By: Shotta, @shotta_gooner

 Sports journalism is renowned for clichés that are repeated ad hominem by its practitioners as a substitute for substantive analysis.  It is my observation that that these rhetorical tricks are successfully used because they contain an element of truth which is undeniable. But, more times than not, the assorted hacks and pundits who are supposedly sharing with us these self-evident “truths” are also trying to conceal a lie.

Take Tony Gale, for example, who was doing color commentary on Sunday for my tv feed; just prior to Theo scoring his hat-trick, he was complaining the game showed how much AFC needed to go into the transfer market for world class players, while Walcott and Wilshere, who had just returned from injury, were ripping WBA to shreds in a world-class performance. Yes, every team could do with a world class players but Tony Gale failed to tell the truth, i.e.  Arsenal had very little need to go to the transfer market. On Sunday the lie was immediately exposed, but unfortunately most times it is left unchallenged, leading many to form the wrong conclusions and ultimately to choose a self-defeating course of action

Notwithstanding the instant rebuff of Tony Gale, with the League just ended, I now expect the hacks and their fellow travelers, to use our standing in the league table to form a narrative that Arsenal needs three or four world class transfers. This was famously previewed three-weeks ago by our own Titi Henry from his well remunerated perch on Sky Sports, conveniently reversing his prognostication two weeks earlier. But Henry is not alone in phalanx of famous ex-gunners with the same mantra. In the run-up to Sunday’s  last game of the season, Ray Parlour said the very same while on Talk Sport alongside Adrian Durham, the latter having made a media career by trolling Arsenal supporters.  By the way, Durham’s current windup is that Arsenal did not improve over the past season.

According to the hacks, Arsenal, by finishing 3^rd in the table, made no significant improvement over last year when they finished 4^thwith 79 points (troll-time on Talk Sport). Chelsea supposedly made much more progress by adding 8 points to last year’s total to win the league. Ergo, the solution is to follow in Chelsea’s footsteps by signing a “world class” forward, midfielder and goal-keeper.

In my day, one of the earliest lessons in high school mathematics was “how to lie with statistics”. Actually it is how to lie with data. By conducting the most elementary analysis, i.e. by comparing the changes in league position of the top 6 of 2014 with that of 2015, unearthed some very revealing information.  Take a gander below.

 Chelsea achieved a 10% improvement in points by realizing 2 more wins (8% gain). A 67% reduction in losses was split between 2 draws and 2 wins. Yet according to the pundits they smashed the League.

Arsenal in contrast had a similar reduction in wins vs Chelsea’s gain but the reduction in losses only showed up in the draw column. We all know the points-allocation in football prioritizes wins. As for the suggestion that the defense is horrible and the goalkeeping porous, there were 9 or 18% less goals conceded over the prior year. The goal difference improved 30% second only, percentage-wise, to United.

City ‘s demise from 1^st to 2^nd was due to 11% less wins.  The raw numbers would suggest a marginal change of two losses and one draw but the numbers identify the key deficit was in goal-scoring which declined by 19% and their goal difference down by 31%.

The most alarming change in fortunes was on Merseyside. Liverpool is the headliner. To the acclaim of a raft of pundits, many with connection to the club, they splashed the Suarez cash on an array of transfer targets hyped by the media, most notably Mario Balotelli whom they are now quick to disown. A 30% reduction in wins, 100% increase in losses, 48% reduction in goals scored led to a 26% reduction in points, second-only to Everton.  The latter club’s demise was just as catastrophic with 38% less wins and 100% more losses, leaking more and scoring less goals. Yet Roberto Martinez was tagged by the end-of-an-eraists as a Wenger successor.

Finally Manchester United, who won the 2014 transfer sweepstakes, spending £170million on the likes of Falcao, DiMaria (remember him?), Blind, Rojo and Herrera, but only improved by a single more win over the Moyes era. At least they had 36% less losses but turned 3 out of 4 into draws. The end result was a gain of 3 positions in the table. Maybe another £170 million will get them to 1^st, failing which they might do a Liverpool.

There is a lot more one could do with this data but I leave that to the readers of PA. Already there is a barrage of mischief and misinformation at large by those trying to discredit the current squad (Giroud, and Ospina seem the favorite targets) and the progress being made by them and Wenger to become truly able to challenge for the title. With rare exceptions the pundits fail to acknowledge that we were handicapped by injuries at the start of the 14-15 season and not by a lack of talent.

But as one other cliché put it: figures never lie, liars figure.