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Xhaka, Refs And Arsenal

I wanted to put in words my feelings on the whole Xhaka red card malarky. It’s hard, because when I tried on Twitter it came across that I thought he was a bad lad and I agreed with the sending off. Neither of these things are true. So when I saw  comment from our very own Arsenal Andrew, that perfectly summed up my feeling about not just that incident, but the overall state of the team and our position, in typical fashion, I thought “I’ll nick that”. 

Also, Andrew has been conspicuous by his absence (a bit like me really?) on the articles front, so this is my way of forcing the shirker out of his slumber.

“I’d be surprised if we see much more of Moss in the future, his ‘display’ left everything to be desired and had he succeeded, sorry, had Swansea succeeded in scabbing the draw we’d have never heard the last of it, and rightly so.

It’s rarely a single incident that riles fan rage but a culmination of confounding decisions that eventually add up to a deep-rooted dissatisfaction with the overall refereeing performance. And so it was on Saturday with Moss’s reckless ignoring of two Arsenal head injuries ahead of his joyous sprint to over-punish the over-stretched Granit.

Personally I love it when cheats are punished and would happily see all such unfootballing activities dealt with via the red card. But they so rarely are which makes Moss’s over-the-top intervention, in the context of his earlier tolerance of Swansea’s thuggery wholly confounding and ultimately unacceptable. Hence the outrage.

Which was a pity because refereeing shenanigans aside it was a thrilling game, thoroughly enjoyable and a terrific win for Arsenal. Except come season’s end, it won’t be remembered for that, will it?

And what of Arsenal’s wider form? As Shotta reminds us from time to time, we appear to be in the midst of a statistically significant run at the moment, though we have all been here before, right?

Our traditional Autumn Run tends to derail itself with a pile-up of injuries that clear themselves up in time for the end of season express train run-in. The difference this season, if any can be expected?

This will become manifestly clear over the next 8 weeks but to me we must be perilously close to having genuine strength in squad depth across all positions. Surely no team could absorb a loss to the side such as that presented by injuries to Ozil and Sanchez? I’d suggest that, brilliant though both clearly are, neither have hit top, top form which suggests the rest of the side – and the replacements in the wings – must be pretty decent.

I’m quietly confident.”

54 Comments

Arsenal – the Swansea Pivot

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Bore da pobl y Positives,

What a cracking game yesterday. One that will stick in my mind when the record of the 2016/2017 Premier League season is published.

Of the game itself? I admit I anticipated an easier afternoon, against a Swansea team in the bottom three, not won a game since the opening day of 13th of August in any competition, who have struggled this season on their travels, and who rolled up at the Ems with the unknown Mr Bradley in charge. What threat could they provide to an Arsenal side that has been flying of late, a virtually fully fit squad, quality all over the pitch and the Ems a relative fortress with the Scarfists silently peripheral in their misery as winning game follows game.

I should know better although until the 38th minute everything proceeded as I expected. We dominated the ball, passed well, slipped in the first with Theo showing the strength of a young Hercules, then doubled our lead. The visitors really did not have an answer. They chased us desperately but were always a yard behind. “Welcome to the PL Bob, this could get a bit tricky for you though”.

And then in the 38th minute that silly error from Granit, the ball given away needlessly which Sigurdsson slotted beyond Cech. That was a hell of a finish from a player who is not supposed to be a striker. Over those few seconds our dominance faded and/or Swansea sniffed the possibility of recovery from what a moment before had been a serious beating. One of THOSE moments.

Thereafter for the remainder of the match we found ourselves in an even contest, lots of energy, Alexis buzzing, cut and thrust, both sides playing a good passing game, their man Barrow a constant pest, both sides attacking con brio. We eased a little further ahead with an outstanding ball from the Chilean and a super finish from Mesut. And then, damn them, SCFC managed to drag us back to 3-2.

I could sense the manager’s unease when he put on Le Coq in place of Iwobi. This was going to be a hard last 25 minutes, the points were far from safe.

Moss’s choice of card colour was, as Arsene said, “harsh”. Whether Barrow was in fact injured I don’t know. A trip would not normally cause an injury but he appeared to be limping afterwards and exited ten minutes later so perhaps he was.

The final 20+ minutes were end to end stuff. Swansea had most of the ball, we defended carefully, solidly, cleanly, and kept them at bay. Our earlier looseness in defence was replaced by steely efficiency. Much our credit we also were (almost) deadly in our counter attacking, with two more chances for Theo that would and, in the case of the second one, should have finally hammered the Swans to defeat.

Of the result ? Very, very important. We stumbled in the 38th minute but managed to stay up. We had less possession than Swansea, and ultimately less players, but we had we used more effectively. Three points on a day when our rivals slipped up. Three points in a game decided by a pass and a finish from our two world class players. As you may gather from the photograph above the game took it out of me.

The significance of the game and the result ? Our sixth Premier League victory and we settle on the shoulder of the blue Manchester team, breathing lightly on the shiny dome of Pep. As I said in opening on such days are League Championships won, and lost.

Therefore enjoy your Sunday and we shall see what the champions of Bulgaria have to offer later in the week.

229 Comments

Arsenal Versus Swansea: Listen Very Carefully, I Shall Say This Only Once

'Allo 'Allo

I grew up immersed in radio. Probably as a result of being brought up by parents who in their turn were raised during the medium’s golden age. As with many people of my generation I swiftly tired of the feeble and inane antics of the gormless, coiffured imbeciles who polluted the airwaves from the studios of Radio 1. It wasn’t so much their crushing insincerity which so turned me off as their obvious lack of discernment, knowledge of and love for music. The very stuff on which their careers depended.

There were always exceptions, usually shunted to the graveyard shifts and all of whom no matter how dedicated and worthy slid into the shadow of one truly remarkable man. John Peel wasn’t just ahead of the curve, John Peel often decided what shape the curve ought to be. He was also honest, unfeigned in his enthusiasms and scathing in his dismissal of the worst excesses of the industry he had graced with his presence long before I became aware of his work.

I am in fact listening to one of his broadcasts from 1981 as I write this and he has just effortlessly and with delicious, well judged perversity segued from Scientist Meets Roots Radics into The Birthday Party as only he could. This is courtesy of a rather splendid blog called The Perfumed Garden and if you’re a fan I suggest you have a gander.

I’m almost embarrassed to admit this but I often didn’t bother to listen to his shows in the later years. I would sometimes catch him on Radio 4 on a Saturday morning when he presented  Home Truths but oftentimes was stupidly casual where his music show was concerned. I assumed, well, I suppose I just assumed he’d always be around and I could dip in and out like a kleptomaniac at a Wilko’s pick ‘n’ mix stand.

Of course Peely upped and died on us in October 2004 and I was bereft in a way no ‘celebrity’ death has affected me before or since. It was a salutary lesson. Nothing is forever, no one will be a permanent fixture in our lives. That which we enjoy today will soon be the stuff of fading memory. Much, much sooner than we ever imagine. Who, for example, could have envisaged that watching Tomáš Rosický as he pirouetted through and around a hapless opposition midfield and defence would already be just so much nostalgia?

Football is an especially transient business with individuals and indeed entire squads seeming to evaporate into the ether. Given that we have all experienced this time and again and given that we have therefore a sense of the impermanence of the component elements of that which gives us so much joy, doesn’t it strike you as crazy that we spend so much of our precious time arguing, haranguing one another and worrying about what the irredeemably irrelevant such as Piers Morgan might or might not have been saying lately?

Just because Arsène Wenger has been around since the Pleistocene I fear that many people may make the mistake I made with John Peel and simply take the great man for granted. Those of us who revere him, those who for their own tangled, deranged and unhappy reasons detest him, both like to indulge in heated debate about what will happen when he’s gone. This and most other silly disputes are simply distractions and if we spend too long down such rabbit holes we may pop our bewildered heads back above ground one day to find the Wenger era is suddenly no more and instead of enjoying every single last second of it we were down the pub when we might have been sitting at home with the radio on.

The current Arsenal squad is a case in point. Already we have witnessed passages of play and goals to rank with the very best that Wengerball has had to offer. That we might be witnessing something special is transparently obvious and worrying about whether the run can last or whether Aaron can regain his place or if Jack’s loan is a precursor to his exit or if Hector will ‘do a Cesc’ is the most idiotic waste of the moment I can image.

Now don’t panic I’m not going to give you any Mindfulness psychobabble about ‘living in the now’ I’ll leave that to the next David Brent impersonator you end up trapped with on a professional development seminar at work. I’m simply aware that we live in age of multiple distractions and it is all too easy to spread the jam a little too thinly. Often I hear people say they can’t enjoy the game for fear of losing and the resultant fall out with mates and colleagues. I myself have missed goals while furiously typing to nobody at all my thoughts on some irrelevant detail during the build up.

If we don’t enjoy every single second of Mesut Özil, every moment of a resurgent Theo Walcott because we’re too busy fuming at the brainless questions some semi literate hack spewed at Arsène in the recent presser then we will regret it. Trust me.

And so to today’s feast of football fun. Swansea have, lately, been like the head of a Playmobil figure trodden on by the bare foot of a hungover divorcee the day after his kids went back to their mother and Brian. In our last five meetings we’ve only beaten them once and in the last three home fixtures they’ve beaten us twice and drawn once. If you want to go right back to our first Premier league encounter with the chaps from Dylan’s ‘ugly, lovely town’ the stats show an absolute balance. A perfect tie, with both sides winning and losing seven and drawing two.

Can we tilt the see-saw our way this afternoon? Hell yes. Of course we can. Can they frustrate us once again? Well, it’s sport, everything is possible, no matter how apparently unlikely. I say unlikely simply because no matter how well Swansea have faired against us historically, this season they are on a dismal run of form. Taken over the previous six matches the form table shows us at the top and our visitors anchored to the bottom.

I have no clue what to expect from Swansea today. Their manager is untested in the Premier League but early indications suggest that he feels a lack of fitness to be at the root of their travails thus far. If so it seems unlikely such a concern can have already been addressed – these things take time. Also a side like Arsenal which often increases the intensity of their game the longer the match goes on is probably the last opponent Bob Bradley would have chosen to meet.

Performances following the hated international break can be patchy but are usually successful.  Either way I intend to enjoy every moment. Each beautifully timed interception from Kos or Mustafi, each rapier thrust from Hector, every astonishing piece of control from Santi or Mesut. All of it, I will be watching as if it’s my last match, I refuse to be that guy who looks around in astonishment one day as he realises that the Wenger era passed him by. As good and as inspirational as this vintage John Peel show might be, watching highlights of an old game is no substitute for the visceral thrill of the real thing.

92 Comments

Santi Cazorla or Aaron Ramsey: Wenger’s Dilemma

1cazorla-ramseyIt is the interlull and idle minds have idle thoughts. At the risk of arousing the mischief-makers in the fanbase, who eagerly need a scapegoat du jour to feast on when the going gets wobbly, there is something intriguing about the future role of Aaron Ramsey when he returns from injury given the way the team has developed in his absence. To be fair I am not the first fan who has raised these concerns but I will approach it from my usual data-driven perspective.

I start from the premise that Ramsey is directly competing with Santi Cazorla for that central midfield starting position. I base this primarily on the fact that Wenger selected Ramsey to be the box-to-box midfielder in the club’s season-opener vs Liverpool at the expense of a fit Cazorla who only came on after the younger man left the field with a hamstring injury.

A superficial look at their characteristics according to Whoscored.com would suggest that Santi has the greater skill-set and is hands-down a better option, all things being equal.

Santi Cazorla
Strengths
Passing Very Strong
Through balls Very Strong
Holding on to the ball Strong
Key passes Strong
Dribbling Strong
Taking set-pieces Strong
Long shots Strong
Weaknessess
Tackling Weak
Aaron Ramsey
Strengths
Passing Very Strong
Key passes Strong
Holding on to the ball Strong
Defensive Contribution Strong
Weaknessess
Crossing Weak

Merely looking at their relative characteristics, in my opinion, does not adequately answer the question as to why the manager saw Ramsey as a superior option at the beginning of the season. Unlike many Arsenal bloggers, I do not believe for one moment that Wenger makes any footballing decision based purely on sentiment. He has said often enough he is obsessed with winning football games and his record of victories is second to none when it comes to previous football mangers at Arsenal Football Club. Focussing solely on their EPL performances, I decided to parse the WhoScored data to identify any trends, starting with their respective playing time.

png-cazram-minutes

It’s quite evident that ever since his transfer to the club in 2012 (the importance of this was overshadowed by the noisy, acrimonious sale of Van Persie to United that same summer) Santi has played some heavy minutes for the club, in excess of 3,000 per season in 12/13 and 14/15. Add 624 and 559 respectively in the champions league campaigns, then we get a full measure of how vital it was for the manager to have the little Spaniard on the team sheet. For comparison’s sake, Aaron has never logged a similar amount of time but it is telling that when Santi’s playing time was scuttled by injuries in 15/16, the Welshman’s participation increased, suggesting there is an inverse relationship.

png-cazram-goals

In the goal-scoring department Ramsey is the clear winner over the four seasons together. He hit a peak of 10 goals in 13/14 and since then has leveled off to a most recent haul of 5 goals for a season. Santi was a goal-scoring tyro in 12/13 but has become less of an option from open play emerging as the penalty and free-kick specialist in recent years. After 15 games in 15/16, before that season-ending injury, his goal tally was zero.

png-cazram-assists

While Ramsey had an Indian summer in 13/14 with goals and assists, like his goal-scoring, the assists have gradually tailed off over the years. In 15/16 he was a provider on a mere four occasions. In contrast Santi has been a constant assister, his best years being 12/13 and 14/15 when he had major minutes on the field. His only off year was 15/16 when his campaign was truncated less than half way through.

png-cazram-pass

This is a most telling graphic. Santi with one exception has consistently been the superior passer. While they may have been statistically the same in 12/13, Aaron’s passing percentage has been decidedly inferior over time with the gap at its widest in 15/16 at 4 percentage points. Ramsey is down to the mid 80s while the Spaniard is in the stratospheric 90s. How significant is this difference given that the current Arsenal is a technically oriented outfit that relies on possession and accurate, clever passing?

 

png-cazram-overall

In its ultimate rating Whoscored ranked Ramsey a superior Overall player on only one occasion at 7.7. That was in 13/14, the best year in his career for goals and assists. Otherwise Santi has had the consistently superior Overall rating, from a high of 7.9 in 12/13 to a low of 7.3 in 13/14. Despite the ravages of time, Santi is now 31 years old (vs Aaron’s youthful 26), the veteran has seemingly defied age this season. After six EPL games he has 2 goals and 2 assists and a 92% passing success rate, yielding a 7.1 Overall rating. The little magician seems in no hurry to exit center stage.

Arsene Wenger certainly has better knowledge of both players than any of us. He observes them on the training ground and will have access to superior data than Whoscored. The manager recently admitted he receives enormous information from the in-house analytics firm, StatDNA, but has to whittle it down to what is most important. In this instance, while the data set is small, I wonder whether he now thinks Ramsey’s better goal-scoring and defensive contribution outweighs Cazorla’s better passing and assists. Interesting times ahead.

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Wenger Will Be The Manager Indefinitely

consistency

Unlike my more erudite colleagues at PA, my role is to inform and explain the sometimes boring but always unbiased data that serve as predictors of the competitive future of our club.

Due to the longevity of our great manager, we have 20 years of data covering 760 Premier League games that allow us to identify certain long term trends which are repetitive and predictable. Unlike the mainstream media and most of our colleagues who blog, podcast or tweet we do not have to resort to cheap sensationalism to make our point. A review of two very important developments will illustrate my point.

Wenger20

The celebration of Wenger’s 20 years as manager of the club was marked by a massive orgy of hyperbole and bogus platitudes by the mainstream media that must have left the manager bemused. After all, less than six months ago the self-same media, led by serial phone-hacker Piers Morgan, were eagerly fanning the flames of discontent and provoking demonstrations by fans to drive Wenger Out.

I therefore feel great empathy for our own Pedantic George when he vented in the Comments section of the blog last Saturday:

“Seeing a shower of absolute bastards, currying favour on the back of Arsene’s 20th anniversary, is turning my stomach.”

Unfortunately there is nothing that either George, I, or you the reader can do that will change the behavior of these “bastards”. It is totally consistent with my “greed and despair” paradigm to which I frequently refer. (More details here.) They are simply “sensationalizing,” preying on emotions. Notice that every member of the commercial media in England and on this side of the pond (i.e. NBC which has the Premier league broadcast rights) is doing a special on Wenger proclaiming how great he is. It makes commercial sense. Arsenal fans in particular are drawn to it in droves and those eyeballs online mean money especially for those newspapers who are bleeding readership, because the public has increasingly lost faith in them thanks to their mendacity and bias.

Yet six weeks ago, in mid-August, I did a blog showing that in the collective wisdom of nearly 40 pundits from both ESPN and BBC, Arsenal under Arsene was predicted to come 3rd in the league, in direct contradiction to the historical data. It defies reason that most journalists, pundits or bloggers within weeks, sometimes days, of declaring Wenger no longer fit for purpose, write such voluminous paeans and odes of praise to his greatness.

Unlike the mainstream media and the majority of vacillating, wavering Arsenal bloggers, we have cold hard data to justify our firmly held conviction that Arsene is not only the greatest manager this club has ever had but he is set to continue indefinitely. A contract is already in his hands and I am sure the board will be anxious as kittens until he signs. Like the bankers who demanded he agree to remain as manager for five years after moving into the new stadium, we rely on past performance, not sentiment.

“Consistency, thou art a jewel” – Shakespeare

png-avg-points

What is undeniable, from the graphic above, is that under 20 years of Arsene’s management the club has recorded the joint second highest average points per season (74) among all clubs, despite being massively outspent by United, Chelsea and City and at times, Liverpool. Despite the over one billion pounds invested in Chelsea by Abramovich in the past 12 years, the gap between them and Arsenal is negligible. (Note the graphic is generous to City whose average is calculated over 16 years by excluding the four seasons they were in the 2nd and 3rd flight of English football.) Also observable is the considerable gulf between between the Gunners and its North London rivals, in the order of 20 points.  Of all his rivals Arsene is yet to overhaul or match Manchester United, a realistic prospect in the first ten years until the club decided to focus its resources on building a new and bigger stadium.This is a handy segue to doing what is now standard in my analyses which is measure Wenger’s consistency in the pre-Emirates versus the Post-Emirate years.

Pre-Emirates

png-avg-points-pre

The graphic and figures are crystal clear. Even though Wenger did not have the capacity to make record transfers in the magnitude of Ferguson at United, he had sufficient resources and the managerial nous to be on average only three (3) points inferior to the biggest and most successful club in England (80 vs 77 points). Despite inferior finances Arsene/Arsenal was able to capture three EPL titles including the singular honor of an Invincible, two doubles including the Invincible year and four FA cups.  In contrast, Manchester City, without the financial resources of the Abu Dhabi group, had in the same ten-year span spent four years outside of the top flight generating a piddling season average of 23 points, less than one-third of Arsenal’s.

Post Emirates

post-avg-points

With the austerity brought on by the stadium move, as well as  Chelsea and City becoming the unprecedented beneficiaries of deep-pocketed sugar-daddies, Wenger was simply unable to compete in the transfer market. Nonetheless Arsenal remained consistently among the top-three clubs in points earned with the season average dropping by six (6) to 71 points. It is notable that despite the hundreds of millions spent by Chelsea, their season average is no better than Wenger’s 77 points during his first ten years. Similarly, a big spender like City, with ten years to get a run at a financially crippled Wenger, is still three (3) points behind in current season average. Liverpool, despite the constant churn of managers, players and owners remain in-situ. That is not a comforting statistic if the scousers ever hope to catch and surpass Arsenal.

Now that Arsene/Arsenal is able to consistently spend on top-top quality players as well as patiently develop those coming through the academy, only the rabid anti-Wenger WOBs and weak-willed fans who allow themselves to become victims of groundless doom-mongering by the media, would bet against Wenger at least regaining the ground lost over the past ten-years.  If he is as competitive as his brother Guy disclosed in that recent newspaper interview, Arsene will be dying to prove he has the same, if not more longevity, than his older sibling who retired at 70. How many of you, dear reader, are willing to put up a wager?

Unto Burnley

Despite the whingeing and whining in various quarters that Arsenal was not as fluent, not as free-scoring as in prior games vs Chelsea and Basel, the most important piece of data from the Burnley game is the winning streak continues. The club is now 5 wins without a loss. In contrast, the previous leader in this statistical category, Manchester City, saw their winning streak end last Sunday at 6 wins. What should hearten every Gooner is the comprehensive nature of City’s loss to Spurs, who missed a penalty by the way. Prior to this loss, the media and some Arsenal fans were noisily trumpeting Pep Guardiola as their genius manager who automatically made City  presumptive champions of the EPL, a full eight months before end of season.

png-streaks

Legend: Crimson – MUFC, Yellow – AFC, Blue- CFC, Light Blue – MCFC, Red – LCFC

In my last blog I highlighted data showing that the key to Arsenal winning previous titles under Wenger was going on substantial winning streaks. The average winning sequence in those 3 championship years was 11 games, ranging from a low of 9 to a high of 13. The clear implication being that victorious Arsenal teams tend to be consistently dominant throughout a season. One may argue that the data set is too small to draw any conclusions but during the past 20 years the average longest winning streak by a PL winning club was 8 games. The maximum run was 13 games by Arsenal in 2001-02 versus a minimum of 4 games by Manchester United in 2010-11. See the graphic above.

The data in my opinion is crystal clear.

For us to confidently predict a title win, this Arsenal team must attain at least an 8 game sequence of wins. Maybe this is the streak or it will be attained later in the season.

As positively realistic fans, we will patiently wait on the data.

73 Comments

It Was 1-0 To The Arsenal And That Is Never Wrong

Today’s article is from our very own Gf60

2nd-burnley-pic

Neither offside nor handball as clearly shown by this image, courtesy of Arsenal.com

Andy Nic chose a very good weekend to visit the D Day memorial in Normandy.

Even his cultured prose would have had problems with this game.  As Steww mentioned in his preview regarding fans’ superstition of travelling North of Watford after a Euro game: “The best we can hope for is to survive and nick the points…”.

By the way, where did all those virgins go Steww?

Superstition 1, Steww 0.

Having watched most of our ‘1-0 to the Arsenal’ games it is no lie to say that this was probably the closest finish we’ve experienced, with no time to even kick off after Kos’s winner… or was it Ox’s winner? Whatever it was, it must be termed our scrappiest goal of the season and Burnley supporters will argue that off-side and/or hand-ball should have been called.

Incorrect of course, it was 1-0 to the Arsenal and that is never wrong.

No changes to the side from the Basel game, bar Petr coming in for Oosp, but we definitely saw a change in tempo. Perhaps a return to planet Earth was due and the stygian gloom of the North-West would not have helped. For sure we seemed to be playing at half the pace seen during the previous eight days and it took us some fifteen minutes to acclimatize.

Even then, it was noticeable that our midfield was a bit heavy-legged, nobody doing much wrong but having nowhere near the control that we’d previously shown.  Fortunately our back line was working well and despite a couple of chances were holding Burnley at bay. The Koshodra partnership was very sound as was the covering for any defender caught upfield.  Petr made some good saves when needed, one particularly special in the second half.

Up front, Alexis was running around like the butcher’s dog but not getting the reward his energy deserved.

He’s such an unselfish player and had a few shooting possibilities that were laid off to others. Time to get the selfishness back Alexis? You did that on Wednesday as well trying to give Theo his hat-trick.

Theo’s good work in defence continued. He really has improved in that area. Pity that his shooting let him down, as was the case with Oz. Theo however was responsible for the header that led to our goal so he can be forgiven.

Oz just had an offish day.

Now for yet another interbloodynational break …

Let’s hope all the guys called on come back fit and ready to eat some roast swan.

Keep the faith.

124 Comments

Arsenal Versus Burnley: To the Virgins, to Make Much of Time

gather_ye_rosebuds_while_ye_may

Damn the coffee tastes good this morning. I had a long and wearying day yesterday, entirely missed any football related news and gossip and have woken to thin watery sunlight washing through chill autumnal air. Only one thought could kick me out of the womb like warm coddling of my memory foamed paradise; Turf Moor, sixteen thirty hours, and the return of our all conquering heroes.

There is a superstition among fans that travelling north of Watford on the weekend following a European midweek match is a tricky affair. The best we can hope for is to survive and nick the points and return home to prepare for the next game when, refreshed and rejuvenated, the boys can once again turn on the style. That mood has not so much lifted as evaporated this week.

Such is the atmosphere of joy and goodwill within the Arsenal family right now that everyone is licking their lips in anticipation, revelling in some sparkling performances and generally not coming down off their post Chelsea buzz. I’m a naturally cautious character. Having predicted a good day when Costa and co visited the Emirates I agonised over removing the offending paragraph. Terrified of hubris, of misplaced optimism, and (whisper it) being irrationally and unforgivably concerned at ‘jinxing’ the result it was a genuinely difficult decision to leave it in.

In the end the sense of gathering momentum, the hints of a joyous return to the wonders of Wengerball were so strong as to be irresistible and my inner editor waved the white flag and skulked off to sulk in the corner. Of course I didn’t ‘know’ we would trounce Chelsea and produce a performance of breathtaking superiority over Basel. I didn’t dare to even guess but I had to express the feeling, to try to articulate the warm spread of confidence that came not out of the blue but from the steadily growing assurance with which the team was playing. The signs were there against Watford, and they proved themselves true.

So now the point in hand. Can we continue the momentum against Burnley? Is this side on the verge of putting together an indomitable run or have we just witnessed a flash in the pan? A quick survey of the coffee grinds reveals nothing of note and certainly nothing pertinent to the football. Our opposition promises obdurate, methodical defence and a George Graham like miserliness whenever they take the lead. Arsène said, in one of his many interviews last week, that Sean Dyche has come up with a system for Premier League survival, honed over his four years in charge, and based around efficiency and organisation.

This suggests that we will need to be at our fast, inventive and free flowing best to bypass an obdurate midfield and well drilled defence. We have of course had plenty of experience of siege warfare over the years. Teams are alleged to have hit upon two ways to frustrate Arsène Wenger’s side; kick ’em up in the air, or pack the defence and hope for the long ball counter attacking goal. I have often seen people bemoaning the fact that we appear incapable of dealing with either tactic to which I have a one word response. Phooey.

If we were truly unsuccessful when faced with the tactical defence employed by ninety percent of our opponents then we would hardly be finishing in the top four year on year would we? While it can be frustrating to watch sometimes the team generally does get their reward. The exceptions which prove the rule of course stick in the craw and take on a distorted importance in much the same way as the single grain of sand renders the Vaseline less efficacious than one might otherwise wish.

Having said that it is a gruelling business wearing down a dogged defence and can delay the crucial breakthrough until very late in the game. I suspect that rather than going fishing and assuming all will be well on the day, the greatest coach in the Premier League spends many of his waking hours turning over solutions to the problem in that overstuffed Gallic noggin of his. I also believe we are seeing the fruits of those mental labours played out on the pitch.

A subtle shift in tactics enabled by being able to augment the squad with the right kind of players, by patiently allowing key personnel to return to form after long spells of injury and shifting others positionally have all combined to a new, dare I say more ruthless version of Wengerball. Fast direct running with simple combinations such as that which left Theo romping into the open spaces behind the Basel defence for his second goal. Lofted passes over the massed ranks exploited by lightning quick, intuitive footballers coming from all over the pitch whether nominally wide midfielders, fullbacks or strikers. All of this combined with the tried and trusted patient passing moves designed to keep possession, frustrate the opposition and draw them out from their lair has achieved a heady brew of irresistible football.

My pesky inner editor wants me to sound a note of caution now. This entire caffeine fuelled piece, he says, has a ring of triumphalism surely out of place in a preview of events yet to pass. Once again I squash his objections and counter with this. I’m not predicting an easy win, heck I’ve not even predicted a win. All I’m doing is revelling in a purple patch, enjoying the sun while it shines and gathering ye rosebuds, in time honoured fashion, while I may. I don’t predict nor expect the wonderful form of the last two games to continue for the rest of the season, that would be a fatuous exercise in trying your patience. However I do firmly believe that if we can’t be happy and enjoy the sport when our team is playing well and winning then really, we should question whether we ought to be following the game at all.

If you’re travelling to Lancashire today, wrap up warm and I trust you’ll be in good voice. If you haven’t heard from me by four o’clock, send someone round to give me a poke, it’s just possible the coffee may have worn off and yesterday’s exertions have caught up with me. I’d hate to be sleeping when the the next chapter in this fascinating football story unfolds.

 

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Arsenal: “Winning Beautiful”

0fb268de6d4d1cfce49f00e7b22f38f4Good morning Positives old and young,

There is a concept much bandied about by the punditti of “Winning Ugly” which, on most occasions as far as I can see, involves a team playing poorly, having a slice of luck, clinging on like grim death to fortune’s undeserved award and making off with the points.

Well last night I think our lads may have coined/created the new concept of “Winning Beautiful”. Let me elaborate. I have in mind Arsenal were playing football of the highest quality from the start of the match, dominating the opposition all over the pitch for 92 minutes, scoring two delightful and entirely deserved goals. There was no fouling, diving or cheating, and we earned an entirely justified reward. Every man of the 14 who played was a credit to the club, to the fans and to their old Mums. So Mr Shearer, Mr Murphy and Mr Lineker poke that up your collective pipe of inane jargon for future reference.

Of the game itself I had the advantage of not seeing it live and suffered no distractions from social media. Santi buzzed like a hornet and I doubt he has had a more influential game in the past three seasons. Hector showed an attacking, creative flair that makes me wonder whether a Philip Lahm style move forward into midfield might not be in his future ( if of course we did not have such a plethora of talent across our middle regions). Another defensive masterclass from Kosc and Mustafi, with it taking an hour for the Swiss to land a shot of goal, and even that was from outside the box. Credit to Ospina, called from his slumber just once but his sharp Colombian hand saved the one decent effort from the Toblerone toilers.

But you are waiting for me to come to the two men on whom our evening pivoted, nay I would say “pirouetted”. I think we now all know why Arsene decide to persevere with Alexis as a striker don’t we ? The system just about clicked perfectly into place last night, with balls wedged over the top of the Basel defence to the Chilean, not too hard, not too soft, just perfect. And when it did not go over the Basel defence, Sanchez dropped short and went through them. It has taken five/six games to really work as well as it did last night, and for Santi, Mesut, Theo and Alex Iwobi to find the right wavelength but the reception as clear as a bell last night.

And top of the class our reborn right winger, the man of the moment, who can’t stop banging then in Theo Walcott. He absolutely terrified the Swiss left back Traore from the first whistle. The visitors never found an answer to his running. What struck me is there was so much confidence in the player last night, a certainty that when he took on man he would pass him, or hit a shot it would be on target.

For our visitors Vaclik was outstanding and the reason a 2-0 win was not 5.

It would have been pleasant to see a score that reflected our dominance, and the one irritation of the evening was the number of presentable chances that were not converted. Sanchez hoofing the advertising hoarding in frustration on 89 minutes indicated that he was not satisfied. That may however be a feature of “Winning Beautiful” – less is more.

Highly competent referee – young chap, just 33 – Danny Makkelie – I bet we hear more of him.

So onward to Turf Moor on Sunday and no doubt a rousing, meat and potato pie throwing welcome from Lancashire’s finest. A little rotation in order you ask ? We shall see. One tinkers with such precision engineering very carefully.

Enjoy your week.

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Arsenal Versus Basel: More Of The Same Please

please sir.jpg

I tend to avoid giving the idiots among us too much oxygen, the great leveller that is social media already ensures their vapid discharge receives more than enough attention. One theme which has somehow made it into the office past my secretary is the idea that as Arsène paid a lot of money for his new signings he should bloody well play them. With all the self righteous anger of the entitled, these infantile hysterics who have spent years demanding new signings finally get them, and guess what? The so called expert in charge refuses to pick them.

Of course they neatly cherry pick their arguments to fit the pre conceived narrative and so fail to mention Shkodran Mustafi who has gone straight into the team and has pretty rapidly shown us why. They just cannot understand why Lucas Pérez and Granit Xhaka don’t start every game and why we sent Joel on loan and kept Theo.

Now before I go on let me just say, in parenthesis, we here at PA claim no expertise. Nada, nix, zilch. We, unlike the drooling hordes of mindless trend followers who so pollute the atmosphere of any modern debate, are happy, nay delighted to accept that Arsène Wenger and all of his staff know infinitely more about running every aspect of a football club than we do or ever will. The only things we express here are skewed, narrow, prejudicial opinions based on no more than our gut instincts. I have an idea, an uninformed guess as to why the manager hasn’t automatically thrown the new boys into the pot all at once and it is no more than that.

Given the injury situation I believe he had to play Mustafi straight away. It would have destabilised the team to have too many new faces all at once and would hardly have been effective man management to ditch established quality first team players just because he had some shiny new ones in his back pocket.But there is a much bigger point. Arsène didn’t buy these players because Arsenal was desperate. We didn’t finish way off the pace in seventh, eighth or ninth position in the league last year. We came second. We had an excellent group of players albeit a squad with a few gaps in it due to the retirement of our skipper and a couple of old hands moving on to a quiet semi retirement.

Unlike other clubs we didn’t need to buy saviours because we weren’t in dire straits. We bought players to augment an already successful, top class outfit. Man United in contradistinction flung an obscene amount of cash at one player because they needed a talisman, someone to ignite belief that they might just still be in with a shout of rejoining the big boys club. It’s a club they and Liverpool left some time ago and pretenders like Spurs are making serious efforts to join. Arsenal, needless to say, has been a member for ever single year of Arsène’s time in charge.

So no, the manager doesn’t need to throw all his new trains straight onto the Hornby OO gauge track. Neither does he need to take any chances with those coming back from injuries. He can smooth the transition to the Premier League for the new faces and he can ease the wounded back into the fray. He is, in short, building from a position of strength.

Similarly the cup team we fielded against Forest was noticeably stronger than in recent seasons. In fact our cup side and our league side may start to appear quite distinct from one another, with Ospina or Martinez starting in goal and perhaps Lucas up front, Elneny being first first choice in midfield. Then again we have the option to field differing strength cup teams depending upon the perceived strength of our opponents – the permutations are quite fascinating – not to say mouth watering.

Our opposition this evening, while, in theory, not as formidable as Paris St Germain, cannot be taken for granted whatever the make up of our first eleven. Let’s face it, no one in the Champion’s League intends to roll over no matter who they play and Basel have form when it comes to shattering the illusions of cocky Premier League clubs. Unbeaten this season and with a 100% record in the league they have featured in one or other of the European competitions every year since 1999. So they are experienced, in fine form and have no reason to fear any British team.

I mention all this to dispel any of the ridiculous foregone conclusion, gung-ho nonsense some of our fellow fans mistake for positivity and confidence. Saying we ought to murder them just so that you can then berate your own side if you fail to bury the opposition under an avalanche of goals isn’t positivity it is a symptom of an unbalanced mind.

I am positive about tonight. I believe we are in great form both individually and collectively. I believe also that we have players on the bench and occasionally not even in track suits who are extremely capable and desperate to prove their worth if given the opportunity. Whether any of them will get that chance tonight remains to be seen but nothing would surprise me. We have the classic potential banana skin on Sunday with a trip oop north on the weekend following a Champion’s League tie. Under these circumstances we need players to be fresh and sharp. Having said that the season is yet young, the players supremely fit, and they don’t have to travel half way around the globe this evening so an unchanged side, Coquelin and Ospina excepted cannot be discounted.

As I sip from the lucky mug and contemplate another night of European football it is a relief to know that in you I have someone to share the moment, someone who doesn’t believe they know more than the manager but above all someone who recognises what a phenomenal achievement it has been simply to be here yet again. A top four finish isn’t some kind of booby prize it’s the holy grail of every club in the Premier League and we are lucky enough to a follow a team managed by a man who has delivered  on this goal year after year after year.

If you’re at the match I trust you’ll be in good voice, if not I’ll see you here at 7.45. Ćao za sada.

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Arsenal: Is this Streak For Real?

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Post Chelsea, in his usual wise manner the manager observed there is only 24-hours to savor a victory, even over a historic rival, after which it is time to focus on the hard work of winning the next game. See interview at https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=fN7btWOQJ3g

In contrast with Arsene, now that Arsenal is on a 5 game unbeaten run of 4 wins and 1 draw, even seasoned Black Scarfists are trying to locate a seat on the bandwagon rapidly filling-up at various way stations.

Intuitively, as supporters we are happy with a winning streak. But Saturday’s victory have sparked the usual over exuberant headlines and tweets.

Bleacher report could hardly contain themselves:
Chelsea Have Become a Fugazi, and Being Humiliated by Arsenal Proves It

Our good colleagues at Suburban Gooners, like so many of us, crowed that:
Arsenal are getting their swagger back

Those of us, who are seasoned supporters of Arsenal Football Club and observers of the ebb and flow of emotion among fans, know that often this show of support is simply a desire to not to appear irrelevant while the team is winning. Once there is the inevitable setback, all teeth will be bared and the attack dogs will be let loose all over Wenger and the club in direct contradiction to the underlying trends.

So does a 5 game unbeaten streak suggest we are in anyway close to winning the title? As usual it is important to review the underlying historical data, never afraid to recognize that: “In the silent statistical world, there are no headlines. There are no narratives. No excuses. No hope and no despair. Just data.”

As in the stock market, when there is an increase in the share price of a company there are usually thousands of punters piling-in further bidding up the prices in the hope the market will soar upward infinitely, a similar pattern is observed when a football team is on a good run. Such is the reaction of our fickle, celebrity fans like Piers.This piling-in, in the words of my mentors, is often a case of “unjustifiable” sensationalism based on irrational expectations.

To counter such irrational emotions, my task is to research the historical data to help reveal where exactly Arsenal is positioned. Hopefully you my readers will draw the appropriate conclusions. Fortunately for us http://www.statto.com maintains several years of data on “Season Longest Win Streak” in the PL which we can apply to AFC. As usual I divide the data between the Highbury and Emirates eras.

Highbury Years

W D L CS FtS Lge Pos
1996-97 4 2 2 5 2 3
1997-98 10 2 2 8 3 1
1998-99 5 4 1 6 3 2
1999-00 8 1 2 2 1 2
2000-01 5 2 2 4 3 2
2001-02 13 2 1 4 0 1
2002-03 5 2 2 3 1 2
2003-04 9 3 0 2 1 1
2004-05 5 2 1 4 1 2
2005-06 4 2 3 5 3 4
Min 4 1 0 2 0
Max 13 4 3 8 3
Mean 7 2 2 4 2

In their pomp at at Highbury, during Arsene’s winning years, the club would go on some statistically significant winning streaks, i.e. they were substantially above the mean averages in Wins (W). The 2001-02 season, in particular, Arsenal went on a rampage of 13 Wins out of 16 games which was marred by only 2 draws and 1 loss. By doing so they clearly separated the men from the boys.

During that era it is evident that Draws (D), Losses (L), Clean Sheets (CS) and Failed to Score (FtS) data did not seem to have any statistical significance in winning the title so long as they were kept on or around the mean average. Even the 2003-04 season, which was important for serving up zero (0) losses all season, during our best 12-game stretch Arsenal could only maintain two (2) Clean Sheets.  Remember that fact when this season you read or hear pundits, bloggers and podcasters panicking when opponents occasionally breach Arsenal’s defense and score a goal. While it is important to keep clean sheets, the championship years demonstrated it is more critical to be on the front-foot and amass those Wins. Worrying about Clean Sheets is just another case of “unjustified” sensationalism which helps to induce fear among Arsenal fans.

Compare and contrast Highbury with the barren championship years at the Emirates.

Emirate Years
W D L CS FtS Lge Pos
2006-07 5 2 3 2 2 4
2007-08 7 4 1 2 1 3
2008-09 5 5 2 4 4 4
2009-10 6 1 2 2 2 3
2010-11 3 3 2 4 1 4
2011-12 7 3 3 2 2 3
2012-13 4 2 2 3 2 4
2013-14 5 2 1 4 1 4
2014-15 8 3 2 3 1 3
2015-16 5 2 2 3 3 2
Min 3 1 1 2 1
Max 8 5 3 4 4
Mean 6 3 2 3 2

Not surprisingly the various metrics for longest winning streak are inferior to the Highbury years. Interestingly, in those years when the club exceeded the 10-year average of 6-Wins in a streak, i.e. in 2007-08 and 2014-15, they were good value for coming 3rd.  In contrast, even though Arsenal came 2nd last season, it is clear and apparent why this generated very little excitement among many fans; in its best winning streak the club could only amass a below average 5 Wins in comparison to a 10-year average of 6-Ws.

The biggest takeaway from the data of the last 10 years at the Emirates has been the Club’s inability to achieve an above-average run of Wins, of similar magnitude to  10, 13 and 9 which characterized the title-winning years of 1997-98, 2001-02 and 2003-04 respectively. Until the current squad can reach those heights, unlike the opportunistic Mr. Morgan, we at Positively Arsenal should curb the over-exuberance and keep the champagne on ice.