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Arsenal – the chimes of lunchtime

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Good afternoon Positive Arsenal,

A 0-0 draw against the Championship leaders was certainly not the result that I and probably any Arsenal fans were expecting, and it would have been the hardest of Hull die-hards that have predicted they would escape from the Ems with draw. But there we are, that is football, ever unpredictable. The underdogs sometimes have their day, and as often is these they earn their reward through hard work, playing to the limit of their abilities, and with a sprinkling of luck. So it was for the East Yorkshire side today. The term often used about a 0-0 draw is “stalemate”. The game was never stalemate, and into the 95th minute the result could have been ours. Entertaining, played in a good spirit. No obvious injuries and no red cards for either side. Most welcome.

Of our own lads I thought everyone put in a good effort. Six of our usual starting side rested and three more on the bench but I was impressed with what we produced. Defensively we were just about rock solid with the visitors barely able to get a strike on target from open play. The occasional free kick that gave them the chance to bring up their tall defenders we nullified early and decisively by Kosc and Per. The Flamster and Elneny worked well together, moving the ball forward and picking passes. Alex Iwobi had another confident 70 minutes, further forward and probably more influential than against Burnley though with less space and time today. Theo started well although he faded later I thought. Joel and Danny looked bright, with the latter looking surprisingly fit after his long lay off. Last week the substitutions resulted in the perfect turnaround against the resolute Leicester defence, this week the three early changes brought no such lever to overturn the visitors.

Clearly the gaping chasm of the afternoon, the abyss into which Arsenal fans on social media are flinging themselves like lemmings as I type, is lack of early afternoon activity for the scorer, that the goals ‘for’ column ended the day as blank as it started. We got so near so often, yet could not quite make that final breakthrough. The afternoon demanded was that unpredictable goal, like the screamer that started our success against Burnley from Callum Chambers. Such thunderbolts do not arrive to order.

As for Hull a very decent team performance from all their players, with the City goal-keeper yet again the cherry on the cake of their particular display. It would be a hard heart that did not acknowledge Steve Bruce’s spots of luck in the face of 90 minutes of almost unrelenting Arsenal pressure. We were Jakupović’ed today, as we had been Forster’ed and Schmeichel’ed recently. Thank God Hull did not play their first choice keeper MacGregor or we might really have found it tough to get the opener.

The sure consolation I have is that one day a goalkeeper will visit the Emirates who will have a nightmare of a display from minute 1 to minute 90. (Manuel Neuer may have fulfilled that Faustian transaction earlier in the season but I am unconvinced).

The second aspect of today’s result that appear to be causing some consternation among the Arsenal faithful is the fact that we will be playing a replay at the KC, as you do. Presumably we will be playing a similar side to that we played today, with a lot of players rested, and the opportunity for the likes of Elneny, Chambers, Gibbs, Alex Iwobi and even Theo to get some game time that otherwise they would not enjoy. Unless Steve Bruce changes his priorities the home side will also be adapted to met their other commitments in a busy schedule. I note the jumping up and down has started about the actual date of the replay! I am looking forward to the tie.  Both clubs are busy, both are vying for their respective honours. We have better players, and more of them. I enjoy watching Arsenal. Bring it on.

Enjoy your Saturday and the remainder of the weekend. DC will be our man with the biro on Tuesday.

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Arsenal Versus Hull: The Magic Number

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All the hoo-ha which followed Man United’s defeat at the hands of a bleary eyed hungover Midtjylland who had apparently only just finished a seriously long Christmas party has caused me a little discomfort.  Firstly if United’s results get any worse and the press and their own fans turn on the players and manager any more virulently there is a genuinely present danger of me feeling a pang of sympathy for them. Only a pang mind you, nothing more.

The thing is (and I know you didn’t rock up here to read about trouble on the streets of Salford, just bear with me ) it only takes a cursory glance at the injury problems, the media witch hunt and the awful fair weather supporters turning on their own for all sorts of bells to ring in the head of any Arsenal supporter. None of the responses I saw to their Thursday night defeat cut them any slack at all and before you start spitting on your monitor and yelling “But look at what they spent look at the money they’ve wasted” just remember what we have said to one another, year on year.

As our title hopes have been crushed by one insane injury blight after another, with multiple injuries in the same position, with players rushed back from injury replacing the newly injured thereby ensuring no continuity – what did we say? We said no club, no matter how rich nor how much they spend could succeed with those kind of problems and Man United are simply proving us right.

However, here is the real glowing flame of truth which flared up amidst the bonfire of United’s, and of course Chelseas’s, seasons. When we said no one could hope to sustain any sort of pressure for a top four finish, Champion’s League progression and a few decent cup runs, what we really meant was no one not managed by Arsène Wenger. If ever there was proof of the man’s abiding genius it is laid bare for all to see – super rich clubs with sought after world famous managers and top players simply cannot sustain their seat at the top table when faced with a huge drop in form or a run of bad injuries. Not in the way Arsène has done, season after season.

Honestly, we should all fall on our knees and be thankful for the great man and his enduring presence every single match day morning.

I raised my Arsenal mug to him this morning, this FA Cup Saturday morning I should say. A competition in which Arsène has, since, 16th February 2013, shown a marked reluctance to be beaten. The Beeb put this cute little video together covering all the things that have happened since last Arsenal lost an FA Cup tie – which is nice. Now all they need to do is arrange the live impaling and beheading of Danny Murphy on MOTD and they will have taken at least the first small steps towards rehabilitating themselves.

It’s an odd feeling when your team begins to enjoy a long run of success. Over the years of course we have enjoyed many such periods, some of them truly historic. On the one hand you approach matches with a certain swagger, a confident belief in the unlikelihood of defeat. On the other hand there is a feeling that the clock is ticking and just as all good things are, by popular consent, doomed to come to an end, so one can’t help wondering how far off is that inevitable day.

I start each FA Cup morning thinking, with crossed fingers clutching my lucky heather, ‘just one more day, just one more, I’ve not had enough of this yet’. I’m not dreaming of a third final (honestly, I’m not), that’s too far off in the distance, just one win at a time will suit me fine.

Hull have featured in each of our cup winning seasons and now they’re back again hoping this third time will be the charm. We shan’t be seeing Akpom or Hayden lining up against the side they hope one day to play for which is a shame for them but good for us as they’re both fine players.

The whole loan thing is interesting. Since Coquelin’s return and sensational impact on the first team the loanees no longer assume that their moves are the first step on the road out of the door. It may well prove to be just that for many players, but doesn’t have to be. What a great incentive young Francis’ fairytale must be to others languishing in one temporary placement after another.

I wonder if he’ll feature today? Something suggests maybe not as he is still coming back from injury, but honestly, the FA Cup line up is harder to predict than the standard first team so I’m not going to waste your time with that. Fringe players get a game, the odd youngster will too, and a few seeking to improve their fitness. However this is an important competition and there needs to be a core of first choice players or the lack of cohesion will cost us dearly.

I wonder if the tightness of the title race and the looming spectre of Barca might have put this lunchtime fixture into the shadows for some people. If so I heartily suggest they have a close friend squirt something noxious and cold into an orifice of their choosing. This is our FA cup people, this is as much worth fighting for this year as it was the last and the one before that. No team will roll over and make it easy for us, everyone wants to beat the holders (oh and please don’t use the word ‘champions’ in my presence. The champions are the champions the cup holders are the holders, end of story) and we have something to defend and something magical to aim for.

I can clearly recall the last time we made it to three consecutive finals and it is a wonderful achievement and one we will not repeat without everyone gets behind the team. The crowd in the Leicester City game were so important not only in hounding a referee so awful that even Andy couldn’t bear to mention him in his match review, but mainly in hauling the team over the line. I trust if you are there in person today that you can do the same again. If not, well, scream at the telly, shout at your monitor and annoy the neighbours. It might frighten the dog, the team won’t know but hey – it can’t do any harm can it?

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Try Understanding Arsenal Spending

This is stolen from the comments section and was written by Double Canister . it is short and sweet, but oh so important.

Does anyone know the costs of the investment in new physical infrastructure at Colney and Hale End? or the costs of little hardly visible improvements at Emirates – like the new floodlights? What about the investment in personnel infrastructure like new coaching and scouting staff?

Arsenal are spending the ‘fackin’ money. And are still investing in youth – on players who may only blossom at the highest level when Arsene and Stan are in a nursing home.

Arsenal have built up a decent war chest for new players – and can go toe-to-toe with nearly any other club for the services of some of the world’s best players – and keeping the ones we have. There is a Euro 16 tournament this summer, many players and their agents will want to be seen in the shop window and Arsenal have a genuine need to find long term replacements for a couple of our best players who have reached the age where they will no longer be able to tog out with the first team.

It chokes me up to even type it, but Arsenal will have to look at finding alternatives for Tomas Rosicky and Mikel Arteta of comparable quality. Perhaps the players who can fill those boots are already in the club, but if Arsene feels the need to shop around – he will have the funding to support his decisions.

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Adele vs Stan Kroenke: An Arsenal Story

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Did anyone in Britain stop buying Adele’s records in 2012 when she bought a £6 million mansion in Surrey OR in 2015 when she reportedly bought a £5.7 million luxury home in Malibu, California? Did she stop being a Britain’s national treasure because she spent her own money to purchase an expensive asset? Was it even an issue?

Compare and contrast the almost negligible response to Adele’s largesse to the reaction among certain Arsenal fans when news recently emerged that majority owner Stan Kroenke had the audacity to use some of his own personal fortune to acquire a Texas mega-ranch listed for $725 million. In fact while the American media (Bloomberg Business) tied the purchase to his ownership of the Rams, an American football club that Kroenke is controversially in the process of moving from one city to another, our malcontents inevitably saw some perfidious connection between his acquisition of the largest contiguous ranch in the US to his majority ownership of the football club.

Yet the same Bloomberg publication went out of its way to assure the public that Kroenke was worth a fortune, estimated at $6.2 billion, pointing out that “along with the Rams, he also owns the National Basketball Association’s Denver Nuggets, the National Hockey League’s Colorado Avalanche, Major League Soccer’s Colorado Rapids, and two-thirds of the English Premier League’s Arsenal soccer club.”

But there was no such restraint from those Arsenal fans who are always willing to stir mindless mischief. Fresh after the news that Kroenke had added to his portfolio of assets, Arsenal twitter was afire. One tweep posted:

Imagine have an owner who put money into the club, instead of just taking money out.

Our PA colleague Andrew Nicoll, in his own inimitable style, sought to impart the facts of life to the incredulous fan:

He is naive this lad, imagines owning football club is charitable endeavour – his heart in the right place I’m sure

I must admit to dipping my toe into the thread but not for long since A5 was doing just fine. However for the rest of the week I kept asking myself the question what exactly has Kroenke done with this transaction to harm Arsenal Football Club. Did he take money from the club? Did he leverage his ownership of the club’s shares to make the deal?

The answer to both questions by any reasonable standard  is a resounding no. But it didn’t prevent a continuing stream of invectives on twitter against Kroenke. This was exemplified last Saturday when our Pedantic George was being pilloried by the multitude of trolls he seems to attract for giving a negative response to the accusations that Kroenke was stealing from the club. BTW, George was at his civilized best I am pleased to say, despite some pathetic attempts to paint him as some apologist for a mean billionaire starving the club of needed investment.

So what are the facts. It is well known that since Stan became the principal stakeholder of the club in 2011 by purchasing the shares of Danny Fiszman and Lady Nina Bracewell-Smith, his policy has been to let the club grow organically, to generate its own surpluses to pay down its debts and grow the football side of the business. No dividends have been taken, unlike what was once mooted by ownership rival Alisher Usmanov. The only money taken by a ownership-related party are payments of exactly £3m to Kroenke Sports and Entertainment LLC, disclosed in the 2014-15 Arsenal accounts, as being similar to the amount paid in 2013-14 – for “strategic and advisory services”.

Apparently the Arsenal Supporters Trust is guilty of the same naivety that Andrew Nicoll reproached the tweep above. They tried to characterize this payment as being irregular despite being fully disclosed. Would they prefer being in the position of Man United supporters who can only make futile objections to the club paying a dividend which coincidentally benefits the six Glazer siblings to the tune of £15 million per year. Yet it is all legal and above board in the best traditions of English capitalism. In fact if the payment to KSE was a shady transaction one can be sure that the minority shareholders, Messers Usmanov and Moshiri, would have long prevailed on Her Majesty’s best legal minds for redress.

What is well known, however, there is a section in the fanbase who would like for Kroenke to be a benefactor throwing money around left, right and center rather than a hard-boiled businessman making sure his investment appreciates in value without overspending.

I decided to poke around the data and to see whether there is any suggestion that his style of ownership is somehow harming the club.

Mucking around, the first thing that struck me is how widespread foreign ownership has become in England. Despite all the sound and fury that accompanied the Glazers’s takeover of Manchester United in 2005, Randy Lerner’s purchase of Aston Villa in 2006 and the acquisition of Liverpool in 2007 by Tom Hicks and George Gillett, the trend has continued unabated. Ten years later, according to a recent piece by the Daily Mail , in the Premier League and Championship combined, there are 27 clubs of 44 (that’s 61 per cent) with a foreign owner or co-owner, Of those clubs, 24 are controlled by foreign owners, who collectively paid £2.765bn for those clubs, now worth an estimated £5.788bn. Clearly these owners justifiably assessed they could make a return on their investment and have succeeded. Those objecting are chasing a train that has long left the station.

Is Stan’s stewardship comparable to the rest of billionaire owners in the Premier League? The data below, which I derived from Wikipedia, is compelling, if not conclusive.

Ranking by weighted average

Of the top nine billionaire owners of Premier League in the table above, only two (Mike Ashley and the Coates Family) could be considered English, Joe Lewis is excluded as neither he nor most of his fortune resides in England according to most reports. The Southampton and Leicester owners were excluded because their clubs only rejoined the Premier league within the past three years.

The table suggests that that most of these foreign billionaire owners have been able to consolidate their club’s position at the top of the Premier league. In the past five years City Chelsea, United and Arsenal have averaged league positions of 2nd, 3rd and 4th respectively. In fact Stan could successfully argue that since 2011 he has overseen a constant improvement in the competitive capacity of Arsenal without having to spend his own money. In contrast City and Chelsea face the prospect next summer of the owners having to pour more money to reinforce their teams based on their disappointing 2015-16 season to date. Even the Glazers at United must take pause despite record earnings of over £700 million in their most recent fiscal year. They spent over £250 million in the past two years to recover from their post Ferguson decline and already seem destined to not make this year’s top-4 thus failing to qualify for the champion’s league. In this inflationary era they could easily spend in excess of £100 million on their squad next summer to get back to the top European level.

Returning to Kroenke, he must have estimated prior to investing an estimated £400 million (this figure was bandied about in 2011 but am unable to verify) to acquire majority ownership of the club:

  • I have the best football manager in the world who doesn’t need to overspend to build a great football team.
  • I invested in a club with a newly built stadium whose debt is manageable and almost paid off.
  • I just simply need to stay the course and I will easily double even triple the value of my investment as the club becomes more successful.

As Ivan Gazidis clearly enunciated in a recent Annual General Meeting the Board’s mission, and by definition Kroenke’s long term goal, is to raise the club to the level of Bayern Munich. While our simple-minded fans may think otherwise, I doubt the businessmen who run competing clubs are taking Arsenal’s ambitions lightly.

In the meantime the Arsenal Supporters Trust and the malcontents flail around like Don Quixote, attacking the Board for transfer spending and issues way outside their purview. Who is going to stand against rising ticket prices and against out-of-control tv companies who change match times at a whim with disregard for traveling fans?

If Adele can afford her mansions, why can’t Stan buy as many ranches as he wants? Aren’t they making a fortune at our expense providing the best possible entertainment money can buy? Railing against Stan may be emotionally satisfying, like a teenager kicking up a tantrum, but at the end of the day how many fans will stop supporting Arsenal because the club is the best run in all of England and playing the best football?

Am I missing something? Someone pray tell.

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Arsenal – “his balls are top quality”

 

danny-welbeck-434333434Hamjambo Positivistas,

What a sumptuous game we were treated to yesterday, an almost 94½ minutes of constant action, unceasing drama in which to lose concentration for a moment was weakness.

Unlike the great majority of Arsenal games I have the honour of reviewing for once it was not the eye catching quality of our technique that caught my eye. It was not a game for the technical enthusiast, nor the fan who enjoys the sight of our lads so are often exercising their silky craft and weaving a route through the opposition half. No it was primarily a physical contest, a ‘battle’ at times.

I would go probably so far as to say that for a number of our more skilled players yesterday was not one of their better games, ruffled and harried as they were by the vigour of our black clad opponents. That the Leicester goalkeeper spent a largely untroubled first half was not expected.

Having recognised that dislocation however those same players replaced their usual deft footballing cunning with a second half of relentless running, tackling and fighting. If there had been hesitation before half time there was certainty after it. The ball was now cleared decisively, passes were placed crisply, we began to push our hands around the throat of the Fox as it squirmed and snapped. The substitutions, which again I admit raised an eyebrow in Norfolk, proved pivotal in transforming control of the game into goal chances.

And slowly, inch by inch, blade by blade, we established our ascendancy on the pitch. Kante caged, Drinkwater exhausted, Vardy tripping the light fantastic as Cech played matador. Leicester crumpled back, more solid, and not much less difficult to get through but they were pinned on the ropes, clinging on, covering up, blows reining in toward a by-now desperately busy Kasper Schmeichel. Arsenal had the force of gravity on their side. 24 shots on target I see – Extraordinary – it made Frazer Forster’s recent evening at the Emirates look like a training session!

With our equalizer from Theo and more than 20 minutes to go I admit I had more or less already marked in the three points. That it took until the very last move of the game to transform the total control we enjoyed to eventually put the visitors down on their back in the most dramatic and terminal fashion was no surprise. We needed to become desperate, and by 94 minutes we were. It was the timing that proved almost agonizing. There was no luck though. The visitors ended on the mat, eyes glazed, dribbling, counted out.

As I said above I saw that not as a game in which I would shine the spotlight on individual performances or point to one player or another as decisive in the victory. The triumph was an outcome of collective will, of joint enterprise and energy. Bring those resources of character together in the coming weeks and defeat against any domestic, or indeed international, opponents, is unthinkable.

As is important when we are challenging on so many fronts it did not appear that we picked up any additional injuries yesterday. In such a physically tough game that is a benefit. That the boy from Longsight was back and sharp is obviously a boost to our attacking options. A pleasant few days break beckons to prepare for Hull and another early FA Cup start on Saturday. The Premier League title race remains wide open.

 

Enjoy the snap of Danny carried in this morning’s Independent and enjoy your break.

 

* and thank you to Amy and Arsene for today’s headline – I know, I know

 

 

 

 

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Arsenal Versus Leicester: Holding Out For Hero

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It was Liam Brady’s birthday yesterday. Apart from the small wave of memories which washed through me refreshing the parts of an old man which once sparkled with the spring waters of hope and ambition, thoughts of our erstwhile midfield maestro set the gears turning. Chippy is one of the faces which leaps to mind if ever anyone uses the words Arsenal and legend in the same sentence. I couldn’t help wonder which of our current squad about to attempt to bring Leicester City to heel might one day be mentioned in the same breath.

All this got me thinking about how arbitrary and subjective is this whole legend and hero and favourite player malarkey. There is after all no book to which one can go and check whether this player or that has ticked all the appropriate boxes to be considered a club legend. Why do my thoughts instantly turn to Wilson, Rice, Brady, Bergkamp, and Adams? Why do I then pause before adding Henry? Why doesn’t Ian Wright spring immediately to mind? My first love was Charlie George, I trembled when I met him during the stadium tour my daughter bought me as a present, but is he a legend? Should Tomáš even be considered given the number of games he hasn’t played? What about David O’ Leary? Robert Pires? Why do wingers often become fans’ favourites? Why so seldom full backs?

Liam of course dumped us for the bright lights of Italy didn’t he? Then he came back to work for many years with our youngsters so maybe that balances the whole thing out. I don’t know. I do know that when he came along he blew my teenage mind. I don’t remember his games for Bertie Mee, nor the period that followed in the early seventies when watching the football on offer at Highbury was reputedly more painful than being subjected to dentistry at the hands of an unqualified, drunken, short sighted sociopath.

It was the Terry Neil / Don Howe era that he enlivened for me and perhaps it is because of my impressionable age that he so cemented his place in my personal pantheon. When you are between fourteen and eighteen you fall in love with music and footballers in a way you never really do again. Bands in those days spoke to me like the voice of the Mysterons in an otherwise blurred and garbled world. Likewise the footballers who played with impudence and artistry have remained with me ever since in a way that succeeding generations have failed to do.

We all have our favourites of course. We have inexplicable suspicions about the efficacy of certain players and are as forgiving as star crossed lovers when our personal heroes fuck up royally from six yards out. It makes, or at least it ought to make, us realise that pointing out a player’s flaws then calling somebody a rude name for daring to do the same to our personal enfant gâté is just silly.

There is no yardstick, no gauge we can run over a player who causes us to slip farther forward onto the chair’s edge whenever the ball comes near him. We can’t prove he’s better or worse or more or less of a legend just because someone else doesn’t like him. Better to just shrug and accept that no matter how idiotic it may seem some people are blind to the talents of your man and insist on worshiping the bloke you consider a loose cannon. Deal with it and enjoy the football.

Scoring a hat trick against Leicester City didn’t make Dennis Bergkamp a legend but it was one of the building blocks which got him there. Given the huge opportunity presented by today’s fixture I would hazard a guess that any player repeating the feat would be similarly fêted, in the short term at least. That fixture ended in a three all draw and the stakes were not as high as they will be as we tuck into our roast parsnips this lunchtime. Today a draw will feel like a defeat and a victory will have the electrifying effect of reigniting a title tilt which has spluttered and guttered like a cheap candle in a draughty attic. I shall not even contemplate defeat. Like a man preferring to pretend the lunatic with the bloody knife is not behind him I shall keep walking towards, and staring at, the light.

We’ve reached a fascinating period in the Premier League calendar haven’t we? With Leicester and Man City having just played one another, the leaders visiting the Emirates with a five point cushion, Spurs facing a trip to the Ethiad – lair of a wounded beast if ever there was one – there is the potential for much upheaval or much reinforcement of the status quo.

I know how we will play. Or I can at least make a good guess. We always try to play the same game, sometimes we stymie ourselves with an inchoate apparently lacklustre approach and sometimes we are simply prevented from playing by a spirited and highly focussed opposition. Our game plan is always to out pass and wear down our opponents, bamboozle them and then strike. What interests me today is how the visitors will approach the game.

Given the gung ho style they displayed in dismantling a shell shocked City one supposes they will come out all guns blazing, brimming with confidence and a nothing to lose flamboyance. They have a very well organised defence, a lightning counter attacking game and a couple of guys in the form of their lives. Will the sudden pressure of this fixture get to them? Will Ranieri be happy setting out for a point? It’s an intriguing prospect. If we get back to our best and Leicester drop their levels just slightly or key players don’t perform for them then we all know what can happen. It happened after all in the match at the King Power last September.

It’s impossible to predict anything this season of course. Form seems to mean nothing, relative league positions even less. When we banged in two against Bournemouth I typed a one word comment – Floodgates! How wrong could I be? I assumed the tap would turn, the faucet open, the spigot be pulled from the barrel and the goals would flow, washing away the modest and disappointing scorelines of the previous weeks instead of which, of course, the game just ground on to a predictable, if welcome, conclusion with no excitement and no more fluctuations in our goal difference.

Would I settle for a similarly tedious sixty six minutes with the points already in the bag? I suppose so. I’d much prefer a tense, exhilarating hour with the winning goals coming in the final twenty five minutes but this is live sport not theatre, there is no script. Another masterful performance from legend in waiting Mesut Özil would be very welcome. Any title winning side needs a player of special ability to have a outstanding season and he is for me, the leading candidate in 2015/16.

A Bergkamp style hat trick or a bit of Bradyesque impudence from anybody would be rather nice too. Today of course the club’s greatest ever legend  won’t be on the pitch he’ll be alternating between keeping Steve Bould company and striding the technical area. He can’t score the winning goal and put us right back into the race but it is for him more than for you or me or any of the players that I want that goal to be scored. He’s the man who deserves another title winning season, he’s the man the players should be busting a gut to reward, he is after all the reason we’re in the fight in the first place.

I hope you enjoy the game wherever you’re watching whether in the stands,  over the croissants in Alabama or the nut cutlets in Belfast. Let’s all see if we can’t come together and help push the lads up that final slope, victory through harmony, boys and girls, victory through harmony.

 

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Leicester City F.C. Proves Arsene lied

Its the new stick used by the malcontent to beat Arsene with. They are turning Leicester’s miracle season from their success to Arsenal’s and Arsene’s failure. “Arsene said we couldn’t compete with oil money” they squeal with glee. “George, this destroyed your argument that we needed oil money to compete” my own personal hoard of following halfwits screech at me on Twitter.

Well they would be right, had I, Arsene or anyone else said that. The problem for them is, we didn’t say that. Or anything remotely like it. In fact here is exactly what I said on this very blog last July.

There have been studies done that show an 85% direct correlation between spend and success, across all major leagues. This isn’t my opinion, it is fact. It may be a sad fact and one we wish didn’t exist, but a fact it is and being a fact, we have to acknowledge it and until it changes, accept it. In simple terms that leaves you a 15% chance of beating the odds. So yes, it can be done. Again I ask though, not why Arsenal ‘could’ be the team to do it, but why they ‘should’ be the club to do it?

People will point to Atlético Madrid as an example of how it can be done. Yes, but they are the 3rd biggest club in Spain and have done it once in 20 years. That is 5% of the time and within the previously mentioned 15% window.However that simply proves the maths, it does not mean they (or anyone else) should be expected to do it. Just that its possible. No one is saying its impossible.”

So there we have it. A correlation of 85% between spend and success means that 85 times out of 100, money wins. For the slow of learning, it doesn’t mean 100 times out of 100. The debate has never been whether its possible to compete with less money, but rather how much of a disadvantage it puts Arsenal (or any other team for that matter) at.

If Leicester do go on and win the title, it will do nothing more than confirm that it is possible, but as I said, that was never in question.

The fact is that since Roman and Mansour tipped up with their ill-gotten gains, they immediately made it (this is simplistic) 85% more difficult for teams that can’t match their spending, to win the league. No one was making it up. Chelsea, and City have won it with United being the only team that was able to have a squad that matched their’s on cost. Only those three clubs were able to pay the wage bill that allowed them to compete for the League Cup and Champions League.  The two exceptions, so far, have been Leicester and Liverpool, coincidentally both teams that had/have no interest in any competitions other than the league itself. I’m not imagining this, it happened. Honestly, its in history book now.

If we glance across The Channel we see that PSG are 21 points clear after 24 games. Is anyone going to tell me this is down to anything other than “oil money” ?

The rarity of what Leicester are doing does not show how easy it is to do, the very opposite in fact, it proves how difficult it must be.

People will say “if Leicester can do it , why not Arsenal ?”  Well the truth is there is no reason why it should not be Arsenal. That said,  you must accept then that any team can do it. Not just Arsenal. Why should Arsenal be the one club that should have been expected to do it?

So let all the malcontents climb back on their perches and wait until they can find their next stick.

 

47 Comments

Arsenal – Good result, hesitant display

ozil

Good evening Positivistas,

With an early kick off, a windy, wet day on the South coast the safe collection of three points with not too much difficulty is the result all of us were looking for. We slide into third place behind champions elect Leicester and Spurs, a week of preparation for the blockbuster seven days hence.

Of today’s game ?

That was certainly not a ‘classic’ Arsenal performance or even, if I am being honest, much of a game of football at the unfortunately named “Vitality” stadium. We started the better than the home side it has to be said, a little sharper and quicker. We imposed that quality with two chances and two excellent finishes, and then settled back to see out the next 70 minutes of the game. For much of the second half however our play seemed hesitant and we were not quite convinced what we were about. A third goal would have killed the game but we seemed reluctant really push for it. It may be I was not the only one eyeing-up next Sunday’s fixture long before the official end of today’s game.

I thought our back five put in a good display today. Cech never put a foot or hand wrong on an afternoon where the ball was affected by the weather. Kosc and Gabriel were solid, but for one nasty first half slip by the Brazilian with Hector saving his arse, and Nacho put in his usual 93 minutes of concentrated professional effort.

Going forward Ramsey played well and kept going for the full distance when others we clearly flagging. Flamster was generally good even though he was fortunate to stay on after his chien lunatique first half effort. The Ox was better and can satisfaction in a well taken goal. Sanchez looked generally out of sorts – not like himself at all – I suspect illness.

For the Cherries they were lively enough all over the park without ever piercing our defensive shield. It was not until the very end that Cech was really tested. Loads of effort and probably, when someone shows me the stats, loads of possession, but no guile, no cunning. Just the same offensive approach recycled time after time for 93 minutes. Commiserative pat on the shoulders for Smith, Arter and Ritchie but their best player in red and black for me was Pugh who might just have turned it. AFCB have enjoyed a good run of results recently and they should not be disheartened by defeat today. I remain convinced they won’t go down.

No doubt somewhere someone is preparing a petition on Mr Friend. As you may have noticed recently if people want to post links to these petitions on here I am content allow them through the filter. I thought the referee was really rather good today, and helped by two sets of players who did not feign injury or roll around (very much).

Onwards to next Sunday from a solid if unexciting foundation today. I saw no injuries or obvious knocks. Arsene is clearly being cautious with Sanchez and Le Coq as they pick up first team action again. We are scoring again which is a relief and the finishing of both goals was good quality.

Enjoy your Sunday and we shall meet later in the week.

(Snap of Mesut sucking his thumb from the Guardian in case you wondered – odd lad)

94 Comments

Arsenal Versus Bournemouth: DNFTT

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I stepped from solid ground and plunged into the vortex that is Youtube. As I swirled and plummeted farther and farther from reality my original intention of a harmless browse through a couple of football related videos became a distant and unreachable shore. Each link I clicked, each clip selected automatically for me by one of those dreaded algorithms about which we hear so much these days, sent me spiralling, Alice like, down one rabbit warren after another.

I eventually found myself watching a pleasant and largely unremarkable video of a wind turbine shot with the aid of one of those remote drone mounted cameras. The only thing of real interest was the middle aged chap seen taking his ease at the top of the two hundred foot high tower.

It transpired this was none other than Brother Joseph Byron who carries out routine maintenance on the turbine which provides power for the Rhode Island abbey and school of which he is a member. He also enjoys just sitting up there, catching a few rays while taking in the views, and marvelling at the work of his governor. It’s become a bit of a habit, he probably quips. None of this is anything more than background to the thrust of my argument, but I do believe you prefer a little context rather have me plunge headlong into some Arsenal related theory without any sort of helpful preamble.

It wasn’t the video or the Benedictine Brother’s vertiginous meditational perch which had me rubbing the chin and set the brow to furrowing. The frown which slowly creased my otherwise perfect complexion deepened as a result of reading the comments accompanying the short film.

Bear in mind the name, place of residence, job and length and preferred shade of brown of the brother’s tunic and scapular were all a matter of public record and referred to with helpful links by many commentators. This did nothing to prevent a horde of what I took to be mentally unsubstantial individuals falling over each other to be the first to shout FAKE! They protested in lengthy detail that any fool could deduce that the whole thing had been badly cobbled together using cgi. They listed with precise timings all the tell tale signs and howled that the entire thing was nothing more than a set up.

It wasn’t. It was obviously, rather dully and very plainly and easily verifiably real. Not the kind of thing anyone would bother faking in the first place and it had been pointed out by sober, unimpaired commentators that the man was genuine, the incident authentic and here, in fact, was the proof. Still they came. Fake! False! Set up! Surely no one can fall for this obvious trickery, here’s why, listen to me, I know what I’m talking about – and on and on.

I asked my son who being a ‘young person’ is therefore more at ease in this world than I. He shrugged, informing me that these people don’t care whether what they’re saying with such authority is rubbish and can be easily disproved. They are all over the internet, he said, and do not discriminate upon which topic they choose to vent. They either just want you to argue with them and get angry or they are simply shouting ‘Hey everybody, listen to me, don’t I sound clever?’.

Stop me when any of this begins to sound familiar.

I couldn’t help thinking of all the pointless, fruitless arguments had online by Arsenal fans. How we too make the mistake of assuming these are normal sentient beings who genuinely believe the things they say are honest, valid arguments or bear repeating. The reason we end up clutching our temples and imploring the world to tell us “Are these people for real?” is because no, not in any understandable sense, no they are not.

The wall of inhibition which prevents us standing up in a public space and spouting gibberish just to gain the attention of those therein gathered is stripped away on the internet and like a crack fuelled rhinoceros on a foreign holiday who has just sat on an exposed mains cable they run amok wanting nothing more than to be noticed or argued with.

When you realise this contagion is everywhere and unstoppable, not limited to football and certainly not to Arsenal, you realise that, far from fighting the good fight, taking up arms against these pitiable creatures is not only encouraging them it is fuelling their egos and filling them with satisfaction. My advice would be not to engage with them any more. You won’t convince with reason nor convert with persistence, they are not listening and do not care. You’re better off coming to Positively Arsenal, having a cup of tea and enjoying the company. Think of us, if you will, as the snug bar in a picturesque country pub and social media a kind of open air lunatic asylum.

So never mind that all of yesterday’s results were treated as opportunities to vilify the manager. Think of the tweets and Facebook posts as nothing more than the howls and yabbering of unfortunate souls trapped in the insanity and purgatorial nightmare of deranged, uninhibited and meaningless lunacy. You certainly won’t achieve anything by debating with them or quoting them on my timeline.

Today the real football returns. Today we have The Arsenal, not that mildly diverting sideshow put on by our rivals, and today we have the opportunity to take advantage of Man City’s dropped points. We travel back down to the south coast to see if we can do the double over Bournemouth. Despatched with some aplomb in the final fixture of 2015 the Cherries were fortunate to get away with a two nil defeat. A similar scoreline and performance today will suit us very well.

When we played Bournemouth at the Emirates we were reeling from a terrible result at St Mary’s and needed a solid display to help us bounce back. Many of us hoped the return to winning ways would be the start of a profitable run. Given the inconsistency of our rivals had it turned out that way we would, by now, be leading the field by some distance. Sadly we find ourselves back in a similar position today. An indifferent run of results has seen us slide from the top and suffer the unspeakable ignominy of watching second rate sides like Spurs go above us in the table. If ever we could do with a performance of style and confidence and a result to match, today is the day.

What of our opponents? Since playing us in December they’ve drawn two, lost only once and won four times. Two of those victories have been against lower league opposition in the FA Cup, their most recent league result a 2 -1 away win at the expense of Palace.

There is only one point between the sides in the current form table with Arsenal ninth and Bournemouth tenth, and if such statistics can provide any sort of guide to today’s match then a close game may well be in order. Obviously I hope not. I want to see an imperious Arsenal blaze back into match winning form but I’ve been offering up sacrifices and flagellating myself in a penitential appeasement of the football deities hoping for this mercurial performance for so long now that I’m getting a little tired of wishing for it.

Will it come today? Perhaps. Hope may be springing a little lower than in previous weeks but it still springs nonetheless. Alexis, our talismanic little battery powered bunny has had a couple of games to get himself back into his groove and the rest of the lads will know that now is the time they need to convert a few of the many chances they create.

We have been through, if not dark, then at least a gloomy few weeks, but the dawn may be upon us. As Brother Joseph can no doubt attest, there are many steps on the way to the top and the higher one ascends the harder they become. The view from the summit will surely be reward enough, we just have to have faith that we can climb farther and faster than those about and above us. Today would be a rather good day to begin that climb again.

155 Comments

Arsenal – Error Code 24

Good Morning Fellow Positives,

I suspect I would be hard pushed to find many Arsenal fans who would regard last night’s result, as opposed to last night’s performance, as anything other than a disappointment. Two points we might reasonably have expected to collect went unclaimed, the single point sparse recompense.

I might however gently point out to those likely to submerge into long term grief that the single point leaves us just two points behind everyone’s title favourites Citeh, and just five behind the still scampering Foxes. Admittedly the result also places us behind the Neighbours which I appreciate would test the patience of St Monica, but a temporary arrangement I am sure.

The reason for optimism immediately practical. Citeh and Leicester meet on Saturday, and the following weekend we play the Foxes and Citeh take on Spuds. Certainly the arrangement of results require us to take our chances, with wins in both games against Bournemouth and against Leicester, but do that and we could be on the same points as Leicester, in front of Citeh and Spuds. Admittedly the results would have to fall for us the right way but that would depend on a bit of luck. Even without a bit of luck and already tight race for the title is likely to further bunch up in terms of points.

The key theme of theme of luck, providence, good fortune etc. leads me neatly ( well I think neatly) into last night’s game and the review of events.

I thought we played well last night. The opening phase of 15 minutes or so Saints came out and put us under pressure and I assume were looking to snatch an early goal before retreating behind what is a well organised defence. Koeman is no idiot and he knew he was in for a difficult evening. When that initiative failed we gradually took control and, as we all saw or heard, created openings in the visitors’ defence. We were not quite at our best but still effective despite Saints disrupting our midfield by being quick into the tackle and roughing us up. Where we did break through, and create clear goal-scoring chances Fraser Forster got his foot, arm, hand, shoulder* (tick box as appropriate) in the way.

Half time came and went and it did not seem conceivable that with the pressure we had imposed that eventually we would not break through and yet, and yet…….

From 60-65 minutes onwards we stepped up the urgency and the speed of our play while Saints engaged in some blatant timewasting that led to the predictable 6-7 minutes of time added on. During that final, frantic half an hour we created goal scoring chances on Southampton’s goal every minute. Shot after shot and headers poured into the opposition and yet again Forster managed to leap and claw every on target effort away. One important point should be made is that where Arsenal have failed to score earlier in the season a lot of the problem came from shots that went high and/or wide of the target. Not last night.  The official statistics say ten shots on target. I am surprised, it seemed like more, much more.

And so eventually we ran out of time. The visitors, who looked exhausted in the final few minutes, celebrated. They will not earn a point in a harder game all season. Credit to Forster, excellent display of keeping and while the pure goal keeping art was absent from some of his saves, he had the occasional flashes of luck that gave his side the result they were evidently delighted with.

For us I thought both full backs were magnificent all night. I thought Mesut and Alexis were excellent. I thought Koscielny was a leader all over the field.

So onwards to Bournemouth, Sunday lunchtime. Let us bring Arsenal’s footballing destiny back into our own hands.

 

Enjoy the week.