Yesterday on PA Shottagunner posted a great thought provoking piece looking at some of the numbers behind Arsenal’s current achievements and also the tepid, if not a little wayward, response by the media to it.

Although a tad ‘stat-lite’ compared to his recent other excellent pieces, upon reading it I felt 98.8% of readers would, like me, be giving it the mid-week nod of approval, even if not everyone has the time to comment, being a school day and all that.

It is a sound article which, when taken in context with the earlier Shotta contributions, can be seen to have been almost predictive in nature, but is in danger now of appearing to state the obvious, as his earlier predictions have lined themselves up with our current realities.

That’s the nature of great predictions!

Not to intentionally do down anything Shotta has been writing in recent weeks, I’m not personally a huge fan of stats.

Whilst Shotta’s enumerations are not in any way invalid I prefer to look in addition at actual changes rather than the statistical runs. Why? Well, a side can put in a great 10 game unbeaten run but if most of the sides played are sitting in the lower half of the league, the stats become skewed by the absence of results against the top half. By a similar token, a side can have 60% possession in a game and still lose. I’m not saying Shotta has done this, merely pointing out the need for an element of caution when perusing the numbers (a caution I’m sure Shotta would echo, in any case).

So what would I have us look at?

Well, for a start, we evidently ‘won’ the transfer window, much to the mortification of United, at least. We spent record sums on some, we spent tiny numbers on others and we went for players with mid-range price tags on their boots. Significantly, the impact of so many of our buys from the last 18 months who have hit the ground running is hard to exaggerate, but in particular the integration of Xhaka, Mustafi and Elneny alone are of huge significance in adding to the grit already provided by the likes of Kos, Coq and Giroud. Ordinarily, in the past, we’d be worried about Stoke at the weekend but I think they will be more worried about us, because of this. So that’s a break from the past.

Next up – November. It saw us play a range of football against varying levels of competitors but, aside from the League Cup, it saw us undefeated and, for me of greater significance, little was added to the injury stats. We are as well placed, fitness-wise (even with the loss of Santi and Welbeck) as any other early December of recent years, and considerably better than most. So we survived November.

Apart from sitting very pretty in second place in the Premiership, we also topped the group in the Champions League, something we’ve not done for a number of years and have done so in some style, with few trips or stumbles. Yes, it’s a statement of where we are but it’s a symptom also, of our confidence, our expectations and our belief. None of us are surprised we did it although it took PSG to throw away an undeserved statistical advantage to allow it. A favourable home draw awaits us in the new year. Nice.

There is additionally, the small matter of the outstanding form of stalwarts such as Sanchez and Ozil. But also the no-less important contributions of relative ‘bit-part’ players – Gibbs, Giroud, Holding, to mention just 3 – who, with others, have brought true meaning to the phrase ‘strength in depth’ when applied to our ‘exceptionally exceptional’ squad. The return of Bellerin, Welbeck and Santi in addition to our existing personnel suggests that we have less to fear from the Injury Gods going forward. So form AND fitness are in welcome alignment for once.

And that’s also something that’s not been the case in recent years.

I mention all of this to back up Shotta’s analysis; these are the facts that led to the stats that got us to here.

It’s true, we’ve won nothing yet but we are winning against (or at least are not being beaten by) what has been put in front of us so far. As the above hopefully makes clear – and Shotta’s stats confirm – nothing about where we are today is down to one ‘lucky’ factor. It’s not just about Alexis turning it on as a ‘one man team’. Or, as happened for Leicester last term, an abnormal run of penalties ‘won’ under dubious circumstances. [*coughsspudscoughcough* – ed]

Arsenal are evidently reaping the rewards of a perfect storm. A storm that is, for once, so far working all in our favour. And 9 out of 10 fans capable of independent thought would probably thank the Wenger for that.

Even if the media or the WOB really aren’t up for it, just yet.

Guete Morge Positives,

Yet another spectacular night from our lads with Basel swept aside within 16 minutes. It was obvious from the team selection and the energy that we immediately put into the opening few moments that this contest was no “dead rubber”. This was handbrake off from referee de Sousa’s first whistle*. Whatever happened in Paris, whether the 10% chance Arsene had referred to as our prospect of finish top of Group A was more than feint whimsy, we were going to take it.

I do not think our hosts were really expecting our vigorous approach. Why would they ? Basel are not a bad side. Against English sides they have a good record at their lively St Jakob home. They no doubt anticipated a difficult match for sure but one that, with patience, they could nick a goal and take their place in the Europa League that would have been expected when the group was drawn in August.

Within that 16 minutes however, as we all saw, the Swiss were on their back, torn apart by some exquisite passing and movement, pure Wengerball. I attach below the passing diagram for the second goal. 32 or 33 consecutive passes I am told. I don’t know about you but as I was watching that move after c. the 24^th or 25^th pass, with Basel’s head spinning, I thought something ‘sinister’ is about to happen. I think Ferguson described that sort of football as being on a “carousel”. And when the merry go-round stopped the ball was in the net. All that was needed to complete the drama was the music from Jaws;

I do not say for a moment that our football did not shine after that 16^th minute, and I could rhapsodize about Perez’s third, Sanchez’s free kick and twist of delicious fortune that allowed Iwobi’s goal scoring salvation for his OG at the Ems. It is just that after the 16^th minute the game, as a serious contest, was over and the Swiss were beaten.

As is usual for me on a night in which we dominate the opposition it is very difficult to pick out individual performances. I would fail in my duty however if I did not name Lucas Perez in the report. Three shots on target, three goals! I am sure it has been a fairly frustrating time for the Spaniard since September, but he has waited for his chance to play Champions League football and it is a night he will not forget in his career. In his honour therefore the headline photo. You have earned the accolade young man.

Having performed as well as we were able in Basel the evening took a more remarkable turn as the score filtered through from Parc de Princes. 0-1, 1-1, was more or less as expected but 1-2 in the 70^th minute was not. That “10% chance” to top the Group suddenly took on a much more substantial form. In fact, despite a late Parisian equalizer, the Bulgarians held on. Having watched the highlights The Bulgars earned a fully deserved point and it was not a game in which PSG dominated.

Thus the football gods smile upon us in Switzerland. May their good humour extend to Saturday and more meaty encounters to take place in North London.

Enjoy your Wednesday.

*I have no idea what happened to referee de Dousa by the way as I never heard or saw him for the remainder of the evening. I had to look up his name this morning. He clearly is a highly competent referee. Lee Mason please note.

早晨 (Jóusàhn) Positivistas,

A most pleasant trip to Stratford last night I am sure we can all agree. The hosts, as has happened so often in the past 20 years, putting on a display that made the journey entirely worthwhile. How they manage it season after season I shall never know. New restaurant, same menu. To be fair our lads, confronted with such abundant generosity, did themselves proud.

Of our display I was particularly impressed that they we took command of midfield within seconds of the kick off, and never gave it up for the following 95 minutes. Even before the words “we’re missing Santi” ( banned sobbing face, banned sobbing face) could be posted on Twitter Le Coq and Granit were into gear, capturing the ball , pushing it forward for Theo, Ox and Ozil to twist their way toward the ‘Ammers goal.

On the odd occasion the ‘Ammers managed to get hold of the ball a swarm of yellow shirts was onto them, denying them time to look up or pick a pass, flicking the ball away before sweeping back towards Randolph’s goal, poor soul.

And having grasped the initiative in that opening few minutes I do not think that we ever let it go at any time in the evening. Two players who stood out in the first half were Ox and Monreal, both of whom have had a lot of criticism in recent weeks. They worked together as well as any full back/winger combination I can remember when attacking. If they did have a West Ham player against them on the wing to defend against I have no idea who he was because he never made any impression with or without the football.

The opening goal was as simple as it was inevitable. Ironically it was a recklessly misplaced pass out of defence from West Ham that Le Coq cut out that finally sank them. That it took 24 minutes to finally arrive was the result of some desperate defending and a weakness on our part to translate overwhelming control in the final third to a killer pass or clear shot on goal.

I sensed, and I am sure you did, that having got the first goal that the metaphorical floodgates would open and we would rattle in a few more by half time. As is the way of football however we did not translate our domination into that important second goal.

Half time slowed us down and afterward we had an occasional attach by the Ammers to deal. At just 1-0 there was that uncomfortable feeling that a silly error, a Payet free kick or even Mr Pawson might even the score unless we moved the scoreboard on.

I need not have worried and the best player on the pitch, probably the best player in the Premier League this past month, struck decisively on 70 minutes. Despite his size Sanchez used his strength to break tackles and make space in the West Ham box before steering the ball past Randolph. He brushed off two WH defenders like dust. It was exactly the same type of strength that Costa had used at the Etihad earlier in the day. I look forward to him applying the same physical rigour to Ottamendi, Stones and Kolarov in three weeks time.

Having scored the second there then followed the next three, each a peach in its own way. For the Ox he badly needed a goal, even a really good shot on target, and the goal he managed was both and perfect. Alexis’ final solo effort, with THAT STEPOVER brought the curtain down on our biggest win against the Ammers away from home in my life time, and perhaps ever. By that stage the London Stadium was more than half empty, the home supporters unable to bear the crushing humiliation.

Normally I am able to single out opposition players for praise, generous opponent that I am. It is difficult this week. Other than Randolph, and the ever so lonely Fletcher, they were collectively and individually rubbish. Fucking amateurs. At least the ball boys had the right idea.

So onwards to Basel and I anticipate a second string squad. I also expect a win. It is on Tuesday so we shall know soon enough.

Enjoy your Sunday.

Good morning Positives.

The task I have this morning in front of me I have all but forgotten how to get to grips with. How to process a defeat? The requirement has been so rare in 2016 it took me a little while to get to grips with.

I look at why we lost, and as a foundation let me be clear that, on the night, the better team won. Anyone who believes otherwise I admire your one-eyed enthusiasm but there was no luck to the result, no dodgy incident that robbed us. Nor, over 90 minutes was it some sort of abominable display riddled with Arsenal errors or individual player’s incompetence. We were well beaten. Good luck to the Saints, plucky little devils, in their next step on the Wembley road against Klopp. I see this morning the media are wetting themselves over a Manyoo v Liverpool League Cup final – fingers crossed they will be disappointed.

The technical conversation concerning the defeat last night I would refer any reader to the manager and his various post match comments: “lack of urgency….”, “disappointing start”, (Saints) sharper and fitter” “cheap goals”, “mountain to climb”, “could play two hours without scoring a goal.”

Arsene did not feel the players chosen were insufficiently experienced to take on Southampton, who themselves had a few fringe players in the starting line up, at home. He acknowledged that we were better in the second half. Would eight or nine changes to the starting line up have made a difference rather then the full 10? I doubt it. I  cannot add much to the manager’s succinct commentary. Disappointment is mutual.

Perhaps I would disagree on the “cheap goals” jibe as the visitors had two chances in the first half, both shots, and scored twice. That suggests a bit more quality than “cheap goals”. Cheap goals, or wonderfully crafted Wengerball gems, you have to hit the target. The contrast between Southampton’s conversion of those two first half chances, and our own profligate waste of the few chances we did manage to carve out in the second half was what killed us

With regard to individual performances I thought Alex Iwobi had a good night. He was the one genuinely creative player in our midfield and he battled away to try and spring the Saints defensive lock. With no Ozil, Sanchez or Santi to work with, what the young Nigerian did achieve was creditable. Fatigue and injury left us with Perez, a central striker back after five weeks injured and with barely any game time all season. He performed as one might expect and brushed away some of the rust that must have built up. I thought Kieran Gibbs, Emi Martinez, Rob Holding and Granit all did well. I attach no criticism to Le Coq. As Elneny was “sick”, and lasted only 10 minutes, that he began the game was obviously an error on someone’s part. Presumably it is difficult to know how you will feel on the pitch unless you try.

Of the other players the more experienced will be disappointed not to have contributed more, the youngsters that they did not show their best on what, for some, may be the last time they will play at the Ems. With loan deals beckoning in January, from which some may never return, it will have been a poignant night

So onward to the “London Stadium” on Saturday early evening. A new venue, and the next page in our season. We shall see if the midweek break has been genuinely beneficial for Ozil and Sanchez. The ‘Appy ‘Ammers had their own night of grief last night. We can step forward smartly, and together.

Enjoy your Thursday.

Bwayne Errz Dee Arse Positivistas*,

A fine morning up in Norfolk to start the week as we move into the final days of November. Not such a bad few weeks was it? Not all we wanted so far as points or performances go, and a couple of injuries that cast a bit of a pall, but an unbeaten month (so far), two wins and three draws, easily into the CL R16, three points off the top of the PL with two of the teams ahead due to clash on Saturday – not so dreadful is it?

Yesterday was a good game I thought. We started, and persisted for about 20 minutes, in a style that suggested we were going to slaughter the visitors. The early goal, pressure aplenty, the yellows for two Bournemouth bemused defenders, a large score and extremely comfortable kind of early afternoon beckoned.

And then ……….! Something, somewhere shifted, the metaphorical butterfly effect. Debuchy went off on 16 minutes – poor sod – but I don’t really know what “happened”. Suddenly the command we had of the contest slipped away, Bournemouth took possession of the ball and pinned us back, referee Jones obliged with a dubious decision to even the scores, tackles flew in hard, and from an easy afternoon suddenly we were locked in battle with a determined opponent and one that, for most of the remainder of the first half, looked more likely to score again than we did.

Whether Debuchy’s departure upset the back line is no doubt a point that AW is pondering this morning. Mathieu is hardly a regular so that his 15 minute cameo as the source of a nervous breakdown amongst his defensive colleagues seems implausible. Gabriel came on and immediately fitted in, not a natural right back but he has played there before. Most odd. It would be churlish however to not give the Cherries due praise for taking the initiative as it fell open. I have no idea what the simmering row is/was with Arter. He was the target of a couple of serious assaults and the perpetrator of a potential leg breaker on Monreal. I remember Arter and Le Coq squaring up last season so it may be a hangover from that. The boy needs to sort his head out.

Thank Gawd after half time Arsenal switched back on and put together as good as half as football as we have over the past month. Alexis was imperious all afternoon, not just the goals but his passing was really, really good. Granit and Mo, after a first half wobble, got on top of the Bournemouth midfield. Mo’s energy was exceptional, and Granit I see put in eight tackles. That is le Coq output from the Swiss. Good lad. Theo was not particularly sharp yesterday compared to earlier in the season but his goal scoring header was top quality. No complaints about Gabriel, he played well. And the one moment in the game we needed him our Cech made a decisive, almost point blank, save from Afobe. On such small moments are titles won, and/or lost. And finally, to relieve the pressure the third goal, a sweeping, fast passing goal, the visitors flattened and their defence opened up. Sanchez’s second tap-in of the afternoon, another late, late goal,  a sweet finish.

For the visitors I was impressed with Nathan Ake – playing centre back but a good footballer – no doubt he will be cast off by Chelsea as superfluous to requirements. I shall keep an eye on the young Dutchman.

So that is about it today, just a short break before the next contest against the Saints who looked very useful against Everton yesterday in the late game. I fancy another exciting game on Wednesday night. And finally, for those who enjoy vigorous debate on football matters this caught my eye  from this week’s Private Eye;

*I thought as our Chilean tiger has been making an effort to master the lingo we could join in. Next week we shall learn “Qué piensas de ……..” (trans. ‘What do you think of …..’)