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Countering The White Flag Brigade at The Arsenal

Posted by shotta_gooner on August 27, 2015 in All Posts

After the disappointment of not winning at home vs Liverpool, there was the expected emotional reaction by many pundits and fans who have concluded after the first three games of the season that Arsenal cannot contend for the title.

1-Win, 1-Draw and 1-Loss and we are already out of the runnings.

In this rush to judgment various justifications are offered. The most popular thesis is we lack a world class striker, ergo we shall fail to score goals. To back up this argument there is a virtual panic over our goal-scoring so far. I will admit that after three games the figures (compliments of Squawka) are ugly:

TO DATE
Total Goals Scored 2
Avg Goals Per Game 0.66
Total Chances Created 49
Shot Accuracy 44%

The implication, by those already running up the white flag of surrender, is at the current rate Arsenal will end the season with only 39 goals and a shot accuracy that will barely surpass Aston Villa’s infamous strike rate of 44% in the 2014-15 season.

Obviously these pessimistic projections are nonsensical and unrealistic for a team of Arsenal’s quality, unless you are a blatant fear-monger. Whilst not every pundit or blogger goes to these extremes, on a repetitive and consistent basis, the fear is being sown that we do not have the strikers to score enough goals to win games. As would be expected, hopefully by readers of this blog, the record speaks a totally different story.

Just take the past three years, which by the way, concurs with Giroud’s arrival at the club and assumption of the role of main striker.

2012-13 2013-14 2014-15 AVG
Total Goals Scored 72 68 71 70
Avg Goals Per Game 1.89 1.79 1.87 1.85
Total Chances Created 461 404 470 445
Shot Accuracy 48% 54% 52% 51%

The figures demonstrate that based on Total Chances Created we are consistently a 70 goal per season team. Furthermore with our non-world class strike force we have a team which will consistently score from 16% of chances created.

Yet there is very little attention in the press, and obviously none can be expected from the fear mongers, to the fact that so far this season Arsenal is creating chances at the rate of knots.  For the season-to-date we are creating 16 chances per game which, if the rate is maintained, will total 620 for the season. If we sustain our 3-year average conversion rate then we should score 99 goals for the season. Rosy projections obviously but the figures suggest we should exceed Total Goals Scored if we sustain our average. Any professional forecaster would probably plump for a figure somewhere in the middle and project 84 goals for the season.

Arsene Wenger is obviously not in panic mode.  In his pre-Newcastle presser he made the following observation:

“Maybe we are not firing on all cylinders at the moment. By definition, the finishing is a little bit cyclical and it goes in cycles. Finishing qualities come and go and you do not always know why, but certainly at the moment we want it so much at home that we’re trying to force it a little bit.

Somebody needs to remind the White Flag Brigade it is still August. The race has just started and far from decided. We are 8th in the tables, ahead of the defending champions by goal difference. The team is creating chances at a mega rate. History guarantees that as sure as night follows day the goals will come. Roll on Newcastle.

Postscript: Almost a full hour after I signed off on this blog and submitted it for publishing, a story appeared online by Jeremy Wilson of The Telegraph here which was directly sourced from the club and not made on background under the cloak of anonymity, where Wenger made it clear he is concerned about the speculative attacks on the club which are not fact based.

“The only thing I want is that when people have opinions, it is documented and worked out before … especially when it is football specialists.”

Without trying to ride on Wenger’s coat-tails, I must admit some satisfaction that Positively Arsenal is one of a few blogs that has been trying to use publicly available data to counter some of the damaging, baseless propaganda that is put in the public sphere not only by the club’s adversaries (PL rivals, greedy-agents, self-serving journalists, etc) but by its own (ex-players turned pundit, Arsenal bloggers and podcasters). Given the easy access to the internet, it only takes a few minutes of research to unearth tons of information proving that Gary Neville, Thierry Henry, Jaime Carragher and company are often talking a load of bollocks and simply giving comfort to the malcontents (George) and those suffering from dysphoria (Andrew Nicoll). We have said it often, on this and another blog which many of us once frequented, that this mindless negativity affects the team, especially in our own stadium. Now we have confirmation by the boss:

“What is a concern is that it puts pressure on players. I love that they [former players] go on television, but what I would like is for them to help people to love football even more. The first mission is to educate people. That is fantastic because the guy can explain things that the guy who has not played at the top level can understand and to get people to really love the game. Some do it very well. The other way I don’t like so much.”

I think he has given us more than enough reason to do our little part in countering the narrative of the White Flag Brigade.

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Can Arsenal Win With Lightweights?

Posted by pedantic George @arseblagger on August 26, 2015 in All Posts

We like to hear things that reinforce our opinions.

We agree with those that have the same opinions as us and argue against those who have opinions that differ. Of course we do.  Why would we not? I have yet to meet someone that thinks their opinion is wrong. If they did they would change it. So everyone thinks their opinion is right.

The problem starts when we argue against someone with superior knowledge of a subject and refuse to entertain the idea that they are more likely to be right than we are.

The problem with football is most people believe they have a great knowledge when in fact, in most cases, mine included, it’s nothing more than a basic layman’s knowledge. Then someone comes along – let’s say someone like Gary Neville – and says the same as you. Now Gary clearly has better than a layman’s knowledge so you hold him up as evidence that not only were you right, but you know as much as him, because you have drawn the same conclusions.

To me though, this a a bit like feelling unwell and wanting the opinion of a consultant to confirm your self-diagnosis; instead you speak to a nurse and because he/she confirms your thoughts, you are happy to accept this opinion.

What are pundits though?

As a rule they are either ex-footballers that were good at kicking a ball and not much else, serially failed managers or shock-jock second-rate journalists. They are employed for their entertainment value much more than their football nous.

As a rule they are “paint by numbers” in their thinking. They stick to the formula of how the layman sees the game. How many times do we hear “the United way, the Liverpool way or the Arsenal way” with pundits insisting that managers should stick to a sometimes 40- or 50-year old way of playing, because that once brought that club success. They pick the moment in time where the club had its greatest success with its greatest team and players and insist that is the template.

In the case of Arsenal that’s The Invincibles.

Arsene mixed that formula, it brought unprecedented success and he should stick to it.

Simples.

Well that might well work if the game had not moved on, if pitches had not improved, if the technical excellence of top players had not improved or perhaps if players as good as those from the previous era are now available to be bought and kept.

However, if you attempt to stick to that formula with lesser players, in a different environment, the chances are success will not follow.

If you are playing Dembélé, Schneiderlin and Remy for Vieira, Gilberto and Henry (because they are the nearest you can get or afford) then will it work? I would suggest not.

If you do what many clubs do and follow the formula of buying the best player you can afford, in the accepted mould, you will finish behind clubs that follow the same formula but can buy better players.

A player like Santi would never see the light of day in mid-field.

It might be that we can’t win the league with diminutive technical players like Santi, Jack, Ozil and Rosicky, but I suggest we have a better chance than with second-rate players that fit the accepted mould.

Pedantic George @Blackburngeorge

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Reality Leaves A Lot To The Imagination*

Posted by anicoll5 on August 25, 2015 in All Posts

Morning +++’ers and I guess that like me you have been gently turning over last night’s game, like a tumble dryer at a slow speed, little flashes of bright cloth, amid a whirl of rather confused and apparently damp fabric.

What of the contest itself?

A disturbing first half. Hesitation, nervousness and careless passing from the outset which appeared to accelerate as Liverpool sensed they might be on for a win and pressed us hard in our half of the pitch. Ironically the best Arsenal pass of the first half which led to Aaron’s ‘goal’ came from Santi, who seemed like he was ill. No, seriously, he looked a bit dazed as he trotted about. His passing was way off target. As for the ‘goal’ how long is professional football going to look ridiculous by refusing to employ technology to assist officials, then bleat long and loud about terrible decisions by officials? I am hopeful that it may happen in my lifetime, though probably not Blatter’s.

As for the other 44 minutes, Le Coq stepped in twice with two decisive and, thank the Lord, clean tackles to deny Scouse forwards bearing down on Cech. One great save and one good save by the Czech/poor finish by Benteke, left us clinging on at half time. So many of those Liverpool chances came as a result of errors on our part, failing to clear a ball, losing it 25 yards out etc. And it was not just Chambers and Gabriel, it was most of the players in red and white shirts.

And when we returned and Mr Oliver peeped the second period into life the world turned upside down. Passes hit their intended receiver (quite NFL that phrase, I shall use it again), Liverpool looked increasingly ragged and could not retain the ball, their young Gomez had to resort to niggly fouls to keep the left-hand side controlled, we made many chances in the box, Giroo huffed, Ozil puffed, Mignolet pulled off a couple of good saves …….. But, disappointingly, we failed to bring the house down. Good contribution from the Ox, Sanchez looked a little subdued. Gabriel looked very assured throughout the second 45 against an aggressive and increasingly frustrated Benteke. Theo unfortunately anonymous for his 10 minute cameo. No cigar last night son.

A point gained, two points dropped? It was the right result on the game so I say the former.

What of the opponents?

In spite of myself I was impressed. A polished performance, particularly at the back from Loveren and Skrtel, Clyne solid, Coutinho tricky. They could be genuine Top 4 contenders again, especially with no Euro distractions. What on earth was Mignolet doing time wasting though?  Idiotic attitude – you had the game in the palm of your glove you fool  – and you were running the clock down. Almost unfathomably stupid.

What of the Arsenal?

Simple solution, score goals to translate footballing superiority into points in the table. We have intelligent and experienced players. I have no doubt that will be Mr Wenger’s priority as he strides into Colney today. I have no idea how he will go about it, that is not my job.

Anyway the game gives me a chance to repeat my favourite five minute home movie of football, A Night At The Emirates. Even if you have seen it before, watch it again.

Enjoy your Tuesday.

*John Lennon 9th October 1940 – 8th December 1980

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Arsenal Versus Liverpool: Breaking Warren’s Heart

Posted by steww on August 24, 2015 in All Posts

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I bumped into Warren on Thursday, I was haggling in a camera shop, he was mooching about town with his daughter. We haven’t seen much of each other lately so we pressed pause in our respective schedules and brought one another up to date. As with most people in these circumstances it wasn’t long before the conversation strayed to that mutually agreeable safe ground of football. I suggested that the next time his team were playing and it was on one of the channels I have available on the old flat screen I should negotiate with she who must be grovelled to and fawned upon for the use of the front room, and he might care to join me.

Taking me by the elbow, he pointed out gently, with the solicitude usually reserved for guiding an elderly psychiatric patient back into the grounds of the home, that the next time his team was playing was in fact on Monday night. Against my team. Warren is, you see, a Liverpool supporter and I hadn’t looked to see when our next fixture was nor who we would be playing. I’ve never been particularly good at keeping up with current events and in my present befuddled state I confess this particular penny had entirely failed to drop.

A silence, gravid with unspoken meaning passed slowly and of course silently between us. Perhaps, we agreed, Monday might not be the best night. Could either of us really enjoy the game knowing the other was fervently determined that our side must fail? Could I glance upon my house guest with a benevolent eye knowing he wished disaster upon the Arsenal defence? Would he not struggle to maintain his own sangfroid in the face of my similarly hostile attitude towards his team? We parted best of friends as ever we were, him debonair and elegant, me shambling and dishevelled, but the brief encounter had set me thinking.

Was it ever thus? Before the days of the internet and especially blogs like this and social media like twitter, were we quite so fractured so determinedly tribal? I don’t think so. I used to go to the boozer to watch the match whether it be against Man U, Spurs, Chelsea or whoever and mingle freely with supporters from those clubs both friends and complete strangers. There were good humoured exchanges, legs were pulled, piss was taken and we all had a few bevvies after the game, no harm no foul.

Nowadays I wouldn’t dream of watching a match in public for fear of meeting the wrong kind of Arsenal fans never mind supporters of the opposition. How people sit in The Emirates with morons abusing our players and booing the team is entirely beyond my failing imagination. Please don’t conclude for a moment that I didn’t care back in those halcyon days, that defeat didn’t eat my insides and that the sight of Man United beating us didn’t make me want to eat glass. If anything I was even worse after a defeat then than now. But this particular divisive factionalism didn’t exist. I recall going to a flat shared by two Spurs supporting mates to watch a league cup match between our two teams and we all had a great night. Even them. And of course they lost. But not any more. It seems we have become so split, so utterly divided and so closed to the naysayers or those we deem antithetical to our way of supporting that we’ve lost the genuine community which once held football fans together.

Or perhaps it’s just me.

I don’t think so though. When I look at all the different blogs and their varied viewpoints, and I’m restricting this to just Arsenal fan sites, I am reminded powerfully of the Monty Python film The Life Of Brian.

Brian: Excuse me. Are you the Judean People’s Front?

Reg: Fuck off! ‘Judean People’s Front’. We’re the People’s Front of Judea! ‘Judean People’s Front’.

Francis: Wankers.

And so on. Before long I shouldn’t be surprised if I end up like the Popular Front, sat on my own with everyone else yelling ‘splitter’ at me as I write a blog to myself which only I read. But until that day comes I shall write it for both you and me and we can huddle together in the comment section looking suspiciously over our shoulders.

The blog has been late coming today in an effort to match the lateness of the kick off. About two days late if you ask me. Bloody silly time to play a football match but I dare say we’ll cope. A lunch time kick off for some of you depending on the time zone but a workday too so a mixed blessing – what you gain on the swings and all that. Anyway back to Warren.

When we left him he was outside Jessops contemplating tonight’s fixture. He proclaimed himself very nervous about the game, and that was about a hundred and three hours before kick off. We’re a bloody strange bunch us football fans aren’t we? Why the apprehension? I enquired. Liverpool are a pretty good team, they’ve enjoyed a winning start to the season and haven’t conceded a goal in their first two games. I’d have thought he would be brimming with confidence. When I put this to him he just smiled and pointed out that he was nervous because Liverpool would be facing, in his words, a very good team.

It’s always interesting to discover how other people see us isn’t it? It’s why Bill Bryson’s Notes From A Small Island is such a compelling read for us Brits. Someone who has taken us to his bosom shines a light on our strange ways and makes us see ourselves from a different angle. Because my social circle has become so narrow in recent years and my football circle even narrower I didn’t realise that opposition teams and fans might not quite relish a trip to the Emirates. That sides as successful and free spending as Liverpool have been over the years might experience a frisson of self doubt when they see our name on the fixture list. It’s probably because there are so many defeatist, negative, weak willed, cowardly or just jaundiced Arsenal fans surrounding our little bastion of calm and common sense, all backed up and supported by an Arsenal hating media that I’ve come to assume the prevailing mood in the country is that we’re no good. Far from it.

I don’t know about you but I’m emboldened by the knowledge that, with the possible exception of Swansea, no one really looks forward to playing us and that’s probably because they know that on our day we can take anyone on and, potentially, take anyone apart. We just need to be on our day more often and that feeling will surely grow. When opposition teams tip over that invisible edge from knowing we’re a good side into assuming we’ll probably beat them then our work is half done. We’ve experienced this a few times in our past and I believe it’s time to get it back. Of course we will only do that by winning some games. We held on against Palace which is a start but it would be far more useful to end Liverpool’s solid start tonight, break poor Warren’s heart and enjoy the kind of solidarity across the Arsenal fan base which only a win against a top six rival can bring.

I think we can do it, heck, I know we can do it. Liverpool are a much better team than we often give them credit for and Brendan Rodgers has done a far better job than we like to admit, but we have a squad which blends invention and tenacity, youth and experience into what I believe can be the perfect balance. The engine didn’t start against West Ham and may not have run perfectly smoothly at Palace but it’s still a beautiful machine. In many ways it doesn’t feel as if the season has really started properly yet, tonight could be the perfect time to kick it off.

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Football’s Habituation Principle

Posted by steww on August 21, 2015 in All Posts

 A guest post from

On Tuesday night I watched United take on Club Brugge in the Champions League qualifier. I enjoyed the early goal against them, of course I did, but any hopes of further embarrassment were stopped short by an excellent performance form their new player, Memphis Depay. Although the rest of the team creaked a bit, and although it still took a late, late intervention from Fellaini to ensure a comfortable platform, it was Depay who made all the difference. It pains me to say this on an Arsenal blog, but I enjoyed seeing him play. He had a swagger and confidence about him that seemed entirely justified. He scored two great goals, and provided the last-second assist: he also made the crowd come alive every time he was on the ball. I know it was only against Brugge, and sterner tests lie ahead, but he had an aura about him that must excite all United fans.

Or at least, you’d like to think so, especially as there must have been a few who were a little underwhelmed by the signing back in the spring. He wasn’t exactly cheap – 24 million or so is a lot of millions for a 21 year old who, despite his excellent track record in Holland, has yet to prove himself in English football – but he wasn’t the galactico signing that many United fans would have hoped for, or even expected.  But no, here he was in August, suggesting that van Gaal was exactly right to buy him, and promising great things in the future. Will he be worthy to wear the famous No 7 shirt? Only time will tell, but he has certainly started well enough. And yet, hardly a day later, it transpired that Pedro, strongly rumoured to be another United target, had signed for Chelsea. Cue Twitter meltdown, social media awash with moans and groans that United could no longer compete, that Chelsea were the new force, that Mourinho and Cesc Fabregas’s girlfriend had hoodwinked Ed Woodward. And in all the furore Memphis Depay and the promise he brings was swiftly forgotten.

If you ever wanted a definition of football’s habituation principle this was it in spades. The quest for the new overshadowing anything already possessed. If every new acquisition so quickly becomes familiar that only an even newer purchase can satisfy then madness surely beckons. For the purposes of this argument it does not matter that Pedro and Depay are different players who both play slightly different roles, for my point is that much of the excitement about the transfer window isn’t really about football at all. I used to think it was more about macho posturing – mine’s bigger than yours sort of thing – but now I think it is about spoilt and entitled tantrum throwing and an absence of good parenting. If it wasn’t so sad it would make you smile. It should certainly make you realise that as Arsenal’s transfer dealings are subjected to the same lack of perspective and common sense then it is unlikely the media will allow Arsenal fans to think their squad is actually rather good and doesn’t need much, if any, tinkering with. And that it certainly doesn’t need the kind of full body replacement that some seem keen suggest.

Giroud scored a wonderfully athletic and predatory goal in our last match, but that has done nothing to quell the daily demands for Arsène to do what it takes to sign Benzema. Coquelin produced the ‘on the edge of dismissal’ defensive performance that many have been calling for since the days of Vieira and Petit, but still the call goes out for a new pair of Doctor Martens. Ramsey near enough ran a marathon for us at Selhurst Park but is apparently too selfish to wear the shirt while I also understand there is no hope of the defensive trio of Mertesacker , Cech and Koscielny  ever forging the Fort Knox security that proper title challenges are built on. Only new signings can put right these glaring deficiencies, but of course, the moment those signings become flesh and blood Arsenal they will prove never to be quite enough. Pinter knew all about this in The Caretaker: Davies was always travelling to Sidcup where apparently salvation lay. But if you are relying on Sidcup, or a new signing, to make everything OK in your life, then you will forever be disappointed. This is of course the point: if you need your Football club to win every match to bring all good in your life, if you are always waiting for the sparkling armada of promises then you will be waiting a long time. Next Please, observed Larkin, much as those United fans said who were no longer content with Depay. I’d rather be happy with what I’ve got, and to be honest, in football terms I’ve got an awful lot: my team on the TV nearly every match, a nice stadium to go to when the children don’t need new shoes, some wonderful players to watch, more wins than losses over the last many years and always the faint hope of a Premier League title or Champions League success to keep the Davies in me happy.

Now, about those new signings Arsène …..

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El Capitan (Translation Provided)

Posted by bradyesque7 on August 18, 2015 in All Posts

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Arsenal El Capitan, Mikel Arteta

This is a brief blog about Mikel Arteta.

Spain, Rangers, Arsenal – right midfield, central midfield, defensive midfield blah blah. You all know his evolution so I will spare you a history lesson.

I believe that Santi performs brilliantly in a role designed for Arteta. It’s more defensive than that of The Snake when he was with us and definitely not the traditional defensive midfielder that the cool kids call ‘DM’.  Arteta did, however, play that role without the help of Coquelin so perhaps the earlier part of this paragraph is nonsense. Regardless, the job to which I’m referring is that of the tactical leader. Arteta had the intelligence, touch and composure to play the role masterfully.

El Capitan (Spanish for ‘the captain‘) has made a couple of substitute appearances for us this season in which he burst onto the pitch like a bull in a clichéd reference to Spanish culture. He came on in the game against Chelsea and within minutes found himself in a heated exchange with their midfield. This was a man pumped up and ready to fight for however many minutes he could get on the pitch.

Against Palace, Arteta didn’t immediately replace the outgoing Coquelin but did feature and went straight into his position at the base of midfield. Again, the skipper came out all guns blazing. He made tackles in our box and steadied a ship rocked by its midfield base being excused by the manager.

Arteta still has legs. I saw them on Sunday, they still exist. He isn’t quick on his feet but then I don’t think he needs to be. Tactical nous is what Arteta will live on for the remainder of his career and it could be the difference in many games, as it may have been on Sunday. It remains to be seen how much football he’ll play this season but I at least expect to see him make many substitute appearances.

Footballers age at a dramatic rate and the good ones constantly evolve mentally as their bodies deteriorate. Arteta has done that his whole playing career and, as he heads down the home stretch, which this undoubtedly will be, he will adapt smoothly to his new role of full-time captain, part-time player. He is too intelligent, too resourceful and too determined a man to let it go any other way.

Arteta continues to be a great servant for Arsenal Football Club.

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Zeros To Heroes in One Week – The Arsenal Story

Posted by shotta_gooner on August 18, 2015 in All Posts

“The force of habit that is Arsenal football club has been restored.” – Andrew Nicoll

There is an unwritten rule at Positively Arsenal that we don’t do tactics, team selections and line-ups. We are kept in line not only by George’s very firm gaze (across land and sea), but, as well, most of us are experienced enough to know the importance of letting professionals, like Arsene Wenger and Steve Bould, do their job without interference and second-guessing.

Only in football do you have the views of non-experts given more prominence than a manager who has had 30-years of success at the very top level. It’s like a passenger on an airline, just because he has flown on the jump-seat in the cockpit, thinking he can advise an experienced captain how to fly. For heaven’s sake, that passenger’s job is to support the pilot as he safely lands the aircraft despite having to make some difficult in-flight decisions. Only in football are the passengers/pundits, especially those who had the privilege of “flying jump”, given a privileged media mouthpiece to have a go at captains/managers infinitely more qualified and experienced.

This is precisely the situation at the start of the 2015-16 campaign which took-off nearly 10 days ago. No surprise, after our first day loss, the back-seat experts had their gun-sights firmly aimed at Wenger. Take the supposedly Arsenal-supporting, Ms Sarah Winterburn, for example. In her post West-Ham “Winners and Losers” column for F365 she referred her readers to a pre-season hatchet job she did on the boss:

There is a reason why we find ourselves Googling ‘infuriating synonym’ when we write about Wenger – he is a man that infuriates, exasperates and aggravates. I sentimentally tipped Arsenal to win the title last season, but I will not be listening to my heart and repeating that mistake.

But despite the doubts and lack of belief in his judgment and ability, the manager led the team back on the horse at Selhurst Park, one week after being unceremoniously dumped on the floor by West Ham. It didn’t require a brand-new striker or holding midfielder, the team simply did a few things better than the prior week.

Predictably the mainstream media and blogs have singled out Ozil for most of the plaudits at the expense of any serious analysis. I would be the last one to begrudge our bug-eyed genius his kudos after another demonstration of midfield mastery; creating 5 chances from open play, and successfully completing 54/55 passes, 37 of them in the Palace third. But by now we should be wise to the ways of the media; Ozil is only as good as his last performance. For commercial reasons, it is good to ride the wave after a clearly world class performance, and conversely, to create an artificial meltdown when he has a less than stellar game, hence the infamous accusation of “nicking a living.”

But contrary to all the extra-bandwidth and reams of paper given to Ozil, the biggest improvement over West Ham was down in the trenches, doing the real dirty work, to protect that lead after we finally wrest in from the Eagles. Take a look at the following data from Squawka comparing the last two games.

Key Metric vs West Ham vs Crystal Palace
Total Shots 22 21
Shots on Target 6 8
Blocked Shots 8 7
Corners 5 6
Pass Comp 87% 86%
Tackle Success 34% 64%
Possession 58% 56%

The most startling difference between the two games is the remarkable upgrade in tackle success from 38% to 64%, almost doubling within a week. No other metric is remotely close. To the contrary, despite the team appearing sharper and busier, the only other statistical category that improved over West Ham was in Shots on Target. Mind you, scoring 2 more goals than was achieved on opening day trumps all other statistics. But the fact that the team was was more diligent doing the un-glamorous, dirty work of tackling suggests that this was the difference between conceding at least two goals as was done at the Emirates one week earlier.

It should be no surprise that the greatest improvement was by those whom the pundits criticized most after the first game, i.e. Coquelin and Ramsey. Zeros to Heroes in one short week.

Coquelin infinitely improved his tackling success from a big fat zero to 75%. By the way: we read and hear our own fans and pundits slagging his ability to pass the ball, especially after West Ham. Yet the Squawka data indicate in that game it was a decent 85% and at Crystal Palace improved to 93%. I remember two cross-field diagonals in particular which were Ozil-esque. Yet I heard for myself, senior football correspondents for national newspapers in the UK on a TalkSport forum two hours after the game, declaring Coquelin is not good enough if Arsenal is to win the title. Being that stupid they shall remain nameless.

Similarly Ramsey’s tackling made a similar dramatic improvement, from zero to 67%. It is mathematically impossible to measure the importance to the team of Ramsey’s increased defensive output especially for a man, who disclosed in a post game interview, that his main task, as instructed by the manager, was to get between the lines and take the game to the opposition. No surprise he was an offensive force creating 4 chances and putting 4 shots on goal. Yet he easily fitted in a more defensive role especially after Coquelin was substituted and together with Arteta help us defend the slim lead to the end, with smart, timely tackles.

Yet, pre-game, there were those in the mainstream media as well as fans on twitter and blogs seriously arguing that Ramsey be dropped from the starting XI. On a personal note, I am yet to see in my middle-aged lifetime a football team succeed by not playing its best players. By extension, not playing a fit Aaron Ramsey in an Arsenal XI is tantamount to not playing your best team. No wonder I am happy to be among those PA agnostics who leaves team selection and lineups to the professionals who know best, specifically Arsene Wenger.

Before closing, it would be remiss of me to not mention the importance of the improvement in Shots On Target which went from 6-8. In absolute numbers that is only a gain of two, but statistically it is a 33% gain. For a sport which is low scoring and having fine win margins, getting more shots on target is a key indicator of offensive output.

None of these boring statistics make good reading for those who have already built a narrative that Arsenal cannot win the title without spending significantly on a brand new striker and holding midfielder. But the evidence is compelling. With marginal improvements every week, Arsenal should prevail over almost all opposition in the EPL, just as the club did between January and May this year. I want to remind you of my pre-season blog with the statistics to prove the importance of increased defensive intensity to reduce the Goals Against column if we are to win the title. This was the key to Chelsea’s and United’s success over the past ten years. Hopefully we should see more of that effort when Liverpool comes calling next week-end. Until then, later.

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Arsenal, La force d’habitude

Posted by anicoll5 on August 16, 2015 in All Posts

Good evening Positive Ones and we have had a rather good afternoon, those of us who have had the good fortune to see the game from Selhurst Park and later ‘events’, haven’t we? For those like Tim who have responsibilities elsewhere then it is a pleasure to come.

Reviewing what for me was the first proper (competitive) game of the season is a straightforward task. I am not in position to contrast and compare with the Ammers defeat.

I saw much that I recognised, good quality passing and instinctive movement, Ozil weaving, Sanchez twisting and turning, Olivier engaged in ceaseless struggle with the Palace centre backs. Yes this is all as I remembered it. I was most impressed with both our full backs, Hector especially coming forward in the first half, and Monreal for a sturdy display in the second against an apparently reborn Zaha. When we were pressed we kept our shape and put in clean tackles, from open play the home side created very little. Could Le Coq have suffered a harsher punishment from Mr Mason ? As Glenn would say “I’ve seen them given” but in truth there was no red card worth of fouls today from any players and it would have spoiled what was a physically robust game played in the right sprit, in my opinion. Well done Mr M therefore.

Like you I thought that our dominance in the first 30 minutes deserved at least two goals, with the ball pinging around the Palace box, charged down, saved, deflected, spinning wide but not quite crossing the line. I have seen it before, I shall see it again. The equalizer was an ‘out of the blue’ moment for me. Against the run of play. Pah. The home crowd boomed. We did not panic though, composed ourselves and settled back to see out the first half.

After half time we had our customary wobble with Wickham brushing the post. And then up stepped the man, barging his 5’2” frame through the defender Ward and to force Delaney to sky it into his own net.

That Sanchez eh – what an APPETITE for the game ? And because this was an open contest it was exactly the stage he enjoys. Bravo Alexis and I hope Brendan was watching.

The game then ebbed and flowed to the final whistle, Palace showed their customary tenacity and worked the ball regularly to the edge of the box before surrendering it. We, sort of, relied on the fast break but to be honest in either side looked like scoring again and the game drew toward an orderly close with the three points properly allocated. Arteta’s introduction brought intelligence at the right time, and a great tackle proved there is life in those old Spanish legs yet. My only moments of panic were the two Palace corners in the final 5, both excellently placed and either of which could have pissed all over my chips with an equalizer. This week it was not to be though. As a general observation I thought individually our defenders played well when under pressure and as Palace attacked, very few errors, good positioning, decisive clearances, it is still not quite the organised/co-ordinated group they need to be though. It is not an full working mechanism, with each part meshing to the next. More work needed.

As for later events in the afternoon at the Etihad I suspect that while the result did not bring the same combination of relief and enjoyment that the three points earned at Palace delivered for us, it was still fun to watch. And as football fans we need fun, pantomime in case of Chelsea and their odious manager. I saw one side getting mullered by the other, despite what the man from Setubal declared at the game’s end. Aguero a class act, perfect balance.

Ragged, that is what Chelsea looked to me, ragged. Is it wishful thinking on my part that Jose appears a man under pressure ? I hope not.

The force of habit that is Arsenal football club has been restored.

On to the next one ….

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Arsenal Versus Palace: Enough Is Enough

Posted by steww on August 16, 2015 in All Posts

protest arsenal_DxOFP

As Manchester United marches inexorably towards the Premier League title leaving us to wait and hope that Manchester City can beat Chelsea and so keep us in touch with our neighbours and fellow strugglers at the bottom of the table, Arsenal fans are left with one question. Why? Why can’t the stubborn management at our club see what is obvious to everybody else. Why is it clear to bloggers, tweeters, callers to Talk Sport and every genuine North London born and bred season ticket holding supporter and yet still beyond the power of the manager and his coaches? Why?

Chelsea won last year’s title by a strict adherence to the tactics of George Graham. Solid uninspiring but effective defensive play with a tough goalscorer and one tricky, skilful or as G G would say ‘luxury’ player. Manchester United have won this season’s title by adhering to Arsenal’s ancient and traditionally proven methodology of winning every game by one goal to nil. Dreary, unimaginative performances from bromidic, prosaic players have brought the crown to Old Trafford and Van Gaal’s legendary status is now assured.

So again, why? Why do we supporters suffer watching a team suffer from the incessant tinkering and all too predictable failures of a man who can never hope to emulate the achievements of a Van Gaal or a Mourinho? Men played out of position, men asked to attempt ludicrous passes within their own area when there are acres of empty spaces in the stands and the opposition half into which they could and surely should propel the ball. Men forced to rely on team mates who prefer to attempt back heels, over head kicks, flicks and assorted trickery more suited to a circus ring than a football pitch. In short, men being asked to pull on the famous red and white and stabbed in the back before they even take to the pitch.

Why? When has it ever worked? When has this fanciful approach to the game ever paid off? How does the club expect to fill the ludicrous white elephant of a stadium which they built in the teeth of opposition from real fans (who can trace more than six generations of their family all born in Islington) when they play this silly foreign style of football? Can they not see how many more trophies we would have won had they remained at Highbury, stuck with Bruce Rioch or better still brought back King George once he’d served his time instead of allowing first Leeds and then our deadliest rivals Spurs to snap him up from under our very noses.

I am tired of being misled, tired of my hard earned money going to BT to pay for the internet I use to watch Russian streams of every game – every game – a small amount of which trickles down via BT Sports to the club I love, tired of this money being squandered on Kronke’s new baseball team or his latest big American car. Anyone who doubts the truth of what I’m saying need only glance at the league table. Where are Arsenal? Where are Man United? Did they win the league by moving to a new stadium? No. Have they won it by keeping their hands in their pockets? By trying to show off instead of by winning one nil? No. They won the 2015/16 Premier League trophy by doing what we used to do so well.

Would they put in the centre of their midfield a player so patently passed his sell by that he misplaced two passes in a pre season friendly? A player so old that he cannot hope to keep up with play? Not in a million years . While we rely on a decrepit Mikel Arteta who couldn’t catch chlamydia at a scout camp they have the classy Michael Carrick. Why? Because they’re a club who believes in success and not failure. Because they spend money on the best players and keep them by rewarding them. While Arsenal are happy to spunk £150,000 of your money on Theo Walcott every week Manchester United have only been paying double that amount to keep Wayne Rooney on their books all these years. Which is why unlike Theo they have been able to keep him. Is he linked with a move to Liverpool every time his contract is up? No. Why? Because Man United put their money where their mouth is and don’t insult their players with cheap pay rises so their owners can get rich while the club falls ever farther into debt.

You don’t need to look to the winners of the league to see how far we’ve fallen. Just look at West Ham. Canny business men, an excellently run club with a ruthless manager who understands the tactics of relying on our rookie keeper making two howling blunders on his début. They have moved to a fantastic new stadium, it hasn’t cost them a penny and they don’t waste time fannying about in European competition. They concentrate instead on what really matters and the result has spoken for itself. Just look at the table. It never lies.

We have spent too long in the shadows of other clubs. Just for example, take the supporters from on Merseyside. They have little to shout about, no jobs, poor housing, bad diet and awful role models like Cilla Black and Jimmy Tarbuck. But they fight to overcome their impoverished and humble beginnings. Last season Liverpool fans chartered a plane to fly over the ground on match day demanding the manager be sacked – that’s what I call support. Just yesterday their poor relations (if you can imagine such a concept) went one better when Everton fans hired a helicopter to abuse the owner of their club. What do our so called fans do? Bin bags. It’s pathetic.

So what is next for Arsenal? We can sit and ask why until we’re blue in the face but it won’t change the disastrous result of this season nor the inevitable disasters of next season. We can whine about it, of course. That is every proper fan’s right. As long as your ancestors hunted sabre tooth tigers across the Anglian ice sheet in Precambrian North London and your family have never moved from the area since then it is your birthright to hold Arsenal to account and to complain about every and any aspect of the running of the club both on and off the field, both real and imaginary. In fact it is your duty to remorselessly uncover and expose every failing of the team, manager, coaches and medical staff. Ask yourself, if Mourinho won’t stand for hopeless doctors why should you? You shouldn’t confine your protest to the internet. You should encourage anti Arsenal songs on the terraces. You should have banners made and unfurl them with pride every time the opposition scores. You should never be afraid to show your true support and how much you worship the Arsenal. It isn’t enough to have a utility bill with an N7 postcode you also need to get out there and put your hatred of the club you love into action.

Always remember your opponents, the enemy within, have no answer to your crusade. Those Wenger loving parasites have never walked up the Holloway road in the pouring rain, have never tasted a doner from the Hornsey Kebab And Burger. No, they all live in Thailand or, God help us, America and simply do not understand what it means to love the club your Dad supported and his Dad before him. And don’t tell me they’re proper fans just because they once drove up the interstate to watch a pre season friendly – with the size of their cars and the cheap price of petrol over there that hardly constitutes commitment does it?

So if you want your Arsenal back, if you want us to have a hope against Palace this afternoon and if you want any chance that there will even be a club for your grandson to watch then you need to do something about it. One, do not move house. You have to live within walking distance of the ground to even hold an opinion. Two, let the team know how unhappy you are – groaning is not enough you need to get off your lazy backside and boo. Three, phone Talk Sport. I cannot emphasis strongly enough how important this is, the best show to call is hosted by Adrian Durham, he talks nothing but common sense.

Anyway back to the match, my good friend Gillespie Road Gary emailed me his predictions regarding the team selection and scores, here they are.

All right Stew? Here’s the line up I would hope to see today:

Szczęsny (should never of sold him, Cech has been a disaster)

Bellerin (didn’t put a foot wrong why was he dropped? now bound to go back to Barcelona – well done Arsen you just lost another one)

Gabriel Paulista (time to retire the Big Slow Fucking Useless German)

Koscielny (accident prone – remember the League Cup final? – but of course we haven’t signed a replacement have we so we’re stuck with him)

Gibbs (English – why would Wenger favour the Spanish national team by picking Monreal? Why haven’t we won the World Cup since he came to the country? Think about it)

Schneiderlin (except of course we let him go to Man United didn’t we?)

Hayden (the boy is ready, we all saw him at the Emirates Cup, should never of been allowed out on loan)

That French kid that looked good in pre season.

Walcott (have to pick him now we’re giving him all that money)

Chamberlain (English – see Gibbs)

Wellbeck (English and even injured he has to be better than Giroo)

um how many is that, hang on, oh shit I missed out Sanchez.

I predict we’ll lose 3 – 0.

Cheers,

Gary.

Enjoy the match, I’ll be in the Two Brewers in Gloucester Road for a few pints before kick off if you want to meet to discuss possible anti Wenger chants and compare banners. You should recognise me I’ll be wearing the JVC yellow away shirt and I have my postcode tattooed on my forehead.

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Does Arsenal First Day Loss Put An End To Its Title Ambitions ?

Posted by shotta_gooner on August 10, 2015 in All Posts

Without confidence you are twice defeated in the race of life. – Marcus Garvey

So, in contrast to the pre-game optimism that Arsenal was a sure thing to the title, a metaphysical force which had swept up even of the most virulent doom-mongers such as Pedro of LeGrove and Phil of Angry of N5, in less than a week normal service has returned and the usual suspects have dismissed any talk of Arsenal’s title-winning ambitions. Post game, after the loss to West Ham. Twitter was awash with recriminations and witch hunts. As I write more is to be expected from the mendacious minions of the mainstream media who must sow tales of woe and doom to a gullible public who have been programmed to treat every win or defeat as a sure ticket to heaven or Armageddon. A measured, detached reaction to one unusual event does not sell newspapers or websites, a fact well known to those who make the bottom line the primary measure of success of their publication.

For us at PA and elsewhere, given our attachment to the fortunes of our football club it is understandable that most of us are super-happy, and twitter-bubbly after a win versus a 180 degree different reaction to a loss. In fact our feelings after today’s setback will be exacerbated by this being the first game of a new season their being such expectations fuelled by the mainstream media.

But our emotional highs and the lows have no bearing on the eventual position of the team. Two years ago we had a horrible opening-day loss to a Aston Villa with a virtual revolt in the support base as the black scarfers, bin-baggers and assorted malcontents went on the warpath, demanding Wenger be sacked. Yet the club ended the season in 4th place with 72 points and most importantly winning its first significant trophy in 9 years, the FA-Cup.

This setback vs West Ham is no different.

Despite the defeat, this team is statistically on track to compete for the PL title. This group is essentially unchanged since it went on a title-winning run since January of this year amassing 14-Wins, 3-Losses and 3 draws with 39 goals For and 13 Against. This is an average of 2.25 points per game. Projected over a 38 game season this yields a total of 86 points. For comparison’s sake, Chelsea won the title by earning one point more.

Of course there are those who will argue that performance over a past season has no bearing on the next. That is like saying Chelsea winning the title 2014-15 season has no bearing on those making predictions they will win in 15-16. No such departure from logic by the good and great in the Guardian on August 5th:

Last season Chelsea were unparalleled in attack until mid-January, and unbeatable in defence thereafter. In short they weren’t just the best team in the division – they were the best two teams in the division, and despite a lack of summer signings whichever one turns up this time must be favourites once again. – Simon Burnton

Chelsea carried all before them last season and demonstrated an ability to grind out results as well as scintillate. The rest have been playing catch-up ever since but, if José Mourinho’s transfer dealings serve to reinvigorate, the champions should remain a step ahead. – Dominic Fifield

Or from the BBC’s Alan Shearer, two days later:

But Chelsea are still the team to beat because of their experience and I also think they will be better than they were last year when Diego Costa was injured a lot last season and Cesc Fabregas did not play his best football from February onwards.

Unable to disprove the fact that Arsenal’s form in 2015 has been compelling, there are those who prefer to argue that Arsenal will implode as they often did in the past 10 years. Arguably most of these failures were due of the plague of injuries which have weakened the past squads at critical junctures in past seasons, the splintering in two places of Eduardo’s foot in 08-09 being the most egregious example.

This I agree will be the most important impediment to Arsenal sustaining its form throughout this season. That was the experience in the first half of last season when injuries to Giroud, Debuchy, Ozil and Koscielny put paid to any serious title challenge, despite the consistent run starting in January when most of these players resumed playing. The club is certainly aware of the need to curb this problem with the appointment of one of the leading experts, Shad Forsythe, to oversee player fitness.

Interestingly, despite the frequent assertions of many that the manager must be mishandling the players resulting in so many injuries, an actuarial study has found that injuries is the price of success for top teams like Arsenal:

Success comes with a particular price for teams who earn the right to play in European club competitions. A player who plays for a team that finished in the top seven places in the previous season is more likely to suffer an injury than a player from a lower team. This is exacerbated for teams finishing as champions and runners-up. What is more, players in the more successful clubs take longer to heal, with those from the top four being out of action for longer than the league average. – Actuarial Post

While Premier League history does show a pattern of the eventual champions starting off their campaign with a victory, the most successful team, Manchester United with their 15 titles, had a recent tradition of starting slowly and building up an almost unstoppable head of steam. Most have forgotten that in their 12-13 campaign they had a loss on opening day, and that their 3 previous title winning campaigns were on the back of draws at the start.

Clearly there is no historical basis for the writing off our league chances because of one aberrant performance. Rather it is a timely opportunity for Wenger to give the players, especially those who are senior members, a kick up the backside for seriously under-performing.

As Andrew Nicoll (@anicoll5) so pointedly reminded us “One down, thirty seven PL games to go.”

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