as much noise in their defence and in positive support as we possibly can between now and the fifteenth of May. There might not be a trophy waiting for us, we may be a little spoiled by recent success, but we still have plenty to play for. Let’s see if we can’t cheer the boys over the line.”

April 21, 2016 9 (after the 1-1 draw with Crystal Palace 4-days earlier):
“As far as 2015/16 is concerned, there is still a job to be done, still matches still to be played. Nothing is yet certain, nothing can be taken for granted. I intend to carry on enjoying the season today and for the next few weeks just as much as I enjoyed the charity shield back in August when the whole thing started. Enjoying the spectacle is of course all any of us can hope to do. Nothing I nor any other fan says will have the slightest impact on managerial nor boardroom decisions and that is absolutely how it should be. You wouldn’t have told Shakespeare how to write and you don’t tell Arsène Wenger how to manage. If you are so special that King Lear simply isn’t good enough for you, then stop watching it, leave the theatre and let the rest of us enjoy the show.”

Stew was obviously being upwardly counterfactual in not letting recent negative results damage his conviction that there was much to enjoy as Arsenal tackled the critical final games of the season He also had the psychological reward, which we at PA gladly share, of enjoying the fruits of his optimism as a resolute, fighting Arsenal snatched second place from not only the hands of the Spurs but from the negative miasma that some of our own fans were wishing and willing to engulf the club.

While psychologists may have initially concluded that counterfactual thinking is an indicator of poor coping skills, modern research and studies now indicate that it may be a helpful behavior regulator. Apparently thinking counterfactually is a way for us humans to prepare ourselves mentally to correct for past mistakes and avoid making them in the future. For example if a person has a terrible interview and thinks about how it may have been more successful if they had responded in a more confident manner, they are more likely to respond more confidently in their next interview.

The problem with our blogging and podcasting community is they will never have a chance to do an “interview”. In other words they will never be able to experience the transfer market in the manner of an Arsene Wenger or a Dick Law. Despite having little or no knowledge of the transfer market and targets being pursued by the club, their downward counterfactual that the club will never sign a quality player is increasingly being proven to be wide of the mark:

2012: Santi Cazorla
2013: Mesuit Özil
2014: Alexis Sanchez
2015: Per Cech

No wonder they are relatively quiet when the club can bring forward the transfer of an Elneny six months before it was due or the signing of Xhaka Granit long before the end of May. Apparently I am not alone in this observation. In the Comments section of PA on May 27th Northbank1969 observed:
“I find it quite surprising that there’s not been a big buzz on the Arsenal Blogosphere about Granit being bought early in the TW unlike when Wenger bought Ozil and Sanchez when the Arsenal world exploded.”
In my opinion the lack of excitement is entirely due to the fact that their downward counterfactual has trapped them in a negative feedback loop. They were mentally prepared for “dithering” Wenger to make a big signing in the waning days of the transfer window. Wenger and the club have flipped the script and there is no “interview” scheduled for the end of August. For them an entirely frustrating and boring transfer window looms or a brand new counterfactual must be created. Stay tuned.

In my set up to this blog, I quoted the abstract to a research paper which studied the role of counterfactual thinking on Olympic-level sportsmen and women. As defined, counterfactuals engage in “what might have been.” The authors documented a familiar occasion in which athletes who are objectively better off nonetheless feel worse. In their analysis they found that the emotional reactions of bronze and silver medalists at the 1992 Summer Olympics—both at the conclusion of their events and on the medal stand—indicates that bronze medalists tend to be happier than silver medalists. The authors attribute these results to the fact that the most compelling counterfactual alternative for the silver medalist is winning the gold, whereas for the bronze medalist it is finishing without a medal. I will not bore you with the details of the study. It is available at a cost http://psycnet.apa.org. While I was unable to conduct research into player reactions (whether Arsenal or other) to coming 1st, 2nd, 3rd or 4th place in the League, the picture of Arsene’s reaction after the winning goal to come 4th on the last day of the 2012 season speaks more than a thousand words.

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Talk about that 4th place bronze medal! Ha, Ha, Ha.

23 Comments

Arsenal – jottings from the seaside

 

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Good morning Positivistas,

I thought I would break into the interminable Summer break, a hiatus that seems to have lasted weeks now, though the calendar tells me it is less.

Turning to matters AFC yesterday’s unveiling of Granit Xhaka was a bright start to the summer and the boy now has a chance to settle into the first team squad and acclimatise to life in England. The early move seems sensible. It may well be that with a significant change of personnel in our midfield, with Mikel, Tomas and probably the Flamster too on his way out that a few weeks is required to fit together all the pieces again.

The young Swiss player comes highly rated and, from what he says, Arsene was tapping him up on the ‘phone a year ago. ( Surely not !).I know very little about him and on the rare occasions I watched Monchengladbach last season, perhaps one or twice, he did not register on my radar. I look forward to being educated over the next few months.

A large transfer fee appears to have momentarily quelled the Scarfist jibber-jabber. I suspect their quiet will not last long once the transfer window is open and others are flashing the PL cash. There is talk of another striker, but who knows ?

Looking a little further forward we have the Euros commencing on the 10th when the hosts take on Roumania. With a select band of Arsenal players taking part in France there will be interest for us but, apparently, it seems to be a tournament where even now ‘security’ concerns are looming over proceedings. There will be much good football, and a few new names. I look forward to the event. As matters stand England have first to negotiate the ‘friendly’ with Australia on Friday night. Why playing the Aussies is regarded as a good final preparation and fine tuning for the Euros is a puzzle, as even Vardy seems to realise.

Talking of the relentless march of time Ian reminded me that it is 27 years today that “it was up for grabs now”. I can still see the rooftops of Lewisham and hear my voice. Happy St Michael’s day to you all and thank you Ian for the pic.

 

Anfield 89

Enjoy your week and what over here is a Bank holiday weekend.

 

245 Comments

Arsenal – the final sublime afternoon

 

Ban A4 wavers

Good Morning Positivistas,

What a finale to the season ! Ninety minutes that will be firmly fixed in my memory as one of the best final days I have witnessed, even weighed against seasons in which trophies have been won and records set. And memorable for all the right reasons.

Of the game itself we dominated the opening phase and the way we tore into Villa a substantial score looked possible, 6-7-8 ? Having taken the inevitable lead however the second goal did not come !! While the visitors looked horribly inept there was a niggling fear that with no second goal we risked another ‘Crystal Palace’ style stumble, the anxiety heightened as word from St James’ Park swept across the ground. The Lilywhite collapse came as a surprise for me and most I think, but thereafter each new Tottingham calamity met with hilarity and a knowing shrug “it’s Spurs”. Oh dear, oh dear, oh dear. The scale of their breakdown  was stunning and on this occasion there were no third party/lasagne themed excuses to hide behind.

It took us to the 78th minute for Olivier to hammer the 2nd goal on the back of Mesut’s 19th assist. That was a long time and evidence that despite the poverty of the opposition we found it difficult to quite get our game ‘right’. Santi was brilliant yesterday, and, though his work was much more in the background, so was Le Coq who worked hard all afternoon in the engine room. Though in possession of the ball 75% of the time and in control of the game just about 100% we did not really threaten in the Villa box. If I was looking for a reason it seemed to me that with Santi, Ozil, Jack, and Sanchez we had too many players of the same ball-playing at the feet style, all the same size, and trying to do the same job. When we brought on Elneny our shape changed and we became faster in moving the ball, and more direct.

Once the second came the third goal followed immediately for Olivier. Having sat uncomfortably through a few games when nothing has gone right for the Frenchman fortune shone her benevolent gaze on him yesterday, every damn thing went right. All good finishes as well.

Then came forth Mikel to loud applause. Even though our club captain was on the pitch for just five minutes he put his all into that cameo, and was duly rewarded with our final goal. ( Own goal my arse).

Mr Clattenburg duly brought out league season to a very satisfactory end, there followed very warm and sincere tributes to Mikel and Tomas. I do not know how much, if any was shown on the TV, but the Spaniard was really sobbing both on the pitch and later on with his wife and children in the tunnel. I suspect the tears were the realisation that part of his life, the life he has wanted and known from about the age of 8, to be a “footballer”, was over. Our friends at the Telegraph provide this morning’s final picture of the Mikel enjoying the final goal in an Arsenal shirt below.

Finally I am delighted to say that the ‘lap of appreciation’ was performed in front of an 80% full stadium with all of the players, coaches and manager, and their children, walking the perimeter with Gunnersaurus bringing up the rear. All had on Rosicky shirts, other than Theo (Sigh). The glow of good humour from crowd to team and manager you could feel. That is how a football ground ‘should’ be.

Is it only me but was the absence of any reference to/recognition of the Flamster in yesterday’s leaving ceremonies significant ? Might the Frenchman be in for one more campaign ? If not it was a bit of a shame he did not get a good cheer.

On the sunshine bus we all know that football retains the means to confound and delight us, to lift us to a joyous perch, and to drag us toward and then back from the brink of doom. Yesterday the season passed into history in a glow of enjoyment, of goals and of victory.

It is a pleasure and a privilege to write for so knowledgeable and enthusiastic an audience. Enjoy your week, enjoy the close season. We shall return.

Arteta