55 Comments

Even Tottenham Is As Good As Arsenal

Posted by shotta_gooner on February 6, 2017 in All Posts

einstein

Watching the foul against Bellerin in the 13th minute of Saturday’s match against Chelsea, my initial reaction was surely Atkinson, seeing it in real time, must have gotten it right; after all he is the senior FIFA ref in the PGMO. That was until I saw the young man crumpled on the turf oblivious to what was around him, clearly hurt and later diagnosed as concussed. Then came the slow realization that I and others was experiencing a classic replay of the worse of PGMO refereeing that has afflicted Arsenal and other unfancied clubs in the Premier league in the past ten years; the blatant use of excessive force, perpetuated in plain sight, had gone unpunished in favor of a big-moneyed team who, on this occasion, were allowed to score a decisive first goal. (The replays I speak of are the unpunished smashing of Eduardo and Aaron Ramsey in the not so recent past.)

While I had written two-blogs in the preceding weeks documenting, in my view, clear and convincing evidence of OR on the balance of probabilities proof of referee bias, it struck me I was still psychologically unprepared for Atkinson’s proclivity to rule against Arsenal and in favor of Chelsea. Thus, contrary to my initial desire to not belabor the point, I am impelled to provide additional evidence of referee bias to the jury of public opinion, many of whom, even after Saturday, remain unconvinced.

Initially, I was inclined to research whether the award or denial of penalties was tied to Arsenal’s disciplinary record with yellow and red cards. But my colleagues in the Positively Arsenal community were able to point to a study by someone at Untold Arsenal which indicated that during the Mike Riley era, of the constantly PL teams since 2007, no other team except Sunderland has received more red cards despite the narrative in the media that Arsenal is not physical enough. Even Stoke, that paragon of English toughness, has fewer red cards. What an amazing statistic; the least physical team in the PL is adjudged the dirtiest by the PGMO refs.

Not wanting to bore my readers by going over old ground, I decided to evaluate whether the award of penalties bore any relationship to the offensive statistics of the top-6 teams in the league. Fortunately for me, at least, since 2009 the highly rated whoscored.com have done a team by team analysis of every participant in the league compiling what they identify as key data and thereafter giving each team an overall ranking as well separate ranking based on their offensive and defensive statistics.

For this blog I focused on the offensive ranking of the top-6 over the past seven seasons and compared this with the average number of penalties awarded by the PGMOB. Despite being hardened and inured to the ability of PL refs to turn reality on its head, I was astonished by the results of the data. Since Mike Riley’s tenure, the PGMO have managed to make Tottenham the equal of Arsenal in creating penalties despite being ranked 5th offensively compared to the Gunners being ranked 3rd.

Arsenal Chelsea Livepool Man City Man Utd Tottenham
Off Rank 3 4 5 4 4 5
Shots pg 16.0 16.9 16.9 16.6 15.0 16.9
Shots OT pg 5.9 5.9 5.6 5.8 5.2 5.6
Dribbles pg 11.5 9.7 9.7 9.3 8.6 9.6
Fouled pg 11.3 11.6 11.0 9.9 10.7 11.0
Rating 7.10 7.0 7.0 7.7 7.03 7.0
Penalties 5 8 6 7 6 5

According to whoscored, Tottenham is inferior to Arsenal in all statistical categories except shots per game. Most notably they have 16.5% less dribbles per game, which is generally accepted as a metric highly correlated with getting penalties. But they manage to get practically the same amount of penalties on average.

More mind boggling is Liverpool being awarded on average more penalties than Arsenal (6 vs 5) despite being inferior in every category except Shots per game. They were equally dribble-shy as Tottenham.

Overall, despite being having the highest average offensive Rank and second highest Rating by whoscored, Arsenal has been awarded close to the lowest number of penalties of all the top-6 teams. Yet Arsenal has on average the highest number of Dribbles per game and is the next to Chelsea is the most fouled team. The irony of the Foul per game data is that the award of fouls is by the same referees who seem reluctant to award penalties.

Like the flagrant unpunished foul on Bellerin, the non-award of penalties to Arsenal by the PGMO defy the laws of the game and any statistical explanation. Contrast this to the more favorable treatment to all five other teams in the top-6 especially Tottenham and Liverpool.

Next time, after comparing the penalties against data with whoscored’s defensive rankings, hopefully we can arrive at some definitive conclusions.

Tags: , , , , , , , , , , , , , , Permalink
93 Comments

Arsenal: Ambition Undone

Posted by anicoll5 on February 5, 2017 in All Posts

FullSizeRender (5).jpg

Good morning Positivistas,

And what a long time a week is in football ?

Of yesterday’s game, yesterday’s defeat for let us not pussy-foot about, I think it was the most comprehensive we have suffered for a long while against domestic competition. Of course we have lost games against PL opponents this season and last but not, in my view at least, when we have been beaten by a side playing better football. Sometimes we have lost to more efficient sides, sometimes we were genuinely unlucky, and sometimes our grief was self inflicted. But yesterday we played a Chelsea team who defended very well, organised and decisive. We played a team whose midfield buzzed (Kante) and created, and whose attacking threat (Costa and Hazard) was sharper on the day than our own. We played a team who are by a distance the best in the PL and came up short, in the end by their three goals to our one. Barring a collapse of Devon Loch proportions over the next few games we were beaten yesterday by the Premier League Champions of the 2016-2017 season.

There may of course and are reasons for the disparity on the day. Our many missing players v Chelsea’s almost injury free season, the early injury to Hector, of one or more of our players having a “stinker”, of refereeing decisions disadvantaging us, of the greater difficulty of engaging in domestic and European completion, and of the home sides’ access to unlimited funds et cetera. In other possible worlds other possible results can occur. And Arsene’s exclusion to the stands a further negative in determining the outcome yesterday – Discuss. And all these factors and caveats have a place in categorising the result and salving the discomfort.

One point I must make and underline is that many of our players performed to their limit yesterday. Their performances were by no means bad. For long periods of the game we had Chelsea pinned back. The third goal from Fabregas was the mid-point paradigm of “unlucky” and “self-inflicted” ( see above). Possession was in our favour. Chelsea at times wobbled precariously at 1-0 and at 2-0. We made four extremely good chances, one scored, to saved and the other a shade away from the post. To suggest the Ox did not play his heart out, or that Alex Iwobi did not at times shine is nonsense. Danny Welbeck’s late introduction and the sharpened edge he brought all over the pitch gave us a glimpse of what might have, been on another day.

Nevertheless I prefer to embrace defeat for what is was, a reverse against a superior team, as a more optimistic attitude than the choice of indifference, ignorance or sham adopted by many.

And the reason for my optimism is that we shall learn, become stronger, players will return and we shall recover our balance. The first stage of that will be over the next few days in our preparation for the Hull game. I heard this week that Arsene gave the players two days off after the Watford. I anticipate there will be no days off this week as we prepare for what is likely to be a pivotal fixture in our season, domestically and as we move toward the showdown in Munich. There is only hard work available now.

One small silver lining in this morning’s news is the recovery of Mo Elneny from his calf injury to play against Cameroon in the AFCON final at 7 pm tonight. A 44 year old keeper – whatever next ! Good luck to our Egyptian and we look forward to your return with a winner’s medal.

Enjoy your Sunday.

 

 

 

Permalink
96 Comments

Arsenal Versus Chelsea: Avoidance Strategy

Posted by steww on February 4, 2017 in All Posts

Untitled

So we go again. As the old cliché has it having fallen from a bicycle the best thing to do is leap back into the saddle and start pedalling. I’ve always taken a different approach where cycling mishap is concerned preferring to fling the painful contraption into the shed and sulk for a couple of weeks while I wait for the swelling to go down.

Arsène is quoted as saying that in his opinion it is crucial in the aftermath of defeat not to lose the following game. He says the effect on the confidence of a group of players can easily lead to a third consecutive loss and then a catastrophic slide in form. It might be seen as unfortunate therefore that we face the league leaders and clear title favourites away from home today in that very, not to be lost at all costs, follow up match. Couldn’t fate have given us an easier fixture? Watford at home perhaps?

The poet teaches us that for every action there is an opposite and equal reaction, that which goes up must come down, and it’s a funny old game. In this spirit of contradistinction might I tentatively suggest that playing what is in the common vernacular referred to as a six pointer might in fact be the best thing for us?

If our team has aspirations to achieve the very summit of its ambition then poking the champion’s elect sharply in the eye just when we appear to be flat out on the mat is precisely the tonic any self respecting doctor would order. What better way to bounce back and say yar boo sucks to the baying crowd of doubters and detractors?

Of course I would say that. Being no more than an armchair fan I see things in simple monochromatic terms and so defeat to The Hornets is solved at a stroke with victory at Chelsea. In fact even with my poor grasp of the mathematics I’d say that would still put us a point down on where we ought to be. Given, that is, if we’re being honest, most of us would have taken a win on Tuesday and a draw today.

Arsène Wenger, wily old campaigner that he is, hasn’t the luxury of such amateur knee jerk thinking. He plays the long game, focussing always on the next fixture while his great mind simultaneously plans for the season as a whole and the future of his club for years to come. Note that he didn’t say it is vital to win the game which follows a defeat. Merely that it is important not to lose. He is all about stabilising the rocking vessel and getting the thing back on its charted course. The only time the season was won or lost in a single game, at least in my memory, was at Anfield in ’89. Otherwise the title has always been a long war of attrition.

Having said all that I was unnaturally affected by the defeat this week. I suspect that with the depressing state of the world today, the probability of war, the fact of the victory of the forces of darkness within the liberal democracies, I use football as an escape from the depths, the daily dread with which I live. This is of course a ridiculous thing to do but there we are. I hope for a couple of hours of freedom from pessimism and gloom, a chance to pretend that a game is actually sufficiently important to distract me and maybe even cheer me up.

So when my team engages in the most abject first half of wayward, suicidal incompetence as I’ve seen on a football pitch in many years I experience sensations strangely similar to those of the cyclist previously alluded to who finds himself unexpectedly detached from his machine. The heroics of the second half were not quite enough and my ninety minutes of reality avoidance crashed around my ears, which, to stretch the metaphor to breaking point, haven’t stopped ringing since.

Of course I shouldn’t berate myself for using sport as escapism. Surely this is one of its central functions. Didn’t those poor benighted souls climb from the trenches during the unofficial Christmas truce of 1914 and enjoy a kick about in no man’s land? Then just like us once the game was over they returned to taking pot shots at one another.

The problem is, in days like these, when I find myself getting my knickers in a twist over a simple game of football I can’t shake the image of the band on the deck of the Titanic. I feel like Percy Cornelius Taylor agonising over a bum note as the icy water lapped against the end pin of his cello.

I am, I suppose, merely human and as fickle and two faced as every other member of that species. Win today and you’ll probably see me strolling down the side of the A367 with my hat worn at a jaunty angle and whistling a merry tune. Impending and present environmental and political disasters entirely forgotten for the moment as I bask in the vicarious pleasure of a victory I have neither earned nor from which shall I profit.

A funny old game indeed.

Tags: , , , , Permalink
132 Comments

Arsenal: The Abandoned Orphan of Defeat

Posted by anicoll5 on February 1, 2017 in All Posts

i-was-child-free-by-choice-until-i-had-9-days-to-prepare-for-a-baby.jpg

Good Morning Positive Arsenal fans,

Or at least any of you with the energy to raise your head from the pillow and toward the internet after being kept awake by the squalling brat of defeat dumped on our collective footballing doorstep after 13 minutes last night. The nameless little bundle of noise and dribbling misery is quiet now, finally exhausted after bawling its lungs out all night. Inconsolable.

I have looked closely at the mite’s features and it reminds me of someone, but I cannot put my finger on the possible parentage ….. I am sure we all have ideas as to who is responsible ?

Of the game itself if I were structuring the match report like the action the first 300 words today would be random words and names, …. Curses, poor spelling, ……… Crossing out, Yelps of horror and groans of mighty despair,…………. culminating in my banging my head on the keyboard at Nacho’s insanely poor tumble. We all saw it and we know, and Arsene knows, and every player knows it was a bit of a shambles. Fair play to the Hornets though, they played their part with the custard pie that we ran into time after time.

Of the second half of the match review I am able to provide a smoother and organised writing performance, our players unrecognisable from just a few minutes before. I could even go so far as to say some of our players performed “well” in that second portion of the game. Alex Iwobi, in a 50th appearance I hope he forgets about very quickly, being the most obvious Arsenal player who showed us what he can do with the ball. Ultimately though the uplift of that improved effort, and the lifeline goal with MORE than half an hour to go, would lead to a fractured closing sentence of frustration. As occurred in the quarter final last season having allowed Watford a lead we just did not have the guile to get enough goals to retrieve the game. So near as Lucas’ late rocket hammered the bar, but so, so far. Lucas is another man whose late entry exonerates him from responsibility for the evening’s events. We were not, in my opinion, “unlucky” to lose. We were conceivably unlucky not to get a point, but that is as far as my footballing generosity will extend today.

Is it the midweek evening games, is it the rain, or the floodlights ? Whatever it is while last night did not finally torpedo our Premier League ambitions ( thanks to Liverpool and Sunlun) it put a further hole in the vessel, and the water is rising.

Of our visitors a hugely welcome result for under pressure manager Mazzarri whose touchline ranting suggests a man “on the edge”. Of their players Gomes had a good game. One of those large, hard-to-miss keepers who is either very good, or very, very bad and last night he shone. Janmaat also looks about five times the player who fled from Tyneside last season.

Right then, that is me just about done this morning. The little child is gently waking up and cooing happily in his or her cot (I have not looked yet but the smell suggests I should). I shall feed and nurture the little person over the next four days in order that by Saturday lunchtime my new charge  will be fit and able to take the field at the Bridge of Stamford, and perform as they are required to from 12.30 onwards to 2.30, with no lapses.

Enjoy your Wednesday and chin up.

 

FullSizeRender (5).jpg

Permalink
127 Comments

Arsenal Versus Watford: Back To Reality

Posted by steww on January 31, 2017 in All Posts

lucas-p

As all the excitement and furore of the cup draw fades into yesterdays chip paper and the giddy delight of our unexpected routing of the Saints dissipates, so normal service is resumed this evening. Arsenal in the Premier League, at home, expected to win.

The fear of a come down after a big cup victory may be founded in superstition or there could be some statistical evidence to support it. Did we lose after Ludogorets? After Slavia Prague? I can’t recall and it really doesn’t apply here anyway, given the number of expected changes it might as well be two different teams under discussion.

The ease and style with which we demolished Southampton might put a small pressure on the first teamers who will line up tonight, maybe somewhere in the back of their minds they’ll want to show that they too can turn on the style. I doubt it though. These are the kind of projections that amateur writers like me invent for players having no idea what they think on any subject. It is far more likely that being the professionals they are and given the squad based nature of modern football they do not draw the lines as clearly between first and second string.

Take, as an illustration, the form of our Gallic heartthrob. A lot of people like to pretend they know, for a fact, that Giroud responded to the pressure of an in form and free scoring Alexis and that made him play better. Competition for places is the popular mantra. I can far more readily believe that the careful management by Arsène Wenger to ensure his talismanic centre forward was fully rested after a long summer of competitive sport saw him return refreshed, reinvigorated, and simply more able to produce his best.

All this, of course, is simply speculation. None of us know a thing about what goes on in the minds of the players. Not a thing. Their press comments are pure PR and other than that we have nothing to go on. It’s why I get so riled when people tell me that players didn’t think they had to try, or assumed they could just turn up, or didn’t want it badly enough. It seems to me there are games where they’ve given their all and lost or drawn in the end and they’ve been written off in the above terms. On another day precisely the same effort and approach brings a late, late winner and they’re praised for their determination. Two identical performances but people judge only on results and make up the reasons.

So don’t tell me they’ll have a point to prove to our second string nor that Watford will be a push over. None of us can see into another man’s heart, none know his innermost thoughts so it’s best to let these blokes get out there and hoof the ball about a bit and just cheer them on.

I see some speculation that Danny Welbeck will start again tonight. This would be a huge shock. Arsène has the kind of squad he’s always wanted and has no need to risk players returning from long injuries. He has shown nothing but patience as the recently recovered feel their way back to fitness and sharpness, and I would be amazed if Welbeck’s ‘huge offensive potential’ is on display this evening.

Of those who started on Sunday there are a couple you’d expect to see again tonight and three others who made a strong case for inclusion, namely Theo, Lucas and Alex Oxlade-Chamberlain. It is ridiculous to try to rank one above the other, I’m aware of this, but it won’t stop me joining in the fun. Many people want to ignore Theo’s contribution and pretend he did nothing beyond the three touches which put the ball into the net. Likewise they want to elevate Alex’s performance in a more central role into a revelatory experience.

We all have our favourites and we all get excited by specific aspects of someone’s game, it’s human nature and there’s nothing wrong with that. My pick of the three is Lucas Perez. Pure prejudice on my part and in no way do I denigrate the others. I like the intelligence with which he plays the game and I particularly like players who bring out the best in those around them. It’s a gift Giroud has, Mesut has, and it’s one the greatest of them all had in a frightening abundance.

I could watch Lucas’ sublime pass to Danny Welbeck for his opening goal a thousand times and not tire of it. Players who make me gasp and smile are the ones I prize most of all. It’s why I like Aaron and Alex Iwobi, it’s why I loved Tomáš, and it’s why we all revere Dennis Bergkamp. Lucas Perez has the potential to enter such hallowed company. Will Arsène find space for him tonight? Somehow I still doubt it. I can’t see beyond Alexis, Giroud and Theo up front. Similarly it seems unlikely that the Aaron / Coquelin axis will be disrupted, no matter how good The Ox looked at the weekend. But then what do I know?

Make sure you get the dog walked early tonight as kick off is at 7:45. I’ve been down and pre-recorded my radio show so I’ll be here to share the excitement. If you’re at the match I trust you’ll be in good voice, if not I hope you find a good quality stream without the pain of the English commentary. That’s all from me, I’m off to check on my compost bin.

Tags: , , , , , , Permalink
53 Comments

A 206% Increase in Penalties vs AFC Proves Bias

Posted by shotta_gooner on January 30, 2017 in All Posts

mark-twain-it-s-easier-to-fool-people-than-to-convince-them-they-have-been-fooled

The Refs Are Biased (Part 2)

To conclude my two-part series on referee bias, I have taken my inspiration from the great American philosopher and writer Mark Twain.

In my initial piece I was categorical. Based on penalties awarded:

“The unbiased data for the past 20 years is very clear; of all the top teams in the Premier League Arsenal is the least favoured team by Premier League officials.”

Yet there remains great skepticism and reluctance to accept the stone, cold logic of the data. Apparently there is an enduring belief that the referees are acting without bias, that they are honest arbiters doing a thankless job under difficult circumstances. Apparently we accept the gospel of the mainstream media (BBC) that the formation of the Professional Game Match Officials Board (PGMOB) in 2001 meant:

“….they will also be more accountable regarding their performances in matches.”

And lead to:

“….improving the overall standard of refereeing.”

In today’s final installment, I will demonstrate based on data of Penalties-Against (PA) that Arsenal is the most penalized among the top clubs in the Premier League and by a very wide margin. In making these decisions the PGMOB has been far from accountable and the promised improvements in the standard of refereeing has been a singular failure.

The data for the past 20 years confirm that the traditional top-four clubs in the premier league (AFC, CFC, LFC and MUFC) have the lowest PA compared to the rest. This is exemplified by the first 10 years of the Wenger era. It is logical that during this era when Arsenal and United dominated the League they would have the lowest PA, with MUFC marginally ahead within a relatively narrow range of 0.2 goals. LFC had the highest PA which makes sense since they have been less successful in winning titles although averaging 3rd in league position. Also note that during those first 10 years the top-four clubs all had less than the league average PA of 3.4. Below I will  demonstrate the significance of the latter information.

1st 10-Year League AFC MUFC LFC CFC
Total 684 16 14 30 24
Club Avg 3.4 1.6 1.4 3.0 2.4

In the second 10-years was a 38% increase in penalties awarded by the referees compared to the first 10. Amazingly, not only did Arsenal experience 206% increase in penalties awarded against the club but the average number of penalties was higher than the average for all clubs in the premier league, 4.9 vs 4.7.

2nd 10-Year League AFC MUFC LFC CFC
Total 943 49 30 40 30
Club Avg 4.7 4.9 3 4 3

Meanwhile the percentage increase in PAs for all other clubs was substantially less.

1st vs 2nd 10-Year League AFC MUFC LFC CFC
Increase 1.3 3.3 1.6 1.0 1.2
% Increase 38% 206% 143% 33% 66%

The second greatest increase was for United at 143%. But at 3-against they are well within the league average. In the context of refereeing, it is apparent in the post-Ferguson era the officials now have a greater willingness to make penalty calls against them, when before they seem to be in abject fear of the United boss. For those who think this is merely an opinion, note in Ferguson’s last year (12/13) on his way to the title, the refs awarded zero penalties against United. In a team with two notoriously physical central defenders, Vidic and Ferdinand, who were arguably past their best, this was an amazing statistical achievement.

Back to the main point. According to the unbiased data, PL referees over the past 10 years found AFC to be not only the worst of all the traditional top-four clubs in penalty-area defending but that it had been surpassed by LFC, a club whose average league position declined from 3rd in the first 10 years to 5th in the second 10. In total, Liverpool averaged only 1 more PA vs 2.3 more for the Gunners, a 130% difference.  Hello!

1st vs 2nd 10-Year League AFC MUFC LFC CFC
Increase 1.3 3.3 1.6 1.0 1.2
% Increase 38% 206% 143% 33% 66%

Yet over the past 10 seasons, based on mean averages, in every statistical category, except for Draws (D) and Goals Against (GA), Liverpool was inferior to Arsenal.

Pos W D L F A GD Points
AFC 3 21 10 7 71 39 32 73
LFC 5 19 10 9 66 39 26 67

Given AFC’s general league superiority over LFC, it defies any statistical justification for the referees to award 130% more PAs against the Gunners compared to the Merseysiders.

Furthermore, if the referees are calling 38% more penalties then over the long term it should be distributed according to the league ranking of the club, as it was in the first 10 years. That is an iron-law of statistics. If not there is evidence of clear bias.

As someone with a little knowledge of how the federal government measures fair lending violations against protected classes in the USA, a prima facie case could be made of “disparate treatment” of Arsenal by the PGMOB. Many banks and lending institutions have been heavily fined and sanctioned for such apparent bias. Who holds the PGMOB accountable?

Let me take this analysis a little further. If we expand the group of top-clubs to five, to accommodate the rise of Manchester City who were basically a yo-yo club until the advent of external money in 2006 allowing them make massive spending on new players. Virtually overnight they became a top club in the premier league and the 3rd best in penalty-area defending, overhauling Arsenal. Is it justifiable?

2nd 10-Year League AFC MUFC LFC CFC MCFC
Total 943 49 30 40 30 33
Club Avg 4.7 4.9 3.0 4.0 3.0 3.3

Skeptics and critics of my findings in Part I, that they were getting more favorable treatment than AFC in penalties-for, argued that City simply had better attackers. Yet for much of those years a number of their offensive-players were ex-Arsenal such as Adebayor and Nasri and they had managers like Hughes and Mancini who were arguably more conservative than Arsene Wenger. Yet they averaged 1 penalty more, 6.4 vs 5.4.

In the PA department the difference was even greater. Within 10 years they averaged 3.3 vs Arsenal’s 4.9, a 1.6 goal difference. Were their defenders vastly superior to Arsenal’s, sufficient to gain a significant edge in penalty area defending?

Au contraire. Many of those years among their defenders were ex-Arsenal such as Kolo Toure, Gael Clichy and Bacary Sagna. So in retrospect the personnel was relatively similar. Furthermore, in the last three years under review they were managed by Pellegrini who was arguably as attacking in team setup as Arsene Wenger. Yet since 2006, there is only one season when they had more PAs than Arsenal.

In comparing the PAs conceded by both clubs in the past 10 years, I was struck by the data for 15/16 season.  The referees only awarded one penalty against them despite their having disasters-in-waiting such as Mangala, Otamendi and Demichelis as central defenders. Collectively they were poor, conceding 41 goals compared to Arsenal’s 36. My recollection was of them mis-tackling and clumping opponents in their own box and the PGMOB letting them get away with it. Yet both teams ended up with equal number of penalties against. Can’t stop Shaking My Head (SMH).

Year AFC MCFC
15/16 1 1
14/15 3 4
13/14 6 1
12/13 6 2
11/12 4 3
10/11 9 4
09/10 7 7
08/09 5 4
07/08 5 4
06/07 3 3

In analyzing the data it is significant to note for most of the last 10 years, premier league officials have been under the leadership of Mike Riley (the main actor in ensuring Arsenal’s loss in Game 50), in his capacity as manager of the PGMOB. While Riley’s bias in Game 50 was manifest, he is no longer a referee and we have no available evidence to prove how his past bias currently affects his subordinates. However what is evident from the data is institutionally they are increasingly biased towards the big-spending clubs. As I demonstrated in Part I the big money clubs, except Arsenal, are increasingly and constantly getting the Penalties-For at the expense of the smaller clubs.

“Gone are the days when a mid-table team, between 1997 and 2006, would be ranked first in penalties awarded; such as Southampton (97/98), Middlesbrough (99/00), Newcastle (00/01, 01/02 and 03/04) and Crystal Palace (04/05).”

Seemingly the refs have consciously or sub-consciously internalized the message that, to succeed in the PGMOB, one must favor the big clubs which, except for Leicester in 15/16, now permanently monopolize the top-positions in the league. What is rarely discussed in the mainstream media  is the prime reason for the PGMOB’s establishment was to make refereeing a lucrative full-time occupation. According to the BBC report in 2001, previously referenced, former FIFA referee Roger Milford who advocated the PGMOB stated:

“There are footballers out there earning £20,000 to £30,000 a week – and that is at the bottom end of the scale,”

“So referees deserve to earn the sums being talked about.”

If a lucrative career is the prime driver of a full-time referee then it is consistent with human nature to have little desire to make seemingly controversial decisions against a big-moneyed club which could potentially be a career ender.

That would explain why, in last week’s game between Chelsea and Hull,  when the underdogs were already one goal up, there was arguably a clear case for a penalty against the Blues which would have given them a crucial two-goal advantage. This appeal was vigorously waived off by the referee. It may also explain why the referee studiously ignored the foul by Chelsea in the build-up to their first goal.

Is it any wonder we rarely see any big upsets of the big boys by the lower level teams especially in the second-half of the seasons? Does this explain why there are reports of a significant fall off in attendance and viewership of premier league matches especially those involving mid and lower-level teams? Why attend or give these matches any attention when the results are already pre-ordained?

On the basis of the evident disparate treatment of Arsenal by the refs when it comes to penalties and moreso an increasingly systemic bias against the smaller clubs, I am forced to revise my assessment of the chances of Arsenal overhauling Chelsea in the run-in for the title. When I did my first An Open Letter to the Arsenal First Team blog, I estimated a 50:50 chance which meant it was uncertain and unpredictable statistically. Now I am convinced it ranges between 5%-10% which, should it happen, would make it miracle. My eyes have now turn to the cups as our most realistic chance of any silverware.

PS: Thanks to usamazaka at Positively Arsenal who provided the source information on the founding of the PGMOB.

Postscipt

A legitimate question was asked in the comments section of this blog why I excluded Spurs from the analysis. Because they were never a consistently top-four team I eliminated them so as to compare like-with-like between the 1st and 2nd-10 years. To eliminate any suspicion that the data is being fudged to prove a point, below is the PA numbers for THFC:

Total Avg
1st -10 years 42 4.2
2nd – 10 years 44 4.4

The striking thing is, being a markedly inferior team compared to Arsenal, never ever exceeding AFC in league position for the past 20 years, we have a remarkable statistic that for the past 10 years they had less PA vs Arsenal; 44 compared to 49.

I rest my case your honor.

 

Tags: , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , Permalink
39 Comments

Arsenal breeze at St Mary’s

Posted by anicoll5 on January 29, 2017 in All Posts

dfc1d5068a054b20041723da5c6c55eb

Maidin mhaith Positivistas,

That was easy on the eye eh ? All the more so because, at 5.30 yesterday evening I rather fancied we were in for (another) battle at St Mary’s and I would have signed the form accepting the draw with no prompting. Saints riding on a wave of achievement after their Anfield win and a solid home record. Arsene choosing to rest a couple of our bigger guns. It looked “difficult”. After about ten minutes I thought both sides had started well, speedy movement and pass well struck. Both looking for that “opening” and important first goal. And yet by the 36th minute the contest was over. It was damage-control from the hosts in the second half and even that they fell down on toward the end. 5-0 for goodness sake, and five goals with Giroud at the shops, Ozil God knows where and Sanchez only allowed 25 minutes. By 7.20 I had watched THE most one sided game we have engaged in since squashing Basel.

Ultimately it is players, and what they do and don’t do individually and collectively, that decide games. Our youngsters at St Mary’s were Ainsley, Jeff and Rob all enjoyed excellent evenings. Did any of them put a foot wrong al evening ? Well if they did they immediately chased back and put the error right. It probably should not be but the job did Jeff the middle of the park was a revelation. For a youngster ( he just turned 19 last week) it was a confident, strong performance. I had seen in his occasional other games on the wings he has a good touch and a knack of finding a spare yard of space. To manage that in a crowded midfield as he did for 72 minutes is much more of a challenge, and I see he can tackle. I have no idea what Arsene has in mind for Jeff, probably a season on loan, but he is already an interesting player, a proverbial football work in progress. With a few more games under his belt, a little more confidence in his stride, he could be a mighty asset. We shall see.

Having extolled the excellence of Reine-Adelaide picking out other notable contributions in such a crushing win is difficult. The Ox definitely deserves praise for a creative midfield effort that cut Saints to shreds all evening. Danny’s opening goals announced his holiday is over and he is back in town and pressing for a start. I really enjoyed Lucas and his 90 minutes of quality last night, not just a finisher but some lovely link play and touches in the final third. As I said elsewhere Lucas would walk into all but one or two PL sides at the moment. Mustafi had a good evening. The appropriate word for the German is influential.

I cannot say much in Saints’ defence. As one of the commentators said last night perhaps they can only cope with one Cup per season. I appreciate they had injury problems and needed to rotate but the team that performed so well against us at the Ems in the League Cup was not so different from the players Puel had available last night. Yochida, Bertrand, Redmond and Tadic were sat on their bench – and did Fraser Foster really need a weekend off ? The “fatigue” suffered by goalkeepers is a purely second decade of the 21st century phenomenon. I imagine, despite their good week, the home fans felt a bit let down by the thrashing.

Just a short break until we take on Watford on Tuesday. I think almost, bar Santi, Arsene has a full squad to choose from. A few dilemmas perhaps ?

commut

Enjoy Sunday!

Permalink
75 Comments

Arsenal Versus Southampton: Under New Management

Posted by steww on January 28, 2017 in All Posts

steve-bould

So Steve Bould steps into the hot seat this afternoon. He must be chuffed. Imagine managing the greatest team in the history of the FA Cup as they step out for their fourth round tie. No one has played more finals than us. No one has won the thing more often. Mr Bould has a lot of history to weigh him down but he has a great and proud tradition to buoy him up.

The disaffected fans who have for years been calling for a change in the Arsenal dugout have finally got their way. With Arsène facing an inconsistently harsh punishment for his instinctive actions of self defence against an out of control fourth official, we have lost his guiding and talismanic presence during this and the following three games.

I shall say no more on the subject because I don’t want to upset those who think he deserves this ban. Or that Taylor acted appropriately in provoking the response which led to the unfortunate incident. I won’t convince you and you won’t in a million years convince me so let’s just draw a veil over the whole sorry business.

Southampton are a good side. They will provide us with a proper contest today as they always do. The Saint’s heroics against Liverpool were either symptoms of an ongoing Mersyside malaise or a signal that the south coast club is coming into some decent form. Perhaps a little from column A and a little from column B.

That we will rest players was never in doubt and therefore hardly a talking point. That Southampton will also be at less than full strength is down to a formidable injury list. One fan tweeted yesterday that they’ll be without ten players including Ward-Prowse , Rodriguez, Van Dijk, Hesketh, Austin. So neither side will be at full strength and the big debate among Arsenal fans is whether we’ll see our skipper back in the starting line up or not.

I am a big fan of our big German and would be delighted to see him alongside Gabriel but then I like the look of young Noddy Holding too. With four highly experienced centre backs in front of him, these matches represent the youngster’s only realistic chance for first team football, so it’ll be tough for him to miss out. When you join a huge club that is the chance you take, he need only look to Alex Iwobi and Hector Bellerin to see that the gap can be bridged and so he ought to remain positive.

One imagines Alex will resume his understudy role if Mesut is rested and that either Theo or Lucas will start – and possibly both of them. Another player knocking on the door and wondering if an abysmal run of untimely injuries has robbed him of his chance is Alex Oxlade-Chamberlain.

I may be a drooling, ageing imbecile but I seem to recall Arsène suggesting, some years ago, that AOC could end up playing in central midfield. In fact I’m certain of it so we mustn’t discount the possibility especially with Santi, Xhaka and Elneny all missing, Aaron still finding his way back after a long lay off and Coquelin recently injured.

The permutations are manifold and we can all have fun speculating or we can wait for the club to publish the team sheet, whatever floats your boat. One thing is certain the venerable competition still holds a very special place in the hearts of the fans. I was talking to a Man United supporting acquaintance yesterday. He and I agreed, with one notable exception, on absolutely nothing when football inevitably rose to the top of the agenda.

We both agreed that in spite of the greater rewards and prestige associated with the Champions and Premier League titles, there is something particular about the FA Cup. Something nostalgic and thrilling which trick the League Cup has never managed to master. Something which gets the heart beating faster in a way that the long haul of a league competition cannot match. I like the way we climb from the trenches of the attritional war that is our usual fixture schedule and face off in a straight forward, winner takes all bare knuckle scrap.

Of course I don’t need to tell you how important the FA Cup is. We all have our special memories both heart warming and heart breaking. For me, the first huge Arsenal moment in my supporting career was Charlie George’s goal in the final in 1971. I have since then endured Wrexham, Watford and Blackburn, suffered Liverpool’s horrible victory in the 2001 final, and don’t even mention Roger Osborne or Trevor Brooking. Each has burned a scar into the confused, emotional area of my psyche which processes my obsession with football.

However much those and other cup exits have hurt they pale when I recall Santi’s free kick, Ray Parlour’s sublime strike versus Chelsea, Anelka’s cushioned take down and consummate finish against Newcastle, the fireworks at the end of the ’79 final and of course Aaron’s moment of magic to bring the cup back after such a long absence.

So today can we perhaps forget our battles with each other, with officials, bureaucrats and other fans? Instead why don’t we just revel in the countless memories the cup has brought us down through the years? What springs to mind when you first hear the words FA Cup? Why not share your thoughts. Or not. It’s a free country after all.

I’m off to check the water levels in my pond, I’ll see you here for five thirty.

Tags: , , , , , Permalink
41 Comments

The Refs Are Biased (Part I)

Posted by shotta_gooner on January 26, 2017 in All Posts

george-orwell

During the course of last Sunday’s match versus Burnley it struck me how little data is publicly available on the role of the referees in deciding the fate of the Premier League title. Major game-changing decisions were made at key points by Mr. Moss and his officiating crew that significantly tilted the balance against the Gunners, such as; failing to call the penalty for the foul against Mustafi, the Xhaka red-card, the penalty against Coquelin and the controversial sending-off of Wenger. The fact that Arsenal were able to snatch a win from the jaws of dropping two vital points cannot cover up the fact that Moss was on the verge of causing a mortal blow to Arsenal’s chances  of a significant title challenge, minimal as they currently are. Chelsea establishing a 10-point advantage, in their current form, would be almost insurmountable in my opinion.

It strikes me that the role of the referees in punishing or favoring a team is either studiously ignored by the press for reasons best known to themselves or simply underestimated. In a recent tweet I described the situation as two unaccountable institutions dominating the premier league; one fixes the game and the other fixes the narrative.

For me, the penny dropped during the that fateful game in 2005 when referee Mike Riley blatantly corrupted the concept of unbiased officiating by doing everything in his power to favor Manchester United as they ended  Arsenal’s historic 49 game unbeaten run.  Among Riley’s many exploits was the unpunished multiple hacking by the Nevilles of Arsenal’s potential danger-man, then in-form Jose Antonio Reyes and the phantom penalty granted to Wayne Rooney who, untouched, dived like a swan over the leg of Sol Campbell. Thanks to YouTube this historic chapter of refereeing infamy is easily available for all to see. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=3P-pCRhFY9M

Any illusions that Riley’s conduct was without the approval of the English football establishment was to be soon disabused. After a decent interval had elapsed, at the end of the 2008-09 season he retired as a professional referee and immediately thereafter was appointed manager of the Professional Game Match Officials Board (PGMOB), where he is now in charge of all the officials, such as Mr. Moss and his crew, who can rightly be regarded as the inheritors of Mr. Riley’s legacy.

Yet we continue to have prattle by the media, premier league officials and by naive, feckless fans that the referees are doing a honest job under difficult circumstances and that their decisions even out in the end. What a load of bollocks!

I focused on penalty decisions which are measureable and have a clear and decisive impact on results as an average of 80% of all penalties is scored. The unbiased data for the past 20 years is very clear; of all the top teams in the premier league Arsenal is the least favored team by premier league officials.

YR FOR AFC MUFC LFC CFC
15/16 91 2 3 2 5
14/15 83 7 5 6 5
13/14 86 3 5 12 7
12/13 86 6 7 6 11
11/12 100 3 11 6 5
10/11 105 7 5 7 8
09/10 111 4 8 3 12
08/09 84 5 4 6 2
07/08 89 6 9 5 7
06/07 108 11 6 7 4
05/06 76 7 3 6 4
04/05 79 3 3 4 6
03/04 82 7 4 9 4
02/03 83 4 8 6 3
01/02 58 5 5 3 4
00/01 66 2 3 4 4
99/00 70 3 4 3 1
98/99 52 4 2 8 4
97/98 56 1 2 5 5
96/97 62 7 3 1 5
1627 97 100 109 106
81.35 4.85 5 5.45 5.3

Liverpool is top of the charts with an average 5.45 penalties per season followed by Chelsea and Manchester United. Arsenal is the least averaging 4.85 penalties.

The data is even more staggering for the past 10 years. I have expanded the number of top teams to six (6) to include the “nouveau riche” Manchester City.

 YR FOR AFC MUFC LFC CFC THFC MCFC
15/16 91 2 3 2 5 5 8
14/15 83 7 5 6 5 5 8
13/14 86 3 5 12 7 6 7
12/13 86 6 7 6 11 0 6
11/12 100 3 11 6 5 5 8
10/11 105 7 5 7 8 8 9
09/10 111 4 8 3 12 3 5
08/09 84 5 4 6 2 3 7
07/08 89 6 9 5 7 7 2
06/07 108 11 6 7 4 7 4
943 54 63 60 66 49 64
94.3 5.4 6.3 6 6.6 4.9 6.4

Compared to the previous 10 years the average number of penalties per season has increased by almost 50%, from 68.4 to 98.3. Clearly the referees are now having a more significant impact on the game by awarding one-half more penalties than prior years. Yet Arsenal remains in the lower reaches among top-teams at 5.4 penalties per season. Only North London rivals Tottenham are lower at 4.9. The most dramatic development is that the moneyed teams are getting more penalties in their favor led by the wealthy Chelsea, followed by City and United in that order. Surely this is a case of “follow-the-money” as would be the mantra of any unbiased investigation by law enforcement or any regulatory body.

What is not evident in the table above is gone are the days when a mid-table team, between 1997 and 2006, would be ranked first in penalties awarded, such as; Southampton (97/98), Middlesbrough (99/00), Newcastle (00/01, 01/02 and 03/04) and Crystal Palace (04/05). In the latter years the top-ranked team for penalties has been mostly City, followed by Chelsea and United. Arsenal was an exception in 05/06 and 06/07 and since then it has been downhill with one exception.

The most striking departure from the norm of the refs giving traditional big-teams most of the penalties was last season when Leicester was awarded an unprecedented 13, a record for the past 20 years. As I have observed on twitter this is a clear case of the officials choosing the PL winners and losers as Vardy in particular simply needed to wrap his foot round a defender and throw himself  to the ground in the penalty area to earn the decision. As things now stand, the disparity is not as great as three teams are on top (Liverpool, City and Spurs) have all been granted six (6) penalties. Arsenal is close behind with five (5). No wonder the top-six is so closely bunched together, apart from Chelsea who are way out in front. Clearly if the refs award penalties in an unbiased fashion it will not give one team, i.e. Leicester last year, such a decisive advantage.

After last December’s game with City when Leroy Sane clearly scored an offside goal as evident on tv, a technological aid which is easily available to match officials if the powers that be would allow it, Arsene Wenger remarked:

“… as it is well known, the referees are protected very well like the lions in the zoo, so we have to live with those decisions.”

Maybe Arsene has to live with it because he as a manager cannot highlight the bias and disparity in officiating lest he be accused of bringing the game into disrepute. What excuse do we as fans have for not protesting the nonsense that currently prevails where widely-used technology is unavailable officials to help decide game changing decisions like penalties and offsides?

In Part II I will share with you the complementary data on the penalties against. Trust me, the data is equally as damning.

Tags: , , , , , , , , , , , , Permalink
216 Comments

Arsenal: A 98 Claret – unique vintage

Posted by anicoll5 on January 22, 2017 in All Posts

Cqsy0rFW8AAMvCV.jpg

Good afternoon Positives,

Got your breath back yet ?

Nor have I – What an afternoon !

Of the game itself ? In contrast to a number of recent games we started well, brisk, with sharp passing and movement and throughout the first half it seemed just a matter of ‘when’ we would crack the Burnley defence and certainly not ‘if’. Ozil looked fitter and more mobile today than he has been in months and Iwobi’s touch on the ball was superb at times. Fair play to our visitors, they did more than put ten men behind the ball but we were clearly a yard faster than them and a split second quicker. They clung on, no doubt slightly relieved to trot into the dressing room still even.

A predictable first half then gave me no clue as to the tumult that was to follow. There was not even a small cloud nor the beat of a butterfly’s wing to alert me to the 45 53 minutes of imminent uproar, to enjoy, endure and finally emerge from bruised but triumphant. It was a game to savour, but only with hindsight. To live through it was to tour the circles of footballing Hell.

The second half had so many pivotal incidents, an almost unique catalogue of controversy and contortion. You could sense after 50+ minutes, and still with no goal, we were beginning to get a bit more desperate, and not in bad way. Events unfolded!

First, we had the Mustafi “penalty”, and then we had the Mustafi goal. A good finish from the influential German and, in the context of the game, what should have been the decisive strike. Burnley’s heads dropped. The visitors appalling away record ( P9 L8 D1) heading for another frustrated notch BUT NO! Within five minutes we had a third twist of the sunlit drama;

Granit, Granit, Granit, Granit, ……………Granit! You can’t do that, you just can’t, without risking the red. My little Swiss chum, the officials have their eye on you. I know Mr Wenger will be discussing the matter with you and your parents this week.

From smoothly controlling the game with a deserved lead we were firmly on the back foot from the 65th minute calamity. The light blues clearly felt they could get something and it required a solid defensive performance hold them at bay. But we did. They never really opened us up. Kosc always had a boot in or Monreal his head in the way, Petr calmed the scene. By the time we got to the 90th minute , and even with 7 minutes added time to suffer, I thought we had the points, a scruffy 1-0.

BUT NO! Two penalties in time added on. Two for goodness sake. Le Coq clipping Barnes’ knee, much to the apparent mortification of Mr Wenger, then Mee’s studs connecting with our French defender’s temple. Both correctly awarded by Moss, both despatched by shots straight down the middle of the goal, with the Chilean’s panenka the work of an artist very sure of his brush strokes.

Of our players?  I thought Ramsey was outstanding. the Welshman had been playing well but the departure of Xhaka called for him to put in a decisive performance in midfield, to be the BIG player, and he put in that work. At the front Sanchez had a good afternoon even by his own exacting standard. As referred to above his slotting the winner in the 98th minute in such an important game is the work of a professional with no fear – magnificent.

Of the opposition ? The game ended with Dyche frothing at the mouth, and I admit I felt just a twinge of pity for the ( by then) ashen faced Burnley supremo, so close on two occasions this season, but no cigar at all. He must dream of Laurent Koscielny, poor man.

I am calm again now.

So on to Cup glory on the South Coast after a pleasant week of footballing inactivity. Enjoy the remainder of your Sunday.

Permalink