I always begin my match day blog with a quick glance at the official fixture list. Living in fear of writing an irreverent and irrelevant few hundred words in anticipation of a visit from Brighton and Hove Albion on the day the team are actually travelling to Scunthorpe is a heavy cross to bear. I was shocked when opening the appropriate page to count only three games remaining on the roster. The end seems to be rushing toward us with undue haste.

I have to be honest with you while I shall attempt to enjoy those last three fixtures just as much as the first one it will be nice not to think about football at all for a few short months. The negativity surrounding the club which is, as we all know, the result of many years of deliberate campaigning by those lovely people in the press and on the television, makes supporting Arsenal like swimming through sewage.

Even this positive blog is more often than not taken up with defending our position against the poor saps who have been engulfed into the swirling waters of despair and the numbers of genuinely positive posters here has dwindled to a mere handful. In short the fun has been sucked from what is supposed to be an enjoyable pastime. Bravo. Congratulations to all those who have made this possible.

It’s a shame because not only has this been a truly exciting and fascinating season with some famous victories and shock defeats and more silverware for the trophy cabinet but the end is still uncertain. There is still much to play for and something of a cup final in Manchester next Sunday as, in all probability, we duke it out with City for a third place finish. What Liverpool, Chelsea or Man United fans wouldn’t give to swap places with us. A shame that we aren’t in it for higher stakes but you can only play the cards in your hand.

To keep the pressure on City we need to overcome a Norwich side engaged in their own desperate end of term scrap. They’re level with Sunderland and a mere point above Newcastle and it seems likely that only one of these three will survive. So another highly motivated, physical side to overcome at the Emirates. Let’s us hope all the malcontents stay away from the stadium once again. The improvement in the atmosphere will make life so much easier for our players to get the job done.

I don’t anticipate it being an easy task today. Obdurate defending and counter attacking football will be the order of the day. Expect much talk along the lines of “We’re not moving the ball fast enough” or “The final pass is letting us down” or “We’re not working the keeper enough” as our silky approach play comes up against the massed ranks of a packed ten man defence. Actually my personal favourite is “Why can’t we beat sides who park the bus?” This is of course a huge steaming pile of bollocks. A silly statements and yet so often repeated. We usually do beat those sides because it is how most teams play us and we win most of our matches. Apologies to Shotta for straying into his statistical territory.

Norwich’s away form has not been impressive lately. They’ve won once and lost the rest of their last six games. We have only lost once at home in our previous half dozen matches and so if form is anything to go by at all then we have no reason to be fearful going into our teatime kick off. Form is of course an ever shifting, malleable intangible beast which can suddenly change up on you. This season more than ever those in the habit of predicting results have too often been stymied. Of more importance is what is at stake. Both sides have much to play for. I was going to say much to prove but it won’t matter to the howling degenerates in the press nor their devoted subjects what Arsenal do today as their narrative is set in stone.

It’s a shame. I used to love football. After the week I’ve had today’s match would have been something diverting. Something to which I could have looked forward with excitement and anticipation of a couple of hours of top class entertainment. Instead I’m here with my tin hat on in the bunker with the last handful of other loyalists fingering their suicide pills and listening as the artillery shells fall ever closer.

So let’s gather together and sing a song or two. The barbarians are at the gate and have laid waste much of our beautiful land. Enjoy watching a team consistently battling near the top of the table for however long we have left. When Arsène’s glorious reign is finally over the fall will be steep and painful. Prepare yourselves for battles for ninth place with West Brom and Liverpool, Stoke and Everton, for as it is written, the bleak shall surely inherit the earth.

A guest post from Muppet 

In 2004 Wenger walked on water. 12 years on obituaries are circulating on line, despite him still being in contract. At the time of writing, L’Equipe has just announced that a 3-year contract extension is planned, which will take him up to 2020. The mood amongst fans is largely negative. The Wenger Out protagonists, who had always been with us, from around 2007, are now enraged. More significantly, even some of the mainstream support, who love Wenger and respect him for what he has done, are now saying it is time for a change. Go now with dignity, they implore.

The straw that broke the camel’s back was the exit from the FA Cup. After the Watford game a fight broke out on Twitter, and apparently, outside the ground. The fight was really about the events leading up to the Watford result, surfacing like a volcano. The sorry statistic of amassing just 10 points from 9 games since January 2nd (played 20), when we were top with 42 points, to take us to 52 points (played 29). This was a collapse and seen as an opportunity lost in a season where Man U, City, and Chelsea have been poor, so inviting us and clubs traditionally with no chance, to land the title.  This was about stomach, and the expectation that we would fight – “Once more unto the breach dear friends”.  With 18 games to go, we simply didn’t or couldn’t. We instead showed relegation form.

The case is mounting against Wenger. Not just knee-jerk Wenger out sentiment, there is major mainstream criticism of Wenger for his failure to strengthen the squad last summer. The retention of Flamini and Arteta, the decision not to buy a single outfield player. The failure to sign a world class striker, and to anticipate injuries to Rosicky and Wilshere, who have a chequered history. Even if you argue that we have been affected by injuries this season, the counter argument is that we should have anticipated the injuries and brought in replacements. Some say that our squad was already big enough and should have done better even with the absence of Sanchez, Cazorla, Wilshere and Rosicky for long periods. These arguments point to the failure of a manager to make short term decisions and assemble a strong enough squad. The success of Leicester apparently blows a hole in the resource argument. A team assembled for under £50 million, now favourites for the league. If Leicester are doing it now, then why didn’t we during the last 10 years?  Managers are seen as being largely responsible for a club’s fortunes. Replace the manager if it is not working. We see this with Rodgers and the incumbent Klopp. The prevailing mood at Anfield apparently now much improved. And there are other managers who will do better. Simeone is a common suggestion. And these are managers who know how to deliver big blows to the super clubs like Bayern Munich and Real Madrid/Barcelona, whilst being at a club with lesser resources. Simeone, achieving this with a defensive style. Klopp, at Dortmund, playing heavy metal.

The problem with mounting a defence for Wenger, and the club, is that you become accused of being too defensive. And  dismissed  of having a red tinted narrative inconsistent with reality. And of downplaying our expectations. The backdrop of the stadium move and the relative success of the Wenger years from 1996 to 2005 has raised expectations such that the target is now the Premier League or Champions’ League, with probably the FA Cup or League Cup enough to stave off threats of the sack, and at least a top 3 finish.

If we agree that Flamini should have gone, Arteta too, then we should have been looking for 2 midfielders in the summer. A playmaker and a DM. Why then, didn’t they come? It was either because the manager misjudged the injury situation of Arteta, and over-estimated the remaining potential of Flamini, or there were issues in acquiring new players. Schneiderlin was supposedly available, he was seen as being ideal to solve one of the positions in the midfield. For whatever reason, AW thought otherwise. The reputed £24m fee and £5.2m salary which Manchester United paid may have had something to do with it, but I accept that we are now a well resourced club, and such sums are well within our reach. A popular criticism here is that Wenger’s unwillingness to pay market rates is killing us, and he is penny wise and pound foolish. But it might be that he simply thought Schneiderlin was the wrong fit. A player who was a box-to-box type, but no better than either Ramsey, Cazorla or Wilshere, and lacking the technical skill and deep play making ability of an Arteta. People can laugh at such a defence, but isn’t it the case that Wenger is under more pressure to take less risks with money than say, a manager of City or Man U. What if we spent £24m on a player who could neither be a deep laying playmaker, nor a superior box-to-box player than what we had?

Ok, but doesn’t this miss the point? Assuming that we were even looking for two tailor made replacements, a deep lying play maker, and a DM, isn’t it just rank incompetence that we didn’t find the replacements we were looking for? Whether we failed to scout them, or balked at the market rate, the accusation is of incompetence. Two players, popularly called upon to add to our midfield, are Geoffrey Kondogbia and William Carvalho. Put these two in midfield, we are told, and we have a title winning side.  But there is a track record of players who would supposedly strengthen our squad and win us the title, and solve all the defensive and other problems. A lot of these players remain today playing for mainly mid-table clubs or have disappeared into obscurity. M’vila, Felipe Melo, Christopher Samba, Mata, Marouane Fellaini, Julio Cesar, Luiz Gustavo, Brede Hangeland, Scott Dann, Lewis Holtby, Bernard, Joe Cole and Stevan Jovetic are all examples of players who sparked a fury amongst Arsenal fans when we failed to sign them. The point is, that to compete with the elite, you need to make elite signings, who are in short supply.  Too many fans are calling for signings of players who are simply not elite.

But there must be elite players who can improve us. Some maintain that if Napoli are demanding £60m+ for Higuain then just pay the money. We are not in the austerity period any more they say; we need to speculate to accumulate.  But this is the one argument that, for me, should be taken up with the clubs directors, and not Wenger;  if the objection is that the club is run as a profit driven model, and retaining those profits to the detriment of trophies. Of course, a lot still see Wenger as being all powerful, and hold him responsible for the lack of spending. Assuming that a new manager comes in, what is the plan? A change of style and more resources ? Some argue, an organisational coach like Koeman would be successful. But what is unclear is whether the budget would remain the same. Of course, the traditional anti-Wenger brigade blame the austerity on Wenger.  But even if you are wildly enthusiastic about a new manager wielding a cheque book, will that bring success? Van Gaal has spent £129 million net in two seasons. Chelsea and City will continue spending with impunity. The latter clubs are now backed up with very good coaches. But doesn’t recent evidence of other clubs’ spending show that even with spending a colossal amount of money, there is no absolute guarantee that one will win either the premiership or champions league? In fact, there is no absolute guarantee that one will finish top 4. City are having the best ever campaign in the Champions’ League, but had never gone, until recently, beyond the quarter finals. Liverpool, despite spending over £100 million net in 5 seasons, have only been top 4 once, finishing 6th, 8th, 7th, 2nd and 6th. Manchester United and Chelsea are currently not in the top 4.

With respect to the defence of the current campaign, in my humble opinion we have had a lack of balance since January, due to our ball playing midfielders being absent. This was reflected particularly in our performances at home. Too many unconverted chances saw us gain just 2 points against Swansea, Southampton and Crystal Palace. In my view there has been a lack of analysis about the reasons why our form has been so poor at home. At home, teams sit back and they counter attack. To break them down, we normally rely on continuity players who are able to ping the ball around in the final 3^rd. I believe the absence of Cazorla, Rosicky and Wilshere has been significant in this respect. In their place was Ramsey, Flamini, Coquelin and more recently El Nenny.  We have still been able to dominate games, and have created chances, but I would argue that had we had the former three midfielders, we would have had more gilt-edged chances and opened up the opposition a lot more. Many of the chances created at home after January have been half chances that we have failed to convert.

We have still had moments this season that has proved our quality. We have beaten Bayern Munich at home, Leicester, Manchester City and Manchester United. But the crux for the mainstream support who have departed from Wenger is the cycle of injury problems, and the refusal to change transfer direction. They are not convinced that these problems can be solved by Wenger, because they should have been by now.

With respect to injuries, a report by the Independent shows that AFC had 37 separate injuries in total, ranking 7^th overall.  Crucially Leicester had the fewest injuries, having just 18.

http://www.independent.co.uk/sport/football/premier-league/leicester-have-been-the-luckiest-team-with-injuries-this-season-a6999741.html

There is a big correlation as well between teams that win the league and the consistency of the same 11 that is put out. Leicester is evidence of this, which is of course a reflection of the lack of injuries to its squad.

On the one hand, it can be argued that we should have done better in terms of our league position, as our injury total was probably not as bad as in recent seasons. This shows that Shad Forsyth must be doing some good work.

On the other hand, I would still point to the  midfield, and say that it has been severely depleted, which has affected the balance of the team. I think this is a crucial point, because right now, on social media, on the blogs, there are a number of fans who believe that there is a confluence in the current run of form, and the stale football, and what they see as the end of Wenger’s reign. They see the current loss of form as one of a number of cycles that have taken place over the last 12 years, and therefore removing the manager is the solution. On this point I vehemently disagree. I believe, strongly, that, if we had more of a midfield balance, we still may not have won league, but we wouldn’t have had the negativity surrounding some of the performances, and could have finished higher.

I find it very difficult to believe that Wenger of all people can be accused not knowing the way forward, in terms of playing attacking football. In previous years, the accusation was always the complete reverse,  that we were too gung-ho, and the defence needed attention.

For years, fans lamented the absence of a world class goalkeeper and a defensive midfielder.

Ironically now, with Cech, Coquelin and Elneny, fans are now lamenting what they see as the absence of a striker, but forgetting that previous concerns were addressed.

Good morning Positivistas,

Not quite the match review that I anticipated writing, with three points safely loaded onto the bus and resumption of third place in the Premier League, but instead the sharing of the spoils with our feline friends from Wearside. It is as it is. The home side and their supporters understandably delighted ( see above).

Like the manager said Arsenal had a good first half, plenty of inventive, speedy play which left Sunlun a bit dizzy, but we did not translate out dominance on the pitch to goals. Inevitably, having survived the storm, the home side gained some confidence after half time and came back into the contest. We knew they would be a nut that needed cracking. For a few minutes toward the end it was us clinging on and me feeling a bit dizzy as Jermain Defoe peppered the Arsenal goal with some very decent finishing. He is now 33 years old and the man can still cause defences a quiver with the ball at his feet. ( I know a nasty moment for all of us when that lob arced over Cech and toward the empty goal). Were we struck down with a collective tiredness after Thursday during that phase when we could have lost the game? It seems doubtful as going into the final few minutes of the game we were strong and on the front foot. Concentration went though, for sure.

If I cannot gurgle about the result then what of the Arsenal players ? As I said yesterday another impressive display from Elneny who worked hard all afternoon and was intelligent in his use of the ball. A total of 87 passes and a 94.3% success rate from the hairy Egyptian according to the men with pointy heads, and our most impressive performer on the day. Petr Cech was also crucial in the second half, where for five minutes Sunlun had transformed themselves into a fearsome attacking force, with the Czech fighting them off almost single handed. Having had an opportunity to reflect over night on the game I also have to say the full backs both put in decent display, and Alex Iwobi also had an excellent first half. And Jack of course ………Welcome home son. Just ten minutes but ten good minutes.

To leave the Stadium of Light with just a point is therefore less than I hoped for, to have that point is however the least we earned. A set back then but no severe injury.

I look onward, as we all must, toward Norwich and Saturday late afternoon. I shall be there. A useful fixture that, subject to victory, would bring us three points ahead of Citeh, who have a tricky game at St Mary’s on Sunday, and eight points ahead of the red Mancs who entertain the Champions elect at Trafford Park, again on Sunday. The red Mancs have game(s) in hand but eight points and a ++goal difference gap is a hell of a gulf this late in the year.

I have no idea if Arsene will go with Danny or Olivier up front on Saturday, or maybe both or neither, as scoring goals is the rock on which our PL and FA Cup prospects were sunk since January. What is galling is the apparent ease with which other clubs seems to rattle in 3-4 goals. It’s Norwich though – come on.

Even more important than cementing CL football next season Shotta is in town for the game. We shall have to ensure he enjoys his weekend at the finest football ground in the world and watching our team.

I therefore usher you gently into the new week. Work hard.

Nga-to delek Positivistas,

Football on a Thursday night eh ? I admit I have had a little chortle about the neighbours seasonal outings to Kazakhstan on a Thursday as they negotiate the rounds of the Europa League. How could I resist ? However I would happily pay the price of a game on the oddest day of the week if it meant a few more fluid and dominant performances as we were treated to last night.

We “dominated” – simple as that. My concerns about Hector being tired were shown within a few minutes to be nonsense as he set about the Baggies’ defence with the relish of a young samurai trying out his new 21^st birthday sword. I had also raised a question as to whether Alex Iwobi might have sat out last night’s game as he too has played a lot of football in consecutive games for a 19 year old. Wrong again on my part. The young player showed last night that he is not some experiment that Arsene is dabbling in but Iwobi is a genuine “permanent” member of the first team whose creative spark is relied on. He gives us a slightly different spark. The question for Arsene is how, with Iwobi blooming, Ozil undroppable, Santi due back, Aaron to fit in, Elneny much more than a defensive shield, and young Jack nearly fit how the midfield jigsaw will be put together ?

Having savoured the golden treacle of our performance against Albion we also had the slightly rarer pleasure of enjoying the correct result, the important three points safely bagged and a steady pace back into third place in the PL completed. I do not want to play in the Champions League qualifiers. Let Citeh and their new manager have a little sweat on that one in a busy August (or Manyoo and their new manager). After recent home games when Arsenal have played all the football, made the ball our own and peppered the opposition goal with shot after header after shot, only to end up with a draw or worse, it was welcome.

Of the opposition they were woeful, probably the worst side to come to the Ems this season. They set up for a 0-0 draw with effectively seven defenders/defensive midfield players, then could do nothing when they found themselves opened up by Alexis before seven minutes had passed. Foster’s keeping was on the edge of calamity on night, the second goal was a defensive shambles, his ‘face’ saved him further embarrassment. I heard a statistic on the TV last night something along the lines of “WBA have only managed seven shots on goal in their past eight away games in the PL”. With that on-the-road horror to endure is it any wonder that they managed to shift only 900 of their 3,000 ticket allocation ? 38 games of Pulisball is a steep price to pay for Premier League survival. As with the Stoke fans eventually the Hawthorns faithful will begin to yearn for something creative and entertaining rather than the robotic dross on display from the visitors.

From last night’s firm foundation we set off for the Stadium of Light on Sunday lunchtime in good heart. No doubt Fat Sam will be roaring at his boys to get stuck in. They have nothing else to give so it will have to be a maximum infusion of blood and bone from a Sunlun side wriggling with the noose of relegation, yet again. Deano with the whistle so I am sure we can expect fireworks from Tranmere’s finest.

Enjoy your Friday, but don’t go mad !

• picture from the Irish Times today

Good morning Positivistas,

I trust this Monday morning finds you bouncing happily into the new week, seven days of opportunity with Spring emerging all around us. I feel quite chipper myself, as you can probably tell.

I had a good day out yesterday. Good company, good weather, good food, good football, even the railway functioned for once to the specification set out in the schedule, so there was very little to lower my mood.

Of the game itself we dominated, scored once and should have scored more. Very nice goal by the way, clever from Danny and Alexis, a real ‘pick-the-lock’ strike. We did not however trouble the scorer again and a speculative shot from Bolassie in the 79^th transformed a decent performance against a solid Palace side into the draw. As we know any Arsenal result, W, L or D, has the nutcases of both wings of the social media civil war reaching for their expletives and last night did not disappoint in that regard. Twitter hummed with indignation, the Scarfists howled with righteous fury. Was it ever thus ?

I thought we played well. I was particularly impressed with my current favourite player Mo Elneny who has slotted in beautifully in the box to box midfielder role. Even in the few weeks he has been in first team action his tackling is more crisper and his positional sense better. There is no evidence I have seen that Mo succumbs to the traditional complaint of players who join from Euro clubs that they struggle with the intensity of the EPL game or to last 90 minutes. Irrespective of which players return to fitness over the next few days I think Arsene will be reluctant to take our Egyptian out of the firing line.

Elsewhere on the pitch I would be hard pushed to pick out any outstanding performer for AFC, or to identify anyone who had a noticeably poor day. Everyone was 6 or 7/10. My impression on a few occasions yesterday was that our possession game worked well to the edge of the Palace box. We passed round the visitors, the players used their speed and guile to get us into the area in which their goal could be put under threat …………………………… But then we sort of “stopped”, took a breath, hesitated, checked our progress, I don’t quite know how to describe it, but in that half second the momentum of the move expired. The next ball was never quite the right one, the pass went astray, a defender got their head in the way etc. We seemed to lack confidence to press with no break in the fluidity of our movement. I would be interested if the ProZone monitoring and stats can pick that kind of subtle change (or whether it is just in my head) ?

I thought Hector looked tired and in need of a rest. He was not running with the ball as he has been, and his crossing radar was awry. I thought Olivier looked frustrated to not get on earlier and he certainly looked busy in the 20 minutes he had. I expect at least those two to change on Thursday. And will Aaron step in for Alex Iwobi against the Baggies ?

And last but not L’East even Roger, not one of the PL’s finest in my view, had a good game. I know, I know, it is an addiction on my part.

Palace celebrated at the end the point that I suspect makes it mathematically impossible for them to drop. In fact they did OK, “disciplined” is the best word. I was impressed with Zaha and his final 20 minute contribution. I would like to see that sort of contribution from Theo and/or Joel. I am not quite sure why Theo is first choice over the Costa Rican at the moment from the bench.

Onwards to West Bromwich Albion and a Thursday game – Thursday! – most odd. Another club with no real requirement to turn in a good performance at the Ems but Pulis is a professional and he will send a side out to compete.

Now get out there and give Monday hell.

* and thank you to Ian/Gf60 for the extraordinary picture today !