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Wenger Will Be The Manager Indefinitely

consistency

Unlike my more erudite colleagues at PA, my role is to inform and explain the sometimes boring but always unbiased data that serve as predictors of the competitive future of our club.

Due to the longevity of our great manager, we have 20 years of data covering 760 Premier League games that allow us to identify certain long term trends which are repetitive and predictable. Unlike the mainstream media and most of our colleagues who blog, podcast or tweet we do not have to resort to cheap sensationalism to make our point. A review of two very important developments will illustrate my point.

Wenger20

The celebration of Wenger’s 20 years as manager of the club was marked by a massive orgy of hyperbole and bogus platitudes by the mainstream media that must have left the manager bemused. After all, less than six months ago the self-same media, led by serial phone-hacker Piers Morgan, were eagerly fanning the flames of discontent and provoking demonstrations by fans to drive Wenger Out.

I therefore feel great empathy for our own Pedantic George when he vented in the Comments section of the blog last Saturday:

“Seeing a shower of absolute bastards, currying favour on the back of Arsene’s 20th anniversary, is turning my stomach.”

Unfortunately there is nothing that either George, I, or you the reader can do that will change the behavior of these “bastards”. It is totally consistent with my “greed and despair” paradigm to which I frequently refer. (More details here.) They are simply “sensationalizing,” preying on emotions. Notice that every member of the commercial media in England and on this side of the pond (i.e. NBC which has the Premier league broadcast rights) is doing a special on Wenger proclaiming how great he is. It makes commercial sense. Arsenal fans in particular are drawn to it in droves and those eyeballs online mean money especially for those newspapers who are bleeding readership, because the public has increasingly lost faith in them thanks to their mendacity and bias.

Yet six weeks ago, in mid-August, I did a blog showing that in the collective wisdom of nearly 40 pundits from both ESPN and BBC, Arsenal under Arsene was predicted to come 3rd in the league, in direct contradiction to the historical data. It defies reason that most journalists, pundits or bloggers within weeks, sometimes days, of declaring Wenger no longer fit for purpose, write such voluminous paeans and odes of praise to his greatness.

Unlike the mainstream media and the majority of vacillating, wavering Arsenal bloggers, we have cold hard data to justify our firmly held conviction that Arsene is not only the greatest manager this club has ever had but he is set to continue indefinitely. A contract is already in his hands and I am sure the board will be anxious as kittens until he signs. Like the bankers who demanded he agree to remain as manager for five years after moving into the new stadium, we rely on past performance, not sentiment.

“Consistency, thou art a jewel” – Shakespeare

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What is undeniable, from the graphic above, is that under 20 years of Arsene’s management the club has recorded the joint second highest average points per season (74) among all clubs, despite being massively outspent by United, Chelsea and City and at times, Liverpool. Despite the over one billion pounds invested in Chelsea by Abramovich in the past 12 years, the gap between them and Arsenal is negligible. (Note the graphic is generous to City whose average is calculated over 16 years by excluding the four seasons they were in the 2nd and 3rd flight of English football.) Also observable is the considerable gulf between between the Gunners and its North London rivals, in the order of 20 points.  Of all his rivals Arsene is yet to overhaul or match Manchester United, a realistic prospect in the first ten years until the club decided to focus its resources on building a new and bigger stadium.This is a handy segue to doing what is now standard in my analyses which is measure Wenger’s consistency in the pre-Emirates versus the Post-Emirate years.

Pre-Emirates

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The graphic and figures are crystal clear. Even though Wenger did not have the capacity to make record transfers in the magnitude of Ferguson at United, he had sufficient resources and the managerial nous to be on average only three (3) points inferior to the biggest and most successful club in England (80 vs 77 points). Despite inferior finances Arsene/Arsenal was able to capture three EPL titles including the singular honor of an Invincible, two doubles including the Invincible year and four FA cups.  In contrast, Manchester City, without the financial resources of the Abu Dhabi group, had in the same ten-year span spent four years outside of the top flight generating a piddling season average of 23 points, less than one-third of Arsenal’s.

Post Emirates

post-avg-points

With the austerity brought on by the stadium move, as well as  Chelsea and City becoming the unprecedented beneficiaries of deep-pocketed sugar-daddies, Wenger was simply unable to compete in the transfer market. Nonetheless Arsenal remained consistently among the top-three clubs in points earned with the season average dropping by six (6) to 71 points. It is notable that despite the hundreds of millions spent by Chelsea, their season average is no better than Wenger’s 77 points during his first ten years. Similarly, a big spender like City, with ten years to get a run at a financially crippled Wenger, is still three (3) points behind in current season average. Liverpool, despite the constant churn of managers, players and owners remain in-situ. That is not a comforting statistic if the scousers ever hope to catch and surpass Arsenal.

Now that Arsene/Arsenal is able to consistently spend on top-top quality players as well as patiently develop those coming through the academy, only the rabid anti-Wenger WOBs and weak-willed fans who allow themselves to become victims of groundless doom-mongering by the media, would bet against Wenger at least regaining the ground lost over the past ten-years.  If he is as competitive as his brother Guy disclosed in that recent newspaper interview, Arsene will be dying to prove he has the same, if not more longevity, than his older sibling who retired at 70. How many of you, dear reader, are willing to put up a wager?

Unto Burnley

Despite the whingeing and whining in various quarters that Arsenal was not as fluent, not as free-scoring as in prior games vs Chelsea and Basel, the most important piece of data from the Burnley game is the winning streak continues. The club is now 5 wins without a loss. In contrast, the previous leader in this statistical category, Manchester City, saw their winning streak end last Sunday at 6 wins. What should hearten every Gooner is the comprehensive nature of City’s loss to Spurs, who missed a penalty by the way. Prior to this loss, the media and some Arsenal fans were noisily trumpeting Pep Guardiola as their genius manager who automatically made City  presumptive champions of the EPL, a full eight months before end of season.

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Legend: Crimson – MUFC, Yellow – AFC, Blue- CFC, Light Blue – MCFC, Red – LCFC

In my last blog I highlighted data showing that the key to Arsenal winning previous titles under Wenger was going on substantial winning streaks. The average winning sequence in those 3 championship years was 11 games, ranging from a low of 9 to a high of 13. The clear implication being that victorious Arsenal teams tend to be consistently dominant throughout a season. One may argue that the data set is too small to draw any conclusions but during the past 20 years the average longest winning streak by a PL winning club was 8 games. The maximum run was 13 games by Arsenal in 2001-02 versus a minimum of 4 games by Manchester United in 2010-11. See the graphic above.

The data in my opinion is crystal clear.

For us to confidently predict a title win, this Arsenal team must attain at least an 8 game sequence of wins. Maybe this is the streak or it will be attained later in the season.

As positively realistic fans, we will patiently wait on the data.

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It Was 1-0 To The Arsenal And That Is Never Wrong

Today’s article is from our very own Gf60

2nd-burnley-pic

Neither offside nor handball as clearly shown by this image, courtesy of Arsenal.com

Andy Nic chose a very good weekend to visit the D Day memorial in Normandy.

Even his cultured prose would have had problems with this game.  As Steww mentioned in his preview regarding fans’ superstition of travelling North of Watford after a Euro game: “The best we can hope for is to survive and nick the points…”.

By the way, where did all those virgins go Steww?

Superstition 1, Steww 0.

Having watched most of our ‘1-0 to the Arsenal’ games it is no lie to say that this was probably the closest finish we’ve experienced, with no time to even kick off after Kos’s winner… or was it Ox’s winner? Whatever it was, it must be termed our scrappiest goal of the season and Burnley supporters will argue that off-side and/or hand-ball should have been called.

Incorrect of course, it was 1-0 to the Arsenal and that is never wrong.

No changes to the side from the Basel game, bar Petr coming in for Oosp, but we definitely saw a change in tempo. Perhaps a return to planet Earth was due and the stygian gloom of the North-West would not have helped. For sure we seemed to be playing at half the pace seen during the previous eight days and it took us some fifteen minutes to acclimatize.

Even then, it was noticeable that our midfield was a bit heavy-legged, nobody doing much wrong but having nowhere near the control that we’d previously shown.  Fortunately our back line was working well and despite a couple of chances were holding Burnley at bay. The Koshodra partnership was very sound as was the covering for any defender caught upfield.  Petr made some good saves when needed, one particularly special in the second half.

Up front, Alexis was running around like the butcher’s dog but not getting the reward his energy deserved.

He’s such an unselfish player and had a few shooting possibilities that were laid off to others. Time to get the selfishness back Alexis? You did that on Wednesday as well trying to give Theo his hat-trick.

Theo’s good work in defence continued. He really has improved in that area. Pity that his shooting let him down, as was the case with Oz. Theo however was responsible for the header that led to our goal so he can be forgiven.

Oz just had an offish day.

Now for yet another interbloodynational break …

Let’s hope all the guys called on come back fit and ready to eat some roast swan.

Keep the faith.

124 Comments

Arsenal Versus Burnley: To the Virgins, to Make Much of Time

gather_ye_rosebuds_while_ye_may

Damn the coffee tastes good this morning. I had a long and wearying day yesterday, entirely missed any football related news and gossip and have woken to thin watery sunlight washing through chill autumnal air. Only one thought could kick me out of the womb like warm coddling of my memory foamed paradise; Turf Moor, sixteen thirty hours, and the return of our all conquering heroes.

There is a superstition among fans that travelling north of Watford on the weekend following a European midweek match is a tricky affair. The best we can hope for is to survive and nick the points and return home to prepare for the next game when, refreshed and rejuvenated, the boys can once again turn on the style. That mood has not so much lifted as evaporated this week.

Such is the atmosphere of joy and goodwill within the Arsenal family right now that everyone is licking their lips in anticipation, revelling in some sparkling performances and generally not coming down off their post Chelsea buzz. I’m a naturally cautious character. Having predicted a good day when Costa and co visited the Emirates I agonised over removing the offending paragraph. Terrified of hubris, of misplaced optimism, and (whisper it) being irrationally and unforgivably concerned at ‘jinxing’ the result it was a genuinely difficult decision to leave it in.

In the end the sense of gathering momentum, the hints of a joyous return to the wonders of Wengerball were so strong as to be irresistible and my inner editor waved the white flag and skulked off to sulk in the corner. Of course I didn’t ‘know’ we would trounce Chelsea and produce a performance of breathtaking superiority over Basel. I didn’t dare to even guess but I had to express the feeling, to try to articulate the warm spread of confidence that came not out of the blue but from the steadily growing assurance with which the team was playing. The signs were there against Watford, and they proved themselves true.

So now the point in hand. Can we continue the momentum against Burnley? Is this side on the verge of putting together an indomitable run or have we just witnessed a flash in the pan? A quick survey of the coffee grinds reveals nothing of note and certainly nothing pertinent to the football. Our opposition promises obdurate, methodical defence and a George Graham like miserliness whenever they take the lead. Arsène said, in one of his many interviews last week, that Sean Dyche has come up with a system for Premier League survival, honed over his four years in charge, and based around efficiency and organisation.

This suggests that we will need to be at our fast, inventive and free flowing best to bypass an obdurate midfield and well drilled defence. We have of course had plenty of experience of siege warfare over the years. Teams are alleged to have hit upon two ways to frustrate Arsène Wenger’s side; kick ’em up in the air, or pack the defence and hope for the long ball counter attacking goal. I have often seen people bemoaning the fact that we appear incapable of dealing with either tactic to which I have a one word response. Phooey.

If we were truly unsuccessful when faced with the tactical defence employed by ninety percent of our opponents then we would hardly be finishing in the top four year on year would we? While it can be frustrating to watch sometimes the team generally does get their reward. The exceptions which prove the rule of course stick in the craw and take on a distorted importance in much the same way as the single grain of sand renders the Vaseline less efficacious than one might otherwise wish.

Having said that it is a gruelling business wearing down a dogged defence and can delay the crucial breakthrough until very late in the game. I suspect that rather than going fishing and assuming all will be well on the day, the greatest coach in the Premier League spends many of his waking hours turning over solutions to the problem in that overstuffed Gallic noggin of his. I also believe we are seeing the fruits of those mental labours played out on the pitch.

A subtle shift in tactics enabled by being able to augment the squad with the right kind of players, by patiently allowing key personnel to return to form after long spells of injury and shifting others positionally have all combined to a new, dare I say more ruthless version of Wengerball. Fast direct running with simple combinations such as that which left Theo romping into the open spaces behind the Basel defence for his second goal. Lofted passes over the massed ranks exploited by lightning quick, intuitive footballers coming from all over the pitch whether nominally wide midfielders, fullbacks or strikers. All of this combined with the tried and trusted patient passing moves designed to keep possession, frustrate the opposition and draw them out from their lair has achieved a heady brew of irresistible football.

My pesky inner editor wants me to sound a note of caution now. This entire caffeine fuelled piece, he says, has a ring of triumphalism surely out of place in a preview of events yet to pass. Once again I squash his objections and counter with this. I’m not predicting an easy win, heck I’ve not even predicted a win. All I’m doing is revelling in a purple patch, enjoying the sun while it shines and gathering ye rosebuds, in time honoured fashion, while I may. I don’t predict nor expect the wonderful form of the last two games to continue for the rest of the season, that would be a fatuous exercise in trying your patience. However I do firmly believe that if we can’t be happy and enjoy the sport when our team is playing well and winning then really, we should question whether we ought to be following the game at all.

If you’re travelling to Lancashire today, wrap up warm and I trust you’ll be in good voice. If you haven’t heard from me by four o’clock, send someone round to give me a poke, it’s just possible the coffee may have worn off and yesterday’s exertions have caught up with me. I’d hate to be sleeping when the the next chapter in this fascinating football story unfolds.

 

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Arsenal: “Winning Beautiful”

0fb268de6d4d1cfce49f00e7b22f38f4Good morning Positives old and young,

There is a concept much bandied about by the punditti of “Winning Ugly” which, on most occasions as far as I can see, involves a team playing poorly, having a slice of luck, clinging on like grim death to fortune’s undeserved award and making off with the points.

Well last night I think our lads may have coined/created the new concept of “Winning Beautiful”. Let me elaborate. I have in mind Arsenal were playing football of the highest quality from the start of the match, dominating the opposition all over the pitch for 92 minutes, scoring two delightful and entirely deserved goals. There was no fouling, diving or cheating, and we earned an entirely justified reward. Every man of the 14 who played was a credit to the club, to the fans and to their old Mums. So Mr Shearer, Mr Murphy and Mr Lineker poke that up your collective pipe of inane jargon for future reference.

Of the game itself I had the advantage of not seeing it live and suffered no distractions from social media. Santi buzzed like a hornet and I doubt he has had a more influential game in the past three seasons. Hector showed an attacking, creative flair that makes me wonder whether a Philip Lahm style move forward into midfield might not be in his future ( if of course we did not have such a plethora of talent across our middle regions). Another defensive masterclass from Kosc and Mustafi, with it taking an hour for the Swiss to land a shot of goal, and even that was from outside the box. Credit to Ospina, called from his slumber just once but his sharp Colombian hand saved the one decent effort from the Toblerone toilers.

But you are waiting for me to come to the two men on whom our evening pivoted, nay I would say “pirouetted”. I think we now all know why Arsene decide to persevere with Alexis as a striker don’t we ? The system just about clicked perfectly into place last night, with balls wedged over the top of the Basel defence to the Chilean, not too hard, not too soft, just perfect. And when it did not go over the Basel defence, Sanchez dropped short and went through them. It has taken five/six games to really work as well as it did last night, and for Santi, Mesut, Theo and Alex Iwobi to find the right wavelength but the reception as clear as a bell last night.

And top of the class our reborn right winger, the man of the moment, who can’t stop banging then in Theo Walcott. He absolutely terrified the Swiss left back Traore from the first whistle. The visitors never found an answer to his running. What struck me is there was so much confidence in the player last night, a certainty that when he took on man he would pass him, or hit a shot it would be on target.

For our visitors Vaclik was outstanding and the reason a 2-0 win was not 5.

It would have been pleasant to see a score that reflected our dominance, and the one irritation of the evening was the number of presentable chances that were not converted. Sanchez hoofing the advertising hoarding in frustration on 89 minutes indicated that he was not satisfied. That may however be a feature of “Winning Beautiful” – less is more.

Highly competent referee – young chap, just 33 – Danny Makkelie – I bet we hear more of him.

So onward to Turf Moor on Sunday and no doubt a rousing, meat and potato pie throwing welcome from Lancashire’s finest. A little rotation in order you ask ? We shall see. One tinkers with such precision engineering very carefully.

Enjoy your week.

137 Comments

Arsenal Versus Basel: More Of The Same Please

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I tend to avoid giving the idiots among us too much oxygen, the great leveller that is social media already ensures their vapid discharge receives more than enough attention. One theme which has somehow made it into the office past my secretary is the idea that as Arsène paid a lot of money for his new signings he should bloody well play them. With all the self righteous anger of the entitled, these infantile hysterics who have spent years demanding new signings finally get them, and guess what? The so called expert in charge refuses to pick them.

Of course they neatly cherry pick their arguments to fit the pre conceived narrative and so fail to mention Shkodran Mustafi who has gone straight into the team and has pretty rapidly shown us why. They just cannot understand why Lucas Pérez and Granit Xhaka don’t start every game and why we sent Joel on loan and kept Theo.

Now before I go on let me just say, in parenthesis, we here at PA claim no expertise. Nada, nix, zilch. We, unlike the drooling hordes of mindless trend followers who so pollute the atmosphere of any modern debate, are happy, nay delighted to accept that Arsène Wenger and all of his staff know infinitely more about running every aspect of a football club than we do or ever will. The only things we express here are skewed, narrow, prejudicial opinions based on no more than our gut instincts. I have an idea, an uninformed guess as to why the manager hasn’t automatically thrown the new boys into the pot all at once and it is no more than that.

Given the injury situation I believe he had to play Mustafi straight away. It would have destabilised the team to have too many new faces all at once and would hardly have been effective man management to ditch established quality first team players just because he had some shiny new ones in his back pocket.But there is a much bigger point. Arsène didn’t buy these players because Arsenal was desperate. We didn’t finish way off the pace in seventh, eighth or ninth position in the league last year. We came second. We had an excellent group of players albeit a squad with a few gaps in it due to the retirement of our skipper and a couple of old hands moving on to a quiet semi retirement.

Unlike other clubs we didn’t need to buy saviours because we weren’t in dire straits. We bought players to augment an already successful, top class outfit. Man United in contradistinction flung an obscene amount of cash at one player because they needed a talisman, someone to ignite belief that they might just still be in with a shout of rejoining the big boys club. It’s a club they and Liverpool left some time ago and pretenders like Spurs are making serious efforts to join. Arsenal, needless to say, has been a member for ever single year of Arsène’s time in charge.

So no, the manager doesn’t need to throw all his new trains straight onto the Hornby OO gauge track. Neither does he need to take any chances with those coming back from injuries. He can smooth the transition to the Premier League for the new faces and he can ease the wounded back into the fray. He is, in short, building from a position of strength.

Similarly the cup team we fielded against Forest was noticeably stronger than in recent seasons. In fact our cup side and our league side may start to appear quite distinct from one another, with Ospina or Martinez starting in goal and perhaps Lucas up front, Elneny being first first choice in midfield. Then again we have the option to field differing strength cup teams depending upon the perceived strength of our opponents – the permutations are quite fascinating – not to say mouth watering.

Our opposition this evening, while, in theory, not as formidable as Paris St Germain, cannot be taken for granted whatever the make up of our first eleven. Let’s face it, no one in the Champion’s League intends to roll over no matter who they play and Basel have form when it comes to shattering the illusions of cocky Premier League clubs. Unbeaten this season and with a 100% record in the league they have featured in one or other of the European competitions every year since 1999. So they are experienced, in fine form and have no reason to fear any British team.

I mention all this to dispel any of the ridiculous foregone conclusion, gung-ho nonsense some of our fellow fans mistake for positivity and confidence. Saying we ought to murder them just so that you can then berate your own side if you fail to bury the opposition under an avalanche of goals isn’t positivity it is a symptom of an unbalanced mind.

I am positive about tonight. I believe we are in great form both individually and collectively. I believe also that we have players on the bench and occasionally not even in track suits who are extremely capable and desperate to prove their worth if given the opportunity. Whether any of them will get that chance tonight remains to be seen but nothing would surprise me. We have the classic potential banana skin on Sunday with a trip oop north on the weekend following a Champion’s League tie. Under these circumstances we need players to be fresh and sharp. Having said that the season is yet young, the players supremely fit, and they don’t have to travel half way around the globe this evening so an unchanged side, Coquelin and Ospina excepted cannot be discounted.

As I sip from the lucky mug and contemplate another night of European football it is a relief to know that in you I have someone to share the moment, someone who doesn’t believe they know more than the manager but above all someone who recognises what a phenomenal achievement it has been simply to be here yet again. A top four finish isn’t some kind of booby prize it’s the holy grail of every club in the Premier League and we are lucky enough to a follow a team managed by a man who has delivered  on this goal year after year after year.

If you’re at the match I trust you’ll be in good voice, if not I’ll see you here at 7.45. Ćao za sada.

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Arsenal: Is this Streak For Real?

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Post Chelsea, in his usual wise manner the manager observed there is only 24-hours to savor a victory, even over a historic rival, after which it is time to focus on the hard work of winning the next game. See interview at https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=fN7btWOQJ3g

In contrast with Arsene, now that Arsenal is on a 5 game unbeaten run of 4 wins and 1 draw, even seasoned Black Scarfists are trying to locate a seat on the bandwagon rapidly filling-up at various way stations.

Intuitively, as supporters we are happy with a winning streak. But Saturday’s victory have sparked the usual over exuberant headlines and tweets.

Bleacher report could hardly contain themselves:
Chelsea Have Become a Fugazi, and Being Humiliated by Arsenal Proves It

Our good colleagues at Suburban Gooners, like so many of us, crowed that:
Arsenal are getting their swagger back

Those of us, who are seasoned supporters of Arsenal Football Club and observers of the ebb and flow of emotion among fans, know that often this show of support is simply a desire to not to appear irrelevant while the team is winning. Once there is the inevitable setback, all teeth will be bared and the attack dogs will be let loose all over Wenger and the club in direct contradiction to the underlying trends.

So does a 5 game unbeaten streak suggest we are in anyway close to winning the title? As usual it is important to review the underlying historical data, never afraid to recognize that: “In the silent statistical world, there are no headlines. There are no narratives. No excuses. No hope and no despair. Just data.”

As in the stock market, when there is an increase in the share price of a company there are usually thousands of punters piling-in further bidding up the prices in the hope the market will soar upward infinitely, a similar pattern is observed when a football team is on a good run. Such is the reaction of our fickle, celebrity fans like Piers.This piling-in, in the words of my mentors, is often a case of “unjustifiable” sensationalism based on irrational expectations.

To counter such irrational emotions, my task is to research the historical data to help reveal where exactly Arsenal is positioned. Hopefully you my readers will draw the appropriate conclusions. Fortunately for us http://www.statto.com maintains several years of data on “Season Longest Win Streak” in the PL which we can apply to AFC. As usual I divide the data between the Highbury and Emirates eras.

Highbury Years

W D L CS FtS Lge Pos
1996-97 4 2 2 5 2 3
1997-98 10 2 2 8 3 1
1998-99 5 4 1 6 3 2
1999-00 8 1 2 2 1 2
2000-01 5 2 2 4 3 2
2001-02 13 2 1 4 0 1
2002-03 5 2 2 3 1 2
2003-04 9 3 0 2 1 1
2004-05 5 2 1 4 1 2
2005-06 4 2 3 5 3 4
Min 4 1 0 2 0
Max 13 4 3 8 3
Mean 7 2 2 4 2

In their pomp at at Highbury, during Arsene’s winning years, the club would go on some statistically significant winning streaks, i.e. they were substantially above the mean averages in Wins (W). The 2001-02 season, in particular, Arsenal went on a rampage of 13 Wins out of 16 games which was marred by only 2 draws and 1 loss. By doing so they clearly separated the men from the boys.

During that era it is evident that Draws (D), Losses (L), Clean Sheets (CS) and Failed to Score (FtS) data did not seem to have any statistical significance in winning the title so long as they were kept on or around the mean average. Even the 2003-04 season, which was important for serving up zero (0) losses all season, during our best 12-game stretch Arsenal could only maintain two (2) Clean Sheets.  Remember that fact when this season you read or hear pundits, bloggers and podcasters panicking when opponents occasionally breach Arsenal’s defense and score a goal. While it is important to keep clean sheets, the championship years demonstrated it is more critical to be on the front-foot and amass those Wins. Worrying about Clean Sheets is just another case of “unjustified” sensationalism which helps to induce fear among Arsenal fans.

Compare and contrast Highbury with the barren championship years at the Emirates.

Emirate Years
W D L CS FtS Lge Pos
2006-07 5 2 3 2 2 4
2007-08 7 4 1 2 1 3
2008-09 5 5 2 4 4 4
2009-10 6 1 2 2 2 3
2010-11 3 3 2 4 1 4
2011-12 7 3 3 2 2 3
2012-13 4 2 2 3 2 4
2013-14 5 2 1 4 1 4
2014-15 8 3 2 3 1 3
2015-16 5 2 2 3 3 2
Min 3 1 1 2 1
Max 8 5 3 4 4
Mean 6 3 2 3 2

Not surprisingly the various metrics for longest winning streak are inferior to the Highbury years. Interestingly, in those years when the club exceeded the 10-year average of 6-Wins in a streak, i.e. in 2007-08 and 2014-15, they were good value for coming 3rd.  In contrast, even though Arsenal came 2nd last season, it is clear and apparent why this generated very little excitement among many fans; in its best winning streak the club could only amass a below average 5 Wins in comparison to a 10-year average of 6-Ws.

The biggest takeaway from the data of the last 10 years at the Emirates has been the Club’s inability to achieve an above-average run of Wins, of similar magnitude to  10, 13 and 9 which characterized the title-winning years of 1997-98, 2001-02 and 2003-04 respectively. Until the current squad can reach those heights, unlike the opportunistic Mr. Morgan, we at Positively Arsenal should curb the over-exuberance and keep the champagne on ice.

80 Comments

Arsenal: The Trinity Of Excellence

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Dila mshvidobisa Positivistas,

What a fine morning to be alive as an Arsenal supporter.

The milestone of Arsene’s 20th anniversary at the helm of our football club celebrated in glorious and emphatic fashion. An opponent club who have stood, and arguably still stand, for much of what is rotten in modern football flattened. The evening lit up by what is good in football, art, athletic excellence, intelligence, concentration, the unity of purpose of players working as one body, one mind.

Of the details of yesterday’s game against Chelsea? As I invariably say, you all saw it, but bear with me.

Three aspects of Arsenal stood out for me and each of which I think led to our overwhelming victory. First and foremost, an exceptionally disciplined defensive performance by our back five, aided by first Le Coq then Granit, in which no player lapsed. No one, literally no one, put a foot wrong until the 83rd minute when Batshuayai managed to nick the ball and break on goal, and Petr made his first save of the afternoon. 83 minutes! We tackled cleanly, we headed decisively, we cleared without hesitation, we ignored the Costasaurus and his increasingly absurd antics.

Many times have I, have WE indeed, seen a bright Arsenal performance undone by a silly defensive error, a half second of irresolution or a misdirected clearance. Against CFC, I hesitate to say, we have had a tendency more often than probably any other club over the past few years. Well not last night, not once, not one sniff of weakness. Entirely professional, not one petulant retaliation or response to provocation, we were faultless. That was an exceptional defensive base to build from.

And build we did. Second up two individual performances that stood out from Mesut and from Theo. The former has been ‘quiet’ since the start of this season, good of course but not quite the decisive game-changer week in and week out that we became used to. He roared back yesterday against a team that, in previous contests, he has found it difficult to get into the game against. He oozed class, he bamboozled, Ozil gave them the ‘eyes’, and they fell for them.  My second individual award to Theo who played what was his best ever game last night. As an attacking player he tore holes in the visitors all night and was unfortunate not to have more than one goal to his name. At least as impressive when we did not have the ball TW was constantly busy, chasing, denying space, putting in tackles and working seamlessly with Hector.

The third block on which the victory was built was the strength of our bench and the timing and the quality of our replacements. Returning to point one, if we have suffered self-inflicted defensive errors our efforts in so many games have also been undone by a sudden injury and the exit from the field of a key (midfield) player. Often an exact replacement has not been available, the disruption has killed our positive momentum in the game and, in the end, it has cost us. Xhaka for Le Coq caused barely a ripple. Straight off the bench and down to work. A tough, tackling midfielder for a tough, tackling midfielder. Like a clock mechanism, old spring out, new spring in. If the change of Xhaka was enforced then the introduction of Gibbs and the stability that brought to the left hand side was freely chosen and beautifully timed. Iwobi was tiring, Nacho had had a hard afternoon against Willian. Whatever Chels might have made of opportunities down that side was snuffed out, and to his credit Kieran not only assisted with defensive duties but put in a couple of creative touches that nearly added a fourth. And young Kieran is another man who has found previous games against Chelsea ‘problematic’. Goodness me Arsene got his choice of sub and the timing right.

As you can tell the seam of superlative descriptors has been heavily mined over the past hour, or should that be descriptive superlatives – and why not?

We stride purposefully into the 21st year of the reign of Mr Wenger at the club. Let our pace be assured, and our heads held high. There are great days ahead.

Enjoy Sunday.

 

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Arsenal Versus Chelsea : Mentioning No Names

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I was hoping to get through this morning’s epistle without mention of Chelsea’s erstwhile manager. Not the interim incumbent, I don’t mean him, I mean the one in charge when they started their title defence last season. I told myself that he is no longer there and is therefore no longer relevant and is the subject of so much journalistic and blogging hot air that it doesn’t need me to blow any more up his skirt.

There is a problem though. I simply can’t decide if Chelsea with him means the same as it does without him. In terms of rivalry it is of course a London derby between two of the capital’s biggest teams and as such will always carry more weight than a more humdrum fixture. Even without the Graceless One in the dugout or prowling the touchline there are still players likely to pull on the blue jersey for whom we can feel no love. There is one in particular who has built a reputation for scoring goals when many observers wonder how he is still on the pitch to score them such is his otherworldly ingenuity for unpunished foul play.

Despite the presence of such malevolent incarnations of footballing villainy the fixture has, for me, lost a little of its sting. I never hated Chelsea for being another London club. Neither living in nor hailing from the Big Smoke I shan’t add that hypocrisy to my list of faults. I disliked them for their association with the sudden jarring influx of unearned dirty money which so distorted the competitiveness of the league. I disliked many of their players in that pantomime way we fans have of caricaturing certain footballers from other teams. But mainly I didn’t like that oafish, pestilential sore of a man who so utterly epitomises all that is abhorrent in the modern game.

And now he’s gone. From Stamford Bridge at least. And with him a whiff of corruption has been lifted from today’s opponents. I don’t know a great deal about signore Conte except what I saw on the touchline at the recent European championships. His CV is pretty impressive though and we’d all do well to be wary of any side he manages, especially one which, along with the notable scoundrels, contains some extremely talented footballers.

They’ve started in a remarkably similar vein to us this season. Losing to Liverpool, picking up one away draw and winning the rest. Apart from beating Burnley by three their victories and defeat have been decided by the odd goal. What little we can deduce from these early season stats suggests they aren’t scoring by the bucket load but neither are they leaking many at the other end. A gambling man might think a draw the likely result.

I’m not a gambler. I have an inelegant sufficiency of other vices thank you very much, but were I to fancy a flutter I must confess to a certain bullish premonition on this fine autumnal morning. I think we’re due a bit of an upturn in our fortunes against Fulham’s finest. There is something about Arsenal this season which might give other sides pause for thought. A certain irascible refusal to bow to injurious destiny even in the face of such shockingly adverse circumstances as going a goal behind in the first minute in Paris.

Call it the silly superstitions of a foolish old man but I have a good feeling about Arsenal right now, a feeling which extends beyond the usual wishful thinking. The last time I had this positive tingle we went on to win the FA Cup so who knows? Of course come seven thirty this evening my upbeat mood may have taken a dent, sport is anything but an exact science, but win lose or draw today I can’t help thinking this squad has all the necessary elements to achieve something special.

The potential return of our Gallic heartthrob up front will give Arsène the kind of selection headache managers are reputed to enjoy, but we are in such a position of strength right now that he could easily decide to leave his number one striker on the bench rather than risk him from the start. Alexis has shown he is more than capable of playing up front. As the team adjusts to the more fluid style of a central striker who drifts around the line, he looks like an increasingly lethal option. Theo especially dovetails well with him, coming in off the wing when our Chilean dynamo leaves space in the middle. The other option, now his dreaded first goal is out of the way, is our new signing. Alexis, Pérez, Walcott would be a scarily fast front three, if a little on the diminutive side.

Of course which striker we choose won’t matter a hoot if Granit Xhaka gets a game. Just give him the ball anywhere on the pitch and if you’re stood in front of him for goodness sake duck. Should he start though? To my mind Santi hasn’t done anything to get himself dropped but with a European game on the horizon and with his understudy in compelling, goal scoring form maybe he gets a rest today. Maybe not. Whoever starts I’m happy to trust the judgement of those with the plan. As we say every week, second guessing the boss is a mugs game so let’s be content to wait and see.

Andy Nic’s friend with the whistle needs to have a good game today. The result may be unpredictable but what we can know for certain is one Chelsea player will be trying to get someone sent off from the moment the first ball is kicked. It is the kind of childish, odious approach to the game which deserves a disrepute charge, but no matter how unjust and no matter how righteous their cause our players simply cannot afford to react to his sly, niggling provocation. The rules of the game do not allow for self imposed justice, we have no choice but to hope that for once the officials are actually equal to the task and can prevent him from ruining what ought to be an excellent sporting contest.

Right, that’s enough from me, I have hash browns to prepare. If you’re at the game today I hope you’re in good voice, if not I’ll see you here at five thirty. Salut!

 

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Arsenal: Positive Intent on the Trent

Good Morning Positive Arsenal,

And how are each of you this fine Wednesday morning ?

Quite chipper I’d guess !

I suspect a lot of you, endured the fluctuations of technology while watching last night’s game, with streams coming and going, and providing a timely reminder of what reliable and comprehensive football coverage provides us. We may despise those damned TV corporations, bloodsuckers, leeches etc, but if that is the alternative their business model is safe for the foreseeable future.

Having dealt with that broadcasting foible a thoroughly enjoyable game took place. Our line up provoked a predictable mix of enthusiasm tinged with caution, with the mix of new faces, old’ish hands and promotions from the youngsters, and even in those promotions the position of Maitland-Niles at right back was a surprise to me. Perhaps the boldest initiative was the bench, with six teenagers in situ. As George said last night with a bench like that the Arsenal game plan is “shit or bust”.

Of the game itself and how these Wengerian schemes might work, or not perhaps? To quote Brian Clough “We talk about it for 20 minutes and then we decide I was right” and so Wenger’s selections and team set up proved that managerial aphorism almost perfectly, with Granit thumping in the first goal just 3 minutes shy of Old Big Head’s proposed schedule. Stand off the player 30 yards out and you will be punished. Did no one at Forest watch the Hull game ?

It is so, so important if you have a mix of young and experienced players that that first goal. After it went in we relaxed and every player had a little more confidence on the ball. Equally after a decent start Forest deflated after going a goal behind, the crowd noise sagged, the night for the home side slowly began to unravel. Very much a contrast to events at Hillsborough in our previous League Cup game.

Having gone ahead Forest kept up their end until half time, with a number of agricultural challenges that on another night might have led to greater official retribution. Martinez was never really troubled once week ahead. NF had one genuinely good player in Pereira, I thought. The rest were worker bees, willing but limited.

As a result, and as you saw, in the second 45 we strolled through the game. I was pleased to see Perez assert himself with a good aggressive goal. It is a long time since I have seen a centre back bullied off the ball like that. I thought his penalty was good as well. Almost like he practiced putting it beyond the keeper and into the corner !

Goal four for the Ox rounded off the evening, good for him and a boost to his still fragile confidence. His passing in the first half was, to put it bluntly, on occasions “wild”. A deep breath required young man.

All round a thoroughly competent performance. Young players all gained valuable experience, Elneny and Xhaka proving a cameo of an alternative high quality midfield pairing, Perez showed he is more than happy to “do it” on a Tuesday night in Nottingham. And NO injuries. Now that is a bonus.

Given it was the 12th anniversary of the death of Mr Clough I thought I would close with a second quote from that gentleman, made on the day the Invincibles passed the Forest unbeaten League record;

“I’m loath to confess they could be as good as us. They are brilliant. It sticks in the craw a little bit because nobody likes Arsenal! Of course there’s a Frenchman in charge, Wenger, and not many English people like Frenchmen. He is a top, top manager”

Enjoy the midweek. We have work on Saturday to look forward to.

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Arsenal Versus Forest: Keeping The Plates Spinning

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I’ve just discovered what EFL actually stands for. I’d long since given up paying too much attention to all the names by which the League Cup has styled itself. I never warmed to the Milk Cup, Littlewoods Cup nor the Rumbelows Cup, and by the time Coca-Cola got on board I’d had it with the corporate name changes and just stuck the the good old fashioned League Cup. So when I first saw EFL I assumed it was probably some multi national energy conglomerate or Chinese baby food manufacturer and, like a man at a buffet table who reaches a tray of undercooked and rapidly cooling eggs, I moved swiftly on.

You may readily imagine my surprise on discovering that, far from the Ezhou First-foods Laboratories or Energie Für Leben corporation, EFL simply stands for English Football League. Why then, given this simple return to a football based name, could they not have simply called the bloody thing the League Cup? Makes you wonder doesn’t it?

This is a competition which has always ruffled the feathers. Born a only couple of years before I was it was conceived as a consolation prize for those knocked out of the FA Cup. As such it has always been a poor relation to its illustrious forebear and occupied a similar place in the football hierarchy as the Europa League does today. Worth winning yes, but very much the silver medal contest. In fact clubs often disdained even to take part, until compelled to in the 1971-72 season. The ‘big’ clubs, an amorphous description if ever there was one, only really sat up and took any notice of it when the final moved to Wembley and the winners were guaranteed a place in European competition.

So when anyone suggests that Arsenal are disrespecting a venerable competition by fielding a second or even third string team you may blow a long, wet and noisome raspberry at them. When launched back in the early sixties the average attendance at League Cup games was about that of a third division match. I don’t actually believe that Arsène disrespects any competition. In fact I’m not entirely sure an imaginary construct such as a football tournament can be disrespected. It can’t exactly take offence can it? In any event our manager is competitive by nature, prizing winners above all other sportsmen and would want to win every match, every competition in which his side takes part.

I enjoy the League Cup enormously. There is slightly less pressure around it and given the presence of fringe players and ebullient youth we have been treated to many exciting matches during Arsène’s reign. I always want us to make it to the final if for no other reason than to see the likes of Jeff, Noddy Holding, Chuba and Ospina get a good run of games. Also it is the perfect opportunity to settle new faces into the first team away from the intensity of the Premier League.

Tonight we travel to the City Ground Nottingham where we’ll face, among others, one of our old League Cup alumni, Henri Lansbury. Lansbury’s most famous moment came when he scored against the Tiny Totts in the 2010 iteration of the competition and I confess to thinking that surely here was a future star of the Arsenal first team. His, and the experience of many others before and since, is not merely a salutary warning to those of us who think we can see into a young player’s future. It also serves as a timely reminder as to just how breathtakingly good the likes of Hector and Alex Iwobi are to make it through from the youth teams to the first.

Raw talent is not enough. Scoring against frail and second rate opposition like Spurs in a third rate tournament is not enough. The blend of composure, skill, strength and whatever the magic X factor is which only Arsène can see are so rare that it is incredibly difficult to correctly predict which of the youngsters will go on to make the grade. Given our increased muscle in the transfer market, the gap through which they must squeeze has now become even more narrow.

So my advice is to enjoy watching the kids that manage to make it into the League Cup side and don’t bother looking too much farther ahead. This may be the only night or the only season they get to shine for us and so we should take their performances at face value and not project too much of a future for them. Of course, given the depth of our squad and the quality of players who cannot even be guaranteed a place on the subs bench these days there may not be too many fresh faces in the first eleven anyway.

What of our opponents tonight? Managed by Philippe Montanier, after eight Championship matches they suffer the indignity of sitting below the second best team in Bristol. They are, on their day, a free scoring side who have racked up eleven goals in the three league games they’ve won this season. They won both of their previous League Cup matches away from home and, despite setbacks at Brighton and Brentford, should not be underestimated.

Montanier has come under some criticism for his policy of rotation having used more players than any other Championship manager so far this season. While I accept that a settled first eleven which can build real and deep understandings all over the pitch is as important an element in a winning team as any other, I believe that in the modern game learning to manage and employ a big squad is a vital skill. With playing staff pushed to the absolute peak of fitness injuries seem almost inevitable. With so many matches being played and at such a ferocious pace players have to be rested in order to maximise their potential. It’s a balancing act and keeping all those plates spinning is the lot of the modern manager.

Apart from Henri Lansbury another familiar name on the Forest books is Armand Traore. Still only twenty six, Traore was another League Cup player from our academy who never quite bridged the gap to the top level. Oh and there is one other you may remember. Six feet four inches tall, twenty eight years old,  former star of both Tårnby Boldklub and Kjøbenhavns Boldklub, Danish international, top knot wearing, tattooed, hat-trick scoring star of one of our greatest ever League Cup triumphs, the five nil drubbing of Leyton Orient. I speak of none other than Lord Bendtner of Copenhagen.

Love him or really love him, I will always remember with great fondness his winner against Spurs after coming on as a substitute way back in 2007. He high fived Emmanuel Eboué, trotted into the penalty area and scored with a Roy Of The Rovers header. Timed at 1.8 seconds (the clock only started ticking when the corner was taken) it remains the fastest ever goal from a substitute.

Well, that’s enough from me. Enjoy the fun and games if you can, I’m not sure who if anyone is screening the match. I have a band practice tonight so will be going dark until the highlights are posted online. Ciao for now Positivistas.