44 Comments

Arsenal – Early Autumn Blossom

4413DBB600000578-4868088-image-a-32_1504970412079.jpgGood morning Positives,

A stylish victory brought fans, and it may be a few players, back to footballing life after the international break and the trough of our preceding result.

We played high speed football, with passing accurate and our players’ movement crisp. Our two Summer signings Lacazette and Sead stood out all afternoon. Ozil performed immaculately, Ramsey and Xhaka raced back and forth, all industry and nicking the ball first. And Danny Welbeck eh ? If ever a player deserved a wave of the wand of luck, as I’d say Danny had by being served a tricky but scoreable chance in the 6th minute. The stadium erupted. If Welbeck’s first strike had a whiff of fortune his second was a controlled finish, bottom corner, no chance for Begovic. And Alexandre’s goal in the 27th, or was it the 28th, minute ?

As AW on Danny said;

“Yep, I’m pleased with his performance, I kept faith in him and overall I think he is getting stronger and stronger and more confident. Confidence plays a big part in his game and I loved his finishing on his second goal.”

“Kept faith in him”. It was Welbeck’s day. Nice snap from the Daily Mail today at the top to celebrate.

Defensively ? Arsene stuck with his three formation, and my view for what it is worth is that Kosc, Musatfi and Nacho are our best 3. Kosc made just one tackle yesterday and Petr Cech just one save, just one.

And Giroud and Sanchez for that final 15 minutes – they looked HUNGRY.

No controversies, did anyone notice the referee ?

We were much too good for Bournemouth, simple as that.

Of our visitors they did not seem the same ‘together’ team that turned up last season and put up such a battle at the Ems, and then gave us an even worse fright with the 3-3 evening on the South coast. Third season syndrome ? Eddie Howe has spent a lot of cash but his probably more talented players do not have the same organisation as his earlier group. Swift action needed.

We have an interesting week ahead. Our first Europa League game ever and our first game in a second tier Euro completion since Galatasaray in May 2000. I see the stadium is sold out. It should be a good night. You will be pleased to know that Cologne suffered a sound 3-0 drubbing in the Bundesliga by Augsburg yesterday, the hat-trick of goals scored by a player well known to England fans Alfred Finnbogasson (shudders). Our German opponents sit firmly bottom of their league with 0 points from three games. I trust we’ll not take them lightly.   Even so …….

I shall not be with you on Thursday as during the game I shall be high over the Atlantic. The Chelsea game however I shall watch somewhere in NYC and, technology permitting, get straight back to you!

Enjoy your week.

 

86 Comments

Arsenal vs Bournemouth Has Become A Huge Game

vesuvius5.jpg

Good morning all you positives.

We go into today’s game with me not having a clue what team will play, what players will play and what shape we will adopt. So anyone hoping for the least little bit of insight can stop reading now.

For a while it looked like we had jumped on the “3 at the back” bandwagon permanently. Now it seems less sure. I’ve noticed that when Arsene wants the team to buck up, he makes a change to the tried and tested 4 across. The 3 seemed to play to the strengths of Xhaka and Ramsey, but recent results, and performances, have not give much confidence that it was more than a fleeting glimpse of a working partnership. The problem is that those two don’t seem to work too well in a 4 2 3 1 either.However they are both top class and I really can’t imagine a best 11 without either of them in it.

So what to do?

Go 4 3 3 and introduce Francis? It would make us stronger in the middle and offer more protection to a 4 at the back, but leaves us shoehorning the 3 (who I suspect will be first choice) of Lacazette, Alexis and Ozil ,into the front 3, meaning Ozil will be asked to play wide right.

So all in all, just about anything could happen. But whatever happens, it really has to work. Another bad result, with Chelsea away, up next, will see a meltdown not seen since Pompeii.

However often we tell ourselves that its a minority of fans that are against Arsene, the board, the team and Doris the tea lady, there are definitely enough to put the cat among the pigeons if the worst, or anything near the worst, happens this afternoon.

ULTi5lu.gif

Make no mistake, it may only be game 4, and it may only be Bournemouth at our gaff, but this game is huge.

Lets just hope all goes well, otherwise I’m building a bomb shelter.

P.S. I’m sure it will.

 

131 Comments

Arsenal Annihilates The Agents & Speculators In The Window

The-Wolf-of-Wall-Street

Contrary to all the nonsense we have been fed by the mainstream media and by Arsenal’s uber bloggers, tweeters and podcasters, the recent transfer window was an unquestionable victory for Arsenal Football Club over the agents and speculators who literally have the Premier League by the bollocks.

One well-known Arsenal blogger described it as “shambolic” literally calling out the manager, CEO and owner as incompetent. This is a man who has never managed a professional football club in his life much less an outfit that has a turnover of over £300 million pounds+ annually. Yet he has the temerity to scold the owner who is a billionaire in his own right and not merely from owning sports franchises.

Where has modesty gone to? How about being reserved and conditional in your criticism of professionals in a business you have absolutely no expertise? Can you imagine a general practitioner criticizing a specialist much less a patient who has written a few blogs on alternative medicine? Words fail me.

Yet his cohorts, like obedient “Pavlovian” dogs, simply ran with the same message, only to a slightly a different tune. Yes, he is entitled to his opinion, but how long can he and the gang maintain credibility when they are repeatedly proven to be wrong. “End of an era” anyone?

In today’s blog I will demonstrate their analysis is flawed and so are their conclusions. Let us get back to basics. Arsenal Football Club has never relied on making transfers to become successful. This is exemplified by a 1925 advertisement for the position of football manager, that is nearly 100 years ago:

“Arsenal Football Club is open to receive applications for the position of TEAM MANAGER. He must be experienced and possess the highest qualifications for the post, both as to ability and personal character. Gentlemen whose sole ability to build up a good side depends on the payment of heavy and exhorbitant transfer fees need not apply.”

 Every subsequent manager has publicly admitted that this is a fundamental policy of the club even despite years of lagging behind their more spendthrift rivals. The Arsene Wenger era has been no different. The current manager has consistently exceeded his top-4 rivals for the lowest net transfer spend vs league position. This is despite the explosion in transfer spending since the arrival of Roman Abramovich at Chelsea who according to David Dein “’parked Russian tanks on our lawn, firing £50 notes at us.”

This transfer window was no different and despite the honeyed pleas of agents and their mouthpieces in the media, including bloggers and so called legends of the club, Arsenal stood firm and refused to be fleeced by the parasites hanging unto professional football in general and the PL in particular.

We start from the known fact that markets are used for profit extraction. Any professional in the stock market or its facsimile use the selling of inventory as a method of deriving profits from buyers. Similarly the transfer window is an opportunity for selling clubs, and increasingly for agents and 3rd party owners, to extract profit from willing buyers for players they have a tradable interest. Money is flowing into the market from tv rights and from sugar daddy owners. Many clubs are compelled, often by subjective reasons, to use these cash inflows to acquire new players. The Qataris, for example, given their current economic and political confrontation with the Saudis and other Gulf States, are known to have an interest in raising their pr profile internationally. No wonder they were willing to make a big splash by funding the unprecedented $200 million acquisition by PSG of Neymar from Barcelona. The fact that last season PSG was 2nd in Ligue Une and made the last 8 of the champion’s league would suggest a club far from being uncompetitive. Up to the recent past, conventional wisdom would be they need only one or two modestly priced additions to guarantee an improvement in their standing.

Transfermarkt.co.uk provides sufficient data to indicate how much profit is being derived from the underlying value of the players. I focused on the top 100 transfers (ranked either by value or transfer value) at the end of the window. Not surprisingly, given the massive amounts of money sloshing around, the premier league was at the top in Europe for profit extraction.

Profit Extraction from Top 100 Transfers

No Traded Market value Moving to Lge Transfer fee Profit (£millions) Profit (%)
38 720.45 Premier League     1,075.68 355.23 49%
7 191.25 Ligue 1        288.90 97.65 51%
11 217.80 La Liga        264.60 46.80 21%
15 229.50 Bundesliga        258.30 28.80 13%
2 13.50 Championship          31.50 18.00 133%
2 18.00 Rusian Premier League          35.10 17.10 95%
1 18.00 Chinese Super League          31.23 13.23 74%
2 26.10 Portugese Liga Nos          18.00 -8.10 -31%
1 14.40 Turkish Süper Lig             3.15 -11.25 -78%
21 370.80 Serie A        338.58 -32.22 -9%
100    1,819.80       2,345.04         525.24 29%

From a market value of £720.45 million in players traded, selling clubs in combination with agents and other 3rd parties were able to extract £355.23 million in nominal profits from the premier league, nearly 50% return. Which other legitimate market in Britain is generating such a handsome return to traders? No wonder the Raiolas and Mendezes have taken permanent occupation of clubs like United, City and Chelsea who are splashing the cash. Forget the fairytale that the profits generated will circulate and multiply among the lower leagues.

Unlike the English premiership, all other leagues generate substantially less profits for traders. Ligue 1 appears second but this was distorted by the Neymar transfer which generated £109 million in surplus to Barcelona. If it wasn’t for this transaction the French market would have been a negative proposition for selling clubs.

What is most disconcerting is that the top two European leagues in terms of champion’s league dominance, La Liga and the Bundesliga, are not pissing away football money by doing deals way in excess of market value of players traded. Profits were £46.80 and £28.80 respectively. Note how the Germans, the wealthiest country in Europe, are quite stingy, yielding a mere £28.80 million or 13% rate of profit on players traded.

Unlike the Germans, with their sane, sensible approach to transfers, English clubs are pissing away money left, right and center with one notable exception, Arsenal FC.

Profit Extraction from Premier League Clubs

Club No Traded Market value Transfer fee Profit (£millions) Profit (%)
Man City 5 126.00 205.65 79.65 63%
Chelsea 5 105.75 182.61 76.86 73%
Everton 4 68.4 120.06 51.66 76%
Man United 3 105.30 147.96 42.66 41%
Spurs 3 41.40 72.09 30.69 74%
Liverpool 2 51.3 72.00 20.70 40%
Southampton 2 17.55 30.06 12.51 71%
Crystal Palace 1 13.5 25.38 11.88 88%
Leicester 1 13.5 24.93 11.43 85%
Stoke 1 6.30 17.46 11.16 177%
Bournemouth 1 10.80 20.52 9.72 90%
Burnley 1 5.40 14.76 9.36 173%
West Ham 2 29.70 36.09 6.39 22%
Watford 1 13.50 18.36 4.86 36%
Arsenal 1 45.00 47.70 2.70 6%
Swansea 3 38.25 26.37 -11.88 -31%
West Brom 2 28.80 13.68 -15.12 -53%
38 720.45 1,075.68 355.23

Not surprisingly, the two sugar-daddy clubs, City and Chelsea are #1 and #2 in handing over substantial profits to selling clubs. Note these figures are for only the top 100 transfers in the window. It is likely that further down the line they and others in the premier league are giving away big money for low value players.

It is striking that the traditional clubs, which compete annually with Arsenal for a position in the top-6 (Chelsea, City, Everton, United, Spurs and Liverpool) have no reservation in forking over excessive money to sellers amounting to nearly 80% of the total profits or £281.46 million that came from the PL. Based on the past 21 years under Arsene Wenger only two, maybe three of these clubs are likely to exceed Arsenal in the final standings. None of these clubs (whether owner, chairman or chief executive) seem able to exercise any discipline or objectivity in player acquisition despite evidence to the contrary.

Conspicuously absent from this excessive consumption is Arsenal which paid a mere £2.7 million surplus for the acquisition of Alexander Lacazette. Arsenal is 3rd only to Swansea and West Brom who through smart pricing and use of the loan system were able to generate value in excess of price from their acquisitions.

This is not to say Arsenal was afraid to pay big money for a special player. It emerged on deadline day the club was willing to pay up to £100 million for Thomas Lemar, a talented midfielder needed to fill a gaping vacancy that currently exists. Arsene Wenger disclosed publicly the deal fell through because the player was not ready for the move but pledged he would, when the opportunity next arise, make another attempt to do the deal.

Meanwhile the financial geniuses who dominate Arsenal twitter, blogs and podcasts post August 31st attacked the club for having the financial discipline and resoluteness to not fall for the agents hyping players of modest value for inflated prices. Adding to the din and hysteria was certain so-called Arsenal legends who seem more interested in giving credence to agent talk than protecting the club’s long term financial strength. It begs the question who is in bed with these agents, whether as friends or business partners. Why would a blogger mock the club for making a £30 million profit on deadline day with the capacity to go back in the market to make a £100 million acquisition in the future?

This smacks of the “voice of Jacob but the hand of Esau.” Trust me, some of the parables of the Old Testament have eternal wisdom.

543 Comments

Arsenal’s Giant Hole In Midfield

giant hole

Yesterday’s horror show at Anfield has brought out all the usual media clichés, memes and tropes about Arsenal Football Club. No fight, no leadership, no spirit, no heart, etc.

As readers are familiar, conventional ideas based on feelings and opinions have no appeal to me. There is need to identify the real objective reasons for this sub-standard performance and support real solutions rather than engage in hyperbole and vitriol. That is if we truly care for the club, rather than our own egos.

Arsene Wenger in the post game presser expressed his dissatisfaction with the performance:

“I think from the first to the last minute we were not at the level requested for such a game and not physically, not technically, not mentally were we at the level and we were punished and that’s basically it. You can of course analyse the chances we gave away, but I just think overall that the performance was not at the requested level.”

But he was careful not to offer his opinion as to why it was substandard:

“That’s a question that is very difficult to answer straight away after the game and there are some reasons, but I don’t think I have too much to come out on that now.”

 

We as fans are entitled to our own opinion. Many have been quick to suggest there was lack of commitment by want-away players prior to the close of the transfer window. Those of us who witnessed a very lackadaisical performance by Samir Nasri in his final game for the club prior to his Manchester City transfer have good reason to believe it is déjà vu all over again.

Outplayed in midfield

While there may be truth about lack of commitment by some team members, I am more concerned about how easily we were outplayed in midfield. Possession statistics are very misleading having Liverpool and Arsenal at 49% and 51% respectively. While Arsenal apparently had superiority, most telling was AFC’s inability to turn possession into goal-scoring opportunities. The data makes horrible reading. Liverpool had 18 shots on goal with 8 on target. In comparison Arsenal had 10 shots on goal, nearly 50% less, but zero on target. Watching the game it was obvious Arsenal’s midfielders were easily pressured and did not have the ability to retain possession or make forward passes into dangerous areas where the forwards could make good shots thus forcing the clearly skittish Kaius to make saves.

Whoscored.com summarized Liverpool’s strengths as the following:

  • Created a high number of chances relative to their possession
  • Stole the ball often from the opposition
  • Were effective at creating goalscoring opportunities from the flanks
  • Were effective at creating goalscoring opportunities from counter attacks
  • Were strong at finishing

In contrast they concluded Arsenal had “no strengths.”   (Brutal.)

Compare this to the similar fixture last year, Sunday, August 14th, at the Emirates when Arsenal lost 3:4 and the same analytics indicated Arsenal’s strengths as:

  • Were effective at creating goalscoring opportunities through individual skill
  • Were strong at finishing

Those with vibrant memories will recall Arsenal was playing poorly that day. The club was down 1:3 at the 61st minute mark when a certain little Spanish magician entered the fray and from his deep-lying midfield position helped retrieve some honor from a bleak position. It even worsened to 1:4 but Santi helped to stem the tide and bring it to a respectable 3:4 final score.

With Santi starting every game from then onward to October, when he finally succumbed to his current long term injury, Arsenal was an unbeatable force. I have kept banging the point since then. Arsenal’s midfield has a big giant hole, and needs a deep-lying playmaker to make the system work. This is a technically based team that needs technically accomplished players, especially in midfield, to play according to its DNA.

Arsenal’s midfielders are collectively inferior to main rivals

 Based on EPL data, the brutal fact is, collectively Arsenal’s current crop of midfielders are arguably of inferior standard when compared to its main EPL rivals. I used data from Whoscored to compare like with like. For midfielders returning to their current teams I compared their 2016-17 data for Goals, Assists and overall Average Rating. By the way Whoscored classifies players like Alexis and Walcott as midfielders when in my opinion they are primarily wide forwards. In these cases and for similar players from other clubs they are excluded from the analysis. Similarly players classified as defenders but who played primarily as defensive midfielders, e.g. Emre Can, I include them in the analysis.

Club Goals Assists Avg Rating
Liverpool 43 30 7.27
Manchester City 24 35 7.22
Chelsea 26 26 7.10
Manchester United 18 16 7.09
Tottenham 34 27 7.00
Arsenal 16 25 6.92

The data makes somber reading for all gooners. Among the top-6, of the returning midfielders from 2016-17 Arsenal is dead last in goals-scored  and second from last in assists. Top of the list is Liverpool and hopefully the data should shut up the screaming imbeciles who think they are chopped liver.

What most concerns me is that although Wenger has bought quality players in Lacazette and Kolosinac to improve the forward-line and defense repectively, unlike his main rivals he has been unable to sign a top-top midfielder. Liverpool has brought Salah as an AM and he was rated 7.48 in the Scudetto, United has bought Matic who had a 7.01 overall rating at Chelsea last year, City has bought Silva who had a 7.29 rating in Ligue Une and Chelsea bought Bakayoko who brings a 7.27 overall rating from Monaco.

I am not arguing that any of these new players will suddenly become world class at their new clubs but they are clearly making an effort to strengthen with at least 7/10 players. Apart from Ozil, all other midfielders at Arsenal were less than 7/10 last year. This I would suggest is the root of Arsenal’s current midfield woes.

In my last blog I argued Arsenal will challenge based on the consistency of the club and its manager over the past 21 years and the evident efforts to strengthen the squad this season. The emotional outpouring of wailing and gnashing of teeth after the Liverpool defeat strengthens my contrarian conviction. There was a similar outpouring last year and the margin of defeat was far less. The data leads me to the conclusion that the manager knows where the weakness lie and will use the last days of the transfer window to try find a fix.

PS: I must take a temporary leave of absence from blogging to take care of some pressing issues. Hoping to return after the international break.

72 Comments

Arsenal – A sour afternoon

 

Lemon-Slices.jpgGood Evening any Positive fans out there,

I am not man to spend an entire evening crouching behind the sofa so I thought I’d get straight to the post-match review, cauterise the wound with trite expression, lance the boil with the balm of language, suck deep on the f****** lemon of defeat. Please help yourself from the plate above.

A shocker of an afternoon, more so because with the return of Sanchez and of Kosc I rather fancied that as an attacking force we might be more penetrative, and across the back line the Frenchman’s experience would steady us in the face of the expected Liverpool onslaught. A little surprised at Welbz up front alone but I could see the sense of the set up.

As it turned out my expectations were not met, and in reality we very rarely looked as likely to get the white bouncy thing into the oblong post thing. Zero shots or headers on target in 94 minutes sums up the afternoon in that respect. In respect of our defensive attributes the return of Kosc provide no discernible improvement. In fact I thought Laurent played quite well as he has not kicked a ball in anger for eight weeks but his fellow defenders touch at times resembled that a skittish kitten, jabbing at a tempting ball of wool, all nervous and fluffy.

Fair play to Liverpool who in Salah and Sane had two decisive contributors, sure in possession, hungry for the ball and decisive in their finishing. We were rocking on our heels at 1-0 and Sane’s second delivered the blow to decide the afternoon. 4-0 was the correct score. No excuses.

Losing to a team in which Alberto Moreno plays though ………(shudders)

Of our lads I thought Hector put his back into it for 90 minutes. When Le Coq came on I thought we finally had energy in midfield that was missing in the first 45. Nothing Cech could have done more than he did. Laca and Larry ? Too late to save our balloon that had gone ‘pop’ long before half time.

That is it – you saw the rest of our players and you know. Barely recognisable from the crew that hammered Chelsea in the Cup final and as recently as just a fortnight ago stormed back to overcome Leicester. A sombre dressing room. I have no doubt eddy will update us with the words of the (ashen-faced) manager.

I suspect the starting line up against Bournemouth on the 9th September will have a few changes, both of personnel and, more importantly perhaps, of mind-set.E shall be back, stronger, faster, hungrier.

I am off to seek solace in a generally more reliable mistress of earthly pleasure. Enjoy your Sunday evening.

d3cc121f-d98d-4ee4-8503-34c18382a05f.gif

 

 

 

 

88 Comments

Liverpool – A Six-Pointer?

allsport-andrei-arshavin-shows-four-liverpool_2197835.jpg

Sadly for 90 minutes we will be distracted from our jobs of management, transfers and coaching today, and we will have to watch a game of football. This game couldn’t come at a worse time for those of us that are busy running the club in our own image. But still, we should at least consider what annoyingly lies ahead up at Anfield.

Let’s start with the good news, Sanchez and Koscielny are available to start. Of course the bad news is it’s their first outing and they will be useless, rusty.

I’m going to stick my neck out and say Xhaka and Ramsey will play in midfield with Sanchez, Ozil and Lacazette in front of them. Apart from that, I must admit, I am clueless as to who else will play and where.

It seems Liverpool are in fine form, following their comprehensive win in the Champions League. It’s 5 years since we went there and Abou, sorry, we won, so it’s a big ask. It would be nice if Lacazette or Sanchez could do an Arshavin and score with their every touch, as I feel someone will have to perform at an exceptional level for us to come away with the points. We do though have a number of individuals capable of such heroics.

With last year’s FA Cup now 3 competitive games away and no more than a distant memory,  the robbery at Stoke confirming how useless we are and the Transfer Cup seemingly out of our reach now, we have lurched into our first crisis of the season. Our entire season depends on this game.

What a short season that was!

So a big performance is needed.

CARMON ARSENAL

303 Comments

Arsenal Will Compete For The Title: The Contrarian View

the-art-of-war-sun-tzu-review-kshitij-Patil-kshitijpatil-com

This blog was written 24 hours before Arsenal’s loss to Stoke. Everything football and media-wise from that game reinforces my findings and conclusions.

Positivistas: This is not a blog about me per se but am using my experience to explain to our audience the meaning of a contrarian world view and how it applies to the football club we so love and support. After all so much is written and said about this club on a daily basis which, to me at least, is confusing and contradictory and makes absolutely no sense. Hopefully this essay may be helpful in providing a rational and logical perspective.

A contrarian according to the Webster on-line dictionary is defined as:

“One who takes a contrary view or action, especially an investor who makes decisions that contradict prevailing wisdom, as in buying securities that are unpopular at the time.”

Contrarian investors are usually successfully because they buy stocks when they are cheap due to their unpopularity and profit from them when their value rises over time.
Contrarians Rely on the Unbiased Data

As a self-described contrarian I will therefore typically disagree with or proceed against current opinion or established practice. But contrarians do not disagree simply to be disagreeable. Any successful contrarian investor, will base their opinions and findings entirely on the unbiased data, meaning it is subject to robust statistical analysis and not stitched up to suit a particular viewpoint.

Thus, for example, in my last blog I did not prescribe either an attack or defense oriented approach this season after analyzing 21 years of data demonstrating a widening gap in Goals-Against between Arsenal and the winning teams in the premier league. The data was clearly suggesting a more balanced approach where the club not only aims to score more goals but also concentrate on conceding less.

It may interest you how I arrived at this outlook. Twenty years ago I became one of the increasing millions of Americans whose employer no longer offer standard pensions, the alternative was a defined savings plans, in my case it being the very popular 401(k) retirement plan. Initially I was one of those passive investors who followed the conventional rules proclaimed by brokers, investment advisers and the mainstream media, i.e. always fully invested in the market regardless of highs and lows. Despite repeated evidence that the stock market is a dangerous place for uninformed amateurs I was like a lamb to the slaughter buying high and sell low.

My “Damascene” moment was the 2008-2009 crisis when, like almost all my American cohorts, my retirement nest-egg was almost totally wiped out by the stock market crash. I then learnt, like millions, how the big investment houses and banks such as Goldman, Merrill-Lynch, Deutsche, Barclays, etc., engineered the bubble arm-in-arm with the mainstream media, conveniently bailing out before the shit-hit-the-fan.

Public Sentiment Is A Contrarian Indicator

It is well known among all academic studies that when it comes to market performance public sentiment is a contrarian indicator. The public is inclined to buy on good news when prices are high and sell on bad news when prices are low; clearly a losing proposition.

Contrarians partially attribute this to Freud’s theory that unconsciously we human beings are often motivated by our primal instincts of fear and despair. Thus, for example, I was one of millions in 2007 who feared missing out on the rising market, refusing to sell when the market was topping out. Similarly, when the market hit rock bottom in 2009-2010 and the Feds were pumping trillions in the market most of us missed the monumental increase in stock prices out of despair that the market would ever recover again.

Similarly, how many times have Arsenal fans acted irrationally based on fear sown by the mainstream media that the club is on the edge of disaster because of a run of bad results. Despite 21 years of history showing Arsene Wenger is the most knowledgeable, most accomplished and most consistent manager in the league, fans have been frequently stirred and motivated to drive their greatest ever manager out of the club. At the very moment they are acting most irrationally the club is usually digging itself out of a hole. Last year was no exception. While the mainstream media was rushing to wager bets as to how soon Arsene Wenger would get his pink-slip, between April and May the club won 10 out of 11 matches to not only move from 8th to 5th in the league but to also secure its 3rd FA cup title in four years.

Mainstream Media Can Never Be Neutral

Much related and connected to public sentiment is the role of the mainstream media which is often the purveyors of public opinion. Contrary to conventional wisdom that the media has a neutral, unbiased interest in reporting facts, when it comes to money and investing they have a commercial interest in propagating fear and despair. Fear sells. It generates newspaper sales, listeners/viewers in radio/television and clicks on-line.

No commercially-oriented media company benefits from the boring up and down behavior of the market. To the contrary, if a media company is commercially dependent on investment banks, brokers, mutual funds etc., it is in their objective interest to hype a rise and fall of the market. At the very least, there are commissions to be made by market insiders when stocks are heavily traded.

Oftentimes a media representative, like a broker, may be professionally aware that the market is set for a fall, but because his or her commission is tied to generating new sales, he/she continue to induce more lemmings to invest, leading them like little lambs to the slaughter. No wonder so many of us were fully invested in worthless mortgage-related stocks during the last crash.

No Interest In Boring Arsenal

Similarly no commercial media house has an interest in “boring, boring” Arsenal. Just in terms of sheer numbers, supporters of the football club are clearly a fertile market for media exploitation. For example, from the reports I have read, Arsenal has the biggest online presence among football clubs worldwide. Since Wenger transformed the club into one of the biggest in England, there are now huge expectations by fans season after season. Correspondingly among these fans is chronic anxiety that the club may be falling behind its better financed rivals, not only to the traditional commercial giant Manchester United but the nouveau rich externally financed clubs, Chelsea and City.

It is no surprise that not a day passes without an alarming story in the mainstream media portending disaster at Arsenal football Club. Take for example, this week’s headlines from a Google search:

Liverpool join Arsenal in race for Jean Michael Seri: Reds in talks with NiceDaily Express

Liverpool on brink of signing Arsenal target Jean Michael SeriDaily Star

Liverpool Set to Sign Ligue 1 Midfield Star Seri Ahead of Arsenal, TottenhamSports Illustrated

It begs the question has Arsenal ever publicly disclosed an interest in signing Seri? Does the club ever get into a bidding war for any player? Any informed fan should have the answer to both questions.

Public Sentiment Is Against Arsenal

What of the current predictions by the media for Arsenal this season? As evident below is all  doom and gloom:

  • 6th Place – Guardian (Writers predictions)
  • 6th Place – BBC (Writers predictions)
  • 4th Place – ESPN (Writers predictions)

One wonders what are the factual bases for these predictions. We have had 21 years of Arsenal averaging 3rd position in the premier league and never falling out of the top-4 except last season. This new campaign the club has kept all of its top players from the previous season and furthermore strengthened the squad with: (1) the second highest goal-scorer from the French league, and (2) a left-back who made the Budesliga best XI for the last season.

The fundamental data is therefore indicating the current squad is deeper and better qualitatively than it was last year and, arguably, better than it has ever been since 2005. It seems to me a clear case of the mainstream media once again discounting the facts and data and simply emphasizing current negative public sentiment. What a surprise!

Contrarians are usually in a small minority, at least initially. I am therefore amongst a precious few who will confidently wager on a title challenge. In fact I will go further and predict Arsenal will most certainly regain its top-3 position. Only a total injury disaster will prevent this achievement and, if they are allowed to get away with it, undue referee bias.

For the sake of irony, I will conclude with the following disclosure: Information in this essay is not investment advice. Please consult a financial professional to help make decisions suitable to your particular situation and risk tolerance. That should take care of the bleeding football “experts” writing blogs, tweeting and doing podcasts.

Postscript:

Arsenal this season may well suffer from undue referee bias and another penalty embargo  but vs Stoke they were statistically dominant despite being denied two penalties and a good goal ruled offside. The following summary was obtained from Whoscored.com:

Stoke Key Metric Arsenal
11 Shots 18
4 Shots on target 6
63% Pass Success % 88%
64% Aerial Duel Success 36%
7 Dribbles won 13
19 Tackles 16
23% Possession 77%

I rest my case.

66 Comments

Arsenal – Medium/Rare

w1_crow_raven_copy.jpg

Good morning + people,

Well the six game winning streak came to an end yesterday evening as we all saw, the defeat more of a breathy whimper on our part than the blood soaked orgy of violence that I have come to expect at the Britannia. As recently as the 13th May we had thumped the same opponents on the same ground, so there you go. Football eh.

This morning I see the experts are out in mainstream media and on social media with 101 theories to explain Arsenal’s oh-so-obvious deficiencies; the players chosen and not chosen, the positions they played in and did not play in, players bought and sold -v- not bought and not sold, the tactics, the strategy, the team psychology, the physiology, the medical team, and don’t imagine you are off the hook for your part in this “debacle” Vic f******* Akers. Oh yes there is nothing like a 0-1 defeat at Stoke to stir the juices of discontent.

I admit I don’t think we played as well as we can. Stoke did not match our football yet when they had one half chance, caused by our defensive hesitation, they scored. Ironically against our usual bête-noire in against the Orcs – the long high ball – we coped almost perfectly all game. When we were firmly in charge of the ball, as we were for long periods before half time and for the final half hour ( when my guess is the possession percentages must have been 90/10 to us) we did not score. We created but no egg hatched. The longer the game went on it seemed to me the less likely it was that we would crack the home sides defence and earn at least what would have been a respectable point.

Of our players I thought Hector and the Ox were excellent in their wing back roles. As we all saw, though Mr Marriner did not, Hector’s bursting run could have been the key we needed to turn the Stoke lock. I thought Granit and Aaron controlled midfield all afternoon and quelled the usually lively Orc toilers, Fletcher and Allen. Alexander Lacazette I thought had his best game for us so far. Yes I know he did not “score” but he ever so nearly did, and no doubt some will say the goal should have stood. Strikers have many facets to their game, of movement, imagination and anticipation, and he demonstrated them throughout the game. On a side note unlike many French players who have joined us over the years Alexander looks very fit and well able to last 90 minutes.

Of our opponents I would have to pick out Jack Butland who looked highly competent. He has a fine future, somewhere and in the meantime will get loads of goalkeeping practice under Mark Hughes.

Where are we then – two games in ? I think in receipt of a sobering slap to wake us up to the realities of League football. Despite our excellent form and Stoke’s poor recent results nothing can be taken for granted. I have no doubt we shall be working hard in training all week on the art of converting overwhelming possession into strikes on goal.

Onwards to Anfield next week and I see a 4pm Sunday kick off which gives us a few days of reflection on yesterday, and on or recent performances, and to identify what we are doing well, and where improvement is required. I do not expect any radical alteration to our set up or our approach to the Liverpool game. I anticipate Kosc will be back on duty which will make us a little steadier at the back but I warn you – it will be goals goals goals !!

Enjoy your Sunday…

113 Comments

Arsenal v ………….That Lot.

1449317431511_lc_galleryImage_Football_Soccer_Stoke_Cit 2.jpg

A guest contributor who shall remain nameless 

 

Well, match day two, and we are off to the sunny climes of Stoke, and Joke City ( “two Orcs for every Gun” as them old surfers Jean and Dan sang). Yes, its already their Cup Final! In fact rumour has it that even if the Jokers were to actually reach the FAC, todays fixture would be still a bigger deal. A game that every Orc relishes and every Gooner grrrroans at and hopes Gandalfs on the team list. To me it always seems a bit like a League Cup game (early rounds) when we play them…yes interesting, but nothing to start frothing at the gills over.

 

Anyway, it will soon be over, and back home again, and hopefully with another three points in the bag. What is this bag everyone talks about that the points go in? Granny’s handbag? A scumbag? A carrier bag from Waitrose that you take in Lidl on the sly and use instead of one of their bags, mostly to show that Mrs.Cheeseman at number 42 that you’re not poor as you walk past her house on the way home-(don’t worry she shops at Aldi, and I heard she’s been snogging that horrible Oswald Muesli bloke from number 16)? Or perhaps a velvety bag, blue-black in colour that’s deep and sensuous that you can search about for ages in while listening to some Lem Winchester CDs?

 

For us though, it be one of the two rugby games we play each season against the Potties. No Arsenal fan looks forward to this date too much, as the Orcs seems to be the antithesis of Arsenal,Arsène and Wengerball. I always fear for all our team but especially for the likes of Mesut, and Rambo ( how must he feel having to make the trip to Mordor I have no idea) having to get in the time machine and go back to the early 1970s. For Stoke often seem to have that style about them?

 

They love to play “Slogger, clogger, bogger, hogger ,fogger, bovver- ball” as its known in Stoke. The philosophy at Stoke is all meat pie, cigs, a shag (the dance of course, what kind of a mind have you got?!)and more cigs, more meat pies, a choice of ham or spam sandwiches and 16 cups a tea and that’s just at HT. Exercise and fitness training at Stoke FC in mid-week includes a trip to the local arcade and a go on the grab, then down to the pub to read Look-in and twenty pints of Double Diamond, a bag or two of Pork Scratchin’s and up early next day for a big greasy breakfast and a scrap with some locals on a building site. The rest of the day is spent sitting on a Potty, and that’s why that area is know as the Potteries. Or that’s what I heard from my Aunt Hilda van Soiler-Buit. But she was famous for telling tall tales, so perhaps this is all just a misunderstanding?

 

 

I daresay the Jokers will be naffed awf at getting a spanking last time around, and as long as it doesn’t start raining, I reckon they will get a good spanking again. And even if they don’t, they deserve it. I asked an astrologer Edward de Krystal-Hemlock Spudney and he predicted 3-0 to the Gunners. It cost me fifty pounds and seventy five pence to get the reading, I didn’t like the way he had a picture of Harry Kane in his tent though. My Uncle Norvus warned me about the dangers of astrology when I was a nipper. It was the first time I’ve been in a tent since 1947. And I wont be going back in one, I can tell thee!

 

In some respects Im glad we are playing them already as to avoid the fabled ‘rainy Tuesday night in January at Stoke’ syndrome (ie them winning and us getting booted about and broken in the mud because we aren’t interested to play them), although the addition of Kolasinac might even things up a bit? I wonder already what will Lacazette make of this fixture? He seems cooler than cool, so I’m sure he can take it in his stride. And give us a couple of goals.

I have no idea who will be in the team today, but without Sanchez and Steww both AFC and PA aren’t up to their best standards, however hopefully both will be back to top fitness and eligible for selection soon. And I can be sent off into the woods in search of Baba Yaga. Although Babs is probably a billionaire now, and is looking to buy up a team. She would probably buy up Stoke! After all she flew around in a kind of potty herself.

 

Not much of an article, it was supposed only to be a stocking filler. I got the stocks on my head and wandered about for a bit but couldn’t find any yokels to throws things at me, and then went in my partners room and into her chest of drawers where she keeps her stockings, grabbed a pair and put them over my head. I started looking in the mirror and made a few hard poses, a few in profile, sort of Jimmy Cagney meets Joe Pesci, but it was really more Joe90, as my glasses got all mashed up in the stockings. My partner came in just as I was saying ” hand it over you dirty rat”  in a Joe Pesci styled accent and she asked what I was doing with her stockings on my head? She wouldnt believe me when I said I was writing the PA match day review! I dunno what’s a guy supposed to do?

 

At least we didn’t talk about transfers.

 

If you’re going to Mordor, may Elbereth be with you (or something stronger), and if not, sit back and feel anxious until we score goal number four and then enjoy the game. Up next, them Scallies of Brookside. Calm down! Calm down!

 

COYG!

David Pfarecluff—-schööper schub

 

 

33 Comments

Arsenal Play Contract Poker

 

Today we have a guest post from @foreverheady

You’ve got to know when to hold ’em 
Know when to fold ’em 
Know when to walk away 
And know when to run…

I don’t know much about Contract Law, and like most people have no idea about the details of anyone’s exact terms of employment. I’m even a little hazy about my own, to be honest. However, I have been hearing a lot about contracts recently, and as there seem to be a large number of Contract Experts who follow The Arsenal, either as fans or journalists, I thought I’d add a few thoughts of my own.

The first and obvious point is that most contracts are a two-way agreement between employer and employee, or for the sake of this piece, between club and player. The club decides how much, and for how long, it is willing to pay for the services of the player. In return the player decides whether he agrees with that valuation, whether he likes the thought of playing for that club, and whether he wants to tie himself to that situation for the next few years. Footballers can sign their first contract at 16, and if they are lucky with injury can expect to stay playing until they are about 33. Most players would expect to play for several teams, with the best players hoping to end up at the most successful and highest-paying clubs for the last several years of their career. Further down the food chain less successful players will tumble down the leagues, eventually finding their age-related level. The best accounts I have read of what it is like to play in those lower reaches are the two fine books by Gary Nelson, Left Foot Forward and Left Foot in the Grave.  If you haven’t read them I urge you to. The whole business is a cut-throat cattle market where everyone has his price and only a few make it properly big. Players need agents to look after their interests, because the clubs are utterly cold and callous when it comes to assessing worth – and very few players enjoy careers untarnished by injury.

Indeed, it is probably the spectre of injury that gives each contract its finesse, and which causes players and clubs to either hold or fold. Much is made at the moment of Alexis, Mesut and The Ox and their current contractual situations, but few commentators point out that while running down a contract is financially worthwhile for a player, it also carries considerable risk. Any player in the last year of their contract will know they are only a leg-break away from kissing goodbye to millions of pounds, a ligament-tear to the end of career. Those 3, 4 or 5 year contracts promise a significant safety-net: without them wet Tuesday nights at Stoke become even more fraught. For our two superstars they can probably afford the risk: they are towards the end of their careers, they have World Cups ahead of them, and they have almost certainly amassed significant fortunes already. They can make their choices now for football reasons and for where they feel happiest – and for how they imagine their club careers ending. It is tempting for me to think that Alexis will be off next year, and that Mesut will stay, but I only think that because that is the way the media narrative, a narrative largely controlled by the players agents, has chosen to portray the situations. As with most things in life, I haven’t really got a clue.

But for the Ox it is very different. He has the world at his feet, but has yet to really establish himself. He has had his injuries, and his all-action style of play suggest he might pick up a few more. I doubt he would want to gamble a whole season without the guarantee of more pay days ahead. A decent offer from Arsenal would probably tempt him. But for Arsenal, how much do they want to commit to a player who is still all about promise and who has his erratic moments? A new contract worth £150, 000 a week for the next four years? A bargain if he turns into the world-beater he has suggested he might be, but a profligate waste of money if in two years’ time he is just another fringe player who is hard to sell to another club because they can’t afford his wages. £60 million from Chelsea might look attractive, but what if he is the next Bale after all?

And so when anyone talks about contracts to be extended, and who should be signed, and who should be sold – and for how much, and for how long, I would simply ask this. What would you do in the case of each player? How would you value Alex Iwobi, or Reiss Nelson? How much would you gamble on them actually becoming the stars they might be? What would you do with the Ox? Or Aaron Ramsey? Or Holding or Chambers? And if you were any of those players, what balance would you strike between ambition and security? And if you’ll forgive me a Kenneth Williams moment, all I know is that it’s a lot harder than it looks from the outside. To play the off-field game you need nerves of steel and a razor-sharp mind – which is why the club I love and support is lucky to have the finest poker-player of them all

 Arsene-Wenger1