A guest post from @foreverheady

The autumn of 2012 was an interesting time for The Arsenal. The three new signings, Olivier Giroud, Lukas Podolski and Santi Cazorla were settling in quite nicely, but their arrival early in the summer, initially greeted by the fans with some degree of enthusiasm, did little to compensate for the disappointment felt when both Alex Song and Robin van Persie left the club for what, to them, seemed greener fields elsewhere.  The first few results seemed promising: despite successive nil-all draws suggesting that Giroud wasn’t quite the replacement for RvP some had hoped for, a comprehensive win at Anfield with goals from the other two new boys and a display of poise, power and grace from Diaby suggested that the season might turn out well after all. A thrashing of Southampton and a hard-earned away point against Manchester City confirmed the promise, and, albeit prematurely, some were talking of a title challenge. However, and especially in light of the two afore mentioned departures, one particular cloud hovered over the horizon. Theo Walcott, who had been with the club since he was 16, and now surely entering his most productive footballing years, was entering the final stages of his contract, and as yet had not put pen to paper to commit himself to the club for another term.

As autumn gave way to winter the mood around the Emirates darkened too. A number of poor results saw the team slip down the table, injuries (especially to Diaby) began to take their toll and an embarrassing League Cup exit on a frozen Bradford pitch seemed to suggest that the stadium project was nothing but a white elephant, draining the club of money, players and hope. The vultures were circling, and Walcott was the prime target. Not many would have bet heavily on him staying at the club with the January transfer window about to open. Much was made at the time over his desire to play centrally, but I think there was more to it than just positional preference. Money came into it, of course, but also I think a desire to be central to the plans of the club – and also a need to know that the club was worth being central to. Just after Christmas he got his wish to play up front as lone striker in an astonishing game against Newcastle, and he answered those critics who suggested that he lacked the physical presence and skill set to be a Number 9 with three fine goals: the first a Henryesque finish from left of centre into the bottom far corner, the second a predatory effort in the box, the third an exquisite chip after an audacious solo run. 7-3 the  score line, and as he acknowledged the applause with a solo lap of the ground after the final whistle it was impossible to know whether he was saying goodbye to The Emirates or just revelling in the moment. I felt sure he was off. Only he will truly know, but I suspect he could not have failed to be moved by the warmth of his reception and the love the crowd had for him.  But much to my surprise in mid-January, sign da ting he did, and for a while he must have wondered what he had done.  Defeats by City and Chelsea, a premature Fifth Round FA Cup departure to Blackburn and then an away defeat to Tottenham saw the Gunners fortunes, while not quite at rock-bottom, at least feeling suspiciously much like it. We trailed Spurs by seven points, we were about to be knocked out of the Champions League by Bayern Munich, confidence was low and a season that had started reasonably optimistically was threatening to unravel.

Except it didn’t. Changes to the defence tightened things up, and Theo started to fire on all cylinders. A ten-game unbeaten run in the league, inspired by vital goals from him, saw The Arsenal secure fourth place on the final day of the season, breaking our neighbour’s hearts into the bargain. I suspect we may never properly know quite how important a placing that was, how seminal Walcott’s strikes were. What we do know is that by denying Tottenham Champions League football they found it impossible to stop Gareth Bale from leaving them. And we also perhaps know that because Real Madrid needed to fund his purchase, they made Mesut Ozil available, and that The Arsenal were able to step in and buy him. Inspired by that acquisition the Gunners played some brilliant football at the start of 13/14 and went on, of course, to win the FA Cup as well as finishing comfortably ahead of the chasing pack in the Champions League spot again. More top signings followed those successes, with Alexis being the most notable, and despite a horrific injury crisis in the first half of 2014/15, third place in the League and another FA Cup triumph suggested that whatever assurances were given to Theo back in January 2013 about the direction of the club, they were very much on the money.

The irony of course, is that since the club signed Mesut Ozil, Theo has been almost permanently injured, and so we have yet to really see the full flowering of a relationship that I believe could become one of the most potent and formidable in the history of the game. Walcott possesses electrifying pace, a fine footballing brain and the predatory instincts of a natural born goal scorer. He is articulate and well-mannered, but also ultra-competitive. He is also appropriately ambitious and has it within him to become a legend for both club and country. His career thus far has been interrupted by a whole series of niggling injuries, and at times he has seemed just a little bit frail. However, after suffering what could have been a career-ending cruciate ligamentinjury in the Third Round FA Cup defeat of Spurs back in January 2014, he has shown admirable fortitude in not only fighting his way back to full fitness, but also returning noticeably more solid and robust.There is a bit of bulk about him now, a real physical presence. All credit to him, but also the medical team and the manager for resisting the temptation to bring him back too soon.  It seemed to me entirely fitting that he should have scored the opening goal in the 2015 Final, and I hope he felt it just reward for his patience and fortitude.

So when people talk about all the new strikers we might buy, I just feel glad that we have on our books someone who has already scored over 50 goals for the Club, is a proven International and is still only 26. In the few games he has played with Ozil, Alexis, Cazorla and Ramsey he has shown signs that he could add quite significantly to that tally. Indeed, I would not dissuade anyone from having a few pennies on him ending the season as the league’s leading goal scorer, as long, of course, that he continues to play for The Arsenal. I like to think he will, for I believe his best years are yet to come, and that he is, in many ways, the vital cog in our attacking wheel.  I also believe that it was his decision to stay three years ago that reminded everyone that although a few rats may have left, the Arsenal ship was far from sinking. I suspect the manager is more than aware of all of that, and that he has a special regard for him. After all, he did pay more than Five Million to Southampton when Theo was was only 17, a not inconsiderable fee back in 2006. While it would be fanciful to claim that Walcott plays Potter to Wenger’s Dumbledore, I cannot help but think of him as the boy who stayed. After all, I am often told that Arsene wears a magic hat….

A guest post from @foreverheady

Meaningless methadone it may have been and for the manager and team no doubt a low stakes game, where getting fit and building up gently for the rigours to come was the main priority. And yet Arsene would have known that it was also a game that the team was expected to win, and win well – and that the right result would do much to build momentum and confidence. It was a useful, risk free game for the critics too: a win would be treated as all that should have been expected and that counted for nothing, while a stumbling draw or embarrassing defeat sure signs that the team was lacking the key personel so obstinately ignored by the out of touch manager.
But as things turned out, something rather wonderful emerged from a game which certainly exceeded my expectations – and given that this was the third time in a row that this has happened it is perhaps time to start taking it seriously. In the final game of the 14/15 League season Arsenal needed a point to secure third place in the table, their charge towards second spot having been derailed by two disappointing home results (with no goals scored each time) and a lacklustre point at Old Trafford. West Brom at home was a nice way to finish the campaign, but there were plenty saying that if we couldn’t break down the Swansea and Sunderland defences we would struggle to do so against a Pulis team. To add to the interest the following week’s Cup Final ensured that players would be anxious to make a last claim on a starting spot, while also remaining injury free. Arsene rested Giroud and started with Walcott up front and in an astonishing display of free flowing football Arsenal scored four goals, with Theo bagging three. It was breath-taking and the WBA defence was shredded. Much the same happened at Wembley: once again Walcott started centrally; once again the team scored four with Walcott the first scorer.
Fast forward seven weeks or so to the game yesterday, and Walcott was again a central attacker, although this time paired with Giroud in what looked suspiciously like a 442. I have to say it didn’t come as a total surprise to see Theo open the scoring, but what was slightly unexpected was the fluency and sharpness of the team, who seemed to pick things up exactly as they had left them at Wembley. At times the Everton players looked compleley bemused by the speed and trickery of their opposition, and if you haven’t seen the game I urge you to find a recording of it somewhere. Cazorla, Ozil, Ramsey and Wilshere were unplayable, the stretching runs of Walcott almost impossible to predict. This was football of the highest order, football that no English club has produced for some time – and as I say, it was the third time in three games that it has happened. Yes, it was only a pre-season friendly (although before the game I was told Everton would provide a stern test). Yes, Aston Villa were poor (although before the Final I was told that they would be awkward opponents). Yes, the Baggies played as if they were already on the beach (although before the game I was told they would be resolute and well-organised). And yes, harder games lie ahead and we won’t always have it our own way (thanks for pointing that out because I would never have thought it, wet behind the ears that I am).
But given the evidence of yesterday, you would be foolish to think anything else than this side is transforming into something rather special who play football in a most unusual and next-level way. Any new signings will have to fit into this new evolving pattern – and, of course, help it evolve still further. These are exciting times to follow The Arsenal – and yes, it is only pre-season, but if you can’t be optimistic and excited in July, then you really have no business being a fan at all.

A guest post from Tim ( @foreverheady )

“If you think you have more than one Derby horse in your yard, you haven’t got a Derby horse.” So went the advice given by an eminent trainer sometime last century and you can see the logic. To win the most prestigious prize in racing you needed something exceptional, and the chances of having two exceptional colts at the same time were not only unlikely, but also suggested that neither possessed the true hallmark of a great champion, that restless inner fire that dominates all opposition.  Times have changed a bit of course in the racing game, with expensive bloodlines the preserve of only a few owners, and top quality congregated in a handful of yards. The global expansion of racing has played its part as well, and with operations like Godolphin or Ballydoyle now seeking to compete on a variety of fronts a proper squad of equine talent is needed each year for a season to have any chance of being deemed a success. Winning the Derby is no longer the only mark of greatness. Nevertheless, the search for a real superstar that not only dominates his own generation but those before and after remains compelling – and, of course, extends far beyond racing and is true of all competitive sports. It is certainly true of football, and much fun can be had comparing the games greats: Pele or Best, Cruyff or Maradonna, Messi or Ronaldo? They are all different, but what each seems to have in common is the ability to dominate and stand head and shoulders above not only their own team mates, but also the opposition. Single-handedly they change the course of games, tournaments and seasons: we recognise them when we see them, not just because of their sublime skills, but also because of the aura of greatness that surrounds them – their own personal force fields, if you like.

I often find myself thinking of the Derby horse idea when I hear people debating the ideal Arsenal starting XI. Should Giroud or Walcott start up front – or should it be Welbeck? Where might Ramsey and Wilshere play – and where does that leave Cazorla and Oxlade if Ozil and Alexis also need to be shoe-horned into a midfield that needs at its base Coquelin or Arteta or Chambers.  Should we play Gibbs or Monreal, Debuchy or Gibbs? They can’t all play, but does the fact it is so hard to say with certainty what the best team is mean that the reality is that while the players are plenty good enough, not many, if any, are really great? And does that also mean that unless the manager can pull off a masterstroke this summer and sign a world-class superstar, we are destined to spend a season competing well and playing nicely – but not quite winning a trophy.

Well possibly, but if it applies to The Arsenal, it applies to many other teams too. Partly because despite a number of very competitive teams,there are only two serious prizes in English Football (although I have noticed in recent years the very top clubs seem to be claiming the League Cup as a valuable achievement as well) and of course the Champions League for the top four – and partly because there aren’t that many real game changing superstars floating about waiting to be signed. In fact, there is an argument that says any club that is too reliant on just one galactic player is actually quite vulnerable, even if they do occasionally produce extraordinary results. I can only think of two in recent years – Bale and Suarez – who have individually made a significant difference, and it is telling that once they left both Liverpool and Tottenham slumped. The chances are that had they encountered injury their clubs would not have been easily able to sustain whatever challenge they were spearheading – and rival teams would have been very aware of that. The performances of Messi for Argentina and Ronaldo for Portugal have at times been less than spectacular, which also suggests that well-organised teams full of very good players are capable of nullifying the threat posed by ordinary teams that possess only one real star.

But what happens when you add a brilliant player, a genuine worldy, to a team full of really good players? Surely that is the ideal scenario, and I am sure it is what all managers aspire to. City would love to sign Pogba, Chelsea Bale, United Cavani, and I have little doubt they are trying their hardest to do just that, just as Arsenal will also be doing their best to find another Alexis, if such a thing exists. But even this approach comes with its own health warning, because the balance of a sports team is a delicate thing and the only predictable thing about human nature is its changeability. I don’t know this for sure, but it appears that the arrival of Bale at Real Madrid has caused problems that now seem so obvious with the benefit of hindsight. Ronaldo has seemingly not enjoyed the prospect of playing second fiddle, and Bale has found it hard going from a situation where everyone was trying to pass to him to a state where it has almost seemed as if the players were finding reasons not to do so. You could argue a similar situation has occurred at United recently, where again it appears to an onlooker that Rooney is only happy when he is the undisputed star attraction. Ferguson perhaps knew this, and side-lined him in favour of Van Persie, but left the new manager, David Moyes in the impossible situation where he either had to sell Rooney or integrate him: since Ferguson retired Rooney has outlastedMoyes, Van Persie, Falcao and Di Maria, and it will be interesting to see how the coming season pans out at Old Trafford. My instinct says not well.

Arsene Wenger has been around top, top players for a long time now, and I would argue that no one in the game has a better understanding of the surprisingly brittle egos of world class and epoch defining superstars. I think this is why he has developed the notion of team-play to such an extent, and why he so admired the style of the Barcelona of old– and indeed, the way they are playing now, albeit in a slightly more direct and pacey way. It does not mean he is not looking for superstars (despite what the media would have us believe)  for he has signed or made enough of those over his career, but it does mean he is very aware of finding the right player.  A player who will augment the team and help develop the talents already at The Emirates, as well as providing breath-taking moments of unique brilliance. And he also knows that he needs a squad that will compete on a number of fronts over a succession of seasons, rather than looking for a one-season wonder who might provide an instant hit for sponsors and fans but who could upset the balance of a painstakingly assembled team – a team who showed towards the end of last season just what they were capable of, if remaining free from unusual and unprecedented patterns of injury.

So tempting though it is for me to secretly hope that Bale might harbour a desire to return to a better part of North London, or that Messi might feel his career incomplete without a spell in England, I know that these things won’t happen – and that it is probably best if they don’t. I am all for the pursuit of excellence and admire long-term planning, but unlike a Derby Winner, it is not as if you can breed future superstars from the girded loins of a Mertesacker.

The simple truth is that being a football fan is more about emotion than it is about logic. We want what we want and for most it matters not that what we want is a fantasy. We have a romantic notion of how our club should perform. We all think our club should be “taken to the next level”. This is not an Arsenal thing, you hear fans from most clubs saying the same thing. And when they don’t get this “next level” they blame others for failing to achieve their dreams for them.

It’s the players to blame, or the board, or the hapless manager. It’s never their lack of acceptance of reality or their unrealistic expectations. Oh no, and, as many fans feel the same and think the same, they have a consensus.

People seem prepared to ignore any reality that means that their happiness is unlikely to be realised for them by their club.

Let’s look at some of the things Arsenal fans are happy to dismiss in order for them to justify their demands, and let us consider whether these demands are reasonable or not.

We use history (we are the 3rd most successful team in history) yet ignore the recent history of how the game has changed. History is no more what happened in the thirties than it is what happened yesterday. It’s all history. But there are turning points and we are affected by recent turning points more than we are of ancient ones. And let’s be honest here, if it happened pre-war then in football terms, that’s ancient history, almost prehistoric.

In 1992 the advent of the Premier League changed the landscape. If you don’t believe me, ask any Liverpool fan. Their history had them as default league winners, they haven’t won it even once since and are hurtling farther away with each year and new signing. But they still benefit from that history in that they have a huge domestic and overseas fan base that brings in money through commercial deals. However, as each year passes this fan base will likely grow at a slower rate than their rivals and their historical advantage will diminish, much like that of Villa or Forest. So we can see that the further back in history we look, the less relevant it becomes. That’s why George Graham is more relevant than Herbert Chapman.

In 2003 Roman Abramovich bought Chelsea. Another turning point. A total game changer for teams like Arsenal and Liverpool who were hoping to challenge for honours. Rather than me trying to explain it, here is an article written and researched by a Liverpool fan:

How Chelsea Ruined Football

Read it and weep.

In 2008  Sheikh Mansour bought Manchester City and brought with him the £500 billion sovereign spending power of Abu Dhabi.

Now in simple terms if you accept Manchester United were top dog and in a class of their own on spending power, then these other two bought into the top table. So all the history that Arsenal and Liverpool had was bulldozed out the way by huge wads of cash writing its own history.

The next bit of history that we have to consider is Arsenal’s move to the new stadium, with all the restrictions on team building and maintenance that brought. This subject has been done to death and if someone does not accept that in this period we were miles behind then I am not about to address their stupidity today.

Then recent history works in our favour for a change. Financial Fair Play had some effect and the long term commercial deals we were tied to ran out and we were able to make big strides. The short term loans on the stadium were repaid and we found ourselves more able to compete for top players.

Please note how I said “more able” because no matter that we are better off, if the others are still richer we are still at a disadvantage. All be it less so.

People who say we now have enough money to compete, ignore the fact that, actually, we don’t.

For example, let’s say Real Madrid buy Aguero and that frees up Benzema. First off all there will be an absolute bun fight for his signature and some of those fighting for it will be able to offer more in fees and wages than Arsenal. Now remember that he was sold because he is not Aguero, not Messi or Ronaldo, not Suárez or Neymar, but the level below that. So even if Arsenal got him we have not caught up, not by a long way. And yet people insist we should be competing with the teams that have the real top drawer players. I simply ask “why is that then?”

This is the argument I like best: “We should be better with scouting, fitness and tactics”. 

These people seem to have forgotten that all these avenues for improvement are open to every club, and more open to clubs with more money.

So again I ask: “Why should Arsenal be the club that excels above others in these fields?”

Well I will tell you why. It is because we are unreasonable and illogical.

Recent history has made it very hard to catch, let alone pass three clubs in England. In Europe it’s just the same. Almost every year the richest clubs win the ECL.

It’s not a coincidence you know?

So ask yourselves: Are Arsenal failing to achieve, or are they just failing to achieve your unrealistic expectations?

If your argument is “we should be doing better” I will counter that with the suggestion that perhaps we are where we should be, given the history.

Now, having said all that, I expect us to compete with the very best next year, both domestically and in Europe.

The thing is though, I won’t be squealing and stamping my feet if we don’t and blaming others for not achieving my own personal expectations.

Pedantic George ( aka @Blackburngeorge )

Last night I read again a blog written by @AFC_ChrisGooner “Arsenal putting pieces in place for future success” http://bit.ly/1QpmfXr  .I have read it several times now and it a fabulous piece , well written and researched. Having read it I then tweeted

People didn’t see a plan not because there wasn’t one, but because they were unable to comprehend its enormity. Silly people.”

I expected the usual replies. you know the ones .“We were lied to . we could have done more, we should have done X, we should have bought Y, mistakes were made blah blah blah” . But to my surprise very few like that were forthcoming. So either people now accept they were wrong and the improvements are now so obvious that they can’t deny them or perhaps people are just happy and are prepared to forgive the perceived acts of negligence by the club?

I suppose the problem for many is that their ambitions are tied to the club. They are basically asking someone else to be ambitious on their behalf. The Arsenal board, and by extension Arsene Wenger are responsible for their personal ambition. An odd state of affairs and somewhat unique to football fans who in real life think that tweeting while sitting on the toilet is ambitious.

Still, I digress.Back to last night. I then got a reply that I believe is the single best tweet I have ever seen.

@Blackburngeorge “spend some fucking money!” ringing around the stadium the club spent £400m+ on. You couldn’t make it up.”

Brilliant. I rest my case.

The internet is awash with bloggers pod-casters and tweeters quickly changing tack and realigning themselves behind Arsene.

Gone are the days when someone was brave enough to voice their wholehearted and unequivocal support for the great man. Now you can’t mention his name without someone trying to praise him above and beyond the level of praise you express.

Twitter is full of the few remaining WOBs duking it out with former WOBs.

Most of those that were respectfully asking for Arsene to go have climbed onto the fence and are willing to let him stay (Bloody decent of them, eh?). You can hear them with their “I’m softening towards him” or “I will wait and see if the improvement continues“, some even begrudgingly concede “I might have been harsh on Arsene“.

Those who previously had splinters in their backsides, from sitting on the fence, are shuffling into the “I support the manager” camp and looking for a place to pitch their very portable tents.

Of course there are still some WOBs remaining. These though are looking more and more like Ishmael , clinging to a coffin that is bobbing among the wreckage of their sunken arguments. And why not? What is their alternative? Admitting they were wrong in the most disrespectful and ignorant manner? I think not!

Now this sounds like I am complaining. That it shouldn’t be happening. That I don’t like it or want it. Wrong.  It’s great that more and more fans are appreciating the stellar work of the manager, staff and board are doing. I love it. Climb on board. The more is the merrier.

But let’s be honest here. They are not changing for any other reason than the team is improving and things are being won. They have not been educated to this new level of support. A few bad results will likely see them once again slipping their stilettos into the backs of people who have consistently been transforming the club for years.

People that have seen the light, should be asking themselves why they have been sitting in the dark for so long? There is nothing happening that could not have been foreseen by anyone willing to look.

Players were sold – the reasons were obvious.

Great players were not bought – the reasons were obvious.

We were not winning trophies – the reasons were obvious.

We couldn’t beat the best teams – the reasons were obvious.

The priority was CL qualification – the reasons were………….. you guessed it………….obvious.

Everything the club was working towards was obvious.

They had a plan………………….obvious.

They were smart enough and resolute enough to stick to it………………..obvious.

The plan was way beyond the comprehension of many fans, yes, but that didn’t mean there was no plan.

I always found it ridiculous that the most ambitious club in the country should be labeled by many of its own fans as unambitious.

Even now though we see fans trying to justify their previous stance with claims of “Arsene has changed“.  The alternative is them owning up to being wrong, stupid and uninformed.

Arsene has not changed. All that has changed is his credit limit. His philosophies have not changed one little bit. What has changed is the standard of the players he now has to put them into practice.

People begrudgingly admit the plan is working, while still thinking that they had a plan that would have worked better and quicker.

Unlike the doubters and disbelievers, there were some people, a precious few to be fair, who for years predicted exactly what is happening right now. Not because they are seers and prophets, but because they understood the plan was sensible and it was being implemented by experts, not the least of which is Arsene Wenger.

So, if you are someone who is either overtly or covertly changing you position, please just hold your hand up and accept you seem to have been wrong, rather than trying to justify your previous stance. Because, as they say Ignorance is no defense.