It is amazing how far we as human beings, including us football fans; will go to deny reality, specifically to deny facts that do not conform with our deeply held beliefs. Denialism is a very common element of human behavior and is defined by the psychologists as:
“…a person’s choice to deny reality, as a way to avoid a psychologically uncomfortable truth. Denialism is an essentially irrational action that withholds the validation of a historical experience or event, when a person refuses to accept an empirically verifiable reality.”
The problem however with calling anyone or group of people a denialist is we are all guilty to some degree or other. After all denial is a psychological defense we all use at times to reduce our anxiety when reality feels particularly disturbing. Short of being clinically diagnosed as suffering from paranoia or delusional disorder, we all have the impulse to be denialists.
Unfortunately most human beings refuse to accept we are all psychologically inclined to act irrationally. That is why the majority will always be victims of those forces in our society who happy to take advantage of our irrational fears and anxieties and our impulse to retreat into denialism.
In some of my previous posts (most notably Fear And Despair vs The Arsenal) I used the example of the stock market to highlight how Arsenal fans, in particular, are emotionally manipulated by the media to believe the club is on the verge of disaster, despite an unmatched history of consistency in the Premier League and the consequent massive growth in the fanbase during the Wenger era. As a result many fans, perhaps a majority, have the irrational belief that a self-sustaining club like Arsenal will somehow achieve better results by getting rid of arguably their greatest manager ever.
Yet it is almost an absolute certainty that Stan Kroenke will never pursue the “sugar-daddy” model to compete with City, Chelsea and United. Furthermore, as long as the club grows organically and the value of his investment increases, there is almost zero probability Stan will sell his majority stake to Usmanov or, for that matter, to the Chinese vultures who no doubt are circling in the hope of acquiring a flagship PL club to add to their portfolio. If Arsenal PLC was a liquid stock on Wall St, the professionals, who profit by betting against human psychology, would never tire of taking money from the lemmings who sell whenever the media is unanimous that disaster is near.
That was a somewhat long-winded introduction to my main subject which is the denialism when it comes to the facts I have unearthed and published re PGMOL referees. Despite the data and accompanying statistics which show a historical pattern of bias against Arsenal in Penalties-Against, there are a multitude of naysayers who pooh-poohed my findings as if they were the exception and not the rule. One wonders if they would be satisfied if, someone had the wherewithal run a parallel PL league on a neutral planet with neutral referees using VAR and testing whether the distribution of penalties for was correlated with a club’s league ranking.
Not having those resources, I decided to test my hypothesis of bias by observing whether the average number of penalties awarded was in any way correlated to league standing in the PL. Surely it is reasonable to assume that the best ranked teams get the most penalties and vice-versa. If there is such a correlation, does Arsenal’s average penalty count correlate with its average league position?
When the data is mapped graphically, we get a downward sloping graph from left to right which indicates the average 1st placed teams get 6 penalties per season and the 20th placed teams are down to just 2.6 pens. Obviously it is not a perfect slope. There is a lot of noise in the mid-table from 5th position downwards. This is partially explicable by the fact that these clubs are very inconsistent from year-to-year in contrast with the consistency of the historical top-4. But the pattern is unmistakable; over time, there is a negative relationship between league position and the average penalties a team earn.
To prove my point I did a statistical test to verify whether there was any correlation between the two variables. According to the Spearman test, (the data covers the past 11 PL seasons) there is a 84% correlation between average league position and Penalties-For. On the contrary, while Arsenal averaged 3.5 in the league between 07/08 and 16/17, there is only a 40% correlation between Arsenal’s league position and the penalties it has been awarded, a more than 50% difference from that of all PL clubs. This is a disparity which in my opinion cannot be justified by glibly saying Gooners are “making excuses”, “picking on the refs”, etc. This is a significant chunk of data spanning 11 years and covering 418 games. Something stinks and it is getting smellier.
Needless to say, the mainstream media and the major Arsenal bloggers, refuse to analyze and publicize the freely available data which reveals the PGMOL to be thoroughly biased and unfit for the purpose. By keeping quiet they are not merely in denial, they are very much aiding and abetting a corrupt, faulty system of officiating.
One wonders if the same PGMOL refs will be allowed to make the final penalty and offsides decisions when VAR is soon introduced into the PL.
Do football fans really believe that after making such a big show of using VAR in the recent Carabao Cup matches, the PGMOL and its allies in the football Establishment will meekly give up their power to influence games? If you do, then surely you have taken permanent residence in the State of Denial.
Positively Arsenal 
Just to play devils advocate for a second, one of the contributing factors has to be that we neither dive in the box, nor are our players prone to “making a meal” out of challenges and rolling around pretending to be in pain. Our players don’t try to fabricate contact in vardy-esque fashion by running in front of someone and suddenly stopping to get clobbered over, or by sticking their leg into the legs of the defender. Naivety or class? I say the latter.
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Quite right Santi – I’d prefer we never to win another game of football than allow a player like Hazard or similar to pollute the club. I fucking loathe him.
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@santi cazorler
spot on boss.
Arsenal plays the gentlemans game.
They dont dive and clobber linke Young ,Ali and Sterling (with due respect to the English readers at PA)
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Some transfer window this is going to be!!!!! I think once the dust settles we could be looking at once of the most if not the most active transfer windows ever.
Le Coq gone
Walcott gone
Sanchez more or less gone
Giroud to go???
Even Welbeck being courted though I think it would be a stretch if he was to go
Auby coming in is not bad business and Mkhi if he plays to his potential is a class player. I dont know much about this Malcom fellow but I hope he is the new breed Brazilian ala firmino if we sign him
Maitland Niles seems to be the replacement for Le Coq which I cant complain about but I feel we need a top notch defensive midfielder and a class defender. I though Evans would have been a good stop gap for a season or two as we definitely have problems at the back. So I am surprised that there is not much talk of a defender really but on the other hand Holding and Chambers are getting some valuable experience. They do need to take their chances though as in todays win at all cost philosophy I am not sure if they will get many more chances.
A full strength team with the rumored new signings would certainly give us something to shout about
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So apparently this is the abusive and improper language Arsène used that hurt poor Mike’s feelings >
Rob Harris Verified @RobHarris
“You’re not honest … you’re a disgrace” What Arsene Wenger said to referee Mike Dean to get his touchline ban
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It’s starting to look like we won’t get rid of the little so and so after all.
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why you say that foreverheady
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That is a bit annoying I can’t get the link but just google “The FA v Arsene Wenger – 5 January 2018 – Football Association” and the pdf link comes up for the full document.
I liked these bits though;
“8. Mr Wenger continued his aggressive tone and went on to say ‘you’ve done this to us
many times before. You’re supposed to be professional, you’re a disgrace’.”
“15. The Regulatory Commission considered all of the evidence presented and ruled there to be a number of critical points. It is accepted that Match Officials at all levels have a difficult role as do football managers. However, Mr Wenger, as per his written
statement, is an incredibly experienced football manager. He has occupied this
position since 1996. This is his second Misconduct Charge within a twelve-month
period. Whilst arguable, it is not accepted that there is ambiguity of interpretation in
the language used based on English not being Mr Wenger’s first language. There is
simply no justification for this behaviour.”
Shotta – do your stuff
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Arsène: “you’ve done this to us many times before. You’re supposed to be professional, you’re a disgrace”
* There is simply no justification for this behaviour.
That sounds like tone policing to me.
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So the ‘French Frank White’ went into the Ref’s room spitting fire
The West Brom Safety Officer had to escort him out of the room.
Either that or he thought Mr Wenger would damage the foundations of the stadium.
“Damn it feels good to be a gangsta”
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Jesus, Ferguson should have been banned for life, instead they cowed and obeyed him.
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FH @5.39
Robson was easy pickings compared with Riley.
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reports that Jack has agreed a new contract, basic pay lowered, but add on clauses would see him get a big pay rise, all about him staying fit.
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http://news.arseblog.com/2018/01/column-arsenal-are-transfer-experts-angry-fans-need-to-calm-down/
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Obviously I don’t know but player for player deals always seem unlikely to me – which is why I sense we will be stuck with Alexis until the end of the season.
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And I find Theo leaving inexplicably sad.
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Theo and Le Coq leaving are my saddest so far i think
cos I missed DB10, but he retired also i was torn between annoyed and sad for Robin
..
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Thank you Shotts,
But you know full well that those calcs showing the earth spinning around Sol are not really accepted by some.
Eratosthenes may have stuck a stick into the ground to prove the concept with an acceptable and useful degree of approximate accuracy with the aid of a Measuring tape a few thousand years ago, but did he consider that the Sun is much closer to Earth and in spite of all observational evidence to help that the solar rays do not in fact travel in parallel lines? That the curvature you see with your own eys from the window of the aircraft is in truth an optical illusion?
At least the above is what a flat earther tried to inform me as we sat in a former factory built with Northlights around about a hundred years ago, same time as the famous World Series scandal or the intriguing promotion of AFC the top division, designed to bounce and filter those parallel non divergent lines of indirect sunlight into a nice spread for those trying to see.
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I don not choose to believe that AFC are the only team in the football league whose players aren not always falling over.
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We’ve seen some strong evidence (Wonga) to indicate that many in football agree that Ozil, Sanchez (and Cazorla!) are up there if not consistently the best footballers in this football league over recent weeks and months. Yet the club spends peanuts compared to the others! That is: remarkable.
I would suggest that the football has been ok, Sanchez’s scoring record in his time burns a hole through the arc of frustration comfort blanket. Yes could’ve been better after we lost Cazorla, fortunately that’s been long understood here, Shotta was an early worrier over the lack of PL experience and relatively young age of the new CMs.
Defintely better football then Sunderland’s!
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< Evidence in recent weeks: transfer tittle tattle etc. All the big clubs bidding for a (great if mental) player who isn't even the best footballer at the club etc.
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Any of you lovely Positivistas going to the game this Saturday? Your truly has secured his ticket and would be happy to meet up pre-game…
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I am GP and was planning to perhaps have a drink pre game – Steve is a fan of the Eaglet in Seven Sisters Road so I was going to give that a try – I plan to be there about 1.15-1.30.
If not I am in Block 2 at the game – where are you sitting?
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Folks, like to think if I really applied myself I could make full sense of this latest Uefa money report, but I’m lazily hoping one of you lot can do it for me!
Some are already enjoying getting in shots at the club thanks to the bit about us charging fans most (doubt even that is entire story) but the real news in the report clearly seems to be the impact of rising sponsorship and commercial deals.
Basically, it shouldn’t be possible to hammer us on ticket price and demand we spend more and match the ‘ambition’ of those whose commercial income is far ahead of ours (or who self-finance through billionaires,etc).
The figures, if anything, highlight what was already well known- at the very highest level the importance of match day income to overall income has diminished. Money there is more important to us than it is to the richer clubs
I suppose that could lead to an attack on us for not matching all comers commercially, or lament our type (the non-spending) of billionaire. But even that, if done fairly, wouldn’t produce any devastating criticism.
But no, they’ll be selective, ignore this and that very pertinent point, and so instead we are : greedy, incompetent bastards, fleecing the fans and content to make money, etc. Our extra few million from match day income should presumably see us competing with the very highest spenders…. despite their overall income being far ahead of ours.
A feast for the malcontents. Wright, Merson and maybe old Henry will prob have to join in.
http://www.espn.co.uk/football/blog-uefa/story/3350742/sponsorships-enlarging-financial-gap-below-top-clubs-uefa-study
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Ha, right on cue. Shameless, these bums.
http://www.dailymail.co.uk/sport/football/article-5276621/Arsenal-fans-pay-mediocre-returns.html
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Nobody forces them to buy the tickets. If it’s not value for money they should just stop buying. Why the outrage? Because outrage is where the money is at! It’s the new social currency. I’m sure they could all negotiate multi million pound sponsorships much better than the professionals at Arsenal.
As for the commercial income. These things surely go in cycles. When Arsenal signed the deal with Puma, I think it was the largest shirt deal at the time. So now it’s been exceeded. It’ll probably come back to a higher level once the current deal runs out (though probably less than ideal levels if we don’t make CL) Also, maybe we could have more commercial deals, but these same folks will then undoubtedly complain about Arsenal just being a corporate entity and not a football club.
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Well my friends, the deniers came out in full force on twitter last evening. Very interesting the various specious arguments used to rebut the cold hard facts. As Arsene would say, “I was up for the fight”. According to twitter stat this was my most telling punch:
“Why does Arsenal get statistically less penalties than its peers over the past 11 years? If not referee bias what then? We don’t dive enough? We don’t cheat enough? Doesn’t that lead right back to the refs who are not refereeing honestly and encourage dishonesty.”
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Anicoll
Area 112, entrance East Stand Turnstile H
See you both in the Eaglet on the Seven Sisters Road…
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See you on the day !!
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Shotts, you remember that there was almost a similar reaction almost a decade ago when i first posited the objective (and not subjective) understading that VARs was an inevitablity for Football on an online football forum.
That it would happen whether any of us wanted it or not: The creeping delay in it’s arrival was the only topic ever worth any discussion, if that!
On the oblique differences between this delayed model and all other sports, the officials appear to not give **** about the fans in the ground or even elsewhere hence the lack of any communication? Do they not care about the sport? Asking for a friend…
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According to the Indian programmer I once had a chat with back in the day Twitter was essentially created to generate revenue from data for advertisers, which is fair enough – at least that was how he was making his money.
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Apparently “we deserve to know what’s happening” – (in the transfer window)
Careful what you wish for
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Dim Tim siding with Dean over Wenger, he is a piers morgan wannabe
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Based on our history, I find it very hard to believe we will be signing more than 1 (if any) player in January, and even more so difficult to believe it will be such high profile names, regardless of the circumstances.
That said, would love any and all of the 3 names thrown around. A surprise turn of events would be most welcome.
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It’s official https://www.arsenal.com/news/theo-walcott-joins-everton
I feel a bit sad about it
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sorry to see Theo leave, but understand why it was time for him to go. He was clearly no longer in the frame for a best 11 spot. Injuries hampered him badly, first the operations on both shoulders to fix a congenital problem, and then when he was really flying that knee injury. His goals, (a member of our select 100 club), his assists, 2 cup final goals, and 2 cup final winners medals, and how he really was a big game player, he has scored or assisted against all of the biggest teams he has played against, mean he should be remembered fondly, and we should never forget that he was a model pro, never a bad word, no hissy fits, no bad press, no whinging when not in the team, and no blaming team mates on or off the pitch.
Best of luck Theo (except when you play v Arsenal), and I hope you make the world cup squad too.
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Ramsey now the longest serving player at Arsenal. Just ahead of Jack Wilshere
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I still got love love for Theo, like Gibbs
But it was time
Good luck Theo , I’m sure he will score goals.
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From what I can see Miki doesn’t really want to come, Malcolm won’t be allowed to leave this window and Auby will go to RM if their serious about him.
We have made two spaces in our squad with Debuchy likely to follow so I can’t really see us making space if we weren’t confident of getting at least one player plus a Sanchez replacement if he goes.
As usual we won’t know until we know even if the media and ITK’s think differently
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thing AW has a press conference re CP game, in the morning, we should get some info on state of transfers in and out
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Saka and Okoflex amongst 10 Arsenal youngsters given scholarships; six released
by jeorge bird
Arsenal have made their decisions on their intake of first-year scholars for next season, with ten players being offered deals including talented winger Bukayo Saka.
Saka has been one of the standout performers for Arsenal at U18 level this season and has scored four goals in ten league appearances, while he has also provided two assists.
Exciting attacker Armstrong Okoflex, who has been capped by the Republic of Ireland at youth level, is also being retained along with goalkeepers Arthur Okonkwo and Tom Smith.
Midfielders Stan Flaherty and Joshua Martin, who featured for the U18s against Leicester City this season, have been offered deals, as have two more midfielders in Ben Cottrell and Alfie Matthews.
Another midfielder, Matthew Dennis, is also being kept on, with Ryan Alebiosu also set to extend his stay at the club.
Six players have been told that they are released, the majority of whom are defenders. David Agbontohoma, James Matthews, Ismail Diallo, Samuel Okoye-Ahaneku, Bertie Valler and Sam Elwood all fall into this category.
As is always the case, there is a possibility that some of the players who have been released could still be offered deals at a later stage, while those have been offered scholarships may decide to move elsewhere.
Miguel Azeez, Yunus Musah and Hubert Graczyk, who have been called up to the U18 squad this season, will all still be schoolboys next campaign.
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I am a bit with Ian here – but would also add that in my (admittedly fairly brief) experience of watching Arsenal transfers we seldom sign those who are so openly talked about.
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Sad to see Theo go as many of you know, but there are other promising HG forward players (who are quick!) almost breaking into the squad, Eddie made the PL bench not for the last time, and so as usual AFC do things the right way which doesn’t generate as many clicks but there it is.
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Theo leaving has got me emotional for good reason.
Why should I not shed some tears when one of ours departs?
Yes I know all the reasons why.
No, I don’t think either he or the club were wrong to part ways.
But it just hurts.
Theo’s one of ours…a good guy, a good spirit ..and…
I’m only human.
All the best Theo Walcott
Prove the twats wrong and make that team to Russia.
Bless.
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If City balked at the last pay day being demanded by Alexis in the Summer, by AFCs few demands, to only make a cheeky bid on the last day of the window then why would they do any different now?
Given that he’ll be available for free in a few months with his first summer off in years, why would they bid at all this window?
I know this consideration doesn’t add to the debate, wouldn’t generate the hits on the other “Football” *coughs* blogs but, well, there it is.
Sorry.
Even more sorry to George but Alexis could stay on the books till summer. Which is what the gaffer said is his preference, so I guess we’ll allfind out on the 1st Feb. Wouldn’t spend too much time on this one till then myself.
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Lehmann told Sport Bild that, “in the league, we have indeed fallen a bit short of our expectations and need to improve.”
“We had to accept by far the most bad calls in penalty decisions against us.
“We hope this will balance out over the remainder of the season.”
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