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Arsene vs Pep? As Some Arsenal Bloggers Lose The Plot

Posted by shotta_gooner on September 19, 2016 in All Posts

jimmy-in-glasses

Fresh after the Gunners win over Southampton last week, my roving eyes caught a blog that made we weep for everything that is Arsenal. Rather than using his blog to provide his readers with an insight into what Arsene is trying to achieve, the blogger used his headline and more than half of his subsequent prose to praise the manager of a rival team, writing giddy odes to his tactical brilliance.

“Pep Guardiola did something that I have always wanted Arsene Wenger to do: he bested Mourinho tactically.”

“And then I watched Arsenal. Maybe I shouldn’t watch Arsenal after watching a tactical masterclass like the one that Guardiola puts on.”

What would drive someone to crown Pep as king after a mere 4 weeks in the most ruthlessly competitive league in the world? Arsene Wenger went 16 years toe-to-toe with the most successful ever British coach, Alex Ferguson, the manager of the flag-bearer of English football, fought him to a draw in his 1st nine years. At the time Wenger had the players to compete and only fell behind when the club had to forego spending on the squad to focus on paying for the club’s new stadium.

During Arsene’s barren years Pep was given the chance to succeed with one of the members of the duopoly in Spain and thereafter had a similar gig at Bayern who are the colossus in German football. Fair play to the Spaniard for his brilliant success at both clubs but he and his sycophants will be badly mistaken if they think he will have a similarly easy ride in the PL where clubs like United and Chelsea can match his spending as well as acquire managers with comparable acumen. Not the least in the competitive landscape is Arsene and Arsenal who have closed the gap in financial resources and have 20 years of consistent success in the PL despite failing to win the PL since 2004.

But our blogger above and his cohorts, according to our “greed and despair” model (see Fear and Despair vs The Arsenal), find it easier to prey on their readers by sensationalizing Arsenal’s slow start to make predictions of doom and gloom.  Underlying the doom-mongering is their wistful desire that Arsene may be somehow eased out of his position. Not surprisingly the data tells a completely different story. (By the way 20 years of Wenger has provide us with a richness in numbers that is unparalleled among current EPL managers; 760 matches in one league across different eras and circumstances. When he retires my role on this blog will be redundant.)

I reviewed the 20 year history of Wenger’s teams to compare 1st Half of season performance vs 2nd Half. The summary statistic below is quite benign. It suggests under Wenger we have consistently averaged 74 points over a season with a relative evenness between 1st Half and 2nd Half . The data suggests there is no statistical difference in either points or league position.

Year 1st Half – Pts 1st Half – Pos 2nd Half – Pts Final – Pos Diff in Pts Diff in Pos
20 yr Mean 37 3 37 3 0 0

However, as you my regular readers are aware, the Wenger years must best be divided into two eras; Highbury vs Emirates, i.e. years with money to spend vs years without.

Highbury Years

Year 1st Half – Pts 1st Half – Pos 2nd Half – Pts Final – Pos Diff in Pts Diff in Pos
1996-97 36 2 32 3 -4 -1
1997-98 33 6 40 2 7 4
1998-99 32 5 46 1 14 4
1999-00 36 4 34 2 -2 2
2000-01 35 2 35 2 0 0
2001-02 36 2 51 1 15 1
2002-03 39 1 39 2 0 -1
2003-04 45 2 45 1 0 1
2004-05 41 2 42 2 1 0
2005-06 33 6 34 4 1 2
Mean Avg 37 3 40 2 3 1

Viola! In the years with money to spend Arsenal was not only a very competitive team, averaging 2nd place in the league, but most importantly we were a “2nd Half of the season team”. The club tended to become better as the season rolled on, showing over ten years an average three (3) point superiority in the second half. But what is most striking, in two of those three years when AFC came 1st, 1998-99 and 2001-02, the club battered its opponents in the 2nd half of the season, increasing its points haul by 14 and 15 points respectively.  There were only two out of those ten years that AFC had lesser points in the 2nd half of the season.  Eight out of ten years the club either maintained consistency or kept improving.

So there is a clear historical pattern by Wenger, when he had money, for his teams to generally improve as the season wears on. Yet we have a blogger who claims to “discuss Arsenal in a rational and calm manner” choosing to make Pep’s battering of a rival manager, who was then losing his 12th game in 30, the occasion to slaughter the boss of his own club and to opine that his club is not worth watching. Isn’t this the definition of “irrational behavior” as I discussed in my previous blog Lucas Perez: Another Eduardo-type signing!

So what of the later era? What does the data tell?

Emirates Years

Year 1st Half – Pts 1st Half – Pos 2nd Half – Pts Final – Pos Diff in Pts Diff in Pos
2006-07 33 4 35 4 2 0
2007-08 44 2 39 3 -5 -1
2008-09 23 3 32 4 9 -1
2009-10 41 3 27 4 -14 -1
2010-11 36 3 32 4 -4 -1
2011-12 36 4 34 3 -2 1
2012-13 33 5 40 4 7 1
2013-14 42 1 37 4 -5 -3
2014-15 42 1 33 3 -9 -2
2015-16 39 1 32 2 -7 -1
Mean Avg 37 3 34 4 -3 -1

Obviously a clear and sharp drop-off compared to the Highbury era. Not only has the average total points fallen from 77 to 71 but there has been a constant decline between the 1st and 2nd Half of the season, from 37 to 34 points.  Seven out of the ten years AFC’s points accrual went backwards, as much as 14 points in 2009-10. In contrast to Highbury, instead of our league position improving from 1st Half to 2nd Half, seven out of ten times it deteriorated.

Now there is a statistical glimmer of light in this data for Arsenal fans. Over the past ten years the average difference in league position between the 1st and 2nd Half of the season was a -1, with only two of the ten years showing a negative swing of two positions or more. As is well known, in the heat of competition Wenger and his teams have made every effort to qualify for the champion’s league. Furthermore the data demonstrates, without need for headlines, that over the past three successive seasons AFC has consistently improved its final league position despite a relatively large negative swing in points between 1st and 2nd Half of these seasons, ranging from -5 to -9.

Clearly if the club can reduce the negative swing of the past ten years and even resume the Highbury pattern of dominating in the 2nd Half of the season, then Pep or no-Pep Arsenal should be contending for the title.

As I previously tried to make the point in my prior blog Now Mr. Wenger Is The Inferior Manager, no professional investor would bet against Wenger’s consistency. To the contrary they would take advantage of the annual emotionally-driven, doom-mongering predictions that Arsenal will finish outside the top-four and take a position against the plebs. I am sure the book-makers play that game as well, posting odds that will induce many punters to bet against the Arsenal. No doubt they have been laughing all the way to the bank.

Now that Manchester United is imploding under Mourinho’s ineptitude and offensive cowardice, despite showing “ambition” and spending £150 million “early” in the transfer window, who is still willing to go all-in with Pep after 5-games into this new season?

No doubt many of you are familiar with that Jamaican cult classic movie and the theme song by Jimmy Cliff; “The Harder They Come, The Harder They Fall.”

Data source: http://www.statto.com

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Arsenal: As 99 Red Balloons Go By

Posted by anicoll5 on September 18, 2016 in All Posts

99rbLadies and gentlemen of the Positively Arsenal persuasion I bid you good morn,

Distinctly grey and damp up in Norfolk. There will be calls for “heating” later I suspect.

What of yesterday’s game ? I admit I settled into the game confident of the three points and a decent ++score although, given that Hull’s previous home games this season had been a win against the Champions on the opening day and a last, last minute one goal defeat to the team currently managed by a Portuguese from Salford, quite why I was so entirely nerveless I am unsure.

Irrational though my certainty may have been as the afternoon developed my position was justified by our dominance of the ball, our slicing the home side apart at will and, but for some tidy keeping and less than clinical finishing on our part, we would/should/could have been 4-5 ahead by half time, and into double figures by the time Mr East halted the event. I saw the possession statistics were just 60/40 in our favour. If that is accurate then all I can say is all our possession must have all been in their half and around their penalty area. The home side barely crossed the half way line with serious intent.

With a final score of 4-1, reliant on two late strikes ironically, the gulf between the sides was not demonstrated. Nevertheless it would have been unnecessarily cruel for Hull to have been entirely thrashed and for the 7-8 goals our performance probably should have racked up. The home side did their best, did not resort violence and when they went down to ten men their dogged refusal to give up is to their credit.Would it have made a jot of difference if Livermore had stayed in ? No.

Analysis ? Wenger has decided that Sanchez is a striker and is persevering in that project. I am delighted. The Chilean certainly has the raw talent to play in any position on the field, and to play well. I thought he was excellent yesterday. I see it was Alexis’ 99th game for us yesterday, hence the photograph above.

Iwobi was in for the Ox I think and he too had a fine afternoon. For such a young player to exert a decisive influence, to change the course of a game for the second time in four days, is the mark of real talent. The stats record six shots from him in his 77 minutes, and that strike rate is what we need from our midfield. I expect I shall soon forget his age.

A third laurel wreath for Mustafi who, as I said after his first game, looks like he has been playing for us for ages. Defensively he did not have much to do yesterday but after a hard game on Tuesday he was probably due an afternoon with his feet up. What struck me yesterday about our new German centre back is that, unlike Per, when the ball is passed to him at the back he is a) almost always further forward on the pitch rather than lurking in 10 metre square empty quadrant, and b) he distributes it forwards quickly. There is a little bit more speed/urgency in which we start attacking moves because that first pass gets off quicker. To be fair to the player also he is a confident passer, a typical Wenger footballer who looks up and sees the whole pitch.

Forward guidance ? Third in the League and not, despite our total dominance at the KCOM, quite hitting top gear yet, though each game has seen the fitness and meshing of our players improving. A sideshow on Tuesday, though one I am looking forward to as Forest are an old opponent whose virtue has been besmirched by poor owners and bad personnel decisions. And then, next Saturday, Conte, Costa and their Satanic Majesties roll into the Ems. I can feel my pulse beat just a little faster at that thought, and that is the exquisite pleasure of being a football fan.

Have a restful and contemplative Sunday, I shall.

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Arsenal Versus Hull: How Do You Like Them Apples?

Posted by steww on September 17, 2016 in All Posts

An Apple A Day...

Anyone who knows me knows of my interest in obsession, addictive behaviour and the curiously exaggerated importance we attach to football. Anyone who reads Positively Arsenal (you for instance) is an example of the most successful evolutionary outcome the world has ever seen. Intelligent beyond the imagination of our ancient ancestors, dangerous and powerful by many magnitudes beyond the limits of all other species. Don’t believe the Netflix programme Zoo. There is nothing the animal kingdom could ever do to threaten us now. We are mighty. We are at the very pinnacle of the selective process.

And yet we actively choose to allow a football match to dictate our mood each week. Not even the whole match either. The result alone can send us spinning to the depths of sullen, ill tempered misery. Snappish with those we love, enraged out of all proportion with anyone foolish enough to cross us.

I recently experienced a further manifestation of this football related mental disorder. I’ve been reading Homo Deus by Yuval Noah Harari. It’s a book full of fascinating insights into the algorithmic processes which drive our behaviours and just how little real choice or free will we actually have. In one section he describes experiments into the way the brain can be stimulated artificially. Scientists can entirely control the actions and desires of lab rats and are quick to reassure those concerned with animal rights that it’s all OK – the rats are convinced they’re enjoying the experiments because the scientists make them think they are.

Similar techniques are employed on humans to relieve depression, to make people feel they are making certain choices and are enjoying those choices. Trans cranial direct current stimulators are complex helmets worn by test subjects. They use electrical impulses fired directly at specific areas of the brain. Sally Adee, a journalist for the New Scientist agreed to take part in an experiment. She entered a combat simulation suite wearing such a helmet having previously attempted the ‘game’ without it. The first time she was terrified, panicked, and  in a real situation would have  very quickly been overcome by her assailants. When back in the suite and with the helmet taking charge of her mood, reflexes and choices she was transformed into a kind of Zen Rambo, calmly picking off every attacker in a relaxed, blissful, methodical orgy of virtual killing.

Without the usual humdrum human distractions of self doubt and external pressures Adee was turned into a proto futuristic super human. And what do you suppose was my first thought on reading about her experience? An operatic vision of the future of all human kind? A clear and terrifying insight into the techno-dystopia which awaits us? Nope. I pictured Santi Cazorla, his micro chip implants aglow, banishing all anxiety and the very possibility of failure as he stepped forward to take the winning penalty in the Champion’s League Final. Football. Of course. It invades almost every bloody thought we have.

Where Hull City are concerned Santi has already written his name on the Arsenal history book, never mind it’s future. Without any artificial support or stimulation, relying only on the natural ice water in his veins he placed as perfect a free kick as you could hope to see over the Tiger’s wall and put us back into the FA Cup final at as good a moment as he could have chosen. The rest, as they say is cliché, but I believe it was that moment which sparked the latest successful chapter in Arsène and Arsenal’s illustrious story.

Poor Hull have really suffered against us in that particular competition. In the league one would need to go back to 2008 for their last victory over us and all the way back to 1915 for the win before that. So history suggests the three points should be eminently achievable. Of course as Mark Twain said “History doesn’t repeat itself, but it does rhyme.”  Although I’m not sure quite how much to read into that where today’s game is concerned.

Hull were written off by the ‘experts’ before a ball had been kicked this season. Losing their long time manager, short of players, the subject of takeover attempts, and with unrest among the fans in the stadium their return to the Premiership looked less than triumphant. And so of course they proceeded to beat the champions on the opening day and won their following two matches coming a cropper at Old Trafford by the only goal of the game before drawing away to Burnley. Their caretaker boss picked up the manager of the month for August and now we travel to the KCOM stadium on equal points with the home side unsure precisely what to expect.

Traditionally the game against unfancied opposition in the week of a Champion’s League fixture is seen as a potential banana skin. In truth any Premier League side presents a threat, no results are guaranteed. While we have been treated to some thoroughly entertaining games so far this season I can’t say the machine has been running as smoothly as I might have hoped. A couple of players have looked a little short of form and the team as a whole hasn’t seemed as coherent as we have come to expect.

I strongly suspect the hangover from the international tournament, allied to the new faces in the squad has hampered smooth progress. Arsène must take into account the players who require a long lead time into the season following their gruelling summer, those coming back from injuries and those he needs to integrate into their new surroundings. He has unsurprisingly stuck with tested combinations where he can and used the new guys sparingly. The obvious exception is Mustafi who, given the injury problems in his particular area of expertise, has had to get straight on with the job .

These issues will of course cease to be a problem as the season progresses. The crucial thing is to keep grinding out the results until things settle down. As much as I’d like a repeat of the first half of the Watford game I’ll settle for the grim determination with which we climbed back into the saddle after PSG looked like they had knocked us clean out of our stirrups in the first minute. Will we see a changed team sheet? You know what, I never used to play those silly selection games so beloved of the amateur footy writer and so far when I have pondered on the likely line up I’ve been sufficiently wide of the mark to remind me why I don’t pad out the blog with such nonsense.

All we know for sure is Arsène’s preferred back five and that when fit, Mesut and Alexis will be very likely to start. The other four places are anybody’s guess. Why football fans like to moan about the manager’s selection is truly baffling. Naturally we have our favourites and we always want to see our favourites play but there is something wrong with your mental health not the manager’s if you think that should have any bearing on team selection.

Your green grocer knows best how many Granny Smiths he’s likely to need to order for any given week. You don’t. All you know is when you fancy an Egremont Russet for a change but he has sold out of them you experience disappointment. It doesn’t mean the greengrocer is a moron nor that it’s appropriate for you to call him one. It certainly doesn’t qualify you to lecture him on which apples he ought to stock.

Anyway, whatever the line up with which  the man in the know decides to go there are players who will be either keen to keep their places with a very strong bench breathing down their necks or others extremely motivated to shine if given a chance to start. All of which ought to bode well for the team and therefore for us super evolved, highly intelligent, mega beings who’s happiness is entirely dependant on them having a good day at the office.

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Arsenal: Little Bit Steel, Little Bit Lace

Posted by anicoll5 on September 14, 2016 in All Posts

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Good Morning Positivistas.

A hard-earned but deserved point earned in Paris last night against a home side who performed better than I anticipated and on the back of a performance from us, over the 94 minutes, that I would give no more than 7/10.

I was not remotely surprised to see David Ospina start. He is a top ‘keeper and needs time on the pitch. I was surprised to see Xhaka on the bench but Le Coq and Santi is evidently AW’s current preferred starting combination.

It appeared that new man Emery had told his lads in blue to get into us from referee Kassai’s first whistle. An understandable tactic and one that clearly paid an immediate dividend with a good run and cross from Aurier, and a great angled header from Cavani. We were barely off our stool when we found ourselves flat on our collective backs in 42 seconds. Ouch!

Thereafter for the next 15 minutes PSG worked with feverish energy to deny every Arsenal player any time and space. We could barely get the ball let alone keep possession and our hosts’ aspirations to be among the genuine CL contenders were amply demonstrated. I imagine this is what the home crowd are used to with so little domestic competition. We were holding on, but only just.

However, after that opening 15-20 minute frantic phase, their pace dropped a notch and gradually, very gradually, we began to get control of the ball. We began to string two or three passes together, we approached their box with just a hint of threat. My view was that the remainder of the first half was 50/50. We had more possession and spent more time in their half. They sat back and relied on a breakaway or error, with Cavani failing to hit the target with one fair chance, and missing the ball altogether eight yards out. £55 million eh – what does it get you nowadays?

The second 45 I thought we began with more pace and energy, and tightened up in midfield. Passing that had been wayward became a little more careful. Defensively the threat of Aurier raiding Nacho’s territory was quelled after a testing first 45 for the Spaniard.

To and fro the game went, a couple of heart-in-mouth moments which Ospina dealt with well. He is a goalkeeper, that is what he does although the apparently incredulous commentators, each time he made a save, did not appear to really ‘get’ that. By full time the collective media narrative had been changed to these Parisian goal scoring chances being “missed” by Cavani and/or Di Maria, with David seemingly a passive bystander.

For us as the half progressed, with Olivier on and Sanchez in his more familiar flank role, we created a couple of half chances for us but without really testing the delightfully named Alphonse Areola.

In the end however the home side cracked, as we knew they must. For one of the few times in the evening we had a lot of players in the box, Iwobi was faster to the ball than the home defenders, his blocked shot hammered back past Areola. One half-chance to Alexis, one goal. Excellent finishing. PSG looked shocked, I don’t know why. These things happen if you are only 1-0 up.

The final 15 minutes whizzed by, chances at both ends. Well done to both teams who went for the result rather than settle for what was, for both, an acceptable point.

Standout for Arsenal on the night was Iwobi, Ospina, Le Coq and Santi. Given he was on an early card Francis definitely deserved a pat on the back. When he did get on for the final 20 minutes I also thought Granit did well. He brought just the correct length and width of steel and at just the right time.

The mainstream media last night was focussed on PSG’s Cavani and Aurier last night, the former as a figure of ridicule in the end, the latter for a good attacking full back effort. I was also much struck by Matuidi who worked well as a wide attacking midfielder. He is big, fast and tough and Hector does not have to face any like that in England.

The red cards? I did not see it. I may look later.

Enjoy your Tuesday. A spare day before the game at Hull on Saturday. I am off to Leeds in a few minutes so I shall be living the dream.

010227

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Arsenal Versus Paris St Germain: No Good Deed Goes Unpunished

Posted by steww on September 13, 2016 in All Posts

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What is the greatest of all human qualities? Charity? Self sacrifice for the greater good? Giving with no expectation of personal gain? I suspect these and variants thereof would figure pretty highly on everybody’s list. How about humility, modesty and a humble willingness to allow one’s good deeds to increase anonymously the water in the well of human kindness?

All of this and more can and should be applied to many altruistic, humanitarian, noble, and self effacing people working the world over with tireless dedication to alleviating suffering and fighting injustice. But there is another entirely forgotten, overlooked and ill used species of human for whom no eulogies will be read and no tears shed. I speak of the humble football blogger who despite churning out a thousand words in anticipation of Saturday’s Premier league clash with Southampton is expected a mere three days later to come up with another carefully honed verbal sculpture.  Not only that but he is presumed to be content writing about a game which (and it is painful merely to contemplate typing these words) he will not even be able to watch himself.

One of the many great achievements of Arsène Wenger’s tenure in north London has been continuous qualification for the Champion’s League. A staggering achievement for any manager at any club but when one factors in the years of thrift and expediency when paying for a new stadium during a global financial crisis it is quite simply astonishing. Our reward for supporting him in his endeavour comes on days like these, when our beloved team gets to pit its wits against the best of the best in European club football.

The fixture dwarfs the domestic cup competitions and throws a deep shadow over its déclassé neighbour The Europa League. To miss the opening of this season’s European campaign is unthinkable. To miss it and still step up and write for the pleasure of those lucky or sensible enough to be watching is an act surely worthy of sainthood.

But I don’t want to draw attention to my own plight. It is a given that charity and true selflessness are conducted quietly and away from the spotlight. I shall soldier bravely on knowing that at least my friends will be settling down on their sofas this evening with a chilled six pack of Bavarian Pilsner and a family bag of paprika Kettle Chips ready to witness the curtain raiser on our tilt at the European crown.

In case you have recently arrived from Alpha Centauri allow me to explain. Arsenal are travelling to Paris this evening to play against the Champions of French Ligue Une. Champions for the previous four seasons I might add and a side who boast such luminaries of world football as Adrien Rabiot, Serge Aurier, Ángel Di María, Layvin Kurzawa and Lucas Moura. Last year PSG coasted through their qualifying group just three points behind Real Madrid, the eventual winners. They brushed aside Chelsea in the round of sixteen before losing by the odd goal in the Quarter finals to Manchester City. It’s fair to say then that they’ve had mixed results against British clubs in recent times.

Given their resources and immediate history in the competition one would expect them to top the group and stroll into the the next round. I’d like to think that Arsène’s army can shove a stick into the spokes of that particular wheel, starting tonight. Unfortunately in the last two years we’ve not started well in the Champion’s League, losing both of our opening matches. However as I’m sure Shotta would point out these results were statistical anomalies when compared with an unbroken string of unbeaten opening games stretching back to 2003.

Neither side has been in great form recently. After a good start to their season our opponents were roundly gubbed by Monaco and suffered the ignominy of a late, late equaliser against St Etienne. As you know, but for the benefit of our inter galactic visitor I’ll say it anyway, Arsenal have yet to hit their stride this season. Ending up on the wrong side of a seven goal opening day thriller with Liverpool the subsequent games have seen us unable to find the net at Leicester, brilliant for forty five minutes at Watford and patchy against Southampton. I like to think that the first half at Vicarage Road is the true indicator of what is to come and once we regain our touch and composure the Wengerball will start to flow again.

It’ll be interesting to see who starts up front tonight. I thought the new boy showed a good work rate and some nice touches but looked, unsurprisingly, as if he was unfamiliar both with and to his team mates. Whereas in Olivier they have a man who’s game they know and understand. The biggest difference seemed to me to be in hold up play. Larry is possessed of preternatural touch and control combined with massive strength. He is adept at winning and keeping the ball and turning it around the corner for the midfield runners to carry the threat beyond the central defenders. Perez or Lucas or whatever we’re supposed to call him (I’m sure I’ll be told) seemed to look more for the immediate one touch lay off enabling him to spin in anticipation of the return pass, and go beyond the defence himself.

Both are perfectly acceptable strategies but in Olly’s case the players around him know the game and play to his strengths, whereas at times Lucas Perez caught them unawares. Will the bedding in process continue from the start or will the manager opt for continuity, familiarity and a man proven able to play alone up front on a difficult European night? We shall see. The other decision seems to me to be a choice between Granit and Francis and Santi. Perm any two from three. Given Santi’s age and his endeavours against the Saints on Saturday will we see a less creative but more solid anchor or will the tried and tested SC / FC axis be preferred?

If any of this has any bearing on the manager’s thoughts then whither Mo Elneny? Withering on the vine or flourishing under the Parisian spotlights? This squad really does throw up some fascinating conundrums. All will of course be revealed to those of you fortunate enough to be glued to your screens this evening. Some of us however, and I mention no names, are giving their time to a good cause and must miss the match. The less charitable among you may suspect that I agreed to this evening’s task in a moment of forgetfulness not realising there was a match tonight. I prefer to see myself as the martyr laying down his love of the beautiful game to help out a pal. But like Smashy and Nicey, while I may do a lot of good deeds, I don’t like to talk about them too much.

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Is Mustafi Arsenal’s Most Important Signing?

Posted by shotta_gooner on September 12, 2016 in All Posts

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With very minor exceptions the signing of Shkordan Mustafi, 2 days before deadline day, was met with the usual sensationalist delight by the mainstream media. Most reveled in Arsenal’s contribution to English football setting a new transfer record of £1.2b this past window.

In terms of footballing analysis most saw it simply as Wenger turning to Mustafi to ease his defensive crisis. According to Sky Sports:

The £35m fee is considerable. But it might just be money well spent. Mustafi has the quality to be a significant upgrade on Gabriel Paulista and with Mertesacker turning 32 this month, there’s a vacancy to be filled. 

Very few of the pundits seem to look beyond the price tag, Tom Adams of ESPN seemed unto something when he observed that:

In such lavish times, it is possible to miss the importance of a transfer fee even as high as the £35m Arsenal have reportedly paid for the 24-year-old Mustafi, who became the second signing of the most expensive day in Wenger’s career with the earlier capture of Spanish forward Lucas Perez for £17m making Arsenal’s total outlay on Tuesday a cool £52m. These are not the biggest deals of the summer by any means. Yet in particular, the signing of Mustafi from Valencia is hugely significant.

Yes the transfer is considerable based on the past five years of signings by Wenger:

SEASON PLAYER COST (£)
2013-14 Mesut  Ozil        42,500,000
2014-15 Alexis Sánchez        35,000,000
2016-17 Shkodran Mustafi        35,000,000
2016-17 Granit Xhaka        33,800,000
2012-13 Santi Cazorla        20,000,000
2014-15 Calum Chambers        16,000,000
2014-15 Danny Welbeck        16,000,000
2012-13 Olivier Giroud        13,000,000
2011-12 Alex Oxlade-Chamberlain        12,000,000
2014-15 Mathieu Debuchy        12,000,000
2012-13 Lukas Podolski 11,000,000
2011-12 Gervinho        10,600,000
2011-12 Mikel Arteta        10,000,000
2011-12 Per Mertesacker        10,000,000
2015-16 Petr Čech        10,000,000
2012-13 Nacho Monreal          8,300,000
2011-12 André Santos          6,200,000
2015-16 Mohamed Elneny          5,000,000
2014-15 David Ospina          3,000,000
2011-12 Park Chu-Young          3,000,000
2011-12 Joel Campbell             950,000
2011-12 Thomas Eisfeld             475,000

The ESPN man did not need to be a rocket scientist when noting:

Over the past five years Not only is the German the joint second most expensive signing in Arsenal’s history, along with Alexis Sanchez and Granit Xhaka, he is also the most expensive defender Wenger has signed by some distance, his fee dwarfing the £16m paid for Calum Chambers two summers ago.

But then his analysis stopped short, restricting himself to the conclusion that:

It is … a riposte to the very vocal elements of the support who have demanded that Wenger spend some money. This summer, Wenger cannot be accused of going AWOL in the transfer market or treating the club’s vast resources like his last tranche of personal savings. The best part of £90m has been spent on new players. Arsenal have not stood to the side, holding their nose in disgust while other clubs have indulged in an orgy of greed; they have, belatedly, become willing participants.

We at PA cannot restrict ourselves to such trite analysis. As my investment advisers would warn, beware of cherry-picking of data “to reinforce emotional responses”.

Many of us are now increasingly aware that Wenger has been rebuilding a squad that can truly compete for the title. He has been ruthless and deliberate. Note that of the class of 2011-12, with the exception of Mertesacker and The Ox, none of the others have made the cut for 2016-17. They have either been sold, loaned or let go as their contract expired.  Meanwhile forwards, midfielders and goalkeeping positions have been reinforced by very capable, experienced players. Ozil, Sanchez and Cech are indisputably among the very best, to use that hackneyed phrase, world-class. Why therefore such a heavy expenditure on a defender?

The key can be found in the data from my last blog when I compared Wenger’s Highbury vs Emirate years.

Highbury Years

Year Wins D L GF GA GD PTS POS
96-97 19 11 8 62 32 30 68 3
97-98 23 9 6 68 33 35 78 1
98-99 22 12 4 59 17 42 78 2
99-00 22 7 9 73 43 30 73 2
00-01 20 10 8 63 38 25 70 2
01-02 26 9 3 79 36 43 87 1
02-03 23 9 6 85 42 43 78 2
03-04 26 12 0 73 26 47 90 1
04-05 25 8 5 87 36 51 83 2
05-06 20 7 11 68 31 37 67 4
Mean Avg 23 9 6 72 33 38 77 2.0

Contrary to current mythology, at Highbury we were never a rampant, free flowing goal-scoring machine. We only averaged 1.9 goals per game in 10 years under Wenger. In fact those seasons when we scored a relative avalanche of goals, 85 in 02-03 and 87 in 04-05, we failed to win the title. What was distinctive at the old ground was the meanness of our defending; averaging a measly .87 goals per game in those halcyon years. The most impressive year was in 98-99 when we allowed in a mere 17 goals for the season vs a paltry 59 GF, coming 2nd. Boring old Arsenal, eh.

I am very struck by the fact that after conceding an economical 36 goals in 01-02, to win the title, Wenger and Dein latched unto Sol Campbell’s desire to free himself from the hell-hole at the Lane. The rest we all know is history. What is not as well-known is The Invincibles let in a measly 26 goals, an average of 0.68 per game. They only scored 73. Compare and contrast with the barren period that followed.

Emirate Years

Year Wins D L GF GA GD PTS POS
06-07 19 7 11 63 35 28 68 4
07-08 24 11 3 74 31 43 83 3
08-09 20 12 6 68 37 31 72 4
09-10 23 6 9 83 41 42 75 3
10-11 19 11 8 72 43 29 68 4
11-12 21 7 10 74 49 25 70 3
12-13 21 10 7 72 37 35 73 4
13-14 24 7 7 68 41 27 79 4
14-15 22 9 7 71 36 35 75 3
15-16 20 11 7 65 36 29 71 2
Mean Avg 21 9 8 71 39 32 73 3.4

Shock, shock, shock. The defending at Ashburton Grove is far from the high standards of Highbury, deteriorating by 18% between eras from an average 33 to 39 GA. Currently we are easily allowing in one goal per game compared to 0.87 at Highbury. In contrast goal scoring had a mere decline of 2.7% between eras. As a result average Goal Difference (GD) between eras fell from 38 to 32, a 15% deterioration.

After the club let in four goals at home vs Liverpool on the season-opener, is it any wonder Mustafi started vs Southhampton at the first opportunity. Now it makes sense Wenger decided that, despite a hefty £16 million investment in Callum Chambers, it was better to pack him off to Middleborough to complete his education. Obviously, like Sol Campbell, Mustafi is not only one for the future, he is for the present. In the words of Arsene:

“He is at the right age. He has good experience. He is a very focused player who can play with the ball as well. We have taken a great player but have prepared well for the future.”

Finally, let me remind you that in 07-08, when in my opinion we posed our last real challenge for the title, we let in a measly 31 goals for the season or 0.82 per game. So far after four games we are 6 GA or 1.5 per game. Clearly we have some ways off in getting anywhere close to 0.87 but it is still early days. But the data is compelling; lowering the GA is the key to why Mustafi could be our most important signing.

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Arsenal : Bon Anniversaire Laurent

Posted by anicoll5 on September 11, 2016 in All Posts

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Good morning Positives far and near,

A bright morning in Norfolk with just a hint of autumn in the garden.

As we all saw a valuable three points gathered in yesterday against a well-organised Southampton side maintains our PL momentum. This morning we sit just on the shoulder of the leading pack, tucked in nicely with games against Hull and then Chelsea in prospect.

Of yesterday’s game it was an absorbing contest. By no means classic Wengerball but a game in which, as the cliché goes “ we ground out a result”. We started slowly in comparison to Southampton and it took the opening goal to jolt us out of our hesitant state.

Saints came with a plan which very nearly worked, and it had nothing to do with bus parking. The visitors started with three players in attack, Tadic and Redmond of the wings and Rodriguez/Long more or less up the middle and tactically it caused us problems all afternoon. With Van Dijk and Fonte resolute at the back, Classie and Romelu breaking up midfield Fraser Foster had a much much quieter afternoon than I can recall he has ever had at the Ems. I can understand why their manager went away frustrated to earn nothing but praise for his team’s quality and application.

The result turned on small events and, for once, I enjoyed an excellent view of some of them from my spot in the Clock End. Watching the incidents last night on the box I would not have picked them up or their importance without seeing them live.

Most controversial was the alleged foul on Long in time added on by Monreal that Referee Madeley refused to give and from which, via a corner, our winning penalty came. Looking at the incident from 90 degrees to the action Nacho barely touched the Saints striker, the merest of contact with the back of his heel, accidental and on the basis of which the Irishman leapt into the air like a spawning salmon, clutched his face in agony etc. The TV idiocracy last night castigated the referee for failing to punish the so-called infringement. I quote “ he raked his studs down the back of Long’s ankle”. As Nacho was on a yellow card, it would have been curtains for him and curtains for our three points. Bollocks, Long cheated, Madeley spotted it for what it was. If the Southampton manager or any Southampton fan wants to complain then have a go at the idiot who stupidly gave the away the ball in the corner, in time added on, by trying to cheat.

Of our players the two new boys both did well. Mustafi looked as though he had been with us for months and while Perez found it difficult to get any space or time against the centre backs he was constantly moving and made a few nice touches. He will have easier games to get up to speed. Santi pulled the strings, master puppeteer that he is, Le Coz worked his arse off as usual ( and did you notice Francis did not get a card yesterday?) , and Hector and Nacho coped admirably with the Saints wingers and out in their usual attacking shift. Mesut had a quiet afternoon but when you are that good people notice if you so not orchestrate the decisive moments of a game. Even Mozart hit a few bum notes sometimes.

And what a goal from the birthday boy. I saw it described last night as “the finest goal ever scored by a French defender, anywhere, ever”. I think that is just about fair. In the context of our season it may be even more notable than that.

arsenal-v-southampton

And finally a word of praise to our fans. We worked well to get get Foster booked early, which in it own small way was also a factor in our late, late victory. Onward to Paris, and in the words of M. de Lisle;

Allons enfants de la Arsenal,
Le jour de gloire est arrivé!

Enjoy your Sunday.

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Arsenal Versus Southampton : Bogeys In The Long Grass

Posted by steww on September 10, 2016 in All Posts

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I’m having terrible trouble getting going this season. After a prolonged summer break recovering from the effects of the interminable internationals I crept from the long grass, blinking in the light of day, just in time to preview a routine victory against Watford. I was then immediately given the bum’s rush and booted back into touch once again. Why did they need to play more internationals so soon? It beats, as our American friends are so fond of saying, me. You might have thought they’d have learned their lesson, especially the English, following their débâcle en France.

It is, as a consequence, with heady sense of déjà vu, that I float the suggestion that our season proper starts today. Actually, I don’t think it is déjà vu because I’m pretty certain I said as much in my previous preview. Although if it were déjà vu I would think that wouldn’t I? Bloody awkward organ the brain.

Never mind all that. What matters as far as the stale and uninspiring football fodder we’ve been served since last we witnessed the real thing, is did our players come through their ordeals unscathed? All I can tell from Arsène’s remarks to the reptiles yesterday is that Ospina and Alexis didn’t get home until late on Thursday night, the implication being that they may be a little groggy still. With a big game on Tuesday evening one might be forgiven for  wondering if our Chilean action man may miss out today.

With Alex Oxlade-Chamberlain champing at the bit to prove himself this season and the Premiership’s most exciting young player, Alex Iwobi, back in the squad we are more than capable of filling the left flank of our attacking triumvirate, but it will still be a shame not to see our diminutive number seven. His first half display against Watford was a joy to watch. He wasn’t just fast, eager and full of running – let’s be fair any moderately healthy and enthusiastic young person can show willing and trot about a bit – but he linked exquisitely with team mates and really terrorised the home defence. Apart from one howler when he chose not to pass with Theo unmarked in the area and the keeper committed his decision making and passing were exemplary. It would have been wonderful to see him build on that, put Southampton to the sword and really make opponents sit up and take notice.

One of the advantages we used to have was players of whom other teams were properly scared. It’s a vital ingredient. I remember Tomáš Rosický scoring a goal against some side from the north. I think they were from the north anyway. They wore red. Possibly. I must confess my memory for the superficial details of life is a little lacking. Blame my great age. Either way my point is the space he created was due in part to the headless chicken act from the opposing defenders as they contemplated a certain French fox in their midst. Henry created room for his mates to exploit simply by being on the pitch. It’s an unmeasurable quality certain people bring to bear on a game often decided by slender margins. Suarez did it for Liverpool and made some fairly good but not spectacular players look very much better for a season. Heck he made Brendan Rodgers look like a half decent manager. Briefly.

I believe Alexis can be that kind of player for us. I think Mesut is the one they really ought to fear but his position on the pitch and his all round game are such that he tends to be the one passing the stiletto rather than sliding it between the ribs. It’s the pugnacious presence of Sanchez which really gets the defender’s attention and when he performs as he did for the first forty five at Vicarage Road they end up chasing shadows or just falling over.

Oops, I’ve done it again. I’ve ignored the laws of The Professional Transfer League and not been talking about the right players have I? No one wants to hear about yesterday’s chip papers when there are new kids on the block. The big question is which, if any, of our recent additions might play today.

Looking back, I  think Arsène has a tendency to bung defenders straight onto the grill and see how they sizzle. In contrast I believe he prefers to ease his strikers more carefully into the side. If we take Eduardo as the template he started a lot of cup games but wasn’t the immediate first choice in the league. Of course this is a blog and in common with all other football blogs is based on wild assumption, unsubstantiated guesswork and amateur opinion. If my mind has done me a disservice I apologise. I was simply pulling some vague notions from the dusty, cobwebbed, crumbling back room of my memory to support the hypothesis that while we might see poor Noddy Holding reduced to an also ran despite as good a start to an Arsenal career as one could ever hope to see, I doubt that señor Perez will join Herr Mustafi in the starting line up at 3pm.

I just feel that while we are still bedding in a new midfield linchpin, altering our back five and adjusting to life without Aaron and (potentially) Alexis too, throwing another new face into the mix could only be disruptive and unhelpful. But what on earth do I, you or any of us know about it? Luckily enough, while we fill the hours before kick off with idle speculation, there is a man who makes such decisions for us and all we really need to do is sit back and watch the show.

It needs to be a better show than any we saw against the Saints last season that’s for certain. While their inability to win a league game at the Emirates disqualifies them from being a bona fide bogey team they have been a right royal douleur dans le dos. In fact we’ve only won once in our previous six matches against them in all competitions. The shocking nature of their victory on boxing day when a win would have put us on top of the league still causes me to push my spoon around the mulligatawny in a disconsolate manner (if that match happens to pop into my mind over dinner that is). We simply must do better today. I don’t subscribe to the idea that we can lose too much ground in September but two home defeats on the bounce is seldom title winning form.

I shall not, however, entertain such negative thoughts this morning and I adjure you to abstain from the same. Let us instead anticipate the return of our brave boys from the far flung reaches of the globe, welcome the new faces and eagerly anticipate a similar display to that with which Watford were so comprehensively dismantled. If you’re going to the game I hope you get your money’s worth, if like me you’re confined to the watching on  the small screen, I’ll see you here at 3pm.

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Now Mr. Wenger Is The Inferior Manager

Posted by shotta_gooner on September 5, 2016 in All Posts

Arsene-Wenger-in-L-Equipe-s-Sports-and-Style-Magazine

From all the commentary since September 1st, the transfer window was exceptional for those in the marketplace who believe in the primacy of transfers in attaining competitive success in football. As a result the mainstream media and its fellow travelers milked every ounce of sensationalism they could, jubilantly proclaiming that English clubs had smashed through the £1bn transfer barrier. With Sky and BT Sport paying a record £5.136bn for Premier League TV rights from 2016-17, clubs had the motivation to buy and the sellers were only too happy to oblige. If, as the mainstream media has proclaimed, more spending results in better footballers, then surely a £1,435,420,000 outlay in 2016 should result in a doubling of the quality of the football compared to 5 years ago when only £627,881,000 was spent that summer. Hmm.

Applying the logic of the mainstream media to Arsenal, surely the club should be odds on to win the 2016-17 title. Take a gander at the following table of Arsenal’s last six years in the transfer market:

Purchased Sold  Net League Pos
2016/17 £92,900,000 £6,750,000 £86,150,000 ?
2015/16 £15,000,000 £1,800,000 £13,200,000 2
2014/15 £95,600,000 £30,200,000 £65,400,000 3
2013/14 £42,500,000 £10,000,000 £32,500,000 4
2012/13 £52,300,000 £43,700,000 £8,600,000 4
2011/12 £53,225,000 £70,700,000 (£17,475,000) 3

Source: transferleague.co.uk

One does not need a statistical degree to observe the trend. Since the infamous summer of 2011/12, when both Messers Fabregas and Nasri decided to seek much greener pastures, Arsenal Football Club has rebounded from the nadir and is no longer a selling club. Except for 2015/16 it has been very active in the transfer market. In my opinion, the three most eye-catching years, apart from this year’s window, were 2013/14, 2014/15 and 2011/12. The first two are clearly significant for the acquisition of Mesut Ozil and Alexis Sanchez respectively but to me 2011/12 is most telling. Despite the sensational declarations by the commercial media and its faithful echo chamber in the blogsphere of the failure of Arsene’s “project youth”, despite the infamous trolley dash on deadline day of summer 2012 (to this day the signing of Park Chu-Young is used as a stick to ridicule the manager), despite declarations of the “end of an era”, despite the outpourings of doom and gloom, Arsenal came 3rd in the League surpassing media darlings like Spurs and Liverpool.

To me the summer of 2011/12 is the emblematic of how much the emotions of the public is a “contrarian” indicator. Exacerbated by the media, the collective doom and gloom by Arsenal fans especially after that 8-2 thrashing by Manchester United, with the Arsene barely having a decent XI to confront the exultant hordes at Old Trafford, was diametrically contrary to the reality that the club was still being led by its most successful and by far most consistent manager ever in its history.

All of the foregoing is again leading back to my initial point. Surely, if Arsenal is spending and, better yet, using its money to acquire quality players, how come the media and Arsenal blogs haven’t become more optimistic about our chances of winning the title this year. From what I have read and heard on podcasts a new narrative is taking shape. While it is recognized that £90 million have been spent on new players, good old inferiority complex is back at work. Now it is convenient to remember that Arsenal’s spending has been dwarfed by the likes of Manchester City and Manchester United, who themselves spent around £170 million and £150 million respectively, and even more significantly they have new managers with superior ability.

One Arsenal blogger, who will remain nameless as this quote is merely being used for illustrative purposes, concluded:

“but with superstar managers such as Pep Guardiola, Jose Mourinho and Antonio Conte taking up top jobs in England, along with the fact that Arsenal are already 5 points behind the early pace-setters, it is looking like as hard a season as any to finally bring home the league championship.”

In any serious analytical work, the baseline for any prediction must be the consistent performance of the variable under study. For example a professional who studies the lunar cycle will confidently predict with 99.9% certainty that while on August 31 we had a new moon with 1% visibility on August 31st, he/she can predict with 99.9% certainty that there will be a full moon on September 16th. Unlike the physical sciences, where the laws of nature have been well established and generally taken for granted for their predictive value, in the area of human behavior, football being one, the predictions by our pundits are worse than the weatherman and more akin to fortune tellers and palm readers.

Fortunately the statisticians have developed rigorous tools which enable us to make predictions with a certain level of confidence. I have a preference for the investment world where no true professional will invest in a stock without a minimum 95% probability of success. Anything less and he or she will eventually lose their capital (seemingly one or two of these losers strike gold, eventually become a useless tv-pundit). My previous blogs on Fear and Despair and Lucas Perez explains the contrarian indicators which a professional will bet against.In the case of Arsenal we have data from 20 years of Arsene Wenger’s management. In my view it should be divided into two eras, based on the significant differences in financial resources that were available. First was the Pre Emirates years, when going up against the wealth of Manchester United and the managerial nous of Alex Ferguson, Wenger except for the first and last year, never came less than 2nd, three times coming first including the immortal, unbeaten year. By 2005-06 the break-up of the Invincibles was well underway as the club reduced investments in big transfers to focus on paying for the new stadium.

Pre-Emirate Years

Year Wins GF GA GD PTS POS
96-97 19 62 32 30 68 3rd
97-98 23 68 33 35 78 1st
98-99 22 59 17 42 78 2nd
99-00 22 73 43 30 73 2nd
00-01 20 63 38 25 70 2nd
01-02 26 79 36 43 87 1st
02-03 23 85 42 43 78 2nd
03-04 26 73 26 47 90 1st
04-05 25 87 36 51 83 2nd
05-06 20 68 31 37 67 4th

Apart from the remarkable record of consistently top level outcomes, another of the many reasons to post the table is to demonstrate that to win the title Arsenal have had to achieve at least 26 wins and to score at least 73 goals per season, with one exception in either category. In 97/98 we won only 23 games but still claimed the league title and in 05/06 we had as many as 25 wins but came 2nd to Chelsea who, at the time, was the sole sugar daddy club able to fire £50 pound notes across the lawn of almost every top-flight club in Europe. Contrast the foregoing with the Emirate years to- date.

The Emirate Years

Year Wins GF GA GD PTS POS
06-07 19 63 35 28 68 4th
07-08 24 74 31 43 83 3rd
08-09 20 68 37 31 72 4th
09-10 23 83 41 42 75 3rd
10-11 19 72 43 29 68 4th
11-12 21 74 49 25 70 3rd
12-13 21 72 37 35 73 4th
13-14 24 68 41 27 79 4th
14-15 22 71 36 35 75 3rd
15-16 20 65 36 29 71 2nd

We all know that in the relatively barren years at the Emirates, title-wise,  Wenger has consistently kept the team in the top-4 but one key metric from the Highbury days, number of wins has fallen by an average of 9%, from 23 to 21. The data indicates that the number of goals scored was not a significant predictor of league success; an average of 71 goals per season in both eras. Not surprisingly, the data confirms that the closest we came to matching our Pre-Emirates success was the Eduardo year when we amassed 24 wins but could not hold onto our lead after tragedy struck the team. The data is suggesting we need 26 wins, six more than last year to be in with a shot.

How much of a big ask is that? Between 06-07 and 07-08, we had 5 more wins and earned 15 more points. If Perez has anything like the impact of Eduardo, I suggest we are in with a big shout regardless of Pep, Mourinho and Conte. If we are to go by the data, never bet against Wenger’s consistency.

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Lucas Perez: Another Eduardo-type signing!

Posted by shotta_gooner on August 29, 2016 in All Posts

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Disclaimer: Despite the headlines this blog is not your usual piece of  transfer bollocks. You have been warned.

Markets
It may be news to young football fans but the modern transfer market is barely 13 years old when the transfer window was first introduced to English football by FIFA in 2003/04. Yes, the concept of a football transfer existed in England for more than 100 years when the Football Association (FA) introduced player registration sometime after 1885. But for most of the intervening years there was really no “free” market for the services of a footballer. It is a historical fact that sometime after the Football League was formed in 1888, the owners decided that restrictions had to be placed on the ability of richer clubs to lure players from other clubs to prevent the league being dominated by a handful of clubs. From the start of the 1893–94 season onwards, once a player was registered with a Football League club, they could not be registered with any other club, even in subsequent seasons, without the permission of the club he was registered with.

The transfer system remained unchanged until the Bosman ruling in 1995. The case for ending Football League-type restrictions on player transfers was brought to court by Jean-Marc Bosman, a former Belgian footballer who in 1990 was registered with Belgian club RFC Liège. His contract had expired and he was looking to move to French team Dunkerque, but Dunkerque refused to pay the transfer fee of £500,000 that Liège were asking for. Bosman was left in limbo and his wages were cut by 75% due to him not playing. After a lengthy legal battle, he won his case when the European Court of Justice ruled that players should legally be free to move when their contract expired.

The point of the preceding historical overview is to remind my readers that the existence of a transfer market and the window is a very recent phenomenon with little in the way of repetitive historical data on which to establish some trading rules. Complicating things even further is the current transfer market does not function year-round. Trading is artificially restricted to the transfer window; i.e. two months in summer and one month in winter. No wonder there are such huge distortions in the demand and supply mechanism and ultimately in prices.

Despite the relative youth of the transfer market, it is important for us Arsenal fans and others to understand its driving forces to avoid being manipulated by the various market participants as well as to better understand the moves made by Arsene and the club. In my last blog I shared with you the role of Greed and Despair as the two primary emotional drivers in the stock market which are equally evident during the transfer window. I emphasized that in in both markets the full-time professionals will consistently exploit and profit from these emotions.

Why the stock market as a frame of reference? Because it is the oldest and biggest market place in the world where the public (individuals, speculators, investors, and institutions) compete to make money. Stock trading of some sort has been around since the middle of the 16th century. But the modern stock exchange was first officially formed in London in 1773, 19 years before the New York Stock Exchange which eventually became the pre-eminent stock market by the 19th century paralleling the rise of New York as the centre of world commerce and finance. Despite repetitive bubbles and crashes, malfeasance and scandals, stock markets continue to exist and grow in size. At the close of 2012, the size of the world stock market (total market capitalization) was about US$55 trillion. By country, the largest market was the United States (about 34%), followed by Japan (about 6%) and the United Kingdom (about 6%).

Irrational Behavior
Due to their long history as well as the money at stake, stock markets have been studied to death by academics and professionals aiming to identify trends and behaviours which are repetitive and predictable. One such repetitive feature that is absolutely comparable to the transfer market is the irrational behaviour by many of the participants. Many of you may recall in the late nineties the mantra of “irrational exuberance” by former U.S. Federal Reserve chairman, Alan Greenspan to describe the behaviour of investors running up stock prices during the dot.com bubble which eventually went splat.

It seems to me the very definition of irrational behaviour is Manchester United’s who sold Pogba to Juventus for £500k and four years later repurchased him for an eye watering £89.25m according to TransferMkt.com. As the highest valued transfer ever by United, it is reasonable to assume that during his five year contract he will be earning top wages at United, at least comparable with the £300k per week reportedly earned by Rooney. Added to this expensive acquisition are the transfers of Mkhitarayan (£35.7m) and Bailly (£32.3m) with wages to match. Ibrahimovic was acquire on a free but nobody doubts that he is earning top whack given his celebrity status worldwide.

Meanwhile their noisy neighbours City refuse to be outdone, splashing lavishly on Stones (£47.3m), Sane (£42.5m), Gabriel Jesus (£27.2m), Gündogan (£22.9m), Bravo (£15.3m), Nolito (£15.3m) and a few more in single digits. It is commonly known that City pay top-top wages in the league and apparently out of favour players like Yaya Toure, Samir Nasri and Eliaquim Mangala are difficult to move on because interested clubs cannot match their contractual compensation. This is a prime example of a club obligated to pay premium salaries of once big signings now surplus to requirements.

It is widely known that contrarians will constantly outperform the prevailing market sentiment during market extremes. In our case during the transfer window Arsene Wenger consistently exploits and profits from the irrational behavior of City, United, Chelsea, Liverpool, Spurs et al. This is despite thousands of mainstream media articles, blogs and tweets that Arsenal is being left behind. Arsene refuses to buy high and sell low. He waits until the opportunity develops to get superior value at relatively lower market prices than his competitors. Once the timing is right, usually towards the end of the window, he moves in for the kill (Cazorla, Alexis and now Lucas Perez come to mind).

Herzfeld and Drach (“H and D”) in High-Return, Low-Risk Investment explains that the reason for this irrational behaviour goes much deeper than people reacting to extremes (e.g. when Arsenal go on a bad run) or to the media brainwashing us to believe that transfers are the key to success (when there is ample evidence to the contrary). I will briefly touch on these underlying reasons in the hope that it may help us cope with the repetitive nonsense that prevails during the transfer window.

1. Psychological Gratification
People like to be liked. Being with the crowd is much easier psychologically than being against If everyone is doing the same thing, there is a feeling of camaraderie. (I experience this on Twitter everyday. If the big accounts are slagging Wenger for “dithering” in the transfer market then it is par for the course for the vast majority while those of us who decry the nonsense and point to Wenger’s consistent 20-year success in the window are treated as lepers). This bonding however reduces clear recognition of the risks inherent in the crowd’s behaviour, leading to major losses when crowds ignore reality. Crowd followers are lemmings. Buying and selling players in the transfer market is not a team sport; there are winners and losers with millions at stake.

2. Short-Term Illusion
When a dramatic price event occurs and becomes the centre of attention, seemingly logical reason to justify the price change accompany the sensationalism. The reasoning baits the trap. Usually a major price move has occurred before the sensationalism , the move itself created the sensationalism. The end result is monies are attracted (through supply/demand) to aggravate the price change. If the price move is up, the sensationalism will attract buyers (demand) and push prices higher. If the price move is down, the sensationalism will attract sellers (supply) and push prices lower. H and D note that anyone with experience with the investing public knows that those who get involved with after-the-fact sensationalism tend to repeat their behaviour even though they repeatedly lose (Man United I am looking at you).

Translate the above to the transfer market: The tendency at the beginning of the window is to push prices higher. The big monied teams like PSG, Barca, and Madrid usually storm out of the blocks in their greed to get the best asset on the market. The media and blogs sensationally justify the high prices as the going “market rate” with no reference to quality (e.g. see most of the recent blogs by the Sage of Dublin). There is the usual round of sensational media reports in England and from Europe justifying higher prices and United, City, Chelsea are lured in to pay hand-over-fist for less than top-top quality players. In a year or two many of these high priced transfers prove to be a bust. Meanwhile a measured long-term player like Arsenal will wait until the end of the window to pick up usually young, promising talent on the cheap at reasonable prices whom it can develop as world class players. Fabregas, Van Persie are examples and it is likely Bellerin and Gnabry will follow this route. Just as an aside, in my opinion, if Diaby did not suffer that horrific assault on his ankles in that last game of his first year he would have been a great-great player in the class of Fabregas and Van Persie.

3. Justified sensationalism
H and D note that automatically ignoring (or taking positions directly opposite) prevailing sensationalism can be a mistake. There are positions when the sensationalism is correct, the price movement is justified and the price direction is very likely to continue. Thus in 2007-2008 when the run on Lehman Brothers became apparent and Bear Sterns was being shut down and investors began to bail from firms holding dodgy mortgages and mortgage-backed securities. It would have been right to go with the flow. The important thing is to use common sense to differentiate between justified and unjustified sensationalism. The easiest example in the last ten years of unjustified sensationalism has been the yearly pre-season prognostications by the vast majority of pundits in the commercial media that Arsenal will fall out of the top-four because it failed to spend like its big rivals. They consistently fail to educate the public that Arsenal is a self-sustaining club that could never match United or the sugar-daddy clubs in spending, it would simply go bankrupt. Similarly they consistently under report the role of Arsene Wenger as a genius of a manager who despite lesser resources has consistently outperformed his big spending rivals.

Playing a Blinder
I am going to take the unusual role of saying the club has recognized an element of justifiable sensationalism among the fans this summer and responded by playing this transfer window brilliantly. They, I am sure, are keenly aware of the desire of the supporters to see the club actually compete for the title, knowing full well that finishing 10 points behind Leicester last year has left embers of discontent that can be easily become a conflagration in the hands of the usual pyromaniacs. The early acquisition of Xhaka and Holding as well as the bid for Vardy was a signal of serious intent. As Wenger said early in the window we need to score some more goals and defend even better. As I write the acquisition of Mustafi and Lucas Perez is all but finalized.

In my opinion Lucas could be the final piece of the puzzle; an experienced, aggressive, speedy forward who can score goals and assist. The last time Wenger brought such a predator was in 2007 with the acquisition of Eduardo from Shakhtar Donetsk who was then described as a “striker with lightning speed and a poacher’s instinct in front of goal.” Dudu only scored 12 goals from 22 starts in his first season at the Arsenal, eight of them in the PL, but he was starting to flourish amid the hustle and bustle of English football until Martin “Tiny” Taylor’s challenge left him with a broken leg and dislocated ankle. Up to that point in time, together with Adebayor leading the line, we were on a title-winning run, 5 points atop the table. If Lucas, in his first season, can in anyway duplicate Eduardo’s performances, he together with Walcott, Sanchez and Giroud being fed by Ozil and Xakha, could help us score the goals badly needed during the harsh winter months, when title challenges are made or broken. If he does, we could be in with a shout by the beginning of May.

In closing, I thought Arsene and Ivan would have executed their transfer strategy down to the wire. Instead our summer business is done and dusted by August 29th. Too bad for Sky, BT, ESPN and the BBC, the sensationalists. Leave it to our friend Mel to express my sentiments in his inimitable style:

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