96 Comments

Arsenal: Home again and work to begin

@LaboGoon says what he likes about Allardyce (?) 

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Good morning one and all.

What a week we had, down in the dumps the one day, high on positivity the next – as the saying goes: what a difference a day make!

Speaking of days ……… Arsenal host Everton today at the Emirates, to not only shake off the disappointment of our last game but also build on the joy of events these last few days.

Everton is a different beast to the one we trashed 5-2 last time. And credit to Sam Allardyce, he inherited Koeman’s imbalanced side and there’s no denying that their results has picked at since. They had a bump recently losing 3 PL games on the bounce, then they signed Theo Walcott and boom, they drew vs WBA, Theo providing an assist, then beat Leicester, once again Theo scoring a brace. So he return to his old stomping ground riding a wave.

Of course Everton hasn’t basked in the glory of an Emirates victory yet, something Theo is quite familiar with but hopefully he won’t turn out being the straw breaking that particular camel’s back.
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(any excuse for a picture of a camel)

Arsenal, oh Arsenal. What do we bring into this fixture. Swansea wasn’t fun eh? Over the course of this season we have seen our defense being absolute warriors, but we’ve also seen them looking completely lost in a few games too many.

With us looking a difference beast too in attack with the former Borussia pair, we should be expecting a response. Not one where “attack is the best form of defense”, but just finding a balance between attack and defense in equal measure. Because if you have defensive solidity to not concede unnecessary  goals, you don’t need to be handing out thrashings.

This will be an interesting game though, with our new talent it’s crucial getting all in roles that’s suited to them to maximize the overall output of “the team”. Sam will be aware of this and will set up to deny us space and making his defense difficult to penetrate.

Say what you like about Big Sam, but he enjoyed his battles with Wenger, not very successful but he did came out of retirement to renew the rivalry with his old foe.
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To all going to the Emirates, do crank up the noise to give our new boys a warm welcome.

PS: on behalf of the PA community I just wanna say thanks to Mesut Özil for committing the rest of his peak years to the Arsenal. You are a model professional and truly deserving of the game’s gratitude.

108 Comments

Soft City Need to Man Up.

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Pep Guardiola is on a mission, He has started using press conferences and after match interviews to call for protection for this hugely expensive assembly of very talented and skillful players. He is demanding that referees give them protection from the deliberate assaults on them.

We now see many of the great and good journalists agreeing with him because it’s “only a matter of time” before one of the delicate little flowers get their legs broken. And do you know what? Pep is right and so are they. We have seen disgusting attempts to injure them in recent weeks.

These assaults are justified, by some, because less skillful players have to find a way of stopping them,otherwise they get battered. Even “good teams” like Spurs do it, with England’s finest, Kane and Alli, bang at it. Both of these two should have seen straight reds last time they met.

Every team, bar Arsenal and Liverpool perhaps, are at it. They are not going out to be strong and compete ,they are going out to injure. Of course they don’t want to break legs and ruin careers, they just want to hurt them enough to stop them playing well in that particular game. However, because the intention is to hurt, there is a huge chance that this approach leaves the victim with career changing damage. Its like driving past a school at 90 mph and then claiming you didn’t mean to kill the child you ran over, It was an accident, you are not that kind of driver. Dangerous play leads to injury. Simples.

Managers are sending players out to “get in their faces”, “leave some on him” and ” slow him down with physicality” They are asking players to overstep the mark and see how much the referee will let them get away with. They can deny it all they like, claim “its a contact sport, but anyone with half a brain knows what is going on.

Pep and his friendly journalist are right, they should be protected.

But here is where I have a problem, Arsene has been saying this since 2004, when United decided they couldn’t win a game of football, and with Mike Riley’s help, they would kick us off the park. That day they literally kicked José Antonio Reyes out of the game and all the way back to Spain.

In 2008 ,Arsenal were 8 points, clear, playing much like City are now, except with a far thinner and less experience squad. We all know what happened, rotational fouling of Fagregas ,Hleb, RVP and Rosicky was the norm and Eduardo was smashed beyond repair.  The injuries bit and we didn’t have anything like the required quality to come in (unlike City). The best football I have seen Arsenal play, was ended by brute force that was sanctioned by the referees.

Was there outrage in the media? Was there bollocks. We ,and specifically Arsene , were told to “man up”. We were told we had a soft center. Were not up for the fight. Were fragile. We were told we were a team of lightweights that were not up to the English game.

Pep Guardiola is 100% right, its disgusting what is happening to his team, but it has been happening to us for 14 years and continues every time we take the field. Ramsey effectively lost two years, Jack for God knows how long, and I suspect we have lost Santi because of the constant assaults on his achilles, Diaby?, and many more.

Where is the outrage from the press been for 14 years?

Pedantic George @arseblagger .

 

 

 

128 Comments

Arsenal: The Sting of the Swan

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Good morning Positives,

I can still feel the damp discomfort of last night’s result but the effect is gradually reducing, dulled by time and the opportunity to review the event and look forward.

It would be difficult for anyone to add much more to Arsene’s comments about the game pivoting on a number of mistakes by us, from experienced defenders on several occasions and the absolute  howler from Cech. Having had a second watch of the ‘highlights’ this morning that we went home beaten 3-1 was not as bad as it could have been.

I think as well as those crucial lapses there was just not enough quality in our attacking threat. A beautiful ball from Mesut and finish from Nacho for our first, a bit of trickery from Alex Iwobi, some nice movement from Aaron and Laca but it was nowhere near enough to unsettle the Swans back four.  I watched Klopp’s Liverpool lose at the Liberty last Monday, and Fabianski put in a MOTM performance and made a 10-12 excellent saves. Last night he had perhaps 2-3 stops to make. I saw a little bit of what I wanted from Henrikh but it was no night to make your debut, chasing a game in a monsoon.

A man I would excuse from criticism last night was Mo Elneny. He put in one goal saving tackle in the first half that was almost perfect. Not the man to replace as it turned out or the time to replace him, thought at the time I can see why the change was made.

Apart from the instinct to chase  the players and the managers’s through the streets demanding their blood and waving a rope can we earn anything from last night ?

Well my fourpence worth would be to decide to either play with a back four, or a back five. I don’t care which but stop changing from one to the other. Hector and Nacho seemed to be playing very wide and  up the pitch, as wing backs in fact, leaving Kosc and Mustafi on their own. When  Mo went off their isolation became critical.

At the other end of the pitch we saw the home side much better able than us to find space around and to open up the gaps in our defence, and they did that by aggressively running with the ball at their feet towards the aRsenal goal, inviting our defenders, Mo and Xhaka to either get stuck in or get out of the way. It was the SPEED at which they ran towards the defender with the ball that fractured us, not the quality of the attackers’ touch.

I would finally say a deserved win for Swansea. Clucas, Ayew and Mawson all stood out as impressive but a very good ‘team’ performance. Considering a few of them had played 90 minutes against Notts County in the Cup on Saturday they kept at it to the very end. If they are able to continue with that they surely will not end up relegated.

So six days on from the burst of joy and adrenaline the win against Chelsea gave us we bumped back to earth on the green, green grass of home.

We are fortunate to have a game on Saturday to clear the head and set the course for the run in with 13 PL games to go. Enjoy Wednesday.

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170 Comments

Arsenal: Liberty Rises

@LaboGoon spies out the Land of My Fathers

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Good morning Positivistas.

It’s the day before the transfer window slam shut and Arsenal is travelling to Swansea City, and as it’s known on these streets, to escape the transfer hoopla even if just temporary.

Last time we played Swansea they were in a bit of a mess but in Carlos Carvalhal they now have a new man at the helm. Life has been pretty kind to him thus far as his new team, while still rooted to the bottom, seem to be finding their stride a little bit as they come in this fixture having lost just once in his seven games in charge. Them playing in the FA Cup this past Saturday make this a short turnaround while Arsenal is coming in a bit fresher and off the back of two convincing victories, which they will want to follow up with another win to stay in touch of top 4.

When Carlos looked at the Swans’ fixture list and saw Liverpool and Arsenal in back-to-back PL games he probably told his team that if they can pick up 3 out of 6 points here it would be a great return. After picking up the 3 points vs Liverpool it now mean that although they can still fancy their chances, they can also afford to revert to a more defensive approach by looking to just restrict us whilst waiting patiently for chances to open up, which would be fair enough when even getting a single point will do it for them.

That being said, with our away form a bit of a worry we can expect a difficult game, so tonight we will have to put in another great all round team performance to batter through a proverbial bus.

On team news: Giroud is back from injury and our new boy Henrikh Mkhitaryan look set to make his debut in what is expected to be a very strong line-up and bench.

After a bumpy start to the year this last week has been great for us. We can sense there’s a real feel good feeling in and around the club, so win here tonight and we will have an opportunity to really kick on as we approach the final quarter of the season.

Good luck to everybody going to the game and all watching via the small screen. With Deadline Day looming… the Arsenal squad look set to be in much better shape than we started the season.

Come on you rip roaring you know what’s!

( a little musical interlude to get you in the mood – very emotional the Welsh)

57 Comments

Arsenal and Aubameyang: Transfer Myths vs Reality

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Greetings All Positives,

There is something about a transfer window that makes most grown men and women who support Arsenal Football Club get absolutely mental and irrational. Most of my readers are familiar with my thesis that it is our psychological susceptibility to fear vs greed that drives us to such irrational behavior.

How else can one explain the following mental lurch among the same group of fans?  On one hand, the absolute euphoria that Arsenal was able to sell Sanchez to United, a player with less than six months on his contract,  in exchange for a quality international midfielder in the form of  Henrik Mikhitaryan. Yet a week or so later, there is galactic fear that somehow the same Arsenal management is mishandling, literally “dithering” over the potential transfer of Pierre Emerick Aubameyang to the football club.

Thus on Twitter, that fount of reasoned debate and analysis, there were fans (echoing and echoed by the mainstream media) spouting the following nonsense:

  • Arsenal to show ambition by paying whatever BVB-Dortmund wants.
  • General manager, Ivan Gazidis and Chief scout, Seven Misinlat only visited Dortmund one week ago as a PR stunt.
  • The club is in the grips of the dictator Arsene Wenger, who for selfish egotistic reasons doesn’t want the transfer to go through as Ivan will get all the credit. There are several variants of the same theme.

As I was at pains to explain to my small following on Twitter, the minimal facts available surrounding the Auba transfer belie the stupidity and fear mongering:

  • The player is unhappy at Dortmund and wants out. (He was dropped for games and the latest attempt to prove his commitment to the club by playing him last Saturday was an unmitigated disaster given his tame performance and his booing by the fans.)
  • Arsenal has made substantial offer of reportedly £50 million.
  • There is no other club from the top leagues or even China who have made anything like a seriously competitive bid.

Last Thursday I tweeted the following:

Arsenal has BVB by the short and curly. Soon and very soon they will have to shit or get off the pot. Stay calm gooners.

In my opinion, as time has unfolded, it is almost certain Aubameyang will be a gooner before this window is closed. While past history is no guarantee of the future, this smacks of the Arshavin transfer saga. As Wikipedia reminds us:

During the January 2009 transfer window, Arshavin was persistently pursued by English Premier League club Arsenal. On 2 February, transfer deadline day, Arshavin was staying in a Hertfordshire hotel, just a few miles from the Arsenal training ground. At around 10 am, he left the hotel and was rumoured to be heading back to Russia, but with less than an hour of the transfer window left, a bid from Arsenal was finally accepted by Zenit. By this point, he had agreed personal terms and passed a medical, but a compensation payment by Arshavin himself to Zenit was supposedly holding up the deal. The deal was further complicated by a snowstorm in England that had delayed the Premier League’s registration process, eventually forcing the league to extend the deadline beyond 5 pm. The deal was not confirmed until the following day (3 February), nearly 24 hours after the formal transfer deadline had passed, with Arsenal announcing “a long-term deal” for an undisclosed fee.

Let’s hope it doesn’t become as dramatic. I have no idea whether snow is in the forecast for London on January 31st, but, after the post-Arshavin uproar by many PL clubs when the FA and the PL kept the registration window open, I doubt there will be a reprise. But if I was Aubameyang’s advisers, my recommendation would be a trip to London by no later than Monday, January 29th. It would certainly kick the last stool standing from under Dortmund and get matters moving in time to meet the deadline.

In support of my Aubameyang predictions, I have researched the stubborn, irrefutable facts demonstrating that Arsenal under Wenger is not afraid to spend money on transfers. However, unlike many in the PL and definitely its top-6 rivals, the club will only spend the money it has self-generated. Moreover Arsenal under Wenger will spend on world class players if they are available at the right price. This is clearly illustrated in following graphic of the net-transfer spending of the top-6 clubs over the past five summer transfer windows.

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It is self evident that Man City tops the charts with an astounding net-spend of $535 million. Clearly access to the sovereign wealth of the Emirate of Abu Dhabi poses a competitive advantage in the transfer market. Yet we have Pep Guardiola, to the amazement of many, admitting that despite the club’s willingness to do the Alexis transfer, he had to decline because the club has a wage budget. If Sanchez demanded salary of £450K per week, this represented £23.4 million per year. In contrast, amortizing his £40 million transfer cost over 5 years would be a mere £8 million per year expense on the club’s books.

What is equally astonishing however is Manchester United’s attempt to “keep up with the Jones” relying primarily on cash flows from operations. It is well known the Glazer family, as owners, instead of putting money in the club is extracting dividends and other payments. One wonders, despite its unmatched ability among PL clubs to generate revenues from its commercial affiliations, if United can afford a continuing arms race with City.

Third on the list of spenders is Chelsea, which, like City, pursues the sugar-daddy model of funding. But unlike the sheiks, who are the sovereigns of their State, Roman is one of several Russian oligarchs. It is evident he is not in the same spending league as City and United with Chelsea’s net spend over the period more than 50% less than the two.

Arsenal is fourth in the spending stakes at £134 million, which is a considerable turnaround from the prior five-year period when the club had to be content with negative spending as it was forced to live within the financial shackles required to pay for the new stadium. Thus the last five years has witnessed the transfer-in of quality players like Ozil, Sanchez and Lacazette. Compare that to the prior five years with having to sell the likes of Fabregas, Nasri and Van Persie.

Despite the five-year evidence of increased spending, it doesn’t prevent so-called Arsenal bloggers-podcasters-tweeters from using one transfer window of negative spending to falsely insinuate the club is hoarding its cash and refuses to improve the squad. Apparently Wenger and Arsenal’s history of outwitting their wealthier competitors, by patiently and opportunistically waiting for the right player at the right price is beyond their narrow, shallow intellectual capacity.

Lying in Arsenal’s wake in the spending tables is Liverpool and Tottenham. Despite much ado in the mainstream press about their ambition, especially their willingness to chop and change managers, Spurs in particular has shown a distinct reluctance to acquire major talent in the transfer market with a five year negative spend of £41 million. They had better thank their lucky stars Harry Kane has emerged as a decent striker and in Mauricio Pochettino they finally found a decent coach.

Compare and contrast for yourself the equivalent chart of the prior five years net transfer summer spending (2008-2013) of the same top-6 clubs:

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It never ceases to amazes me how normal, intelligent people succumb to transfer-window stupidity. Surely we have learnt that the mainstream media and most of the click-baiting blogs and web-sites will literally say or do anything to gain eyeballs which they can then monetize via web advertising for example. Surely an experienced adult should be able to see such fakery and immunize themselves against media manipulation. Is that too much to expect?

“Measure what is measurable, and make measurable what is not so” (Galileo)

113 Comments

Arsenal with Plan A, B and C.

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Good morning my positive friends.

When Andy Nic. and I arranged a job swap for this game, I have to admit I thought I might have gotten the shitty end of the stick. But no, not at all. I sit here in my bed in Blackburn (I’ll get up soon, I promise), with a smile on my face and an easy task.

We sent out the same team as we did vs Palace. No doubt hoping for a similar early display, champagne football , but no, Chelsea were all over us, pushing us back, forcing errors and rushed clearances, controlling the game and frankly making us look distinctly ordinary. They quickly worked a great goal, and i feared the worst.

Then we went to plan B. Dig in. Refuses to panic , roll up the sleeves and work harder on being solid. Monreal attacked the ball and fired a header goalward , It took two ricochets and ended up in the net . 1-1 . Better. For the rest of the first half it was more of an even game, but a fair man would still say Chelsea were shading it.

Then half time ,and the chance for Arsene to reorganise, plan C emerged . It appeared to me (I say “appeared” because I am far for a tactical expert) that we went to some sort hybrid system between 5 2 3 , 3 4 3 and 4 3 3 . The player dictating the changes was ElNeny.

He seemed to be playing as a CDM when we had the ball and a CB when they had the ball. Our wingbacks were more fullbacks off the ball than usual too.

There were odd moments of free flowing football,as you would expect, but this was a more grit,determination and sheer force of will performance . The winning goal was all about  effort over excellence from both Lacazette and Xhaka, fortunate, but earned.

Monreal was exceptional, ElNeny outstanding  and young Iwobi worked harder to contain them than we could have expected, and of course Mesut was glorious.

It was a fantastic effort from everyone involved. Working together as a team, fighting tooth and nail, just what the “experts” constantly suggest we cant do.

So we find ourselves looking for a 10th consecutive Wembley win against The UAE FC . I cant wait.

We can all enjoy this for a few days. and then a few days more.

Pedantic George ( @Arseblagger ) @arseblagger 

 

 

 

 

 

98 Comments

Arsenal: Opportunity beckons

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Good afternoon Positive Red People,

I trust we are all primed for his evening’s game which, by my reckoning, is our 8th serious contest with the Blues in the last 16 month. (W3L1D4). The semi final tie is perfectly balanced. Like us Conte’s men have struggle to score goals, despite bringing in an expensive striker in the Summer. Recent draws have been greeted  by the spoiled Stamford Bridge hoard with “Boooos”.  A home crowd booing ? Ridiculous.

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I anticipate both managers will put out their strongest possible sides, so that for me would involve Aaron  back, with young Alex Iwobi tasked with filling the departed Chilean’s role this evening. Will Sead come back in ? I hope so. It will be a wet, cold night, and perhaps run into extra time and penalties. A tank is likely to adapt to the conditions better than the smoother wheeled vehicle that is AMN.

Of our opponents Conte appeared to say that Cesc and Morata were out with injuries yesterday, and this morning’s MSM report that he and Batshuayi have had another contretemp – perhaps a dash from the Potteries for Crouchie iis not impossible after all (no I have no idea if he is Cup-tied either!)

One moment of brilliance from one of the many excellent players  on show, or one catastrophic error,  will ensure that one club and their supporters returns home in despair, and one triumphantly matches on down Wembley Way determined to dent Pep’s ambitions on the 25th February.  To lose at the semi final stage – very cruel. What I absolutely will not tolerate is cheating from players on either side. I expect all the players, and both managers, to do their best to assist the match officials over what will be a tense 90 or 120 minutes. Like all of you my fingers are firmly crossed that VAR will improve decision  making and erase both the cheating of opposition players and the refereeing errors that have cost us so often.

And speaking of brilliance;

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So settle in for kick off at 8.00 pm UK time. Lets have plenty of noise, clapping,  blowing your Arsehorns, and no sneaking out before the end.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

203 Comments

Arsenal: Slick and Professional

Good morning Positivistas,

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That was much much more like it. Football reared its lovely head across a wet North London Saturday afternoon. The players, all of them in fact,  delivered the fans 90 minutes of entertainment, and a comfortable three point win.

I have to admit a cloak of trepidation swaddled the Arsenal faithful on the way to the ground, after recent on pitch disappointments and off pitch shenanigans. It was understandable with January so far having been a month of one-step forward, two-steps back. Palace came into the game on  good run of form, over their past dozen Premier League games their only recent defeat to us and points take off Citeh and beating Chelsea.

Looking at the line up I sensed Arsene decided that that is was a key game in our season, and it as the best 11 who were available on the pitch, never mind future games or player “fatigue”. Elneny coming also gave us more energy in the centre of the park and freed Jack to rove forward. A fit again Ozil will always add quality to our movement and attaching threat. To start for what seems the first time this year (? maybe longer) with Nacho, Kosc and Mustafi gave us a more confident base from which to build.

And so it proved. It was a dream opening, no other word for it. After weeks of frustration with us struggling to create chances and thwarted by good goalkeepers when we did the Palace gates opened and we streamed in. 6 Nacho, 10 Iwobi, 13 Kosc and finally, our long suffering strokers, 22 Alexander Lacazette. Did you see him smile after the goal ?

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It has been a while since he has enjoyed the grinning feeling, so to speak.

And CORNERS eh ? Who said we cant take corners ! Pffft.

I read somewhere it is four years since a team has been 4-0 in the PL in 20 minutes ( yes it was THAT game). And none of the goals were breakaways, none were lucky deflections, OGs or  glaring defensive errors from Palace. It was good Arsenal football, crisp finishing and thoroughly deserved.

The second part of the match ? Clearly 4-0 up we slowed a little and consolidated our hold on the game. Hodgson appears to have done a fair job in rousing his lads at half time to ensure they did not end up totally thrashed and the visitors came out with a lot more purpose. Apart from the goal they eventually did get Palace had another couple of chances that Cech dealt with well. Zaha had an ‘interesting’ afternoon. The referee Kavanagh who I think was making his PL whistling debut had obviously read upon young Wilfried and gave him absolutely nothing, despite the full repertoire of theatrical tumbling and heart rending moaning from the Ivorian. Good.

With 15 minutes to go we wound down the game, packed the picnic away and headed for the car park. The job was done. And thoughts turned to the next fixture that kicks off on Wednesday !

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(If he plays his cards right he may get a selfie opportunity next time).

Enjoy Sunday.

91 Comments

Arsenal: Football breaks the window

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@LaboGoon opens the curtains 

January eh – don’t you just wish this month was over already? Well, at least not without a few wins under the belt, a ‘departure’ and one or two “top top” additions to our squad. Now that will really help to lift this gloom.

Arsenal host Crystal Palace at the Emirates this afternoon, with the goal being us making up lost ground on the top 4 teams. Albeit temporarily… but one never know.

What we do know is that when Roy took over the Eagles they were low in confidence and in desperate need of points. It was a bit touch-and-go initially but through immense fortitude they overcome their nervy patch and are now a formidable unit that take nothing for granted and give even less away, because they know they are not completely out of the woods yet as far as PL survival is concerned, ergo they go out there and play each game as if it’s a cup final, to not be left wondering.

In the last 12 rounds of PL fixtures Palace lost just once and that, of course, was vs us at Selhurst Park, which was also the last time we won a game in all competitions. Since then we lost our way a bit, starting with bad luck in the form of few questionable refereeing decisions, then doubts crept in, culminating in us looking short of ideas vs Bournemouth last Sunday.

That we are in the midst of a very unsettling period goes without saying, but we are just one good result away, that may not necessarily silence some of our critics but at least it will change the tide for these players, on and off the field.

To get over the line today we will have to up the intensity from what we’ve seen these last few weeks, as well as have a real go at Palace from the very first minute, because we’ve seen so many times if you leave things too late you are leaving it to chance.

The Emirates has been treating us good though, so I see no reason why we shouldn’t put in a solid performance to get the desired result.

On team news: Monreal and Koscielny are back in good health and Özil should also be fine. So even without Alexis we should still field a stronger side than in recent weeks.

Good luck to all going to the Emirates. I got a feeling today will be a good day to re-ignite the Arsenal torch.

***

171 Comments

Arsenal: Only a 40% Correlation between Penalties-For and Avg League Position

State of denial

It is amazing how far we as human beings, including us football fans; will go to deny reality, specifically to deny facts that do not conform with our deeply held beliefs. Denialism is a very common element of human behavior and is defined by the psychologists as:

“…a person’s choice to deny reality, as a way to avoid a psychologically uncomfortable truth. Denialism is an essentially irrational action that withholds the validation of a historical experience or event, when a person refuses to accept an empirically verifiable reality.”

The problem however with calling anyone or group of people a denialist is we are all guilty to some degree or other. After all denial is a psychological defense we all use at times to reduce our anxiety when reality feels particularly disturbing. Short of being clinically diagnosed as suffering from paranoia or delusional disorder, we all have the impulse to be denialists.

Unfortunately most human beings refuse to accept we are all psychologically inclined to act irrationally. That is why the majority will always be victims of those forces in our society who happy to take advantage of our irrational fears and anxieties and our impulse to retreat into denialism.

In some of my previous posts (most notably Fear And Despair vs The Arsenal) I used the example of the stock market to highlight how Arsenal fans, in particular, are emotionally manipulated by the media to believe the club is on the verge of disaster, despite an unmatched history of consistency in the Premier League and the consequent massive growth in the fanbase during the Wenger era. As a result many fans, perhaps a majority, have the irrational belief that a self-sustaining club like Arsenal will somehow achieve better results by getting rid of arguably their greatest manager ever.

Yet it is almost an absolute certainty that Stan Kroenke will never pursue the “sugar-daddy” model to compete with City, Chelsea and United. Furthermore, as long as the club grows organically and the value of his investment increases, there is almost zero probability Stan will sell his majority stake to Usmanov or, for that matter, to the Chinese vultures who no doubt are circling in the hope of acquiring a flagship PL club to add to their portfolio. If Arsenal PLC was a liquid stock on Wall St, the professionals, who profit by betting against human psychology, would never tire of taking money from the lemmings who sell whenever the media is unanimous that disaster is near.

That was a somewhat long-winded introduction to my main subject which is the denialism when it comes to the facts I have unearthed and published re PGMOL referees. Despite the data and accompanying statistics which show a historical pattern of bias against Arsenal in Penalties-Against, there are a multitude of naysayers who pooh-poohed my findings as if they were the exception and not the rule. One wonders if they would be satisfied if, someone had the wherewithal run a parallel PL league on a neutral planet with neutral referees using VAR and testing whether the distribution of penalties for was correlated with a club’s league ranking.

Not having those resources, I decided to test my hypothesis of bias by observing whether the average number of penalties awarded was in any way correlated to league standing in the PL. Surely it is reasonable to assume that the best ranked teams get the most penalties and vice-versa. If there is such a correlation, does Arsenal’s average penalty count correlate with its average league position?

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When the data is mapped graphically, we get a downward sloping graph from left to right which indicates the average 1st placed teams get 6 penalties per season and the 20th placed teams are down to just 2.6 pens. Obviously it is not a perfect slope. There is a lot of noise in the mid-table from 5th position downwards. This is partially explicable by the fact that these clubs are very inconsistent from year-to-year in contrast with the consistency of the historical top-4. But the pattern is unmistakable; over time, there is a negative relationship between league position and the average penalties a team earn.

To prove my point I did a statistical test to verify whether there was any correlation between the two variables. According to the Spearman test,  (the data covers the past 11 PL seasons) there is a 84% correlation between average league position and Penalties-For. On the contrary, while Arsenal averaged 3.5 in the league between 07/08 and 16/17, there is only a 40% correlation between Arsenal’s league position and the penalties it has been awarded, a more than 50% difference from that of all PL clubs. This is a disparity which in my opinion cannot be justified by glibly saying Gooners are “making excuses”, “picking on the refs”, etc. This is a significant chunk of  data spanning 11 years and covering 418 games. Something stinks and it is getting smellier.

Needless to say, the mainstream media and the major Arsenal bloggers, refuse to analyze and publicize the freely available data which reveals the PGMOL to be thoroughly biased and unfit for the purpose. By keeping quiet they are not merely in denial, they are very much aiding and abetting a corrupt, faulty system of officiating.

One wonders if the same PGMOL refs will be allowed to make the final penalty and offsides decisions when VAR is soon introduced into the PL.

Do football fans really believe that after making such a big show of using VAR in the recent Carabao Cup matches, the PGMOL and its allies in the football Establishment will meekly give up their power to influence games? If you do, then surely you have taken permanent residence in the State of Denial.