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Arsenal Versus Stoke: Putting Lipstick On A Pig

Exciting, free flowing Stoke City travel south to London today, whetting the appetite of sports fans across the nation. Mark Hughes brings an expensively assembled team of international all star talent to a clash already being labelled as beauty meets the beast. The home team, dogged, predictable Arsenal, have already earned a reputation for grinding out the kind of dour performances which garner points but not many friends.

As a player the Stoke manager was known for his quick thinking, fleet footed, grace and elegance and was loved and respected by team mates and opposition players alike. It is little surprise therefore that his management style has become synonymous with the very best that the beautiful game has to offer. What of his opposite number this afternoon? The home dugout will be marked by the fierce frowns of Arsène Wenger and Steve Bould, two men for whom the word pragmatism has taken on an almost religious significance.

Once upon a time, younger readers will be surprised to learn, Monsieur Wenger had hoped to carve out a reputation for entertaining, attacking football but was chastened after dragging his once great club through the longest barren trophyless period ever experienced by any football club in any era, ever. No team had so singularly failed to land silverware for so long. Year after year the huge number of trophies available were equally shared among the ninety plus professional English and Welsh teams – all with the notable exception of Arsenal.

Obviously in crisis and lacking the panache displayed by the likes of Mark Hughes in the transfer market, Wenger turned to the fans, recognising their superior wisdom, he begged their advice. Once the previously stubborn manager had made the changes the supporters quite rightly demanded of him (buying expensive players and winning trophies) things began to change for the sleeping London giant. This season they have reached the pinnacle of the supporters hopes, the apotheosis of their dreams. This season Arsenal have at last discovered the art of winning ugly.

The visitors on the other hand are awash with ebullient, effervescent crowd pleasing players deftly snatched from all around the globe by a forward thinking manager keen to match his interpretation of the game, the Ballet of The Potteries, against the rugged, uncompromising, no frills approach championed by Bould and his boss.

Actually, now I come to read that back I wonder if I might not have spent a little too much of the interminable international break reading the sports pages of our national press. Holy moley – that was an horrendous thing to inflict on a football loving public wasn’t it? We wait all summer for the bloody football to start and just as the wheels start to turn the entire train is pitched off the tracks and replaced with that most insipid pointless clapped out old charabanc that is international football.

I tried to follow Wales in some misplaced solidarity with Aaron but that all fizzled out and in any case the sight that greeted me when I tuned in was enough to discolour the bath enamel. The vision of Gareth Bale looking as if he’d been badly drawn by a Japanese children’s cartoonist soon had me reaching first for the off switch and then for the Alka-Seltzer. Add to that the hype surrounding the media’s darling, that rotund, out of form, anti-legend and his England goal scoring record, and my tin hat stayed firmly in place. I only left the Anderson shelter this morning when it seemed safe so to do.

The depressing news from Arsène is that Tomáš Rosický’s knee surgery will be keeping him out for a while yet. The fact that he was put onto the surgeon’s table as a result of playing in a stupid international is enough to make me want to chew razor blades. I’ve lost count of how many players we’ve lost to this nonsense but with Tomáš in the twilight of his career every game he misses takes on a greater significance. How we could have done with his input when things went a little awry in our early matches this season. How I mourn his continued absence.

Likewise Danny Welbeck is languishing on the orlop deck with the sawn off limbs, the extracted musket balls and the bloodied wooden splinters. A shame for the player who many of us suspected might make a real impact this season. He strikes me as the kind of footballer Arsène likes to work with. Young, a point to prove, lean and fast. Still, he might yet raise a few eyebrows during the closing overs of this campaign, the timing may yet prove fortuitous.

Today’s selection question must centre around our genteel giant German centre half. Will he stroll nonchalantly and with perfect timing back into the first eleven or has Gabriel had long enough, or done enough, to deserve an extended run? I have to say I’m happy whatever the outcome. Per is right up there among my favourite players but I really think our Brazilian with the idiosyncratic good looks is a heck of a player. His calmness when those around and behind him have looked, on occasions, less sanguine than we might hope, was eye catching. As I say, either or Arsène – I’ll leave that selection to you, the über bloggers can then decide on the rest of the team.

Can anyone remember what the hell was happening before our enforced hibernation? If memory serves, and I must warn you the old grey matter is showing distinct signs of decay these days, I believe we’ve played four. Two home, two away and while we are flawless on the road we’ve tripped over the kids toys a couple of times while running around in our own back garden. We create more, have more of the ball than anyone else and pass as accurately as the best of the rest but we don’t score enough goals. I think that sums up the early season form. Which leads me to the conclusion that we need to score more goals, especially at home. By God, this football analysis is a pretty easy beast to ride. No wonder journalists feel the need to make so much stuff up.

While my opening paragraphs were, of course, whimsical, specious and written merely to amuse, there was an underlying truth. Stoke City has been trying to change its image, keep the ball on the grass and trouble the local ambulance service a little less. To a certain extent it has been successful. Pulis was rightly famous for keeping Stoke out of the relegation area. During his reign of terror the club vacillated between 11th and 14th position in the league and earned a hard won reputation for thuggery and anti football. Under Mark Hughes they have improved their playing style and their league standing but I maintain that any club boasting Ryan Shawcross and Charles Adam among its playing staff has an awfully long way to go down the road to Damascus. Under Mark Hughes the full on leg breaking assaults may have diminished but more often than not they have been replaced with a more cunning system of rotational fouling, targeting certain opposition players and going in late in the hope that the ball and the referee will have moved on. A comment on Fans Network summed it up for me

They are not a split second late when fouling, they are a full second or two, by which time the ref has followed play on, as has the Lino. Calculated sneaky tactics by Hughes.

We don’t want to focus too much on the opposition though do we? Today is about how we cope with both them and the pressure from the home fans, and how the referee conducts himself. If we see a similarly robust performance from the man with the whistle as that to which we were treated at St James’ Park (and yes I know Andre Marriner got an awful lot horribly wrong as well) then Stoke will be forced to try to beat us or earn a point through legitimate means alone.

I am ever hopeful that the many chances we create will result in goals and today is as good a day as any for that to start. Arsène once said of Aaron, once he starts scoring he won’t be able to stop and I have a similar feeling about this team. The transfer junkies may be convinced that the only way to improve our ‘goals for’ column was by spending vast sums of money but I look at Walcott, Giroud, Sanchez and Welbeck and I see goal scorers. Our midfield is none too shabby in that respect either and even Nacho and Hector popped up with a couple of beauties last season. When you consider that both centre backs have a habit of sticking it in the net at important moments too you can see why I’m not worried about our potential to score.

Three points, a resounding return to goal scoring form and Hughes’ niggly, nasty team sent packing with its tail firmly between its legs and I will be a happy blogger come five o’clock this afternoon.

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Data-Based Arsenal

In a matter of days, the international break will be over and both the clubs and their fans will be back to the business of real football. The latter is not another snide put-down of the international game, which in my opinion is an important counter-weight to the narrow self interest of money-driven clubs.  However the best footballers and coaches in the world are competing at the top 4 or 5 leagues in Europe over a sustained 8-9 month period for some of the biggest prizes whether it be their national league or one of the UEFA titles. This is where the real action is, not on some bumpy field in San Marino vs some journeymen and part-timers.

To illustrate my point, despite a number of exciting games over the week-end between countries aspiring for the next UEFA finals (and for the next World Cup in the case of my Concacaf), the most enduring image I have of those exertions was of Wales, at home, struggling to breakdown a defensive-minded Israeli side with none other than former Chelsea journey man defender, Tal Ben Haim, looking like a top-class footballer. Last time Ben Haim played professional football in England, he was turning out for Charlton in the Championship. Cookie Coleman, the Welsh manager, who has already been chewed-up and spat out by the Premier League, had no Ozil or Cazorla to put beside Ramsay (or Ronaldo and Benzema alongside Bale). Instead he had the “great” Hal Robson-Kanu, a winger at championship-side Reading, as his sole striker huffing and puffing away for 80 plus minutes to the delight of Ben Haim and company.

That is why most of us welcome club football. There is no hiding place from the real competitive world. No place for excuses from managers that they had no players to choose, blah, blah, blah. There is also no hiding place from the data. It is remarkable how much statistics is being collected in club football, some of which is released in the public domain as is evident in websites like Squawka, Transfermkt, WhoScored etc. It is well known that infinitely more information is held in proprietary databases and only available to those with the big bucks.

In the case of our club, Arsenal, as far back as 2012 they purchased their own data analytics company, StatDNA, for £2.165m. Very little is said publicly about the company. We know it is US-based with a massive workforce in east Asia (India?) According to the Guardian, Arsenal is reluctant to divulge anything about StatDNA’s methods but quoted Ivan Gazidis with the following:

“The company is an expert in the field of sports data performance analysis, which is a rapidly developing area and one that I, and others, believe will be critical to Arsenal’s competitive position,

“The insights produced by the company are widely used across our football operations – in scouting and talent identification, in game preparation, in post-match analysis and in gaining tactical insights.”

Since then very little details have been given about the use of StaDNA in the footballing decisions at the club except for some remarks made by Arsene into the signing of Gabriel in the last January transfer window. According to the Guardian he was asked whether the decision was based on data analytics and that in response he had been coy. But he did discuss how he had monitored Gabriel by his numbers and how StatDNA had mitigated the potential risks.

 “We look at interceptions, defensive errors, winning tackles – what we call tackles is committing to win the ball,”

Despite or in spite of the abundant media evidence that the football club is significantly committed to using data to support its decision making, we have the same newspapers and websites going over the top after the close of the transfer window with banner headlines declaring a virtual disaster because the club decided against signing an outfield player (apparently Jeff is the new Invisible Man). So what is the data telling us after four games.

For the first time I am trying some graphics in the hope it tells the story better than some drab tables.  In this and ensuing bar charts I will be comparing the 3-year average (full seasons) for last year’s top-six clubs versus the 2015-16 season to date.goals per game

In the Goals per Game department, the information here is relatively straightforward. Apart from Man City, who are way ahead of their recent average, none of the other five clubs have hit their stride. While Arsenal shares the same cluster with United and Tottenham, it is noticeable that at this stage Liverpool is scoring 25% less goals than average. (Cue the cries for a world-class striker, not.) The safe conclusion to be drawn is that Arsenal and the other laggards will gradually get their scoring up and that City may have great difficulty sustaining their numbers given their continued reliance on Aguero for goals.chances per game

Despite most of them lagging significantly in goal scoring, last year’s top six clubs, except AFC, are relatively close to their averages in chance creation. AFC however is a clear outperformer at an insane level of 16.25 chances per game compared to 3-year average of 11.71, a 25% improvement. As with City and goal scoring, it is questionable whether this level can be sustained over the season given it is relatively the same midfield over the past 2-3 years.conversion rate

Finally, the data in relation to conversion rates among the top-6 is quite interesting.  Clearly Man City is blazing holes in the old onion bag with a conversion rate of 17%. This strike rate is only 1% higher than the 3-year average of 16%. In his past two years at City Pellegrini has set up his team to score goals with 102 and 83 successively compared to 66 in Mancini’s last year. These rates are a trend not an aberration.  Among the rest, all are off their 3-year average especially AFC at a puny 5%. As I have observed on this blog and elsewhere this is a statistical outlier and sooner or later, preferably the former, Arsenal will return to its average of 1.85 goals per game.  It is statistically inevitable.

Is there any doubt that after getting their after 4-games statistical brief from StatDNA, Arsene and Ivan decided there was no reason to make any panic buys on deadline-day, with or without the injury to Danny Welbeck.

Unlike the media, which thrives on emotion, in the silent statistical world, there are no headlines.  There are no narratives.  No excuses.  No hope and no despair.

Just data.

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Looking Through The Transfer Window

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According to the BBC, close to £1 billion was spent on player acquisition in the just closed transfer window, a new record, up 4% on last year at £870 million.  Factor in new salaries and the £1 billion figure may prove a tad conservative, all in. 

Some of these players come from other Premier League clubs but a huge number came from abroad. It’s hard to get accurate numbers but something approaching 160 players joined PL clubs and close to a staggering 300 were moved on, being sold, loaned or otherwise released. Getting a handle on exactly how many have joined and left, and how much money has been spent or accrued from sales, is a tricky business as ‘sources’ all suggest slightly different numbers depending upon which flavour you choose to consult. All the numbers in this article should therefore be treated with some caution and are offered up only as rough guides.

Whilst wholesale squad upgrades might be expected from newly promoted sides and last season’s strugglers (looking at you, Sunderland), the sight of Chelsea moving on around 34 players and Liverpool shifting 22 is something of a surprise. 

Man U have parted with around 14 but arguably with the greatest single collection of well known names saying farewell (Di Maria, Cleverly, Nani, RvP, Evans, Januzaj, Hernandez), their departure board is ostensibly the more shocking.  It’s been reported that to the man, the Manc side that so memorably lost 4-0 at Milton Keynes has now all been shipped out with the exception of De Gea whose registration remains at Man U after this year’s window only thanks, we are led to believe, to Windows ’95 and a corrupt file.  First time for everything, so they say. 

Eighteen are out of Spurs, mostly sold and 4 on loan, according to the Daily Mirror, at least. Watford brought in around 16 players, Villa 13. A bigger surprise here is how few Newcastle – described by some as a ‘zombie’ club – have brought in, around 5 new players.  Most clubs appear to have brought in between 6 and 10 players with Everton and Palace bringing in 6 and 5 respectively.

All well and good, the sheer volume of players – as expertly demonstrated by both Spurs and Liverpool in recent times – is no guarantee of quality.  But aside from the headline numbers, in many ways this has been a remarkable summer of transfers – and non-transfers.

At one time this summer, Man United were ‘associated’ with pretty much every player capable of lacing a pair of boots, both in the EPL and further afield.  That they ended up with just seven new players was more by accident than design and de farce of De Gea’s ‘transfer’ left them with more than egg on their faces. Whilst failing to reluctantly sell their best player from last season, they plunged in with a highly speculative £57.5 million (according to Monaco) splurge on a 19 year old with zero Premier League experience and few goals anywhere. The two biggest elephants in the red half of Manchester squat firmly on questions surrounding the manager:

Why can’t LvG can’t get on with anyone and why do so few players want to move to Man U?  

I just can’t work it out at all.  At the time of writing there are no accurate estimates available for the numbers of players in or out of the club that LvG has not, so far, fallen out with. 

That Angel di Maria features in the list of the vanquished is surely the single most telling factor in assessing LvG’s man-management performance to date with rumours of player tears at tea-time by no means uncommon.  And LvG appears to have left himself short at the front having retained from the old guard only Rooney and a strikingly rebranded Fellaini to perform the scoring honours; given the disastrous goal-keeping situation, this seems a little careless and it means much must ride on the immediate success of young Mr Martial as well as the hope that De Gea can be simultaneously rehabilitated for his final season in the North.

But Man u are by no means alone, at least when it comes to player retention.  

Brendan has now jettisoned something like half the players he (or his ‘committee’) has signed since he joined Liverpool a mere three years ago.  This season alone 15 have gone on loan and 7 sold. Players on loan are not necessarily a negative but in the context of The ‘Suarez Money’ which, like the ‘Bale Money’ before it, is largely a distant fiscal memory, one has to wonder about Rodgers’ ability to target the players the club actually needs.  And the trend, nay stampede, of departing players making their escape from Merseyside is hardly a source of celebration for anyone connected with the club. Yes, Arsenal have player turnover but the big difference lies in the significantly larger amount of cash spent on ‘duds’ by Liverpool in the process.

Chelsea have shipped out a staggering 26 players on loan (Daily Mirror) leaving one to wonder why would anyone bother to sign for Chelsea?

The defending champions have had an appalling start to the season both on and off the pitch and one wonders how much time and energy they must waste dealing with players they don’t really want. Is it simply Jose’s appalling nature that means they require a gigantic pool of players for him to dip in and out of depending on who or what he is blaming for any given setback at any one time.

So who DID have a good window? Man City have done themselves little harm in restricting themselves to around 7 new players but they have spent over £150 million, including daft sums on Sterling (£49 million) and Kevin De Bryne (£51 million). And these are in positions they arguably, and especially in De Bruyne’s case, did not need to fill. Only ten players left the club but Nasri will get his own name plate added to the bench …

And what of Arsenal who have sold six and loaned or released about eleven. It’s still a fair number, but it’s offset by the singular, towering figure of Petr Cech’s arrival in goal.  The release of the news of Welbeck’s surgery mere hours after the closure of the window emphasises still further how few viable strikers there appear to be available to buy, and it puts United and City’s excessive expenditures in this area into some kind of perspective.  

The point at which demand becomes desperation is moot but few would be surprised at Arsenal’s reticence to join in and, in any case, as the John Stones example (not to mention, supposedly, Karim Benzema’s) clearly demonstrates, sometimes it’s not all about the money. Add in complicating factors such as diminished sell-on values for the more elderly buying opportunities (Cavani) and the fog starts to clear a little when it comes to understanding Arsenal’s absence of action at this end of the pitch.

Swansea have added Andrew Ayew at no cost, without doubt, one of the buys of the summer. Pedro and Begovic are the stand out buys for Chelsea and silly money was not required to acquire either. For Liverpool only Nathaniel Clyne really stands out although there are great hopes resting on the shoulders of Benteke and they will have Sturridge to one day return. James Milner, on a free but presumably with hefty wages was also a decent addition and Gomiz has made a promising start to the season.

Although they bought no-one of great note, Everton seem to have missed a trick in retaining the much sought after John Stones. One admires their principles and determination to hang on to the lad but at what cost?

And it is surely a sign of the monied times that Stoke have managed to bring in players from Barcelona, Real Madrid, Inter Milan, Chelsea and even Liverpool.  Get that lot performing and they may spring a surprise or two. Who knows, they may even develop a more palatable style of football, unlikely as that presently seems.

So exactly what can be surmised from this summer’s wheelings and dealings? 

For me, the stand out factor was the scarcity of genuine ‘star’ names signed, given the huge sums spent.  Yes, plenty of names we know and a few we with whom we will become re-acquainted.

Pedro, Cech and an ageing Schweinsteiger seem to be the exceptions that prove some kind of rule.

Few of us are sufficiently familiar with all the new players joining the league so the jury remains out but, I think, it is safe to assume an overall increase in the playing standard of the league.  If there were no easy games last season and last season every game seemed to be ‘must win’ then it’s going to be at least 4% harder this year.

Given that all this may come to pass, Arsenal’s solitary signing of Cech may yet prove to be one of the most significant. He joins Kos, Per, Monreal, Bellerin, and Gabriel in forming what may yet prove to be the meanest defence in the league and certainly our best since the Tony Adams’ era.

The value of conceding ever fewer numbers of goals rises exponentially in a league where the ability of most teams to score more has become a reality. That we have lost Welbeck until Xmas becomes more problematical in the event of injury to Giroud, Theo. Alexis or Campbell.  It’s not ideal but it is what it is.

The remaining strikers and the uber attacking nature of our midfield is such that our success in securing Cech may yet outweigh our inability to supplement and strengthen our forward line.

Time will, of course, tell.

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Arsenal Fail To Spend

It appears the transfer window is going to close with Arsenal making just the one signing, that of Petr Cech.

The disappointment of the majority of fans is clear. They wanted more.

They see what they think are weaknesses and can’t understand why these weaknesses have not be addressed. Which is fair enough really because every fan wants to see the team getting stronger and more competitive. Every fan, all of us. To dismiss this feeling of being let down is stupidity. It exists and as such it can’t be ignored.

I read things like this all the time:

You are not telling me with £70 million we can’t buy someone better than Flamini.”

Well actually no one is telling them that – because we could.

Then you get:

If you can’t get world class, you strengthen the squad.”

Now this is when it gets tricky, because this is logic that is undeniable.

It’s a fact that if you replace any player in the squad with a better player, then the chances of winning are increased. The only possible argument against this is that squad harmony could be upset and the famous “cohesion” might be weakened. But that’s a very flimsy argument to say the least. So why not give ourselves the best possible chance of winning?

It’s simple right?

Unfortunately, it’s anything but simple. It never is.

Let’s run with the £70 million figure that seems to be doing the rounds.

If we had used that to buy – let’s say Benzema – that might have given us a 25% (ok, I know I’m pulling figures out of thin air, but bear with me) better chance of winning the league. That’s decent value and money that might be well spent. However, we couldn’t get him. Or Lewandowski or Cavani or Aguero. In fact no one who would increase the chances of winning by that sort of margin.

So let’s say instead we bought Schneiderlin, he is better than Flamini.

Right?

But he is not a DM and so would he be better than Coquelin?

So would he play? Yes he would have been cover, but he might have increased our chances of winning by 1% or 2%. So the outlay must be compared to how much of a better chance it gives us.

Whether we like it or not, football is a business and has to adhere to the basic rules of business and ‘value for money’ is one of those rules.

Someone, be that Arsene, Stan, Ivan or anyone, has to decide how the money is best used.

With transfer inflation it might just be that we can only buy one world class player every other year.

The only thing I know for sure is that I don’t know all the facts and so I can’t really draw any worthwhle conclusions as to why we have not spent more in this particular window.

It looks like we were willing to, but couldn’t find the player or players that would meaningfully increase our chances.

We march on as we are.

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“People Want Success. It’s Like Coffee, They Want Instant” *

My fellow Positivitas, another Sunday has rolled round and with our fourth game of the PL season, has settled. I think we are all now a little more confident and able to raise our eyes to look forward and upward.

The game yesterday was predictable in form.

We dominated possession, pushed the home side back throughout the 90 minutes and rendered them impotent (in any genuine football sense), and earned our expected three points. All Toon had to offer was stout defence, which was to their credit, and mindlessly stupid attempts to boot their way back into the game, normally through Coquelin’s shins, which was not. At one point it appeared the Toon players had lost their collective minds as Marriner had to pull out card after card. Had they found themselves down to nine men, or less, then they would have had only themselves to blame.

“Professional” footballers? Don’t make me laugh.

Some comment has been made concerning the sending off and that it had a significant influence on the outcome of the game. I don’t think so. We had dominated the game before the Serbian got his marching orders. We dominated the game exactly the same afterwards. Newcastle were pinned like a butterfly on a mounting board before the 16th minute, they remained pinned to the 93rd minute. I would agree that there are some games when a sending-off can be pivotal, just not yesterday.

Credit to young Francis. I suspect he was targeted by McLaren on the basis that, as a young player, he would lose his head and retaliate. He kept a commendably cool demeanour and let Marriner do his job. I say that maturity and good sense is another indicator of how far, and how fast, the young Frenchman has developed since his return from Charlton.

As for what I thought we did well yesterday I was hugely impressed by the work of both full backs. Defensively they had almost nothing to do but both worked tirelessly to support the attack, to offer an outside option around the Barcodes’ banks of four, and Hector was unlucky to miss out on the penalty that his excellent touch had caused. Both Nacho and Hector used the ball sensibly, passed carefully. A pleasure to watch. Against the lesser sides the attacking contribution of our full backs can be crucial. I would like to see both taking a few pot shots as well.

Good performances from Santi and Aaron, Gabriel sharp and ready to go as a starter, if required.

Less well?

I hardly need to point of the finishing, with Theo and eventually Olly not converting chances that on another day would have given us a far more comfortable afternoon. To be fair to both, only one was a wild miss, with Krul making two good saves for the others. Our lack of quality finishing concerns me, it concerns Wenger, I have no bloody doubt it concerns Theo and Giroud. Hard work needed in training and Danny back after the International break offers the answer, I suspect.

What the opposition did well?

Colloccini is such a good centre back I wonder what he has done wrong to have had to play for Newcastle for the past seven years, especially when you see some of the talentless donkeys signed by CL clubs in England, Spain, Italy and Germany in the years since 2008 (Yes Pepe I am referring to you among others). Coloccini was a rock yesterday in the air and on the ground. Excruciating that the Argentine was the one that deflected in Ox’s shot for the winner yesterday.

I salute you Fabricio as a worthy opponent.

On the “looking upwards” vibe we have slipped into fifth in the table on the strength of probably playing about 85-90% of our potential. Citeh remain the team to beat. Interesting next round of PL games though. We have Stoke at the Ems, assuming they still have 11 players eligible to play.

Elsewhere Manyoo at home to Liverpool, Chelsea at Goodison and most intriguing Citeh travel to Selhurst Park. Both Mancs side face tricky games, and if Chelsea are going to revive, then they face a battle against Everton and a pissed off Martinez after their behaviour with Stones.

Small steps in a long campaign.

Enjoy Sunday!!

*Sir Bobby Robson (as if you didn’t know ) 18 February 1933 – 31 July 2009

107 Comments

Arsenal Versus Newcastle: The Narrow Road to the Deep North East

Have You Ever Seen A Sadder Looking Dog?

Where do I begin? We’re three games into a spluttering start to a season which promises much but has yet to deliver. We’ve lost one on a bewildering afternoon which felt like watching a match after inadvertently switching the Splenda for a tab of acid, nothing quite made sense. We’ve won one in a gruelling fashion which should have been much easier and experienced a draw that felt more like a defeat. It’s been a funny old time.

Perhaps that’s why so many people obsessed over the draw for the European Cup. Anything to take their thoughts away from a difficult few weeks. I didn’t pay any attention to such nonsense for a couple of reasons. Mainly because I felt so low after we were effectively robbed of the points on Monday night that I wanted nothing to do with football for a few days. The other reason was that the announcement of the teams in our group is meaningless. It isn’t a match. Nothing is decided. It just provides an excuse for utterly pointless conjecture as to the outcome of games yet to be played, some of which are still a very long way off. No one to my knowledge has ever predicted the outcome of our matches in the group stage with any accuracy and so the thought of joining such foolishness and speculation left me completely cold.

Then Friday rolled up and I suddenly realised we had a game the next day. And that of course means that a blog hungry public will be wiping the sleep from its eyes and rushing to Positively Arsenal for some words of wisdom. I needed to get an early night, wake up fresh and full of exciting insights into the team and its visit to the North East.

And so here I am. Coffee and muesli despatched with my customary aplomb and this blank page in front of me. The problem of the pre match blog so early in the season is there is so little one can say about either team. As Shotta pointed out in his excellent post the stats suggest that we will come good, we’re making far too many chances not to and we have the personnel who know how to stick ’em away. But that is a fruit which will ripen only in the fullness of time. Right now we’re not in any kind of rhythm when it comes to converting the many chances created. Likewise our opponents today are only three games in and have also posted indifferent results. We know from their recent encounter with Man U that they are capable of some resolute if occasionally last ditch defending we also know they’ve only scored two in three and that has cost them. But then I could say pretty much the same about us. It’s all too unpredictable right now and as you know I’ve never been much of a one for tea leaf gazing parapsychology.

We were quite clearly unsettled by the suddenly thrown together defence on Monday but I was more interested with how the unit grew into the game and put their panicky start behind them. Gabriel especially looked the part by the time the second half got under way and I am confident they will be better today regardless of who starts. Players put each other under pressure with poor passes in and around the area but they did so while trying to do the right thing and that is key. Piss poor play because you don’t know better is a big worry, a hapless execution of an otherwise sound plan is far less of a concern because it is unlikely to be repeated. One glimmer of encouragement was Cech’s performance. He made a couple of decent saves and I hope he has his mojo back because a strong confident keeper is so important when your defence is pulled apart by injuries.

Inspired by Shotta’s effort I thought I would try to do a bit of research for you today. I went to Steve Maclaran’s post match interview following Newcastle’s previous home game and attempted to listen to it. First of all I have to say it came as something of a surprise as I didn’t realise he was the manager at St James’ Park, I thought it was one of Alan Pardew’s coaching staff who’s name temporarily escapes me. Not wishing to appear ignorant I was hoping the manager’s comments would offer an insight into the way his team play and I could base some sort of hashed together pseudo analysis upon this but quite frankly it was like listening to Michael Owen delivering a eulogy. I drifted off fairly early on and apart from him saying something about several of his players having no legs after sixty minutes nothing really went home. An inspirational team talker I suspect he is not. However I have to say if the legs thing is true then we ought to be in with a bit of a chance of a few late goals. I may be no tactical expert but I am pretty certain that an ambulant opposition would be considerably harder to circumvent.

Ensuring that Newcastle don’t resort to the tried and tested practice of attempting to remove the legs of any Arsenal players will be the job of that cheeky scamp Andre Marriner. Now, I may not be any good at predicting the line up nor the result, and frankly my dear I don’t give two hoots for attempting to do either but there are still some certainties in life. The BT Sports commentary will be so woeful that I will turn it off after about eight minutes, switch to the Arsenal Player commentary, turn that off after they’ve read the eleventh email from a disgruntled fan demanding we sign a new defensive midfielder and go into the other room to watch the match on a Russian Sopcast stream. The other fact we can know in advance without fear of contradiction is that Andre Marriner will make some astonishingly bad decisions but unlike many other refs won’t be overly biased against Arsenal just generally incompetent. Although Andrew Crawshaw at Untold Arsenal suggests that Marriner’s real blind spot comes when Arsenal players are fouled in the penalty area. The best advice is to stay on your feet and keep going no matter how blatant the offence because we won’t get the spot kick anyway. To that end I think Theo should play because he’s like one of those slinky spring things that rolls right over, bounces back up and keeps on going whereas Olly being larger and heavier on his toes is more likely to go down like a felled redwood. That’s as close to a PA writer making team suggestions as you will ever get so make the most of it.

Along with team and tactical predictions the other thing I never usually insult you with is suggesting that the three points is all that matters. This trite and tired observation so beloved of just about every other blog is the one thing guaranteed to get my goat. The game is about entertainment and while Monday night’s result may have left us all down in the dumps there was some wonderful football played and I spent the night on the edge of my seat, which is surely what entertainment is all about. I am about to use the word ‘however’. Prepare yourselves. However I have come to the tentative conclusion that maybe we need to just win a few games, get some points in the bag no matter how, if for no other reason than to settle the players down and get them back into their groove. Today and for the next couple of matches maybe the win is more important than the performance. Perhaps, just perhaps those slick performances will start to flow if the side aren’t playing catch up because of points dropped in the previous match. Who knows? Stranger things have happened. Anyway, whatever the line up, whatever the result my faith in the squad, manager and his staff will remain unshaken and I will look forward to each game with the same excitement as I did the last, after all what is the alternative? Wallow in the mire of despair? Yell at the kids? Kick the dog? Go on Twitter and abuse Monsieur Wenger? I don’t think so. I’m a supporter, I think I’ll just support.

 

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Countering The White Flag Brigade at The Arsenal

After the disappointment of not winning at home vs Liverpool, there was the expected emotional reaction by many pundits and fans who have concluded after the first three games of the season that Arsenal cannot contend for the title.

1-Win, 1-Draw and 1-Loss and we are already out of the runnings.

In this rush to judgment various justifications are offered. The most popular thesis is we lack a world class striker, ergo we shall fail to score goals. To back up this argument there is a virtual panic over our goal-scoring so far. I will admit that after three games the figures (compliments of Squawka) are ugly:

TO DATE
Total Goals Scored 2
Avg Goals Per Game 0.66
Total Chances Created 49
Shot Accuracy 44%

The implication, by those already running up the white flag of surrender, is at the current rate Arsenal will end the season with only 39 goals and a shot accuracy that will barely surpass Aston Villa’s infamous strike rate of 44% in the 2014-15 season.

Obviously these pessimistic projections are nonsensical and unrealistic for a team of Arsenal’s quality, unless you are a blatant fear-monger. Whilst not every pundit or blogger goes to these extremes, on a repetitive and consistent basis, the fear is being sown that we do not have the strikers to score enough goals to win games. As would be expected, hopefully by readers of this blog, the record speaks a totally different story.

Just take the past three years, which by the way, concurs with Giroud’s arrival at the club and assumption of the role of main striker.

2012-13 2013-14 2014-15 AVG
Total Goals Scored 72 68 71 70
Avg Goals Per Game 1.89 1.79 1.87 1.85
Total Chances Created 461 404 470 445
Shot Accuracy 48% 54% 52% 51%

The figures demonstrate that based on Total Chances Created we are consistently a 70 goal per season team. Furthermore with our non-world class strike force we have a team which will consistently score from 16% of chances created.

Yet there is very little attention in the press, and obviously none can be expected from the fear mongers, to the fact that so far this season Arsenal is creating chances at the rate of knots.  For the season-to-date we are creating 16 chances per game which, if the rate is maintained, will total 620 for the season. If we sustain our 3-year average conversion rate then we should score 99 goals for the season. Rosy projections obviously but the figures suggest we should exceed Total Goals Scored if we sustain our average. Any professional forecaster would probably plump for a figure somewhere in the middle and project 84 goals for the season.

Arsene Wenger is obviously not in panic mode.  In his pre-Newcastle presser he made the following observation:

“Maybe we are not firing on all cylinders at the moment. By definition, the finishing is a little bit cyclical and it goes in cycles. Finishing qualities come and go and you do not always know why, but certainly at the moment we want it so much at home that we’re trying to force it a little bit.

Somebody needs to remind the White Flag Brigade it is still August. The race has just started and far from decided. We are 8th in the tables, ahead of the defending champions by goal difference. The team is creating chances at a mega rate. History guarantees that as sure as night follows day the goals will come. Roll on Newcastle.

Postscript: Almost a full hour after I signed off on this blog and submitted it for publishing, a story appeared online by Jeremy Wilson of The Telegraph here which was directly sourced from the club and not made on background under the cloak of anonymity, where Wenger made it clear he is concerned about the speculative attacks on the club which are not fact based.

The only thing I want is that when people have opinions, it is documented and worked out before … especially when it is football specialists.”

Without trying to ride on Wenger’s coat-tails, I must admit some satisfaction that Positively Arsenal is one of a few blogs that has been trying to use publicly available data to counter some of the damaging, baseless propaganda that is put in the public sphere not only by the club’s adversaries (PL rivals, greedy-agents, self-serving journalists, etc) but by its own (ex-players turned pundit, Arsenal bloggers and podcasters). Given the easy access to the internet, it only takes a few minutes of research to unearth tons of information proving that Gary Neville, Thierry Henry, Jaime Carragher and company are often talking a load of bollocks and simply giving comfort to the malcontents (George) and those suffering from dysphoria (Andrew Nicoll). We have said it often, on this and another blog which many of us once frequented, that this mindless negativity affects the team, especially in our own stadium. Now we have confirmation by the boss:

“What is a concern is that it puts pressure on players. I love that they [former players] go on television, but what I would like is for them to help people to love football even more. The first mission is to educate people. That is fantastic because the guy can explain things that the guy who has not played at the top level can understand and to get people to really love the game. Some do it very well. The other way I don’t like so much.”

I think he has given us more than enough reason to do our little part in countering the narrative of the White Flag Brigade.

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Can Arsenal Win With Lightweights?

We like to hear things that reinforce our opinions.

We agree with those that have the same opinions as us and argue against those who have opinions that differ. Of course we do.  Why would we not? I have yet to meet someone that thinks their opinion is wrong. If they did they would change it. So everyone thinks their opinion is right.

The problem starts when we argue against someone with superior knowledge of a subject and refuse to entertain the idea that they are more likely to be right than we are.

The problem with football is most people believe they have a great knowledge when in fact, in most cases, mine included, it’s nothing more than a basic layman’s knowledge. Then someone comes along – let’s say someone like Gary Neville – and says the same as you. Now Gary clearly has better than a layman’s knowledge so you hold him up as evidence that not only were you right, but you know as much as him, because you have drawn the same conclusions.

To me though, this a a bit like feelling unwell and wanting the opinion of a consultant to confirm your self-diagnosis; instead you speak to a nurse and because he/she confirms your thoughts, you are happy to accept this opinion.

What are pundits though?

As a rule they are either ex-footballers that were good at kicking a ball and not much else, serially failed managers or shock-jock second-rate journalists. They are employed for their entertainment value much more than their football nous.

As a rule they are “paint by numbers” in their thinking. They stick to the formula of how the layman sees the game. How many times do we hear “the United way, the Liverpool way or the Arsenal way” with pundits insisting that managers should stick to a sometimes 40- or 50-year old way of playing, because that once brought that club success. They pick the moment in time where the club had its greatest success with its greatest team and players and insist that is the template.

In the case of Arsenal that’s The Invincibles.

Arsene mixed that formula, it brought unprecedented success and he should stick to it.

Simples.

Well that might well work if the game had not moved on, if pitches had not improved, if the technical excellence of top players had not improved or perhaps if players as good as those from the previous era are now available to be bought and kept.

However, if you attempt to stick to that formula with lesser players, in a different environment, the chances are success will not follow.

If you are playing Dembélé, Schneiderlin and Remy for Vieira, Gilberto and Henry (because they are the nearest you can get or afford) then will it work? I would suggest not.

If you do what many clubs do and follow the formula of buying the best player you can afford, in the accepted mould, you will finish behind clubs that follow the same formula but can buy better players.

A player like Santi would never see the light of day in mid-field.

It might be that we can’t win the league with diminutive technical players like Santi, Jack, Ozil and Rosicky, but I suggest we have a better chance than with second-rate players that fit the accepted mould.

Pedantic George @Blackburngeorge

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Reality Leaves A Lot To The Imagination*

Morning +++’ers and I guess that like me you have been gently turning over last night’s game, like a tumble dryer at a slow speed, little flashes of bright cloth, amid a whirl of rather confused and apparently damp fabric.

What of the contest itself?

A disturbing first half. Hesitation, nervousness and careless passing from the outset which appeared to accelerate as Liverpool sensed they might be on for a win and pressed us hard in our half of the pitch. Ironically the best Arsenal pass of the first half which led to Aaron’s ‘goal’ came from Santi, who seemed like he was ill. No, seriously, he looked a bit dazed as he trotted about. His passing was way off target. As for the ‘goal’ how long is professional football going to look ridiculous by refusing to employ technology to assist officials, then bleat long and loud about terrible decisions by officials? I am hopeful that it may happen in my lifetime, though probably not Blatter’s.

As for the other 44 minutes, Le Coq stepped in twice with two decisive and, thank the Lord, clean tackles to deny Scouse forwards bearing down on Cech. One great save and one good save by the Czech/poor finish by Benteke, left us clinging on at half time. So many of those Liverpool chances came as a result of errors on our part, failing to clear a ball, losing it 25 yards out etc. And it was not just Chambers and Gabriel, it was most of the players in red and white shirts.

And when we returned and Mr Oliver peeped the second period into life the world turned upside down. Passes hit their intended receiver (quite NFL that phrase, I shall use it again), Liverpool looked increasingly ragged and could not retain the ball, their young Gomez had to resort to niggly fouls to keep the left-hand side controlled, we made many chances in the box, Giroo huffed, Ozil puffed, Mignolet pulled off a couple of good saves …….. But, disappointingly, we failed to bring the house down. Good contribution from the Ox, Sanchez looked a little subdued. Gabriel looked very assured throughout the second 45 against an aggressive and increasingly frustrated Benteke. Theo unfortunately anonymous for his 10 minute cameo. No cigar last night son.

A point gained, two points dropped? It was the right result on the game so I say the former.

What of the opponents?

In spite of myself I was impressed. A polished performance, particularly at the back from Loveren and Skrtel, Clyne solid, Coutinho tricky. They could be genuine Top 4 contenders again, especially with no Euro distractions. What on earth was Mignolet doing time wasting though?  Idiotic attitude – you had the game in the palm of your glove you fool  – and you were running the clock down. Almost unfathomably stupid.

What of the Arsenal?

Simple solution, score goals to translate footballing superiority into points in the table. We have intelligent and experienced players. I have no doubt that will be Mr Wenger’s priority as he strides into Colney today. I have no idea how he will go about it, that is not my job.

Anyway the game gives me a chance to repeat my favourite five minute home movie of football, A Night At The Emirates. Even if you have seen it before, watch it again.

Enjoy your Tuesday.

*John Lennon 9th October 1940 – 8th December 1980

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Arsenal Versus Liverpool: Breaking Warren’s Heart

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I bumped into Warren on Thursday, I was haggling in a camera shop, he was mooching about town with his daughter. We haven’t seen much of each other lately so we pressed pause in our respective schedules and brought one another up to date. As with most people in these circumstances it wasn’t long before the conversation strayed to that mutually agreeable safe ground of football. I suggested that the next time his team were playing and it was on one of the channels I have available on the old flat screen I should negotiate with she who must be grovelled to and fawned upon for the use of the front room, and he might care to join me.

Taking me by the elbow, he pointed out gently, with the solicitude usually reserved for guiding an elderly psychiatric patient back into the grounds of the home, that the next time his team was playing was in fact on Monday night. Against my team. Warren is, you see, a Liverpool supporter and I hadn’t looked to see when our next fixture was nor who we would be playing. I’ve never been particularly good at keeping up with current events and in my present befuddled state I confess this particular penny had entirely failed to drop.

A silence, gravid with unspoken meaning passed slowly and of course silently between us. Perhaps, we agreed, Monday might not be the best night. Could either of us really enjoy the game knowing the other was fervently determined that our side must fail? Could I glance upon my house guest with a benevolent eye knowing he wished disaster upon the Arsenal defence? Would he not struggle to maintain his own sangfroid in the face of my similarly hostile attitude towards his team? We parted best of friends as ever we were, him debonair and elegant, me shambling and dishevelled, but the brief encounter had set me thinking.

Was it ever thus? Before the days of the internet and especially blogs like this and social media like twitter, were we quite so fractured so determinedly tribal? I don’t think so. I used to go to the boozer to watch the match whether it be against Man U, Spurs, Chelsea or whoever and mingle freely with supporters from those clubs both friends and complete strangers. There were good humoured exchanges, legs were pulled, piss was taken and we all had a few bevvies after the game, no harm no foul.

Nowadays I wouldn’t dream of watching a match in public for fear of meeting the wrong kind of Arsenal fans never mind supporters of the opposition. How people sit in The Emirates with morons abusing our players and booing the team is entirely beyond my failing imagination. Please don’t conclude for a moment that I didn’t care back in those halcyon days, that defeat didn’t eat my insides and that the sight of Man United beating us didn’t make me want to eat glass. If anything I was even worse after a defeat then than now. But this particular divisive factionalism didn’t exist. I recall going to a flat shared by two Spurs supporting mates to watch a league cup match between our two teams and we all had a great night. Even them. And of course they lost. But not any more. It seems we have become so split, so utterly divided and so closed to the naysayers or those we deem antithetical to our way of supporting that we’ve lost the genuine community which once held football fans together.

Or perhaps it’s just me.

I don’t think so though. When I look at all the different blogs and their varied viewpoints, and I’m restricting this to just Arsenal fan sites, I am reminded powerfully of the Monty Python film The Life Of Brian.

Brian: Excuse me. Are you the Judean People’s Front?

Reg: Fuck off! ‘Judean People’s Front’. We’re the People’s Front of Judea! ‘Judean People’s Front’.

Francis: Wankers.

And so on. Before long I shouldn’t be surprised if I end up like the Popular Front, sat on my own with everyone else yelling ‘splitter’ at me as I write a blog to myself which only I read. But until that day comes I shall write it for both you and me and we can huddle together in the comment section looking suspiciously over our shoulders.

The blog has been late coming today in an effort to match the lateness of the kick off. About two days late if you ask me. Bloody silly time to play a football match but I dare say we’ll cope. A lunch time kick off for some of you depending on the time zone but a workday too so a mixed blessing – what you gain on the swings and all that. Anyway back to Warren.

When we left him he was outside Jessops contemplating tonight’s fixture. He proclaimed himself very nervous about the game, and that was about a hundred and three hours before kick off. We’re a bloody strange bunch us football fans aren’t we? Why the apprehension? I enquired. Liverpool are a pretty good team, they’ve enjoyed a winning start to the season and haven’t conceded a goal in their first two games. I’d have thought he would be brimming with confidence. When I put this to him he just smiled and pointed out that he was nervous because Liverpool would be facing, in his words, a very good team.

It’s always interesting to discover how other people see us isn’t it? It’s why Bill Bryson’s Notes From A Small Island is such a compelling read for us Brits. Someone who has taken us to his bosom shines a light on our strange ways and makes us see ourselves from a different angle. Because my social circle has become so narrow in recent years and my football circle even narrower I didn’t realise that opposition teams and fans might not quite relish a trip to the Emirates. That sides as successful and free spending as Liverpool have been over the years might experience a frisson of self doubt when they see our name on the fixture list. It’s probably because there are so many defeatist, negative, weak willed, cowardly or just jaundiced Arsenal fans surrounding our little bastion of calm and common sense, all backed up and supported by an Arsenal hating media that I’ve come to assume the prevailing mood in the country is that we’re no good. Far from it.

I don’t know about you but I’m emboldened by the knowledge that, with the possible exception of Swansea, no one really looks forward to playing us and that’s probably because they know that on our day we can take anyone on and, potentially, take anyone apart. We just need to be on our day more often and that feeling will surely grow. When opposition teams tip over that invisible edge from knowing we’re a good side into assuming we’ll probably beat them then our work is half done. We’ve experienced this a few times in our past and I believe it’s time to get it back. Of course we will only do that by winning some games. We held on against Palace which is a start but it would be far more useful to end Liverpool’s solid start tonight, break poor Warren’s heart and enjoy the kind of solidarity across the Arsenal fan base which only a win against a top six rival can bring.

I think we can do it, heck, I know we can do it. Liverpool are a much better team than we often give them credit for and Brendan Rodgers has done a far better job than we like to admit, but we have a squad which blends invention and tenacity, youth and experience into what I believe can be the perfect balance. The engine didn’t start against West Ham and may not have run perfectly smoothly at Palace but it’s still a beautiful machine. In many ways it doesn’t feel as if the season has really started properly yet, tonight could be the perfect time to kick it off.