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Will Arsenal Emphasize Attack or Defense?

Posted by shotta_gooner on August 14, 2017 in All Posts

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Premier League football was back with a vengeance last weekend and after Arsenal conceded three goals to Leicester, on its way to an exciting come-from-behind victory, there was the usual angst among casual fans as well as the professional pundits as to whether Wenger should focus on a more attacking or defensive set up to truly challenge for the title.

As any close follower of the club is aware the debate has been raging ad-infinitum, waxing and waning. It took a more recent grip between March and April this year when the club conceded three goals to West Brom, Liverpool and Crystal Palace in a spate of excruciating defeats. This preceded a switch to three at the back in mid April and a return to defensive solidity as the club won 8 successive PL games as well as victories vs huge opponents (Man City and Chelsea) in both the FA cup semi-final and final.

Wenger in pre-season pledged a continuation of the same formation for the 2017-18 campaign but in the Leicester game questions about the efficacy of three at the back refused to go away. Having fallen behind 2-3 Wenger decided around the 70 minute mark to ditch the starting formation, going 4-3-3, ridding the team of its only specialized central defender and focusing on a far more attacking group of players. Does this portend a return to a more conventional attacking formation?

Never one to shy away from controversy, our own @BlackburnGeorge threw his hat into the ring with a customary acerbic tweet:

https://twitter.com/Blackburngeorge/status/896376238964711425

George has a very good point and, as is his custom, he is not shy to assert it. Unlike the head-in-the-sand bleatings of most members of the pundit class (on both sides of the Atlantic), he recognizes that football administrators have gradually modified the rules of the game to give advantage to the attacking team.

The decline of the offside trap and more goal-scoring

Jonathan Wilson, one of the finest observers of the modern game, in 2010 concluded that modern changes to the offside rule:

“….has generated a climate in which some of the most beautiful football ever played has been produced.”

I will quote him extensively:

In 2005 that the most radical changes came, and the switch to a law that, 142 years after it was first formulated, at last seems to have got it right. First, it was clarified that a player is offside only if a part of his body with which he is legally able to play the ball is beyond the penultimate defender. That, realistically, is academic, for no linesman can make a snap judgment as to whether, say, it is upper arm or torso he can see protruding beyond the defender, but what the change did was to shift the benefit of any doubt yet further in favour of the forward.

More significant, though was the rewording of what it means to be interfering: “Interfering with play means playing or touching the ball passed or touched by a team-mate.” A later amendment clarified that: “A player in an offside position may be penalised before playing or touching the ball if, in the opinion of the referee, no other team-mate in an onside position has the opportunity to play the ball.

“If an opponent becomes involved in the play and if, in the opinion of the referee, there is potential for physical contact, the player in the offside position shall be penalised for interfering with an opponent.”

In Wilson’s opinion the law delegitimized the offside trap as evident by the data:

Opta stats show that in 1997-98 there were 7.8 offsides per game in the Premier League, after which there was a fairly steady decline to 6.3 in 2005-06. Since the new legislation came into force, there has been a further decline, to 4.8 so far this (2010-11) season.

Wilson notes that while the old offside rule was to prevent goalhanging and prevent the game becoming about endless hoofs into the danger area where a goalkeeper would battle with a handful of forwards who could legitimately stand straight in front of him, recent rule changes go further.

The modern law stops that, but brilliantly it does it without the side-effect of legitimising the offside trap. And that must, even at its most basic level, be a good thing. Surely nobody, not even George Graham, goes to a game thinking: “Hmm, I hope they play some good offsides today?” Making defenders defend, forcing them to mark or block or intercept or tackle, has to be a good thing.

It must be emphasized that since 2005 there have been several tweaks to the offside rule further liberating the forwards and making the offside trap even more difficult to implement.

Most recent was in 2016 as FIFA amended the law to clarify that an offside player who is not ‘actively involved in play’ is not committing an offence as long as he is not interfering with play. Again this was an attempt to encourage attacking football.

“Interfering with play means playing or touching the ball passed or touched by a team-mate,”

A player could still be offside though if the referee think he is interfering with an opponent, such as blocking a goalkeeper’s view, or has gained an advantage.

Is it any wonder that many ex-pros from the George Graham era, like Arsenal’s Lee Dixon, currently a pundit for NBC, cannot come to grips with modern day defending. The best he can do is grumble and snipe that “back in my day” we had “real leaders” who would “point and shout”. Most of all, the old crones cannot reconcile themselves to the fact that a modern team must emphasize attacking football and score goals rather than a conservative tactic of full backs who rarely break beyond the half-way line and a back four protected by two deep-lying central midfielders. Again George is spot on:

https://twitter.com/Blackburngeorge/status/896373795115716609

League Winners Are Scoring More Goals

The trend in the Premier League when comparing 1996-2006 to 2006-17 indicate that increasingly the winners have to score more goals season-to-season if they are to win the league.

Premier League Winner – Mean Statistic
1996-2006 2006-2017 Change % Change
GF 77 84 7 9%
GA 32 32 0 0%
GD 45 52 7 16%
Premier League Winner – Median Statistic
1996-2006 2006-2017 Change % Change
GF 75 83 8 11%
GA 34 32 -2 -6%
GD 45 52 7 16%

Both the mean and median statistic indicate that in the last 10 years or so, since the changes in the offside rule, winning PL teams are scoring 9-11 percent more goals compared to the first ten years when Wenger started managing. In contrast, there has been no  increase in the Goals Against data from one era to the next. In fact on a media basis GA has declined by 6%, suggesting champion teams are better at defending despite the declining importance of the offside trap.

Compare the league winners with Arsenal over the same period:

Arsenal – Mean Statistic
1996-2006 2006-2017 Change % Change
GF 72 70 -2 -3%
GA 33 38 5 15%
GD 38 33 -5 -13%
Arsenal – Median Statistic
1996-2006 2006-2017 Change % Change
GF 71 71 0 0%
GA 35 37 2 6%
GD 40 31 -9 -23%

Unlike the top teams in the Premier League, in the 10 years since the big change in the offside rule, Arsenal’s goal-scoring has either remained stagnant or even declined slightly using the mean average. More concerning, Goals Against has increased between 6% and 15% depending on which metric is used. The end result is a sharp decline in Goal Difference from the past era to the present ranging from -13% (mean average) to -23% (median average).

The data is crystal clear. Arsenal has considerable ground to cover if it is to improve on its better resourced rivals such as Chelsea, Man City and Man United who, apart from Leicester in 15/16, have monopolized the league title since 2006.

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Arsenal V LCFC – An Alternate View

Posted by pedantic George @arseblagger on August 13, 2017 in All Posts

A bonus blog from  arse_or_brain

I’ve just watched the entirety of the game  for the first time after I’ve heard all the comments from the twitteraty and uber bloggers, its a new and interesting experience for me. I was told the defending was comical, Holding was awful and is just not ready, Sead was perfect and can do no wrong, Nacho will never make a CB as long as he has a hole up his arse, Mesut was invisible, Cech was finished two years ago, Xhaka and Mo are the worst CM pairing ever and never play the ball forward, it’s a fact that the Ox is a better WB than Hector and basically we got out of jail and were very lucky.
Well all this and much more was bollocks on a large scale.
Let’s take these assumptions (taken on emotion from an a very emotional game) one by one.
There were errors in the build up two all three goals and the whole team and coaches will be very disappointed with aspects of all of them, however if you take the defending overall and put it in perspective for the 95 minutes the defending wasn’t that bad. Leicester win the ball back and launch it forward supporting in numbers very quickly, maybe the quickest in the league at this and they won it using just that system beating everyone except us. For the most part we stopped them doing this winning the ball back as soon as we had lost it or intercepting the balls forward to eliminate danger. Many of the players highlighted for having bad games were actually very good at this. Leicester cross first time and we did struggle stopping them doing this however only for two crosses in the whole game did they cause trouble again hardly comical.
Young Holding didn’t have his best game but he did well in lots of areas and is as good if not better than the young Stones and Cahill when their good performances also came with mistakes. Arsene has already said he accepts that playing young players will come with mistakes and that is part of their progress and will help them develop into brilliant players as he will take the gamble.
Sead had a great game, he is a beast aggressive, fast, direct and loves to be involved. However the uber bloggers need to watch the game again if they think he is untouchable. He made several errors (like Holding) and in both halves he tried to play the ball from the centre of his own box, giving the ball away in a dangerous area, the second one led to the corner that we conceded the third goal from. Yes we should have defended the corner better but we also shouldn’t be giving away needless corners.
Like I said Leicester style means they will always do well away from home because of their lightning counters, this means the middle pin of the three CBs has to be on his game at all times. If you look at the way we conceded the goals only the second could be possibly levelled at Nacho and overall I thought he had a good game. When you take this in conjunction with some of his other displays, saying he is not a CB is lunacy.
Mesut was quite and struggled early on when leicester harassed us quickly. This may have been due to his knock in midweek and in hindsight (which managers don’t have) maybe Iwobi might have been the better starter. As the game went on and the opposition tired and paid for their style and effort in the first half the mystro started waving his magic wand. invisible my arse.
Like Holding Cech didn’t have one of his better games and thought he could of done better with the first two goals, however these mistakes were exaggerated by the fact that leicester only had three shots on target and he had no chance for redemption. Although sometimes I’am concerned about his distribution and his tendency to be static on crosses how can anyone say he is finished when when at times last season he was simply outstanding. I think fans say players are finished because if they say it long enough eventually they will be correct, unfortunately for these idiots it can take years.
The midfield pairing were very effective in this game, stopping endless counters, keeping the tempo up all game and I lost count of the amount of diagonal balls played to the wide front men or our wing backs. They did lose the ball sometimes when the understanding wasn’t quite there but this was the first game and that will be eliminated.Overall they took control of the game and limited leicester to small pickings.
The Ox is a very good player and going forward he can be devastating but he quite often loses concentration and lets players slip in behind (like the first goal). Like Shotts has highlighted many times people who present their opinions as facts are actually foolish.
Now for the getting out of jail bit. I have long said that pundits, journos and fans comment on the score and not on the game and this is the case for this game. Overall we played very well keeping the tempo up throughout and totally exhausting our opponents. The mistakes made by the whole side and not just the defence kept leicester in the game (who took their chances excellently by the way). If you look at the amount of times the ball bounced around their box falling to their players more by luck than judgement you can see they were hanging on by a thread and this was the first half not just the last twenty minutes. So they were lucky to come off at half time at 2-2 and although they again went to the lead they were retreating deeper and deeper and looking more and more exhausted. So in the end it wasn’t a matter of getting out of jail but Justice being served (as was the suspected handballs for both sides which ol mikey got correct on both occasions).
The errors can be cut out and when Arsene watches this back he will pleased with flow of play this early in the season, a positive the uber bloggers could well do to note. I say to them all watch the game not the result.

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Arsenal: Scream if you want to go faster

Posted by anicoll5 on August 12, 2017 in All Posts

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Good morning Positive friends,

The roar was truly ripped in last night’s contest. If Friday night football is like this then I want more of it. I cannot remember opening league game that has had as much action, so much DRAMA, as we endured enjoyed in the course of collecting our three points against the Foxes. Much is often made in the Mainstream media of players somehow not being quite fit or ready for the start of the PL season. Last night I thought the game started at 100 miles and hour and rarely slackened off. A real ‘edge-of-the-seat’ performance the moment Lacazette headed his tidy opener after a minute to the final shrill of Deano’s whistle 94 minutes later.

Why was the action so electric ? Did anyone here really expect quite such a struggle against a Leicester side who last season scuffled away from relegation only in the final weeks of the season ? Not me.

Let me examine what happened.

  • After the hour had passed, and when we were 2-3 behind, we tore the arse out of Leicester ( to use the technical coaching term). From the 60th minute on we passed with precision and moved with speed. The visitors finally could not cope and cracked, twice in the final eight minutes. Ignominiously falling behind for the second time in the evening we needed to switch to Wengerball and my goodness when the lever was pulled we had the players to put it into action. I thought until that point Mesut had been peripheral. In the final 20-30 minutes the German moved from the edge of the engagement to the pivot of all that decisive in our play. Aaron’s swift control and accurate finish levelled it, Larry’s strength finished the battle off. That final half hour was very, very good and no team in the PL, perhaps none but two or three in Europe, could have lived with us. It was not just that substitutions were made. The power was turned up, in my opinion. The performance bodes well.

 

  • Leicester were a dangerous opponent. Fair play to them and the sharpness of Vardy and Okazaki stood out every time during that first hour. What possession they had going forward they used well and forced Cech to save and our defenders to scurry. Four chances, three goals. I salute Leicester for their contribution to the evening’s entertainment.

 

  • Much has been made, by me among others, about the strength of our squad this season which is the best for many years, and I stand by the analysis. Nevertheless fate had conspired to forced us to take our first PL steps with not quote the first 11 we would have chosen, and with a back three made up of our new Bosnian tank, Nacho in the middle, and young Rob on the right side. To lose three goals at home is more than misfortune. Their lack of experience of playing together I am afraid caused the first Leicester goal. The second Vardy goal I thought was taken well so I will accept that. The third Leicester goal the defending was execrable ( a much under-used word I am trying to push back into circulation). Vardy had a free header, not an red shirt in five paces of him. Now I do not blame only the three central defenders for that abomination as I saw almost the same against West Brom in February. But if we want challenge for the PLM then ‘it’ needs sorting out.

 

That will do me nicely this Saturday morning. Enjoy your weekend one and all.

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Wengerball Incoming

Posted by pedantic George @arseblagger on August 11, 2017 in All Posts

 

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I’m afraid the new blogging season is off to an inauspicious start, with our mercurial maestro, Stew Black, out with a slight niggle. So rather than Stew’s beautiful prose you are stuck with my wit and repartee.

I have no idea what sort of an atmosphere will be generated for a Friday night opener, but surely, free from any negative hangovers, it should be good?

The notable absentees are of course Santi – goodness knows when we will see him again – Laurent Koscielny (suspended for 2 more games) and Sanchez (tummy niggle). I’m led to believe that Per trained yesterday, so I expect he will come in for Laurent, partnered by Holding and Monreal.

It appears that Hector is going to be first choice as right wingback so that leaves Arsene to decide between AOC and our new tank, Sead Kolasinac. I believe he will go with Sead.

In midfield it will be Xhaka and ElNeny. Rambo was the standout player in pre-season but has had a slight calf strain, and although he too trained yesterday, I think Arsene will be ultra careful with him.

And now to the front three. Well your guess is as good as mine. It could be any number of combinations. Perhaps Ozil behind Giroud and Lacazette? Or Ozil and Iwobi/Welbeck behind Giroud/Lacazette? Or….. well AOC could feature too…….oh God, I give up.

Anyway, its Arsene’s problem and he is the best placed to choose. Whoever it is, I can’t wait to sit down and soak it in. I’m hugely looking forward the the new season, and although I hope Arsenal can win the league I will savour every game regardless of previous results of ours or our competitors.

Oh, we are playing Leicester City, and lest we forget, they were champions the season before last, so any thoughts of a cakewalk should be banished right now.

I look forward to seeing you all in the comments section regularly throughout the season. Please make the effort, because without you, the blog is nothing. Well, almost nothing, there’s still me in my splendour, but you know what I mean.

Andy will be here tomorrow so its back to the comfort zone.

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CARMON ARSENAL CARMON (we miss you Frank).

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Arsenal: The Winner Takes it All

Posted by anicoll5 on August 7, 2017 in All Posts

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Good morning Positive Arsenal fans and welcome to the 2017/2018 season,

I trust you all thoroughly enjoyed yesterday’s game from Wembley, a contest that swayed from end to end but which I thought the deserved winners emerged?  The result was not quite as comprehensive as in May but I recognise that we were without certainly 4-5, arguably 6 first team starters yesterday so we can be excused a little less than pure clockwork movement in the win.

I reckon we had about 75% control of the game. Our only dodgy phase came after Per was injured and we lost our momentum. When we were after the equaliser CFC spent long periods pinned in their final third and not able to get the ball away. Rather impressive on our part I thought.

Of our lads I thought Iwobi continued his sparkling pre season form and his tricky footwork and running AT the Chelsea back line resulted in an uncomfortable afternoon for our opponents. If you can get AT Luiz and Cahill then they will crack. Stay fit young man and you will have 40 games this season.

Granit earned the man of the match award and he and Mo moved the ball quickly and accurately. As in the Cup Final our midfield imposed control over the Blues for most of the 90 minutes.

Top prize this week goes to Nacho however for a commanding performance in the centre of the back three after Per went off. The Spaniard organised Sead and Rob efficiently, and despite the fact he is not a tall player was never, as far as I can recall, beaten in the air all afternoon. His aerial success came not by the application of brute force and flying elbows, but of reading the game and anticipating the arrival of the ball a split second earlier. Nacho really is a very good defender, and at 31 years old, ( 32 in February) he has 15 years of accumulated wisdom. He has not ever in his AFC career, been prone to fitness problems or suffered a serious injury. Moving to a centre back slot may well extend his Arsenal career by a season or two. I hope so.

The rest of our lads I thought did well, Hector still looking a little rusty, the OX good in parts and a bit clumsy at other times, Alexandre in and out of the game. Overall though I’d give them a collective 7/10.

Of our opponents ? Not very impressive. Not sure why Pedro was playing given he had his mask on to protect four facial “fractures” sustained less than three weeks ago. Are Chelsea really that short of players ? At the game it was far from clear why the Spaniard had been sent off from where I was sitting. Something was clearly “up” because Conte was yelping in the 4th officials ear to try and get him substituted ad the stretcher was brought to pitchside. Looking at it again on the box it was a straight red card and fair play to Mr Madeley. Alvaro Morata after 75 minutes ! What was that about?

And the penalties?

Ah Thibaut, Thibaut, Thibaut ….In the words of Björn the Bard

“The winner takes it all
The loser’s standing small
Beside the victory
That’s her destiny”

And finally, at the insistence of my daughter, a picture of Positively Arsenal’s newest reader, Nelson.

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Enjoy your week!

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Arsenal Community Shield Preview: The 10-10-80 Rule

Posted by shotta_gooner on August 6, 2017 in All Posts

Chelsea v Arsenal - FA Community Shield

Am stating the obvious in observing that today’s Community Shield match is the official opener to the 2017-18 season. To be frank it is nothing more than a glorified friendly with no more at stake than pride and a fancy trophy.

Looking back over the last 20 years, the last team to win both the Community Shield and the Premier League was Manchester United in 2008.  Five years later, United fans may have left the new Wembley cock-a-hoop, after beating the mighty Wigan City to mark the start of the David Moyes era. But there was to be an ignominious PL season by their standards, coming 7th and having to abort the era just after it got started.

Bragging Rights

Arsenal may have bit more to brag about. In 2014 the Gunners thrashed City 3:0 in the Shield but was up to its neck in a dog fight with United for an automatic champion’s league place by May 2015.  The following year, for the first time, Arsene Wenger had a competitive victory over Mourinho at Wembley, only for Leicester City to rise from nowhere and snatch the title away from the big boys, Arsenal finishing a relatively distant second place.

While Arsenal may have scored an enormous moral victory in its last two appearances in the Shield, none but the most cock-eyed fan can count the trophy as anything more than a consolation prize for a failed PL campaign.

Given the Shield is just a preliminary battle in the PL war, Wenger and his coaches, just like Conte and his team, will see the game as an important measure of where their teams are in preparation for next week’s season opener. The results will be important but secondary. Unfortunately, that steely-eyed unemotional appraisal of the professionals will be absent from most fans of both clubs. I can already envisage banners being waved in Wembley by supporters of either club trying to win the pissing contest of who is the greatest club in London.

This takes me to the point of today’s blog. How prepared are Arsenal fans for this campaign? For the first time in 21 years the club cannot count itself as among the top-four campaigning for both the PL and Champions League titles. I am fully aware there are fans who discount participation in the CL on the grounds the Gunners had no chance of winning; something neither Barcelona nor Bayern took for granted as they played their best teams in an effort to defeat Arsenal to secure their place in the next round.

While reputation-wise and financially Arsenal still retains the cachet of a big club, for the first time in a very long time it is a challenger seeking to recover its title. Every former title-holder, gunning to get back to the top, will have doubts, no matter how hard they train, hoping to never duplicate the mistakes that cost them the title.  Additionally, unlike the boxing metaphor, Arsenal will have to prioritize its fights on the comeback trail, sending a second XI to Europa League contests in an effort to prioritize its run at the Premier League title.

Virtue Signaling

Are fans mentally prepared for these new challenges ahead? I am not a psychologist, just an amateur data analyst, but based on my recent experience on twitter the signs are not good. Just last week there was a brouha-ha among Arsenal fans when news was splashed by the mainstream media that Stan Kroenke had a financial stake in a Hunting Channel. It was the excuse for the most mindless, childish, feckless, emotional vituperations vs the majority owner of the club. This, by the way, was mostly by Arsenal fans, who are the majority on my timeline. They as far as I could discern have no knowledge of hunting as a sport, both the good and the bad, and most of all have no real concern about the ethical treatment of animals or else they would denounce the abominable and unhealthy conditions under which meat and poultry are reared in the factory farms, mostly in America. Yet these fans were picking up swords and pitchforks, signing anti-Kroenke petitions and, most laughable of all, advocating Usmanov to become primary owner, yet he is a citizen of Russia where hunting is legal and broadly advocated.

You can see my twitter denunciation of the nonsense which I describe as a clear example of virtue-signaling on social media by those who want to impose their phony virtues on mindless followers simply to gain popularity. No need to mention I have lost the fakes and phonies as followers on my TL. Good riddance, I say.

The 10-10-80 Rule

Why would fans so easily lose their shit over something so fake and phony? Upon reflection it reminded me of something I learnt during my near 20-year career in a retail-oriented business.  It was crystallized in a discussion I recently had with the corporate executive responsible for Asset Protection. The issue was why we had to be constantly vigilant against thieves and fraudsters, always updating our efforts to counter them. He explained, in dealing with human nature there is a 10-10-80 rule. Despite our best efforts at selection and recruiting:

  • 10% will never steal
  • 10% will steal no matter what
  • 80% will sway either way depending on whether there are stiff controls and penalties against theft and malfeasance

I think it is a model that truly approximates the average Arsenal fan:

  • 10% selflessly love and support the club no matter what
  • 10% support the club for selfish reasons and are easily motivated to steal from and undermine the club at every opportunity
  • 80% are in the middle swayed by the tides and fortunes of the club influenced by parties inside (AFC’s PR) and outside the club such as the mainstream media, twitter, bloggers, podcaster etc.

Readers can easily fit the various segments of the fanbase into this model. Obviously the WOBs and AKBs belong to either extreme. But like any model it is a generalization, a crude approximation with many exceptions. Unlike my industry, there is no penalty for stealing from the club and no economic incentive to insure the thieves and fraudsters never prevail.

It is my observation, however, that only when the 10% that selflessly loves the club is aggressive and deliberate in countering the stupid, ignorant mindlessness of the “malcontents” (to quote @blackburngeorge), only then will the 80% will grow a backbone and not fall for the nonsense.

Today’s Community Shield will certainly exemplify the 10-10-80 rule. Apparently the virtue signalers and the enemies of Arsenal Football Club will be attempting to raise banners of protest vs. Kroenke and will do everything to undermine the united, vociferous support needed by our boys in the hard campaign ahead.  Wenger has made the team as prepared as can be. He needs no distractions in spite the need for at least one more quality reinforcement before the transfer window closes on August 31st.

Are Positively Arsenal and the other fellow-minded 10% ready the fight?

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Arsenal- Twinned With Wembley

Posted by pedantic George @arseblagger on August 5, 2017 in All Posts

We go into the opening showpiece game full of fear and trepidation. All of our good players want to leave ,are injured, or are not fit enough to start. We had to rig the result of our own tournament so we could win it. We have signed a striker we thought wasn’t good enough for four years and a leftback that couldn’t even get a renewal at his own club. Every other team has improved and we have,at best, stood still.

What? You don’t believe me? It’s true, I’ve been on twitter since May and that’s what seems to be the consensus.

I know what you are thinking ! “He’s gone mad “. But I kid you not.

I mean, I remember the wonderful way we won the FA Cup and think we have kept all the players we wanted too,  added a £50m striker and a beast of a wingback. I should be looking forward to the new season. What’s wrong with me?

Well the truth is I am excited by the prospect. I love the players we have and I like the new boys. If we can’t enjoy the season before any setbacks have had the chance to blight it, when can we?

I have no idea what sort of a team Arsene will cobble together for the game on Sunday and frankly, I don’t care. Whoever pulls on the shirt will get my support. Whatever the result, I will enjoy watching them try their best. A win would be lovely and will prove we are a force to be reckoned with, but if we lose I’ll find it easy to dismiss the result as just a friendly. Hypocrite you say? And then some.

So Once more unto the breach, dear friends, once more. Football is supposed to be fun, enjoyable, entertainment even. I intend to be entertained for the next 9 months, others can suit themselves.

Oh, and by the way, we are going for our 9th consecutive Wembley win I think.

Up The Arsenal

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Arsenal Well Set Halfway Into The Transfer Window

Posted by shotta_gooner on July 31, 2017 in All Posts

peeking through the window

Some background

Apparently sitting around at home watching a lot of football has convinced many Arsenal fans they are experts at management, coaching, scouting, contract negotiations, commercial deals and, last but by no means least, the proper color of the team kit. As some of my British friends have commented, it is similar to the delusion now held by many punters that they are now experts on furniture restoration after watching the long advert on the use of French polish by Quest tv during their broadcast of the recent Emirates Cup games. It is one thing to fumble through a DIY project over a weekend, it is an infinitely greater magnitude of difference to being the football manager of a multi-million business such as Arsenal Football Club.

The profound difference between being an amateur observer versus an experienced hands-on professional manager is apparently lost on many fans especially those who have gained some notoriety as tweeters, bloggers and podcasters.

When I first interacted with Arsenal fans via blogs some 11-12 years ago, my aspiration was to become part of a community dedicated to supporting the club we loved, to be the proverbial 12th man. Back then I thought this would be the goal of every Arsenal fan given the clear Man United bias in the mainstream media and the British football establishment. I could never have been more naïve in my expectations.

Far from becoming an alternative to the increasingly corrupt mainstream media, most, not all, Arsenal bloggers are less about supporting the club and more about their ego and identification with being a winner. Nothing was more illuminating than the absolute failure of most bloggers to communicate and educate their readers that post-2005 the club and Wenger in particular were competing at a ginormous disadvantage to Abramovich’s Chelsea and the commercial giant at Old Trafford. The club would have to sacrifice investment in players to pay for its new stadium. Worse was to come with the 2008 takeover of City by the sovereign wealth fund of the UAE. It meant Arsenal had slipped from the 2nd biggest club in England financially to at least 4th place.

It was during those lean years that most bloggers, some now turned tweeters and podcasters, began to assume an air of superiority to Arsene Wenger. His so-called failure up to 2013 to add any trophies to his three PL titles including being an “Invincible” as well as five FA cups, had not only sealed his fate in their eyes but they were now empowered to choose the color of the curtains in the manager’s office for the new occupant.

Most of these bloggers-tweeters-podcasters still remain unrepentant despite Wenger proving them stratospherically wrong since 2013, when the shackles imposed by deals necessary to obtain financing the new stadium were finally eased. Three more FA cups and 20 years straight in the Champions League has seemingly embittered rather than humbled them. Somehow they think the new commercial contracts with Emirates Airlines suddenly made Arsenal equally competitive with the three money-bag clubs. But as the historically pro-Manchester United newspaper, The Guardian, was quick to point out:

“£30m a year from the Middle East airline, who have extended their shirt sponsorship by five years until the end of the 2018-19 season and secured the stadium naming rights, which were due to expire in 2021, until 2028. This marks a significant increase in revenue on the previous deal but falls short of Chevrolet’s £357m, seven-year sponsorship of Manchester United.”

Fact is Arsenal remains the 4th strongest Premier League club in financial capacity. As our blogmeister and twitter legend, the one and only @BlackburnGeorge, frequently reminds the factually and financially challenged members of the twiteratti, Arsenal’s objective expectation at the start of every PL season is to come 4th and to make a good cup run. The fact that we usually punch above our weight is due solely to the outstanding leadership of Arsene Wenger.

Despite clear demonstration by the manager that he is approaching the new season with greater resolve, having thoroughly demolished his detractors in the board room battle over his new contract, the usual gaggle of bloggers-tweeters-podcasters continue their stupid little games hoping Arsenal fans will buy into.

As an American, most cringe-worthy is the role of certain gooners across the pond, who, from at least 3,000 miles away, have decided they have the gravitas to criticize the player management strategy of the manager and his transfers (Yes, I know that’s the info you want and I am getting there). They are the perfect carricatures of Graham Greene’s “The Ugly American”. Rather than being humbled by the generosity of our British friends in giving them a platform to speak, they act arrogantly and crow noisily on subjects they have no expertise. How longer will this embarrassment continue? Will this welcoming mat always remain?

Halfway Into This Transfer Window

Unlike my compatriots who prefer to highlight their own opinions, in preparation for this blog, I spent quality time retrieving and making sense of the data from Transfermarkt from an Arsenal point of view. Before I present my findings let me remind you of some of the main characteristics of the transfer market:

  • Unlike various well known stock or commodity markets, it was designed by FIFA and the big clubs to restrain trading activity to a fixed period of time and to restrict freedom of buyers and sellers. It is no supermarket shelf where Arsenal can identify and target, for example, all central midfielders available.
  • Knowledge of willing buyers and sellers is restricted. Due to restrictions on tapping up, player agents play the main role of putting buyers and sellers together. Arsenal relies heavily on agents, not Dick Law, to make initial contact and bring the parties together.
  • Information is restricted. Due to the opacity of the market, third party interests whether as owners or agents are now flourishing in the grey area of the market. Due to this grey activity Arsenal reportedly refuses to do business with certain super agents.

Findings as of July 30th based on the top 100 transfers:

  • £1.645 billion is the value of transfer fees worldwide mostly in Europe.
  • £1.363 billion is the market value of the players acquired.
  • Clubs worldwide paid a 17% premium in transfer fees vs market value.

Premier League is the biggest spender:

  • £649 million in transfer fees or 39% of total fees spent.
  • £415 million in market value of players acquired.
  • 36% premium in transfer fees vs market value, i.e. double the worldwide premium.

In contrast to the Premier League, the Bundesliga clubs are very value conscious:

  • £192 million in transfer fees.
  • £188 million in market value of players acquired.
  • 2% premium in transfer fees vs market value, i.e. 800% less than the worldwide premium.

Who doubts Bayern will hand it to a PL club in next year’s champion’s league?

Manchester City is the PLs biggest spender:

  • £194 million in transfer fees.
  • £103 million in market value of 5 players acquired.
  • 47% premium in transfer fees vs market value, i.e. nearly triple the worldwide premium.

Check/Cheque Guardiola indeed!

Chelsea is no slouch:

  • £119 million in transfer fees.
  • £69 million in market value of 3 players acquired.
  • 42% premium in transfer fees vs market value, i.e. 250% above the worldwide premium.

Manchester United have distinguished themselves as making the biggest splash in the transfer market so far. Their purchases show the same trend as City and Chelsea:

  • £102 million in transfer fees.
  • £61 million in market value of 2 players acquired.
  • 40% premium in transfer fees vs market value, i.e. 250% above the worldwide premium.

Contrast Arsenal with the big money  clubs:

  • £45 million in transfer fees.
  • £47 million in market value of 2 players acquired.
  • -4% premium in transfer fees vs market value, i.e. 400% less than the worldwide premium.

Value wise AFC has limited downside risk to the players acquired yet they are clear degrees superior in value to the players they are nominally replacing. Lacazette’s market value is £34m vs Perez which is £12.75m. Similarly Kolasinac is valued at £12.75m versus Gibbs who is rated £8.50m.

Most importantly, Arsenal has improved the quality of players in both forward line and in defense. It is self evident that the next area for improvement is in central midfield. My confidence is based on the research I have done demonstrating, with data, the critical importance of missing Santi Cazorla during our last two failed league challenges. Additionally I did two blogs in the second half of last season quantifying deficiencies in central midfield. I am therefore convinced this is Wenger’s focus.

By the way almost all the bloggers and podcasters are now singing the same tune we wrote months ago, i.e. the need for a central midfielder acting as a secondary playmaker. Seemingly they all read this blog while pretending they don’t. As we always remind ourselves at PA, we rely on the unbiased data. It is constant, silent and unemotional but it is undeniable. By trusting the data we almost always arrive at the correct conclusions.

As usual I leave the final word to the genius, who is again playing the transfer market like a fine fiddle, i.e. to Arsene:

“I believe there are actually two ways to improve the team. First of all to improve the quality of what we do in training to improve the squad and improve the players we have, and secondly to bring more top-level players in. 

“The difficulty is to bring top-level players in because you pay a huge amount of money for very normal players at the moment. As well, all the big clubs are chasing the same players and that provokes huge inflation. Maybe this will be the first time we [football clubs] pay over £200m, maybe over £300m with Neymar and around £200m with Mbappe. 

“So there is a huge inflation. But we are active, we are working hard and I think we have done well with Kolasinac, we have done well with Lacazette and we are continuing to work.

“There’s the usual acceleration in the final part of August,” added Wenger, “But I think you have always to be on alert every day, because a good opportunity might turn up. 

“Sometimes people you are after for a long time are not available and suddenly they become available. So you have always to be on alert. That’s what we do.”

I will do a follow-up at the end of the window.

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Alexis Sanchez: A Classic Case of Fake News

Posted by shotta_gooner on July 24, 2017 in All Posts

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Whither Alexis Sanchez at Arsenal Football Club?

The way the media has spun this story since last May, not surprisingly, those who are most prone to their deceptions and fakeries, must be feeling like John Denver in “Leaving on a jet plane”:

“All my bags are packed
I’m ready to go
I’m standin’ here outside your door
I hate to wake you up to say goodbye
But the dawn is breakin’
It’s early morn
The taxi’s waitin’
He’s blowin’ his horn
Already I’m so lonesome
I could die”

According to the fakers, his suitcases are now packed for PSG, a few days earlier it was City, and prior to that it was Bayern. Disbelieve me at your peril.

In preparation for this piece, on Saturday afternoon EST, I did a quick search of Google News and in 45 seconds there were 2,500,000 hits on Alexis and his rumored transfer. As any informed person should know by now, Google is not being altruistic in generating this data. This is certainly one way of convincing advertisers they can gain the attention of those millions of eyeballs consuming the equivalent of transfer “junk food.” It is no wonder Alphabet Corporation, Google’s parent company, dominates the multi-billion on-line advertising space.

I am not for one moment blaming Google for this sorry state of news reporting, specifically sports coverage. With very few exceptions, like their political brethren, football journos and their bosses have decided facts be damned in the pursuit of a juicy transfer rumor.  It is all about ratings whether in electronic or print media.  Just as bad or even worse are the online websites and their twitter offspring who multiply like weeds at this time of the year. One can easily assume they are profiting from the increased web traffic during transfer season. Those of my readers, not using an adblocker when browsing, are suckers for pop-ups selling you dildos and sexy anime apart from being at risk for malware.

To understand the commercial benefit of peddling transfer rumors take for example the top listings, ranked by popularity, by Google from my 45-second search:

“PSG increasingly confident of signing Neymar and Alexis Sánchez” (Guardian)

“Arsenal transfer news: Alexis Sanchez to PSG, official bid to be made” (Fox Sports)

“Arsene Wenger attempts to ward off rivals’ interest in Alexis Sanchez” (Independent)

“Arsene Wenger adamant Alexis Sanchez won’t join PSG” (ESPN FC)

“Alexis Sanchez meets PSG chief ahead of €50m move” (Goal.com)

Nearly 8 hours after Arsene Wenger’s clear and unambiguous statement that reports of Alexis meeting with PSG was “…only media imagination”, with the unusual exception of ESPN FC, both the mainstream media and, renown rumor-monger, Goal.com were still peddling the bullsh*t that Alexis Sanchez could be in both Chile and France at the same time. Moreover how could he, without the club’s permission, be discussing personal terms relative to his transfer, which is one of the biggest violations of the rules and regulations governing player contracts. This could not only land him in trouble but also put PSG at risk of a transfer ban as happened earlier to Barcelona and only recently to Athletico Madrid.

The facts is, as of the time of posting this blog, nobody knows, with perhaps the exception of Arsene Wenger, whether Alexis will be staying or leaving Arsenal Football Club this transfer window. Admittedly his future is somewhat up in the air.

The first sign publicly of his unhappiness or disgruntlement with the club is the strop he threw in February after the first of two defeats to Bayern Munich in last year’s champions league. It amuses me no-end to read and listen pundits and journos claim Alexis was let down by the rest of the squad in that game. The fact is,  he was relatively ineffective, coughing up possession on several occasions leading to dangerous counter-attacks by the Bavarians. Sounds familiar? This is despite his elevation by the media as a world class player who is a game-changer at this level. Have we forgotten the funny faces and contemptuous smiles he made after he was substituted?

In the subsequent week there were reports of him being part of a bust-up on the training ground. While the manager has never confirmed, it was self-evident that as a consequence he was benched for the start of an important PL game with Liverpool which followed thereafter. The fact that Arsenal lost that game added to the media myth of the indispensable Alexis, as if he was not part of both Bayern losses and a good many others.

Since the February-March decline in its fortunes, the media had been doing its level best to create a climate of doom and gloom around the club featuring the supposed denouement of Arsene Wenger as manager and the eventual departure of both Sanchez and Ozil, the club’s two best players. Apparently the two stars plan to not renew their contracts as they go into their final year because they are earth-shatteringly disappointed that AFC did not qualify for the champions league.

Has it struck anyone that none of the predictions made last April-May by the mainstream media and like-minded bloggers, tweeters and podcasters concerning the imminent demarche of Arsenal Football Club and Arsene Wenger has come to pass? None. Nada. Zilch.

The media has so carefully constructed a narrative of doom and gloom, it seems they have no choice but to continue promotion of rumors, half-truths and downright lies about Alexis.

As anybody who follows me on twitter knows, this defenestration of the media does not mean I am a fanboy of the Chilean.  To the contrary, I support those who think his individualistic tendency does more harm than good to the way Arsenal plays. Specially concerning to me is his desire to drop into the midfield to demand the ball but thereafter lose possession because of his less than 70% pass completion rate. This, in my opinion, is detrimental to team balance in both attack and defense.

But one cannot deny the importance of his 33 goals and 15 assists in all competitions. Of 77 PL goals by Arsenal last season Alexis contributed 24 or 31%. Until Arsenal can replace those goals it would be foolhardy to lose his services.

It seems to me the club is preparing for any eventuality. Surely it is not a coincidence that the service of Lacazette was secured early in the transfer window for a club record transfer fee of £49 million. Usually Arsenal will be conservative in its valuation of a player and take the negotiations into the ultimate week of the transfer window. Another significant piece of information is the public admission by Ivan Gazidis, when in Australia, that the club was club was trying to attract Thomas Lemar from Monaco is also evidence that a wide player to supplement or replace Alexis is being sought.

But I give Wenger the benefit of the doubt. He knows better than almost anyone how risky it is to depend on new players coming from a different league to come up to speed and to immediately produce. Without big money to spend, he took some pretty big risks in the past and was able to scramble into the champions league. In recent years he has repeatedly proclaimed, to those who would listen, that the PL is getting tougher and tougher as the so-called small clubs are acquiring better players and coaches etc.

I therefore take him at his word that he wants to keep Alexis for the final year of his contract and not sell him to a domestic or foreign club.  In the summer of 2003 he convinced Patrick Vieira, who was agitating for a transfer, to commit for a final year. Patrick renewed his contract and stayed. The rest, as we all know, is history.

By the way, two years later Patrick did get the big move he had been agitating for. Wenger appears convinced he can do something as big with Alexis.

If the Chilean does, however, refuse to extend his contract and agitate for a transfer, all bets are off. There is no way the board (big decisions are not down solely to Wenger) will easily allow him to walk for a free with 50 million in English or European currencies on the table. Only clubs with humongous non-football sources of revenue such as United, Chelsea and City can easily treat 30-40-50 million as monopoly money. At the end of the day football is a business, not a hobby. Owners, shareholders, managers must look toward the long-term interest of the club not only the short-term gratification of fans.

Happily we are not at that point yet. But the day of reckoning is coming sooner or later. There are 5 weeks more in the transfer window. That is almost a lifetime in football. Stay tuned.

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Arsenal: I’m singing the Bird’s Nest Blues

Posted by anicoll5 on July 22, 2017 in All Posts

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For a friendly I thought that was a decent game. Fair play to the RentBoys who deserved their win. 3-0 was a bit hard to take but we were regularly cut open during the first half, before they scored, and only poor finishing allowed it to stay at 0-0 as long as it did. We created very little in the CFC half during the first 45, and just one save from Courtois. Ospina really did the business on Pedro though, Floyd Mayweather would have been proud. And the referee gave the foul against Pedro ??

http://www.mirror.co.uk/sport/football/pedro-knocked-out-david-ospina-10850907

The second half was much more even and we could/should have got on the scoreboard. As far as I could see no injuries so unlike last year the tour games have not caused a headache for Arsene as we return to the UK.

Reasons or lessons ?

Conte clearly started with a stronger team and with what I’d guess is his first choice defence. We started with a far less experienced set up and the difference in defensive quality in the first half was crystal. That is what decided the result. No criticism of Ospina and one of his saves from Moses’ volley was a real peach. I shall not hang out AMN or Bramall. They were asked to step up but it found themselves confronted by fast, determined opponents. They struggled defensively and did not have enough quality going forward to trouble Alonso or Moses. Per was gasping early on and my impression was he was not fit, it may have been his food poisoning has not fully cleared up.

Going forward in the first half ? Attacking ? Chance (s) created?

A very flat first half. Lets move on.

Second half, as I say, I’d mark it 50/50. We made chances and on another day could have got 1-2 goals. Le Coq had a rocket up his arse – more of that please. Larry had fun. Sead is not the sort of bloke you’d want to meet in a dark alley. Alex Iwobi was probably our best player over the course of the full game. As the game went on and it became youngsters v youngsters I thought we edged the football. Pleased with Reiss and his short but confident cameo.

No complaints with referee, pitch was a bit rubbish but I am sure we will play on worse next season in the Europa.

Onwards and upwards from the Bird’s Nest to the Eagles next Saturday !

The season is surely coming – I can smell it.

 

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