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Arsenal Versus Burnley:

2011 Philip Neill - Burnley Collector Cards -P037b

When chaps of a certain vintage, that is to say elderly gents like yours truly, hear the name of Burnley FC a deluge of images at once swamp the imagination. Muddy, potholed turf, balding players, comb-overs streaming in the wind behind them, leather case balls, concrete terraces and, invariably, a dog on the pitch.

Burnley is one of a list of names once synonymous with top flight football, now faded and trying to plough a new furrow. Huddersfield, Preston North End, Leeds United, the two Sheffield Clubs, Coventry City all enjoyed their time in the limelight, all slipped quietly away. It is a salutary lesson for the dreadful, entitled fans of today who believe their club owes them trophies and continual success, who seem to regard it as a birthright. Clubs rise, build empires and those empires fall.

Sometimes the fallen can rise again. I clearly remember watching Manchester United at Eastville stadium, home then of Bristol Rovers, in a second division fixture. Nobody imagined for a moment they, Manchester not Bristol that is, might climb to the summit, dislodge the mighty Liverpool and dominate English football for years. It can happen but it is the exception and not the rule. Nowadays the only likelihood of seeing the likes of Huddersfield or Leeds challenging those at the business end of the league comes in the cup competitions.

Such is the case today as Burnley travel down from Lancashire to face an Arsenal side who, they might feel, could be ripe for the taking. How, you may well cry, can I inflict such jibber-jabber upon you? ‘Ripe’ forsooth? ‘For the taking’ egad? Well, I only say they might think this, not they do or they should. Taking into account the fact that we’ve failed to win in our previous three games it is conceivable that they could be forgiven for thinking this is as good a time as any to visit the Emirates. We shall see.

The dog eared Soccer Stars cards of Colin Waldron and Freddie Smith may have faded from all but the most nostalgic of memories, but Burnley FC hasn’t gone, far from it. In fact the mention of their name has garnered a more recent connotation. I for one cannot hear it without seeing this, one of my all time favourite Arsenal goals.

Set up by intelligent, urgent movement from Alex Song, physical battling by Diaby and tireless off the ball running from Arshavin before a mercurial assist by the man who started the move, the goal isn’t just splendid for its finish. It is also a beautiful snapshot of how utterly wrong the cliché racked moron brigade always have been about players’ abilities, strengths and fitness to wear the shirt. Always have been and sadly I suspect always will be. Imagine, for example, if Andre Arshavin really had been lazy and unwilling to chase down every lost cause. That wonderful goal would never have happened.

Of course the finish was sublime. I don’t know whether to laugh or cry when I watch it. That such a player with such composure, such class should have been cut down by a man with no right to walk on the same grass is heartbreaking, but at least we saw some flashes of what Arsène saw in him. I sincerely believe he could have gone on to be one of the very best.

These days Burnley are building again and are very strongly in contention for promotion to the Premier League. I don’t see today’s visitors as a team from a lower division goggle eyed and weak kneed in the house of the mighty. There is very little difference in this fixture than playing against a side in the Premier League relegation zone. Consider that we will have to rest players and possibly blood our new boy as well and the gap closes a little more. In short I don’t expect it to be easy.

However. Having said all of that I seriously believe that someone is in for a spanking soon. The manager and players will be hurting after the recent run of poor results and we all know that there are more goals in this team than we’ve seen lately. Will this cup tie provide the cathartic blood letting which restores the humours and puts us back on track? Or will we squeak through today and vent against Southampton on Tuesday? I don’t know but I feel it’s coming.

Even as I toy with ideas of a sudden goal rush  reversing the recent trend of snatched, missed chances I have to be honest and say I’d settle for a calm professional performance of control, a carefully managed victory with no alarms and no surprises. But then – where would be the fun in that? This the FA Cup, our FA Cup and such a tournament demands excitement, drama, spirited resistance from the plucky underdogs, near misses and of course a glorious outcome for the worthy winners. Oh, and a goal or two to match the superlative effort of Eduardo da Silva’s wouldn’t go amiss either.

 

 

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Positively Arsenal is Three !!

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Good morning Positivistas,

Three years ago today Arsenal Andrew delivered the first blog on Positively Arsenal, and in his elegant analysis moved swiftly over a rousing victory over Brighton in the 4th round of the Cup, the closing of the transfer window, shook his head in pity at incessant and self destructive traits among our following, with fan against fan in the ground and on line. He delivered the ethos of the site, that we are together here to support Arsenal football club, win, lose or draw. New born, but fully formed.

On those days when the footballing sky fell in PA was a haven to retire to, away from the madness. On the days of triumph, of great results and great performances, of silverware and victory, a forum to celebrate on and together. Just support, enjoy yourself, it is really not that difficult.

And so in the intervening three years it has remained so. We remain unique.

I am delighted that contributions came in from our Leader and DC pre birthday but I trust any who have a few words to say, on whatever topic takes their fancy today, will do so;

Blackburn George: Three years ago, even previously supportive bogs were losing their shit and throwing their toys out of the pram, together with Arsene ,the Board and half the team. It was a grim time for those of us that believed the future was bright. 

For me, the saddest thing was seeing fans that not only jumped ship, but climbed on-board the ship that was sailing in the absolute opposite direction.

Something had to be done by someone to create a safe haven for those that stayed strong. Well some of us did something, and this is it.  

We could of course make the comments section much larger, by opening the door to the malcontent, miserable and stupid. But guess what?

I hope everyone feels part of Positively Arsenal, and I thank everyone that contributes to the articles and the comments.

Onward and upward. COYG 

Double Canister; Thoughts on PA

“The difference in winning and losing is most often…not quitting.” – Walt Disney

The more difficult the victory, the greater the happiness in winning.” – Pele

Just over 3 years ago, Arsenal’s supporters were being pushed into a very dark place. Very few rationally minded supporters were left  resisting the barrage of constant negativity aimed at us from the media and the hate-fuelled perma-bitter fringes of our own fan base. Looking back, we might remember the constantly repeated memes that Arsenal had an exceptionally long trophy drought? as if other so called big clubs have far worse and on-going ones? Remember the meme that they couldn’t win a big game? Arsenal were the perennial chockers and bottlers, led of course by the biggest eejit of them all in the coat with the dodgy zip?

Such was the state of near universal censure aimed at Arsène Wenger, I found it hard to find anyone to discuss our football club’s genuinely upward progress in a sensible and intelligent manner. Mercifully and quite luckily one night browsing through other blogs I heard of people in the underground, people who weren’t drinking the kool-aid, people who were laughed at for driving in the sunshine bus, who were pariahs from other more ‘sensible’ minded sites where the mantra was the boss’s time was up. I found Positive Arsenal as a beacon in the fog, a place of hope and reason; not for the reason that George and Co. were defending Arsène’s and the Club’s actions to the hilt no matter what he did- but that you were prepared to look at actions the correct context: the stadium building, the financial doping going on by rivals, the low value sponsorships the club had to deal with, the post invincibles rebuilding of a weaker team piece by piece and the desertions of key men who wouldn’t wait or wouldn’t understand.

Positively Arsenal for me stands as a paragon of rational and clear thought; Sometimes brave, always encouraging. It must be deeply unfashionable to be a staunch and proud believer in of our club’s continuing achievements and to have the temerity to actually trust the current incumbent in the hottest of hot seats leading our great club to be doing his very best each and every single day to ensure that Arsenal continue to achieve greatness. In terms of Arsenal’s future: no one else is looking over the horizon as far as Mr. Wenger does.

In the 3 years since PA has been around, it has remarkably paralleled Arsenal’s own up-turn in fortunes and I’d like to wish we had something to do with that- but that would be pushing the boat out too far. Suffice to say though, that George’s and Co.’s stalwart defence of our clubs actions and manager here and in the wider online realm has kept the flame alive for many, and for the many regular contributors here, I count you all as good friends and I’ve been lucky enough to meet several of you in person to watch Arsenal games. I hope to get to the Emirates again a few times this season and would love to help out with giving PA a few match reports.

A final word to some of our lost friends: Paul Brickhill, Adam Brogden and to where ever Frank has disappeared to. Arsenal are doing you proud – you believed in them when no one else wanted to. Thank you.

Worst PA Moment – Hunter

 

May the next three be as good as the past three. Enjoy our birthday !

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Arsenal – The Slave of Nervous Circumstance

Good morning fellow Positive Arsenal fans,

Another Sunday afternoon passed in a blur of frustration as Chelsea made off with all the points in a game where I fancied, I think almost all of us fancied, that we would win and stamp our footballing superiority, indeed our collective moral superiority, over the faltering Russian Empire of SW6. A team struggling along at 14th in the Premier League facing a side that only requires a win to return to the top of the table. What could go wrong ?

As for the ‘why’s’ of the setback no doubt the gallows and bonfires of the mainstream and social media have identified and despatched their scapegoats by the cartload since the final whistle, and in some instances perhaps before !

For my part I thought young Shotts had it about right during the game yesterday when he noted that we had begun the game too keyed up, too anxious to rid ourselves the blue monkey. There was very little relaxed about our possession, our passes were too hard or too timid, and when an occasional chink opened in the visitors’ defensive armour we lashed at the ball. It was a collective nervousness, and one that it took us an hour to really get out of our system before we settled down and began to play our football. It is not the first time we have blown up against Chelsea – different players yesterday but still the same edginess that allowed Chelsea to settle – one anomaly for the manager to ponder.

As for our visitors the format we anticipated developed exactly as expected. Deep defence, hard tackling, ugly but always retaining their organisation. If they were to hurt us it would come through a swift counterattack, and so for our BFG it proved. With his dismissal nervousness turned to five minutes of panic and for the only time in the whole afternoon Costa slipped his leash. With their lead the visitors returned to the trenches.

One question someone might enlighten me on. Why did it take four+ minutes to make the Gabriel substitution ? It did not matter as the Brazillian was on the pitch when Costa scored but it seems bizarre that in those circumstances, i.e. your centre back has been sent off, both the player and the bench are not better prepared. It is hardly an unforeseeable occurrence in an AFCvCFC game is it ?

There is very little I can find to say about our first half of football.  I said we started poorly, it is enough. The red card disoriented us further, the goal punished us. A risk was taken, apparently, by taking of Olivier and using Theo up front. I do not think it is an arrangement that is likely to be used again unless the Frenchman is seriously injured. I can understand however that down to ten men and a goal down it took some time to regroup and by the very end of the half and in the opening few minutes of the second we were just beginning to show a spark of quality.

After the hour and with the arrival of Sanchez we finally began to put some pressure on Chelsea, pulling their shape about, getting into shooting positions( even if the reluctance to pull the trigger persisted) and making them commit fouls that drew cards. We began to take control of the ball for the first time. Ten of our men were taking the game to eleven of their men. The Chilean was very much the catalyst of the change but his vigour, and the need to have three Chelsea players chasing him freed up space for Aaron and Mesut and they began to create. During the final half hour I thought Hector was very good on the right, very, very good in fact. We never had the visitors’ goal open before us but during that final 20 minutes we were on top and an equalizer seemed entirely do-able.

Despite five extra minutes the doing remain undone however, and so the tale I had in mind for this morning of a spirited recovery against the Fates remains unwritten, for now.

Third birthday of PA on Thursday – for those who have already produced a piece I thank you, for those who are still contemplating the floor is yours . In either circumstance don’t forget to look in and light a candle.

 

 

 

 

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Arsenal Versus Chelsea: Unfinished Business

Lots of football fans are spending a lot of time discussing the various merits of teams not their own. There is even a rift among Arsenal fans – but fear not for this is a rift of the gentlest and least acidic nature – as to whether Leicester City should stop irritating everyone and bugger off or whether they might continue just long enough to take points from Manchester City. Some are looking nervously over their shoulders towards Paxton Road as the noisy neighbours continue to stack up points in what looks like a irritatingly consistent fashion. Others worry that Manchester United, despite being written off as a disaster movie, are actually still in fifth place and hardly an irrelevance given their historical tendency to spoil things for everyone around them.

Supporters, like gunslingers in a wild west saloon, sit nervously fingering the hammers on their Colt revolvers, casting quick uncertain glances around the room unsure where the real danger lies. Such is the nature of the 2015/16 season. Uncertainty is king, the unexpected the only thing worth betting on. Some adventurous fellow was actually giving out his score predictions for all the top six clubs over the next few games. I read them and stood to applaud such selfless endeavour. Bravo sir. Could I suggest you perhaps get a hobby? Maybe he thinks he already has one.

The fourth estate, that foetid swamp of amoral, parasitic blood suckers doesn’t know which way to turn and is terrified that Arsène may put two fingers up to the lot of them and actually win the title. Instead of simply acknowledging where the club is they are trying to pile on pressure with their ‘the best chance for years’ narrative or as in the case of disaffected ex players like Robson openly stating that Arsenal ought to win the thing so that if anybody else does it can be painted as a huge failing by the manager and players.

I have a subtly different take upon all this hoo-ha and folderol. As soon as we hit the top of the table I actually cease to give two hoots about any of the other teams regardless of their upcoming matches or current form. Only when they appear on the Arsenal fixture list do they even truly exist for me. You see, my fellow followers of football’s finest, the time to worry about what the others do or don’t do is when we are chasing them not the other way about.

When my mother taught me to drive back in the halcyon days of the Triumph TR7 and Ford Fiesta XR2i, she would swat away any comment I made about the vehicle driving in such close proximity to my rear end that it appeared to be attempting to mate with my lumbering Austin Maxi. She would tell me in no uncertain terms not to worry about what was happening behind me “Let them worry about you” was her mantra and it is sound advice whether on the A362 or when contemplating a possible push for the Premier League pole.

We, in contradistinction to all other sides, enjoy the comfort of only needing to concern ourselves with our own result. Win today by any margin and we go top again. It is a splendid state of affairs. If and when it changes I shall alter my stance and ponder the results of the team or teams in front of us. Until then I’m not interested in the rear view mirror. There is only one goal and that is victory against Chelsea.

Any other year and a visit from any other team languishing in fourteenth place might not cause much of a flutter. Add to this the possible return of two of our better players and one might have expected a little more confidence in the run up to such a game. Except of course it isn’t any other team is it? It is the demon spawn of Fulham. The financially doped, universally despised, diving, cheating, thuggish ensemble of brattish, unsavoury ne’er-do-wells who have never made life easy for us. Like Liverpool and Stoke I expect them to raise their game today. The graph showing their league progress this season may have virtually flat-lined over the last dozen games or so but they still posses a talented and capable squad and we will need to be at our most truculent, determined best to prevail.

The table however, does not lie. Arsenal is where it is on merit and likewise our visitors are where they are on merit. Play to our potential and we can beat anybody. Refuse to rise to their illegal tactics or respond to their deliberate provocation and we will return to the top of the table this evening.

A capable referee is vital in this fixture as anyone who witnessed the debacle at Stamford Bridge can attest. I see that a certain Mr Clattenburg holds the whistle, cards and shaving foam today. I won’t presume to be able to distinguish his ability from any of the other hapless and most probably corrupt gang of useless, myopic and inconsistent fools who spoil so many matches every year, but I’m sure Andy Nic has Clatty’s picture on his bedroom wall and will be better placed to tell us what a decent, professional and responsible fellow he is. So I’ll leave that to you Andy.

Personally I used to hate playing Chelsea above all other teams. Their demise as a threat and the departure of the graceless one has somewhat drawn the sting as far as that goes. I still want to beat them of course. Granted, given that a win puts us back on top, I want us to beat everyone we play so that doesn’t mean much. I just feel, Diego Costa aside, that a little of the venom has left this particular fixture and that is all to the good.

Calm professional heads needed from now until May, I fancy. The kind of serene determination best able to shuck off the occasional predictable disappointment and get back to winning ways tout de suite. I firmly believe we have these kind of players. Given even half decent luck with injuries and a bit of backbone from the fans we should be there or thereabouts.

But let’s not get ahead of ourselves. Let’s do that which needs to be done today and allow tomorrow to wait until its appointed hour. At the time of writing our destiny is still in our own hands, get the job done today and we can begin to prepare in a similar vein for the visit of Southampton, with whom we also have a little unfinished business to attend. Oh dear, just listen to me, preaching live for today and at the same time lifting the skirt of the calendar to peep upon the knickers of tomorrow. I apologise. I will leave you to your pre match rituals. I’m off out to brave the weather on my trusty mountain bike and assuming I don’t leave the saddle in an unplanned and deleterious manner I shall return and resume our intercourse down among the wines and spirits. Salut!

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Arsenal – Professional Performance Points Won

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Good Evening Positivistas,

Final whistle at the Britannia just blown as I begin to write. Overall I am pleased with not just the point but with the performance. Stoke may have changed their spots under Mr Hughes but there is still that very physical core to their game that, on other cold, Sundays afternoons over the past few seasons, we have not dealt with. A tense final eight minutes I thought when a little careless passing put our goal under threat. After Wednesday I am sure we were all on edge for those final ssssssllllllloooowwww few minutes …….but despite the sensation of time slowing, or even reversing at one point, the end finally came.

Did I mention no one who has won the PL has ever lost at the Britannia in the same season ?

I thought I had.

Who shone and what we did well in the old gold? I thought Nacho was superb today, and the contest between the Spaniard and Walters was between two intelligent, very fit professionals. Any error or weakness would have been pounced on but Nacho concentrated for 93 minutes and I doubt Walters has had as frustrating ninety minutes in front of the baying, toothless mob of home fans in a long time.

The Ox I also think produced the level of performance that has been trying to burst out for a few weeks. He was out creative spring in the middle of the park, loads of energy, winning the ball, turning, twisting, trying to pick out that special ball. Good to watch and it will have given his confidence a boost for sure.

What we did well I thought was control and retain the ball for long periods across midfield. For much of the second half Stoke were pinned back, if the ball was cleared it was quickly recovered and returned. Where we let ourselves down, and perhaps where we missed out German playmaker on the afternoon, was using all that possession in the final third of the pitch, in front of the home side’s goal. We opened Stoke up just once, with Giroud’s shot excellently saved by Butland in the first half. Too often I felt the Stoke defenders had a few seconds to regroup and our threat battered itself against the rocks. It is a defect that will soon be erased with players returning.

Much as it pains me to admit it Shawcross, Peters, Wolfschied etc, and behind them Jack Butland, are a formidable defence. Composed under pressure, even in the second half phase when they were unable to get out of their half. Probably not much to do with the Hughes and the ghost of Pulis rattles his chains loudly.

Less satisfactory this afternoon ? Having clearly made a mug of Wolfschied in the first minute, and attracted referee Pawson’s attention to the defender’s clumsy foul, (and having the elderly and overweight Glenn Johnson in front of him) I settled down to watch Theo make his mark. Wrong Andrew. A couple of useful interventions by Theo later but, on an afternoon which cried out for speed against the Stoke back four, the contribution was not there. ‘In’ occasionally, ‘out’ quite a lot. He was apparently surprised when being substituted. I will be surprised if the boy starts next week, although Chelsea do suffer from theophobia.

Did not see any injuries to our players today. Compared to previous bloodbaths in Staffordshire the violence was tea-party level today.

Two draws and points to match. Not the six, or even the four points, I suspect we all hoped for before the kick off on Wednesday. Nevertheless back to the top of the pile again. A good week off to rest and recuperate.

Enjoy what is left of your Sunday.

 

 

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Arsenal Versus Stoke: Keep Buggering On

I’m taking part in something called the six week challenge. It happens every year and the local radio station, of which my show is a small part, is an enthusiastic participant. The joy for me has always been that they start the thing in November and I am therefore ready equipped with an excuse. November is, as any fule kno, National Novel Writing Month and I am a fully signed up member of NANOWRIMO and as such cannot contemplate any other shenanigans be they two, four, or six weeks in duration.

So they moved it to January. Given it’s all to do with promoting health and well being that was always the obvious time of year for it really. Shorn of my usual excuse and feeling tender having just listened to a particularly beautiful Nick Cave ballad the station chief caught me at a vulnerable moment and signed me up.

I’ve gone for a cycling based fitness programme spread over six weeks with ever increasing distances to be covered. Sounded doable on paper so I was pretty relaxed and completed the first week without a problem. On Friday I started week three and that all too familiar feeling of the mid season blues has set in. Last night I struggled out into the icy wind to pedal my six mile quota and it would be toying with the truth to suggest I enjoyed myself. Now, I know I’m not a professional athlete – this won’t come as a huge surprise to anyone who has ever caught sight of me illuminated by the light of the fridge in the wee small hours – and as such I appreciate there is a certain looseness to the parallel I am about to draw.

All I could think as I wheezed along the old Fosse Way, during those moments when thought surfaced through the thumping, gasping crash of my pulse, was how the middle bit of any endeavour is always the hardest. The trough from which we fear we may never emerge. It is the time the novel doesn’t get written because, well, who the hell will ever read it? Who cares? Why am I bothering? It is the time the fitness regime seems suddenly unnecessarily fascistic and who the hell am I trying to fool anyway, I’ll never do this. It is the Wednesday in the week of our adventure when last weekend is a stale memory and the next one too far away to contemplate.

I felt a certain kinship with the Arsenal boys who got tonked at St Mary’s. With the side that just couldn’t quite withstand the Anfield barrage on Wednesday but held on bravely for at least a point. I have nothing but admiration for the sportsmen who can dig deepest when the exuberance and novelty of August has burned away and the adrenaline of the run in is far off into the future. The raw, flayed skin of their ambition laid bare to the biting winter winds, they refuse to allow themselves to doubt that they will overcome and somehow find the strength to carry on. To raise themselves up on stepping stones of their dead selves as the poet Tennyson was so fond of saying and, as he wasn’t, to keep buggering on.

I drew much inspiration from these thoughts and stripped six seconds from my personal best time for one section of the ride, showing that just when the night seems darkest there is always a glimmer for those prepared to look hard enough. For others the light becomes ever more difficult to see. Leicester City, for example, seem to be finding the trough difficult to negotiate. Our friend Double Canister shared a Squawka stat which read “Riyad Mahrez and Jamie Vardy have both failed to score or assist a goal in five consecutive Premier League games”. I know the Foxes are still in contention, I am not writing them off, far from it, they are after all at the top of the pile right now, but not long ago they were rolling like a runaway loco and just lately the boiler seems to have sprung a few leaks.

This is the time our manager and his vast experience come to the fore. This is the time seeing Alexis and Tomáš Rosický knocking at the door marked selection warms the cockles. George described it as the cavalry coming and that, for an old geezer like me brought up on Bonanza and The High Chaparral, had the ring of truth. Coquelin, Welbeck and Wilshere are reported to be back in training and there’s a new kid on the block who will be eager to impress.

I confess I had a wobble as the injuries piled up back at the end of last Autumn. How on earth shall we negotiate November, December and January and remain remotely in contention given such a catalogue of disasters? This is why I was so appalled that folk were attacking the manager and players after we drew with Liverpool. We were at the top of the table during the toughest part of the campaign with a team staggering from one fixture to the next praying no one else got hurt. I’d have been happy to be in fourth with the leaders still in sight given how many changes Arsène has been forced to make, how many players he’s been obliged to pick despite illness and fatigue. Instead of which we are one win away from regaining the top spot. Things might be a whole lot worse than that.

Now comes the tricky part. After a tough encounter with Liverpool we face another difficult away trip. Stoke have always provided us with a challenge. Last season they produced a stunning start to the equivalent fixture and left us all reeling. In recent times  our record in the Potteries in all competitions is L, L, W, L, D, D, L, L. One might be excused for finding this extremely uncomfortable reading. Especially given how much we would love to win today.

There are indications that we will face a different kind of Stoke team. That the years of kicking their opponents into submission with the full and frank approval of the match officials are a thing of the past. Stokelona is being bandied about and the one time I’ve watched them this season they were indeed passing and moving in a very impressive fashion. I wonder if they’ll regress given that record against us. I wonder if Mark Hughes has the guts to ask them to continue trying to out pass and out play the opposition. If so it will make for an intriguing spectacle. A genuine football match decided, perhaps, in favour of the better team. Imagine that. In their last six Premier League matches they’ve beaten Man United comfortably and got the better of a seven goal encounter with Everton at Goodison. On their last outing they won easily against Norwich and they’ve lost the other two against an out of form Palace and a struggling West Brom.

I get deja vu every time I write these things. You simply cannot learn anything from looking at recent form. Every team has so many rogue results, beating sides you don’t expect them to and dropping supposedly easier points. The best thing we can do is hope Mr Hughes has the courage of his convictions and opts for a footballing encounter today. That our lads will be buoyed up at the prospect of the Seventh Cavalry pounding over the hill, and that they can draw strength from the knowledge that the mid season trough is behind them.

Can we do it? Damn right we can. Will it be easy? I very much doubt it. One thing is certain, my belief in the squad, the manager and the club as a whole has never been stronger and win lose or draw that will not change. What Arsenal fan could possibly say otherwise?

120 Comments

Arsenal: Examination taken and passed

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Dzǎo-anh Positivistas,

Sky and BT often blather on about the “superior quality/best in the world etc” of the Premier League with no apparent justification but in terms of entertainment that was a great contest last night. Congratulations to both teams and both managers for putting on a spectacle that gripped from the first whistle to the final seconds. Action packed, end-to-end. You name the cliché, this game had it. Technically the football was probably no better than 7/10 but whatever the game lacked in precision it made up for in sweat and a mutual desperation to finish ahead. Even the foul weather added to the drama !

Of the players in old gold picking out names from such an intense match is difficult, but I shall try. There may still be one or two out their purporting a knowledge of football who have their doubts about Joel Campbell but last night he stamped his excellence on the game with two beautifully weighted and directed passes for the opening and third goals. When Joel was not the creator he was tirelessly working, tracking, running, tackling and putting himself about. I get the impression he is a lot “tougher” than two months ago, much, much harder to knock off the ball, much quicker back on his feet. His combination with young Hector has flowered in recent weeks, and last night they presented with an unstoppable combination on our right flank.

The second name out of the hat must be Olivier Giroud. To lead the line against two large centre backs away from home is no easy task. The Frenchman had to content himself with scraps in the opening, but from those meagre pickings he made a tasty meal for first Aaron, then provided the deftest of flicks to leave the Liverpool keeper embarrassed as we pulled back level for the second time. Olivier’s goal in the 53rd minute was the pick of the night, and could be one of the best he ever scores in his career. Perfectly engineered movement to turn, to strike the ball and to place the shot into the far corner. Magnifique young man.

Olivier at Anfield

Of the home side I thought they were a credit to their club which are words that I could not have uttered on the evidence of their feeble Premier League form and watched them crumple at Vicarage Road a few weeks back. Firmino finally provided a clue as to why he cost almost £30 million in the Summer and while Henderson is the Nissan Micra equivalent to Mesut’s Mercedes Benz the Englishmen ploughed up and down all night to some effect.

What is perhaps baffling is Klopp’s reliance on Simon Mignolet who I thought should have done much better with two of our goals. And his cack-handedness is hardly a one off is it? The Belgian has made error after error in games for the Merseyside club ever since his arrival. In a world where league tables based upon snatches of data dominate could anyone direct me to the one which lists goalkeepers graded on points costing errors ? Mignolet would surely have dominated that unwanted competition season after season. By way of cross reference to the Liverpool keeping puzzle I checked Pepe Reina’s age. He is younger than Petr Cech. Nice one Brendan.

Overall a fair result, a point apiece on a night when had either side lost it would have been a cruel ending for such endeavour.

A test for our title credentials last night which we passed, another to come.

Onwards to the Potteries on Sunday and I am sure we are expecting another rollicking ( I think that is the word I am looking for ?) contest at the hands and probably the gloves of Sparky’s men.

Enjoy your Thursday.

 

 

 

 

 

187 Comments

Arsenal Versus Liverpool: Tuning Up The Orchestra

Our little break from the long mountainous climb to the Premier League summit didn’t last long. A quick kick about on the plateau which is the FA Cup third round with hard working but ultimately out classed, out passed, out manoeuvred and out scored Sunderland and we are back onto the steep slopes. We travel to Anfield to face a Liverpool side against whom, by my calculations, we are two points down. How so? Well I think we did enough to beat them at our place when they last visited and as such a home draw left us smarting. It would be rather nice to get those points back tonight and despite their struggles against Exeter I doubt it will be an easy task.

Liverpool at Anfield is never to be taken lightly whatever their recent form and like many teams they will raise their game when we are in town. There is much being made of the mutual respect between the managers and I’m quite happy about that. Far too much hot air is wasted attempting to raise up the mean minded, low brow abuse and petty school yard insults trotted out by certain coaches. Too much ink spilled trying to convince a gullible public that such pathetic barbs constitute ‘mind games’ or some sort of clever psychology. I’m much happier to hear that Herr Klopp’s opinion of Arsène just keeps going up and up. Much is also being made of the results between the two managers all of which have occurred in Champion’s League matches between Arsenal and Dortmund. I’m not entirely convinced that there is much relevance here as the German side were settled, familiar with their manager’s tactics and style of play and to a large part chosen for their ability to work well within his chosen structure.

Since arriving on Merseyside Jürgen Norbert has faced the usual challenges of jumping into a new set up with new playing staff and with the season already under way. He has also been beset with injury problems exacerbating his desire to get his team playing his preferred brand of heavy metal football. I certainly don’t think it’s fair to judge him until he’s had a lot more time to build his own squad and instil his methodology. Having said all that he was unbeaten in his first six games in charge and under his watchful eye Liverpool have beaten Chelsea and Man City and absolutely hammered Southampton. The Ethiad result was perhaps the most eye catching but in such a topsy turvy unpredictable season who can say? Losing to Watford, Crystal Palace and Newcastle while stuffing the filthy rich Oil City and beating high flying Leicester is kind of par for the course these days.

So as you’ve probably guessed I’m delivering my well worn ‘anything can happen’ sermon on this clear and crisp Wednesday morning.

Despite that horrible and quickly forgotten blemish down at St Mary’s we sit atop the current form table. Taken over the previous six outings there are five green squares all with a nice plump W inside them. Liverpool’s inconsistency is on the other hand more frenetic than ours and laid bare by the same table which shows them losing three, drawing one and winning the remaining two.

If I was a Liverpool fan, and I do know a couple, I’d be most concerned about the defence. King Kolo looked lost when we tore into them at The Emirates last season. Unable to cope with our pace and invention he was, if not actually a liability, then certainly bypassed with ease on more than one occasion. He nearly gifted us a goal in the fifth minute but in fairness responded quickly to clear the danger after his keeper parried Aaron Ramsey’s shot. I highlight Kolo as he is nearly a year older now and pulled up with what looked like cramp recently making him doubtful for this game. If he doesn’t start Liverpool’s new signing Steven Caulker could make his début.

I’d hope either an ageing or makeshift centre back pairing would provide a splendid playground for Theo to dance through and Mesut to weave his magic threads in and around but of course I am not manager of Arsenal and there is no guarantee Theo will even start. With Ox showing signs of getting over his injury lay off and Campbell little short of a revelation our patched up squad has actually played itself into the kind of form where Arsène has, if not selection headaches, then at least selection mild discomfort. Our skipper is back from the dead and back in the mix, Calum Chambers has looked a little raw but has acquitted himself very well in midfield and Mathieu Flamini, much to the chagrin of the transfer junkies and haters, hasn’t put a foot wrong.

Will Arteta and Flamini play at the base of the midfield à la the Santi / Coquelin axis and allow Aaron to reprise his more attacking role starting nominally on the wing but drifting all over the pitch and creating havoc in the opposition defence? If so who misses out? Or has Aaron now convinced Arsène of his credentials running from deep, or does the ‘Ox through the middle’ experiment continue? Isn’t it nice to have such conundrums? Is the plural of conundrum actually conundra? We live in an uncertain world and must learn to accept that there are some things we simply cannot know and much we cannot control.

Speaking of the Lazarus like return of our forgotten heroes, I turned to Arsenal.com in an idle moment yesterday to be greeted by the heart warming sight of a photograph of Tomáš Rosický. The diminutive maestro was in bib and gloves and darting between training mannequins in much the same way as he darts through Spurs defenders. It was a vision for me. There are plenty of arguments among Arsenal fans and one of the myths about this blog is that we discourage and actively stifle debate. Nothing could be farther from the truth. Many is the time we like to argue over who is Arsenal’s best or most creative or most important player. Which was the best goal, who is better in any given position. For me the whole best player debate is a little disingenuous as we aren’t really saying player x is better than player y, we are actually saying player x is my favourite.

Doesn’t matter if Mesut can glide past opposition midfielders as if they’ve been turned to stone and pass better than Koscielny, because he can’t do what Kos can. Similarly stick Mesut in goal and Petr behind the centre forward and we’d be in trouble. So I prefer the debate over who are our favourite players at the club. For me right now it is Tomáš . Has been for years in fact. I love plenty of the others of course but our number seven makes me smile with his audacity, ebullience, enthusiasm, invention and his style. He is at the stage of his career where he has nothing to prove to anybody and has all the experience he needs to draw on for any given situation. I hope he will be back as soon as possible, it’s a shame he isn’t adding to the selection problems this evening, but as he enters the twilight of a cruelly foreshortened Arsenal career he can be absolutely vital to the latter half of our season.

Don’t expect me to be too rational about the club I support, don’t expect me to predict victory every week. Do expect me to turn a blind eye to the mistakes of my favourites and to glory in every little thing they do well. I want those two points back tonight but most of all I want to be around to enjoy a glorious swansong from our own little Mozart.

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Arsenal Should Win The Title Says The Data

premier-league-trophy

How often do we hear the old cliché “football is all about emotion”? While this may be used to explain the wild swings in opinions and attitudes of pre and even pubescent supporters of Arsenal Football Club, it can in no way excuse such conduct by the mainstream media as well as other opinion-leaders (bloggers, podcasters, etc) who pound the Arsenal beat in both print and electronic media. It took me a while in adult life to understand that exploiting emotions has been a longstanding practice of politicians and their stenographers in the media, who see a gullible, ignorant public as vital in maintaining their power and dominion over us. How else could they implement and sustain policies that are alien to the interests of the majority.

I apply the same paradigm to Arsenal-football as I do to current affairs. Four months ago, only four games into the season, after eking out a 0:1 victory over Newcastle, the mainstream-media went into hyperdrive with doom and gloom.

Alan Shearer, now a Match-of-the-Day supremo, opined:
“Not hard to judge Arsenal. They need a top class center forward.”

Danny Mills, Shearer’s frequent sideman on the Beeb, was equally prophetic:
“Arsenal are going to struggle this season.”

Arash Heckmat, who covered the game for the Mirror, had a gloomy narrative:
“There are still big question marks over Arsenal….”

Admittedly the Gunners did not have the best of start to the season. After 4 games they had scored three (3) and conceded three (3). Arsene admitted before the Newcastle game that performances had been “very average.”

In comparison Manchester City was on fire. Four games, four victories, scoring 10 goals (2.5 goals per game) and zero (0) goals conceded. Manchester City’s official twitter account bragged:
“City break club record with tenth consecutive league victory!”

Similarly, the media was blowing City’s trumpet. With the exception of DeBruyne, they had by that time done everything Wenger was later made infamous for apparently neglecting, i.e. making a massive spend on outfield players:
Sterling – £49M
Mangala – £32M
Delph – £8M
Otamendi – £33M
DeBruyne – £54.5M

That, girls and boys, adds up to a cool £176.5 million to supplement an already expensive squad containing the likes of Aguero, Silva, Toure and Kompany to name a few. Given such massive spending by our main title rival, on what is generally accepted are quality players, how can the media now say with any credibility that the quality of the Premier League is less than normal? Is it any coincidence that such a thesis gets traction because Arsenal are now top of the table due to the manager standing by the quality of his squad and refusing to spend wildly? Similarly, we currently have media whore and club parasite Piers Morgan flogging the meme that the FA Cup is no longer a big trophy conveniently after Arsenal has won it twice in succession and showing a strong commitment to winning it three in a row.

But I digress. Going back to late August-early September the MSM had established a narrative that big spending City was well on the way to smashing all before them and Arsenal was going to struggle. Some of us amateur bloggers, including yours truly, refused to drink the kool-ade. I said in my September blog:
“As with City and goal scoring, it is questionable whether this level can be sustained over the season given it is relatively the same midfield over the past 2-3 years.”

Since then they have gone from 2.5 to 1.95 Goals  per game compared to a 3-year average of 2.2. Most importantly they are leaking goals, from a statistical impossible 0 GA per game to 1.05 which is above their 3-yr average of 0.96. Talk about being brought back to earth with a thud.

As for Arsenal, after reviewing the statistics, I tried to convince my readers that far from dying, Arsenal was very much alive and based on immediate past history would soon get the results that would put the club in title-winning contention. The proof is clearly in the pudding; four months later we are now top of the table.

After 20 games, relying solely on descriptive statistics, I have come to the conclusion that the club is doing well but is still under-performing in some key areas. The figures suggest it is reasonable to expect improved performances in the second half of the season but not as dramatic as between games 4 and 20. I will use the following series of graphs to make my point. Note that the information used is publicly available at Squawka.com and I have compiled the data and color coded the information as follows:
Red: 3-yr Average
Amber: 4-week Average (1st 4-weeks of 2015-16 EPL season)
Green : 20-week Average (1st 20-weeks of 2015-16 EPL season)

Graphic #1: Goals For Per Game

Goals For

It was not long ago, for weeks after Newcastle, there was virtual panic inside and outside the Arsenalsphere because the club had stumbled out of the box with a mere 0.75 Goals Scored per game. Two competing narratives were “Giroud could never lead Arsenal to a title” and “Walcott could never be a central striker.” Even though the club had a three-year average of 1.85 goals per game with the mostly same combo,  instead of concluding that the scoring rate  was an extreme aberration, MSM-bloggers-podcasters in general instead chose to incite fans into demanding a new world-class striker. Four months later, with Giroud (10-goals) leading the way, AFC is scoring at an average of 1.7 goals per game and seemingly destined to meet our usual standard.

Graphic #2: Chances per Game

20 Chances per game

This is one metric that was simply off the charts at the end of August; AFC was creating an average of 16.25 chances per game compared to the prior three-year average of 11.71. The team has now regressed closer to the mean but clearly at a higher rate than previous years. Seems it is the Özil effect.

Graphic #3: Conversion Rate

20 Conversion rate

This picture speaks more than a thousand words. Historically AFC converts chances at a near 16% clip and after Newcastle the MSM and its echo-chamber went into emotional overdrive as the team stumbled at 5%. It begs the question how could the media and their lemmings project that a top club like Arsenal would sustain such a low rate. Sixteen games later they are converting at 14%, just about 2% off the 3-year standard. As for that lamp-post Giroud, he is knocking them in at 20.9%. In comparison, Aguero, almost everybody’s PL benchmark, when fit manages 24.1% and Lewandowski, arguably Europe’s best striker, is at 20.3%.

Graphic #4: Shot Accuracy

20 Shot Accuracy

The shot accuracy story is similar to conversion rate already discussed. Interestingly there is a perfect equivalence with Giroud’s shot accuracy at 50%, as measured by Squawka, compared to the club’s. Is there a statistician willing to do a correlation coefficient (“r”)? That is beyond the scope of this blog but it should make an interesting line of inquiry for those who need confirmation of Giroud’s current importance to the club.

Graphic #5: Goals Against Per Game

20 Games AgainstFinally, graphic #5 demonstrates that while AFC was unable to sustain a miserly 0.75 Goals Against after four games, the club is defending even better than it did in prior years, only conceding  at 0.9 goals per game compared to 1 gpg. In a game of small margins, if that rate is sustained until May, the club would concede only 34 goals over the season. That would best any of the recent season’s efforts, practically Chelsea-esque who in the past three seasons conceded an average of 33.

From the data above, with no further injuries and some key players returning from the sick-bay, it is clear that Arsenal has the capacity to improve in all the key metrics that indicate success. The only exception I would make are those crazy Chance Creation numbers. Goal-scoring, in particular, I am convinced that with Alexis(soon returning to fitness), Giroud, Theo and Ramsey meeting their average numbers plus an improving Campbell, I can easily see us getting back to that 1.85 average. That means 36 more goals in 18 matches or 2 goals per match. Given our ability to hold teams to an average of one goal per game, such goal-scoring and defending is title winning form.

In the same breadth it must be recognized that that City has the capacity to sustain a high performance level and win the title. Those attacking players they signed are not chopped liver. It is well chronicled that their defending is the problem. Mangala and Otamendi must be an example of the biggest waste of £65 million by a football club, and an indictment of the mantra that a club must pay over the odds to improve their league position. Setting aside their profligacy, the data below clearly shows if MCFC can improve their goal scoring and defending even marginally they could be a real force.

MCFC 3-Yr Avg 4 Games 20 Games
GF per Game 2.20 2.50 1.95
Chances Per Game 12.40 11.75 13
Conversion Rate 16% 17% 15%
Shot Accuracy 48% 60% 52%
GA per Game 0.96 0 1.05

But my focus is Arsenal, not City. I am concerned that the media narrative is settling for the sentiment that Arsenal will win the title. I must emphasize that in the prediction business, media sentiment is a contrary-indicator. Their standard procedure is to assume that the most recent results are a predictor of future performance. To the contrary, any serious student of the social sciences  would have learnt that historical consistency is the only reliable indicator of future success. No wonder Arsene Wenger emphasizes consistency for himself and his teams. With clearly inferior squads during the barren years his teams were among the top 3 or 4, never less. In the past three years he has been able to acquire better players, and as evident by 2015 statistics (AFC being the team that earned most points in the calendar year), we can predict with a reasonable degree of certainty that with better quality players, Arsene’s team will either meet or exceed their 3-year average.

As I concluded four months ago: “Unlike the media, which thrives on emotion, in the silent statistical world, there are no headlines. There are no narratives. No excuses. No hope and no despair. Just data.” And that data suggests Arsenal has done well and will do better.

May cannot come too soon for me to see how right or wrong I am.

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Arsenal – Black Cat Episode 2

 

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Hyvää huomenta Positivistas,

I admit I anticipated problems this morning in producing anything vaguely readable or fresh about yesterday’s game. Different competion to the 4th December but same score, same result, almost the same players, same one-eyed nonsense from Sam Allardyce about how his side deserved “more” from the game, same weather, same bloody goal-scorers for Gawd’s sake….Ok Ok, Lee Cattermole was not booked but could I weave 600 words from such a handful of limp straw ? …………… What is an artist to do ??!

Well like all the truly greats when faced with a blank canvas I go out and steal.

And my choice of burglary victim was “A Love Supreme” the biggest and, it seemed to me, the most sophisticated of Sunlun fan sites. Those Mackems and their match report did not disappoint;

“Sunderland lost 3-1 away to Arsenal in a game where we were undone by a side with far more quality in their ranks. An early goal from Jermain Lens gave the travelling fans hope, but three great goals from Arsenal saw us eliminated from the FA Cup at the first hurdle.”

“Sam Allardyce had explicitly stated he would name a team of youngsters down at Arsenal, partly down to our league position, but also down to the horrendous fixture congestion which we’d been conned into, having to play three games just days apart. Whether he had a change of heart, or it was just mind games, that wasn’t how the starting XI ended up, at all.”

I could not have put it better myself, saved all that tedious crowing about us being clearly the better side. (Using a word like “explicitly” about Fat Sam’s pronouncements is also ‘cutting edge’ in my view). Describing the second half they went on to say;

“Their passing was very impressive, and the pace in which they played seemed too sophisticated for us.”

“It was almost deja vu the way Arsenal worked their way in for the second goal — passing, moving, and scoring goals is obviously something they’re proficient in, unfortunately we wouldn’t know anything about that, ourselves”

And for all our readers interested in the topic of refereeing A Love Supreme’s commentator added this pithy observation;

“Arsenal should have scored again after Giroud was played through on goal. He was brought down by Deandre Yedlin, who just full-on charged into him. It was a definite penalty, but the ref wasn’t having it. Hilarious. Not very often those decisions go our way, and what a waste of a time to cash that in. The game is already gone!”

 Such painfully honest writing deserves to be read in its whole excruciating sequence of revelation and self torture. It is the sheer truthfulness that gets me. (I’m welling up here) I attach a link at the bottom of the page.

As I say I think they have it spot on. We were far superior from minute one to minute ninety three. We found it difficult to score a second and really get a solid grip on the game but the introduction of Aaron and Mikel raised the pace of our attacking game in the final third and the quality of our passing just above the level that Sunlun could cope with. The outcome after that was pretty much inevitable.

Pats on the back for Joel and young Alex Iwobi, the Ox was much livelier and even Theo was much more involved. Chambers is growing into his job in midfield, bit erratic but loads of energy. And don’t forget Cech. What saves Petr had to make where performed in a manner that made the difficult look common-place, a trait of all great keepers.

If I was looking for areas of improvement I thought we looked a little edgy in the centre of defence to the high ball and Fetcher caused us a few problems. I expect Per will be back for Anfield as instead of the ageing Fletcher it will be Benteke swooping through the air six yards out.

Enjoy your Sunday and roll on Wednesday.

http://www.a-love-supreme.com/Match%20Reports/matcharsenalawaycup.htm