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Arsenal Versus Bournemouth: Something Very Arsenal

Posted by steww on January 3, 2017 in All Posts

Olivier-Giroud

I’ve tried to gain inspiration for today’s preview from the deluge of football which has swamped us around the turning of the year. Unfortunately as I don’t care about the other teams involved in these fixtures all I got for my troubles was a crick in the neck from trying to do other things while simultaneously keeping an eye on matches I wouldn’t normally condescend to acknowledge.

Of course it’s disingenuous to suggest that the results of our rivals have no impact on our season. The final league positions are decided by an holistic interweaving of results each affecting the others in a complex web of possibilities. That wasn’t why I watched Middlesbrough though. Not really. I watched them simply because Calum was playing and I’m intrigued to see if I can glean anything from his performances.

After Francis Coquelin’s inspired return from the barren wastes of the loan wilderness any Arsenal player currently honing their craft on alien pitches has that delicious potential to become an Emirates based game changer. The problem I have with watching an entire match just to enjoy the contribution of one player is the same as watching the Welsh international team. I’m simply not invested in the result nor the contest as a whole. One doesn’t enjoy a gourmet meal by lifting a single ingredient onto one’s fork and abstaining from the rest.

Not that ‘boro or Wales provided cordon bleu cookery, far from it, but I hope my point still stands. The gastronomic delight du jour in the Arsenal kitchen has been cooked up of course by our Gallic heartthrob. He has been promising a goal of such superlative defying elegant ostentation ever since he joined us. Older readers may remember February of twenty thirteen when I was moved to write these words:

“Out of absolutely nowhere and without bothering to so much as take a touch never mind think about a pass, Olivier Giroud, still some thirty yards from goal and near the touchline unleashed a terrifying dipping shot which would have snapped the Mordor keeper in half if it had hit him. OK so the shot missed the target by a fraction, Arsene got off the bench and signalled his displeasure, the commentators pointed out how well placed Ramsay was and we came home with a well earned point but no more.

But I was captivated by that moment. The audacity, the confidence, the technique. Name three other attributes you want more in your centre forward. Go on. Name them.

But of course the goals started to come. He opened his account against Coventry in the widdley diddley cup and gave us this fantastic quote “This goal has taken the pressure off me. It’s done, I have my first goal. But it has to be the start of a beautiful adventure.” And I started to love him just a little bit.

“But it has to be the start of a beautiful adventure.” Perfect. I’ve been accused of being a bit of a romantic where football is concerned and maybe that is true but like Larry I believe a player’s career and relationship with us should be just that. Wasn’t Thierry’s Arsenal career a beautiful adventure? How else would you describe it? I like that bit of poetry in Giroud’s make up. It complements his physical prowess rather neatly.”

What excited then me was the sense of adventure and invention which all great players have and which provides the moments we love and cherish, briefly lending the epithet ‘beautiful game’ a ring of truth. I think Giroud’s subsequent contribution to the side has vindicated my optimism. The blend of the sublime with an obvious physicality has been present in many of his goals and his vital assists.

His misfortune was to be born into an era dominated by over reaction and the promotion of idiocy which the internet has inadvertently spawned. Had he played in earlier times he’d have been rightly lauded for the player he has always been and not just for one moment of brilliance.

Today the players will need to find other attributes to compliment the skill and speed of their natural game. With an extremely ill timed flu bug working through the camp, injuries still robbing some players of match sharpness, others of any fitness at all, Elneny departing for international duty, and having played just the day before yesterday, stamina and determination will matter as much as fluency and improvisation.

Bournemouth have won and lost three each of their previous six games and are one of those sides I find difficult to predict. They don’t strike me as naturally suited to the suffocating defensive tactics beloved of many of our opponents nor quite good enough to go toe to toe in a straight footballing contest with us. But then, neither did Everton.

The Cherries’ best result was probably the four three over Liverpool who are enjoying their best form for a few years. There was also the six they stuck past Hull but then they’ve contrived to lose to Burnley, Sunderland, Stoke, and West Ham so pick the bones out of that lot. As I say, unpredictable, up and down; they are capable of flowing football and abject defending and their best hope will be our lack of fully fit players. They’ve had one day longer to recover since an away win at Swansea. Precious little you might say but when we’re talking of a four day period it is significant nonetheless.

I’ll settle for a win however achieved but I wouldn’t say no to another slice of scrumptious footballing cuisine from the man who stole my heart over four years ago. As I said back then “A man who should have taken a season to win me round had me in that one sparkling moment of near brilliance back in August. There’s just something very Arsenal about him.”

 

 

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Arsenal – Gli scioperi scorpione*

Posted by anicoll5 on January 2, 2017 in All Posts

olivier-giroud-769566

Good morning Positives,

Palace swept away with little difficulty yesterday and one of those relatively rare occasions when we just about controlled the game from first to last and collected the three points without ever really needing to get into flat-out, handbrake off mode. Palace were a sorry sight yesterday, with a look of the “Championship” about them.

The mainstream media this morning are noisily salivating over Larry’s goal, and so they should. Our Frenchman has never let his head drop once in what is now a long Arsenal career, 200+ appearances. Every game he is in the fight, from first minute to final whistle. The embodiment of POSITIVE Arsenal. After a half season in which he has spent more time on the bench than he would like it is massively to his credit that in the past two games he has scored decisive goals. He is receiving a little of the acclaim his unrelenting effort deserves. He seemed much more relaxed yesterday, much happier, smiling. It may purely be impression on my part but happy footballers tend to be better footballers. Clearly I do not like to put too much down to our chance pre-Christmas encounter on the Selfridges’ escalator but …. well ….. just co-incidence and all that.

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Elsewhere about the pitch Hector put in a mighty 90 minutes and one game the boy will get the two or three goals his incisive attacking and shooting deserves. I was pleased too with Granit Xhaka who, now four games as a starter, who seems more composed on the ball, tackles more cleanly, and more confident generally. I sense he has got his head around the Premier League fully now, in particular in how physical he can be and reading the referee. An attractive contribution from Lucas Perez too, commendably no nonsense as he flattened Zaha on one occasion. I would like to see more of the flinty Spaniard. And did we “miss” Ozil ? Not at all, although no doubt the German would have enjoyed his afternoon against Sam’s feeble fumblers.

On the topic of Zaha I thought referee Andre Marriner played a blinder by the way, totally neutralised the Palace winger whose increasingly desperate efforts to earn a free kick petered out to almost nothing. The Referees Union has your card marked, my son. Cease and desist. Give up the diving Wilfried, you will probably be a better player for it.

A short break now before the trip to Bournemouth and almost certainly a far more vigorous work out from the Cherries than we faced yesterday. Our opponents tomorrow night have the look of Premier League mid table solidity about them, a decent home form and the ability to batter the relegation sides on the road. Another professional performance required.

A short one from me today. Perhaps I am not in top gear !

Enjoy your Monday.

 

  • The scorpion strikes – a phrase for special occassions
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Arsenal Versus Palace: Much Ado About Nothing

Posted by steww on January 1, 2017 in All Posts

fireworks

Firstly allow me to apologise for the late post this morning. You can thank my neighbours who felt it appropriate to detonate explosives at midnight to celebrate one day turning into another. Maybe on June 18th I’ll go smash all the windows in their cars at 3 am. It is after all a special day for me and I like the sound of car alarms. Anyone who complains will get a sarcastic ‘Happy June 18th’ and be accused of being a miserable party pooper.

Anyway I finally calmed the hysterical pets and got back to some sort of fitful sleep many hours later, but then the alarm summoned me to my duty and so here I am. A glance at the Arsenal club website tells me we host Crystal Palace at four o’clock this afternoon. I can only hope our players got a better night’s sleep than I did and that the ‘few flu’ cases Arsène mentioned en passent in his press briefing are not in fact anything quite so serious.

Brushed over in the discussion of injuries this was in fact the most worrying of all. Flu is very different from a nasty cold despite the two often being conflated. I know, I’ve had it and you can barely lift your head from the pillow. A friend once described being so drained of motivation and energy that if you’d told him there was a million pounds outside his bedroom door he would not have bothered crossing the room to check.

I well remember the team being utterly debilitated by a bug prior to a visit to Old Trafford and can only pray we don’t see a recurrence today. Apart from anything else it is the relentless nature of this team, the famous spirit Arsène always praises, which wins so many games. Despite the sneering after the Man City defeat, the ludicrous suggestion that the players didn’t try, or want it enough, the facts are that Arsenal wins more matches in the final five minutes of a contest than any other side.

It is possible that the tactical blanket employed by many of our opponents contributes to this statistic. When prising open two lines of five and an unusually inspired keeper, you have to tease, and press, and cajole them out of shape. You can’t move the ball more quickly forward because you are playing most of the game in an attacking position already. Instead you need to move it sideways, dart forward, step back, try to winkle an opening. This is a game of long, drawn out siege football and usually pays dividends but often takes time. The defenders are sharper, fresher and less likely to lose discipline early in the match.

If we contrive an early goal there is often a flurry of activity, a passage of stormy play to navigate as the opposition strive to get back into the game and we shift gears into control mode. Sometimes we don’t do this as well as we might hope, other times we get a second and the players relax and have fun. It’s not an exact science, it can go either way. Without that breakthrough we end up with an attritional war and for fans that isn’t easy to take.

I watched my nephew wilt as we slowly picked West Brom’s lock last week. I heard his optimism and enthusiasm erode to the point where he would have been happy for me to turn off the match and play some Minesweeper videos on Youtube instead. It made me realise that those awful tweets and forum comments you read when watching this kind of match are actually quite understandable.

For very young children and those with limited cognitive powers it isn’t easy to mask  disappointment. After all we all watch for entertainment don’t we? If we aren’t being entertained then we feel let down. If the careful, patient application of pressure doesn’t thrill supporters then it’s inevitable that some will vent their frustration. The only reason we don’t do that here isn’t because we’re necessarily any more intelligent or insightful than other people it’s because we try harder.

We want this to be a haven of positive encouragement and mutual support not just another place where people can show off their waspish, sniping skills. We could also gain something by understanding those who feel less of an urge to mask their exasperation. In fact at this time of resolutions I am going to try to do just that. I resolve not to get angry with those who give voice to their anguish when life doesn’t go their way. I may wish for a world where all fans become more rather than less supportive when the team is struggling but that isn’t the world I live in and so I need to adjust.

I don’t expect it to be easy but I’m going to try. All supporters who want the best for the team regardless of how they express it are effectively on the same side. Those who wish ill on the manager and players are not included. Oh, and neither are people who set off fireworks in the middle of the night in response to the whims of Pope Gregory XIII. They can go shove their heads up a dead bear’s bum.

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It Was the Best of Times; It Was the Worst of Times

Posted by pedantic George @arseblagger on December 31, 2016 in All Posts

647cc__72260401_wenger

2016 has seen us take a further step towards being a club that can compete on all fronts. Are we there yet? Not quite.The frustration for many fans is that the steps are not big enough or come quick enough and often enough. The huge income of United, and the even greater  wealth of the owners of City and Chelsea seems to allow them to take leaps and bounds, rather than steps.

If you can’t accept that although we are better placed to compete with transfer fees and wages, yet still unable to match the money that some others can, then the rate of progress the team is making could be seen as not being good enough. But it does take the disregarding of this fact, to reach that skewed conclusion.

With the additions of Xhaka, Mustafi and Perez it takes a special type of stupidity not to see progression.

For me its a simple choice, I can enjoy The Arsenal or I can choose to be miserable because of it. I can appreciate what the Team, manager and club is striving to achieve, or I can think I could do better. I can support or not.

There is nothing (apart from some of the fan-base) about this great club that I don’t like, no, that I don’t love !

Its been 12 years since we last won the league, and not once have I felt let down or disappointed in the efforts the club has made to win it. Of course huge disappointment that we haven’t, but that is two every different things.

As Terry Griffiths , my favourite snooker player once said “There can be a certain beauty in defeat”.

So that’s it for this year and we march on into the next, full of hope and promise.

Fortunately , here on Positively Arsenal we have had Stew and Andy at the head of our little column and for that I thank them from the very bottom of my heart. I get some credit for this site, but the reality is I’m just standing on the shoulders of giants. It would also be remiss of me not to thank my old allies Shotta and Arsenal Andrew, and of course all the other occasional contributors to the blog.

Thanks also to all those that take the time to read and comment, after all, that’s what this place is designed for.

All the best to you all in the coming year and UP THE ARSENAL

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Wenger and the War vs Stupidity

Posted by shotta_gooner on December 30, 2016 in All Posts

john-wayne-quote-stupid

Never argue with stupid people, they will drag you down to their level and beat you with experience.”

The above quote would make a very aspiring New Year’s resolution for all Positivists. It is attributable to Mark Twain, the great American writer, who is renown for his pithy but profound observations about the human condition, so much so that they retain as much if not more popularity than they did since he died over one hundred years ago.

When Twain spoke of the difficulty in overcoming stupidity he could well have been speaking about the media coverage of Arsene Wenger and Arsenal Football Club whether by mainstream or social media.

Take the matter of Arsene Wenger’s use and timing of substitutions. At the best of times, even when Arsenal is doing well, the armchair experts ridicule the manager’s predilection for making 70 minute substitutions. Should the substitutions not turn around an adverse situation they are in hog’s heaven posturing how things would have been better if earlier substitutions were made.

To be fair this mindless, counterfactual nonsense has been around for years.

On November 24, 2012, after a nil-all draw with Aston Villa, there was a story by the BBC with the headlines Arsenal boss Arsene Wenger said he did not have to justify his decisions after Gunners fans chanted “you don’t know what you’re doing”

The boss was quite feisty in his response:

“What is the thinking behind the substitution? I will not explain every decision I make,”

“I have managed for 30 years at the top level and I have to convince you [journalists] I can manage the team?”

Substitutions seem to have been an issue that year because earlier in February, the dot com published a major analytical piece by in-house statistician Josh James reporting that:

“…. the total of goals scored by subs during the Wenger era …. 161, from 2,206 substitutions made. That represents 9.9 per cent of all Arsenal goals scored under this manager, and they have come at a rate of one for every 13.7 subs.”

At the time, each of Arsenal’s last three goals had been scored by substitutes, meaning 12 per cent of the team’s total for the season-to-date had come from the bench. Furthermore Wenger was responsible for the best ever season in the club’s history with the use of substitutes in 2005/06, when 20 goals (a sizeable 21 per cent of the season’s total) came from this source (my emphasis).

Yet the nonsense persists to date. The post Man City mourning and finger-pointing by mainstream and social media was replete with examples of poseurs taking a pop at Wenger’s supposedly failed substitutions. Take this quote from the pain in the backside blog:

“There have been countless times where Wenger has waited with a replacement in the wings before it being too late. While I can conjure up many examples, let’s go with one that’s fresh in the memory. Our recent loss against the blue side of Manchester.”

Apart from failing to produce any historical data to back up “countless”, the factual record for the season-to-date completely debunks the statement. As the commentators will infrequently disclose during a match and dare not repeat lest it confirms that the in-house analysts are all taking us the viewers as jackasses (I am looking at you Robbie Earle, Robbie Mustoe and Kyle Martino on NBC), Arsenal has scored more goals in the last 15 minutes of games than any other team in the Premier League, yes within that 20 minute window when Arsene is infamous for making “late” substitutions.

As usual PA readers have the benefit of my research into the unbiased, unemotional data.

Game by Game Substitutions as of Dec 26, 2016
Game No of subs 1st sub 2nd sub 3rd sub Goals bef 70 Goals aft 70 Result
18 3 71 71 74 0 1 W
17 3 65 75 78 1 0 L
16 3 71 71 88 1 0 L
15 3 25 69 78 2 1 W
14 3 66 87 88 0 4 W
13 3 16 75 76 2 1 W
12 3 73 80 83 0 1 D
11 3 65 70 71 1 0 D
10 2 71 71 0 1 0 W
9 3 32 69 79 3 0 W
8 3 67 77 88 2 2 W
7 3 62 62 75 1 1 W
6 3 69 77 89 0 3 W
5 2 67 74 0 0 0 D
4 3 68 82 83 3 0 W
3 3 70 70 74 3 0 W
2 3 73 73 78 0 0 D
1 3 59 61 67 2 1 L
Total 61 1090 1314 1269 22 15
Avg 91% 57 73 79 1.2 0.8

Unlike my high school days, when, during experiments required for our science labs, we would manipulate the data to get the results desired by our teachers, I have no fear presenting the cold hard facts.

My first observation is that Wenger is absolutely correct about the importance of the 70th minute mark in not only scoring goals but game-deciding goals at that. Arsenal has lost only one out of 9 games this season when they have scored after the 70th minute. The sole occasion was that mad, frenetic season-opener encounter with Liverpool.  In all of the other eight games Arsenal have either gone on to win or draw. In contrast, on at least three occasions this season we have scored the opening goal and not only failed to win but, as should be fresh in our minds from recent events, eventually lost two important fixtures.

The second observation is while goals before the 70 minute mark exceed those after by a ratio of nearly 1.5:1, those 22 goals are being scored at a rate of 1 every 48 minutes while those   scored after 70 minutes are happening at a rate 1 every 24 minute. It doesn’t take a mathematical genius to understand that the last 20 minutes of games is the most decisive for goal-scoring and deciding the fate of a match.

Much of the other information generated by the table is secondary to my primary points but some are notable. For example, contrary to the constant carping by the usual suspects, Arsene’s average time for making his first sub is the 61st minute. The 2nd and 3rd subs are generally within the 80 minute window. Additionally, 91% of the time the manager makes all three subs belying the claim by some he makes insufficient use of the resources at hand.

What many of the critics fail to recognize or conveniently ignore is during the barren years, Arsene had a paucity of quality reserves at his disposal to make changes to decisively impact the game.  These days the boss can call on Giroud, Ramsey, Chamberlin or Gibbs to make decisive contributions during that critical 20 minute period. But then as humans there is a tendency to recognize change long after it has taken place; the phenomenon of consciousness slowly catching up with changes in nature.

I will conclude by noting that facts and data by themselves rarely cause people to change the opinions they have long held no matter how divorced from reality; false consciousness it is called.  In a recent twitter post, the boss himself observed a common allergic reaction to facts:

“We were shit today”
Have you seen the stats?
“Stats lie”
No, they are facts
“Facts lie then.”
Ok.

Positively Arsenal @Blackburngeorge  2:49 PM – 26 Dec 2016

My question to my fellow positivists is how else can we remain calm and serene in our support of this football club without the facts and data as our anchor?

Thank you for your readership and support in 2016.

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Arsenal : the Art of Execution

Posted by anicoll5 on December 27, 2016 in All Posts

eu-vote-bullfightingGood morning Positives,

And a fine morning again in Norfolk, and a Bank holiday to boot – a rare combination.

A top game yesterday that had me on the edge of the technical area until the 94th minute. A commendable performance from our lads, one and all. No hint of any panic or fright as we played smooth, patient football all afternoon, always on the front foot, passing, passing, passing and gradually driving the Baggies back. I heard/read some frustration that we were “passing too much” and had “too much possession”. I am afraid that to finally crack open the visiting side yesterday that the game we played was required, totally dominant in possession, pass after pass after pass, before finally putting them to the sword. The bullfighting metaphor struck me as apt. Mesut the torero with the cape and hook, Olivier with the sword as matador, the panting beast stumbled to its knees before its lights, finally, went out.

As I say I was pleased with all our players yesterday. Because WBA were not remotely interested in attacking from open play the pitch was open for our unrestricted use. All three of our full backs had excellent games. Hector put in his most attacking performance that I can remember, very effective and deserving of a goal. Gibbs was excellent and his constant pressing on the wing worked well with Sanchez, and Monreal stepped in to keep the pressure on the by then wilting visitors.

Further forward the Coq and Granit combination worked well against the Albion midfield. Both players have bags of energy and are fast over the ground which is about 90% of midfield work in the PL nowadays. Win the ball, then pass it swiftly to the players who don’t waste it. Granit – the shooting from 25 yards son – leave it for now eh?

And finally the men at the tip of the spear, Alexis and Larry, both of whom carved chances out against Albion that on another day, and with a keeper less awake than Ben Foster, would have brought a 2 or 3 goal margin of victory rather than the single goal win.

Against us was arrayed a visiting side who played their part exceptionally well also, resolute defenders to the death, throwing their bodies and heads in until finally they were skewered. Pulis did what he does best, scrape a gang of modestly talented journeymen into a defensive wall of greater quality than its constituent parts. Tony knows when he is beaten at his own game though. To quote the defeated manager on our winner;

“He put his hand across him early and outmuscled him,” said the West Brom manager, Tony Pulis, almost in admiration. “I think if Gareth takes a step forward, then he stops Giroud pinning him. Once he pinned him he is so strong and overpowers him. I’ve got no complaints.”

A defeated manager with “no complaints” Pffft –As flies to wanton boys are we to th’ gods. They kill us for their sport.

Of other aspects of the game ? Bad luck for young Kieran to go off after a clash in which both players could have been seriously injured. Hopefully for our full back he just has a badly bruised knee and will be fit for Palace. No gripes with referee Swarbrick yesterday. Not one of my favourite whistlers but a workmanlike performance with no errors I saw. One minor negative; Giroud needs to control the ‘dissent’ business. A pointless yellow card that early and you are one clumsy challenge or stray arm away from reducing us to ten men. And that would have ruined everyone’s afternoon!

That is me for this year – thank you for reading !

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Arsenal Versus West Brom: Paradise Regained

Posted by steww on December 26, 2016 in All Posts

kickabout

I don’t know about you but Christmas has always been a time out of time for me. Even the days of the week cease to follow their usual pattern. We abstain from the conventions of Monday to Sunday, preferring instead Christmas Eve, Christmas Day and Boxing Day. These will bleed seamlessly into The Day After Boxing Day followed in this instance by Wednesday, Thursday, Friday and New Year’s Eve.

It’s the only time of year that does this and I love it. A little holiday from humdrum reality and other than when we change the clocks is probably the only chance we have to allow ourselves to toy so fancifully with such rigidly imposed temporal norms.

Apart from not actually knowing that yesterday was a Sunday (until I resorted to inspecting a calendar) other significant facts my mind glossed over in its Yuletide reverie were that I had a blog to write and Arsenal had a match to play.

I don’t think anyone here will mind therefore that I have nothing prepared for you today. I’m sure you all had far more important things to do than give even a fleeting momentary thought to such distractions as football yourselves. Don’t panic, there was no danger of me actually forgetting the match entirely. You may recall a few weeks back when we played Tottenham that my nephew came and watched the match with me, he having, at the age of nine, decided that the mighty Arsenal was the team for him.

Well we’ve already been given notice that he’s coming again today, resplendent in his most prized Christmas gift of the year, his Arsenal first team kit. He has been an ever present with me, for day time kick offs at least, and it’s been a fascinating change to my routine.

Apart from when Kelly and Mike visited us earlier in the year I haven’t watched a match with anyone else in the room since the League Cup final against Birmingham, preferring to sit alone in a state of tense, twitching anxiety for the duration of the game. However seeing the whole thing through the eyes of a child has been a tonic for me.

If I allowed my perception of football to be dominated by the pathetic online squabbling and faux expertise of the so called adult population I seriously think I would give up on the sport altogether. The warm, funny, insightful community I joined all those years ago has disintegrated and is now almost entirely monopolised by point scoring demi trolls on either side of the debate who have lost any obvious love of the simple thrill of following their favourite team.

The young man who will sidle in next to me at three o’clock today knows none of this. He also struggles with the offside rule, why everyone doesn’t get booked for kicking the ball over the sideline as Francis Coquelin did, and why, if he can see a bad decision on the screen, can’t the people in charge of the game see it also. He cheers and whoops with delight when we score, and purses his lips and just stares at me for guidance when we concede.

It is fair to say I’ve learned a hell of a lot more from him in the last six weeks than I have from Twitter in the last several years.

Unfortunately for me he missed the City game and came round the next day to watch the replay with me forcing me to do that which I never do – watch a defeat all over again. Once more it was a salutary lesson. I survived the ordeal, no one died as a result of it and surprise surprise neither our tactics nor the individual performances of our players were remotely as bad as the internet had led me to believe. I put the highlights of our six nil thrashing of Ludogorets on when the game finished and the boy went home happy.

So as you lot all wind each other up with talk of ‘must win’ games and dark tales of Pulis and his sinister past my nephew and I will balance our lucky soccer cards on the keyboard of my computer and compare his new Arsenal shirt with my old style one. We’ll yell encouragement at the deaf, uncomprehending screen as our boys go forward and sigh and shake our heads at any setback. And I’ll bet I enjoy the whole experience a thousand times more for taking it so much less seriously than any of the games I used to watch with only the internet for company.

I predict a thumping win today with goals galore and end to end action all cheered on with gusto by those lucky enough to get their hands on a ticket. If not I predict a kick about in the back garden under the lights and something fizzy to drink. Smashing.

 

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Arsenal Failing Without Santi Cazorla

Posted by shotta_gooner on December 21, 2016 in All Posts

santi-injury

As the game evolved on Sunday between Man City and Arsenal I had this surreal sensation of a slowly unfolding train wreck. From the moment the ball ricocheted from midfield to defense after Cech’s back-kick and somehow eluded both Gabriel and Koscielny to find the clearly offside Sane, who went on to score, it was apparent to me we were losing control of the game. By the way, the mealy mouth media bastards who are usually the first to proclaim that offside applies to any part of the body that is off, deserve a place in hell for trying to justify Sane’s goal on the grounds that  Koscielny’s “boot” kept him on. This fate applies equally to ex-Gunner Lee Dixon as well as his team of yes-men, Arlo White and Graeme LeSaux who were on my NBC tv feed. Their ex-post justification of a clear officiating error, is further confirmation that the mainstream media can do nothing less than reflexively and automatically  justify officialdom, no matter how wrong and unjust. But then they are all part of the Establishment. How dare they criticize one of their own?

From the moment Man City scored, the swagger, confidence and bravado that was apparent for much of the first half clearly began to slip away. The Arsenal men, slowly but surely, lost control of the game both on the defensive and offensive end. Too often the team was desperately defending on the edge of the box unable to move the ball from defense and attack. Justifiably they tried to play the ball out of the back rather than whacking it down field. More often than not it would ping uncontrollably off the legs of a Gunner resulting in a turnover to the opposition.

Nobody in midfield seem able to take-on one or more opponent in tight paces and beat them with skill or win a foul giving the team time to reset. No one had the audacity, impudence, the nerve, simply the chutzpah, to attempt a dribble from deep in Arsenal’s defensive 3rd and put the pressure on the opposition forcing them to retreat as fast as hell fearing Arsenal could easily turn defense into attack at lightning speed. Simply speaking there was no Santi Cazorla in sight.

I am not sure how many shared my feelings but as the game increasingly fell from our grasp I desperately pined for our little Spanish maestro. Afterwards, as is my wont, I researched the data to confirm whether my feelings had any factual basis or not.

7 Games With Santi:

W D L GF GA PTS PPG
6 1 0 16 6 19 2.7

9 Games Without Santi:

W D L GF GA PTS PPG
3 3 3 19 13 12 1.3

Is there a more telling series of data? With Santi the club was putting up an eye watering statistic ppg of 2.7, which is title-winning numbers, and without him the ppg has fallen by 50% to 1.3. The dramatic fall in ppg,  if not arrested,  is a slow but sure slide to mid-table mediocrity. The data-phobic critics will be the first to say the sample size is small, etc. But PA readers are aware of the research I did last October, which prove that ever since he arrived from Malaga four years ago, Santi Cazorla has been the most valuable player at Arsenal Football Club.

Take a gander at the following key data

Season Apps Mins Goals Assists PS%
2015/2016 15 1293 – 3 90.2
2014/2015 33 2992 7 11 89.0
2013/2014 30 2597 4 8 86.3
2012/2013 37 3311 12 11 86.8

From the moment he arrived at Arsenal, Santi was required to play some heavy minutes, well in excess of 3,000 in his very first year and a trifle less in 2014/15. Add 624 and 559 minutes respectively in the champion’s league campaigns, then we get a full measure of how vital it was for the manager to have the little maestro on the team sheet. It was only because of injuries that his minutes were abbreviated in 2015/16.

When playing, Santi excelled in all the key technical attributes of a midfielder.  Never the most prolific of goal scorers, he rattled in as much as 12 in 2012/13 but this leveled off over the years as his role changed to someone operating from a deeper midfield position. Equally, if not more significant, was his ability during the first three injury-free years to create a consistently high number of assists improving  from 1 in 3.36 games in 2012/13 to 1 in 3 in 2014/15.  Throughout the years the Spaniards passing percentage was never less than the 86th percentile improving to as high as the 90th percentile in 2015/16.

How did this translate into results? The data reveals that consistently, without exception, for all games played by the ambidextrous Spanish maestro, Arsenal’s ppg was consistently higher than the ppg for the entire team for the comparable season, i.e. when one accounts for games without Santi.

Season PPG-Santi PPG-AFC PPG – Title
2015/2016 2.14 1.87 2.13
2014/2015 2.06 1.97 2.29
2013/2014 2.24 2.08 2.26
2012/2013 1.92 1.74 2.34

The difference ranges from 0.27 ppg in 2015/16, the period when Santi was absent for nearly 6 months, to a mere .09 ppg in 2014/15. These numbers may appear to be marginal and insignificant but such are the fine margins between winning and losing a title:

  • If Arsenal sustained Santi’s 2.14 ppg in 2015/16 the club would have exceed Leicester’s title-winning total of 2.13.
  • If Arsenal sustained Santi’s 2.24 ppg in 2013/14 they had the possibility of competing with Manchester City for the title, definitely coming closer to 2nd rather than finishing 4th.

Despite years of unbiased data which demonstrate, without need for headlines and drama, that Santi Cazorla is the key link in the chain built by Arsene Wenger, not every pundit and tactical expert was willing to proclaim that he left a big gaping hole in the Arsenal midfield last October with his injury. Even the relatively decent WhoScored .com to date averaged Santi as less than a 7 out of 10 player:

DATE HOME SCORE AWAY RATING
20-08-2016 Leicester 0-0 Arsenal 6.17
27-08-2016 Watford 1-3 Arsenal 7.08
10-09-2016 Arsenal 2-1 Southampton 8.05
17-09-2016 Hull 1-4 Arsenal 6.88
24-09-2016 Arsenal 3-0 Chelsea 6.97
02-10-2016 Burnley 0-1 Arsenal 6.80
15-10-2016 Arsenal 3-2 Swansea 6.91

It was left to Arsene Wenger, when recently asked whether he would go out into the transfer market to get another Santi Cazorla, this January to state:

“… in January you will not normally find a Cazorla – even if you want to.”

Seems to me Arsene will have to tinker with the shape of the side between now and Cazorla’s return to make it a little more solid defensively at the expense of the earlier swashbuckling attacking style. Between now and then our title-winning chances will rest on the very fine thread sewn by Santi’s surgeon in Sweden.

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Arsenal: Dial M for Meltdown

Posted by anicoll5 on December 19, 2016 in All Posts

large_psycho_blu-ray_5Good morning Positive Arsenal fans,

A brief review of yesterday’s painful events this morning. I am sure that most of you have endured a downbeat Sunday evening and Monday morning, as the result of yesterday’s game lapped at the edges of our consciousness. I know my past sixteen hours have seen evidence of most of the symptomatic signs of upset; anhedonia, irritability, loss of confidence, diminished appetite, disrupted sleep pattern, difficulty in concentrating, and patchy memory. Yes fellow Positives the symptoms still come, despite my long experience of being stung by the malicious insect of footballing misfortune. The feeling, at this stage, I cannot intellectualise away. Later in the week I shall feel better, but not today.

I feel I should discuss the game as that is in my job specification at PA.

First half good, excellent early goal, may have got a second, matched Citeh all over the park, sound defensively, the home side lively but Pep clearly frustrated and on the edge of panic. I could see, as Mr Atkinson led the players off at HT, a three point haul from the game as entirely feasible.

Second half ? Well I am afraid to say we managed to drag up another grimly awful second half effort, very similar I thought to that we produced at Trafford Park a few weeks back. Now I admit the equaliser was a set back, a very soft goal whether it was onside or offside, and to some extent that may explain a jolt to the collective Arsenal system. But we have had setbacks and lost goals all season. A goal against us does not explain a fractured display over the next 45 minutes in which passes went astray, possession was surrendered tamely and the impression was given that the players who had been so competent in the first half had been replaced by a bunch of chaps who had never played together before. Did we ever really threaten Bravo’s goal in the second half ? ( Shakes head and puffs out cheeks) The outcome of our disjointed second half display was inevitable. I would not mind if we had been played off the park by a Citeh side at their best. The home side did not even adopt the “aggressive” Everton approach. I thought the opposition were distinctly ordinary.

It is neither my style nor the purpose of this blog to apportion blame or to allocate guilt. I think we can rely on others to do that. I suspect the players, manager and coaches travelling home last night felt as disappointed as we do. They know that they did not perform as they can do, and have done on so many important games this season. It must be for the players to look into themselves, and the manager and coaches to work hard to ensure our next game against the Baggies on Boxing Day is 95 minutes of sustained good football.

If there was a simple answer to avoiding our second half syndrome then it would have been erased long ago.

Anyway that is my five-penneth. You will get no meltdown  or outrage on here. I suspect it will be quiet on here today but I will be in and out with bits and pieces. Please enjoy your week in the run up to Christmas and the day itself.

 

 

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Arsenal Versus Man City: Rage, Rage Against the Dying Of The Light

Posted by steww on December 18, 2016 in All Posts

Joie de vivre
The frenzy which greeted our defeat on Wednesday night was enough to put any reasonable person off the game for life. I steered clear of the blood letting and the bed wetting because I knew my masters would be cracking the whip and expecting the minimum word count from me this morning. Had I indulged in the orgiastic, self harming, feeding frenzy I know I couldn’t have faced the blog, the match or any of the silly over blown circus ever again.

The way we turn in on ourselves when we have no way of lashing outwards reminds me of my dogs. They spend their days on a giant cushion under the desk at which I am sat. They divide their time between snoozing and cat watch. If a moggie dare shows its face in the back garden they attack the glass conservatory panel with all the impotent fury of a driver giving the finger to the fast disappearing rear lights of a BMW which had dared to overtake.

Once the offending puss has strolled from view with a nonchalant disregard for the distant canine rage the dogs, by now beyond the point of reason, invariably turn on one another and snap and snarl and generally clash teeth and share a lot of drool. Occasionally fur flies but without exception they will eventually settle into their former state, carefully scrutinizing the lawn and fence posts for feline incursions.

I have done the self same thing. I can’t shout at the ref or opposition players, the only football fans I follow are Arsenal fans and the only Arsenal fans I follow are the positive realists. So who else do I have to sink my canines into? Once I’d seen the clear parallel with the dopey mutts beneath my desk I knew it had to stop. So after Wednesday I just faded Cheshire Cat like into the background with nothing but the faint glow of a snarl to betray my presence.

The only thing I can see to do after a defeat is look forward to the next match. The idea of fans falling out with one another over their opinions on our tactical shortcomings is too laughable for words. What on earth do they think their ideas count for? Who with any influence over the players will ever know or care what you or I think about Xhaka’s positional play or whether Walcott’s runs are exploited by his team mates? Who gives a damn what we think? No one who matters, no one with the power to effect practical change.

So I looked forward and closed my eyes and ears to the bellyaching. I looked forward to the next match and for once the fates were kind to us. Ideally we would have played Chelsea but Man City or Liverpool would do. Playing against our direct rivals is the perfect fixture following a defeat. It is a game of such significance as to wipe the memory of an Everton away day clean from the mind. It is, in the popular slang, a six pointer. We have the opportunity to record a famous victory which will make all the histrionics over the Goodison result seem silly in comparison.

Unless of course you believe that we have already fallen too far off the pace and are doomed to watch yet another rival lift the trophy in May. In which case surely you must approach every game in a thoroughly relaxed frame of mind. If it’s already too late to achieve anything positive then we are playing for fun and you can shrug off any loss and chuckle at every win. With nothing riding on the match you have nothing to get het up about have you?

In sport as in life it is vital that we taste the pain of defeat. The bitterness should insult the tongue. It is this experience alone which lends victory its unique piquancy. Should we bring home the three points this afternoon it will be all the sweeter for the context of our midweek disappointment.

Win, lose or draw I just wish there was some way for football fans to rediscover a little equilibrium. It isn’t your career on the line, you are no more invested in this than a bird watcher is in a falcon’s egg. Sure it’s disappointing if the chick gets so far only to fall from the nest, but you get to pack up your binoculars and go home for your tea don’t you? You can stand there and shout at the tiercel for choosing an inadequate nest site if it would make you feel better but really the best you can hope to achieve is attracting strange looks from that nice lady with the RSPB badge on her hat.

The problem with us football fans is we think we’re special. We think our hobby more important than others and that we therefore have a peculiar dispensation to behave like complete pricks when things don’t go our way. It’s chastening to get to fifty three years old and realise that for the last forty six years I have been deluding myself in this as in so many other aspects of my life.

Bad refereeing might be killing the game. TV money might be killing the game. Corruption in FIFA or the FA might be killing the game. But hysterical, bad tempered, self indulgent, childish supporting is also gnawing at the foundations with a quite frightening ferocity. I decided to give it another go today but if we lose and the reaction is as bad as I suspect it will be I’m going to struggle to join in again.

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