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Wanted: More Streakers At Arsenal

london-zoo-streakers

By now readers are familiar with my research on the importance of winning streaks as a predictor of Arsenal winning the league (read my first and second blog on the subject).  So after last weekend the streak now stands at 6-wins and the league table now reads:

Position 2nd
Games played 8
Wins 6
Loss 1
Draws 1
Points 19
Points Per Game 2.38

So  despite the hysteria and portents of doom by the emotionally driven majority in the fanbase, after a slow start the club has rapidly made up ground on a now stumbling Manchester City and is only second place in the league by dint of goal difference.

Historically Arsenal have won the title by streaking; 13 games in 2001/02, 10 games in 1997/98 and 9 games in 2003/04. Should the current winning streak continue, I concluded it would be a massive indicator of a serious title challenge. Currently the data is not conclusive and I would urge fans to not pop any champagne bottles, at least not just yet.

Why my caution? Because history shows, since last winning a title in 2003/04, the club has had a habit of starting very well and fading down the homestretch.  This is evident in the data for Points Per Games (ppg) mid-season and full-season:

Mid Season Full Season
2004-05 2.16 2.18
2005-06 1.74 1.76
2006-07 2.06 2.04
2007-08 2.35 2.18
2008-09 1.75 1.89
2009-10 2.16 1.97
2010-11 1.89 1.79
2011-12 1.89 1.84
2012-13 1.74 1.92
2013-14 2.21 2.08
2014-15 1.74 1.97
2015-16 2.05 1.87
Average 1.98 1.96

In raw numbers it may seem to be a mere 2 basis points difference but proportionately it is a 10% negative swing. Mathematically that is significant reversal; from an average of 38 points in the first half of the season to 36 points in the second, gives a season average total of 74 points. Over the same period the winning team in the EPL averaged 2.30 ppg or a season total of 87 points, a whopping 13 point superiority over Arsenal.

Despite years of wilful misinformation by the mainstream media and so-called Arsenal bloggers, in their desire to have Arsene Wenger sacked, the primary reason why the club faded over the stretch was not having sufficient resources to build a squad of with the requisite quality and depth, given the priority of having to pay for a new stadium. I have spent several blogs doing the pre-Emirates vs post-Emirates comparison to show Wenger was both a genius for winning titles at Highbury as well keeping Arsenal competitive post-Emirates despite being massively outspent by his main rivals. The data is unchallenged and bears no repeating.

But despite the spending handicap over the past 12 years, the club has occasionally out-competed the entire league at the start of season; sitting at the top midway but eventually fading. However final league position has progressively improved over the last three years, from 4th in 12/13 to 2nd in 15/16.  The graph below illustrates.

midway-vs-full

Average Points Per Game (PPG)

But the number I found to be significant, streak or no-streak, is the average ppg. After 8 games AFC is literally steaming at 2.38 ppg. Continue at this rate and the club will approach averages last seen in the Invincible year, which was a steady 2.37 ppg both midway and full  season.  Since those heady days, the next best was the average 2.35 ppg midway 2007-08, the year when our title challenge was literally smashed with the multiple fracture of Eduardo’s leg at Birmingham City in March 2008.

Average PPG – Premier League Champions

Mid Season Full Season
2004-05 2.42 2.50
2005-06 2.75 2.38
2006-07 2.47 2.34
2007-08 2.18 2.26
2008-09 2.25 2.37
2009-10 2.25 2.26
2010-11 2.11 2.11
2011-12 2.37 2.34
2012-13 2.45 2.34
2013-14 2.16 2.25
2014-15 2.42 2.29
2015-16 2.05 2.13
Average 2.32 2.30

As the table above illustrates, since 2004 the average winner of the PL title has averaged 2.32 and 2.30 ppg midway and full-season respectively. Interestingly the most dominant mid season performance was Chelsea’s in 2005-06, a year they suffered only one loss, coming very close to matching the Invincibles. The least dominant mid-season performance was last year’s, by Leicester, at 2.05 ppg. They were however able to improve their average point-haul by 39% in the second half of the season. In contrast over the 12 year period, most clubs set out to dominate in the first half of the season and suffer some tailing off in the 2nd. This happened 7 out of 12 times. But surely anything above the mid-season 2.32 ppg average is statistically significant.

In my opinion it is too early to come to any conclusions about the current streak. We are just half way into the first half of the season with ten more games to go. Clearly some patterns are beginning to show which we can all track and measure. I leave it to you dear readers to speculate.

46 Comments

Arsenal – Goals Are The Simplest Form Of Gratitude

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добро утро (dobro utro) Positive friends and fans of The Arsenal,

Yet another pleasant Autumn morning here in Norfolk as I scribble the further instalment in what is turning into a very pleasant season indeed, on all fronts. Oh yes the pen is flowing across the page like warm creamy custard over a fresh peeled banana.

Of last night’s game Ludogorets came and, for the opening 30 minutes, gave a good account of themselves. They had done their homework and understood that to get something from the evening required a swift smash and grab of a goal, or better still two, then a retreat behind the barricades and let us do out worst. Those opening few minutes I would have to say their tactics nearly came off, with Wanderson, Cafu, Misidjan and Marcelinho ( I wrote the names down so as not to forget) buzzing around our half of the pitch and our defenders, and even Le Coq, hard pressed to keep a grip on them.

On two occasions in the opening 20 minutes Ospina pulled off saves that kept Johnny Bulgar at bay. Yet again the patient Colombian was called into immediate action after games on the bench and responded impeccably. Let in an unexpected goal at home early on CL night and it can be a long, long evening. Looking at the final score line one might forget our keeper’s key saves at a time when the game was very much in the balance. It would be wrong to do so.

Our first goal, delightful as it was, only temporarily halted them back and even then they pushed forward. Up the 41st minute this game was still a real contest, though one we were gaining a stranglehold of.

Our second goal however, young Theo’s unexpected but deadly strike from 25 yards to the top right hand corner, rocked the visitors. The flicker of hope which had sustained their energy through a bright first half was extinguished. They knew at 2-0 down that there was no realistic chance of restoring parity. Probably the timing of Theo’s goal meant that what would have been an upbeat orange sucking half time in the Ludogorets dressing room at just 0-1, was a much more sombre, “backs-to-the-wall-lads”, conversation.

Goals 3,4,5 and 6. The second half we dominated without, oddly enough, really hitting our best game I thought. As the visitors tired larger and larger spaces appeared and we have players who just love space and know what to do with it. In other games and so comfortably ahead we have sat back more but not last might, and the Ox and then Mesut helped themselves to the next four as we all saw. To a degree part of the shellacking the Bulgarians eventually suffered was down to a couple of questionable saves from the unfortunate Stoyanov but even we occasionally run into a keeper not at his best. An 11 minute hat-trick ? Ridiculous, but enjoy it when it comes to you son.

Match ball for Mesut. Relaxed end to the evening, everyone went home happy, probably even those 000’s who left at 4-0.

The game played in the right spirit. No cards, no diving, no obvious rough stuff. Hard but fair from both sides. Referee Dias a good effort. Who knew that Ludogorets have a London fan club !?! I see them as well able to steal third place from Basel. The only jarring note last night was some bizarre punditry on BT. I will not bother to name names or repeat the absurdities. You know who they are.

Two days break before Boro, a team whose confidence has sunk like a stone since a couple of decent opening results in August. A fragile opponent. I fancy our momentum will continue onward and upward. Whose to say when our scoring spree may end.

Enjoy your Thursday

95 Comments

Arsenal Versus Ludogorets: Odd Man Out

odd

One of the barbed suggestions bandied about wherever Arsenal fans are scoring points off one another (and as I write this I must confess to the warm blush of shame because I seem to remember employing it myself on more than one occasion) is “If that’s how you feel then you are following the wrong sport”. The longer my dalliance with internet based support lasts the more I wonder if that pithy phrase isn’t one I ought more appropriately to have levelled at myself.

I never seem to quite be able to judge the tone, am never quite in step with my peers. Take Saturday morning’s little bit of fluff, dashed off before breakfast it was intended as a light rebuke to myself, a reminder to enjoy the game for its own sake and not allow the peripheral flim flam to obfuscate the simple pleasures which are the foundation of a supporter’s obsession. And yet several people told me they took it as a rebuke, a ‘smack on the wrist’, as if I were handing out poor marks in Arsenal class.

I misjudge, my darts fly awry.

Similarly after the dastardly Mr Moss provided us all with a suitable villain to gather around and bash like a verbal piñata I rolled up with my big stick ready to start swinging. But what did I find? Nearly everyone had erected a statue to the sainted whistle and card merchant and were genuflecting before their poor misunderstood and wrongly maligned hero.

I miss the beat, come in on the wrong note.

This latest reminder of my inability to properly bond with the gang is a mere synecdoche to the larger script of my life and I didn’t ought to be surprised when it applies to a hobby such as football. My favourite politicians are hounded, lambasted and hated by their own side as much as by their enemies, my favourite football manager is treated with revulsion by the majority of the football world and my favourite team never seems to receive recognition for its achievements, is damned with the faintest of praise and overlooked unless there is a negative tale to tell.

So what to do? I can’t alter my allegiances. Not when they arise from somewhere so deep and visceral. I can’t pretend to love the divisive politics of hate and contempt just so that the mainstream media will reflect my views. I can’t pretend that referees are just ‘failing every now and then because they have such a difficult job’ when their incompetence or poisoned hearts are on naked display week in week out, and I can’t start wearing a Liverpool scarf or Tottenham shirt just to experience the approval of sports journalists and pundits everywhere.

Now it seems I can’t even write an Arsenal blog without making it all about me when it’s supposed to be about the team and written for everyone.  Or can I?  I’ll tell you what, just for a minor diversion, for a ‘giggle’ as Londoners are so fond of saying, let’s see if I can get in step with the rest of world and not feel so horribly isolated and adrift. I’m going to write a proper football blog for a change.

Here goes.

Tonight the Emirates stadium will be packed with dozens of empty seats for the visit of Bulgarian no hopers Ludogorets. With the price of seats and the match live on BT Sports not to mention the shaky home form since the first half against Chelsea I can’t blame fans for staying at home. Even after struggling to convince against relegation fodder such as Burnley and league strugglers Swansea I can’t imagine even Wenger can pick a team unable to win and win easy tonight and not struggle against Euro group strugglers Ludogrets. Honestly scraping a lucky draw against PSG and then failing to build on a good opening against Basel when their defence was holey like a holey Swiss cheese isn’t good enough and unless something changes and changes tonight we will be lucky to scrape second place YET AGAIN in our group. The experiment with Sanchez down the middle has failed. Yes he has scored a few but he has played so far out of position for most of the games that even Theo Walcott found himself further forward twice and scored where a centre forward ought to of been. For that reason I cannot see why Wenger won’t start Lucas Perez tonight. I mean to say, why sign a centre forward then play a winger down the middle? We needed a replacement for Giroud who is slow and simply NOT GOOD ENOUGH. We did not need to move Sanchez around he was doing just fine where he was. It is like Arshavin and Podolski all over again. Monreal had an absolute nightmare on Saturday against a complete unknown and it was only bringing on Gibbs that saved us from further embarrassment down that side. For this reason I believe it is time for Gibbs to get his chance. The boy has done nothing wrong and MUST start tonight. I saw the Ox on Sky and it is obvious he is not happy. Why spend so much money on a player and not play him? It is Perez all over again. He must be given his chance. I would play him on the wing instead of Theo who missed three sitters on Saturday. Don’t let a couple of tap in goals fool you he is not Arsenal quality and never has been it is like Aliadiare all over again so for that reason Ox MUST start tonight. Xhaka has scored a couple of good goals but on Saturday showed his true colours and is not to be trusted in our midfield. Because Wenger failed to strengthen in that area again we have no choice but to start Elneny even though it is obvious Wenger doesn’t trust him or if he did he would of picked him more and anyway he will go the the cup of Africa Nationals soon anyway. My team would be Cech Bellerin Gibbs Mustafi Kos Elneny Santi Ozil Sanchez Perez Ox but I know Wenger will play the midget Colombian in goals no matter what the fans want but I cannot see how there can be any other changes from my line up there. This is a MUST WIN game. We deserve a better performance than which we have lately been seeing but honestly three points will do no matter how we get them. In fact three points is all that matters. I can’t see us losing to a bunch of Balkan part timers who no one has ever heard of but this is Arsenal and we only do things the hard way don’t we?

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Xhaka, Refs And Arsenal

I wanted to put in words my feelings on the whole Xhaka red card malarky. It’s hard, because when I tried on Twitter it came across that I thought he was a bad lad and I agreed with the sending off. Neither of these things are true. So when I saw  comment from our very own Arsenal Andrew, that perfectly summed up my feeling about not just that incident, but the overall state of the team and our position, in typical fashion, I thought “I’ll nick that”. 

Also, Andrew has been conspicuous by his absence (a bit like me really?) on the articles front, so this is my way of forcing the shirker out of his slumber.

“I’d be surprised if we see much more of Moss in the future, his ‘display’ left everything to be desired and had he succeeded, sorry, had Swansea succeeded in scabbing the draw we’d have never heard the last of it, and rightly so.

It’s rarely a single incident that riles fan rage but a culmination of confounding decisions that eventually add up to a deep-rooted dissatisfaction with the overall refereeing performance. And so it was on Saturday with Moss’s reckless ignoring of two Arsenal head injuries ahead of his joyous sprint to over-punish the over-stretched Granit.

Personally I love it when cheats are punished and would happily see all such unfootballing activities dealt with via the red card. But they so rarely are which makes Moss’s over-the-top intervention, in the context of his earlier tolerance of Swansea’s thuggery wholly confounding and ultimately unacceptable. Hence the outrage.

Which was a pity because refereeing shenanigans aside it was a thrilling game, thoroughly enjoyable and a terrific win for Arsenal. Except come season’s end, it won’t be remembered for that, will it?

And what of Arsenal’s wider form? As Shotta reminds us from time to time, we appear to be in the midst of a statistically significant run at the moment, though we have all been here before, right?

Our traditional Autumn Run tends to derail itself with a pile-up of injuries that clear themselves up in time for the end of season express train run-in. The difference this season, if any can be expected?

This will become manifestly clear over the next 8 weeks but to me we must be perilously close to having genuine strength in squad depth across all positions. Surely no team could absorb a loss to the side such as that presented by injuries to Ozil and Sanchez? I’d suggest that, brilliant though both clearly are, neither have hit top, top form which suggests the rest of the side – and the replacements in the wings – must be pretty decent.

I’m quietly confident.”

54 Comments

Arsenal – the Swansea Pivot

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Bore da pobl y Positives,

What a cracking game yesterday. One that will stick in my mind when the record of the 2016/2017 Premier League season is published.

Of the game itself? I admit I anticipated an easier afternoon, against a Swansea team in the bottom three, not won a game since the opening day of 13th of August in any competition, who have struggled this season on their travels, and who rolled up at the Ems with the unknown Mr Bradley in charge. What threat could they provide to an Arsenal side that has been flying of late, a virtually fully fit squad, quality all over the pitch and the Ems a relative fortress with the Scarfists silently peripheral in their misery as winning game follows game.

I should know better although until the 38th minute everything proceeded as I expected. We dominated the ball, passed well, slipped in the first with Theo showing the strength of a young Hercules, then doubled our lead. The visitors really did not have an answer. They chased us desperately but were always a yard behind. “Welcome to the PL Bob, this could get a bit tricky for you though”.

And then in the 38th minute that silly error from Granit, the ball given away needlessly which Sigurdsson slotted beyond Cech. That was a hell of a finish from a player who is not supposed to be a striker. Over those few seconds our dominance faded and/or Swansea sniffed the possibility of recovery from what a moment before had been a serious beating. One of THOSE moments.

Thereafter for the remainder of the match we found ourselves in an even contest, lots of energy, Alexis buzzing, cut and thrust, both sides playing a good passing game, their man Barrow a constant pest, both sides attacking con brio. We eased a little further ahead with an outstanding ball from the Chilean and a super finish from Mesut. And then, damn them, SCFC managed to drag us back to 3-2.

I could sense the manager’s unease when he put on Le Coq in place of Iwobi. This was going to be a hard last 25 minutes, the points were far from safe.

Moss’s choice of card colour was, as Arsene said, “harsh”. Whether Barrow was in fact injured I don’t know. A trip would not normally cause an injury but he appeared to be limping afterwards and exited ten minutes later so perhaps he was.

The final 20+ minutes were end to end stuff. Swansea had most of the ball, we defended carefully, solidly, cleanly, and kept them at bay. Our earlier looseness in defence was replaced by steely efficiency. Much our credit we also were (almost) deadly in our counter attacking, with two more chances for Theo that would and, in the case of the second one, should have finally hammered the Swans to defeat.

Of the result ? Very, very important. We stumbled in the 38th minute but managed to stay up. We had less possession than Swansea, and ultimately less players, but we had we used more effectively. Three points on a day when our rivals slipped up. Three points in a game decided by a pass and a finish from our two world class players. As you may gather from the photograph above the game took it out of me.

The significance of the game and the result ? Our sixth Premier League victory and we settle on the shoulder of the blue Manchester team, breathing lightly on the shiny dome of Pep. As I said in opening on such days are League Championships won, and lost.

Therefore enjoy your Sunday and we shall see what the champions of Bulgaria have to offer later in the week.

229 Comments

Arsenal Versus Swansea: Listen Very Carefully, I Shall Say This Only Once

'Allo 'Allo

I grew up immersed in radio. Probably as a result of being brought up by parents who in their turn were raised during the medium’s golden age. As with many people of my generation I swiftly tired of the feeble and inane antics of the gormless, coiffured imbeciles who polluted the airwaves from the studios of Radio 1. It wasn’t so much their crushing insincerity which so turned me off as their obvious lack of discernment, knowledge of and love for music. The very stuff on which their careers depended.

There were always exceptions, usually shunted to the graveyard shifts and all of whom no matter how dedicated and worthy slid into the shadow of one truly remarkable man. John Peel wasn’t just ahead of the curve, John Peel often decided what shape the curve ought to be. He was also honest, unfeigned in his enthusiasms and scathing in his dismissal of the worst excesses of the industry he had graced with his presence long before I became aware of his work.

I am in fact listening to one of his broadcasts from 1981 as I write this and he has just effortlessly and with delicious, well judged perversity segued from Scientist Meets Roots Radics into The Birthday Party as only he could. This is courtesy of a rather splendid blog called The Perfumed Garden and if you’re a fan I suggest you have a gander.

I’m almost embarrassed to admit this but I often didn’t bother to listen to his shows in the later years. I would sometimes catch him on Radio 4 on a Saturday morning when he presented  Home Truths but oftentimes was stupidly casual where his music show was concerned. I assumed, well, I suppose I just assumed he’d always be around and I could dip in and out like a kleptomaniac at a Wilko’s pick ‘n’ mix stand.

Of course Peely upped and died on us in October 2004 and I was bereft in a way no ‘celebrity’ death has affected me before or since. It was a salutary lesson. Nothing is forever, no one will be a permanent fixture in our lives. That which we enjoy today will soon be the stuff of fading memory. Much, much sooner than we ever imagine. Who, for example, could have envisaged that watching Tomáš Rosický as he pirouetted through and around a hapless opposition midfield and defence would already be just so much nostalgia?

Football is an especially transient business with individuals and indeed entire squads seeming to evaporate into the ether. Given that we have all experienced this time and again and given that we have therefore a sense of the impermanence of the component elements of that which gives us so much joy, doesn’t it strike you as crazy that we spend so much of our precious time arguing, haranguing one another and worrying about what the irredeemably irrelevant such as Piers Morgan might or might not have been saying lately?

Just because Arsène Wenger has been around since the Pleistocene I fear that many people may make the mistake I made with John Peel and simply take the great man for granted. Those of us who revere him, those who for their own tangled, deranged and unhappy reasons detest him, both like to indulge in heated debate about what will happen when he’s gone. This and most other silly disputes are simply distractions and if we spend too long down such rabbit holes we may pop our bewildered heads back above ground one day to find the Wenger era is suddenly no more and instead of enjoying every single last second of it we were down the pub when we might have been sitting at home with the radio on.

The current Arsenal squad is a case in point. Already we have witnessed passages of play and goals to rank with the very best that Wengerball has had to offer. That we might be witnessing something special is transparently obvious and worrying about whether the run can last or whether Aaron can regain his place or if Jack’s loan is a precursor to his exit or if Hector will ‘do a Cesc’ is the most idiotic waste of the moment I can image.

Now don’t panic I’m not going to give you any Mindfulness psychobabble about ‘living in the now’ I’ll leave that to the next David Brent impersonator you end up trapped with on a professional development seminar at work. I’m simply aware that we live in age of multiple distractions and it is all too easy to spread the jam a little too thinly. Often I hear people say they can’t enjoy the game for fear of losing and the resultant fall out with mates and colleagues. I myself have missed goals while furiously typing to nobody at all my thoughts on some irrelevant detail during the build up.

If we don’t enjoy every single second of Mesut Özil, every moment of a resurgent Theo Walcott because we’re too busy fuming at the brainless questions some semi literate hack spewed at Arsène in the recent presser then we will regret it. Trust me.

And so to today’s feast of football fun. Swansea have, lately, been like the head of a Playmobil figure trodden on by the bare foot of a hungover divorcee the day after his kids went back to their mother and Brian. In our last five meetings we’ve only beaten them once and in the last three home fixtures they’ve beaten us twice and drawn once. If you want to go right back to our first Premier league encounter with the chaps from Dylan’s ‘ugly, lovely town’ the stats show an absolute balance. A perfect tie, with both sides winning and losing seven and drawing two.

Can we tilt the see-saw our way this afternoon? Hell yes. Of course we can. Can they frustrate us once again? Well, it’s sport, everything is possible, no matter how apparently unlikely. I say unlikely simply because no matter how well Swansea have faired against us historically, this season they are on a dismal run of form. Taken over the previous six matches the form table shows us at the top and our visitors anchored to the bottom.

I have no clue what to expect from Swansea today. Their manager is untested in the Premier League but early indications suggest that he feels a lack of fitness to be at the root of their travails thus far. If so it seems unlikely such a concern can have already been addressed – these things take time. Also a side like Arsenal which often increases the intensity of their game the longer the match goes on is probably the last opponent Bob Bradley would have chosen to meet.

Performances following the hated international break can be patchy but are usually successful.  Either way I intend to enjoy every moment. Each beautifully timed interception from Kos or Mustafi, each rapier thrust from Hector, every astonishing piece of control from Santi or Mesut. All of it, I will be watching as if it’s my last match, I refuse to be that guy who looks around in astonishment one day as he realises that the Wenger era passed him by. As good and as inspirational as this vintage John Peel show might be, watching highlights of an old game is no substitute for the visceral thrill of the real thing.

92 Comments

Santi Cazorla or Aaron Ramsey: Wenger’s Dilemma

1cazorla-ramseyIt is the interlull and idle minds have idle thoughts. At the risk of arousing the mischief-makers in the fanbase, who eagerly need a scapegoat du jour to feast on when the going gets wobbly, there is something intriguing about the future role of Aaron Ramsey when he returns from injury given the way the team has developed in his absence. To be fair I am not the first fan who has raised these concerns but I will approach it from my usual data-driven perspective.

I start from the premise that Ramsey is directly competing with Santi Cazorla for that central midfield starting position. I base this primarily on the fact that Wenger selected Ramsey to be the box-to-box midfielder in the club’s season-opener vs Liverpool at the expense of a fit Cazorla who only came on after the younger man left the field with a hamstring injury.

A superficial look at their characteristics according to Whoscored.com would suggest that Santi has the greater skill-set and is hands-down a better option, all things being equal.

Santi Cazorla
Strengths
Passing Very Strong
Through balls Very Strong
Holding on to the ball Strong
Key passes Strong
Dribbling Strong
Taking set-pieces Strong
Long shots Strong
Weaknessess
Tackling Weak
Aaron Ramsey
Strengths
Passing Very Strong
Key passes Strong
Holding on to the ball Strong
Defensive Contribution Strong
Weaknessess
Crossing Weak

Merely looking at their relative characteristics, in my opinion, does not adequately answer the question as to why the manager saw Ramsey as a superior option at the beginning of the season. Unlike many Arsenal bloggers, I do not believe for one moment that Wenger makes any footballing decision based purely on sentiment. He has said often enough he is obsessed with winning football games and his record of victories is second to none when it comes to previous football mangers at Arsenal Football Club. Focussing solely on their EPL performances, I decided to parse the WhoScored data to identify any trends, starting with their respective playing time.

png-cazram-minutes

It’s quite evident that ever since his transfer to the club in 2012 (the importance of this was overshadowed by the noisy, acrimonious sale of Van Persie to United that same summer) Santi has played some heavy minutes for the club, in excess of 3,000 per season in 12/13 and 14/15. Add 624 and 559 respectively in the champions league campaigns, then we get a full measure of how vital it was for the manager to have the little Spaniard on the team sheet. For comparison’s sake, Aaron has never logged a similar amount of time but it is telling that when Santi’s playing time was scuttled by injuries in 15/16, the Welshman’s participation increased, suggesting there is an inverse relationship.

png-cazram-goals

In the goal-scoring department Ramsey is the clear winner over the four seasons together. He hit a peak of 10 goals in 13/14 and since then has leveled off to a most recent haul of 5 goals for a season. Santi was a goal-scoring tyro in 12/13 but has become less of an option from open play emerging as the penalty and free-kick specialist in recent years. After 15 games in 15/16, before that season-ending injury, his goal tally was zero.

png-cazram-assists

While Ramsey had an Indian summer in 13/14 with goals and assists, like his goal-scoring, the assists have gradually tailed off over the years. In 15/16 he was a provider on a mere four occasions. In contrast Santi has been a constant assister, his best years being 12/13 and 14/15 when he had major minutes on the field. His only off year was 15/16 when his campaign was truncated less than half way through.

png-cazram-pass

This is a most telling graphic. Santi with one exception has consistently been the superior passer. While they may have been statistically the same in 12/13, Aaron’s passing percentage has been decidedly inferior over time with the gap at its widest in 15/16 at 4 percentage points. Ramsey is down to the mid 80s while the Spaniard is in the stratospheric 90s. How significant is this difference given that the current Arsenal is a technically oriented outfit that relies on possession and accurate, clever passing?

 

png-cazram-overall

In its ultimate rating Whoscored ranked Ramsey a superior Overall player on only one occasion at 7.7. That was in 13/14, the best year in his career for goals and assists. Otherwise Santi has had the consistently superior Overall rating, from a high of 7.9 in 12/13 to a low of 7.3 in 13/14. Despite the ravages of time, Santi is now 31 years old (vs Aaron’s youthful 26), the veteran has seemingly defied age this season. After six EPL games he has 2 goals and 2 assists and a 92% passing success rate, yielding a 7.1 Overall rating. The little magician seems in no hurry to exit center stage.

Arsene Wenger certainly has better knowledge of both players than any of us. He observes them on the training ground and will have access to superior data than Whoscored. The manager recently admitted he receives enormous information from the in-house analytics firm, StatDNA, but has to whittle it down to what is most important. In this instance, while the data set is small, I wonder whether he now thinks Ramsey’s better goal-scoring and defensive contribution outweighs Cazorla’s better passing and assists. Interesting times ahead.

88 Comments

Wenger Will Be The Manager Indefinitely

consistency

Unlike my more erudite colleagues at PA, my role is to inform and explain the sometimes boring but always unbiased data that serve as predictors of the competitive future of our club.

Due to the longevity of our great manager, we have 20 years of data covering 760 Premier League games that allow us to identify certain long term trends which are repetitive and predictable. Unlike the mainstream media and most of our colleagues who blog, podcast or tweet we do not have to resort to cheap sensationalism to make our point. A review of two very important developments will illustrate my point.

Wenger20

The celebration of Wenger’s 20 years as manager of the club was marked by a massive orgy of hyperbole and bogus platitudes by the mainstream media that must have left the manager bemused. After all, less than six months ago the self-same media, led by serial phone-hacker Piers Morgan, were eagerly fanning the flames of discontent and provoking demonstrations by fans to drive Wenger Out.

I therefore feel great empathy for our own Pedantic George when he vented in the Comments section of the blog last Saturday:

“Seeing a shower of absolute bastards, currying favour on the back of Arsene’s 20th anniversary, is turning my stomach.”

Unfortunately there is nothing that either George, I, or you the reader can do that will change the behavior of these “bastards”. It is totally consistent with my “greed and despair” paradigm to which I frequently refer. (More details here.) They are simply “sensationalizing,” preying on emotions. Notice that every member of the commercial media in England and on this side of the pond (i.e. NBC which has the Premier league broadcast rights) is doing a special on Wenger proclaiming how great he is. It makes commercial sense. Arsenal fans in particular are drawn to it in droves and those eyeballs online mean money especially for those newspapers who are bleeding readership, because the public has increasingly lost faith in them thanks to their mendacity and bias.

Yet six weeks ago, in mid-August, I did a blog showing that in the collective wisdom of nearly 40 pundits from both ESPN and BBC, Arsenal under Arsene was predicted to come 3rd in the league, in direct contradiction to the historical data. It defies reason that most journalists, pundits or bloggers within weeks, sometimes days, of declaring Wenger no longer fit for purpose, write such voluminous paeans and odes of praise to his greatness.

Unlike the mainstream media and the majority of vacillating, wavering Arsenal bloggers, we have cold hard data to justify our firmly held conviction that Arsene is not only the greatest manager this club has ever had but he is set to continue indefinitely. A contract is already in his hands and I am sure the board will be anxious as kittens until he signs. Like the bankers who demanded he agree to remain as manager for five years after moving into the new stadium, we rely on past performance, not sentiment.

“Consistency, thou art a jewel” – Shakespeare

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What is undeniable, from the graphic above, is that under 20 years of Arsene’s management the club has recorded the joint second highest average points per season (74) among all clubs, despite being massively outspent by United, Chelsea and City and at times, Liverpool. Despite the over one billion pounds invested in Chelsea by Abramovich in the past 12 years, the gap between them and Arsenal is negligible. (Note the graphic is generous to City whose average is calculated over 16 years by excluding the four seasons they were in the 2nd and 3rd flight of English football.) Also observable is the considerable gulf between between the Gunners and its North London rivals, in the order of 20 points.  Of all his rivals Arsene is yet to overhaul or match Manchester United, a realistic prospect in the first ten years until the club decided to focus its resources on building a new and bigger stadium.This is a handy segue to doing what is now standard in my analyses which is measure Wenger’s consistency in the pre-Emirates versus the Post-Emirate years.

Pre-Emirates

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The graphic and figures are crystal clear. Even though Wenger did not have the capacity to make record transfers in the magnitude of Ferguson at United, he had sufficient resources and the managerial nous to be on average only three (3) points inferior to the biggest and most successful club in England (80 vs 77 points). Despite inferior finances Arsene/Arsenal was able to capture three EPL titles including the singular honor of an Invincible, two doubles including the Invincible year and four FA cups.  In contrast, Manchester City, without the financial resources of the Abu Dhabi group, had in the same ten-year span spent four years outside of the top flight generating a piddling season average of 23 points, less than one-third of Arsenal’s.

Post Emirates

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With the austerity brought on by the stadium move, as well as  Chelsea and City becoming the unprecedented beneficiaries of deep-pocketed sugar-daddies, Wenger was simply unable to compete in the transfer market. Nonetheless Arsenal remained consistently among the top-three clubs in points earned with the season average dropping by six (6) to 71 points. It is notable that despite the hundreds of millions spent by Chelsea, their season average is no better than Wenger’s 77 points during his first ten years. Similarly, a big spender like City, with ten years to get a run at a financially crippled Wenger, is still three (3) points behind in current season average. Liverpool, despite the constant churn of managers, players and owners remain in-situ. That is not a comforting statistic if the scousers ever hope to catch and surpass Arsenal.

Now that Arsene/Arsenal is able to consistently spend on top-top quality players as well as patiently develop those coming through the academy, only the rabid anti-Wenger WOBs and weak-willed fans who allow themselves to become victims of groundless doom-mongering by the media, would bet against Wenger at least regaining the ground lost over the past ten-years.  If he is as competitive as his brother Guy disclosed in that recent newspaper interview, Arsene will be dying to prove he has the same, if not more longevity, than his older sibling who retired at 70. How many of you, dear reader, are willing to put up a wager?

Unto Burnley

Despite the whingeing and whining in various quarters that Arsenal was not as fluent, not as free-scoring as in prior games vs Chelsea and Basel, the most important piece of data from the Burnley game is the winning streak continues. The club is now 5 wins without a loss. In contrast, the previous leader in this statistical category, Manchester City, saw their winning streak end last Sunday at 6 wins. What should hearten every Gooner is the comprehensive nature of City’s loss to Spurs, who missed a penalty by the way. Prior to this loss, the media and some Arsenal fans were noisily trumpeting Pep Guardiola as their genius manager who automatically made City  presumptive champions of the EPL, a full eight months before end of season.

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Legend: Crimson – MUFC, Yellow – AFC, Blue- CFC, Light Blue – MCFC, Red – LCFC

In my last blog I highlighted data showing that the key to Arsenal winning previous titles under Wenger was going on substantial winning streaks. The average winning sequence in those 3 championship years was 11 games, ranging from a low of 9 to a high of 13. The clear implication being that victorious Arsenal teams tend to be consistently dominant throughout a season. One may argue that the data set is too small to draw any conclusions but during the past 20 years the average longest winning streak by a PL winning club was 8 games. The maximum run was 13 games by Arsenal in 2001-02 versus a minimum of 4 games by Manchester United in 2010-11. See the graphic above.

The data in my opinion is crystal clear.

For us to confidently predict a title win, this Arsenal team must attain at least an 8 game sequence of wins. Maybe this is the streak or it will be attained later in the season.

As positively realistic fans, we will patiently wait on the data.

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It Was 1-0 To The Arsenal And That Is Never Wrong

Today’s article is from our very own Gf60

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Neither offside nor handball as clearly shown by this image, courtesy of Arsenal.com

Andy Nic chose a very good weekend to visit the D Day memorial in Normandy.

Even his cultured prose would have had problems with this game.  As Steww mentioned in his preview regarding fans’ superstition of travelling North of Watford after a Euro game: “The best we can hope for is to survive and nick the points…”.

By the way, where did all those virgins go Steww?

Superstition 1, Steww 0.

Having watched most of our ‘1-0 to the Arsenal’ games it is no lie to say that this was probably the closest finish we’ve experienced, with no time to even kick off after Kos’s winner… or was it Ox’s winner? Whatever it was, it must be termed our scrappiest goal of the season and Burnley supporters will argue that off-side and/or hand-ball should have been called.

Incorrect of course, it was 1-0 to the Arsenal and that is never wrong.

No changes to the side from the Basel game, bar Petr coming in for Oosp, but we definitely saw a change in tempo. Perhaps a return to planet Earth was due and the stygian gloom of the North-West would not have helped. For sure we seemed to be playing at half the pace seen during the previous eight days and it took us some fifteen minutes to acclimatize.

Even then, it was noticeable that our midfield was a bit heavy-legged, nobody doing much wrong but having nowhere near the control that we’d previously shown.  Fortunately our back line was working well and despite a couple of chances were holding Burnley at bay. The Koshodra partnership was very sound as was the covering for any defender caught upfield.  Petr made some good saves when needed, one particularly special in the second half.

Up front, Alexis was running around like the butcher’s dog but not getting the reward his energy deserved.

He’s such an unselfish player and had a few shooting possibilities that were laid off to others. Time to get the selfishness back Alexis? You did that on Wednesday as well trying to give Theo his hat-trick.

Theo’s good work in defence continued. He really has improved in that area. Pity that his shooting let him down, as was the case with Oz. Theo however was responsible for the header that led to our goal so he can be forgiven.

Oz just had an offish day.

Now for yet another interbloodynational break …

Let’s hope all the guys called on come back fit and ready to eat some roast swan.

Keep the faith.

124 Comments

Arsenal Versus Burnley: To the Virgins, to Make Much of Time

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Damn the coffee tastes good this morning. I had a long and wearying day yesterday, entirely missed any football related news and gossip and have woken to thin watery sunlight washing through chill autumnal air. Only one thought could kick me out of the womb like warm coddling of my memory foamed paradise; Turf Moor, sixteen thirty hours, and the return of our all conquering heroes.

There is a superstition among fans that travelling north of Watford on the weekend following a European midweek match is a tricky affair. The best we can hope for is to survive and nick the points and return home to prepare for the next game when, refreshed and rejuvenated, the boys can once again turn on the style. That mood has not so much lifted as evaporated this week.

Such is the atmosphere of joy and goodwill within the Arsenal family right now that everyone is licking their lips in anticipation, revelling in some sparkling performances and generally not coming down off their post Chelsea buzz. I’m a naturally cautious character. Having predicted a good day when Costa and co visited the Emirates I agonised over removing the offending paragraph. Terrified of hubris, of misplaced optimism, and (whisper it) being irrationally and unforgivably concerned at ‘jinxing’ the result it was a genuinely difficult decision to leave it in.

In the end the sense of gathering momentum, the hints of a joyous return to the wonders of Wengerball were so strong as to be irresistible and my inner editor waved the white flag and skulked off to sulk in the corner. Of course I didn’t ‘know’ we would trounce Chelsea and produce a performance of breathtaking superiority over Basel. I didn’t dare to even guess but I had to express the feeling, to try to articulate the warm spread of confidence that came not out of the blue but from the steadily growing assurance with which the team was playing. The signs were there against Watford, and they proved themselves true.

So now the point in hand. Can we continue the momentum against Burnley? Is this side on the verge of putting together an indomitable run or have we just witnessed a flash in the pan? A quick survey of the coffee grinds reveals nothing of note and certainly nothing pertinent to the football. Our opposition promises obdurate, methodical defence and a George Graham like miserliness whenever they take the lead. Arsène said, in one of his many interviews last week, that Sean Dyche has come up with a system for Premier League survival, honed over his four years in charge, and based around efficiency and organisation.

This suggests that we will need to be at our fast, inventive and free flowing best to bypass an obdurate midfield and well drilled defence. We have of course had plenty of experience of siege warfare over the years. Teams are alleged to have hit upon two ways to frustrate Arsène Wenger’s side; kick ’em up in the air, or pack the defence and hope for the long ball counter attacking goal. I have often seen people bemoaning the fact that we appear incapable of dealing with either tactic to which I have a one word response. Phooey.

If we were truly unsuccessful when faced with the tactical defence employed by ninety percent of our opponents then we would hardly be finishing in the top four year on year would we? While it can be frustrating to watch sometimes the team generally does get their reward. The exceptions which prove the rule of course stick in the craw and take on a distorted importance in much the same way as the single grain of sand renders the Vaseline less efficacious than one might otherwise wish.

Having said that it is a gruelling business wearing down a dogged defence and can delay the crucial breakthrough until very late in the game. I suspect that rather than going fishing and assuming all will be well on the day, the greatest coach in the Premier League spends many of his waking hours turning over solutions to the problem in that overstuffed Gallic noggin of his. I also believe we are seeing the fruits of those mental labours played out on the pitch.

A subtle shift in tactics enabled by being able to augment the squad with the right kind of players, by patiently allowing key personnel to return to form after long spells of injury and shifting others positionally have all combined to a new, dare I say more ruthless version of Wengerball. Fast direct running with simple combinations such as that which left Theo romping into the open spaces behind the Basel defence for his second goal. Lofted passes over the massed ranks exploited by lightning quick, intuitive footballers coming from all over the pitch whether nominally wide midfielders, fullbacks or strikers. All of this combined with the tried and trusted patient passing moves designed to keep possession, frustrate the opposition and draw them out from their lair has achieved a heady brew of irresistible football.

My pesky inner editor wants me to sound a note of caution now. This entire caffeine fuelled piece, he says, has a ring of triumphalism surely out of place in a preview of events yet to pass. Once again I squash his objections and counter with this. I’m not predicting an easy win, heck I’ve not even predicted a win. All I’m doing is revelling in a purple patch, enjoying the sun while it shines and gathering ye rosebuds, in time honoured fashion, while I may. I don’t predict nor expect the wonderful form of the last two games to continue for the rest of the season, that would be a fatuous exercise in trying your patience. However I do firmly believe that if we can’t be happy and enjoy the sport when our team is playing well and winning then really, we should question whether we ought to be following the game at all.

If you’re travelling to Lancashire today, wrap up warm and I trust you’ll be in good voice. If you haven’t heard from me by four o’clock, send someone round to give me a poke, it’s just possible the coffee may have worn off and yesterday’s exertions have caught up with me. I’d hate to be sleeping when the the next chapter in this fascinating football story unfolds.