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Arsenal: The Green Shoots of April

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Good Morning Positivistas,

What a gorgeous Spring morning. Little lambs gambolling happily and noisily in the field, scurrying packs of ducklings on the river bank. Hullo clouds, Hullo sky.

As you can probably tell it is my last day before the annual retreat to the Hebrides – and my mood is rather good.

And to send me northward we were treated to a sumptuous footballing display last night against the ‘Ammers. 3-0 may have been the official score but if it had been 5-6-7-0 then the visitors could have had no serious complaint. As Shankly quipped “they were lucky to get nil”. The unusual thing about our three goals was they all went in the same spot, low to Randolph’s right.

We saw on Sunday confidence seeping back into our players against Citeh. No sudden upswing, just a little more assured, less hesitant. The recent domestic and European misfortunes had clearly dented their belief in themselves. Last night that improvement moved on a further pace. Ozil had his best game, in terms of influence and involvement for three months. It was Mesut’s snap shot that undid what had been, up to then a good night for Randolph.

The recent boo boys target Sanchez had a very good evening, working like clockwork with the German maestro and chipping in two of the sweetest balls to Danny and Hector that I have seen this season. We saw Granit last night also hitting some sweet passes, again the Swiss played (to my eye) like man with a weight lifted from his shoulders. Much praise has been aimed at the Elneny and Xhaka combination last night. A little early to say yet but two tall, long legged central midfield players ( neither of whom is the new Vieira), both comfortable on the ball, certainly did for the ‘Ammers.

Going forward therefore we were totally dominant then but spare a thought for the lads at the back. Andy Carroll has a reputation for success against Arsenal, with his biff-bash-bang style unsettling even the smooth Koscielny in seasons gone past. With Kosc out and our third string keeper in last night Oor Andy must have fancied his chances. But no – not at all. Last night the pony tailed one received just as much stick as he handed out, courtesy of Gabriel. It seemed to me every time Carroll was in the air or challenging for the ball that Gabriel was all over him. At one point in fact he was through the back of him. It is good to know that an opposition striker went home with a few bruises for once. Martinez had one serious save to make all night. Says it all.

For the team from the London Stadium, soon to be the Vodafone Stadium apparently, a fifth defeat on the trot. Bilic tight lipped, relegation looms. What a shambles that enterprise is turning into.

Poor night for Martin Atkinson. Evidently he had set out not to award a penalty no matter what and resolutely stuck to his guns. Let the cameras roll.

For those of you who cannot stomach the MSM I can save you the bother and we are now “officially” back in the hunt for a Champions League place, as though we were ever out of it ? Liverpool and Citeh obliged us last night. With games in hand and the confidence flowing I rather fancy the game at Selhurst Park to be a opportunity for reeling them in some more rather than an obstacle.

Enjoy your Thursday.

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Arsenal Versus West Ham: The Best Of Times, The Worst Of Times

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Honestly, you wait weeks for a football match and then two show up at once. We’ve barely finished digesting Adrian Clarke’s Breakdown of the draw with Man City and already we need to contemplate the visit of West Ham.

A London derby, but perhaps not the most spicy of them, West Ham has nonetheless provided us with many an entertaining ninety minutes. None of us will want to reminisce for long upon last season’s Emirates encounter, and those of us who have reached a bumbling maturity may struggle to go back that far in any case. Thanks to the vagaries of the fixture list it’s been nearly two years since West Ham came to see us in the Premier League, came and behaved in a thoroughly disagreeable fashion I might add.

As Andy hinted in his most recent match review, much has changed since then. Our line up featured Debuchy, Mertesacker and Cazorla and we had no reason to suppose those three might not still be first choices come this season. It is, however, the visitors whose fortunes have been most altered since their unlikely opening day heroics.

Slaven Bilić had just replaced Fat Sam Allardyce the soon to be disgraced England football manager and it was their last season at the Boleyn Ground.They achieved their highest top flight points total, made the sixth round of the FA Cup, and even had a little dalliance with the Europa League. Their time there lasted until the Third Qualifying Round which might be a major achievement and it might not – this is after all not a competition we Arsenal fans know anything much about. Although it might be time to start brushing up on it if we fail to beat the Hammers this evening.

Well, suffice it to say the fairy tale did not last for Slaven and his boys. In common with many sides the move to a new stadium proved a dislocation, an unsettling settling in period for both players and fans alike. It’s something for which Arsène Wenger is seldom given sufficient credit. The move from Highbury, regardless of all the financial constraints it imposed, ought to have seen the side struggle, at least in the first season, as team and supporters felt themselves adrift in their new and still alien ‘home’. That Arsenal maintained their top four finish – the Mecca of all Premier League teams whatever the ‘fourth is not a trophy’ brigade tell you – speaks volumes for the man at the helm.

This season West Ham continued their brave tradition of reaching some obscurely named round of the Europa League before succumbing to the mighty Astra Giurgiu. They also pulled off memorable victories against Accrington Stanley and Chelsea reserves in the League Cup but otherwise it’s been a season to forget.

We, you may recall, put five past them back in the heady optimistic days of December and they have gone on to ship a total of fifty four goals since the season started. A sorry state of affairs which sees them sitting in the relegation zone and desperate for any succour they can get.

I am always wary of matches at the fag end of the season. The league and form tables can be easily confounded as sides in dire trouble with the trapdoor trembling beneath them can fight with a furious abandon born of reckless necessity. However, with no wins in their last six you have to think West Ham are leaving it mighty late in the day to begin the old backs to the wall routine.

We steadied our ship on Sunday, at last getting reward for a dogged never say die attitude which I believe the players have often showed this season. Hopefully the draw and manner in which it was achieved will get their heads in the right place for the battles to come, a resounding victory tonight would go a long way too.

So an intriguing prospect tonight. One side with a faint possibility of a top four finish, the other with a looming probability of one in the bottom three. Which incentive will be the greatest? It ought to come down to a comparative measurement of the side’s relative strengths but I don’t believe you can slide a rule over team sports with any degree of accuracy. Too much human frailty involved, too much at stake.

As far as the teams go it would be harsh indeed to bench Gabriel after a very creditable second half against City but I am intrigued at the thought that Per might provide the perfect foil for Andy Carroll’s long legs. However, I don’t indulge in meaningless speculation and am content to let those who know most about the players take such  decisions.

Right that’s it, the sun is shining, my hash browns are nearly done and I have better things to do than sit here thinking about Arsenal. Come seven forty five this evening I promise to give the club my fullest attention, until then I’m off out on my bike and then working in the garden. Don’t you just love this time of year?

 

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Arsenal: Fight not Flight

 

C8byb0uXoAMB2PG 2.jpgGood morning to All Positive Arsenal fans,

This Monday normal service has been resumed.

After a few disappointments in our recent PL form we faced an important test yesterday. By ‘we’ I mean the club, the players, fans, and our manager. I’d say we came through that test well. Admittedly not with the three points we all wanted and that would have put us above the perpetually whining Portuguese but a solid point earned. To have endured a further defeat yesterday would have been destructive to morale, terminal even.

The football played by both side yesterday was not particularly flowing or of the best quality. In the first half neither side rarely managed to string three passes together. Movement into space was hesitant. Short passes were intercepted, long balls skipped out of play, tackles flew in across midfield and cards were brandished. Even Theo joined in the violence, bizarrely waved on by Andre Marriner. Playing Navas as wing back/right back was a Pep wild card that could have had fatal consequences as he launched into Nacho. Dreadful challenge. Clearly we were not the only team having an edgy afternoon.

By the second half both sides had calmed down and the football began to flow a little more smoothly. The departure of Kosc was unwelcome but Gabriel fitted in well. Gabriel is the sort of defender who would trample over his Grandma to clear a ball. The Brazilian’s more ‘direct’ style of defending may have been the better choice on the day than Kosc who did not look comfortable during the opening 45.  I suspect we may be without the Frenchman for a month or so until his Achilles problem is solved. Our defensive shape is a work still in progress, as Sane and then Aguero’s goals yesterday showed so it may do no harm for Gabriel to start and have his place assured for the next few games. Despite their early bookings Xhaka and Le Coq stuck to their defensive tasks and were strong without being reckless. The man who was out best performer yesterday scored the second equalizer and the point was won. A decent 15 minutes from Alex Iwobi again yesterday. The youngster added a bit of late but welcome craft in the visitors’ half.

From 85 minutes onward I was pacing, I admit it. I welcomed the final whistle.

Reflecting on the game this Monday morning what pleased me most yesterday was that our players showed they have it in them to recover from a setback, or two setbacks to be more accurate, and to get back into a game. In recent games when an opponent has scored it seemed to me their reaction betrayed a lack of confidence and a resignation, and that response is really is not good enough. In contrast yesterday no heads appeared to go down. There was no arm waving or finger pointing histrionics from anyone. Every man took responsibility, worked hard to get back into the game and broke through the Citeh shield twice. We played as a team, and that is a step forward. And the fans in the stadium ? From what I heard on the TV plenty of noise, plenty of good encouragement. Much appreciated.

A short break now and West Ham on Wednesday. We go into the game a little more confident and facing an opponent whose poor form is dragging them inexorably towards the relegation zone. 12 months ago Slaven Bilic was a man whose reputation very much on the up. Well he is not blowing any bubbles now.

Enjoy Monday.

84 Comments

Arsenal Versus City: The Needle And The Damage Done

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Feel like a bear this morning. Like a big fat hairy bear waking up from a pleasant, dreamless few months at the back of a cosy cave. Hope your break from all things football was equally refreshing and that you found plenty of diverting, and above all interesting ways to spend the languid, lazy, stress free days.

Well you can forget all that because it’s time to take the belt into your teeth, tighten it around your arm and push the needle in. Yep, we’re back on the smack as of four pm this afternoon. Pretending it makes us happy while we sink ever further into the misery of addiction, delusion, repetition and despair.

Of course we experience the occasional high, all junkies do, it keeps us coming back for more. The underlying hope is to rediscover the joy we experienced when we did it for the first time. Today might well be one of those days. Might not be but it won’t make any difference to you and I because we’re pathetically addicted to keep coming back for more regardless of the result, performance or fall out.

Neither of today’s teams has enjoyed a particularly consistent season, both will be hoping a convincing win over a rival will divert the criticism for a week. Who is in the better form? I suppose it’s City based on results and anything but the most partisan view of our recent performances. Taken over the last ten matches there is, in fact, barely anything between the two sides, a mere two points in fact. However when we look at the Premier League form table over the most recent six matches the picture is horribly different.

Spurs are at the top with City second and Arsenal so far down I got a crick in my neck looking for us. So if current form is a guide we will probably lose today. Of course football is a game of numbers but they are only relevant after the event. The stats can’t be used to predict anything because there are way too many variables in a game with twenty two fallible human beings and three officials any one of whom can influence the result with a moment of madness or a flash of brilliance.

Those of you in your first ever season watching the game and supporting Arsenal may find the team’s current plight too much to bear. The rest of us, having been around the block a few times, have seen more ups and downs than a bi-polar lift attendant and can breezily take a few defeats in our stride. We know that a seemingly devastated side, shorn of confidence and steering wildly towards a rocky shore, can suddenly right itself and win in a most unexpectedly comfortable fashion.

Look at Liverpool. In January they couldn’t win a game and everyone was making jokes at Herr Klopp’s expense. Now, a few weeks later, they are world beaters, set to cement their top four place and take Europe by storm next season. It’s this fickle, feckless fly by night attitude, so prevalent among football fans, which puts me off the whole thing.

The sport can be a complex blend of tactics, egos, form and confidence. It can bewilder and confuse, thrill and frustrate in equal or unequal measures. However this is only for the manager and players. When, like us, all you have to do is watch the game, it is actually very simple.

You only really have two things to do – celebrate if your team wins, get over it if they lose. Oh, and you could try to enjoy as much of the stuff that takes place on the pitch before either result comes about. Everything else, the arguments, the opinions, the discussions, is just froth. Ephemeral, chimerical codswallop which, if you let it, will strangle any joy you might once have taken from watching a match.

Before you point it out to me, can I say I do get the irony of using the platform of a football blog to rail against the peripheral flim-flam gushing from opinionated amateur windbags like me. I get it and I still do it. Like I said, tighten the belt until the vein bulges and sink the needle in. I don’t have a problem. Honest. I can quit football any time I like.

76 Comments

Arsenal Will Revert To The Mean

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Over a week has passed since the West Brom defeat and the lamestream media cannot conceal their continued delight. After 12 years of lurid predictions of Arsenal’s demise, knowing full well the impact of paying for a new stadium, they are going ape-shit on the probability Arsenal may miss out on a Champion’s League place.

This week Graeme Souness was given top billing in almost all the English rags.

“Arsenal usually falter in February or March, then reach the top four with a late run in April and May, but I don’t see it happening,”

The Daily Mail on March 21st predicted Arsenal will finish 5th behind Chelsea, City, Tottenham and Liverpool (in that order).

ESPN has been in full click-bait mode since the loss to Bayern Munich as exemplified by a recent headline:

“Nightmare for Arsenal as Tottenham could cancel St. Totteringham’s Day”

Since West Brom the corporate media has done very little by way of serious analysis to verify Wengers’s post match observations:

“We didn’t create enough. We lost Sanchez in the second half, he was very dangerous in the first. He came out in the second half and he couldn’t move any more. In the first half he was a guy who created a lot.

“It leaves us in a unique situation that we’ve never had before. We face big problems to regroup and find resources to sort out the problem. We need some togetherness. We face some serious challenges. The City game at home is a big game for us.”

Instead we are treated to the sorry spectacle of failed ex-mangers and mentally challenged pundits advising the club to terminate the services of, by far, its most successful ever gaffer. Among them is Chris Sutton whom the BBC gave a podium to spout:

“He’s been selfish. I’m surprised Steve Bould doesn’t get hold of him and say this is the reality.

“He’s taking the club backwards. They have just accepted mediocrity.”

Positively Arsenal’s @BlackburnGeorge gave a fitting rebuttal to both Sutton and the BBC in his recent blog telling them to “Get in the bin!”

So is Wenger correct that we are in a unique position? All but the mindless pundits have to admit he has a point. Souness himself acknowledged that traditionally Arsenal has a bad run in February or March, which, by the way, usually coincides with trying to compete on three fronts (PL, ECL and FA cup) while having key players out due to injury. As usual don’t expect any acknowledgement of either fact by the corporate media. It would mean giving credit to a manager who has repeatedly proven success comes primarily from teaching players to play intelligent, progressive football, not by overspending and corrupting the Premier League via foreign oligarchs and Arab sheiks as well the clique of special agents who launder the cash.

For the benefit of PA readers, I have researched the data to identify any unique characteristics about this year’s team. To assist I relied on whoscored.com. They in recent years have provided detailed team statistics using both the offensive and defensive data to arrive at an overall rating for each PL club.  For the second time in 8 years, Arsenal this season-to-date has a sub-7 rating, exactly 6.98. In comparison the seven-year mean and median is 7.06 and 7.04 respectively.  The difference may seem insignificant but, over the past eight years, teams with a sub-seven rating are grimly fighting for 4th place in the premier league. Not to be overly pessimistic, Arsenal ended with a 6.94 rating in 2011/12 and finished 3rd in the PL. But that was an outlier.

Drilling down in the data, the club this year is generally below the seven-year mean in some key defensive and offensive stats.

Defensive

Shots pg Tackles pg Interceptions pg Fouls pg Offsides pg
16/17 10.8 18 15.7 10.3 2.5
Mean 10.7 19.9 17.98 10.7 2.1
Median 10.6 19.7 17.70 10.4 2.2

Defensively AFC is making nearly two (2) less Tackles per game and similar drop in the number of Interceptions. Quite frankly that data surprised me. So there is something to the frequently made observation that Coquelin, in particular, is making less tackles and interceptions this season compared to last. Furthermore this deficit has not been covered by the other central midfielders.  Obviously less tackles and interceptions provide more attacking opportunities for the opposition. No wonder, of all the top-6 teams, so far this season Arsenal has the second highest number of goals against (34), second only to Liverpool (36).

Offensive

Shots pg Shots OT pg Dribbles pg Fouled pg
16/17 15.1 5.1 12.3 10.1
Mean 16.2 5.9 11.3 11.4
Median 16.5 6.1 10.6 10.9

Offensively AFC is below its seven-year average in two of four categories. Shots per game is down by one. This, by the way, is part of a general trend as in 2009/10 AFC was firing 17.4 shots per game, the apogee. Most importantly, the Shots On target per game is down by 14% from the mean of 5.8 to 5.1 this season. This has not had a disparate impact as the Gunners remain the third highest goal scorers in the league behind Chelsea and Liverpool, but only just.

Months ago I did a blog using the unbiased data to show that under Wenger, both at Highbury and the Emirates, Arsenal has been the most consistent club in the league. The club’s average position over the past 20 years has been 3rd with an standard deviation of one (1).  It is highly unusual for Arsenal to swing 4 places in league ranking, i.e. from 2nd to 6th. Based on the time-tested statistical laws, such diversions from the mean are temporary and short-lived. Unlike the lamestream media who have a political interest in casting Wenger’s prudence in a bad light and to prey on the emotions of fearful Arsenal fans, those of us with some grasp on reality have no doubt Arsenal’s league position will revert to the mean. While one cannot guarantee how soon this reversion will take place it is a 95% probability. In the mean time my advice is don’t put any money on 5th.

 

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“Arsenal Have No Ambition” Really? Get in the bin !

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What is ambition?

Aspiration, intention, goal, aim, objective, purpose, intent, plan, scheme, mission, calling, vocation, desire, target, end dream, or hope?

No matter where I look I cannot find a definition that claims its spending money, or more to the point, spending someone else’s money.

Arsenal have been the most ambitious club in the modern game. When they were enjoying unprecedented success at Highbury, they planned and executed the most ambitious move in football history. The club sacrificed years of possible short term success for a future as much bigger and more competitive club.

The fact that circumstances changed does not detract from the ambition shown. The arrival of multi-billionaires that were going to fund their toys to the extent never even dreamt of previously in English football and TV money reducing the advantage Arsenal had expected from the improved gate receipts does not mean that the ambition shown by the club was  not staggering. That FFP failed and the authorities were unable to resist the influx of cash to the game was not the fault of Arsenal and again, takes nothing away from the bravery and ambition the club showed.

The team, under Arsene Wenger always shows ambition. Even when forced to buy those the critics claim are 3rd rate players and journeymen, they had the ambition to play an open and expansive entertaining brand of football. If anything Arsene is guilty of being overambitious. I feel he asks players to play in a way that only the very best players can consistently achieve. Lack of ambition would be 5 at the back , 2 defensive midfielders and hoping that a player will do something special to score . Of course every defeat brings out the experts with their “painting by numbers” ideas on tactics and formations. But is that AMBITION? Is it bollocks.

So if people think we could have spent more, bought ‘better’, more expensive players,  played the game in a different way, and/or changed managers half a dozen times like “ambitious”clubs do, fine. Think what you like. But don’t be calling it ambition. I’m not having that. It is bullshit.

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Arsene Wenger Should Go, And Go Now.

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Before I go into my thinking let me make state my opinions:

  1. Arsene Wenger is the club’s greatest ever manager
  2. Arsene Wenger remains one of the world’s best managers
  3. Arsene Wenger can achieve as much success as any possible replacement
  4. Arsene Wenger should leave at the end of this season

So how can I say 4 after the previous 3?  Let me try to explain.

Arsenal are not a poor club; compared to the vast majority of clubs we are rich. However, compared to 3 other English clubs we are very much the poor relation. The problem is a huge swathe of our fan-base flatly refuse to accept this reality.  So let’s look at the reasons why so many think we should be able to compete with these clubs and why their thinking is wrong.

We are the 5th most valuable football club in the world and worth more than City and Chelsea.

Yes we are, but you can’t spend your share value.  An owner could of course borrow against it and fund the club that way, as Manchester United basically do, but our owner chooses not to. So just like the value of your house does not mean you can buy a new Ferrari, the value of the club does not buy players.

We have the largest cash reserves in football.

Yes, we do, but all of our cash reserves are shown in our accounts.  City and Chelsea’s cash reserves are in the bank accounts of their owners and don’t show in their accounts. And importantly, their owners are prepared and willing to spend their own money to subsidise the clubs. Ours has no such willingness. It  doesn’t matter how rich your Dad is, if he won’t fund your lifestyle, you are on your own. The fact that Stan is fabulously wealthy does not help a jot if he insists on the club paying its own way.  And he does.

There is a proven 85% correlation across all leagues of money spent (on fees and wages) to success.

Did LCFC club outspend the rest?

No they didn’t. They were a once in a lifetime exception, and people should understand that for every 5000 to 1 winner, there are 5000+ losers. Using this freak result as an argument against years of proven data takes an incredible amount of stupidity, but that doesn’t seem to put people off.

Until fans accept that there are 3 teams much more likely to win the league at the start of every season there will always be rebellion. I don’t care who the manager is, each and every year there are 3 teams that will have vastly more expensive squads and who will most likely have out-spent us on transfers in the previous window.  Some fans will ignore the financial gulf and demand we “compete” with the super spending clubs. But why?

Well, Arsene Wenger for a start.  His massive early success set the bar, and the change that has happened in the game since is ignored. We want doubles and unbeaten seasons, no sausages for us, oh no-sir. We deserve better.  We have tasted it, many are fans because of it and we demand it again.  And again.

But we just want to compete I hear you say?

But that is bollocks, because if we did compete, the same fans would be accusing the team, manager and club of “bottling” it if we didn’t go on to win.

The connection between the fan-base and the team is broken.  A huge portion of fans blame Arsene.  If he achieves the finish we should be achieving – 4th- this will be hailed a failure.

But here is the thing. Any future manager getting 4th or better will have succeeded.  Only Arsene can both achieve and fail at the same time.  He needs to massively over-achieve for it to be seen as acceptable.  If we finish outside the top 4 this year, it will be his first failure in real terms. But it is accepted thinking that he has failed for 13 years.  And this thinking will remain as long as he is manager.

He has to leave before fans will see and accept that he is not the problem, and never has been.

The players appear to back him almost to a man. But until he leaves they will hide behind him and he will let them. He will take the flak for the players and the board until he leaves.  I doubt a new manager will be as selfless.

Also the players could be carrying his burden onto the field.  The pressure applied by fans and the media will not be released while Arsene is in the driving seat.  They are sure he is the problem and will not consider an alternative view.

All this does not justify our current form which, by the way, is unprecedented in 21 years, but it might go some way to explaining it if people would be prepared to be a little open- minded.  The problem is they are not. They are convinced.  And only Arsene leaving will satisfy their lust for blood.

Arsene simply cannot win. He should leave, even if the club will actually be worse for it.

That said, if he stays, he will get my 100% support.

Because, well you know?

He’s Arsene Wenger.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

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The Attempted Lynching of Arsene Wenger By The Lamestream Media

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After years of consistently failing to gain any traction with their lies that Arsene Wenger is under-achieving, the mainstream media is now giddy with delight. For the first time in 12 years Arsenal is seriously struggling.

All the enemies of the Arsenal-way and their fellow travelers are now “jizzing” with delight, practically drooling in their underpants. Now is a real chance to sow fear and doom, to split the fanbase and  to put pressure on the Board to fire the manager who has not only been its most successful but, only last year, guided the club to second place in the Premier League and one year earlier completed back-to-back FA cup victories.

But then again, most sensible Arsenal supporters with two functioning brain cells and a working synapse are aware, long before the current political uproar concerning “fake” news, that Arsene and AFC have been victims of bias and slanted journalism for years. None of the following headlines come as any surprise.

The Sun:

 “Arsene Wenger is taking the p*** out of Arsenal fans by continuing his selfish soap opera”

ESPN:

“Arsenal top-four failure would be a disastrous end to Arsene Wenger era”

It is entirely predictable that the mainstream media’s will use a poor run of form to convince the fickle public that this is sufficient reason to condemn a manager who has been the most consistent in the Premier League over the past 20 years not to mention being the most successful in the history of Arsenal Football Club. Is there a better example of George Orwell’s double-think. For those who celebrate Orwell but conveniently forget his writings, let me remind you of his definition of double think:

“To know and not to know, to be conscious of complete truthfulness while telling carefully constructed lies, to hold simultaneously two opinions which cancelled out, knowing them to be contradictory and believing in both of them, to use logic against logic… “

A perfect example was Jim Beglin, who was Jon Champion’s sideman in their commentary of Arsenal’s match versus West Brom as broadcast by NBC here in the US. He, at around the 2 minute mark,  could without contradiction, make the following comment with respect to Arsene:

“He doesn’t deserve the criticism cause he has been an Arsenal great….The problem with Arsenal fans is they feel they need to voice their frustration (be)cause he is no longer an Arsenal great.”

Isn’t that a precise example of double think?

Neither Beglin or Champion, like the rest of the other sock-puppets in the mainstream media, have the “cojones” or the integrity to admit that Arsenal’s bad spell has nothing to do with Arsene’s ability to coach or to manage a team. Even Wenger’s most fervent defenders are the first to admit the team messed up on defending two corners but a fair minded observer would disclose that West Brom is very, very good at corners having scored 12 prior to the Arsenal match. Why should it take Wenger to point out that so far this season the team has been quite good at set pieces and corners?

What is even more abject is the refusal of almost all the pundits and experts to acknowledge that Arsenal was greatly weakened by the absence of its two most highly accomplished midfield technicians, Mesut Ozil and Santi Cazorla.  As I have repeatedly emphasized the data shows the team relies on the creativity of both players to offensively dominate the opposition by creating chances and scoring goals.

Surely it is clear to even the least perceptive of the mainstream media that Ozil is very important to Arsenal. It was only one week earlier, in the FA cup game versus Lincoln City, that in the first 20 minutes Arsenal huffed and puffed without creating chances until Ozil joined the proceedings.  The visitors were eventually spanked 5-0 as the German orchestrated the offence. Surely the mainstream media has access to even better sources of data than this lowly blogger which demonstrate that in the absence of Carzola, Ozil is more vital than ever to Arsenal.

2016/17 Win Draw Loss
With Ozil 67% 14% 19%
Overall 55% 19% 26%
Difference -12% 5% 7%

Without Ozil, there is a 12% decline in the number of PL games won and a concurrent 7% increase in games loss compared to overall team performance

This has been the general trend ever since Ozil joined the club in 203 but is even more pronounced this year. The table below illustrates.

2013 to date Win Draw Loss
With Ozil 60% 23% 17%
Overall 57% 23% 20%
Difference -3% 0% 3%

To back up my findings, I did some further analysis of the Squawka data I published early March and the offensive disparity between Carz-Ozil and The Rest of midfielders quite alarming. By the way: this is not to put down any of the The Rest but there is a reason why Carzola and Ozil are winners of World Cup and European Championship medals versus none for their midfield colleagues.

Carz-Ozil The Rest
Avg Performance Score 26 17
Avg Appearances 15 18
Shot Accuracy 59% 26%
Avg. Pass Accuracy 89% 88%
Avg. Pass Length (m) 16 16
Avg. Chances Created 1.97 0.80
Avg. Goals Scored 0.24 0.05
Avg. Defensive Actions 1.5 1.83
Avg. Duels Won 41% 49%

The midfielders available to Arsene on Saturday are collectively inferior in quality to Carzola and Ozil.

·       34% disparity in Avg Performance Score,

·       Shot Accuracy is 33 percentage points inferior

·       Avg Chances Created is 59% worse

·       Avg Goals Scored is 79% less

On the defensive side, The Rest has much better statistics in terms of Avg Defensive Actions and Avg Duels Won. But at the end of the day football games are won by having the ability to score more goals than the other team.

It was therefore no surprise that despite being nice and tidy and mustering over 77% possession Arsenal was unable to create sufficient Chances and Shots on Target to keep West Brom at bay as evident by the the following statistics from whoscored.com

West Brom KEY STAT Arsenal
12 Shots 11
8 Shots on target 2
58% Pass Success 88%
41% Aerial Duel Success 59%
10 Dribbles won 10
14 Tackles 10
23% Possession 77%

In fact, once Pulis and his players recognized that Alexis was the main offensive threat, they set about fouling him rotationally with referee Swarbick, like most English referees, unwilling to protect the most skillful player on the field. He was fouled four times before a call was first made. The sixth foul by Rondon was a cynical clatter to prevent a breakaway, no yellow card.  The seventh and most severe by Mclean was a full bloodied studs raised challenge from the side, infinitely more forceful than those which earned Xhaka his two red cards; yellow card only. Job done, however.  Alexis’ ankle had been smashed and he was never the same after.

Meanwhile the representatives of the mainstream media, Beglin and Champion, treated it as one big joke:

Beglin: “McLean tackles like a fullback not a winger.”

Champion: “Tackles like a lumberjack”

The clear assault on Alexis Sanchez did not earn West Brom, its manager or players any reproach, any sanction from the combined wisdom of Robbie Earle or Kyle Martino who did  the half-time analysis for NBC’s PL broadcast aimed at us rubes in North America. Nothing happened. Nothing to see here.

By the end of the game however the sock-puppet media lost no time in declaring Arsene was solely responsible for Arsenal’s loss, was somehow out of touch and should be hounded out of the club. Like any lynch mob, the mainstream media and the mindless screeching WOBs, Scarfists and assorted malcontents have no intention of letting the facts come to the fore, they hope mob rule will prevail.

Last week Sir Chips told them to eff-off. Isn’t time for more good people to step up and put the lamestream media in their place.

61 Comments

Arsenal: Provoked with Impunity

IMG_2651.JPGGood morning Positive Arsenal fans,

Another savage setback in Sandwell yesterday. 2017 has turned into a bit of a monster hasn’t it ? In 29th January, having seen our second string thrash Saints in the Cup and with a safe three points against Watford scheduled, before our trip to take on Chelsea the season’s future looked rather different. Only seven weeks ago ….? Just 11 games – Seems a bloody age !

Of yesterday’s lunchtime match until James McLean crunched into Alexis’ ankle we were comfortably in the game. We were not fluent going forward but doing enough to score again and, in due course, probably could/would/should have collected the points. The Chilean had looked sparky, had scored and was leading the Baggies a merry dance. With our balloon popped, or apparently Sanchez’s ankle ligaments crocked to be more accurate, we seemed to retreat into a protective ball, a little shocked, a little hurt.

And after that we lost the game. West Brom are not a bad side, a team built by Pulis in his functional “no-nonsense” image. Like Watford, like Everton, however they are a team of footballers who individually do not have the quality of our players, do not have the wide experience of domestic club, European and international football, do not have the technique in passing and control, are in most cases slower. These are the artisans of the football world. But yet again they put together what talent and energy they had and earned their points. They defended with grim determination and their concentration did not waver. When three chances to score came their way they took them. Two well taken corners, BANG BANG. One scruffy half shank of a scramble on the penalty spot from Robson-Kanu.

For our side we have a hell of a lot of passes and 77% possession. Once we had slipped behind to the second goal we really did not look like we were likely to recover. The eyes glazed, the shoulders slumped. What was slightly disappointing is no one kicked McLean (or stamp on his head as is the current fashion) after what was a vicious tackle on Sanchez. Why are we soooooo “nice” ? We have very good players. And those same players until the end of January had it in them, and managed week after week, to win games in the final few minutes, and to take back the initiative in contests. For the past seven weeks that talent has deserted them.

On the one side we have WBA whose output, whose product, is greater than one could expect if one piled up the components. On the other is us, whose output is falling well below that which the constituent parts ‘should’ yield.

Right that is the hair-shirt bit done.

We thankfully have the international break during which, I hope, the manager and the players can come together and identify what technical failings we have, defensively and offensively, and address them. We still have at least 12 games to go this season.

Despite the hysteria following yesterday’s defeat there remains an FA Cup to play for and crucial games against Citeh X2m, ManYoo and Spuds to be fiercely contested. And we have good player who can and will contest them as is their very lives depended on it. The points in the PL games can still provide a top four or top three finish, and that is still worth having despite what the ingrates will tell you. The results of those forthcoming games will be even more important than the previous 11 games since January. It is time for everyone in the club and who supports arsenal to put their shoulder to the wheel. In eight weeks time the season may look very different.

And I know no-one on here is foolish enough to take me at my word of a person’s life depending on the result of a football match allow me to share a family anniversary with you. 100 years today the 23 year old Lance Corporal John Nicol 9th battalion of the Seaforth Highlanders was killed at Arras.

 

NICOL_J copy

 

I am off to breakfast. Enjoy your Sunday.

 

 

 

 

138 Comments

Arsenal Versus West Brom: Pardon My French

beauty beast

Tony Pulis. There I said it. I know George hates it when we use foul language on his blog. There are outlets which won’t promote Positively Arsenal if it employs such revolting epithets and we are all about the numbers here as you well know. The advertising revenue alone keeps us in swimming pools and pearls and we must not piss off our sponsors.

However there comes a time when difficult issues must be faced and the Pulis is one of those issues. It wasn’t always so. Back in his playing days he was part of the Bristol Rovers golden generation along with ‘Jockey’ Wilson, Devon White and Ian Holloway and I applauded like a Stoke fan every crunching tackle, every score settled.

Of course he blotted his copy book by going on to manage at Ashton Gate, a move which ensured he was despised by both the blue and red halves of the city. After a long and celebrated stint in the Potteries he has now wound up at West Bromwich Albion and thither the mighty Arsenal must travel today and secure a much needed three points.

You might recall I mentioned a young man of my acquaintance who travelled up to London town for the recent FA Cup tie. I saw him last night and asked about his Emirates experience and his face split into a huge grin as he recalled a wonderful day out. He showed me his latest Arsenal shirt and then we got down to the nitty gritty. ‘How was the match?’ I enquired. His answer, refreshing in its honesty, neatly summed up much of our season, ‘We were rubbish in the first half’ he replied ‘but then we were great and won five nil’.

Not so complicated this football lark, is it?

The problem we often experience when anticipating a match is not knowing which version of Arsène Wenger’s project will show up on the day. The tentative, nervous, pass it about at the back under ever increasing pressure until they give up and let the keeper hoof it forward edition, or the free flowing, inventive, confident, improvisational theatre of full blooded Wengerball. Sometimes we even get both in the same game.

People say it’s infuriating, I see it as an intriguing example of the huge role mental confidence and relaxation plays at the highest level in any sport. Andy Murray gave an interview where he said that losing in the Wimbledon final to Federer was the ultimate piece in his jigsaw to becoming a top player. Defeat in the game he’d always seen as the pinnacle of potential achievement meant he’d experienced the worst. With that out of the way there was nothing left to fear, and he could play with a freedom from which he’d previously been inhibited. He wasn’t a better or worse player he just got his head right.

You could see in Aaron’s finish last weekend how important it was for him to find the net. A couple of chances had gone awry, the kind of chances he was dispatching with aplomb in his best season for us, and even though his goal was essentially a tap in he really needed it and whacked the ball into the net with a cathartic flourish. Will it open the floodgates? Time will tell.

Aaron, like Alex Oxlade-Chamberlain cannot be judged on this or recent seasons because both players are endlessly coming back from injuries. That or just about to get injured. It has been a frustrating time for them and I’m sure we all wish them a long sustained spell of good health and a proper chance to show what they are capable of.

Let’s hope Pulis and his boys don’t set out to further the injury woes of any of our players. It would be nice to see a sporting contest. The casual observer might deduce from our recent results that Arsenal is there for the taking, and this could, I suppose encourage in West Brom an adventurous spirit. I’d welcome this as the old attritional warfare against deep set defensive tactics is never easy on the eye. In any sport you cannot attack without creating vulnerabilities in defence so it might open the game up were they to sense blood.

I don’t actually believe Mr P will make the mistake of taking our results at face value. There has been some wonderful football among the dross and he will know that on our day we can demolish any side. The question he’ll be asking is very similar to the one I posed earlier. Which Arsenal side will show up at the Hawthorns today? Don’t be surprised if it’s a mix of both. To achieve one of the three hallowed places beneath champions elect Chelsea will call for some determined hard work as much as for fast moving, eye catching football. I’ll take a one nil win and some backs to the wall defending if it sets us on the right track for the run in. Of course I have the advantage of not travelling all the way to B71 and forking out for match tickets so I can be a little more relaxed about the nature of the performance.

If you are going I hope you enjoy a sizzling treat of speedy, confident Arsenal at its best and a result to match. If like me you will be at work from this morning right through to tomorrow lunchtime then I hope you avoid hearing the score and somehow navigate to the match on Arsenal Player without their giving the game away. They love to do that to us. Pages of headlines telling what happened before actually arriving at the match highlights and even then the video itself often displays a still clip from late in the game with the score clearly visible next to the time. It grinds my gears I don’t mind telling you.

See? Who says we’re afraid to criticise the club?