Positively Arsenal

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Arsenal vs Chelsea – A Bridge Too Far?

Posted by pedantic George @arseblagger on September 17, 2017 in All Posts

The last time Arsenal beat Chelsea at Stamford Bridge was over 5 years

ago. That was a looong time ago.

So it’s no surprise that this, along with Arsenal rather dismal record

vs top 6 opposition last season, is the leading narrative used in the

media space building up to the game, while adding a bit of a twist to

the David and Goliath story, where David, who ran out of gummyberry

juice, is now left in total “shambles”… at Goliath’s mercy.

Fair enough! Going to the Bridge, or rather, leaving the Bridge hasn’t

exactly been a joyous exercise these last few years, not even with the

world-class talents of Mesut Özil and Alexis Sánchez in our ranks. But

then again, the Chelsea teams of then have been bus parkers

extraordinaire, their primary form of attack being the counter, and

with great success compared to the low-budget forces from elsewhere.

This Antonio Conte outfit however is different, he wants his team

playing the good stuff, and that suits our style better.

So last season vs top 6 opposition aside and looking at Chelsea in

isolation; the last 12 months we played them 4 times, beating them on

3 of those occasions. Granted none of those games won were at

Chelsea’s spiritual home, but it was recent and it should tell us that

there’s no need to be apprehensive about these pricks.

Arsenal players know they can beat Chelsea, Chelsea players are aware

our players know they can beat them. Stamford Bridge? Meh! We just

need to play to our potential.

We now also have Saed Kolašinac, an absolute beast that just wanna run

through players and with a left boot Podolski would be proud of, and

Alexandre Lacazette that looks extremely calm in front of goal.

With me touching on the last 5 years, and a little bit on the last 12

months, what does the last month tell me leading up to today’s

fixture:

Chelsea started their PL campaign in embarrassing fashion vs Burnley,

since then it look like they have pulled themselves together. Our

moment of embarrassment came at Anfield, so hopefully that was when

our lightbulb went on.

Following the international break Chelsea beat Leicester 2-1 in a

close contest, of cause with the help of a ref and lino, allowing a

Morata off-side goal, then their first team (scared much) wiped out

Azerbaijani giants, Qarabag. We beat Bournemouth pretty convincingly,

with a wonderful display of Wenger-ball, then comfortably in the end

dispose of Köln with an experimental team short of match fitness. So

we go into this game fairly even, the one advantage Chelsea could have

though is that they, well, have home advantage. But as I said; meh!

Make no mistake though, Chelsea might be suffering a fall from grace

in punditry circles as they are now only seen as the team-elect to

“put pressure on” – ahem, Spurs busy with some voodoo or whatever –

after they sold Matic to a rival to finance a replacement for a player

that is still part of their squad… they can be very destructive on

their day.

Team selection: I think with Oxlade now gone, and hopefully putting a

curse on Liverpool, selecting a matchday 11 became a bit easier for

Arsène Wenger, as it’s one less of those pamper type players. Leaving

Bellerín and Kolašinac first choice wing backs on their respective

sides and the rest pretty much selecting themselves if available.

A spot of bother could be Mesut Özil. Unconfirmed news going around is

that he could sit out today due to injury. I would like to think that

the manager will leave the decision up the last minutes with fixture

difficulty easing a bit over the next 4 weeks. If he can’t play, Mo

Elneny look very sharp on Thursday and had a near perfect successful

pass rate. He’s not a flamboyant player, but he does do the basics

right, even in games we seem to struggle. So he could have dibs coming

in for the German, with either Ramsey or Xhaka possibly making a

positional switch to compensate.

Here’s the selection conundrum…

Arsène’s one headache though could be whether to Alexis Sánchez or not

to Alexis Sánchez.

Welbeck might not be everybody’s cup of tea but he is a team player

first and thus vital in the application of the manager’s tactics. This

is the one area I feel a tough decision need to be made, because

Chelsea will exploit a not fully match fit yet Alexis Sánchez’s

weakness. It’s one thing carelessly giving away possession when we are

on the front foot vs sub-standard opposition, another doing so vs a

team filled with truly world-class attacking players.

In media circles they say Arsenal is only one defeat away from a

“crisis”, I say Arsenal is always one big victory away from going on

good run. Playing as “a team” today will be key.

“Alles van die beste” to all going to the Bridge and those watching

the game at home/pub today.

Let’s keep hope alive, because it’s the hope man, it’s the hope…

A guest post form @Labo_Goon

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56 Comments

That Was A Riot.

Posted by pedantic George @arseblagger on September 15, 2017 in All Posts

Good afternoon Positive Arsenal fans,

I did not expect to be writing the post match commentary on the Cologne game as I was travelling to the US and, having taken off at 6.00 pm by 8.00ish I was very long way West of Ireland, quite a long way South east of Greenland. According to the polite chap from American Airlines we are at 34,000 feet (and he knows).

No1 son however was fiddling with the seatback entertainment console and lo and behold …. what pops up ? Lucky kick off was delayed.

Global game eh – there is no escape, no release from the Arsenal – even when the air is thin outside the game will get through.

Admittedly I’d missed the first half hour and other than the gruesome replay of David’s little difficulty I saw nothing else. A decent line up, enough good players to do the job. Good to see Sanchez and Giroud starting.

That final fifteen first half minutes was ok, a little reminiscent of our Britannia trip. Good to the edge of the box but solid defence and a lack of sharpness/guile took us no further. Midfield of Elneny and Iwobi not used to working together produced a lot of effort but not much creative output.

Second half kicking off so I will be back from time to time, optimistic we shall trouble the scorer…….

Get the F*** in you beautiful Bosnian – he really is very good.

This is more like it, let’s concentrate though lads – no silly second for the visitors. Enjoying Hector Bellerin tonight.

Cometh the hour cometh the Chilean assassin – super strike – and that is why I think he is a man to keep.

Just crossed the Newfoundland coast. Jack bright, surely the 3rd is within our grasp?

And Hector obliges, first to the block and a good finish, intelligent dummy from Jack. I think that is the Germans done for.

A harder game than I expected but credit to Cologne. From the hour I saw Elneny can be pleased with himself and his push for first team action. Sanchez is looking fit and dynamic again( ed. I hope he was joking?)

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Arsenal vs FC Köln .

Posted by pedantic George @arseblagger on September 14, 2017 in All Posts

Per_Mertesacker_2662132b

I’m here again with my deep insight into team selection and tactics. I hope you all appreciate it and learn.

Tonight we play the strongest German team in the Bundesliga. Its clear they are as they are holding up everyone else. In other words they are bottom of the league. On the face of it this should be a straightforward game. A sure recipe for disaster.

Its an impossible task to predict the team but none the less, I’ll have a go.

Ospina will play in goal.

Three centre backs will play, two of them won’t be Koscielny (rested) and Chambers (injured). I suspect Per will start, and I hope he does.

Goodness knows who will play at wingback, I suspect it might be our first choices of Bellerin and Superman(sorry I mean Kolasinac)

Our midfield two will most likely be Elneny and perhaps Jack. Although I’m not convinced Arsene will want to start with Jack just yet, so perhaps Maitland-Niles. It certainly won’t be Rambo, who is excused boots along with Ozil.

Of the front three the only one I’m confident will start is Giroud. Sanchez I think will and also Iwobi.

So that’s my best shot at being Mystic George.

Lets hope for a good game in a good atmosphere giving us a good win.

I’m looking forward to it, a little light relief before the trials of Chelsea come Sunday.

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73 Comments

Arsenal vs Human Stupidity – The Bournemouth Experience

Posted by shotta_gooner on September 12, 2017 in All Posts

Einstein universe and stupidity

So two weeks after an embarrassing loss to Liverpool, Arsenal has a complete turnaround vs Bournemouth, demolishing them 3:0, toying with the Cherries for long periods. You would expect from mainstream media and Arsenal bloggers-tweeters-podcasters unreserved appreciation for the manager and the team for putting the ignominy of Liverpool behind them. After all prior to the game, they were universal in stressing the importance of this fixture:

Blogger #1:

It’s clear what we need to do: win.

Blogger #2:

The reality is that today is a match we’re expected to win. Bournemouth, just two places below us, are sacrificial lambs, even though I’d expect them to be obdurate. Not agriculturally like a Pulis or Allardyce side but well-organised as they have been since joining the top flight.

Blogger #3:

Didn’t even do a pre-game review spending the days prior to in an orgy of self-congratulatory pieces stressing the importance of his opinion.

Not surprisingly, like Charlie Brown in the long running comic strip Peanuts, the manager and the players must have felt perplexed with little gratitude shown for matching or exceeding expectations set for them by those so-called supporters.

Blogger #1:

The players will know that it was bread and butter stuff though. If this was getting back on the horse after falling off at Anfield, it was a Shetland Pony.

Blogger #2:

It was half-decent preparation for next weekend’s trip to Chelsea but let’s not go overboard in proclaiming we’re on the rise again. That was one good performance in a match we were expected to win.

Blogger #3:

Don’t get me wrong, it was a lovely performance, but the big test is at Chelsea next week. For all the fun of our game today, it has to be said, Bournemouth were appalling.

The mainstream media were just as reluctant to shell out any praises.

ESPN:

The Gunners had lost to both Stoke and Liverpool heading into the international break but they were never in trouble here as Welbeck inspired them to a 3-0 win against a poor Cherries side.

BBC:

The home fans needed a performance and were treated to a clinical one as the Gunners cruised against a poor Bournemouth side.

Daily Mail:

At the moment Arsenal feel like one bad result away from chaos every match.

Now most of my readers would immediately dismiss this as the usual anti-Arsene, anti-Arsenal whingeing by mainstream and social media, trying as usual to make light of any Arsenal success. My aim in today’s blog is to argue there is more at play at here. What we are witnessing is a demonstration of stupidity as outlined by professor Carlo Cipolla, an Italian economist who while at the University Of California, Berkley identified The Basic Laws of Human Stupidity.

Before I progress, let me first get this out of the way; not all Arsenal fans are stupid. But, to be sure, there are a lot of stupid fans who “support” Arsenal Football Club.

In Cipolla’s analysis stupid people are seen as a group, more powerful by far than major organizations such as the Mafia and the military industrial complex, which without regulations, leaders or manifesto nonetheless manages to operate to great effect and with incredible coordination.

Are there any groups more uncoordinated than mainstream football journalists, pundits, Arsenal bloggers-podcasters-tweeters-and supporters group, many of whom claim to support Arsenal and who function at complete distance from each other but are completely united by the most outrageously stupid ideas?

Every quotation above is uniform in discounting how important it was to not only win, but win so comprehensively. Despite their diversity these groups act in total conformity with Cipolla’s model, i.e. they are uniform in their stupidity.

Contrast this with the very experienced Petr Cech who expressed in his post game presser, that this was an enormous result:

‘I’m happy with the response but I hope it’s the last time we have to do that because I hope from now on we actually play at this level in every game because in this league if you are a fraction off the level then you can get easily beaten like we were at Liverpool.’

Clearly the result was inconsistent with social and mainstream media’s ad nauseam dooming and gloom for the past 8-9 years and predictions of Wenger’s imminent Waterloo, which as Mark Twain would have observed is more than premature. So they continue to make stupid statements and promote stupid behavior which is clearly inimical to the success for the club they claim to desire.

They give truth to Cipolla’s five fundamental laws of stupidity:

Always and inevitably everyone underestimates the number of stupid individuals in circulation.

Some may argue the number of stupid Arsenal supporters are not that many based on the failure of the extremists to mount a decent-sized crowd in any of their demonstrations which up to now, at best, have seen a few score with bedsheets and A-4 paper. But if one notes the hundreds of thousands who support certain bloggers via Facebook and twitter showing their apparent sympathy for their consistently stupid point of view then Cipolla’s thesis runs true.

The probability that a certain person (will) be stupid is independent of any other characteristic of that person.

Most of these journos, pundits, Arsenal-bloggers, tweeters and podcasters are eminently “handshakeable” people. Some are from the professions, many have advanced degrees and diplomas from eminent institutions and others are self-made. Yet many are singularly united in their stupidity, at least when it comes to the football club.

A stupid person is a person who causes losses to another person or to a group of persons while himself deriving no gain and even possibly incurring losses.

You have to wonder what these bloggers, podcaster and tweeters gain in doing everything to damage their club despite it being the 3^rd most successful in the Premier League over the past 21 years while being massively outspent by three other clubs, two of whom enjoy almost limitless sources of external funding. You would think they have more to gain commercially and reputation-wise if the club overcomes the odds to win the PL. Even then 3 FA cups out of the last 4 would be something to brag about and a base for further success.

Non-stupid people always underestimate the damaging power of stupid individuals. In particular non-stupid people constantly forget that at all times and places and under any circumstances to deal and/or associate with stupid people always turns out to be a costly mistake.

When we closed the door to all and sundry at Positively Arsenal it was based on our experience of how stupid people can easily takeover a blog so long as the blogger is willing to deal and/or associate with stupid people. I would argue that Cipolla’s law completely vindicates our decision.

Cipolla concluded: A stupid person is the most dangerous type of person.

Consider for a moment if the Arsenal board, particularly the owner had given in to the uniform stupidity of the mainstream media and Arsenal’s uber bloggers-tweeters-podcasters. If the owner had given in to stupid people inside and outside the directorate, the club could have easily lost its most important asset of the past 21 years. Apparently it was touch and go right down to that fateful meeting last May between Kroenke and Wenger. Now we know Arsenal’s loss would have been PSG’s gain and Real Madrid’s before that and Bayern Munich at some point, all of them willing to snap up Wenger before the ink was dry on his goodbye letter.

Yet we have an eminent blogger declaring that as of August 31^st:

“The current ‘team’, consisting of Wenger, Gazidis and Dick Law, is not big enough, decisive enough, or well-connected enough to cope with the modern transfer market.”

Well f*ck my old boots. Over 100 years combined experience at the top-top level, having outsmarted every greedy agent, selling club and 3rd party owner on the planet has been reduced to one outrageous sentence. Isn’t this the definition why stupid people are so dangerous?

This is the level of low denominator stupidity that our various media set itself as it guarantees revenue via buying of newspapers, clicks online and viewership on tv. But don’t expect them to publicize Cipolla’s findings even though they have been around since 1956. Should his laws gain currency all of them would be out of business sooner or later.

Tags: Arsenal, Arsene Wenger, bloggers, bournemouth, Cipolla, Laws of Human Stupidity, Podcasters, Stupidity, Tweeters Permalink

44 Comments

Arsenal – Early Autumn Blossom

Posted by anicoll5 on September 10, 2017 in All Posts

Good morning Positives,

A stylish victory brought fans, and it may be a few players, back to footballing life after the international break and the trough of our preceding result.

We played high speed football, with passing accurate and our players’ movement crisp. Our two Summer signings Lacazette and Sead stood out all afternoon. Ozil performed immaculately, Ramsey and Xhaka raced back and forth, all industry and nicking the ball first. And Danny Welbeck eh ? If ever a player deserved a wave of the wand of luck, as I’d say Danny had by being served a tricky but scoreable chance in the 6^th minute. The stadium erupted. If Welbeck’s first strike had a whiff of fortune his second was a controlled finish, bottom corner, no chance for Begovic. And Alexandre’s goal in the 27^th, or was it the 28^th, minute ?

As AW on Danny said;

“Yep, I’m pleased with his performance, I kept faith in him and overall I think he is getting stronger and stronger and more confident. Confidence plays a big part in his game and I loved his finishing on his second goal.”

“Kept faith in him”. It was Welbeck’s day. Nice snap from the Daily Mail today at the top to celebrate.

Defensively ? Arsene stuck with his three formation, and my view for what it is worth is that Kosc, Musatfi and Nacho are our best 3. Kosc made just one tackle yesterday and Petr Cech just one save, just one.

And Giroud and Sanchez for that final 15 minutes – they looked HUNGRY.

No controversies, did anyone notice the referee ?

We were much too good for Bournemouth, simple as that.

Of our visitors they did not seem the same ‘together’ team that turned up last season and put up such a battle at the Ems, and then gave us an even worse fright with the 3-3 evening on the South coast. Third season syndrome ? Eddie Howe has spent a lot of cash but his probably more talented players do not have the same organisation as his earlier group. Swift action needed.

We have an interesting week ahead. Our first Europa League game ever and our first game in a second tier Euro completion since Galatasaray in May 2000. I see the stadium is sold out. It should be a good night. You will be pleased to know that Cologne suffered a sound 3-0 drubbing in the Bundesliga by Augsburg yesterday, the hat-trick of goals scored by a player well known to England fans Alfred Finnbogasson (shudders). Our German opponents sit firmly bottom of their league with 0 points from three games. I trust we’ll not take them lightly. Even so …….

I shall not be with you on Thursday as during the game I shall be high over the Atlantic. The Chelsea game however I shall watch somewhere in NYC and, technology permitting, get straight back to you!

Enjoy your week.

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86 Comments

Arsenal vs Bournemouth Has Become A Huge Game

Posted by pedantic George @arseblagger on September 9, 2017 in All Posts

Good morning all you positives.

We go into today’s game with me not having a clue what team will play, what players will play and what shape we will adopt. So anyone hoping for the least little bit of insight can stop reading now.

For a while it looked like we had jumped on the “3 at the back” bandwagon permanently. Now it seems less sure. I’ve noticed that when Arsene wants the team to buck up, he makes a change to the tried and tested 4 across. The 3 seemed to play to the strengths of Xhaka and Ramsey, but recent results, and performances, have not give much confidence that it was more than a fleeting glimpse of a working partnership. The problem is that those two don’t seem to work too well in a 4 2 3 1 either.However they are both top class and I really can’t imagine a best 11 without either of them in it.

So what to do?

Go 4 3 3 and introduce Francis? It would make us stronger in the middle and offer more protection to a 4 at the back, but leaves us shoehorning the 3 (who I suspect will be first choice) of Lacazette, Alexis and Ozil ,into the front 3, meaning Ozil will be asked to play wide right.

So all in all, just about anything could happen. But whatever happens, it really has to work. Another bad result, with Chelsea away, up next, will see a meltdown not seen since Pompeii.

However often we tell ourselves that its a minority of fans that are against Arsene, the board, the team and Doris the tea lady, there are definitely enough to put the cat among the pigeons if the worst, or anything near the worst, happens this afternoon.

Make no mistake, it may only be game 4, and it may only be Bournemouth at our gaff, but this game is huge.

Lets just hope all goes well, otherwise I’m building a bomb shelter.

P.S. I’m sure it will.

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131 Comments

Arsenal Annihilates The Agents & Speculators In The Window

Posted by shotta_gooner on September 6, 2017 in All Posts

The-Wolf-of-Wall-Street

Contrary to all the nonsense we have been fed by the mainstream media and by Arsenal’s uber bloggers, tweeters and podcasters, the recent transfer window was an unquestionable victory for Arsenal Football Club over the agents and speculators who literally have the Premier League by the bollocks.

One well-known Arsenal blogger described it as “shambolic” literally calling out the manager, CEO and owner as incompetent. This is a man who has never managed a professional football club in his life much less an outfit that has a turnover of over £300 million pounds+ annually. Yet he has the temerity to scold the owner who is a billionaire in his own right and not merely from owning sports franchises.

Where has modesty gone to? How about being reserved and conditional in your criticism of professionals in a business you have absolutely no expertise? Can you imagine a general practitioner criticizing a specialist much less a patient who has written a few blogs on alternative medicine? Words fail me.

Yet his cohorts, like obedient “Pavlovian” dogs, simply ran with the same message, only to a slightly a different tune. Yes, he is entitled to his opinion, but how long can he and the gang maintain credibility when they are repeatedly proven to be wrong. “End of an era” anyone?

In today’s blog I will demonstrate their analysis is flawed and so are their conclusions. Let us get back to basics. Arsenal Football Club has never relied on making transfers to become successful. This is exemplified by a 1925 advertisement for the position of football manager, that is nearly 100 years ago:

“Arsenal Football Club is open to receive applications for the position of TEAM MANAGER. He must be experienced and possess the highest qualifications for the post, both as to ability and personal character. Gentlemen whose sole ability to build up a good side depends on the payment of heavy and exhorbitant transfer fees need not apply.”

Every subsequent manager has publicly admitted that this is a fundamental policy of the club even despite years of lagging behind their more spendthrift rivals. The Arsene Wenger era has been no different. The current manager has consistently exceeded his top-4 rivals for the lowest net transfer spend vs league position. This is despite the explosion in transfer spending since the arrival of Roman Abramovich at Chelsea who according to David Dein “’parked Russian tanks on our lawn, firing £50 notes at us.”

This transfer window was no different and despite the honeyed pleas of agents and their mouthpieces in the media, including bloggers and so called legends of the club, Arsenal stood firm and refused to be fleeced by the parasites hanging unto professional football in general and the PL in particular.

We start from the known fact that markets are used for profit extraction. Any professional in the stock market or its facsimile use the selling of inventory as a method of deriving profits from buyers. Similarly the transfer window is an opportunity for selling clubs, and increasingly for agents and 3rd party owners, to extract profit from willing buyers for players they have a tradable interest. Money is flowing into the market from tv rights and from sugar daddy owners. Many clubs are compelled, often by subjective reasons, to use these cash inflows to acquire new players. The Qataris, for example, given their current economic and political confrontation with the Saudis and other Gulf States, are known to have an interest in raising their pr profile internationally. No wonder they were willing to make a big splash by funding the unprecedented $200 million acquisition by PSG of Neymar from Barcelona. The fact that last season PSG was 2nd in Ligue Une and made the last 8 of the champion’s league would suggest a club far from being uncompetitive. Up to the recent past, conventional wisdom would be they need only one or two modestly priced additions to guarantee an improvement in their standing.

Transfermarkt.co.uk provides sufficient data to indicate how much profit is being derived from the underlying value of the players. I focused on the top 100 transfers (ranked either by value or transfer value) at the end of the window. Not surprisingly, given the massive amounts of money sloshing around, the premier league was at the top in Europe for profit extraction.

Profit Extraction from Top 100 Transfers

No Traded	Market value	Moving to Lge	Transfer fee	Profit (£millions)	Profit (%)
38	720.45	Premier League	1,075.68	355.23	49%
7	191.25	Ligue 1	288.90	97.65	51%
11	217.80	La Liga	264.60	46.80	21%
15	229.50	Bundesliga	258.30	28.80	13%
2	13.50	Championship	31.50	18.00	133%
2	18.00	Rusian Premier League	35.10	17.10	95%
1	18.00	Chinese Super League	31.23	13.23	74%
2	26.10	Portugese Liga Nos	18.00	-8.10	-31%
1	14.40	Turkish Süper Lig	3.15	-11.25	-78%
21	370.80	Serie A	338.58	-32.22	-9%
100	1,819.80		2,345.04	525.24	29%

From a market value of £720.45 million in players traded, selling clubs in combination with agents and other 3^rd parties were able to extract £355.23 million in nominal profits from the premier league, nearly 50% return. Which other legitimate market in Britain is generating such a handsome return to traders? No wonder the Raiolas and Mendezes have taken permanent occupation of clubs like United, City and Chelsea who are splashing the cash. Forget the fairytale that the profits generated will circulate and multiply among the lower leagues.

Unlike the English premiership, all other leagues generate substantially less profits for traders. Ligue 1 appears second but this was distorted by the Neymar transfer which generated £109 million in surplus to Barcelona. If it wasn’t for this transaction the French market would have been a negative proposition for selling clubs.

What is most disconcerting is that the top two European leagues in terms of champion’s league dominance, La Liga and the Bundesliga, are not pissing away football money by doing deals way in excess of market value of players traded. Profits were £46.80 and £28.80 respectively. Note how the Germans, the wealthiest country in Europe, are quite stingy, yielding a mere £28.80 million or 13% rate of profit on players traded.

Unlike the Germans, with their sane, sensible approach to transfers, English clubs are pissing away money left, right and center with one notable exception, Arsenal FC.

Profit Extraction from Premier League Clubs

Club	No Traded	Market value	Transfer fee	Profit (£millions)	Profit (%)
Man City	5	126.00	205.65	79.65	63%
Chelsea	5	105.75	182.61	76.86	73%
Everton	4	68.4	120.06	51.66	76%
Man United	3	105.30	147.96	42.66	41%
Spurs	3	41.40	72.09	30.69	74%
Liverpool	2	51.3	72.00	20.70	40%
Southampton	2	17.55	30.06	12.51	71%
Crystal Palace	1	13.5	25.38	11.88	88%
Leicester	1	13.5	24.93	11.43	85%
Stoke	1	6.30	17.46	11.16	177%
Bournemouth	1	10.80	20.52	9.72	90%
Burnley	1	5.40	14.76	9.36	173%
West Ham	2	29.70	36.09	6.39	22%
Watford	1	13.50	18.36	4.86	36%
Arsenal	1	45.00	47.70	2.70	6%
Swansea	3	38.25	26.37	-11.88	-31%
West Brom	2	28.80	13.68	-15.12	-53%
	38	720.45	1,075.68	355.23

Not surprisingly, the two sugar-daddy clubs, City and Chelsea are #1 and #2 in handing over substantial profits to selling clubs. Note these figures are for only the top 100 transfers in the window. It is likely that further down the line they and others in the premier league are giving away big money for low value players.

It is striking that the traditional clubs, which compete annually with Arsenal for a position in the top-6 (Chelsea, City, Everton, United, Spurs and Liverpool) have no reservation in forking over excessive money to sellers amounting to nearly 80% of the total profits or £281.46 million that came from the PL. Based on the past 21 years under Arsene Wenger only two, maybe three of these clubs are likely to exceed Arsenal in the final standings. None of these clubs (whether owner, chairman or chief executive) seem able to exercise any discipline or objectivity in player acquisition despite evidence to the contrary.

Conspicuously absent from this excessive consumption is Arsenal which paid a mere £2.7 million surplus for the acquisition of Alexander Lacazette. Arsenal is 3^rd only to Swansea and West Brom who through smart pricing and use of the loan system were able to generate value in excess of price from their acquisitions.

This is not to say Arsenal was afraid to pay big money for a special player. It emerged on deadline day the club was willing to pay up to £100 million for Thomas Lemar, a talented midfielder needed to fill a gaping vacancy that currently exists. Arsene Wenger disclosed publicly the deal fell through because the player was not ready for the move but pledged he would, when the opportunity next arise, make another attempt to do the deal.

Meanwhile the financial geniuses who dominate Arsenal twitter, blogs and podcasts post August 31^st attacked the club for having the financial discipline and resoluteness to not fall for the agents hyping players of modest value for inflated prices. Adding to the din and hysteria was certain so-called Arsenal legends who seem more interested in giving credence to agent talk than protecting the club’s long term financial strength. It begs the question who is in bed with these agents, whether as friends or business partners. Why would a blogger mock the club for making a £30 million profit on deadline day with the capacity to go back in the market to make a £100 million acquisition in the future?

This smacks of the “voice of Jacob but the hand of Esau.” Trust me, some of the parables of the Old Testament have eternal wisdom.

Tags: Agents, Arsenal Football Club, Arsene Wenger, Bundesliga, La Liga, Ligue 1, Premier League, Transfer Profits;, transfers Permalink

543 Comments

Arsenal’s Giant Hole In Midfield

Posted by shotta_gooner on August 28, 2017 in All Posts

giant hole

Yesterday’s horror show at Anfield has brought out all the usual media clichés, memes and tropes about Arsenal Football Club. No fight, no leadership, no spirit, no heart, etc.

As readers are familiar, conventional ideas based on feelings and opinions have no appeal to me. There is need to identify the real objective reasons for this sub-standard performance and support real solutions rather than engage in hyperbole and vitriol. That is if we truly care for the club, rather than our own egos.

Arsene Wenger in the post game presser expressed his dissatisfaction with the performance:

“I think from the first to the last minute we were not at the level requested for such a game and not physically, not technically, not mentally were we at the level and we were punished and that’s basically it. You can of course analyse the chances we gave away, but I just think overall that the performance was not at the requested level.”

But he was careful not to offer his opinion as to why it was substandard:

“That’s a question that is very difficult to answer straight away after the game and there are some reasons, but I don’t think I have too much to come out on that now.”

We as fans are entitled to our own opinion. Many have been quick to suggest there was lack of commitment by want-away players prior to the close of the transfer window. Those of us who witnessed a very lackadaisical performance by Samir Nasri in his final game for the club prior to his Manchester City transfer have good reason to believe it is déjà vu all over again.

Outplayed in midfield

While there may be truth about lack of commitment by some team members, I am more concerned about how easily we were outplayed in midfield. Possession statistics are very misleading having Liverpool and Arsenal at 49% and 51% respectively. While Arsenal apparently had superiority, most telling was AFC’s inability to turn possession into goal-scoring opportunities. The data makes horrible reading. Liverpool had 18 shots on goal with 8 on target. In comparison Arsenal had 10 shots on goal, nearly 50% less, but zero on target. Watching the game it was obvious Arsenal’s midfielders were easily pressured and did not have the ability to retain possession or make forward passes into dangerous areas where the forwards could make good shots thus forcing the clearly skittish Kaius to make saves.

Whoscored.com summarized Liverpool’s strengths as the following:

Created a high number of chances relative to their possession
Stole the ball often from the opposition
Were effective at creating goalscoring opportunities from the flanks
Were effective at creating goalscoring opportunities from counter attacks
Were strong at finishing

In contrast they concluded Arsenal had “no strengths.” (Brutal.)

Compare this to the similar fixture last year, Sunday, August 14^th, at the Emirates when Arsenal lost 3:4 and the same analytics indicated Arsenal’s strengths as:

Were effective at creating goalscoring opportunities through individual skill
Were strong at finishing

Those with vibrant memories will recall Arsenal was playing poorly that day. The club was down 1:3 at the 61^st minute mark when a certain little Spanish magician entered the fray and from his deep-lying midfield position helped retrieve some honor from a bleak position. It even worsened to 1:4 but Santi helped to stem the tide and bring it to a respectable 3:4 final score.

With Santi starting every game from then onward to October, when he finally succumbed to his current long term injury, Arsenal was an unbeatable force. I have kept banging the point since then. Arsenal’s midfield has a big giant hole, and needs a deep-lying playmaker to make the system work. This is a technically based team that needs technically accomplished players, especially in midfield, to play according to its DNA.

Arsenal’s midfielders are collectively inferior to main rivals

Based on EPL data, the brutal fact is, collectively Arsenal’s current crop of midfielders are arguably of inferior standard when compared to its main EPL rivals. I used data from Whoscored to compare like with like. For midfielders returning to their current teams I compared their 2016-17 data for Goals, Assists and overall Average Rating. By the way Whoscored classifies players like Alexis and Walcott as midfielders when in my opinion they are primarily wide forwards. In these cases and for similar players from other clubs they are excluded from the analysis. Similarly players classified as defenders but who played primarily as defensive midfielders, e.g. Emre Can, I include them in the analysis.

Club	Goals	Assists	Avg Rating
Liverpool	43	30	7.27
Manchester City	24	35	7.22
Chelsea	26	26	7.10
Manchester United	18	16	7.09
Tottenham	34	27	7.00
Arsenal	16	25	6.92

The data makes somber reading for all gooners. Among the top-6, of the returning midfielders from 2016-17 Arsenal is dead last in goals-scored and second from last in assists. Top of the list is Liverpool and hopefully the data should shut up the screaming imbeciles who think they are chopped liver.

What most concerns me is that although Wenger has bought quality players in Lacazette and Kolosinac to improve the forward-line and defense repectively, unlike his main rivals he has been unable to sign a top-top midfielder. Liverpool has brought Salah as an AM and he was rated 7.48 in the Scudetto, United has bought Matic who had a 7.01 overall rating at Chelsea last year, City has bought Silva who had a 7.29 rating in Ligue Une and Chelsea bought Bakayoko who brings a 7.27 overall rating from Monaco.

I am not arguing that any of these new players will suddenly become world class at their new clubs but they are clearly making an effort to strengthen with at least 7/10 players. Apart from Ozil, all other midfielders at Arsenal were less than 7/10 last year. This I would suggest is the root of Arsenal’s current midfield woes.

In my last blog I argued Arsenal will challenge based on the consistency of the club and its manager over the past 21 years and the evident efforts to strengthen the squad this season. The emotional outpouring of wailing and gnashing of teeth after the Liverpool defeat strengthens my contrarian conviction. There was a similar outpouring last year and the margin of defeat was far less. The data leads me to the conclusion that the manager knows where the weakness lie and will use the last days of the transfer window to try find a fix.

PS: I must take a temporary leave of absence from blogging to take care of some pressing issues. Hoping to return after the international break.

Tags: Arsenal Football Club, Arsene Wenger, Giant Hole, Midfield Permalink

72 Comments

Arsenal – A sour afternoon

Posted by anicoll5 on August 27, 2017 in All Posts

Good Evening any Positive fans out there,

I am not man to spend an entire evening crouching behind the sofa so I thought I’d get straight to the post-match review, cauterise the wound with trite expression, lance the boil with the balm of language, suck deep on the f****** lemon of defeat. Please help yourself from the plate above.

A shocker of an afternoon, more so because with the return of Sanchez and of Kosc I rather fancied that as an attacking force we might be more penetrative, and across the back line the Frenchman’s experience would steady us in the face of the expected Liverpool onslaught. A little surprised at Welbz up front alone but I could see the sense of the set up.

As it turned out my expectations were not met, and in reality we very rarely looked as likely to get the white bouncy thing into the oblong post thing. Zero shots or headers on target in 94 minutes sums up the afternoon in that respect. In respect of our defensive attributes the return of Kosc provide no discernible improvement. In fact I thought Laurent played quite well as he has not kicked a ball in anger for eight weeks but his fellow defenders touch at times resembled that a skittish kitten, jabbing at a tempting ball of wool, all nervous and fluffy.

Fair play to Liverpool who in Salah and Sane had two decisive contributors, sure in possession, hungry for the ball and decisive in their finishing. We were rocking on our heels at 1-0 and Sane’s second delivered the blow to decide the afternoon. 4-0 was the correct score. No excuses.

Losing to a team in which Alberto Moreno plays though ………(shudders)

Of our lads I thought Hector put his back into it for 90 minutes. When Le Coq came on I thought we finally had energy in midfield that was missing in the first 45. Nothing Cech could have done more than he did. Laca and Larry ? Too late to save our balloon that had gone ‘pop’ long before half time.

That is it – you saw the rest of our players and you know. Barely recognisable from the crew that hammered Chelsea in the Cup final and as recently as just a fortnight ago stormed back to overcome Leicester. A sombre dressing room. I have no doubt eddy will update us with the words of the (ashen-faced) manager.

I suspect the starting line up against Bournemouth on the 9^th September will have a few changes, both of personnel and, more importantly perhaps, of mind-set.E shall be back, stronger, faster, hungrier.

I am off to seek solace in a generally more reliable mistress of earthly pleasure. Enjoy your Sunday evening.

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88 Comments

Liverpool – A Six-Pointer?

Posted by pedantic George @arseblagger on August 27, 2017 in All Posts

allsport-andrei-arshavin-shows-four-liverpool_2197835.jpg

Sadly for 90 minutes we will be distracted from our jobs of management, transfers and coaching today, and we will have to watch a game of football. This game couldn’t come at a worse time for those of us that are busy running the club in our own image. But still, we should at least consider what annoyingly lies ahead up at Anfield.

Let’s start with the good news, Sanchez and Koscielny are available to start. Of course the bad news is it’s their first outing and they will be ~~useless~~, rusty.

I’m going to stick my neck out and say Xhaka and Ramsey will play in midfield with Sanchez, Ozil and Lacazette in front of them. Apart from that, I must admit, I am clueless as to who else will play and where.

It seems Liverpool are in fine form, following their comprehensive win in the Champions League. It’s 5 years since we went there and Abou, sorry, we won, so it’s a big ask. It would be nice if Lacazette or Sanchez could do an Arshavin and score with their every touch, as I feel someone will have to perform at an exceptional level for us to come away with the points. We do though have a number of individuals capable of such heroics.

With last year’s FA Cup now 3 competitive games away and no more than a distant memory, the robbery at Stoke confirming how useless we are and the Transfer Cup seemingly out of our reach now, we have lurched into our first crisis of the season. Our entire season depends on this game.

What a short season that was!

So a big performance is needed.

CARMON ARSENAL

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