
Fresh after the Gunners win over Southampton last week, my roving eyes caught a blog that made we weep for everything that is Arsenal. Rather than using his blog to provide his readers with an insight into what Arsene is trying to achieve, the blogger used his headline and more than half of his subsequent prose to praise the manager of a rival team, writing giddy odes to his tactical brilliance.
“Pep Guardiola did something that I have always wanted Arsene Wenger to do: he bested Mourinho tactically.”
“And then I watched Arsenal. Maybe I shouldn’t watch Arsenal after watching a tactical masterclass like the one that Guardiola puts on.”
What would drive someone to crown Pep as king after a mere 4 weeks in the most ruthlessly competitive league in the world? Arsene Wenger went 16 years toe-to-toe with the most successful ever British coach, Alex Ferguson, the manager of the flag-bearer of English football, fought him to a draw in his 1st nine years. At the time Wenger had the players to compete and only fell behind when the club had to forego spending on the squad to focus on paying for the club’s new stadium.
During Arsene’s barren years Pep was given the chance to succeed with one of the members of the duopoly in Spain and thereafter had a similar gig at Bayern who are the colossus in German football. Fair play to the Spaniard for his brilliant success at both clubs but he and his sycophants will be badly mistaken if they think he will have a similarly easy ride in the PL where clubs like United and Chelsea can match his spending as well as acquire managers with comparable acumen. Not the least in the competitive landscape is Arsene and Arsenal who have closed the gap in financial resources and have 20 years of consistent success in the PL despite failing to win the PL since 2004.
But our blogger above and his cohorts, according to our “greed and despair” model (see Fear and Despair vs The Arsenal), find it easier to prey on their readers by sensationalizing Arsenal’s slow start to make predictions of doom and gloom. Underlying the doom-mongering is their wistful desire that Arsene may be somehow eased out of his position. Not surprisingly the data tells a completely different story. (By the way 20 years of Wenger has provide us with a richness in numbers that is unparalleled among current EPL managers; 760 matches in one league across different eras and circumstances. When he retires my role on this blog will be redundant.)
I reviewed the 20 year history of Wenger’s teams to compare 1st Half of season performance vs 2nd Half. The summary statistic below is quite benign. It suggests under Wenger we have consistently averaged 74 points over a season with a relative evenness between 1st Half and 2nd Half . The data suggests there is no statistical difference in either points or league position.
| Year |
1st Half – Pts |
1st Half – Pos |
2nd Half – Pts |
Final – Pos |
Diff in Pts |
Diff in Pos |
| 20 yr Mean |
37 |
3 |
37 |
3 |
0 |
0 |
However, as you my regular readers are aware, the Wenger years must best be divided into two eras; Highbury vs Emirates, i.e. years with money to spend vs years without.
Highbury Years
| Year |
1st Half – Pts |
1st Half – Pos |
2nd Half – Pts |
Final – Pos |
Diff in Pts |
Diff in Pos |
| 1996-97 |
36 |
2 |
32 |
3 |
-4 |
-1 |
| 1997-98 |
33 |
6 |
40 |
2 |
7 |
4 |
| 1998-99 |
32 |
5 |
46 |
1 |
14 |
4 |
| 1999-00 |
36 |
4 |
34 |
2 |
-2 |
2 |
| 2000-01 |
35 |
2 |
35 |
2 |
0 |
0 |
| 2001-02 |
36 |
2 |
51 |
1 |
15 |
1 |
| 2002-03 |
39 |
1 |
39 |
2 |
0 |
-1 |
| 2003-04 |
45 |
2 |
45 |
1 |
0 |
1 |
| 2004-05 |
41 |
2 |
42 |
2 |
1 |
0 |
| 2005-06 |
33 |
6 |
34 |
4 |
1 |
2 |
| Mean Avg |
37 |
3 |
40 |
2 |
3 |
1 |
Viola! In the years with money to spend Arsenal was not only a very competitive team, averaging 2nd place in the league, but most importantly we were a “2nd Half of the season team”. The club tended to become better as the season rolled on, showing over ten years an average three (3) point superiority in the second half. But what is most striking, in two of those three years when AFC came 1st, 1998-99 and 2001-02, the club battered its opponents in the 2nd half of the season, increasing its points haul by 14 and 15 points respectively. There were only two out of those ten years that AFC had lesser points in the 2nd half of the season. Eight out of ten years the club either maintained consistency or kept improving.
So there is a clear historical pattern by Wenger, when he had money, for his teams to generally improve as the season wears on. Yet we have a blogger who claims to “discuss Arsenal in a rational and calm manner” choosing to make Pep’s battering of a rival manager, who was then losing his 12th game in 30, the occasion to slaughter the boss of his own club and to opine that his club is not worth watching. Isn’t this the definition of “irrational behavior” as I discussed in my previous blog Lucas Perez: Another Eduardo-type signing!
So what of the later era? What does the data tell?
Emirates Years
| Year |
1st Half – Pts |
1st Half – Pos |
2nd Half – Pts |
Final – Pos |
Diff in Pts |
Diff in Pos |
| 2006-07 |
33 |
4 |
35 |
4 |
2 |
0 |
| 2007-08 |
44 |
2 |
39 |
3 |
-5 |
-1 |
| 2008-09 |
23 |
3 |
32 |
4 |
9 |
-1 |
| 2009-10 |
41 |
3 |
27 |
4 |
-14 |
-1 |
| 2010-11 |
36 |
3 |
32 |
4 |
-4 |
-1 |
| 2011-12 |
36 |
4 |
34 |
3 |
-2 |
1 |
| 2012-13 |
33 |
5 |
40 |
4 |
7 |
1 |
| 2013-14 |
42 |
1 |
37 |
4 |
-5 |
-3 |
| 2014-15 |
42 |
1 |
33 |
3 |
-9 |
-2 |
| 2015-16 |
39 |
1 |
32 |
2 |
-7 |
-1 |
| Mean Avg |
37 |
3 |
34 |
4 |
-3 |
-1 |
Obviously a clear and sharp drop-off compared to the Highbury era. Not only has the average total points fallen from 77 to 71 but there has been a constant decline between the 1st and 2nd Half of the season, from 37 to 34 points. Seven out of the ten years AFC’s points accrual went backwards, as much as 14 points in 2009-10. In contrast to Highbury, instead of our league position improving from 1st Half to 2nd Half, seven out of ten times it deteriorated.
Now there is a statistical glimmer of light in this data for Arsenal fans. Over the past ten years the average difference in league position between the 1st and 2nd Half of the season was a -1, with only two of the ten years showing a negative swing of two positions or more. As is well known, in the heat of competition Wenger and his teams have made every effort to qualify for the champion’s league. Furthermore the data demonstrates, without need for headlines, that over the past three successive seasons AFC has consistently improved its final league position despite a relatively large negative swing in points between 1st and 2nd Half of these seasons, ranging from -5 to -9.
Clearly if the club can reduce the negative swing of the past ten years and even resume the Highbury pattern of dominating in the 2nd Half of the season, then Pep or no-Pep Arsenal should be contending for the title.
As I previously tried to make the point in my prior blog Now Mr. Wenger Is The Inferior Manager, no professional investor would bet against Wenger’s consistency. To the contrary they would take advantage of the annual emotionally-driven, doom-mongering predictions that Arsenal will finish outside the top-four and take a position against the plebs. I am sure the book-makers play that game as well, posting odds that will induce many punters to bet against the Arsenal. No doubt they have been laughing all the way to the bank.
Now that Manchester United is imploding under Mourinho’s ineptitude and offensive cowardice, despite showing “ambition” and spending £150 million “early” in the transfer window, who is still willing to go all-in with Pep after 5-games into this new season?
No doubt many of you are familiar with that Jamaican cult classic movie and the theme song by Jimmy Cliff; “The Harder They Come, The Harder They Fall.”
Data source: http://www.statto.com