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Arsenal – It rhymes with Optimum

cwnz9gmwgaayioeGood morning Positives,

I don’t think any of us were surprised by the result last night as we had been, and were again in Sofia, a better equipped football team than the Bulgarian champions. We acknowledged Ludogorets had some talent and, at home, would probably be a more difficult prospect to beat. However we expected to win, we expected to go through into the last 16, again.

Equally I doubt any of us expected to win in the way we did, fighting back after an opening fifteen minutes in which the hosts shocked us twice. I have checked the script and there was no reference whatsoever to falling behind by two goals, then having to clamber back into the game.

Of the game itself Arsene clearly decided that a decisive step toward qualification was required and started with the strongest 11 available, bar Cech. As matters turned out his caution was well placed as the opening few minutes of the contest was wide open, Sanchez spinning and cutting through the greenshirts, with the Bulgars again raiding fast and wide as they had in London. The first goal conceded was a cock up, from the strange decision by the referee to award a handball, to some static defending by Kosc and Mustafi, a scuffed clump by Cafu (or possibly an own goal by Jenks but we will ignore that) before bobbling past a flat footed Ospina. It was not a classic. Shit happens, but shit has consequences. Sparked by that gift the home side raced forward again, the irritating Cafu turned Kieran inside out, and bingo – 2-0. The second Ludogorets goal was rather good I thought.

Just for Eddy I have retrieved the offending picture from the DT site;

img_2431

Were we unhorsed ? Did we panic – Was it Zagreb Part II ?

Not in the least. A commendable mental strength showed itself following the double setback. We immediately regained control of the ball, worked hard, tackled cleanly and pressed the home side back, creating space and chances around their penalty area. I sensed our lads had given themselves a collective slap and woken up properly. They stood a little taller and straighter. Two well taken goals from Xhaka and Olivier arrived as the result of our dominance. By half time we looked set for the victory and a further two or three goals.

And as I anticipated the second half of one way traffic and the game effectively over by the 70th minute or thereabouts exactly the opposite happened. The men in green, who did not appear to have a clue about defending in the preceding three halves of football, came out in two banks of four and frustrated our attacking efforts. Larry laboured hard, but on scraps. We seemed suddenly tired, listless, out of ideas.

On the break they menaced us and after a first half in which our keeper had almost nothing to do, Ospina was called onto make two saves from Wanderson that on another night would have left us stuffed and 4-2 down. In contrast to the first half it was Borjan in the home goal who had his feet up. Not only did the Bulgars play far more organised and intelligent football in the second half, they also flung themselves on the turf squealing every time they were touched, although on a couple of occasions Granit’s ‘touches’ might well have been grounds for the yellow card that he eventually earned. By 80th minute the game was at stalemate, with Ludogorets content to take a well earned point.

And then, out of the blue, a quick, long pass by Elneny, released Ozil. Our German drove straight toward the goal, scoped the ball over the advancing Borjan, left two defenders on their arse ( see above), and tapped in our winner, our saving moment, our vindication. IT IS WHAT WE DO!

That the game as decided by an exquisite goal from the most talented footballer on the pitch was appropriate.

What an odd referee, very good at times, but a unique view of what constitutes handball with decisions given against both sides on the slightest manual contact. I shall keep an eye on Mr Nijhuis.

On we go then, Europe settle for three weeks – Tottingham next and a very different challenge.

Enjoy your Wednesday.

 

153 Comments

Arsenal Versus Ludogorets: The Norway Of The Year

Bridge In Greyfield Woods

The last time I had anything even remotely resembling a proper job, and we are going back into the halcyon mists here, there was a rhythm, a recognisable pattern to my work year. I was shackled in the engine room of academia, not teaching of course – they don’t allow inarticulate, uneducated oafs from the labouring classes to stand in front of young people and tell them how the world works – God forbid.

Only the most servile and robotic clones capable of adhering to the strictest codes and never risking an original thought are considered fit to be teachers these days. Which is why it’s a good job young people have men like Arsène Wenger in their world. If you want someone to look up to, look no further I say. In a life of insane rush and avaricious clambering having a man capable of maintaining a calm equilibrium in the face of abuse, malicious misrepresentation and an all round lack of appreciation can only provide a positive counter balance.

When I was working at the college each term had a particular character and I evolved different strategies to get through the individual challenges posed by them all. November was a bastard. The novelty of the new academic year had long since evaporated, the clocks had reverted to proper time and darkness was gathering all around. Christmas was too far away and too expensive to contemplate and the true misery and futility of their surroundings had begun to sink into the students resulting in the predictable but nonetheless unpleasant behaviour patterns which inevitably ended at my door.

So I joined Nanowrimo. Because I would be writing against a deadline and under pressure every day the month simply flew by. Before I knew it I would be opening my advent calendar and contemplating two weeks off in the dysfunctional bosom of my family.

For some reason known to the universe but not to me I approach the November fixture list in a similarly uncertain state of mind. Looking back over the years the results simply do not bear witness to any annual meltdown in the eleventh month. This time last season wasn’t the most fun an Arsenal supporter can have, but generally we’ve won more than we’ve lost so I can’t explain the trepidation.

It may simply be that the bleakness of my outlook infects my thoughts  where football is concerned, and let’s face it, we all look at the world through our own distorted lens. Those who think a player is poor will, in their minds, amplify his errors and overlook his positive contribution to the team, and we all do the reverse for the players we love.

In reality then November should hold no more fears than any other month. It isn’t the time when Arsenal traditionally ‘melt down’ as the vacuous lickspittles of the press would have us believe. It simply means another series of fixtures for the players to navigate, all of which are significant regardless of the opposition.

We kick off this mini campaign with the usual worries about injuries. Our last match saw us robbed of Lucas, Monreal, Theo and Santi while Danny is not even projected to start his rehabilitation into the first team until next month. Olivier and Aaron are only ready for a few minutes from the subs bench and so we can expect a few players to be putting in quite a shift before November is out.

One thing the boss could do is rest people for cup games where he deems the opposition pose a significantly lesser threat. Do Ludogorets fall into this category? I’m not so sure. In one respect the argument could be put forward that as we comprehensively gubbed them less than a fortnight ago then yes they are a decidedly weaker team than, say, the Spurs side we will face on Sunday. Results seldom tell the full story though do they? For much of the first half the Bulgarians played some neat football and only the ever alert David Ospina kept us from falling behind. In their own stadium and with a point to prove to their supporters they may not be the pushovers that six nil suggests.

I am of course falling into an obvious trap. That of looking ahead beyond the match in question, contemplating the fixture list for the month ahead and ignoring the age old mantra  of one game at a time. Fortunately enough I’m not the one who matters here. The man in charge who’s decisions actually have an impact will be fully focussed on tonight’s fixture and whatever team he sends out will, I’m sure, be properly prepared and more than capable of getting the result.

Right, I have to find two thousand words for the first page of this year’s novel so you’re going to be on short commons today and for the rest of November I’m afraid. Unfortunately I am not one of nature’s planners. I sit down each year with an empty page in front of me and an equally empty head. They call it writing by the seat of your pants. I hate that I’m like this, it makes the world a terrifying place to navigate and I wish I could spend the preceding eleven months planning but as with every blog I write for you I’m afraid I just have to start scribbling and hope something comes out of it.

If you’re travelling to Razgrad tonight then I wish you a safe journey, if not I’ll see you here from seven forty five. Or eight forty five as my body clock still deems it to be. Either way I’m as excited for another European night as every other supporter  – whatever time of day or year it happens to be.

29 Comments

The Goal Is 86 Points – Arsene Wenger

Goals Green Road Sign with Dramatic Clouds and Sky.

Something really important was stated by Arsene at last week’s AGM, which from my reading has hardly been picked up by the football commentariat and especially the Arsenal bloggers whom one would assume are supposed to support the club.  He said:

“…. the championship will be decided between 82 to 86 points and what we have learnt since the start of the season is every game is a fight and you need absolutely to be at your best to win. That means we have to be really focused on details, keeping the energy inside our club but even more inside our team as every single detail can get you points”

No one, so far, has picked up on the importance of the figure he quoted. Is the goal of 86 points reasonable? Is it achievable?

Reasonable? Given my focus on data, which is now my niche on PA, it was easy to locate the last 20 years of data on PL winners. I calculated the mean average in points to win the league is 85 and the median is 86. The comparable PPG is 2.24 and 2.28 respectively.  The fact that Leicester won with 81 points last year is an outlier and so is Man United’s 80 points in 2010-11. Since 2003-04, except for those two, the minimum for a club to win the league was 86 points. The mean absolute deviation is 4.4 leading the boss to put an absolute minimum points at 82 points. That low figure is chancing it. Clearly his goal to be on the safe side must be 86 points.

Achievable? Given the energy and effort of the squad for the first 10-games, there is no doubt in my mind that they are committed to the goal. But what of the fans? It will be a herculean effort as the club ended last season at 71 points, 15 less than the goal. The PPG last year was 1.87 vs a goal of 2.26 which is a 30% improvement. As I will discuss in further detail later,the PPG is currently 2.3, which is exceeding the goal.  Can the club sustain this PPG?

In my last blog I demonstrated that since 2003-04 Arsenal usually starts with a strong PPG in the first half of the season but has been generally unable to sustain this level of consistency in the second half. I put this down to lack of squad depth to overcome injuries to key players. In previous blogs I have demonstrated that quality signings at great cost were made last summer in key areas; Perez (forward), Xhaka (midfield) and Mustafi (defence). This is in addition to Elneny, Gabriel, Ozil and Sanchez in prior years, all of which has made Arsenal a greater force quantitatively and qualitatively compared to project youth and our last title challenge in 2007-08 which was terminated by the hacking of Eduardo.

But even with these signings by Arsenal, other often richer clubs have also made improvements. City, United Chelsea, United and Liverpool have signed quality reinforcements both in terms of players and management. The current trainwreck at Manchester United is not necessarily an indictment on the quality of the new players but on the character of the new manager whose rancid reputation preceded him.

But as Leicester proved it is not necessarily the amount spent on signings, it is the the energy and commitment of the team and of those who support the club with makes the qualitative difference. With this commitment Leicester achieved a 40 plus swing in points from one year to the next. Compare that to the required 15 points swing by Arsenal.

If the team is committed then it is the duty of blogs like PA to educate the fans, to get them fully behind the goal. As Leicester demonstrated. the united energy of the fans can help the club get over the line when the going gets rough. Every point will count until we get to 86!

(BTW: It is self-affirming that Arsene puts similar emphasis on data as we do at PA.)

The Significance of 23 points

I’ve got to be honest. Nothing major happened statistically for Arsenal this past week-end. The club was supposed to beat Sunderland and duly obliged by dispatching them 1-4 despite the valiant attempts by referee Martin Atkinson to tilt the playing field in their favor.  In yesterday’s match report on this blog, Arsenal Andrew did an excellent job of dissecting the strange decision-making of PGMOL’s top FIFA referee, which I won’t repeat. Safe to say, the Gooners demonstrated they had sufficient firepower in reserve to turn around what was looking like a masterful stitch-up job into an autumnal canter to the winner’s enclosure.

But data-wise, after 10 games, there is no statistical difference between the top-5 teams in the league listed below.

  W D L GF GA GD PTS PPG
Man City 7 2 1 24 9 15 23 2.3
Arsenal 7 2 1 23 10 13 23 2.3
Liverpool 7 2 1 24 13 11 23 2.3
Chelsea 7 1 2 21 9 12 22 2.2
Spurs 5 5 14 5 9 20 2.0

Being this early in the competition, none of the top-3 teams in particular have been able to demonstrate a sustained winning streak, which is a clear signal of their superiority over the rest of the league.  As I have demonstrated from historical data, in all previous title runs in the Premier League, Arsenal has had at minimum a 9-game winning run. Their most recent streak ended at 5 wins. Victory over Sunderland may signal the start of another winning series. Time will tell.

To demonstrate how misleading early season form can be it is useful to compare the 2016 data above with 2015’s  below.

  W D L GF GA GD PTS PPG
Man City 7 1 2 24 8 16 22 2.2
Arsenal 7 1 2 18 8 10 22 2.2
West Ham 6 2 2 22 13 9 20 2.0
United 6 2 2 15 8 7 20 2.0
Leicester 5 4 1 20 17 3 19 1.9

As we all know by now, after barely missing relegation the previous season, Leicester City had a surprisingly bright start and kept improving as the season wore on and won the title by 10 points. West Ham and United could not sustain their early spark and failed to make the top-4.

More significant, in my opinion, is the fact that the top two teams at this point of the season are the same this and last year. Despite Leicester’s success, as I demonstrated in my pre-season predictions, based on 20-years of PL data, there are only four teams with a 95% probability of winning the league (United, City, Arsenal and Chelsea).  Any statistician (I am not) will tell you that anything less than 95% probability is useless as a predictive tool.

Because of the predictability of the data for the clubs named, it is easy for any rational football fan, especially denizens of this blog, to dismiss as a load of bollocks the nonsense spouted by the majority of ESPN and BBC pundits, who, at the beginning of this and prior years, “predicted” Arsenal will not make the top-four, much less win the title.  As is well known Arsenal has never failed to make the top-4 in any of the past 20-years, all under Arsene Wenger.

Furthermore, the historical data is very predictive about making title challenges; when Wenger has the resources to strengthen the team and not have to sell his best players, Arsenal usually wins the league or comes very close. Data from the recent AGM that the club is less reliant on player sales for income, £65m in 2011-12 compared to £2m in 2015-16, is a strong indicator of Arsenal’s increasing potential of winning the league.

As I frequently emphasize, the commercial media has a vested interest in preying on fear and despair (two instincts that reside in almost every human being) among Arsenal fans. They do this by sensationalizing any real or imagined setback the club may suffer. Thus at the start of this season when the club lost 3-4 at home to Liverpool the media and their echo-chamber among Arsenal blogs, went into total meltdown. James McNicholas, aka Gunnerblog, opined in his ESPN blog on August 14th:

“Although the Gunners fought back from 4-1 down to make the scoreline respectable, there weren’t too many encouraging signs in this performance.”

Surely there is something amiss when a “Gunner” ignores a fightback from 3 goals down to coming within one goal of an equalizer, and instead decries the performance. Two and a half  months later this doom-mongering is exposed for what it is, abject sensationalism:

  W D L GF GA GD PTS PPG
2015 7 1 2 18 8 10 22 2.2
2016 7 2 1 23 10 13 23 2.3
% Chg Plus Minus Plus Minus Plus Plus Plus

Improvements year-on-year:

  • Less Draws
  • More Goals Scored
  • Better Goal Difference
  • More Points
  • Better PPG

A reliance on data allows us to ignore the McNicholases and their ilk. While the sample size is small, making it premature to draw any conclusions, it is clearly observable that, performance-wise, there have been far more positives than negatives in 2016 compared to 2015.

Only 63 more points to make 86.

40 Comments

Atkinson 1 – 4 Arsenal – But Let’s Not Mention The Ref

turnip-in-black

A turnip in black.

“The referee’s incompetence has done the home side no favours here having simply provoked The Arsenal into administering a punitive thrashing”

Or so I wrote on Twitter at about the 1-3 point of yesterday’s trip to the North East.  It was probably one of my more sensible remarks on a day and in a match which could have ended very differently.  Certainly my first draft for this piece, efficiently started within minutes of the close of play, sorry, final whistle, threatened to be a very different piece to the one I’m writing this morning.

Carrying one of the original sets of rusting keys to George’s online sanctum doesn’t come without a degree of responsibility, oh no.  It’s not as easy as some of his star writers make it look.

As Steww’s occasional forays into the world of meta-blogging demonstrate, as one cogitates on precisely what to write, the pressure to ‘not let the blog down’ from the lofty standards set by our main writers never gets any less. Yes, Steww’s genius finds expression in a weekly (often bi-weekly) masterpiece that could – and should – be read by anyone, including those of us with a passing interest in football.  Andy Nic’s grasp on a sense of balance is actually bordering on frightening, despite the frequent provocations by circumstance to deliver otherwise. Shotta’s recent evidence-based forays into the world of footballing trends and statistics are, in the round, the online equivalent of one of the Seven Wonders of the Online World (at least 98.8% of the time).

And precisely what should we be writing about, reading, debating, this grey English morning?

Well, my fevered half-draft of a review, started around 2pm Saturday, had the provisional title of:

“Arsenal v Atkinson: A Referee Of Two Halves”.  With a photo of a turnip or some other vegetable of disparaging symbolism.

Frightfully clever of course (said the voice in my head, at least) – but it also tells you exactly where, despite a handsome away win, my focus lay in the immediate aftermath of a game Arsenal were expected to win, and win at a canter.

But what of ‘the lessons’ of the game – what, if anything did we learn from it (despite the confirmation of our worst fears as to the inconsistent state of our referees).  Do we, here on PA want to make Atkinson our main focus?

No of course we do not.  But will we?  Yes, of course we will – if only little bit.

As one of the Twitterati poignantly posted mid-game:

“My love for the game is diminishing weekly because of the refs. They are shocking to the point it’s no longer a talking point @FA. #corrupt” (@Bandoguk).

My Twitter friend was referring to Atkinson’s waving away of Sanchez’s appeal for a nailed on penalty having been hauled down mere seconds before Cech ‘felled’ a Sunderland player who had somehow strayed into our own box – and done so with the lightest of touches.  In truth, both were surely penalties. But not only did Atkinson spot Cech’s micro-brush (or “coming together” as some refs might have otherwise judged), but he saw fit to book Petr for the least dangerous tackle of the day.  Before then going on to fail to book a Sunderland player for high-kicking Coq almost out cold on the edge of the home penalty area.

So that’s one rule for one half of the pitch, another for the other.  Or so it felt.

But was Atkinson really that bad?  Well, thanks to the result, his worst efforts will be quickly forgotten and in truth he probably didn’t plummet to Moss-like levels of incompetent inconsistency which resulted in this weekend’s Jilted John’s demotion to the lower leagues.

But the main point – or ‘lesson’ from this is that at pretty much any moment over the last ten years, Atkinson’s best efforts could easily have resulted in a shock draw or even a shocking win for a club that has, not to be too unkind, always been several levels below Arsenal FC during this same period.

And yesterday, as Andy Nic tweeted at the time:

“Let’s hope we learn the lesson – I dislike relying on referees.”

So, as already agreed, this post-match meander will not be ‘all about the ref’.  Honestly.

Well, okay then, what of the actual lesson that is still sitting, waiting patiently in the wings, to be taken from this frankly somewhat tame encounter?

For me it was the Official Baptism of Arsenal’s attacking Plan B.  You, know, that other ‘option’ we should be able to turn to during a game when all else has failed for 70 minutes and we simply can not get a goal for love or anything else that may be on offer. That we are riding so high in the league is not entirely down to playing Sanchez ‘down the middle’.

Things like a miserly defence and a dominant midfield has a role or two to play.  But the option of having Alexis move politely to the side as the Bearded Wonder was introduced to take just two touches to draw level with Vardy’s season’s Premier League goal tally is of immense significance.  Yes, that’s right, two goals from two touches from yet another of Arsene’s acquisitions that have, according to some of the lesser denizens amongst us, and in common with Koscielny and Le Coq, supposedly not been fit to wear the shirt at one time or another.

Yes, it was ‘only Sunderland’.  But that same Sunderland – away from home – which, with more than a hint of help from certain unnamed friends in black, have stolen the odd point or three on a seasonal basis over the last ten years. So, welcome to the team, Plan B.

As an Arsenal fan, in this modern Emirates era, there are two times of the year we all dread.  One is October and the other, February.  These are the two months of the year when injuries have ‘traditionally’ kicked in to derail our otherwise stately progress to the top.  It’s not just injuries of course, but the time required for the rehabilitation of the mended but not-yet-up-to-speed stars who simply can not switch ‘it’ on or off like the machines we all wish they were.

But wait!

We stand on the brink of November with apparently only Danny Welbeck, out of our biggest stars with a serious injury awaiting a (December?) comeback. This means we go into the next period with an almost complete squad (Santi will surely be back before Daniel’s Yuletide return), ready to rotate and with options galore for a manager more used to juggling than planning with a cold eye, and a full team list to select from.

Scoring four away from home is, for sure, some kind of statement. That we have for the most part ploughed through the opening 3 months like a knife through butter, and with some style, suggest the period November-February will be far less perilous than at any time  over the last 10 years.  That we ended up winning at a ‘canter-plus’, without truly breaking sweat or with any morale-sapping points dropped, is of huge significance.

And those, my friends, are the real lessons I’d take from yesterday’s victory.

 

 

137 Comments

Arsenal – Black Cats on the Edge of the Abyss

august2012blog2Good morning Positives,

All up early and ready for the kick off ? That’s the ticket.

A good opportunity for us to sit astride the top of the PL this afternoon following our visit to the Stadium of the Damned Light. Let us examine the opportunities, and the pitfalls, together.

The home side are in a terrible state. Just two points in nine games, five defeats in the last six PL games, bereft of confidence, already five points behind 17th place Boro and notional safety. Moyes’ stated virtually from the opening day of the season that they are in a relegation “battle”. I think the Scotsman is wrong. From the games I have seen involving Sunlun there is no “battle” in them. In their heads the players seem to have given up already. Checking the record books just one club with two points after nine games has escaped relegation (in case your interested Saints in 98/98 whose 9th PL game and 2nd point came at Highbury). Ten games and two points and no club has ever recovered to stay up. Yes these are bleak, bleak days for the Mackems, on the footballing abyss.

And yet who knows what just one win for Sunderland, one dramatic fighting performance, in front of the Wearside faithful might do ? The only thing Moyes can do is send his boys out to try to find that spark of resistance, that scintilla of pride, and to get some sort of result – any bloody result for them would do in fact. Could Whatmore be this week’s Barrow or Traore !? There will be a full house at the stadium. I anticipate we shall see a desperation in our opponents that will need to be controlled, extinguished and replied to with our brand of incisive, fast and direct Wengerball.

Of our lads I know we await Arsene’s call on the starting line up and whether Giroud will get back in to start or remain on his seat. He has a good record against Sunlun but my feeling is that the Frenchman won’t start and we will stick with Alexis up front. I see also that having rotated the team successfully for the Reading game two injuries have cropped up, Theo and Nacho, who enjoyed a rest in midweek. Whether either will feature I am not sure as Arsene ended a bit vague yesterday, with both restrictions slight. “Late tests” all round apparently. I would be pleased to see the Ox start after a good performance on Wednesday if Theo remains crocked. On a much more positive note, sit down Alabama, Aaron is back and almost certainly will get some action today. I have missed his quality in the final third and if Santi remains side-lined we will rely on the Welshman’s class to open up spaces in and around the box.

I see we have Mr Atkinson with the whistle today. From byword to refereeing controversy and poor calls, three seasons ago, to one of the best officials on the roster. Because the stakes are very high for the Black Cats I fancy he will be busy today.

As you may gather embark on our trip to the North East with some optimism it will be a productive afternoon. Let us therefore settle down to enjoy the game from 12.30 UK time. I shall be giving the fools on Sky hell. For those of you out and about the game is broadcast on Radio 5 Live.

(In case you think that you have missed a day young Stew is organising a very special birthday today and has been excused duties by The Leader. Remember though, the clocks go back an hour tonight).

81 Comments

Arsenal – Healthy as the Ox

 

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Good morning to you all aboard the Positive Arsenal bus,

We stride serenely on to the quarter finals of the League Cup having disposed of Reading last night and tonight’s games take on that much more interest to spot out next opponents.

I admit that looking at the team sheet I was a little nervous. As well all knew from his announcement the day before there would be young players brought in, Jeff, AMN and that Carl would almost certain be back. Six Arsenal players under 20 I am told by those who know. Even those older players, Gabby, Perez, Elneny, Emmy, Alex Iwobi and Rob Holding had played no more than a handful of games between them. ( I guess 50 starts (?) between the six of them) The Ox was the only really experienced man in a red shirt. What I did not expect was that on the bench we would go with what another selection of youth players, barring Olivier. This was Cup football with no safety net, one slip from the high wire and the chances were the plunge would be fatal.

I recognise my foolishness now. Arsene knows these players and works with them every day. He trusted his players and on the night and they performed well, not brilliantly, not perfectly, but professionally and took their chance to show him, and us, what they can do.

Stand out for us I thought was the Ox who was the most influential player on the pitch. I use influential because if you score the two goals that win your team the game clearly your contribution has to be recognised. I mean it also in the sense that most of our attacking impetus came through him and was directed by him. He put the occasional foot wrong, misplaced a pass and/or blazed shot high and wide, but where in previous games that setback would have distracted him for the next ten minutes last night he just got on with his job. He seemed to me a lot more confident and understood how important he was, as senior man.

Of the returners I was pleased to see Carl Jenkinson look so fit and that he managed 90 minutes with no obvious drop of energy is much to his credit. I have no idea where Matt Debuchy might be but I presume that the Corporal will be back up for Hector, and pressing the Spaniard, over the next few weeks. Giroud’s 25 minutes showed he is fit and firing. I suspect Sunlun may find the Frenchman breathing down their necks on Saturday lunchtime.

Of the youngsters AMN I thought did well and looked as though he is next to step up to the PL/CL. We are not short in central midfield but we have a lot of football to play in the next few weeks. Jeff I thought looked less assured and he looks to me like the next candidate for a loan to allow him to get some football experience against experienced opposition under his elegant belt.

The only weakness last night was the final pass around the box and the finishing. The final pass will improve when Perez has more experience of playing with Iwobi and the Ox ( and the rest of the AFC midfield) , and vice versa. Finishing needs working on and Alex Iwobi will no doubt be reflecting on this today.

Of our opponents ? The fans enjoyed their evening, their players tried to keep the ball on the ground and play football. They were better than Chelsea.

Onwards and upwards to the Stadium of Light mes amis.

 

( in case you are wondering  our friend at the top is a Berkshire Old Spot)

 

96 Comments

Arsenal versus Reading: A Royal Flush

bill-oddie

I don’t know what Arsène wanted for his birthday, there is in any case little about this most cerebral of football managers to suggest he is particularly motivated by material possessions. I’ll bet he didn’t have a nil nil draw with Middlesbrough particularly high on the list though.

Fortunately we weren’t the only club with a little bit European hangover at the weekend and the players have the opportunity to present their boss with a belated gift much more to his liking. Reading are the visitors tonight and they will be looking for their first victory against Arsenal, a victory which would surely rank among the great cup surprises were they to pull it off. We’ve played ten won ten against the boys from Berkshire and scored thirty five goals along the way – seven of those coming when last we met them in this very competition.

Whilst that crazy game has been on people’s minds of late I’ve been enjoying memories of Alexis Sanchez’s winner in the FA Cup semi final. I don’t know what it is about the football fan’s plumbless appetite for schadenfreude but there is a particular pleasure to be derived from winning with precisely the species of goal by which we would most hate to lose.

Hopefully Reading won’t still be chafing about Gabriel’s handball – overlooked by the ref with the scores at one all, nor that Alexis pass back to Adam Federici which somehow ended in the back of the keeper’s net. It’s possible they may be motivated by such historical considerations but somehow I doubt it. Like Arsenal they will draw inspiration from looking at the fourth round fixtures, thinking to themselves that a few decent sides will be absent from the last eight.

The matches have fallen in such a way to guarantee that three from Chelsea, Liverpool, Spurs, Man City, Man United and West Ham will be going out of the competition this week, leaving a potentially enticing quarter final for this evening’s winner. Of course I hope it will be Arsenal. In fact, you’re probably wondering why I feel the need to say that at all.

There are, you see, some among us who would be quite content to leave the League Cup to other people. Too many fixtures they cry, too many other competitions needful of our attention to worry about the Mickey Mouse tournament. Odd that it is Mickey who has become synonymous with things deemed unimportant and trifling. Why I wonder of all  Disney’s creations should the most venerable of his animated stars be so derided by association? From now on I think you should refer to the League Cup as a Chicken Little of a tournament, but even if you do I still love it.

There is far less pressure surrounding the games so that awful dread of defeat doesn’t eat the stomach lining in the same corrosive fashion as it does during league or FA Cup ties. There are sneak previews of great young players like Jazzy-Jeff Reine-Adelaide to look forward to. There are first team fringe players like Kieran Gibbs and Gabriel, Noddy Holding and Corporal Jenks all of whom I really like and want to watch. And, gosh darn it, when all is said and done there is a trip to Wembley and a trophy at the end of it no matter how much of a Jiminy Cricket Cup you might consider it to be.

Arsène has rather taken the wind out the sails of us football blog artists by revealing much of his team in advance. The name which most excited me was of course Olivier Giroud. Our Gallic heartthrob has been sorely missed lately. Never more so than when we needed a different kind of threat against ‘boro at the weekend. His defensive work from corners and his aerial threat from crosses are always a massive plus but love him as I do the manager was cagey over what part he will play, merely saying “I think Olivier will be included”.

He went on in much less equivocal style where others were concerned saying “Gabriel, Holding, Jenkinson will play. Jeff Reine-Adelaide will play, I think Iwobi, Lucas, Oxlade-Chamberlain will also play. Gibbs – who captained the team at Forest – will do it again on Tuesday.” Factor in that Martinez will certainly start in goal and that’s nine of the eleven starters already down. I’ll leave the other two places for you to argue over, I’m content to wait. I’ll be happy if Olivier comes through unscathed. With him and Aaron coming back into contention the squad begins to look very strong indeed.

Our visitors’ form is a mish-mash right now.They win a couple, lose one, draw a couple, lose one and win one, which is a stark contrast to our long unbeaten run. Their manager Jaap Stam (yes that Jaap Stam – come on do you know any other Jaap Stams?) has made all the right noises, those you’d expect him to make and their squad is not without premier league experience. Captain Paul McShane has played for three top flight clubs and has thirty three caps for the Republic of Ireland, Chris Gunter will be familiar to all who followed Aaron and his mates as they frolicked through to the  semi finals of the European Championships, and Tyler Blackett and Stephen Quinn are similarly experienced at a higher level.

Our side will, necessarily, be less familiar with one another and therein lies Reading’s best hope of progressing to the next round. As we discovered in Sheffield this time last year a blend of youth and experience, no matter how strong in theory,  can come unstuck against determined, united opposition. The difference this year is, I believe, the strength of our squad. The guys pulling on the shirt tonight have a real incentive to impress their manager especially as the first team are doing so well.

That Wednesday match was significant chiefly for the injuries we suffered to both Oxlade-Chamberlain and Walcott rather than the disappointment of the result. Losing two such similar players at such a stage in the season had a huge impact and it is only recently that either player has returned to full form and fitness. So let’s hope for a relaxing, enjoyable evening, above all no injuries please, and if we can maintain our one hundred percent record against The Royals then I shall go to bed a happy man tonight.

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Arsenal: If Only We Had Santi Cazorla

 

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Last Saturday’s disappointing nil-all draw with Middlesbrough had many of us fans, including yours truly, rushing en masse to the comforting refuge of captain hindsight; somehow the result would surely have been better if only we had Santi Cazorla. I don’t blame fans for thinking this way given the pernicious effect of “Recency bias” on our psyche.

Recency bias is the phenomenon of a person most easily remembering something that has happened recently, compared to remembering something that may have occurred a while back.

Therefore, it is hardly surprising that for most fans our strongest memory of last season, is the period up to the the end of November, nearly midway, with Santi pulling the strings Arsenal was atop the table. But after that nasty injury at Norwich, which resulted in him not playing again until the final game in May, our season went into a relative tailspin as demonstrated in the table below. Although not completely coincidental, Santi’s injury in late November is close enough to compare mid-season with full-season.

  P W D L F A GD Pt PPG
With Santi 19 12 3 4 33 18 15 39 2.05
Without Santi 19 8 8 3 32 18 14 32 1.68
Full- Season 38 20 11 7 65 36 29 71 1.87

There is no denying there was a fall-off in results after December 2015, evident in an 18% decline in PPG between the first and second half of the season. But was Santi’s absence the cause or correlation. (Up to November 29th the actual PPG with Santi was 2.14 but it was time-consuming to do the additional research.)

One must note that the post-December decline also coincided with short to medium term injuries to key players. Alexis Sanchez also went down on November 30th and missed 7 games. Even though he returned on January 7th it took him weeks to regain the form he showed pre-injury. Aaron Ramsey had two major absences that season; the first was pre-Santi’s and the second, a thigh injury, was for 27 days between March 8th and April 4th. Özil also had time-off post Santi’s with ankle problems late March. Arteta and Rosicky, then squad players, were crocked for all of the post December period. Surely the cumulative effect of injuries must have played a part in Arsenal’s eventual demise.

But even with Carzola in the first-eleven Arsenal’s PPG was only 2.05 (or 2.14). In a previous blog I highlighted that an average PPG of 2.32 is the magic number for all premier League winners in the 12-year period since 2003-04. Evidently with him in the side AFC was not playing championship level football at least not on a consistent basis. So what of the prior years with Santi playing?

YEAR APPEAR GOALS ASSTS W L D PTS PPG(s) PPG(t)
2012-13 38 12 11 21 6 10 73 1.92 1.92
2013-14 31 4 8 20 6 5 65 2.24 2.08
2014-15 37 7 11 22 7 8 74 2.06 1.97
2015-16 14 0 3 9 3 3 30 2.14 1.87

Before diving into the data, in one of the classic transfer mind games played by Arsene Wenger, he cleverly downplayed the signing of Cazorla from Malaga, days before it was made official, when asked by the assembled media in Malaysia (where the team was on tour):

No [we are not close]. Maybe we will sign a Malaysian player!

Without a trace of irony, Arsene then turned around and played him in all 38 premier league games that ensuing season (as well as champions league and FA cup fixtures).

From the table above, it is obvious that Santi Cazorla has been the cornerstone of the rebuild of the current Arsenal squad after the break-up of project youth starting with the unfriendly divestment of Fabregas and Nasri in the summer of 2011 and the acrimonious denouement by Robin Van Persie in 2012. In the ensuing 3.5 years, until November 2015, Santi has been omnipresent in central midfield assisting with 33 goals and himself scoring 23.

Two separate columns are used to demarcate PPG(s) with Santi-playing and PPG(t) for team overall. Almost every season with Santi-playing the PPG is better than the team overall except for 2012-13 when by definition it had to be the same as Santi played every game. Except for year-one the PPG(s) exceeded 2 points peaking in 2013-14. Much can be made of why the PPG fell in ensuing years but my main concern is the overall team PPG was inferior without Santi. Surely he is the player who “greases the gears” to quote Wenger.

Despite Santi’s obvious role in making the team better, it is significant at no point did his or the team’s overall PPG hit that magic number of 2.32 which I have demonstrated here is the statistically tested number to hit if Arsenal is to have a 95% guaranteed chance of winning the championship. Since Cazorla’s injury last autumn Wenger has strengthened midfied with Elneny and Xhaka, defence with Mustafi and Holding and forward line with Lucas. Is this sufficient firepower along with the rest of the existing squad to take us over the line?

Comment as you see fit.

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Arsenal: Pointing in the Right Direction

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Good morning Positives,

An interesting afternoon at the Ems I am sure you will agree, and once my pulse had slowed to a respectable rate courtesy of Mr Dean’s final whistle, supplemented a bout of traditional self medication using the traditional method, a game to look back on as genuinely entertaining.I shall take the point.

Needless to say I set myself up for a bumpy afternoon quoting the OneBoro website on Friday concerning the best expectation of the visitors was a good “do-ing”, as their correspondent so succinctly put it. Fool that I am, listening to football bloggers. I was not the only one though. The bookmakers had Boro at 12/1 before kick-off yesterday. In fact the Tees-side club were by no means done. While I guess Karanka and his boys went home thoroughly satisfied on another day, with a keeper facing them less sharp than Cech, it could have been their famous victory. Another clean sheet, four so far, and if he keeps up his average it will be another set of Golden Gloves come May.

Of the game itself ? In spite of the result I thought we played well as a team. As you all saw we faced a well organised side who defended deep and denied Sanchez any space to do his work in the final third all afternoon. Every time we got into the final third we faced a wall of nine blue shirts, a bank of five behind a bank of four, as well as Valdes all day. With our Chilean tiger mostly leashed, and only one scramble and one late burst that got him in on goal, we relied on the players behind him to come through, in both senses. The players behind Alexis I think stepped up, tried to create, tried to take on the Boro defenders and make space and time when very little was available. Iwobi, Theo and Ozil can all take credit for their contribution. My only criticism of them was they perhaps could have tried to get more into the box themselves as targets. I felt that when Perez and the Ox came on we shifted the gear up a notch and for the first time had numbers in the box and the MFC back line wobbled.

The base of our midfield Le Coq and Elneny worked hard and again I did not see much wrong there. We missed the eye of Santi but I would not put down our lack of a goal to his absence, it would be too simple. We did not solve the Middlesbrough puzzle.

Of the visitors  ? Adama Traore was a name that rang a bell although even the Arsenal website had no picture of him. I remember him coming on for the final five minutes in our game at Villa last season, by which point we were home and hosed, and him running past Nacho twice. I remember (honest) puzzling why they had not put the youngster on earlier as he looked deadly. So it proved yesterday, with the boy beating Kosc and Bellerin for speed – THAT DOES NOT HAPPEN! (the only man to beat Hector for speed once was Neymar as far as I know). Bizarrely, until his start yesterday Traore had played only twice, from the bench, for Boro since his arrival in August. A great display of strong, very fast attacking football. And just 20 – I hear the rustling of football agents in the undergrowth!

Teams are accused of “parking the bus”. It is a term of abuse apparently, invented by that Portuguese clown. Accordingly I am not sure what the term means. Boro are not Barca or Bayern. I could see that if they turned up at the Ems, played one man up, held on and celebrated with their fans a 0-0 draw they could be accused of failing to play the football they were capable of, and spoiling a potentially entertaining spectacle. However I don’t really see a team in the position that our visitors are in the PL, with the players they have, rolling up at the Emirates, doing other than they did yesterday.

So as the ashes of one PL game smoulder and gently fades away we have but a short break before Tuesday and Reading. In the meantime enjoy your day of rest and the fresh air of a mild Autumn day.

 

 

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Arsenal Versus Boro: Discipline and Fizz

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Let’s get the grovelling out of the way first. And the excuses, let’s get those out of the way first too. Oh heck. Is there a mathematician in the house? Can I have two first things? Even if I can you’d need to discount the preceding five sentences wouldn’t you? All I was going to say is I am writing at a disadvantage after an heroic dosage of pain killers intended to alleviate the old nerve problem but actually just causing a dense fog to descend.

Also I’ve been forced very much against my will to take up gainful employment again. As a defence mechanism and the only way I can prevent my brain from imploding under the twin weights of tedium and loathing I have to switch off all but the basic cognitive functions from breakfast to bedtime. This means that the usual hunt for interesting or at least diverting topics with which to pad out my pre match ramblings have been suspended along with all other philosophical musings.

I hope the team doesn’t suffer a similar lack of motivation nor paucity of inspiration today. Surely they won’t. Surely they’ll be floating on cloud nine after their joyful six session with those tricksy Bulgarian visitors on Wednesday evening. If there is a problem with an improbably long winning run it is quite simply in our nervous and worried minds. We struggle not to harbour the superstitious dread that the longer it goes on the closer the inevitable hiccup, crash, fall from grace – call it what you will – must surely be. Granted it isn’t all superstition. If we accept that the winning run will not in fact last until the end of time then of course it must be interrupted at some point.

I believe the trick is not to think too hard about that. I also believe that for the players the key will be how they respond. Treat it as a bump in the road and they’ll be fine. Allow their morale to collapse à la Tottenham after the Chelsea result last season and things might become a little uncomfortable for all concerned. This is where having a manager who has been there and long since taken over the t-shirt factory, never mind just bought one, becomes a resource of incalculable value.

Pochettino, for all his undoubted talents, couldn’t transmit the necessary calm to his charges when the ordure and the air conditioning came into contact at Stamford Bridge last season. I’m guessing of course but I suspect that is down to not having been in such rarefied air before. Arsène has. He knows how a near miss feels and he knows the sweet taste of ultimate success. He has learned what works and what doesn’t and when the blip happens we should be grateful to have him at the helm to steer the ship back on course in double quick time.

But I don’t want to contemplate defeat just yet. I’m quite content to clamber up on the virtual surf board and enjoy the ride as long as the wave keeps rolling on in. If confidence is the huge intangible which drives all successful teams then we must have a full tank of the stuff right now. The victory on Wednesday, or least the margin of victory which seemed so improbable for much of the first half, must have done much for both the individual and collective spirit in the squad.

I have to give special credit to Arsène. His timing was impeccable. Sooner or later we all knew he would have to rest some players and would have to give others a start in the first team. That he chose to do so in the Champions League is a mark of a manager confident in the ability of his second string. It also must have helped boost their own confidence that they were so trusted to carry on the good work, much of which they’d had to watch from a seat in the wings.

The hunger on show from the understudies was to be expected but what impressed more was the quiet assurance with which they went about their business. From Kieran Gibbs’ seamless transition from bench to starting berth to the Ox’s sublime finish and on to Lucas Pérez’s wonderful little cameo they all showed the manager what they can do and did it with aplomb. The only reason I don’t mention David Ospina in the same sentence as those others is because I believe he deserved one all of his own. Sod it, I’m giving him this one too – viva Ospina!

I honestly don’t know if these guys are waiting for injuries to take their toll or whether Arsène has plans to gradually increase the involvement of some players as the season progresses. It is an intriguing prospect. Of all of them Pérez is the one I think most likely to feature with sustained regularity. Like George I really like what I’ve seen. His work-rate and intensity are high, his speed of thought and decision making impressive. That he can score as well as provide for others augers well. Above all he just looks the part.

The most compelling battle for selection is between Coquelin and Xhaka – unless of course they end up playing together. It’s Coquelin all the way for me. The most underrated, or perhaps the least overrated, player in our squad by some margin. Caricatured as no more than a hard tackling defensive midfielder, he actually prefers an Arteta style interception, his positional play is extraordinary, appearing to have stolen the opposition’s blueprints before kick off, and his close control and passing are far from that of a boneheaded midfield hatchet man. I give him the edge over Xhaka by dint of not being suspended today.

Middlesbrough haven’t won since back in August. In fairness they’ve not been properly turned over since then, losing the majority of their games by the odd goal. Regardless of their recent form any Premier League team has the ability to beat any other. If we’re going to see Shotta’s streak continue we will need the ruthlessness Arsène is so fond of calling for. With the usual faces absent and Santi a doubt following his early departure on Wednesday we may see Elneny and Coquelin at the heart of our midfield. As big a loss as our tiny Spanish giant may be I’d be quite happy to see them on the team sheet together. Discipline and fizz. They could have their own prime-time show. Other than that as much as I think the Ox deserves another run out I suspect Arsène will stick to his winning team. But what do I know?

If you’re at the game sing one for me, if not I’ll see you here at three.