As an Arsenal supporter, something that both concerns and annoys me is the constant, unrelenting efforts by the mainstream media to sensationalize and manipulate bits of information to form a patently false narrative about our club. It is common to football as it is to politics and economics. The primary victim of the need to “sex-up” news and information is truth itself. Ironically, post “1984”, we have realized an Orwellian world where “Ignorance is strength”.
Thus, no more than five (5) weeks ago, just prior to the last international break and close of the transfer window, the usual suspects were trumpeting a narrative of crisis and total disaster (“shambles” is now the word of choice) because Arsenal had lost heavily to Liverpool. The ignorant were being led to believe that the Scousers were on the verge of sweeping all before them, Arsenal’s British core was crumbling as Oxlade-Chamberlain abandoned the sinking ship and both Alexis Sanchez and Mesut Ozil had no desire to play in lieu of non-renewal of their existing contract.
With the passage of time and the Premier League now on pause for another international break, a look at the tables easily discredits the dishonest, simplistic narrative. Arsenal is now in 5th in position two places above Liverpool, albeit by only one point.
| Premier League 17/18 League table | |||||||||
| # | Clubs | P | W | D | L | F | A | GD | Pts |
| 1 | Man City | 7 | 6 | 1 | – | 22 | 2 | 20 | 19 |
| 2 | Man United | 7 | 6 | 1 | – | 21 | 2 | 19 | 19 |
| 3 | Tottenham | 7 | 4 | 2 | 1 | 14 | 5 | 9 | 14 |
| 4 | Chelsea | 7 | 4 | 1 | 2 | 12 | 6 | 6 | 13 |
| 5 | Arsenal | 7 | 4 | 1 | 2 | 11 | 8 | 3 | 13 |
| 6 | Burnley | 7 | 3 | 3 | 1 | 7 | 5 | 2 | 12 |
| 7 | Liverpool | 7 | 3 | 3 | 1 | 13 | 12 | 1 | 12 |
It is only 114 games between all 20 clubs and thus statistically too early to draw hard and fast conclusions. But it is evident that the runners are already separating themselves from the stayers. Not surprisingly the two biggest spenders over the past two years, City and United, having splurged at least £400 million each on transfers, are already atop the table.
Like Pavlovian mice, the pundits in the mainstream media are already salivating, preparing for the coronation ceremony of either two as league champions. The fact that similar fast starts were recorded by both clubs over the past two seasons and they thereafter flagged down the stretch have not dissuaded these intrepid representatives of the mainstream media from their premature ejaculations.
A particular feature of MSM and their echo chamber (blogs and twitter) is their refusal to present the unbiased data in support of their prognostications. Yet they have easy access to massive computerized databases and well paid interns who can generate information on the fly. This is further proof to a frequent observation that we currently live in an era where “there has never been so much data and yet so little knowledge”.
One such ignorancy the pundits currently repeat without challenge is: the title will be decided in games between the top-6. The proximate cause of this “profundity” is the fact that Man City, under their golden boy Pep Guardiola, has beaten two teams expected to finish in the top positions i.e. Liverpool and Chelsea.
Apparently the results between 6 teams are more significant than the result between 14, i.e. a maximum of 30 versus 84 points respectively. Something so patently unscientific motivated my research of 21 years of Premier League history, covering the period it became a 20 team competition, to see whether there are any observable facts to support this proposition.
Points from Top-6 teams
As evident in the above graphic, the number of points obtained by PL champions from the top-6 have meandered between 13 and 25 points. The mean is 19 points with a standard deviation of 4 pts. Statistically, therefore, a PL champion will 95% of the time earn between 15 and 23 points (between half and two-thirds of the total available) from their top-6 rivals. Assuming it takes approximately 85 points to win the title, clubs must earn between 70 and 62 points from somewhere.
Points from Bottom-14 Teams
Cha Ching! The data indicates that on average 67 points or 78% of the total are obtained from the bottom teams, with a standard deviation of 5 points. In other words, 95% of the time a club must earn between 62 and 72 points from 28 games. Contrary to the blather from the pundits, it is clear a team that seriously aspires for the title must consistently maximize points from those 70% of teams that comprise the middle and lower reaches of the Premier League.
The challenge facing Arsenal is having a squad that is at least able to neutralize the top-6 while doing the business elsewhere, week-in, week out. In Part II of this series I will present the data for and against the Gooners.
PS: Part II of this series may be substantially delayed as I am currently heading to the hurricane ravaged Caribbean and may have limited if any access to the internet. Hopefully I will have a presence in comments section of the blog. Cheers.
Positively Arsenal 
I have just seen a report saying Marc Overmars has agreed to join ARSENAL,
So there’s that winger I’ve been on about
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https://fifa.to/e/IOij4Epv6G thats the link to vote for Oliver Giroud for the Puskas award hes already in the final three
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No Ianspace, you must be wrong about overmars, we are told Wenger doesn’t like taking on strong voices, or successful players from the past, he only likes nobody yes men under him, with the exception of Steve Bould, Mad Jens , Freddy, Adams, Keown, and Thierry in recent years. And it is said Pires is a pretty regular fixture at Colney as well.
No, Wenger doesn’t do ex players
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Testing
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testing again
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No such problems for me Andy.
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James OlleyVerified account @JamesOlley 2h2 hours ago
#afc pretty adamant no agreement has been reached for Marc Overmars to join the club in any capacity.
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Marco Alexandre Saraiva da Silva
I have a lot of time for this coach.
I hope we give Watford a shoeing, but the team will have to converte the chances.
Biggest game of the season.
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Get French Football @GFFN 12m12 minutes ago
33 | GOAL: France 2-0 Belarus (Giroud)
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Olivier Giroud is now France’s 7th top goalscorer of all time, tied with Youri Djorkaeff on 28 goals.
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Maitland-Niles played for England U21 today
Josh DaSilva and Stephy Mavadidi played for England U20’s, Mavadidi scored twice in their 4-0 win
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Get French Football @GFFN 18s18 seconds ago
France officially qualify for the 2018 World Cup in Russia.
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Jeorge Bird @jeorgebird 23m23 minutes ago
Ainsley Maitland-Niles made his England U21 debut and captained the team in the 1-0 win against Andorra.
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Chile out of the world cup.
Hope Alexis realise to sign for Arsenal.
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With most of the squad arriving back Wednesday instead of the usual Thursday or Friday it could mean we are better prepared for the weekend. If Alexis doesn’t sign a new contract his world cup aspirations are of no consequence.
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Arshavin was never the same after Russia failed to qualify for the World Cup , when he was at his peak.
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Some top top quality hate being directed at Sanchez this morning on social media – fucking disgraceful
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Oli getting a few deserved plaudits having helped what ‘on paper’ is a good French team to qualify. Barely a mention of Mo or Ooooospina both of whom key figures in their country’s Russian trip.
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George Sanchez has already starred at a WC so he won’t have the same natural deflation (reflected in an inflation of the waste line!) that we saw with AA. Perhaps his disappointment will work to AFCs advantage. It’s Ramsey’s and others’ future that scares me…yikes!
Given the nasty narrative from the shower surrounding all AFC players in the media, thanks again for this forum.
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Lots of praise for Martin o’neil’s “tactics” which completely ignores the football players on the football field – that it was a combo of the flair players Ramsey and Bale with others that raised Wales to tournament semi-finalists, something England haven’t achieved in twenty years during the life of Riley.
Jackie Charlton’s Irish team were direct, but they didn’t need luck with the ref ignoring or missing them take out opponents in order to beat Baggio’s Italy. O’Neil < Charlton.
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Not sure how the Koeman Out Krew are getting on with the Usmanov owned ETV led by that genius in PR Timmy not so nice & dim Payton, but rumour told me that it was Mrs.Giroud that kept the no.1 target man at AFC this summer and not Mr.Giroud’s status as France’s no.1 striker.
Giroud
Cazorla
Mertesacker
Ozil
Now Wilshere too
& yes negative stories always around Sanchez too from the moment he was signed when that no gooner Vengarrrrggghhh was gallivanting on the beach in Rio.
As Henry B notes and as every observer in n5 can note in spite of years and years of media attacks most match goers just love going to the football and watching their football team.
Yet, the consistency in this venal coverage is so smelly that it is remarkable:
Do you ever get the feeling that someone out there doesn’t like the Arsenal? For some ineffable reason…
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well everything went tits up for Chile yesterday, firstly them letting in an injury time third goal cost them 5th spot and a qualifying game for the WC, but other results went against them too, with our own David Ospina contributing to Chile missing out when he tried to save a indirect freekick that had been taken directly, and in so doing he made the freekick indirect, then to compound his mistake, he failed to save the shot when it really should have been saved. Going to be nice feelings toward him from Alexis.
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I was wondering why several mainstream media outlets such as the mail, and severak Arsenal blogs such as legrove were attacking Mesut Ozil today, and what do you know, Ozil’s agent has been quoted about Mesut’s future. And what do you know, talks with Arsenal are going well and Mesut wants to play another few years in the BPL
Quote from his agent
‘He wants to play in Premier League for at least 2-3 years. Our contacts with Arsenal continue and we are going in the positive direction.’
so there you have it, some positive news for Arsenal and the main stream media have lots of negative articles about it, we can expect it form “Ozil stealing a living” daily mail, but what excuse has Arsenal blogs for being complicit in doing the same, well other than they are a shower of brain dead cunts who will do anything to get the clicks attacking AFC brings them. Shower of bastards.
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Ozil’s dad is his agent, with some subbies advising him i guess.
Plenty of German’s, Mulsims and ethnic Turks don’t get similar affection rained down upon them by the shower.
It’s a mystery to me why this footballer gets attacked by the plundits ( many of whom are subbies to Agencies) and broadcasters (agencies, Neo-Raj petrogarchies doing as they are told, and smelly laundrettes). It’s a mystery why players not under the thimb of super agents would sign for the one club that gives super agents the middle finger – it wasn’t AW who gave GG his p45 – though the blaggers seem to made a calculation to airbrush that record from their narratives…
The mind boggles. That damp clouds unleash their load.
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< thumb
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That indeed is a positive quote from Mesut’s agent Eddy, though I suspect it could be quite drawn out with a lot depending on Arsenal finishing inside top 4 this season and of cause signing a worldly to give us about the same goal assists returns as Alexis does.
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<
https://www.transfermarkt.com/dr-erkut-so%C4%9Fut/beraterfirma/berater/2949
Ozil's agent/lawyer advising him and his family is a german-turkish specialist agent, lawyer etc. but he's not a Super Agent.
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The reigning champions of the Copa America( Chile), African Cup of Nations (Cameroon) CONCACAF Gold Cup (USA) have all failed to qualify for the 2018 World Cup.
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Chile Midfielder Arturo Vidal has retired from International football.
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Hiya, Fellas,
I have been asked, from time to time, by my more transient friends, who can be quick to notice these things, why it is that I have not stuck my beak onto Twitter to sample the ‘delightful’ fare to be had on there. Mainly, I suspect, because they seem to believe I can be short with people who feel it is incumbent on them to make execrable if not excremental comments about ‘my’ team.
‘Short’ in these terms refers to my notoriously low tolerance of such unworthy, baseless or downright stupid utterances. Now, I hasten to add that I do not think this describes me at all. I have no objection for disappointing but genuinely held views that are contrary to my own, provided that they are expressed in a reasoned way – even if the arguments offered are flawed.
Provocative comments, that is to say, those that are proffered with the deliberate intention of hurting my finer feelings on the subject do tend to call for appropriate retribution to be administered, after a suitable warning.
So back to the Twitter twats. I have actually read tweets on occasion, but these have left me feeling relatively sanguine, however putrid some of them are, because they seem to be uttered in accordance with some rules that defy logic, decency and common sense.
As I understand it, in the context of Arsenal, at least, person ‘A’ starts the ball rolling by concocting some incoherent, foul mouthed garbage. Person ‘B’ is required to respond with a comment laden with scorching vulgarity calling the other party’s parentages into question, and away it goes.
Forgive me for saying this, but all those participating seem to understand these rules in a way that a simple minded person like me will never comprehend – and though I will not be able to prove this, it seems to me that satisfaction is gained by the perceived delivery of an excruciating put down.
Therefore, I do not get embroiled in Tweeting, as I do not feel the need to educate sad-sacks like those who disrespectfully attack the Arsenal, because by participating I would feel I am rendering them some authentification or justification for their errant nonsense.
Which is not to say that I object to those Goobers with a different take on the matter, as there are, occasionally some beautiful and smile-worthy barbs dished out by the good guys or gals.
[I know you could not give a stuff about the above – but as there is quite a lot of reference to odious tweets on here, so I thought I would share my views as to why I do not take any notice — they will never ‘convert’ me away from my love of the Gunners – and I do not give a toss what any of them think.] LoL
Back into my box!! lol
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There is a terrible mistake made years ago by the creators of the typing keyboard.
They have placed the letter ‘n’ in close familiarity with the letter ‘b’, resulting in innocents such as I typing ‘Goobers’ instead of ‘Gooners’ —- or is it the damned auto-correct up to mischief — let me try — Goobers. Yup, it was not me or the keyboard – it was that bastard Tottenham biased auto-correct software. Try it. Lol
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>AOB Thanks for that link to goal of the year. Olly got my vote but against a lady and a goalkeeper? …and he’s a Gooner? Hope he wins it but if he doesn’t may the Keeper win it. We saw it on local TV about 50 times!
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Giroud goal up for the FIFA award, yet BBC match of the day in their divine wisdom chose an andy carroll goal for goal of the month, after all the public vote was deemed to have been distorted by those awful Arsenal fans with internet access
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Calum Chambers has signed a two-year contract extension until 2021.
The 22-year-old defender, who spent last season on loan with Middlesbrough, has made 60 appearances since joining us from Southampton in summer 2014.
Calum’s impressive performances in his first season were soon rewarded with a first senior international cap, in a friendly against Norway in September 2014. He was still a teenager at the time.
In fact, Calum made his senior England debut before representing the country’s under-21s, whom he helped win the Toulon Tournament at the end of the 2015/16 season.
Everyone at Arsenal is looking forward to Calum’s continued contribution to the club.
Read more at https://www.arsenal.com/news/chambers-signs-two-year-contract-extension#CFrAtTVujVHRpA0t.99
Read more at https://www.arsenal.com/news/chambers-signs-two-year-contract-extension#WfFKwjDXpYLpbE7U.99
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HAPPY ABT CALUM
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reports that Mustafi is out for at least 3 weeks, but Ozil, Kosciellny, Welbeck and Kolasinac all fit for Watford game
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Just coming back from the A.I.S.A. AGM and there was some interesting things going on. Discussions on ticket pricing, ticket allocation and security are constantly ongoing with the club and the police have been involved as well for some issues. The person at the club who agreed the young gunners for a tenner scheme is no longer there and the feeling from from talks is there is no one at ARSENAL to champion the scheme and give it decent publicity especially as in the short term it’s a loss making excercise.
The second part of the evening was a Q an A with Eddie Kelly who was brilliant and thinks all modern players are fairies, really funny
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Great news about Callum Chambers, think there is a really good player there.
On another note, Paul Merson takes football science to a new level, apparently Wenger could win the league if he was more like Redknapp, a man who to my knowledge has never finished above Wenger. Perhaps Merson , in his infinite wisdom is invoking some sort of super string theory, with a parallel supra quantum multiversal multidimensional concept where things that have already happened can be changed to suit his own agenda
http://www.mirror.co.uk/sport/football/news/paul-merson-claims-arsene-wenger-11328488
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Mandy,
I am not sure whether that was a typo, or not – ‘Perhaps Merson, in his infinite wisdom is “smoking” some sort of super string theory.
Alternatively, I will have to revise my thoughts on his cerebral abilities. He may well have been referring to supersymmetry which holds there exists a link between two fundamentally different types of particles, bozos and ferrets.
Kidding aside, I rather like Paul, but ………
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Very happy that Calum has signed a contract extension, as I was surprised how quickly he seemed to fall from grace, according to the perceived wisdom.
Candidly, I felt his absence on loan might have been the precursor to a permanent move — which given he got very good reports from the Middlesborough fans — seemed a pity.
Glad my fears were groundless.
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George Weah
Mr George is now President.
I for one hope he can affect change.
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The Earth is flat and Arsenal would win the title if Arsene Wenger’s tactics were as good as Harry Redknapp’s, says Paul Merson
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“Over the course of a full Premier League season, telling a striker – as Redknapp once did to Roman Pavlyuchenko – “to fucking run around a bit” might end up doing more harm than good, but to get a result over 90 minutes (for the national team) it can be effective street football.”
What the bleeding heck? Street football?!!
Oh my god. Help!
As Ray Wilkins would opine: My. Word.
This fermenting dropping above taken from the mound left by the Manchester Grunt is a pristine example for the curious anthropologist/biologist.
For the rest of us ignoring the barks from Rosie there’s a reasonably clear message left by the writers of Mike Bassett England Manager, the Damned Utd etc …
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that is beautiful
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I’m in remote parts until next Wednesday, so don’t be expecting any opus from me on Saturday morning.
Talk among yourselves.
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Hang on there’s a sequel!
Mike Bassett Interim Manager.
Doesn’t sound like the most amazing concept, but considering that the current England manager is indeed a former interim manager following on from the legend of Big Sam (that story could need a trilogy of movies) then perhaps the writers were ahead of their time…*applauds*
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Oh what a night
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Arsene Wenger has revealed the latest team news ahead of our Premier League clash against Watford at Vicarage Road.
The manager provided updates on the likes of Shkodran Mustafi, Laurent Koscielny, and had good news on Danny Welbeck and Mesut Ozil.This is what he had to say:
on the latest team news…
I haven’t seen everybody, because some players are coming back today and some are in tomorrow, like Alexis. The minor problem we have is with Sead Kolasinac. We’ll check him today – he has a hip problem. We lost Mustafi for about four to six weeks and I don’t think he’ll be available before the next international break. Ozil and Welbeck are back in the group in normal training.
on if Koscielny could play at Watford…
Koscielny has a definite final test tomorrow. At the moment, he’s not available. He trained on his own and the first signs are positive, so we decided to give him a test tomorrow.
on whether he has defensive concerns given Mustafi and Koscielny issues…
Yes, I have. I think about sorting out the problem, but overall I will completely decide what I do tomorrow because Koscielny will have a test then. He worked quite hard physically, he looks like he is capable of playing if he survives the test. If he has no pain on his Achilles tendon, he can play. I will decide that tomorrow.
on Mustafi’s injury…
It’s always difficult to predict the situation because the player I least expected to lose during the break was Mustafi. First of all, I was not sure he would play. Secondly, Germany had already qualified so I didn’t expect him to be out injured as the games would be less intense. He didn’t play in the first game, and we lost him in the second game against Azerbaijan at home. We have to cope with that now.
on Sead Kolasinac…
He had a little hip problem but overall I haven’t seen him yet. I will make a check up this morning, but the news we have on him is quite positive.
on Mesut Ozil…
He was not available for Germany, but he is now available yes. He had a whole week training, he is maybe not completely back physically to his best but he is available. There is no problem anymore.
on Danny Welbeck…
He is available for selection again. He is a bit quicker than expected.
Read more at https://www.arsenal.com/news/team-news-welbeck-ozil-mustafi-koscielny#LDFBiqJihHteBR6L.99
Read more at https://www.arsenal.com/news/team-news-welbeck-ozil-mustafi-koscielny#TERRIOuxFASclGdJ.99
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As always, Jack Wilshere was a hot topic at Arsene Wenger’s pre-match press conference at London Colney on Thursday.
The England international has been in fine form so far this season – but could he force his way back into the reckoning for a World Cup spot?
Wenger had this to say:
on if Jack needs to leave to get into England’s World Cup squad…
I don’t think so. I believe that Jack at the moment is in the best form I’ve seen him in for a long time. He’s very close now to being considered like anybody else. Overall I believe he doesn’t necessarily have to leave Arsenal to reach the World Cup. If he keeps going like he’s going at the moment, he will go to the World Cup, I’m sure. I don’t see Jack being fully fit and not going to the World Cup.
on whether Jack will get the games at Arsenal…
He’s already played games for us since the start of the season, and he will play many more.
on him saying Jack will go to the World Cup…
I wish he goes to the World Cup.
on whether Gareth Southgate and England need Jack at the World Cup…
Of course.
on whether England have any other player like Jack…
Jack is certainly one of the players who has that [ability to excite] more than anybody else. We have plenty of good players but he is maybe more of a No 10 than any other player. He can open spaces, can play in tight areas, can get out of tight areas as well.
Read more at https://www.arsenal.com/news/wilshere-his-best-form-long-time#yJr4mzBqE6rb0io3.99
Read more at https://www.arsenal.com/news/wilshere-his-best-form-long-time#rHWAXplBD82FlhdF.99
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