Today a guest post from @poonaloon

Chances are Arsene’s unfancied eleven could cause a third title-winning upset …

I haven’t done this for a while.  I am a bit out of practice, so be gentle.  I used to blog regularly, but stopped five or six years ago.  The lines of debate became so fixed that people stopped listening, you were just lumped under an acronym and your views were taken for granted.  Denilson’s forward pass statistics ended it for me.  Kudos to anyone who has stuck around being a gobshite or passionately enjoying The Arsenal and saying so online since then; it must have taken some stamina.  I don’t need trophies to enjoy Arsenal, but they would be nice.  As we enter the home straight of this season though there seems very little reason not to be excited on many levels.

In Europe we get another crack at a Pep Guardiola team, one who are again the standard for world football.  Getting to see that live will be wonderful.  Unlike the previous pops at his teams, I think we have a genuine chance this time. (We came damn close but for a dodgy red card already.)  If we do get through, then we have as good a chance as anyone left and no one will want to draw us.  Absolutely no one.  It will be interesting to see how Arsene approaches the tie and sets the team up.  Do we go for a guns-blazing home win, taking something away to defend, or try and play it close over two legs and pick our moments?  The Dortmund games, where we played far better at home and lost before winning away in a scrap, shows how variable things can be at this level.  That we even have a choice of tactics or style is something worth savouring, it hasn’t always been this way.

With the financial burden of the new stadium finally easing, we have quietly gone about building the deepest squad in years, possibly ever,in terms of numbers. We could add another defender and a quality striker, but otherwise we are loaded. (Adding Draxler would be divine and make me smile for several weeks on end.)  Depending on what you think of Jenkinson, we have two quality players at each position, money to continue adding, exciting young talent coming through, and the club appears proactive on all levels that we can challenge the depth of talent our oil-rich rivals have tried to accumulate.

This means that the exciting run of fixtures we face needn’t be seen as a burden.  As we start to focus on the run-in, a home draw in the FA Cup appears favourable and rotation would mean games for players of the calibre of Podolski, Vermaelen, Gibbs, Ramsey and Rosicky.  After that, there is only one side left we would not be short favourites to qualify against. The FA Cup may be the least glamorous option, but it is a great chance for silverware and the joys of a cup final.  It is a shame that Theo Walcott will miss out on all this.  Whilst a run of games for Serge Gnabry has been a delight – I’m a huge fan – Theo is one of the best attackers in European football.  His pace gives us a unique dimension and his end product can win games – just check his goals and assists stats.  The Premier League is so tight that any further big injuries could be the difference, for any of the title-chasing trio.

Since the cup draw this Sunday evening, there has been a lot of talk about fixtures, but things are no easier for our rivals.  In fact, there is an immediate opportunity to maybe get some relief, with City playing 5pur2 and then Chavski back-to-back.  They also have games with Barca to distract and an away Manc derby rescheduled for the business end of proceedings,and also the CoCup final.  The Chavs have the easiest run as it looks now, but serene passage past Galatasary – does it exist? – will offer up an almost guaranteed humdinger somewhere, so that can change.  The next two away games will be crucial for us.  If we can take 6 points from Southampton and Liverpool we may just give ourselves a buffer before the bigger tests to follow.  We did just this already, building leads that nullified the impact of losing twice in Manchester – both games leaving a huge sense of ‘what if’ and Arsenal still top of the league.

We might be able to keep our lead if we can continue to be ruthless against the fourteen or fifteen weaker sides in the division.  We did this last year, turning around what had been a series of disasters through February into a convincing run-in, but one that involved home draws with a hung-over Man U and Everton, the only teams of any reputation we faced domestically in that period.  (The year before we were nowhere near as good, winning only 1 of our last 5 league games, drawing 3 and getting beaten at home by Wigan.  ‘Arry really did gift that to us and so goes the history of that shit mob, again and again.)  Last year we ground out clean-sheets. This year, the depth of our midfield options may carry us.  Even without Walcott, we can name Ramsey, Flamini, Rosicky, Podolski, and Chamberlain on our bench at the moment.  Four of those players are recently returning refreshed from injury-enforced rest.  We can always put 5 in a midfield that very few sides can control.

This season may end up being a thriller win or lose, it may be a collapse, or it may be history.  My outlook is such that I am thinking back to Arsene’s first two titles.  We were not favourites either year and in we got through both times on the back of spirit as much as talent at times.  They were great teams, but Chris Wreh scored vital goals in that first double, with a 17 year old firing in others amongst Ray Parlour’s most prolific campaign.  Stephen Hughes and Gilles Grimandi also proved match winners to start our winning run to the title.  It can be a funny old game. (Imagine playing Chris Wreh now, let alone a raw teenager, there would be a riot… Where can I back Sonogo’s goals?)

The second double may have been driven more by names that are now legends, but it also hinged on moments of grit.  Liverpool away with a shocking red-card for Gio Van Bronckhorst barely 30 minutes in will forever be a treasured memory.  Kanu put in the shift of his life that game and we were able to win, finishing the season 7 points ahead of that Liverpool side in second.  It was Wiltord and Ljunberg who scored the crucial goals over the final 6 games of that season, with Lauren pea-rolling in one of history’s great penalties with 4 minutes left to beat the Scum at home.  Neither Henry or Bergkamp played the night we won the league in Manchester. Following cup final defeats to Galatasary and Liverpool in previous seasons, that title was far less obvious at the time than in hindsight.

I am quietly bullish about our chances of making 2014 a banner year.

I have no idea how we might get there and this may all be drivel within a month, although I doubt that, but it will be a ride.  I like our chances with Ramsey, Wilshere, Özil, Cazorla blending it about.  Arsene Wenger has taken the deepest pool of attacking and technical midfield players in the country and turned them into the most solid Arsenal side since Sol Campbell took the short route to Europe and had Vieira and Gilberto sitting in front of him.  This sounds good to me.  Plus all the other teams are total  detestable .

How can we not win, it is meant to be?  Right?

Even if we don’t, we have had a do. Right?

That is my take as very happy Arsenal fan that loves to watch his team play great football.

Can’t wait for Arsene to sign that new deal either.

Peace out.

#Draxler #WhereMeDraxler

Time to go home? It’s a bit late to start enjoying yourself now, isn’t it?

When can I start enjoying the season?

Arsenal are top of the Premier League, in the 5th round of the FA cup, and have two fantastic ties in the Champions League to look forward to.

Yet every time I celebrate our position someone tells me:

“We’ve won nothing yet.”

Does that mean I have to wait until a tin cup is won before I can be happy?  Am I to be unhappy if a trophy isn’t won?  That’s a bit like going out for the night and not having a good time until you are in the taxi on the way home, just in case something goes wrong before the night is over.

[Mel – look away now, Ed]

In 1977 the still amateur-status tennis player John McEnroe made the semi-finals of Wimbledon, losing to Jimmy Connors.  Was that a failure? Was he a failure?

Or was it a magnificent sporting achievement?

If winning silverware is the only measure of success and the only time we can celebrate, then how much joy will we miss out on?

It seems to me that the fear of not winning the whole competition is stopping many people enjoying the journey.

If we manage to win the league despite the overwhelming financial disadvantage we are at, then we will be able to shout the houses down, sing , dance, make merry, gloat and taunt until our hearts are content.  However if we don’t it will not mean we failed.  We will still have made some huge forward strides.  We will have fought a gallant fight.

Every game Arsenal wins should be savoured.

Every goal, assist, attempt, all of it, all enjoyed.

Each beautiful passage of play is a moment to revel in.  A chance to appreciate the team and players.  Why miss out because of the fear that we ultimately don’t outright win a competition that is massively difficult to win?

Right now we are in three competitions and this point might be as good as it gets for us.

For goodness sake, let’s at least enjoy it while we can.

Anybody wishing to hitch a ride in George’s cab can hail him on Twitter @Blackburngeorge (prepare to share the fare, aye).

*No taxis were harmed in the production of this blog

Today’s post is by arse_or_brain

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Putting the ‘Friday’ into FA Cup

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“I think he has done a remarkable job and the one thing about him is that he has been true to himself and true to his beliefs and the one thing that has been difficult for him is that I think other clubs have abused their spending powers and indulged in what could almost be considered financial doping at times.

“He has managed that club in a truly brilliant way and he has never compromised on the style of play and what he believes and I have the utmost respect for him for that.”

No this is not a quote from our own George but from Sky Blues manager Steven Pressley, so  let’s sign him up for PA;  I’m sure his post would be very interesting.

As we go into the next round of the cup let’s first look at our opponents. Well they are eleventh in the first division table, their leading scorer is Leon Clarke with eighteen goals in all competitions, they are sponsored by Puma and they got to this point in the FA cup by beating Barnsley, Hartlepool and AFC Wimbledon.  Generally their away form is not bad with five wins and four draws from 12 games so far.

The last time we met them it was in the League Cup, in September 2012 and the score was 6-1 to the Gunners.  Coventry’s captain suggested the score-line didn’t reflect the match and really his team were overawed and the same won’t happen this time.  He also said of their fans:

 “The world will see how passionate and vocal city fans are.”

Whether the Friday evening rescheduling of the match has any affect on this remains to be seen.

I’m sure most people are aware at the moment Coventry are being forced to play their home games in Northampton because of an argument between the owners of the club and the owners of the ground and there may be a protest on Friday at the Emirates.  I hope all Gooners give that protest their support – at the end of the day we are all football fans.

As far as we are concerned the spectre of last year’s exits from the cup competitions hangs large. Normally you would assume picking a team for this fixture would be quite easy with squad players and talented members of the U21 squad making up the team; this formula has served us well over the years.

Last season we went the more Chelski route, playing primarily a full strength side and were duly dumped out of both domestic cups.

Being at home and with the standard the U21 players have set, I think we can go with our former policy and pick an exciting team easily able to cope with a pumped up Championship side and at the same time give some of our First Team a rest before our squashed February and March fixtures.

As far as team news is concerned, it looks like TV5, who you would expect to be a shoe-in for this game, will not make it, unfortunately and another player, SuperNic, who this game would prove ideal, looks like only having a small chance of making it.  We may get another a chance to see Sanago and Benik Afobe who have both been out with long injuries with the latter who is right back on goal scoring form.  Fab should be in goal with Jenks as Right Back and Poldolski and the Ox also definite starters.   

And then I’m lost.

Which first teamers are in least need of a rest and which youngsters are to be trusted I really don’t know.  Oh and then there’s Park who doesn’t really fall into any category.  Of the youngsters I would assume Hayden, Olsson, Yenneris, Eisfield, Frimpong, Zelelam and the aforementioned Afobe stand the most chance with an outside chance for Jon Toral.

Whatever the team, where ever you are this Friday night enjoy the game, and of course, COYG. 

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You can help find arse_or_brain on Twitter @arse_or_brain

A post from ZimPaul.

The role of mass media is not in any way to reflect consensus, especially a consensus that will upset a status quo and vested interests. A nod in the direction of “popular consensus” maybe, where it doesn’t matter, while all the time selecting “news” in the opposite direction to that of consensus. The role of the mass media is to reflect the interests and perspectives of the establishment, or more specifically the money order.

The stakes are probably quite high. The entirety of EPL, as a global brand, its major clubs as global brands, players, the football association, and layer upon layer of economic interest built around this, Sky being in super-league stakes, but there are many others, many forms and methods of derivative income, such as advertising, and these represent the “money order”. It’s worth many billions in annual revenues. The key individuals making the key decisions number not more than hundreds. These people and their money matter, and their perspective, shaped largely by how to increase revenues and market share, is more important than consensus. The new money is very important in this (City, Chelsea, others).

EPL is in competition with the other Euro leagues, and streets ahead in terms of global market share. The point is to maintain and improve market share. Ultimately, there might be some forms of merger over market share, if it can be shown that revenues would increase, and in which a Euro super-league would result, a decision of the market, not football, but for now its competition, and EPL rules the roost globally.

The EPL product is in one way pure marketing genius, and in another way simply a crass formula that has been proven to work; see my earlier posts. this is why it will not change, the market is essentially conservative. I may be off here and there, since I don’t actually know the formula, but the principle is correct. It’s just TV, and revenues.

One asks again then what kind of influence Arsenal, one club, representing miniscule economic interests relative to the whole money order, might bring to bear? We are also capitalists, making money and large personal incomes, sometimes fortunes, but we run a tight ship and play by the rules. We run a business enterprise, and at the same time have a great deal of integrity when it comes to respect for football culture.

And yet, this highly negative, but I think realistic appraisal ignores facts in our advantage. Popular consensus is one, and it is clearly changing fast in our favour. Another is that the EPL has powerful competitors, such as Bundesliga, who have much in common with Arsenal’s approach and highly respect us. Yet another are the smaller clubs, who will increasingly see their future, indeed their only route, by broadly adapting Arsenal’s strategy to their own situation (financially and in football) despite the money order. We are showing what can be done to bring greater equity into the equation. We are showing that the interests of football, as opposed to rampant consumerism, is not powerless. It has more leverage than it thinks it has.

Therefore, the future is with us. But don’t expect it to be easy, or comfortable. I would have thought it has already been discussed amongst a few people that a City win makes perfect sense for the future of the EPL super-brand and its global market. When Pellegrini says “we are the Real Madrid now”, I suspect he is not only talking to the masses, but to the money. Very marketable that one.

Today a guest post from Muppet (@MuppetGooner )

With possibly the tweet of 2014, Rob Ross (@gooner145) nails apparent media attitudes towards AFC

I read over the weekend that if the title race was down to media perception, then Arsenal would be 5th.

An alternative to this was if you list the top of the table, the club sitting in top place would be nameless [see above, ed].

Such is the contempt held of our title challenge in great swathes of the media.

I have lost count of the times I have heard the words “Awesome” and “Manchester City” in the same sentence.  This is a team that has never, until this season, reached the 2nd stage of the Champions League, despite having a squad worth around €450 million.  Whilst they are extolled, Arsenal are consigned to the dustbin.

On TalkSport at the weekend, Adrian Durham: “Everton outplayed Arsenal at the emirates and that was the moment everybody realised that they were not going to win the premiership”.

A co-presenter –  “Newcastle outplayed Arsenal at St James Park.”

Then a Liverpool pundit, Houghton – “Everybody is waiting for Arsenal to fail”.

He then follows up with the idea that Liverpool will step into the void.  Righto …

It gets worse.

A Chelsea fan on BBC 606 is asked about Chelsea’s title challenge.  She says:  “Well, City are looking so strong at the moment.  I don’t think we’re going to get past them.”

Then Geoff Shreeves comes out with his “2 points off City now”, statement.

These people are not alone in doubting Arsenal.  There are worst offenders out there.  Shearer for one.  Furiously backtracking on MOTD with his “Arsenal can’t win the premiership statement”, changing it to “won’t”, because he didn’t want to look like a massive twerp on national television. Then, squeaky voice Owen, who still maintains Arsenal will finish 5th.

Now, I have no trouble conceding that our opposition are pretty good. None at all, especially considering the levels of “investment” in their squad.  Since 2008 we have:

Arsenal net spend: £11.1m.  Chelsea net spend: £328.7m.  Man City net spend: £509.6m.

Want to go back further ?

Net spend 03/04-13/14: In first place in the expenditure table is Chelsea with a net spend of £585m.  Next up City net spend: £507m. Then Liverpool net spend: £198m.  And Man Utd net spend: £169m.  Then, in 17th place – Arsenal net spend: £17m.

Actually, looking at these figures, doesn’t it seem remarkable that we are top of the league?  Will we get credit for that?

No.

The media perception that we are also-rans still grates tremendously.  More so because of the media love-in of 2 clubs (City and Chelsea) who don’t appear to be playing it by the rule-book.  A 3rd major rival, Manchester United, also don’t really appear to be playing it by the rule-book, but in their case, they are becoming unstuck, as evidenced by the league table and their own fan protests at the weekend, holding banners claiming that they have a “£600 million debt to service“, before they spend anything on new players.

In defence of City and Chelsea, Martin Samuel claimed in an article within the last year that without the “investment” from them, Manchester United would be a monopoly, and how would other teams get a look in?  This is where Samuel has got it completely wrong.  Nobody has a problem with investment in a football club.  The problem here is when the line is blurred between investment by people that would reasonably secure the future of a club, where risks have to be taken within economic constraints, and that of the kind made by Chelsea and Manchester City, where no economic rules apply in a standard business model.

Everybody knows what City and Chelsea do when they don’t win the title.

They simply go out in the transfer market in the summer and spend a minimum of £100 million, and change their manager. There is no risk attached to this.  If they fail, they will go out and spend another £100 million.  This was Abramovich’s response when Arsenal won the title in 2003-2004.  This was Mansour’s response last year when City lost the title.

But hardly anybody in the media will speak out against this.  Arsenal fans who quite rightly express outrage at this, are quizzed as to why we don’t join the party, which makes it doubly insulting.  The witch hunt engaged against Arsenal on TalkSport, in certain quarters, should instead be turned on City and Chelsea, asking how is it fair that 2 clubs can get away with such abuses, at the expense of all other clubs in the premier league who are trying run a football club and living within their means. The media instead, embrace the situation, which of course they will, as they know which side of the bread is buttered.  Speak out against it, and you will probably not have a job for very long, as Sky and others have massive vested interests.  Just talk up the circus, and paint the like of Arsenal fans as sanctimonious, with sour grapes.

But this is not sanctimony.  Samuel’s accusation of a monopoly, to me, should be turned on its head.  Instead of a monopoly, what we have here is a cartel, 7 or 8 super-clubs in Europe, who will dominate the landscape, and others will have very little chance of winning league titles and the champions league. When I grew up, a lot of teams were in the mix.  Here, and abroad. Villa and Nottingham Forest won the European cup.  That brilliant Everton side in the mid 80s won the European cup winners cup.  Even Spurs won the UEFA cup!  European teams such as Hamburg, Red Star Belgrade and Dynamo Kiev added to the plurality.

The current situation? I don’t have to work very hard to predict the dominant forces – Bayern, Manchester United, Barcelona, Real Madrid, PSG, Manchester City and Chelsea.

It is not for the good of football.

Today’s article is by Dyllan Munro 

Must try harder – the man who, in his first season, has created a league-leading number of chances for his new team …

You may think the heading refers to increasing tensions in the Middle East caused by an unstable Syria, uncompromising Israel and levels of sectarian violence not saw since the last Old Firm game.  Perhaps you suspect it refers to America’s inability to stop school shootings or Britain’s apparent acceptance that class structure is forever ingrained and inescapable. You may suspect I’m talking about the rise of One Direction or the fact that Splash! somehow got re-commissioned for a second series.  The matter to which I am actually referring is the stupidity of some Arsenal fans.

Not the section I’ve previously railed about in my own blog that is dismissive of foreign fans and believe you’re only a true Gooner if you’ve battered a policeman outside Highbury.  The section concerned is those who seem to be terribly dismissive of our own players. The same people who chanted to “spen’ saam faacking munee” are now questioning the influence of Özil, of Mesut F**king Özil fame.

It’s this blatant abuse of the freedom of expression that makes me think that perhaps it wouldn’t have been that bad for the Germans to have won the war after all.  They had their faults, the Germans, but they never accused Özil of being rubbish.  In all honesty I initially assumed that the people criticising our talismanic German weren’t fans watching the games, but rather individuals craving attention that had decided they’d grown tired of issuing death threats to Bieber haters.  I then witnessed people that I knew to have full control of their cognitive processes voicing, albeit quietly, the belief that perhaps Özil wasn’t all he was cracked up to be.

This drew my attention because either:

a) People I knew had been killed off by a shady organisation and replaced by idiots

or

b) There may be some basis for the opinion that our £42.5m signing (the biggest in our history, 2^nd biggest in Premier League history and the record ever paid for a German) was a flop. 

I acknowledge that while watching games it can be very hard to focus entirely on one player so I cast aside my impressions of Özil based on watching him and had a quick perusal of the ol’ stat book.  After examining these details and combining it with having watched all Arsenal’s games I came to the conclusion that all those people were tragically afflicted with ignorant fucknugget disease.  In all seriousness it’s got to the stage that it’s probably just best for humanity to start over.

 If we ignore the fact that it is Özil’s first season with us – and to be honest there’s no reason why we should – then he has still done fantastically well.  In our 22 league games so far Mesut has featured in 17 of them, missing 3 at the start before he was signed and 2 in the Christmas period due to a “shoulder injury”.  He has created 51 chances for our team, which equates to 20.4% of our overall chances.

That is the highest total for any player in the league, if you’re interested.

He has also scored 4 goals which is surprising given his preference to pass even when on the opposition goal line. While some may criticise this total David Silva, Samir Nasri, Fernando Torres and Frank Lampard all have the same amount. He also has a shot accuracy of 83% as well as a passing accuracy of 88%. Mesut also boasts 7 assists, second only to Rooney in the charts.

If we compare him to Rooney, Nasri & Oscar who have all played well for their respective clubs this campaign we find a similar narrative. Özil shot accuracy 83%, Rooney 54%, Oscar 48% whilst Nasri has 59%. Özil pass accuracy 88%, Rooney 80%, Oscar 82% whilst Nasri has 90% with 82 fewer attempted passes than Özil.  Our Germanic talent also has the most key passes out of the quartet.  Whilst not particularly relevant, Mesut has yet to be booked in the league, demonstrating our team’s discipline whilst the others have 3 with the exception of Rooney who has somehow managed to accumulate 7.  God knows how, then again some of those referees have grandmothers…

I prefer not to use stats as a sole argument as they can be misleading and they definitely don’t tell the whole story.  I have been assuming though that you watch the Gunners play and can therefore draw on your experience of watching Özil play.  His movement both on and off the ball frees up space for our other players in a way that almost no one else manages.  He is one of the most talented players at finding space between defence and midfield, and as Thierry Henry said:

“It always seems like he has time on the ball.”

He is equally adept at drawing defenders away to open space for team-mates.  Mesut is well aware that if he makes a run, no defender or defence-minded midfielder is going to leave him open if they can prevent it and he uses this to benefit the team.

The real problem is the mind-set in England.  I’m not referring to the pessimism of Arsenal fans where a negative must be found to even the most positive of situations, or the heckling of a player new to the league, country, culture, cuisine, team-mates, manager, atmosphere and system of play.  I’m talking about the image of a blood and thunder style footballer ingrained into your national psyche.  An England fan will forever hold dear the hard men of old, the Butchers and fellow walking wounded.  Jack Wilshere even referenced it a few weeks ago when talking about national teams saying that:

”Spain are technical but you think of England and you think they are brave and tackle hard.”

It’s why a player like Kompany has built up such a strong reputation because all his actions are powerful and full of energy.  His ferocious displays full of bravado and fortitude help to mask what have been increasingly glaring deficiencies in his game.  It’s also why it has taken so long for a player like Mertesacker to garner the praise he deserves.  He won’t make these lunging last ditch tackles as he has already positioned himself in such a manner that those extremes aren’t necessary.  His determined positioning and reading of the play couldn’t be further from a John Terry-style lunge or goal line clearance which the fans so love to see.

Mesut finds himself in that category.  His glidetacular style and apparently relaxed play is foreign to those who love to see Rooney barge his way past defenders or to see Wilshere drop a shoulder and go past three.  Özil isn’t the sort of player to dribble past the team and smash it into the net nor will he ever be.  He was bought to augment our style, apply the finishing touches to our Emirates masterpiece.  Instead of dribbling past them Özil dissects the defence with a pass or lures defenders with a shoulder feint. We bought arguably the most clinical passer in the game, with the most assists in Europe over the last 5 years.  I’m sure that Arsene knew what he was buying and what to expect.  If it didn’t match some fans expectations that is their own faults for having poorly constructed pre-conceptions of what Özil would be.

Özil still has some adapting to do in the league, that’s an indisputable fact.  The pace of the play and ferocity of some of the smaller teams isn’t matched in the previous leagues he has played in.  There is also more of a burden on him here as he is the undoubted star player whereas before there were plenty of other candidates to that title.  However Özil will only improve with familiarity especially as other players return from injury.  The rest of the league is in trouble when he fully blossoms.

I’ve been Dyllan Munro, thanks for reading and be sure to comment.  You can get me on Twitter @GoonerDyllan if you fancy a chat.  Thanks everyone.

Today a guest post by  Alastair Brookshaw  @albrookshaw

A recent (somewhat transparent) PR drive by the Glazers has seen talk of a £100, or even £200, million war chest being made available for floundering David Moyes. But if that’s true, it will signal a marked change in United’s transfer policy over the past 5 years.  Manchester United are one of the English Premier League’s big spenders.  They have one of the highest wage bills in the league and have one of the most expensively assembled squads in the country. But despite all this, their transfer dealings in the last few years have had far less in common with the mega-rich, oil-funded clubs than they have with the work of the most famous penny pincher of all … Arsène Wenger.

Where’s The Money?

When United splurged £30 odd million on Dimitar Berbatov in 2008 it was simply a show of the sort of financial muscle we had come to expect from them. An already talented squad was being topped up with a world class, top-price signing.  It was the sort of purchase that had kept United at the top for season after season.  But nearly 6 years have gone by and United haven’t made a signing like it since.

A look at their dealings in 2009 sums up a general theme that has held true ever since: we see a mixture of ‘youth with potential’ and slightly underwhelming ‘mid-range’ purchases.  So in came Pogba, Mame Biram Diouf, Obertan, Michael Owen (on a free) and Valencia.  2010 read even more like a ‘Wenger window’: Smalling, Lindegaard, Bebe and Hernandez.  A year later: Phil Jones, De Gea, and Ashley Young, and so it goes on.

This is the team that spent £30 million on Rio Ferdinand in 2002.  Think for a second what an equivalent purchase in 2014 terms looks like. It’s certainly not Chris Smalling for £10 million! Robin Van Persie may have been a marquee signing in many ways, but in terms of cost even he was still very much off the M&S shelf rather than Harrods.  Would they have got him for £50m with 4 years left on his contract? The evidence of the past 5 windows suggests not.

‘Doing A Wenger’… Not So Easy Apparently

This period has also been one in which Fergie’s reputation truly soared above Wenger’s.  While Arsenal scrambled for 4^th place and famously failed to land trophies, United somehow remained at the very top, despite the extravagant spending of the oil-enhanced teams, and even as their squad appeared weaker and weaker.  There can be no doubt that Fergie’s final trophies were an extraordinary testament to his will to win and his ability to wring every last drop of talent from the players at his disposal.  I have been predicting their downfall for at least 2 or 3 seasons and each time have been left astounded at his ability to challenge for title with the squads at his disposal.

However, if last season is a testament to Fergie’s greatest strengths, then this season is surely highlighting some of his failings.  In particular, it offers the clearest evidence yet that even he might have struggled with the task that Wenger was set just under a decade ago.  If this was Fergie building a squad ‘on a budget’, it is another reminder of how impressive the job is that Wenger has done in since the stadium move.  After all, Wenger didn’t have the luxury of relying on the greats he had assembled during the good times.  Part of his task was to sell off the Invincibles – and later stars – at the best price he could get for the club.

By contrast, last season the league was won primarily by the United squad that Fergie had assembled at huge expense over the years preceding 2008.  With the notable exception of Van Persie (and I suppose if we’re being generous De Gea) there is not a single ‘post-Berbatov’ signing who can be said to have been truly instrumental.  Fergie may have had to sell Ronaldo and offload Tevez, but a comparable situation to Wenger’s would have probably seen them without Giggs, Scholes, Vidic, Ferdinand and Rooney last season.

So Where Have United Gone Wrong?

I’m being fairly kind to Fergie by likening his budgetary constraints to Wenger’s.  United may have tightened their belt in relative terms over the last few years, but they are still one of the richest clubs in the world.  And some of those average players still cost a considerable amount of money.  Jones, De Gea and Ashley Young may not have been star signings, but they still amounted to over £50 million spent.

Whilst Wenger certainly made some missteps with his cheaper signings, in the ‘mid-range’ bracket he has blown Fergie out of the water.  Since 2009 United have spent approximately £120m on: Kagawa, Zaha, Jones, De Gea, Young, Smalling, Hernandez, Bebe, Valencia (9 players).  Compare that to (over the same period) £90m on: Podolski, Giroud, Cazorla, Monreal, Oxlade-Chamberlain, Arteta, Gervinho, Mertesacker, Koscielny, Vermaelen (10 players).  There is of course the anomaly of Van Persie being available for £22m, but otherwise, player for player the gap in quality is pretty astronomical, as is the gulf in cost. And that, of course, is the period in which Wenger was slowly allowed to loosen the purse-strings. Imagine Fergie having to live by the budget Wenger did in the 5 years from around 2005.  If his period of ‘austerity’ since 2009 is anything to go by, it might not have been at all pretty!

So What Does It All Mean?

If you’re a Manchester United fan none of this makes comfortable reading.  Arguably it hints that Moyes won’t have anything like the war chest that is being reported in the papers – surely a factor in their failure to land any of their main targets in the summer. (Perhaps it also explains why Moyes was the first choice for the job in the first place? He is, after all, a man with a reputation for keeping teams competitive on a tight budget.)  And should they fail to reach the Champions League next season those budgetary constraints will only get worse (particularly as one can only assume it will have a knock-on effect on their celebrated commercial revenue).  Sure, there will always be money available – the money they wasted on Fellaini in the summer proves that – but, unless their spending policy for the past few years has been some sort of clever ruse, I don’t think Moyes will be able to spend his way out of trouble as easily as some would have you believe.

As an Arsenal fan it is yet another reason to re-evaluate the last 8 or 9 years of ‘failure’.  Fergie is rightly considered to be one of the greatest managers of the modern era and yet even he has struggled to build and improve a squad under financial pressure that is minimal, compared to the constraints Wenger was under, in the early Emirates years.  Unlike Wenger he was under no pressure to sell his ‘big guns’ so still had enough quality in his squad to keep winning trophies, but the overall impact is now being felt.  Many of those players – Vidic, Ferdinand, Scholes, Giggs, Evra, Van Der Saar – are either recently retired or on the wane and suddenly this season we are presented with a vision of what United’s squad might have looked like if they had had to tighten their belts to the extent that Arsenal did.

It also offers a vindication of Wenger’s care in the transfer market, especially at higher prices.  If one cry has been most common amongst a certain section of fans it has been:

“We understand we can’t afford Messi. That’s not what we are asking for. Just buy top quality players in the £15m-£30 mark.”

I’ve written elsewhere that, unless you’re careful, some of the worst value in football is in this category, and United’s transfer list post 2009 shows how easy it is to waste your money.  The usual suspects are still moaning that not all of our transfer kitty was spent in the summer, but it would only take two or three ‘Fellaini-style’ missteps for that money to disappear down the drain very quickly.  There is, of course, an irony that the same people moaning about it are the ones who have been most critical of our ‘deadwood’ in years past.  As another transfer window progresses, perhaps it’s time for some of those critics to start considering just how many times Arsène has got it right and they’ve got it wrong!

A Classic Mistake (Bayern Munich 0 – 2 Arsenal, 13th March 2013).

I am told all the time “In the last 8 years Arsene has made mistakes”

Normally I reply with one of my two stock answers:

A) “No shit Sherlock”

or

B) “Perhaps, but not as many as someone else would have,and not as big as people might think”

It’s a little like basic maths.

If you ask  the question:  “What does  2+2 =  “,  you can confidently answer “4“.

However  the question in Arsenal’s case should be:  What does 2x+2y=  ?

Then unless you know the values of x and y, you can’t give an answer at all.  If you still say 4, well that makes you either something of an idiot or a fortune teller.

People ask questions and reply to them with the answer they believe is correct.  But as they don’t know x and y, how can that answer be taken to be correct.

The problem now is that some of the answers given to questions, answers that were taken by many to be correct, are being shown to be incorrect.

Will Arsene ever buy superstar players?   Old answer “NO”, new answer “YES”

Can Wenger make us competitive again? Old answer “NO”, new answer “YES”

Does Wenger do defence?  Old answer “NO”, new answer “YES”

Can Wenger change tactics mid game?  Old answer “NO”, new answer “YES”

Are these players Arsenal class?  Old answer “NO” new answer “YES”

So if you want to ask questions like: “Was it right to stick with Almunia ?”  and your answer is other than: “I don’t know, because I don’t know the facts or circumstances at the time”, then its the wrong answer.

“Could we have spent more money and sooner?”  The answer should be: “Perhaps, but I don’t know what the long term plan was”

In short then, if the answers to questions you asked have changed, it’s because you were wrong before.  So don’t assume that other answers you still believe to be correct will remain that way.

The fact is that no one has enough information about long term plans and finances to make the assumption that either Arsene or the board are wrong.

Seriously, ask yourself this every time you question Arsene, the board, tactics, formations, player purchases or abilities.

“WHAT ARE THE CHANCES OF ME BEING RIGHT AND THEM BEING WRONG ?”

I could answer it for you, but that would be rude.

Up the Arse.