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Arsenal: The Trinity Of Excellence

cartier-bresson-giochi

Dila mshvidobisa Positivistas,

What a fine morning to be alive as an Arsenal supporter.

The milestone of Arsene’s 20th anniversary at the helm of our football club celebrated in glorious and emphatic fashion. An opponent club who have stood, and arguably still stand, for much of what is rotten in modern football flattened. The evening lit up by what is good in football, art, athletic excellence, intelligence, concentration, the unity of purpose of players working as one body, one mind.

Of the details of yesterday’s game against Chelsea? As I invariably say, you all saw it, but bear with me.

Three aspects of Arsenal stood out for me and each of which I think led to our overwhelming victory. First and foremost, an exceptionally disciplined defensive performance by our back five, aided by first Le Coq then Granit, in which no player lapsed. No one, literally no one, put a foot wrong until the 83rd minute when Batshuayai managed to nick the ball and break on goal, and Petr made his first save of the afternoon. 83 minutes! We tackled cleanly, we headed decisively, we cleared without hesitation, we ignored the Costasaurus and his increasingly absurd antics.

Many times have I, have WE indeed, seen a bright Arsenal performance undone by a silly defensive error, a half second of irresolution or a misdirected clearance. Against CFC, I hesitate to say, we have had a tendency more often than probably any other club over the past few years. Well not last night, not once, not one sniff of weakness. Entirely professional, not one petulant retaliation or response to provocation, we were faultless. That was an exceptional defensive base to build from.

And build we did. Second up two individual performances that stood out from Mesut and from Theo. The former has been ‘quiet’ since the start of this season, good of course but not quite the decisive game-changer week in and week out that we became used to. He roared back yesterday against a team that, in previous contests, he has found it difficult to get into the game against. He oozed class, he bamboozled, Ozil gave them the ‘eyes’, and they fell for them.  My second individual award to Theo who played what was his best ever game last night. As an attacking player he tore holes in the visitors all night and was unfortunate not to have more than one goal to his name. At least as impressive when we did not have the ball TW was constantly busy, chasing, denying space, putting in tackles and working seamlessly with Hector.

The third block on which the victory was built was the strength of our bench and the timing and the quality of our replacements. Returning to point one, if we have suffered self-inflicted defensive errors our efforts in so many games have also been undone by a sudden injury and the exit from the field of a key (midfield) player. Often an exact replacement has not been available, the disruption has killed our positive momentum in the game and, in the end, it has cost us. Xhaka for Le Coq caused barely a ripple. Straight off the bench and down to work. A tough, tackling midfielder for a tough, tackling midfielder. Like a clock mechanism, old spring out, new spring in. If the change of Xhaka was enforced then the introduction of Gibbs and the stability that brought to the left hand side was freely chosen and beautifully timed. Iwobi was tiring, Nacho had had a hard afternoon against Willian. Whatever Chels might have made of opportunities down that side was snuffed out, and to his credit Kieran not only assisted with defensive duties but put in a couple of creative touches that nearly added a fourth. And young Kieran is another man who has found previous games against Chelsea ‘problematic’. Goodness me Arsene got his choice of sub and the timing right.

As you can tell the seam of superlative descriptors has been heavily mined over the past hour, or should that be descriptive superlatives – and why not?

We stride purposefully into the 21st year of the reign of Mr Wenger at the club. Let our pace be assured, and our heads held high. There are great days ahead.

Enjoy Sunday.

 

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Arsenal Versus Chelsea : Mentioning No Names

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I was hoping to get through this morning’s epistle without mention of Chelsea’s erstwhile manager. Not the interim incumbent, I don’t mean him, I mean the one in charge when they started their title defence last season. I told myself that he is no longer there and is therefore no longer relevant and is the subject of so much journalistic and blogging hot air that it doesn’t need me to blow any more up his skirt.

There is a problem though. I simply can’t decide if Chelsea with him means the same as it does without him. In terms of rivalry it is of course a London derby between two of the capital’s biggest teams and as such will always carry more weight than a more humdrum fixture. Even without the Graceless One in the dugout or prowling the touchline there are still players likely to pull on the blue jersey for whom we can feel no love. There is one in particular who has built a reputation for scoring goals when many observers wonder how he is still on the pitch to score them such is his otherworldly ingenuity for unpunished foul play.

Despite the presence of such malevolent incarnations of footballing villainy the fixture has, for me, lost a little of its sting. I never hated Chelsea for being another London club. Neither living in nor hailing from the Big Smoke I shan’t add that hypocrisy to my list of faults. I disliked them for their association with the sudden jarring influx of unearned dirty money which so distorted the competitiveness of the league. I disliked many of their players in that pantomime way we fans have of caricaturing certain footballers from other teams. But mainly I didn’t like that oafish, pestilential sore of a man who so utterly epitomises all that is abhorrent in the modern game.

And now he’s gone. From Stamford Bridge at least. And with him a whiff of corruption has been lifted from today’s opponents. I don’t know a great deal about signore Conte except what I saw on the touchline at the recent European championships. His CV is pretty impressive though and we’d all do well to be wary of any side he manages, especially one which, along with the notable scoundrels, contains some extremely talented footballers.

They’ve started in a remarkably similar vein to us this season. Losing to Liverpool, picking up one away draw and winning the rest. Apart from beating Burnley by three their victories and defeat have been decided by the odd goal. What little we can deduce from these early season stats suggests they aren’t scoring by the bucket load but neither are they leaking many at the other end. A gambling man might think a draw the likely result.

I’m not a gambler. I have an inelegant sufficiency of other vices thank you very much, but were I to fancy a flutter I must confess to a certain bullish premonition on this fine autumnal morning. I think we’re due a bit of an upturn in our fortunes against Fulham’s finest. There is something about Arsenal this season which might give other sides pause for thought. A certain irascible refusal to bow to injurious destiny even in the face of such shockingly adverse circumstances as going a goal behind in the first minute in Paris.

Call it the silly superstitions of a foolish old man but I have a good feeling about Arsenal right now, a feeling which extends beyond the usual wishful thinking. The last time I had this positive tingle we went on to win the FA Cup so who knows? Of course come seven thirty this evening my upbeat mood may have taken a dent, sport is anything but an exact science, but win lose or draw today I can’t help thinking this squad has all the necessary elements to achieve something special.

The potential return of our Gallic heartthrob up front will give Arsène the kind of selection headache managers are reputed to enjoy, but we are in such a position of strength right now that he could easily decide to leave his number one striker on the bench rather than risk him from the start. Alexis has shown he is more than capable of playing up front. As the team adjusts to the more fluid style of a central striker who drifts around the line, he looks like an increasingly lethal option. Theo especially dovetails well with him, coming in off the wing when our Chilean dynamo leaves space in the middle. The other option, now his dreaded first goal is out of the way, is our new signing. Alexis, Pérez, Walcott would be a scarily fast front three, if a little on the diminutive side.

Of course which striker we choose won’t matter a hoot if Granit Xhaka gets a game. Just give him the ball anywhere on the pitch and if you’re stood in front of him for goodness sake duck. Should he start though? To my mind Santi hasn’t done anything to get himself dropped but with a European game on the horizon and with his understudy in compelling, goal scoring form maybe he gets a rest today. Maybe not. Whoever starts I’m happy to trust the judgement of those with the plan. As we say every week, second guessing the boss is a mugs game so let’s be content to wait and see.

Andy Nic’s friend with the whistle needs to have a good game today. The result may be unpredictable but what we can know for certain is one Chelsea player will be trying to get someone sent off from the moment the first ball is kicked. It is the kind of childish, odious approach to the game which deserves a disrepute charge, but no matter how unjust and no matter how righteous their cause our players simply cannot afford to react to his sly, niggling provocation. The rules of the game do not allow for self imposed justice, we have no choice but to hope that for once the officials are actually equal to the task and can prevent him from ruining what ought to be an excellent sporting contest.

Right, that’s enough from me, I have hash browns to prepare. If you’re at the game today I hope you’re in good voice, if not I’ll see you here at five thirty. Salut!

 

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Arsenal: Positive Intent on the Trent

Good Morning Positive Arsenal,

And how are each of you this fine Wednesday morning ?

Quite chipper I’d guess !

I suspect a lot of you, endured the fluctuations of technology while watching last night’s game, with streams coming and going, and providing a timely reminder of what reliable and comprehensive football coverage provides us. We may despise those damned TV corporations, bloodsuckers, leeches etc, but if that is the alternative their business model is safe for the foreseeable future.

Having dealt with that broadcasting foible a thoroughly enjoyable game took place. Our line up provoked a predictable mix of enthusiasm tinged with caution, with the mix of new faces, old’ish hands and promotions from the youngsters, and even in those promotions the position of Maitland-Niles at right back was a surprise to me. Perhaps the boldest initiative was the bench, with six teenagers in situ. As George said last night with a bench like that the Arsenal game plan is “shit or bust”.

Of the game itself and how these Wengerian schemes might work, or not perhaps? To quote Brian Clough “We talk about it for 20 minutes and then we decide I was right” and so Wenger’s selections and team set up proved that managerial aphorism almost perfectly, with Granit thumping in the first goal just 3 minutes shy of Old Big Head’s proposed schedule. Stand off the player 30 yards out and you will be punished. Did no one at Forest watch the Hull game ?

It is so, so important if you have a mix of young and experienced players that that first goal. After it went in we relaxed and every player had a little more confidence on the ball. Equally after a decent start Forest deflated after going a goal behind, the crowd noise sagged, the night for the home side slowly began to unravel. Very much a contrast to events at Hillsborough in our previous League Cup game.

Having gone ahead Forest kept up their end until half time, with a number of agricultural challenges that on another night might have led to greater official retribution. Martinez was never really troubled once week ahead. NF had one genuinely good player in Pereira, I thought. The rest were worker bees, willing but limited.

As a result, and as you saw, in the second 45 we strolled through the game. I was pleased to see Perez assert himself with a good aggressive goal. It is a long time since I have seen a centre back bullied off the ball like that. I thought his penalty was good as well. Almost like he practiced putting it beyond the keeper and into the corner !

Goal four for the Ox rounded off the evening, good for him and a boost to his still fragile confidence. His passing in the first half was, to put it bluntly, on occasions “wild”. A deep breath required young man.

All round a thoroughly competent performance. Young players all gained valuable experience, Elneny and Xhaka proving a cameo of an alternative high quality midfield pairing, Perez showed he is more than happy to “do it” on a Tuesday night in Nottingham. And NO injuries. Now that is a bonus.

Given it was the 12th anniversary of the death of Mr Clough I thought I would close with a second quote from that gentleman, made on the day the Invincibles passed the Forest unbeaten League record;

“I’m loath to confess they could be as good as us. They are brilliant. It sticks in the craw a little bit because nobody likes Arsenal! Of course there’s a Frenchman in charge, Wenger, and not many English people like Frenchmen. He is a top, top manager”

Enjoy the midweek. We have work on Saturday to look forward to.

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Arsenal Versus Forest: Keeping The Plates Spinning

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I’ve just discovered what EFL actually stands for. I’d long since given up paying too much attention to all the names by which the League Cup has styled itself. I never warmed to the Milk Cup, Littlewoods Cup nor the Rumbelows Cup, and by the time Coca-Cola got on board I’d had it with the corporate name changes and just stuck the the good old fashioned League Cup. So when I first saw EFL I assumed it was probably some multi national energy conglomerate or Chinese baby food manufacturer and, like a man at a buffet table who reaches a tray of undercooked and rapidly cooling eggs, I moved swiftly on.

You may readily imagine my surprise on discovering that, far from the Ezhou First-foods Laboratories or Energie Für Leben corporation, EFL simply stands for English Football League. Why then, given this simple return to a football based name, could they not have simply called the bloody thing the League Cup? Makes you wonder doesn’t it?

This is a competition which has always ruffled the feathers. Born a only couple of years before I was it was conceived as a consolation prize for those knocked out of the FA Cup. As such it has always been a poor relation to its illustrious forebear and occupied a similar place in the football hierarchy as the Europa League does today. Worth winning yes, but very much the silver medal contest. In fact clubs often disdained even to take part, until compelled to in the 1971-72 season. The ‘big’ clubs, an amorphous description if ever there was one, only really sat up and took any notice of it when the final moved to Wembley and the winners were guaranteed a place in European competition.

So when anyone suggests that Arsenal are disrespecting a venerable competition by fielding a second or even third string team you may blow a long, wet and noisome raspberry at them. When launched back in the early sixties the average attendance at League Cup games was about that of a third division match. I don’t actually believe that Arsène disrespects any competition. In fact I’m not entirely sure an imaginary construct such as a football tournament can be disrespected. It can’t exactly take offence can it? In any event our manager is competitive by nature, prizing winners above all other sportsmen and would want to win every match, every competition in which his side takes part.

I enjoy the League Cup enormously. There is slightly less pressure around it and given the presence of fringe players and ebullient youth we have been treated to many exciting matches during Arsène’s reign. I always want us to make it to the final if for no other reason than to see the likes of Jeff, Noddy Holding, Chuba and Ospina get a good run of games. Also it is the perfect opportunity to settle new faces into the first team away from the intensity of the Premier League.

Tonight we travel to the City Ground Nottingham where we’ll face, among others, one of our old League Cup alumni, Henri Lansbury. Lansbury’s most famous moment came when he scored against the Tiny Totts in the 2010 iteration of the competition and I confess to thinking that surely here was a future star of the Arsenal first team. His, and the experience of many others before and since, is not merely a salutary warning to those of us who think we can see into a young player’s future. It also serves as a timely reminder as to just how breathtakingly good the likes of Hector and Alex Iwobi are to make it through from the youth teams to the first.

Raw talent is not enough. Scoring against frail and second rate opposition like Spurs in a third rate tournament is not enough. The blend of composure, skill, strength and whatever the magic X factor is which only Arsène can see are so rare that it is incredibly difficult to correctly predict which of the youngsters will go on to make the grade. Given our increased muscle in the transfer market, the gap through which they must squeeze has now become even more narrow.

So my advice is to enjoy watching the kids that manage to make it into the League Cup side and don’t bother looking too much farther ahead. This may be the only night or the only season they get to shine for us and so we should take their performances at face value and not project too much of a future for them. Of course, given the depth of our squad and the quality of players who cannot even be guaranteed a place on the subs bench these days there may not be too many fresh faces in the first eleven anyway.

What of our opponents tonight? Managed by Philippe Montanier, after eight Championship matches they suffer the indignity of sitting below the second best team in Bristol. They are, on their day, a free scoring side who have racked up eleven goals in the three league games they’ve won this season. They won both of their previous League Cup matches away from home and, despite setbacks at Brighton and Brentford, should not be underestimated.

Montanier has come under some criticism for his policy of rotation having used more players than any other Championship manager so far this season. While I accept that a settled first eleven which can build real and deep understandings all over the pitch is as important an element in a winning team as any other, I believe that in the modern game learning to manage and employ a big squad is a vital skill. With playing staff pushed to the absolute peak of fitness injuries seem almost inevitable. With so many matches being played and at such a ferocious pace players have to be rested in order to maximise their potential. It’s a balancing act and keeping all those plates spinning is the lot of the modern manager.

Apart from Henri Lansbury another familiar name on the Forest books is Armand Traore. Still only twenty six, Traore was another League Cup player from our academy who never quite bridged the gap to the top level. Oh and there is one other you may remember. Six feet four inches tall, twenty eight years old,  former star of both Tårnby Boldklub and Kjøbenhavns Boldklub, Danish international, top knot wearing, tattooed, hat-trick scoring star of one of our greatest ever League Cup triumphs, the five nil drubbing of Leyton Orient. I speak of none other than Lord Bendtner of Copenhagen.

Love him or really love him, I will always remember with great fondness his winner against Spurs after coming on as a substitute way back in 2007. He high fived Emmanuel Eboué, trotted into the penalty area and scored with a Roy Of The Rovers header. Timed at 1.8 seconds (the clock only started ticking when the corner was taken) it remains the fastest ever goal from a substitute.

Well, that’s enough from me. Enjoy the fun and games if you can, I’m not sure who if anyone is screening the match. I have a band practice tonight so will be going dark until the highlights are posted online. Ciao for now Positivistas.

 

 

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Arsene vs Pep? As Some Arsenal Bloggers Lose The Plot

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Fresh after the Gunners win over Southampton last week, my roving eyes caught a blog that made we weep for everything that is Arsenal. Rather than using his blog to provide his readers with an insight into what Arsene is trying to achieve, the blogger used his headline and more than half of his subsequent prose to praise the manager of a rival team, writing giddy odes to his tactical brilliance.

“Pep Guardiola did something that I have always wanted Arsene Wenger to do: he bested Mourinho tactically.”

“And then I watched Arsenal. Maybe I shouldn’t watch Arsenal after watching a tactical masterclass like the one that Guardiola puts on.”

What would drive someone to crown Pep as king after a mere 4 weeks in the most ruthlessly competitive league in the world? Arsene Wenger went 16 years toe-to-toe with the most successful ever British coach, Alex Ferguson, the manager of the flag-bearer of English football, fought him to a draw in his 1st nine years. At the time Wenger had the players to compete and only fell behind when the club had to forego spending on the squad to focus on paying for the club’s new stadium.

During Arsene’s barren years Pep was given the chance to succeed with one of the members of the duopoly in Spain and thereafter had a similar gig at Bayern who are the colossus in German football. Fair play to the Spaniard for his brilliant success at both clubs but he and his sycophants will be badly mistaken if they think he will have a similarly easy ride in the PL where clubs like United and Chelsea can match his spending as well as acquire managers with comparable acumen. Not the least in the competitive landscape is Arsene and Arsenal who have closed the gap in financial resources and have 20 years of consistent success in the PL despite failing to win the PL since 2004.

But our blogger above and his cohorts, according to our “greed and despair” model (see Fear and Despair vs The Arsenal), find it easier to prey on their readers by sensationalizing Arsenal’s slow start to make predictions of doom and gloom.  Underlying the doom-mongering is their wistful desire that Arsene may be somehow eased out of his position. Not surprisingly the data tells a completely different story. (By the way 20 years of Wenger has provide us with a richness in numbers that is unparalleled among current EPL managers; 760 matches in one league across different eras and circumstances. When he retires my role on this blog will be redundant.)

I reviewed the 20 year history of Wenger’s teams to compare 1st Half of season performance vs 2nd Half. The summary statistic below is quite benign. It suggests under Wenger we have consistently averaged 74 points over a season with a relative evenness between 1st Half and 2nd Half . The data suggests there is no statistical difference in either points or league position.

Year 1st Half – Pts 1st Half – Pos 2nd Half – Pts Final – Pos Diff in Pts Diff in Pos
20 yr Mean 37 3 37 3 0 0

However, as you my regular readers are aware, the Wenger years must best be divided into two eras; Highbury vs Emirates, i.e. years with money to spend vs years without.

Highbury Years

Year 1st Half – Pts 1st Half – Pos 2nd Half – Pts Final – Pos Diff in Pts Diff in Pos
1996-97 36 2 32 3 -4 -1
1997-98 33 6 40 2 7 4
1998-99 32 5 46 1 14 4
1999-00 36 4 34 2 -2 2
2000-01 35 2 35 2 0 0
2001-02 36 2 51 1 15 1
2002-03 39 1 39 2 0 -1
2003-04 45 2 45 1 0 1
2004-05 41 2 42 2 1 0
2005-06 33 6 34 4 1 2
Mean Avg 37 3 40 2 3 1

Viola! In the years with money to spend Arsenal was not only a very competitive team, averaging 2nd place in the league, but most importantly we were a “2nd Half of the season team”. The club tended to become better as the season rolled on, showing over ten years an average three (3) point superiority in the second half. But what is most striking, in two of those three years when AFC came 1st, 1998-99 and 2001-02, the club battered its opponents in the 2nd half of the season, increasing its points haul by 14 and 15 points respectively.  There were only two out of those ten years that AFC had lesser points in the 2nd half of the season.  Eight out of ten years the club either maintained consistency or kept improving.

So there is a clear historical pattern by Wenger, when he had money, for his teams to generally improve as the season wears on. Yet we have a blogger who claims to “discuss Arsenal in a rational and calm manner” choosing to make Pep’s battering of a rival manager, who was then losing his 12th game in 30, the occasion to slaughter the boss of his own club and to opine that his club is not worth watching. Isn’t this the definition of “irrational behavior” as I discussed in my previous blog Lucas Perez: Another Eduardo-type signing!

So what of the later era? What does the data tell?

Emirates Years

Year 1st Half – Pts 1st Half – Pos 2nd Half – Pts Final – Pos Diff in Pts Diff in Pos
2006-07 33 4 35 4 2 0
2007-08 44 2 39 3 -5 -1
2008-09 23 3 32 4 9 -1
2009-10 41 3 27 4 -14 -1
2010-11 36 3 32 4 -4 -1
2011-12 36 4 34 3 -2 1
2012-13 33 5 40 4 7 1
2013-14 42 1 37 4 -5 -3
2014-15 42 1 33 3 -9 -2
2015-16 39 1 32 2 -7 -1
Mean Avg 37 3 34 4 -3 -1

Obviously a clear and sharp drop-off compared to the Highbury era. Not only has the average total points fallen from 77 to 71 but there has been a constant decline between the 1st and 2nd Half of the season, from 37 to 34 points.  Seven out of the ten years AFC’s points accrual went backwards, as much as 14 points in 2009-10. In contrast to Highbury, instead of our league position improving from 1st Half to 2nd Half, seven out of ten times it deteriorated.

Now there is a statistical glimmer of light in this data for Arsenal fans. Over the past ten years the average difference in league position between the 1st and 2nd Half of the season was a -1, with only two of the ten years showing a negative swing of two positions or more. As is well known, in the heat of competition Wenger and his teams have made every effort to qualify for the champion’s league. Furthermore the data demonstrates, without need for headlines, that over the past three successive seasons AFC has consistently improved its final league position despite a relatively large negative swing in points between 1st and 2nd Half of these seasons, ranging from -5 to -9.

Clearly if the club can reduce the negative swing of the past ten years and even resume the Highbury pattern of dominating in the 2nd Half of the season, then Pep or no-Pep Arsenal should be contending for the title.

As I previously tried to make the point in my prior blog Now Mr. Wenger Is The Inferior Manager, no professional investor would bet against Wenger’s consistency. To the contrary they would take advantage of the annual emotionally-driven, doom-mongering predictions that Arsenal will finish outside the top-four and take a position against the plebs. I am sure the book-makers play that game as well, posting odds that will induce many punters to bet against the Arsenal. No doubt they have been laughing all the way to the bank.

Now that Manchester United is imploding under Mourinho’s ineptitude and offensive cowardice, despite showing “ambition” and spending £150 million “early” in the transfer window, who is still willing to go all-in with Pep after 5-games into this new season?

No doubt many of you are familiar with that Jamaican cult classic movie and the theme song by Jimmy Cliff; “The Harder They Come, The Harder They Fall.”

Data source: http://www.statto.com

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Arsenal: As 99 Red Balloons Go By

99rbLadies and gentlemen of the Positively Arsenal persuasion I bid you good morn,

Distinctly grey and damp up in Norfolk. There will be calls for “heating” later I suspect.

What of yesterday’s game ? I admit I settled into the game confident of the three points and a decent ++score although, given that Hull’s previous home games this season had been a win against the Champions on the opening day and a last, last minute one goal defeat to the team currently managed by a Portuguese from Salford, quite why I was so entirely nerveless I am unsure.

Irrational though my certainty may have been as the afternoon developed my position was justified by our dominance of the ball, our slicing the home side apart at will and, but for some tidy keeping and less than clinical finishing on our part, we would/should/could have been 4-5 ahead by half time, and into double figures by the time Mr East halted the event. I saw the possession statistics were just 60/40 in our favour. If that is accurate then all I can say is all our possession must have all been in their half and around their penalty area. The home side barely crossed the half way line with serious intent.

With a final score of 4-1, reliant on two late strikes ironically, the gulf between the sides was not demonstrated. Nevertheless it would have been unnecessarily cruel for Hull to have been entirely thrashed and for the 7-8 goals our performance probably should have racked up. The home side did their best, did not resort violence and when they went down to ten men their dogged refusal to give up is to their credit.Would it have made a jot of difference if Livermore had stayed in ? No.

Analysis ? Wenger has decided that Sanchez is a striker and is persevering in that project. I am delighted. The Chilean certainly has the raw talent to play in any position on the field, and to play well. I thought he was excellent yesterday. I see it was Alexis’ 99th game for us yesterday, hence the photograph above.

Iwobi was in for the Ox I think and he too had a fine afternoon. For such a young player to exert a decisive influence, to change the course of a game for the second time in four days, is the mark of real talent. The stats record six shots from him in his 77 minutes, and that strike rate is what we need from our midfield. I expect I shall soon forget his age.

A third laurel wreath for Mustafi who, as I said after his first game, looks like he has been playing for us for ages. Defensively he did not have much to do yesterday but after a hard game on Tuesday he was probably due an afternoon with his feet up. What struck me yesterday about our new German centre back is that, unlike Per, when the ball is passed to him at the back he is a) almost always further forward on the pitch rather than lurking in 10 metre square empty quadrant, and b) he distributes it forwards quickly. There is a little bit more speed/urgency in which we start attacking moves because that first pass gets off quicker. To be fair to the player also he is a confident passer, a typical Wenger footballer who looks up and sees the whole pitch.

Forward guidance ? Third in the League and not, despite our total dominance at the KCOM, quite hitting top gear yet, though each game has seen the fitness and meshing of our players improving. A sideshow on Tuesday, though one I am looking forward to as Forest are an old opponent whose virtue has been besmirched by poor owners and bad personnel decisions. And then, next Saturday, Conte, Costa and their Satanic Majesties roll into the Ems. I can feel my pulse beat just a little faster at that thought, and that is the exquisite pleasure of being a football fan.

Have a restful and contemplative Sunday, I shall.

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Arsenal Versus Hull: How Do You Like Them Apples?

An Apple A Day...

Anyone who knows me knows of my interest in obsession, addictive behaviour and the curiously exaggerated importance we attach to football. Anyone who reads Positively Arsenal (you for instance) is an example of the most successful evolutionary outcome the world has ever seen. Intelligent beyond the imagination of our ancient ancestors, dangerous and powerful by many magnitudes beyond the limits of all other species. Don’t believe the Netflix programme Zoo. There is nothing the animal kingdom could ever do to threaten us now. We are mighty. We are at the very pinnacle of the selective process.

And yet we actively choose to allow a football match to dictate our mood each week. Not even the whole match either. The result alone can send us spinning to the depths of sullen, ill tempered misery. Snappish with those we love, enraged out of all proportion with anyone foolish enough to cross us.

I recently experienced a further manifestation of this football related mental disorder. I’ve been reading Homo Deus by Yuval Noah Harari. It’s a book full of fascinating insights into the algorithmic processes which drive our behaviours and just how little real choice or free will we actually have. In one section he describes experiments into the way the brain can be stimulated artificially. Scientists can entirely control the actions and desires of lab rats and are quick to reassure those concerned with animal rights that it’s all OK – the rats are convinced they’re enjoying the experiments because the scientists make them think they are.

Similar techniques are employed on humans to relieve depression, to make people feel they are making certain choices and are enjoying those choices. Trans cranial direct current stimulators are complex helmets worn by test subjects. They use electrical impulses fired directly at specific areas of the brain. Sally Adee, a journalist for the New Scientist agreed to take part in an experiment. She entered a combat simulation suite wearing such a helmet having previously attempted the ‘game’ without it. The first time she was terrified, panicked, and  in a real situation would have  very quickly been overcome by her assailants. When back in the suite and with the helmet taking charge of her mood, reflexes and choices she was transformed into a kind of Zen Rambo, calmly picking off every attacker in a relaxed, blissful, methodical orgy of virtual killing.

Without the usual humdrum human distractions of self doubt and external pressures Adee was turned into a proto futuristic super human. And what do you suppose was my first thought on reading about her experience? An operatic vision of the future of all human kind? A clear and terrifying insight into the techno-dystopia which awaits us? Nope. I pictured Santi Cazorla, his micro chip implants aglow, banishing all anxiety and the very possibility of failure as he stepped forward to take the winning penalty in the Champion’s League Final. Football. Of course. It invades almost every bloody thought we have.

Where Hull City are concerned Santi has already written his name on the Arsenal history book, never mind it’s future. Without any artificial support or stimulation, relying only on the natural ice water in his veins he placed as perfect a free kick as you could hope to see over the Tiger’s wall and put us back into the FA Cup final at as good a moment as he could have chosen. The rest, as they say is cliché, but I believe it was that moment which sparked the latest successful chapter in Arsène and Arsenal’s illustrious story.

Poor Hull have really suffered against us in that particular competition. In the league one would need to go back to 2008 for their last victory over us and all the way back to 1915 for the win before that. So history suggests the three points should be eminently achievable. Of course as Mark Twain said “History doesn’t repeat itself, but it does rhyme.”  Although I’m not sure quite how much to read into that where today’s game is concerned.

Hull were written off by the ‘experts’ before a ball had been kicked this season. Losing their long time manager, short of players, the subject of takeover attempts, and with unrest among the fans in the stadium their return to the Premiership looked less than triumphant. And so of course they proceeded to beat the champions on the opening day and won their following two matches coming a cropper at Old Trafford by the only goal of the game before drawing away to Burnley. Their caretaker boss picked up the manager of the month for August and now we travel to the KCOM stadium on equal points with the home side unsure precisely what to expect.

Traditionally the game against unfancied opposition in the week of a Champion’s League fixture is seen as a potential banana skin. In truth any Premier League side presents a threat, no results are guaranteed. While we have been treated to some thoroughly entertaining games so far this season I can’t say the machine has been running as smoothly as I might have hoped. A couple of players have looked a little short of form and the team as a whole hasn’t seemed as coherent as we have come to expect.

I strongly suspect the hangover from the international tournament, allied to the new faces in the squad has hampered smooth progress. Arsène must take into account the players who require a long lead time into the season following their gruelling summer, those coming back from injuries and those he needs to integrate into their new surroundings. He has unsurprisingly stuck with tested combinations where he can and used the new guys sparingly. The obvious exception is Mustafi who, given the injury problems in his particular area of expertise, has had to get straight on with the job .

These issues will of course cease to be a problem as the season progresses. The crucial thing is to keep grinding out the results until things settle down. As much as I’d like a repeat of the first half of the Watford game I’ll settle for the grim determination with which we climbed back into the saddle after PSG looked like they had knocked us clean out of our stirrups in the first minute. Will we see a changed team sheet? You know what, I never used to play those silly selection games so beloved of the amateur footy writer and so far when I have pondered on the likely line up I’ve been sufficiently wide of the mark to remind me why I don’t pad out the blog with such nonsense.

All we know for sure is Arsène’s preferred back five and that when fit, Mesut and Alexis will be very likely to start. The other four places are anybody’s guess. Why football fans like to moan about the manager’s selection is truly baffling. Naturally we have our favourites and we always want to see our favourites play but there is something wrong with your mental health not the manager’s if you think that should have any bearing on team selection.

Your green grocer knows best how many Granny Smiths he’s likely to need to order for any given week. You don’t. All you know is when you fancy an Egremont Russet for a change but he has sold out of them you experience disappointment. It doesn’t mean the greengrocer is a moron nor that it’s appropriate for you to call him one. It certainly doesn’t qualify you to lecture him on which apples he ought to stock.

Anyway, whatever the line up with which  the man in the know decides to go there are players who will be either keen to keep their places with a very strong bench breathing down their necks or others extremely motivated to shine if given a chance to start. All of which ought to bode well for the team and therefore for us super evolved, highly intelligent, mega beings who’s happiness is entirely dependant on them having a good day at the office.

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Arsenal: Little Bit Steel, Little Bit Lace

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Good Morning Positivistas.

A hard-earned but deserved point earned in Paris last night against a home side who performed better than I anticipated and on the back of a performance from us, over the 94 minutes, that I would give no more than 7/10.

I was not remotely surprised to see David Ospina start. He is a top ‘keeper and needs time on the pitch. I was surprised to see Xhaka on the bench but Le Coq and Santi is evidently AW’s current preferred starting combination.

It appeared that new man Emery had told his lads in blue to get into us from referee Kassai’s first whistle. An understandable tactic and one that clearly paid an immediate dividend with a good run and cross from Aurier, and a great angled header from Cavani. We were barely off our stool when we found ourselves flat on our collective backs in 42 seconds. Ouch!

Thereafter for the next 15 minutes PSG worked with feverish energy to deny every Arsenal player any time and space. We could barely get the ball let alone keep possession and our hosts’ aspirations to be among the genuine CL contenders were amply demonstrated. I imagine this is what the home crowd are used to with so little domestic competition. We were holding on, but only just.

However, after that opening 15-20 minute frantic phase, their pace dropped a notch and gradually, very gradually, we began to get control of the ball. We began to string two or three passes together, we approached their box with just a hint of threat. My view was that the remainder of the first half was 50/50. We had more possession and spent more time in their half. They sat back and relied on a breakaway or error, with Cavani failing to hit the target with one fair chance, and missing the ball altogether eight yards out. £55 million eh – what does it get you nowadays?

The second 45 I thought we began with more pace and energy, and tightened up in midfield. Passing that had been wayward became a little more careful. Defensively the threat of Aurier raiding Nacho’s territory was quelled after a testing first 45 for the Spaniard.

To and fro the game went, a couple of heart-in-mouth moments which Ospina dealt with well. He is a goalkeeper, that is what he does although the apparently incredulous commentators, each time he made a save, did not appear to really ‘get’ that. By full time the collective media narrative had been changed to these Parisian goal scoring chances being “missed” by Cavani and/or Di Maria, with David seemingly a passive bystander.

For us as the half progressed, with Olivier on and Sanchez in his more familiar flank role, we created a couple of half chances for us but without really testing the delightfully named Alphonse Areola.

In the end however the home side cracked, as we knew they must. For one of the few times in the evening we had a lot of players in the box, Iwobi was faster to the ball than the home defenders, his blocked shot hammered back past Areola. One half-chance to Alexis, one goal. Excellent finishing. PSG looked shocked, I don’t know why. These things happen if you are only 1-0 up.

The final 15 minutes whizzed by, chances at both ends. Well done to both teams who went for the result rather than settle for what was, for both, an acceptable point.

Standout for Arsenal on the night was Iwobi, Ospina, Le Coq and Santi. Given he was on an early card Francis definitely deserved a pat on the back. When he did get on for the final 20 minutes I also thought Granit did well. He brought just the correct length and width of steel and at just the right time.

The mainstream media last night was focussed on PSG’s Cavani and Aurier last night, the former as a figure of ridicule in the end, the latter for a good attacking full back effort. I was also much struck by Matuidi who worked well as a wide attacking midfielder. He is big, fast and tough and Hector does not have to face any like that in England.

The red cards? I did not see it. I may look later.

Enjoy your Tuesday. A spare day before the game at Hull on Saturday. I am off to Leeds in a few minutes so I shall be living the dream.

010227

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Arsenal Versus Paris St Germain: No Good Deed Goes Unpunished

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What is the greatest of all human qualities? Charity? Self sacrifice for the greater good? Giving with no expectation of personal gain? I suspect these and variants thereof would figure pretty highly on everybody’s list. How about humility, modesty and a humble willingness to allow one’s good deeds to increase anonymously the water in the well of human kindness?

All of this and more can and should be applied to many altruistic, humanitarian, noble, and self effacing people working the world over with tireless dedication to alleviating suffering and fighting injustice. But there is another entirely forgotten, overlooked and ill used species of human for whom no eulogies will be read and no tears shed. I speak of the humble football blogger who despite churning out a thousand words in anticipation of Saturday’s Premier league clash with Southampton is expected a mere three days later to come up with another carefully honed verbal sculpture.  Not only that but he is presumed to be content writing about a game which (and it is painful merely to contemplate typing these words) he will not even be able to watch himself.

One of the many great achievements of Arsène Wenger’s tenure in north London has been continuous qualification for the Champion’s League. A staggering achievement for any manager at any club but when one factors in the years of thrift and expediency when paying for a new stadium during a global financial crisis it is quite simply astonishing. Our reward for supporting him in his endeavour comes on days like these, when our beloved team gets to pit its wits against the best of the best in European club football.

The fixture dwarfs the domestic cup competitions and throws a deep shadow over its classé neighbour The Europa League. To miss the opening of this season’s European campaign is unthinkable. To miss it and still step up and write for the pleasure of those lucky or sensible enough to be watching is an act surely worthy of sainthood.

But I don’t want to draw attention to my own plight. It is a given that charity and true selflessness are conducted quietly and away from the spotlight. I shall soldier bravely on knowing that at least my friends will be settling down on their sofas this evening with a chilled six pack of Bavarian Pilsner and a family bag of paprika Kettle Chips ready to witness the curtain raiser on our tilt at the European crown.

In case you have recently arrived from Alpha Centauri allow me to explain. Arsenal are travelling to Paris this evening to play against the Champions of French Ligue Une. Champions for the previous four seasons I might add and a side who boast such luminaries of world football as Adrien Rabiot, Serge Aurier, Ángel Di María, Layvin Kurzawa and Lucas Moura. Last year PSG coasted through their qualifying group just three points behind Real Madrid, the eventual winners. They brushed aside Chelsea in the round of sixteen before losing by the odd goal in the Quarter finals to Manchester City. It’s fair to say then that they’ve had mixed results against British clubs in recent times.

Given their resources and immediate history in the competition one would expect them to top the group and stroll into the the next round. I’d like to think that Arsène’s army can shove a stick into the spokes of that particular wheel, starting tonight. Unfortunately in the last two years we’ve not started well in the Champion’s League, losing both of our opening matches. However as I’m sure Shotta would point out these results were statistical anomalies when compared with an unbroken string of unbeaten opening games stretching back to 2003.

Neither side has been in great form recently. After a good start to their season our opponents were roundly gubbed by Monaco and suffered the ignominy of a late, late equaliser against St Etienne. As you know, but for the benefit of our inter galactic visitor I’ll say it anyway, Arsenal have yet to hit their stride this season. Ending up on the wrong side of a seven goal opening day thriller with Liverpool the subsequent games have seen us unable to find the net at Leicester, brilliant for forty five minutes at Watford and patchy against Southampton. I like to think that the first half at Vicarage Road is the true indicator of what is to come and once we regain our touch and composure the Wengerball will start to flow again.

It’ll be interesting to see who starts up front tonight. I thought the new boy showed a good work rate and some nice touches but looked, unsurprisingly, as if he was unfamiliar both with and to his team mates. Whereas in Olivier they have a man who’s game they know and understand. The biggest difference seemed to me to be in hold up play. Larry is possessed of preternatural touch and control combined with massive strength. He is adept at winning and keeping the ball and turning it around the corner for the midfield runners to carry the threat beyond the central defenders. Perez or Lucas or whatever we’re supposed to call him (I’m sure I’ll be told) seemed to look more for the immediate one touch lay off enabling him to spin in anticipation of the return pass, and go beyond the defence himself.

Both are perfectly acceptable strategies but in Olly’s case the players around him know the game and play to his strengths, whereas at times Lucas Perez caught them unawares. Will the bedding in process continue from the start or will the manager opt for continuity, familiarity and a man proven able to play alone up front on a difficult European night? We shall see. The other decision seems to me to be a choice between Granit and Francis and Santi. Perm any two from three. Given Santi’s age and his endeavours against the Saints on Saturday will we see a less creative but more solid anchor or will the tried and tested SC / FC axis be preferred?

If any of this has any bearing on the manager’s thoughts then whither Mo Elneny? Withering on the vine or flourishing under the Parisian spotlights? This squad really does throw up some fascinating conundrums. All will of course be revealed to those of you fortunate enough to be glued to your screens this evening. Some of us however, and I mention no names, are giving their time to a good cause and must miss the match. The less charitable among you may suspect that I agreed to this evening’s task in a moment of forgetfulness not realising there was a match tonight. I prefer to see myself as the martyr laying down his love of the beautiful game to help out a pal. But like Smashy and Nicey, while I may do a lot of good deeds, I don’t like to talk about them too much.

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Is Mustafi Arsenal’s Most Important Signing?

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With very minor exceptions the signing of Shkordan Mustafi, 2 days before deadline day, was met with the usual sensationalist delight by the mainstream media. Most reveled in Arsenal’s contribution to English football setting a new transfer record of £1.2b this past window.

In terms of footballing analysis most saw it simply as Wenger turning to Mustafi to ease his defensive crisis. According to Sky Sports:

The £35m fee is considerable. But it might just be money well spent. Mustafi has the quality to be a significant upgrade on Gabriel Paulista and with Mertesacker turning 32 this month, there’s a vacancy to be filled. 

Very few of the pundits seem to look beyond the price tag, Tom Adams of ESPN seemed unto something when he observed that:

In such lavish times, it is possible to miss the importance of a transfer fee even as high as the £35m Arsenal have reportedly paid for the 24-year-old Mustafi, who became the second signing of the most expensive day in Wenger’s career with the earlier capture of Spanish forward Lucas Perez for £17m making Arsenal’s total outlay on Tuesday a cool £52m. These are not the biggest deals of the summer by any means. Yet in particular, the signing of Mustafi from Valencia is hugely significant.

Yes the transfer is considerable based on the past five years of signings by Wenger:

SEASON PLAYER COST (£)
2013-14 Mesut  Ozil        42,500,000
2014-15 Alexis Sánchez        35,000,000
2016-17 Shkodran Mustafi        35,000,000
2016-17 Granit Xhaka        33,800,000
2012-13 Santi Cazorla        20,000,000
2014-15 Calum Chambers        16,000,000
2014-15 Danny Welbeck        16,000,000
2012-13 Olivier Giroud        13,000,000
2011-12 Alex Oxlade-Chamberlain        12,000,000
2014-15 Mathieu Debuchy        12,000,000
2012-13 Lukas Podolski 11,000,000
2011-12 Gervinho        10,600,000
2011-12 Mikel Arteta        10,000,000
2011-12 Per Mertesacker        10,000,000
2015-16 Petr Čech        10,000,000
2012-13 Nacho Monreal          8,300,000
2011-12 André Santos          6,200,000
2015-16 Mohamed Elneny          5,000,000
2014-15 David Ospina          3,000,000
2011-12 Park Chu-Young          3,000,000
2011-12 Joel Campbell             950,000
2011-12 Thomas Eisfeld             475,000

The ESPN man did not need to be a rocket scientist when noting:

Over the past five years Not only is the German the joint second most expensive signing in Arsenal’s history, along with Alexis Sanchez and Granit Xhaka, he is also the most expensive defender Wenger has signed by some distance, his fee dwarfing the £16m paid for Calum Chambers two summers ago.

But then his analysis stopped short, restricting himself to the conclusion that:

It is … a riposte to the very vocal elements of the support who have demanded that Wenger spend some money. This summer, Wenger cannot be accused of going AWOL in the transfer market or treating the club’s vast resources like his last tranche of personal savings. The best part of £90m has been spent on new players. Arsenal have not stood to the side, holding their nose in disgust while other clubs have indulged in an orgy of greed; they have, belatedly, become willing participants.

We at PA cannot restrict ourselves to such trite analysis. As my investment advisers would warn, beware of cherry-picking of data “to reinforce emotional responses”.

Many of us are now increasingly aware that Wenger has been rebuilding a squad that can truly compete for the title. He has been ruthless and deliberate. Note that of the class of 2011-12, with the exception of Mertesacker and The Ox, none of the others have made the cut for 2016-17. They have either been sold, loaned or let go as their contract expired.  Meanwhile forwards, midfielders and goalkeeping positions have been reinforced by very capable, experienced players. Ozil, Sanchez and Cech are indisputably among the very best, to use that hackneyed phrase, world-class. Why therefore such a heavy expenditure on a defender?

The key can be found in the data from my last blog when I compared Wenger’s Highbury vs Emirate years.

Highbury Years

Year Wins D L GF GA GD PTS POS
96-97 19 11 8 62 32 30 68 3
97-98 23 9 6 68 33 35 78 1
98-99 22 12 4 59 17 42 78 2
99-00 22 7 9 73 43 30 73 2
00-01 20 10 8 63 38 25 70 2
01-02 26 9 3 79 36 43 87 1
02-03 23 9 6 85 42 43 78 2
03-04 26 12 0 73 26 47 90 1
04-05 25 8 5 87 36 51 83 2
05-06 20 7 11 68 31 37 67 4
Mean Avg 23 9 6 72 33 38 77 2.0

Contrary to current mythology, at Highbury we were never a rampant, free flowing goal-scoring machine. We only averaged 1.9 goals per game in 10 years under Wenger. In fact those seasons when we scored a relative avalanche of goals, 85 in 02-03 and 87 in 04-05, we failed to win the title. What was distinctive at the old ground was the meanness of our defending; averaging a measly .87 goals per game in those halcyon years. The most impressive year was in 98-99 when we allowed in a mere 17 goals for the season vs a paltry 59 GF, coming 2nd. Boring old Arsenal, eh.

I am very struck by the fact that after conceding an economical 36 goals in 01-02, to win the title, Wenger and Dein latched unto Sol Campbell’s desire to free himself from the hell-hole at the Lane. The rest we all know is history. What is not as well-known is The Invincibles let in a measly 26 goals, an average of 0.68 per game. They only scored 73. Compare and contrast with the barren period that followed.

Emirate Years

Year Wins D L GF GA GD PTS POS
06-07 19 7 11 63 35 28 68 4
07-08 24 11 3 74 31 43 83 3
08-09 20 12 6 68 37 31 72 4
09-10 23 6 9 83 41 42 75 3
10-11 19 11 8 72 43 29 68 4
11-12 21 7 10 74 49 25 70 3
12-13 21 10 7 72 37 35 73 4
13-14 24 7 7 68 41 27 79 4
14-15 22 9 7 71 36 35 75 3
15-16 20 11 7 65 36 29 71 2
Mean Avg 21 9 8 71 39 32 73 3.4

Shock, shock, shock. The defending at Ashburton Grove is far from the high standards of Highbury, deteriorating by 18% between eras from an average 33 to 39 GA. Currently we are easily allowing in one goal per game compared to 0.87 at Highbury. In contrast goal scoring had a mere decline of 2.7% between eras. As a result average Goal Difference (GD) between eras fell from 38 to 32, a 15% deterioration.

After the club let in four goals at home vs Liverpool on the season-opener, is it any wonder Mustafi started vs Southhampton at the first opportunity. Now it makes sense Wenger decided that, despite a hefty £16 million investment in Callum Chambers, it was better to pack him off to Middleborough to complete his education. Obviously, like Sol Campbell, Mustafi is not only one for the future, he is for the present. In the words of Arsene:

“He is at the right age. He has good experience. He is a very focused player who can play with the ball as well. We have taken a great player but have prepared well for the future.”

Finally, let me remind you that in 07-08, when in my opinion we posed our last real challenge for the title, we let in a measly 31 goals for the season or 0.82 per game. So far after four games we are 6 GA or 1.5 per game. Clearly we have some ways off in getting anywhere close to 0.87 but it is still early days. But the data is compelling; lowering the GA is the key to why Mustafi could be our most important signing.