75 Comments

What if Arsenal Has Given Up On Top 4-Permanently ?

 

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Before I go into my suggestion, let me say that is all it is. I’m not saying this is the case, or even that I believe it’s the case, only that its possible. I’ve used some things we know (facts), some things we have been told (hearsay) and some speculation and fully accept the latter two categories can be easily dismissed with other hearsay and speculation. I’m not asking anyone to accept the premise, just don’t dismiss it before you have considered it.

Firstly, there have been studies that prove an 85% correlation between spending and success, across all mayor football leagues Let me repeat that “studies” STUDIES, not my opinion. So if you are looking at it from a business/investment angle, you would conclude to have better than a 15% chance of regularly being in the top 4, you would have to be in the top 4 spenders. Well we are not We can not come near the spending levels of City, United and Chelsea. That leaves one spot, and Liverpool are spending much more than us to secure that spot. In simple terms, to get the 4th spot regularly, we have to outspend Liverpool. But outspending them we are not.

What  then if Arsenal have decided that the cost of chasing this top 4 spot is beyond what they want to spend? What if on a business level they have decided 5th or 6th is the way forward?

In the last couple of days we have learned that Stan Kroenke is the 100% owner and all trading on Arsenal shares has stopped. I am told that all his other sports businesses do not spend on the levels to “compete”. So why will Arsenal be different?

We know that we have been out of the top 4 for two years and we are told that it’s unlikely we will be back in it this year (I believe we could by the way), and yet our the club’s value is at record levels and we have moved up in the list of most valuable clubs. Also , despite no top 4, we have negotiated record sponsorship deals.

So does it make business sense to spend at levels that will increase the debt burden (It’s already the 2nd highest in the league behind only MUFC in the hope we might get CL football. ? It might not you know?

We know Ivan Gazidis is leaving. Many people find that hard to understand after all his efforts to bring in a new regime. What if he has been told that we will not be spending at the required levels and doesn’t want to be blamed?

We were told Mikel Arteta was going to be our new head coach we have been told Gazidis favoured him and we have been told that Arteta decided against it because he would not have been given the money, he felt he needed, to compete.All of what were have been told could be bollocks, but what if it’s not?

We have been told that previously a 4 year deal was offered to Aaron Ramsey, which he had accepted,and now we are told that offer has been removed and Arsenal “are not in a position” to proceed. Well what if that is because Arsenal have decided not to pay CL wages because we won’t be in it, and they have accepted not being in it?

If Arsenal have decided not to chase top 4 on business decisions, all of this makes at least some sense?

The problem is we as fans don’t want to think of football as a business. We don’t want to accept that City and Chelsea have bought our place at the top table. We rail against the studies that prove a massive correlation between spend and success, because we don’t want it to be true. We do not want to see the club we love and the game we love become more like Monopoly. But that is how it is now.

I liked this

 

There you have it then, Its a disturbing thought that I wish I had never had……………..Sorry

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75 comments on “What if Arsenal Has Given Up On Top 4-Permanently ?

  1. Welbeck also likely to leave at the end of the year. I feel he deserves to be a starting CF for a team and there’s also a great prospect in Eddie ready to be third choice striker next season. Although he a popular player as far as I can tell, not a club legend. Yet! Who knows what could happen in one or two cup finals heh, but at the moment the prospect of him leaving isn’t the same.

    Liked by 1 person

  2. I meant supportive in relation to his lengthy absences and retention regarding his fitness A. While he (apparently) recovered from the lower limb fractures caused by Shawcross for season after season after his return Aaron would play for a few games then be out, injured, for another handful of fixtures with vague hamstring calf knee soft tissue etc restrictions. Then he’d be back, then out, then back and on and on. Patience with injured players who presented with those same non specific problems, which probably reduced their potential playing by half , Jack, the Ox, Theo, Gibbs, and on to Rosicky, Diaby, and even the extensions given to Per and Santi, were part of the culture at AFC. And probably only at AFC.

    Liked by 1 person

  3. Thanks Fins – And Welbeck, and Jenks and I’d guess a hard fitness tape measure may be run over Kosc this Autumn.

    Liked by 1 person

  4. If Welbeck were to come on in what will be a difficult and challenging contest tomorrow I expect he’d have a positive impact. I speculate that the new gaffer will want to start Rambo tomorrow, and who knows he may feel it’s a game for Welbeck too.
    Miki showing flashes of his best form in recent games, if Iwobi stays clear of serious injury he’ll continue to grow, both providing interesting options. There’s plenty of cover in the squad, experienced cover in Miki. if Welbeck moves on.

    I resigned myself to Ramsey moving a while back though who knows the whole story may be the start of a public haggle. I wonder how the new CM will get on against Watford. Sokratis also finding his rhythm after several games, I can understand why indsideright would like to see him start at RCB as his passing out from that side was impressive. Will Watford press Mustafi?

    It’s a big game.

    Liked by 1 person

  5. Well, Andy, were is the operative word there. I suspect with the departure of AW, Arsenal is not that kind of club anymore either. So I don’t imagine that plays into the decision for him.

    Liked by 5 people

  6. What a liked about the dead leg that Sokratis picked up was that he allowed his opponent to hit him/run into him, almost an obstruction but best described as taking his opponent down, as opposed to snide and genuinly “lazy” maiming or kicking of an opponent.
    Xhaka prefers the trip usually but he’s been making some, um, good fouls of late too.Though to me it’s the new CM who looks like he’ll be the new (Dark) Prince in Central Midfield and truly fill the gap left by not just Coquelin but possibly also Arteta in the squad. Other prospects are even more inexperienced at this moment.

    If you’re wondering Cazorla was of course the Sorceror, Özil the Assassin, Mertesacker starring as the BFG alongside the Berserker Koscielny, etc. yes that was quite a good and apparently completely flukily well balanced team/squad.

    Huge test for this rebuilt squad tomorrow. Looking forward to it but as with the Everton game, they have too many good players for it to be anything other then a tough match.

    Liked by 1 person

  7. < The keepers in that squad weren't too shabby either, two of them one two golden gloves and an FA Cup between them and two more won one FA Cup each. Blimey. What. A. Shambles.

    I think the blaggers might have taken the "why is a legend of European football like Peter Cech not instantly dropped by any self-respecting coach after the arrival of a new player at a club like The Arsenal" meme off the menu after the midweek game.
    I also agreed with the many comments on Cech made here midweek, there appears to be some politics required at the club in the wake of Ivan's great moment, cheers Ivan, but I'm going to remain hopeful that the crowd won't boo Ramsey tomorrow (who am I kidding this is gonna be like Adebayor all over again, with the blaggers earning pumping their share of the spoils hard) and optimistic that he re-signs in January/February and that recent stories are all just a part of the wonderful world of sports communications, which I guess is exactly what they are so I should clarify, just a move to the long expected public haggle phase of this negotiation.

    Liked by 1 person

  8. Pedantic George is so grumpy…I love him

    Liked by 3 people

  9. I’d enjoy the sight of Torreira and Ramsey in Central Midfield together against City. Could happen in some games down the line but Xhaka is almost the first name on the team sheet for Watford! If Ramsey stays AFC have a strong midfield that can cope with the demands of CL & PL football next year, just sayin’. Makes so much sense to keep him…

    Liked by 3 people

  10. Did someone mention Rosicky? The Torturer of Tottenham. Any player who returns after such a long lay off to mark his personal stamp on multiple occasions upon the glorious history of the neighbours is also a club legend.

    He kept on running and got his reward.

    Liked by 2 people

  11. “anicoll5
    September 28, 2018 at 10:14 pm”

    I don’t think it was just about culture – those were good players when fit and we were hardly in a position financially to kick them to the curb and get replacements of equal or better quality at the time.

    Emery has not been hit by a big injury crisis yet, so let’s see how he copes when that happens.

    Liked by 3 people

  12. George is unto something, I fear. Unlike the click-baiting blaggers, who are frequently in cahoots with the agents and other parasites trying to ripoff Arsenal (thanks Finsbury), the majority of us understood how miraculous it was for Wenger to keep us in the top-4 for 20 yrs straight especially after the advent of Roman Abramovich and sometime after Sheik Mansour. They were firing £50 across the lawn of Highbury while Wenger had a BB gun firing pellets.

    But Wenger was able to con the big spenders and snaggle from under their noses some of the greatest talents ever and if they hadn’t been, turn them into world class players. Fabregas, Nasri, Rosicky, Ozil are examples but to my mind the greatest steal of all was the magician, the sorcerer from Spain, Santi Cazorla. In 2014-15, I was one of the first to blog that Santi Cazorla was the Most Valuable Player at Arsenal. Without him, even with Ozil, I suggested we would never challenge for the title. Regretfully, when he went down in 2016, not only did we fall out of the top-4, but if you look back with hindsight, it marked the end of Arsene Wenger’s reign. 5th then 6th and Ivan and the Board got wobbly. Most of all the blaggers and their idiot supporters refused to give Wenger time to rebuild; filled with hubris that a new manager would mean gazillions in spending to buy Arsenal’s way to a title.

    But along the way,something funny happened. Kroenke decided to buy out all other shareholders and to take the company private. Now he is under less pressure to placate minority shareholders with the appearance of being one of the big spenders. Oh no. Now he and his advisers are focused on preserving wealth and growing his investment without taking inordinate risks. I once wrote a blog for PA saying if Tottenham fan Adele could buy the biggest house possible then Kroenke could buy the biggest possible ranch. Well he bought the fucking ranch indeed and no matter how much noise Piers Morgan and company makes it will mean diddly squat. The only man who could convince Kroenke to spend big to regain the top-4 is gone and i would advise him never return until the club hits rock bottom and on their knees.

    As George opines, apparently the club’s minimum goal is 5th or 6th, not fourth as under Wenger. That isn’t rock bottom despite all the predictable moaning and groaning by the blaggers as well as AFTV and their followers. Kroenke will make money without spending Champions League wages. I predict the fuckers will soon be dying for the good old days of Wenger.

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  13. George is unto something, I fear. Unlike the click-baiting blaggers, who are frequently in cahoots with the agents and other parasites trying to ripoff Arsenal (thanks Finsbury), the majority of us understood how miraculous it was for Wenger to keep us in the top-4 for 20 yrs straight especially after the advent of Roman Abramovich and sometime after Sheik Mansour. They were firing £50 across the lawn of Highbury while Wenger had a BB gun firing pellets.

    But Wenger was able to con the big spenders and snaggle from under their noses some of the greatest talents ever and if they weren’t, turn them into world class players. Fabregas, Nasri, Rosicky, Ozil are examples but to my mind the greatest steal of all was the magician, the sorcerer from Spain, Santi Cazorla. In 2014-15, I was one of the first to blog that Santi Cazorla was the Most Valuable Player at Arsenal. Without him, even with Ozil, I suggested we would never challenge for the title. Regretfully, when he went down in 2016, not only did we fall out of the top-4, but if you look back with hindsight, it marked the end of Arsene Wenger’s reign. 5th then 6th and Ivan and the Board got wobbly. Most of all the blaggers and their idiot supporters refused to give Wenger time to rebuild; filled with hubris that a new manager would mean gazillions in spending to buy Arsenal’s way to a title.

    But along the way,something funny happened. Kroenke decided to buy out all other shareholders and to take the company private. Now he is under less pressure to placate minority shareholders with the appearance of being one of the big spenders. Oh no. Now he and his advisers are focused on preserving wealth and growing his investment without taking inordinate risks. I once wrote a blog for PA saying if Tottenham fan Adele could buy the biggest house possible then Kroenke could buy the biggest possible ranch. Well he bought the fucking ranch indeed and no matter how much noise Piers Morgan and company makes it will mean diddly squat. The only man who could convince Kroenke to spend big to regain the top-4 is gone and I would advise him never return until the club hits rock bottom and on their knees.

    As George opines, apparently the club’s minimum goal is 5th or 6th, not fourth as under Wenger. That isn’t rock bottom despite all the predictable moaning and groaning by the blaggers as well as AFTV and their followers. Kroenke will make money without spending Champions League wages. At this rate I predict the fuckers will soon be dying for the good old days of Wenger.

    Liked by 4 people

  14. Mandy@7:41
    Agreed to some extent that we had players who were allowed to run out there contracts but I think they are very few in terms of numbers if we take 20 years of Wenger’s regime.
    To be fair with Wenger he either sold them to make big bucks for the club (PV TH, Nasri, Rvp,Cole,& a few others,) or kept them for the rest of there carereers ( Bergkamp, Cazorla, Rosicky) .in my view his both policies brought good for the club. Apart from RVP sale to Manu we did nt lose in terms of money or our league position or benefitted our rivals in the subsequent years. Rather we had the chance of Re signing Fabregas after he left Barca. So all in all Wenger’s dealing in transfer market had been a success story.

    Liked by 1 person

  15. Shorts great post at 2:52
    Completely agreed re cazorla the magician. In fact we we’re unbeatable with Santi at the pitch. Though with the arrival of Ozil we got the winning touch but the teams heartbeat was always Cazorla after Cesc left.
    The bottom line is that Wengers eye for talent was immense. From strikers like Wright, TH, Rvp, and midfielders like PV.,Pires, lujnberg, cesc, rosicky, cazorls and ozil to Gks like Jens, Scezny wenger brought the worlds talent to the Emirates for us but the moaners and blaggers along with pigmob and media had there agendas.

    I still wish we keep Ramsey as the last diamond of Wengers developed golden generation who has been a loyal servant for the Arsenals.

    If Ramsey goes I doubt we can get 5TH or 6TH this year .Top 4 will be a bridge too far for sure.

    Liked by 2 people

  16. Little extra reason to hope for win today is the Deeney factor. Man is here there and everywhere in media at the moment, palling it up with Wright and others. May have to take an axe to the fuse box in the event of a win for them.

    What does it say that the two current players most keen to talk to the media, and welcomed so enthusiastically, are Adam and Deeney?

    His latest admission ,by way, on radio with Wright and Sutton, was that Watford players targeted Zaha and agreed to take turns fouling him. Also boastful almost of how he thinks he can manipulate refs. Maybe he should get some almost credit for honesty. Most teams do it, even and maybe especially those of Sir’s.

    Still, it feels like it should be an embarrassment and provocation for refs- ‘trying to gain a big advantage through foul play and circumvent the rules while doing so, are you? Right then*’- and yet if anything it is more like the opposite a lot of the time.

    One for my theory on how Deeney types and extra fouls and aggression are viewed by many, albeit rarely with full consistency, as part of the football culture here; with referees liable to see their role as being a part of and an upholder of that football culture, as opposed to using the rules at their disposal to try and punish and stop foul play wherever they can.

    * that should, quite obviously, have been the frame of mind Riley was put into early on in game 50. It sure wasn’t.

    Liked by 3 people

  17. No mention so far of the Gazidis statement of 3 (?) summers ago that the future make up of the first team squad was 50% home grown and 25% brought in from other academies as teenagers. If players like Ramsey, who are looking for what will probably be their last top level contract, do not leave then we cannot fulfill that strategy in the near future. Maitland-Niles looks to me like a direct Ramsey replacement and Eddie will step in to replace Welbeck when he goes.
    Where that will place us re final position in the league will depend as much on the fortunes of others. Liverpool have been spending big because they also sold big. Chelsea could change tack if Abramovich throws in his money laundering towel. Spurs are already hog-tied by debt. We have close to zero net debt and will be in a very good position to pick up on the remaining 25% of established stars needed to make up the full squad.
    Don’t forget also that UEFA want to introduce another European competition – top four may be less relevant in the future anyway.

    Liked by 1 person

  18. Hopefully our legendary injury crises are behind us Pass. The move to the Ems coincided with an explosion of long term and repetitive injuries among the players which was never really explained. The contrast to the almost perfect fitness record of key players in AWs early years was bizarre, although it may have been our choice/necessity to buy younger stars.

    Liked by 1 person

  19. New post up

    Liked by 1 person

  20. I don’t know if I’ve missed it, but I’ve not seen anyone comment on the exodus of most of our regular squad Brits; Gibbs, Walcott, Ox Chamberlain,Wilshere plus Ramsey most likely to go and Danny perhaps. Players out on loan: Nelson & Chambers hopefully (but guaranteed) to return.
    Is a pattern developing here?

    Liked by 2 people

  21. (but NOT Guaranteed)

    Liked by 1 person

  22. The famous brittle bones of that weakling Sagna.

    Eh?

    Liked by 1 person

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