As an Arsenal supporter, something that both concerns and annoys me is the constant, unrelenting efforts by the mainstream media to sensationalize and manipulate bits of information to form a patently false narrative about our club. It is common to football as it is to politics and economics. The primary victim of the need to “sex-up” news and information is truth itself. Ironically, post “1984”, we have realized an Orwellian world where “Ignorance is strength”.
Thus, no more than five (5) weeks ago, just prior to the last international break and close of the transfer window, the usual suspects were trumpeting a narrative of crisis and total disaster (“shambles” is now the word of choice) because Arsenal had lost heavily to Liverpool. The ignorant were being led to believe that the Scousers were on the verge of sweeping all before them, Arsenal’s British core was crumbling as Oxlade-Chamberlain abandoned the sinking ship and both Alexis Sanchez and Mesut Ozil had no desire to play in lieu of non-renewal of their existing contract.
With the passage of time and the Premier League now on pause for another international break, a look at the tables easily discredits the dishonest, simplistic narrative. Arsenal is now in 5th in position two places above Liverpool, albeit by only one point.
| Premier League 17/18 League table | |||||||||
| # | Clubs | P | W | D | L | F | A | GD | Pts |
| 1 | Man City | 7 | 6 | 1 | – | 22 | 2 | 20 | 19 |
| 2 | Man United | 7 | 6 | 1 | – | 21 | 2 | 19 | 19 |
| 3 | Tottenham | 7 | 4 | 2 | 1 | 14 | 5 | 9 | 14 |
| 4 | Chelsea | 7 | 4 | 1 | 2 | 12 | 6 | 6 | 13 |
| 5 | Arsenal | 7 | 4 | 1 | 2 | 11 | 8 | 3 | 13 |
| 6 | Burnley | 7 | 3 | 3 | 1 | 7 | 5 | 2 | 12 |
| 7 | Liverpool | 7 | 3 | 3 | 1 | 13 | 12 | 1 | 12 |
It is only 114 games between all 20 clubs and thus statistically too early to draw hard and fast conclusions. But it is evident that the runners are already separating themselves from the stayers. Not surprisingly the two biggest spenders over the past two years, City and United, having splurged at least £400 million each on transfers, are already atop the table.
Like Pavlovian mice, the pundits in the mainstream media are already salivating, preparing for the coronation ceremony of either two as league champions. The fact that similar fast starts were recorded by both clubs over the past two seasons and they thereafter flagged down the stretch have not dissuaded these intrepid representatives of the mainstream media from their premature ejaculations.
A particular feature of MSM and their echo chamber (blogs and twitter) is their refusal to present the unbiased data in support of their prognostications. Yet they have easy access to massive computerized databases and well paid interns who can generate information on the fly. This is further proof to a frequent observation that we currently live in an era where “there has never been so much data and yet so little knowledge”.
One such ignorancy the pundits currently repeat without challenge is: the title will be decided in games between the top-6. The proximate cause of this “profundity” is the fact that Man City, under their golden boy Pep Guardiola, has beaten two teams expected to finish in the top positions i.e. Liverpool and Chelsea.
Apparently the results between 6 teams are more significant than the result between 14, i.e. a maximum of 30 versus 84 points respectively. Something so patently unscientific motivated my research of 21 years of Premier League history, covering the period it became a 20 team competition, to see whether there are any observable facts to support this proposition.
Points from Top-6 teams
As evident in the above graphic, the number of points obtained by PL champions from the top-6 have meandered between 13 and 25 points. The mean is 19 points with a standard deviation of 4 pts. Statistically, therefore, a PL champion will 95% of the time earn between 15 and 23 points (between half and two-thirds of the total available) from their top-6 rivals. Assuming it takes approximately 85 points to win the title, clubs must earn between 70 and 62 points from somewhere.
Points from Bottom-14 Teams
Cha Ching! The data indicates that on average 67 points or 78% of the total are obtained from the bottom teams, with a standard deviation of 5 points. In other words, 95% of the time a club must earn between 62 and 72 points from 28 games. Contrary to the blather from the pundits, it is clear a team that seriously aspires for the title must consistently maximize points from those 70% of teams that comprise the middle and lower reaches of the Premier League.
The challenge facing Arsenal is having a squad that is at least able to neutralize the top-6 while doing the business elsewhere, week-in, week out. In Part II of this series I will present the data for and against the Gooners.
PS: Part II of this series may be substantially delayed as I am currently heading to the hurricane ravaged Caribbean and may have limited if any access to the internet. Hopefully I will have a presence in comments section of the blog. Cheers.
Positively Arsenal 
Eddy’s post yesterday was a fine example of truth-telling which as he detailed was not well received by the experts in double-speak who cling to this football club like parasites. These are life lessons most of us should apply in our day-to-day business.
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Shotta, in simplistic terms, if you take Spain as the extreme example, the top teams beat everyone and the title is decided with the head to head results swaying the balance,
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Morning Shotta – you beat me to it this morning – as usual a fine and well researched piece.
One point did strike me on the 17/18 early table is the goals scored/conceded by the Manchester clubs – I cant recall a pattern like that before.
With Manyoo it is a bit difficult to tell as they have not played any good quality opposition yet.
As for Citeh I have lashed Pep for his defensive ineptitude before but never the quality of his teams going forward.
I shall keep my eye on that goals scored/conceded though.
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Conversley the La Liga table looks a little out of sorts. Real Madrid are not in full flow and below Sevilla and others. Early days, too early to conculde that the PL and La Liga have swapped patterns!
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Arsene Vulture plays AMN at LWB in his second team:
It’s a shambles. Everything is sh*t.
Young Pep has a peek and then plays Delph at LWB for his first team as he only has one LWB (OK I admit it these two managers have been copying each other for years):
Ohhhhhh look! Isn’t it marvelous. Brilliant.
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Fins: Don’t forget right-footed players such as Bellerin and the late citizen of Islington, Oxlade-Chamberlain, who were also tasked with playing LWB earlier in the season. But apparently Arsene Wenger is no innovator. Such encomiums are reserved for young Pep and his £500 million squad. Such deceit. Truly ignorance is strength.
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Shotts that resource for all us frustrated football agents transfermarkt tells me that AMN is also right footed!
https://www.transfermarkt.com/ainsley-maitland-niles/profil/spieler/285845
The evidence tells us that there is one rule for the agent friendly clubs and another for those that aren’t. Not an opinion.
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shotta_gooner
Go get that good bush tea and go to Salt River
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Good luck Shotta, I hope you are not too devastated when you see the aftermath
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Nice work yet again Shotta!
I hope things are stable and improving in the Caribbean.
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Wonderful move and finish from Wales to take the lead, great football, Ramsey with the assist.
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Meanwhile the Germans looked ominous without their best player, thought the plundits here will tel you he’s not god enough! they’re still bitter about what happened in 2010
with Alexis about to make Messi cry again and possibly Brazil for a moment too, I think I’m going to head down to the bookies. And out some wonga on glory next summer for Kane and England…
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on the topic of the post, it is said Sir Alex always seen it as vital to beat the bottom 13 teams, home and away if possible, 26 wins, 78pts right there, another 10 – 15 pts from the other 12 games and title is there or very close. Fergie said that the gulf in class between utd and the bottom 13 meant that Utd should be able to beat them home and away most of the time.
yes we know utd got a helping hand too, but the aim was still a correct one. I think in his last season when they won the title they too full points off most if not all bottom 13, and that utd team was certainly not anywhere near one of his best, but putting away the cannon fodder got them over the line.
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Chile will have to beat Brazil away to be sure of making it, if they lose they might even miss out on 5th spot. Argentina know a win will see them get at least 5th.
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ospina made mistakes for both paraguay goals, with the loss putting colombia in danger of missing the WC
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Good win for Wales – Aaron excellent and a me step closer to the World Cup – RoI in Cardiff next and a great night in prospect on Monday
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if Ireland need a win v Wales, they will target Ramsey, in the first game they targeted him and Bale, so with Bale out, they will double up on Ramsey. Hopefully there is a good ref in charge who will not allow it.
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FIFA considering fewer but longer International breaks
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Did Ramsey have a good game then?
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that was Ramsey’s 50th cap for Wales
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Man of the match tonight – led his team and lec his country – I doubt anyone could have done better
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Ireland strolling past Moldova tonight – both sides will give it a right go on Monday.
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wales still have an outside chance of topping the group, serbia lost to austria tonight
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Love these deep analysis post Shotta well done yet again.
I saw today a paper saying they had crunched the numbers and had city winning the league with chelski second manure third and tiny totts fourth pool fifth and us in sixth. There was no explanation on how they come to those results so I think it was just a guess.
Obviously I can’t agree with that although I do prefer city to the rest of we don’t win it.
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Though i dont like graphic illustrations and prefer numerical charts but still got the point
Win your matches against the bottom 14 home and away and neutralise the top 6 and the title will be wothin reach.
Good post shotts.
Await the 2nd part.
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Summing up AFTV, many bloggers, many Football Pundits, Many Football Writers, and twitter football experts
“Egotism is the anaesthetic that dulls the pain of stupidity.” (Frank Leahy)
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Argentina
1Romero
2Mercado
17Otamendi
14Mascherano
15AcuñaBooked at 90mins
6BigliaBooked at 14mins
19BanegaSubstituted forGagoat 60’minutesSubstituted forPérezat 66’minutes
11Di MaríaSubstituted forRigoniat 45’minutes
10Messi
22Gomez
7Benedetto
Substitutes
3Fazio
4Pezzella
5Gago
8Pérez
9Icardi
12Guzmán
13Casco
16Rigoni
18Salvio
20Paredes
21Dybala
23Marchesín
How come Venga can’t get this team to the World Cup
#Venga arrrrrrrrrt
So easy Micky down the pub could do it.
Venga got that Messy bloke up front an everything
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Bergkamp
BPL games 315 Goals 87 Assists 94 Combined Goal and Assists 181
Goal or Assist every 1.7 Games
Ozil
BPL Games 121 Goals 23 Assists 42 Combined Goal and Assists 67
Goal or Assist every 1.8 Games
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Wenger says the period from now until December will be crucial to @JackWilshere’s future in the top tier.
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Arsenal’s Alex Iwobi scored as Nigeria beat a stubborn Zambia 1-0 to become the first African side to seal a place at next year’s World Cup in Russia.
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https://vimeo.com/236911018
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Alex Iwobi about 10 feet tall this morning
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Excellent as always, Shotta.
Boy, the Caribbean has really been hit. Take care.
Edu
Thanks for previous article . Also, excellent.
A5, ta for posting the @Arsenal/Iwobi piece. (I might not have seen it).
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Arsene asked Alex to add goals to his game and if he continues to do that he is going to be top class
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England are a very tough watch
They are currently playing in Jordan Henderson’s image.
Running around with no real understanding of angles and spaces
No incisiveness and imagination.
Henderson currently plays in a Thrash Metal side : Three chords played fast and hard.
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Egypt have reached the World Cup finals.
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Mustafi off injured in Germany game
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Telegraph Sport
8 October 2017 • 10:38pm
Arsenal defender Shkodran Mustafi could be out for some time after suffering a thigh muscle injury in Germany’s 5-1 World Cup qualifying win over Azerbaijan on Sunday, Germany coach Joachim Loew said.
Mustafi had to be taken off after 36 minutes when he was injured in the build-up to Azerbaijan’s equaliser, grabbing his right thigh in pain with no opponents near him.
“With Mustafi it seems that it is some muscle tear or some muscle fibre tear,” Loew told reporters. “In any case it could force him to a longer break.”
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On the BBC re Scotland and Strachan’s comments after their draw. Essentially they apparently struggled with the height of their opposition. “Genetically we are behind. In the last campaign we were the second smallest, apart from Spain”. The difference being apparently a full THREE cms across the team.
So just over one inch difference. That’s why they failed.
And Spain?
And that is serious analysis.
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CHRIS WADDLE (62 England caps) Is in the camp of ‘Unity of Message stupid’
They have amazing physiques, but are overcoached and we’ve kicked every bit of imagination out of them.
Solution: Jonjo Shelvey of Newcastle
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Classic plunditting from Gordon Strachen there.
Nevermind the outstanding three centimetres (thirty Millimeteres OMG!) it’s the reference to the giants from Spain like the poor Silva and Mata (Busquets, pre-Giroud leading target man Lorente…etc) coming from a manager that was himself a similar player that slays me. Priceless.
A good start to the week.
–
Although it looks like Mustafi is now out with injury in a meaningless match, hopefully Chambers is now back in the squad. The BFG had started the season in the first team though the elbow and subsequent concussion recovery meant he was out for most of August after the supercup victory, Cahill revealing his jealousy towards a successful international class top rated legendary CB.
We may see NM, PM and LK back in the back three, though Holding will also be keen to keep his place.
Prayer beads at the ready for the Welsh match later today.
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WWB
They’ve been trying to kick the football out of St.Jack of the Shires for some time…but it looks like he is back! Be interesting to see if he gets as much protection as the Agent Guilds’* diving & clogging current No.10 for England when he’s back playing the PL (we all know he won’t!
* For Kane’s consistency outside of the top level (to date) the opposite is true for the protected diving clogger with 2 in 20 playing at no.10 against giants like Iceland and Malta who after such a record retains his place without question? Really…?
Let’s be fair: It’s an insult against the Game.
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:
The hype for Alli was risible before yesterday’s refelective performance but fair play to the England manager pointing out the obvious hilariously denied by the broadcasters who spend billions, that there are no players in his squad at the moment who’ve ever been at the top level.
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If Alli is England’s best 10 (far from it) they might as well pack it all in and call it a day.
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. Am so cutoff. How did we live without the internet?
Obviously Part II of this blog is ages away. But I am happy to concur with Eddy. Man Utd, under Ferguson, we’re experts at demolishing bottom 14 teams home and away. There was one year they won the title with only 15 points from the top-6, the lowest ever in 22 years. Any pundit who emphasizes results vs the top-6 is, to be polite, simply stupid.
Glad Wales is doing well. Like Andy Nic it is drawing me one step closer to Russia 2018.
Until I find another good location, keep up the high standards on this blog.
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Good to see my “yute” Ranty is alive and well.
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Strange at it may seem Smallo spooky even, the first thing that struck me watching the Slovenes and the Jocks at it last night was the home side’s obvious phyisical superiority- taller, wider, quicker and stronger. Strachan is about right I’d say, embarrassing for the flower of Scotland though it must be.
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I see iOS 11 and WordPress are determined to fuck about as I have to log in after each comment – shakes head
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Please go FIFA .com to vote for Oliver Giroud who’s goal v palace is in the top three of the Puskas Award, I’ll try and post the link later
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