It is the interlull and idle minds have idle thoughts. At the risk of arousing the mischief-makers in the fanbase, who eagerly need a scapegoat du jour to feast on when the going gets wobbly, there is something intriguing about the future role of Aaron Ramsey when he returns from injury given the way the team has developed in his absence. To be fair I am not the first fan who has raised these concerns but I will approach it from my usual data-driven perspective.
I start from the premise that Ramsey is directly competing with Santi Cazorla for that central midfield starting position. I base this primarily on the fact that Wenger selected Ramsey to be the box-to-box midfielder in the club’s season-opener vs Liverpool at the expense of a fit Cazorla who only came on after the younger man left the field with a hamstring injury.
A superficial look at their characteristics according to Whoscored.com would suggest that Santi has the greater skill-set and is hands-down a better option, all things being equal.
| Santi Cazorla | ||
| Strengths | ||
| Passing | Very Strong | |
| Through balls | Very Strong | |
| Holding on to the ball | Strong | |
| Key passes | Strong | |
| Dribbling | Strong | |
| Taking set-pieces | Strong | |
| Long shots | Strong | |
| Weaknessess | ||
| Tackling | Weak | |
| Aaron Ramsey | ||
| Strengths | ||
| Passing | Very Strong | |
| Key passes | Strong | |
| Holding on to the ball | Strong | |
| Defensive Contribution | Strong | |
| Weaknessess | ||
| Crossing | Weak | |
Merely looking at their relative characteristics, in my opinion, does not adequately answer the question as to why the manager saw Ramsey as a superior option at the beginning of the season. Unlike many Arsenal bloggers, I do not believe for one moment that Wenger makes any footballing decision based purely on sentiment. He has said often enough he is obsessed with winning football games and his record of victories is second to none when it comes to previous football mangers at Arsenal Football Club. Focussing solely on their EPL performances, I decided to parse the WhoScored data to identify any trends, starting with their respective playing time.
It’s quite evident that ever since his transfer to the club in 2012 (the importance of this was overshadowed by the noisy, acrimonious sale of Van Persie to United that same summer) Santi has played some heavy minutes for the club, in excess of 3,000 per season in 12/13 and 14/15. Add 624 and 559 respectively in the champions league campaigns, then we get a full measure of how vital it was for the manager to have the little Spaniard on the team sheet. For comparison’s sake, Aaron has never logged a similar amount of time but it is telling that when Santi’s playing time was scuttled by injuries in 15/16, the Welshman’s participation increased, suggesting there is an inverse relationship.
In the goal-scoring department Ramsey is the clear winner over the four seasons together. He hit a peak of 10 goals in 13/14 and since then has leveled off to a most recent haul of 5 goals for a season. Santi was a goal-scoring tyro in 12/13 but has become less of an option from open play emerging as the penalty and free-kick specialist in recent years. After 15 games in 15/16, before that season-ending injury, his goal tally was zero.
While Ramsey had an Indian summer in 13/14 with goals and assists, like his goal-scoring, the assists have gradually tailed off over the years. In 15/16 he was a provider on a mere four occasions. In contrast Santi has been a constant assister, his best years being 12/13 and 14/15 when he had major minutes on the field. His only off year was 15/16 when his campaign was truncated less than half way through.
This is a most telling graphic. Santi with one exception has consistently been the superior passer. While they may have been statistically the same in 12/13, Aaron’s passing percentage has been decidedly inferior over time with the gap at its widest in 15/16 at 4 percentage points. Ramsey is down to the mid 80s while the Spaniard is in the stratospheric 90s. How significant is this difference given that the current Arsenal is a technically oriented outfit that relies on possession and accurate, clever passing?
In its ultimate rating Whoscored ranked Ramsey a superior Overall player on only one occasion at 7.7. That was in 13/14, the best year in his career for goals and assists. Otherwise Santi has had the consistently superior Overall rating, from a high of 7.9 in 12/13 to a low of 7.3 in 13/14. Despite the ravages of time, Santi is now 31 years old (vs Aaron’s youthful 26), the veteran has seemingly defied age this season. After six EPL games he has 2 goals and 2 assists and a 92% passing success rate, yielding a 7.1 Overall rating. The little magician seems in no hurry to exit center stage.
Arsene Wenger certainly has better knowledge of both players than any of us. He observes them on the training ground and will have access to superior data than Whoscored. The manager recently admitted he receives enormous information from the in-house analytics firm, StatDNA, but has to whittle it down to what is most important. In this instance, while the data set is small, I wonder whether he now thinks Ramsey’s better goal-scoring and defensive contribution outweighs Cazorla’s better passing and assists. Interesting times ahead.
Positively Arsenal 
Great informative piece Shotta.
I think it’s pretty clear that saint Cazorla is the better player of the 2 in the CM/B2B role. I also don’t necessarily think Ramsey is in direct competition for Santi for that position. Santi’s absence from the starting line-up vs Liverpool had more to do with fitness if I recall.
Since Ramsey’s indian summer the boss has favoured him in a more advanced role – where Theo currently plays and that’s who I see him in competition with. Mo Elneny and Xhaka seem to me like traditional CM’s.
Theo’s new lease on life could only inspire Ramsey to be better than he already is as the 2 of them would share the responsibility of that wide attacking position – games are coming thick and fast till the new year.
it’s great that there’s competition amongst the guys but I’m more excited about the genuine depth we have with these quality players. Elneny, Xhaka, Mustafi along side Theo who’s already better than last year has take this team on an upward curve. Ramsey is a class act and I’m waiting Ox to get in on the action.
PS: thanks again for filling the interlull.
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That is quite a piece Shotts – congratulations. At the moment Santi is undroppable. The player whose form is not quite right and where Arsene might slot Aaron back in to replace is Mesut.
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All hail The Shotta – splendid piece and food for thought on an otherwise deathly quiet footballing Sunday.
I always feel hopelessly ill-equipped to attempt to make judgements on player selection as there’s always so much we as fans are not party to so this article helps to shine a number of spotlights on an interesting and seemingly perennial selection dilemma for le Boss.
The only gap in the stats that I can see relates to the impact on form Ramsey’s various hair-dying/resculpting practices is alleged to have had, but maybe a certain Alabamanian can shed some light on this most contentious of points?
Nice one Shotta!
*awaits storm to re-hit the American Deep South*
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IMO the data is hugely flawed. It does not take into account that playing time is distorted because of injury,As the reality is that both normally always play when fit. This suggests that they therefore play in different positions. Players that play farther up feild will inevitably have poorer passing stats than those that play deeper. Santi used to play farther forward and that explains the improvement to his pass % and the opposite is true for Aaron.
Arron is more of a risk taker than Santi. My worry is that Arsene does not always stick with risk takers, the ultimate of those was my little Tzar.
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We here on PA must resist the temptation of getting too smug with the number and quality the articles we are treated too. I’m smiling…..
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Santi for the simple fact that Ramsey is incapable of taking the ball from the defence under pressure and turning an opponent. Santi, Wilshere and Xhaka do this at ease. Without any of these, the early ball, the flow of the attack is ruined. This is why Xhaka was purchased. Ramsey is best suited further forward where is able to run into the box at ease…. but we have Ozil for that.
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The 2014 FA cup final is string evidence that George might be onto something here hehe.
Both players played. Both scored. Arsenal won the cup.
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I’d have them in my squad!
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Problem for Ramsey is those hammies. Kid gloves are required. Which is unfortunate but it does mean that there’s room in the squad for both.
And when the angels descend and carry the Saint away from us (back to Spain) the prodigal son (JW) will hopefully return, stronger and fitter, to fill the hole in the squad.
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We might see Rambo eased back into the wider midfield role on his return, wasn’t that how they lined up against Villa in the most dominant FA cup final performance by any team in recent memory? Not forgetting the coaches and physios will have a strong instinct to not overplay Iwobi, a similar line up to the one below seems like one natural and obvious variation (out of a few such as starting with OG at CF) to the current in form XI available to the manager.
Starting eleven vs. Villa in 2015:
1Szczesny
39Bellerin
4Mertesacker
6Koscielny
18Monreal
34Coquelin
19Cazorla
16Ramsey
11ÖzilSubstituted < Wilshereat 77'minutes
17Sánchez < Oxlade-Chamberlainat 90'minutes
14Walcott < Giroudat 77'minutes
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In my O-level maths book there was a cartoon which said that a politician uses statistics as a drunk a lamp post : for support rather than illumination. As Shotta would no doubt urge the statistics are just that: it is the differing uses that are made of them that is interesting. To me Aaron gives more than passing data: he brings energy and intensity and more than most he dares to dream. Which is why of course I was never much good at sums and ended up teaching Literature!
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“Ramsey is incapable of taking the ball from the defence under pressure and turning an opponent.”
Fucking speechless.
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Another delicious piece by Shotta. Thanks.
I intend to daydream about the way our players play. Fortunately, it’s mostly nice turns, multi dribbles other successful plays that I dream of. Both Carzo & Ramsey can play dual roles. It strikes me that Santi has a slight edge over Aaron for getting out of tight spots in the middle, but that’s probably not too relevant, if even true.
I like the fact that Aaron can play in more starting positions. (I think Santi isn’t as effective on the wing as he may have been, whisky, if a fit Aaron starts on the wing he’ll cover wing plus ‘rest of the field’, as he seems to whichever position he has started).
I think the main thing is that we have several high class midfielders at hand. Indeed, several high class players at my club!
Who made the point about Iwobi getting rest? Good point. And before we know it, he and El Nen will be off to the African championships and that will follow an Xmas program where Arsenal could be even nearer to the top, and other teams gifts will be to get a few more kicks/dodgy decisions on our players, like at Southampton on Boxing Day last year. (Had to get that one in, didn’t I).
Anyway, what I love about this article and comments is that; being published here on PA, besides lovely graphs and data I can easily understand, there’s none of the crap that would appear on most other blogs, which is a slagging off of the merits or not of the players in question.
Have a good day, all.
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Hi Ranty -the Africa Cup of Nations may well deprive us of Elneny as he is a key player for Egypt. The dates of the contest in Gabon are 14 January to 5th Feb. As Nigeria failed to qualify we won’t be losing Alex though.
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I often whip out that quote FH which is a cut down version of an original from AE Housman
“And critics who treat MS (manuscript) evidence as rational men treat all evidence, and test it by reason and by the knowledge which they have acquired, these are blamed for rashness and capriciousness by gentlemen who use MSS as drunkards use lamp-posts,— not to light them on their way but to dissimulate their instability.”
Much more elegant !
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According to Wenger, the reason why Cazorla was not in the starting 11 v Liverpool, was cos he was not fit. In fact Wenger maintained that Santi was not fully fit till four games into the season.
Ramsey and Cazorla have completely different styles of play, so to compare the two for the same role is a faulty premise. Ramsey is probably best described as a box to box midfielder, while Cazorla is a deep lying play maker. Ones game is about ground covered, assists, goals and making those runs beyond our strikers. The others is about passing, starting moves, little one twos, dead ball taker.
Ramsey is about getting in and around the area, goalscoring and assists, when was the last time Cazorla scored from play, when was the last time he got an assist from play. I don’t recall either this or last season.
I don’t think Ramsey and Cazorla are in direct competition for a starting position, having said that, we still might not see that much of both of them in the team at the same time (although that has not been the case over the years, when fit both are selected, just not as partners). Ramsey’s best season in CM was with Arteta beside him, Cazorla seems happy with Coquelin beside him in CM. Both AR and SC have found themselves shifted around several positions, depending on Wenger employing that tactic thing he is accused of not using. AW likes to have a striker wide man and a midfield wide man, so when Ramsey is back fit, don’t be surprised to see Iwobi most at risk of losing out, especially with Theo is fine form. AR could be played at CAM, with Mesut shifted to the left, we could have Xhaka and Ramsey in CM, with Santi at CAM or wide left. The options are massive, the potential even greater, but I would expect, going on history alone, that when fit, both Ramsey and Cazorla will be in our starting 11, just not as a CM two.
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A5
Thanks for that joyful snippet – Nigeria not qualifying. It’s not that I don’t want Nigeria to succeed, it’s just that I don’t want our players partaking – for purely selfish reasons. (In the same way that ‘all hail England FC’, but leave Arsenal’s player’s out of it.
Tottys players are so good, so use them. (Iceland, a ha ha har).
How was England v Malta for you lot? I found it funny. The plaudits screamed how 80k attendance is prolly the highest around Europe. Would I have paid to see that match? No. I would’ve saved my pennies for summat Arsenal.
For me, England’s standard of play, inc. ball retention, passing moves and all that was poo-wah. (poor). A better team would’ve taken them apart. Or maybe I’m just spoiled by the gorgeousness of Arsenal’s play.
During the Euro’s I heard plundits describing England’s players as having had it too easy in the qualies. I disagree. I think that with Wilshere and Ox (sometimes, Gibbs) playing, the games had more intelligent play. (Sturridge, Lallana, etc, need a properly creative midfielder even if Jack looks like he’s playing DM.
Speaking of DM’s, I’m sure I heard Arsene saying summat about ‘DM as a position not being entirely the Holy Grail’, a few years ago.
To use someone else’s cliche: teams need to defend as a team. Like ****ing Burnley, or Chelski, or ….? Who knows.
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How was England v Malta for you lot?
Not too bad – I watched the All Blacks slaughter the Boks to be honest.
I really could not be bothered to watch international games so one-sided after about 5 minutes. There was no enjoyment in it. Fair enough Malta, San Marino, Gibraltar, Lichtenstein have a right to have a football team but surely it serves then badly to get hammered game after game after game.
Mind you the way the South Africans are feeling today that ‘one-sided’ quip might apply to them.
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Too soon A5. Too soon. At least we are taking out our frustrations on the Aussies in the cricket today.
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Isn’t it nice to cause a little uproar during this dull international break? As I told A5 in a private exchange prior to this blog I was providing a little fat for us to chew on. The comments have been excellent.
PS: Am glad George pointed out how the stats, not data, by WhoScored and others can be unreliable. Now we have an insight as to why AFC decided to invest in their own analytics firm.
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Squawka Football @Squawka 1h1 hour ago
Zambia 0-2 Nigeria HT:
32’ Alex Iwobi scores
42’ Kelechi Iheanacho scores
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Shotta, many thanks for the stimulating post. Great work as always. For my part I concur with those who feel that one is probably not comparing like-with-like. I think it’s difficult for a manager to leave out a fully-fit Ramsay as he can be, and frequently is, a game changer. Arron has the capacity to be someone who can be the difference when games are close. A genuine “game changer”, which is so important when the outcome of games is decided by such small margins. If one is looking purely at technique, Santi would expect to win by a significant margin but there is more to our wondrous game than technique alone. I’m not saying by the way that Aaron does not possess excellent technique – he does – it’s just that virtually any player would have trouble competing with Santi on this score, particularly given his dexterity in playing with both feet. A wonderfully elegant and balanced player if ever there was. I think we are truly blessed to have both players, who seem to be genuinely good people as well, on our books. But all things being equal – which they really are – a fully-fit and on form Ramsay would always force his way into my team. But, hey, what do I know! In practice of course we are never going to have a fully-fit squad (very few do) and what might be seen as the luxury of selecting from the whole squad does not happen. Indeed, that’s the principal reason of course why squads exist. We also need to bear in mind the physical demands placed on players nowadays – particularly those playing these godforsaken internationals (can we have (another) referendum to “opt out”??) – and the undoubted need to rest players. Roll on next Saturday…
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Very good thought provoking piece Shotts. I agree with those who have suggested the two are not in direct competition. Aaron can play so many positions that once he is on the team sheet anyone of about five players could lose out. Team set up, tactics and injuries could all play a part in selection and as we all know Arsene likes versatile players and Aarons greatest asset is his versatility.
The other thing to remember is our players wander all over the place, coming short, going wide, arriving in the box at different times to make it difficult for the opposition defences.
At the moment do we have an out and out striker no, is Mezut a typical no ten no, are our wingers wingers? Do we even have a DM in the makalale mould I would suggest not, so comparisons are difficult with our wandering minstrel’s
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Who left the door open?
Someone from the remedial class has sneaked in.
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stick to football manager alex, the real thing is not for you.
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Brief encounter,
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I’ll be honest, I almost gave this a pass. It feels a little bit like bait, and I’ve not been stellar in my ability to resist taking bait these days. Seems I always end up making myself or someone else angry. But, as usual the comments here are thoughtful and measured so I feel like it’s safe for me to wade in.
Conventional wisdom these days says Aaron doesn’t have a position. He’s not a CM (ask George what my opinion on that is), he needs to play more advanced, he needs to play where Mesut plays, he needs to play on the right, etc. I think Aaron has in fact had a position, and that position is Troubleshooter-in-Chief for the front six. Don’t have the right player for the right wing? Aaron can do it. Mesut needs a rest? Aaron can play #10. Flamini your only other choice in midfield? Aaron can handle it. Maybe this is why I feel such an affinity for him, as that should be my title at work as well. And Troubleshooter-in-chief can be a very gratifying thing to be. It’s usually greatly appreciated by management, and they tell you how grateful they are that you do it. But sometimes that position isn’t really appreciated by the rank and file (“what is it that you do all day, exactly?” Or maybe, “your passing stats aren’t that great”) And sometimes you find yourself a little jealous of your colleagues who have a more defined role and can be comfortable and shine in it. And you wonder if sacrificing yourself for the greater good isn’t all it’s cracked up to be.
Do I think Aaron feels this way? Of course I have no idea. But, I do know he’s a fighter. I feel for him, because this injury meant he lost the chance to build off his terrific showing at the Euros, and maybe stake his claim early to a more traditional role. And I think he would absolutely thrive in a team that’s firing like ours is. And I think he still can. I happen to think that place will be in central midfield. Plenty of people disagree with me. But everybody here agrees that Aaron does not and will not give up. He will fight. And we’ll see how it plays out. No one should harbor any doubts that I back him 100% (banned smiley thingy)
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Alabama: Yes, it is a bit of a bait, I admitted as much in my introduction. But there are many other bloggers and podcasters elsewhere speculating on Rambo’s future I felt it was useful to have a “thoughtful and measured” discussion here at PA. Thanks for biting. I was wondering how long you would resist.
PS: The word “baller” was invented for Santi Cazorla. What a magician! Thanks Millsy.
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no,thank you Shotts for the article!
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In his two favoured positions Arron is behind Mesut and Santi, well so what, who wouldn’t be?
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To prove my point that there are tweeters who are ready to stir up mischief amongst their followers:
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How the fuck does Theo/Xhaka have anything to do with Ramsey’s position?
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crystal balls!
flux laughed to see such thought and the opinion ran away with the moon!
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ha ha ha, joey barton acting all butt hurt that arsenal changed their minds about signing him from newcastle in 2011 – he ended up at qpr – after he got Gervinho sent off, with what jb admits was a dive. The funny thing is, Barton actually does not seem to understand why his play acting cost him a move to Arsenal. But we should not be surprised that he fails to see why, as its a running theme throughout his career, where he done one nasty thing after another, and never showed any sign of changing his ways. He is currently suspended by his club, Rangers.
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afcstuff @afcstuff 2h2 hours ago
Nacho Monreal plays his first game for Spain since the 1-0 loss in a friendly to South Africa on the 19th of November 2013. #afc
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I feel as though England will always struggle to play the way they dream and talk about playing, as opposed to how they play and the players they eulogise. The love English football has for the “Interrupters” and the distrust it has for “Play-makers” is the problem. “Interrupters” players like Cristiano Ronaldo,Steven Gerrard, Frank Lampard and A1 Interrupter in chief Bryan Robson, and now Delle Alli. The Interrupter is the embodiment of the “Roy Race” phenomenon or problem for English football. The bias toward this type of player is what in my opinion will always hold back English football. This can be seen by seen by the ignoring of Alex Iwobi since he was in the u18 team, and his ultimate loss (Probably for the best) to Nigeria. Aaron Ramsey is an interrupter he can never be a directly replacement for Santi (The play-maker), he can play the position but he will interpret it in a different way.Mr Wenger has always sought the balance and has always looked to keep this balance to play-makers, to keep control of games, where English football always leans towards interrupters.
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For those of you in need or five minutes diversion this Monday lunchtime have a look at this lashing of Robbie Savage delivered on Saturday by Football365;
http://www.football365.com/news/mediawatch-extra-robbie-savage-on-giggs
There is something hugely unlikeable about Savage, more so than any other of the punditti – I cannot articulate what the source of that extreme is, but I know it exists.
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After reading some comments on Theo Walcotts performance for England (I did not watch the game), I return to my previous post regarding Play-makers and Interrupters/interjectors. Theo classic interrupter will always suffer in a team set-up like England with its distrust of play-makers, even if Jack Wilshere plays it will not be enough.As any good team will focus on taking away what Wilshere has to offer, Thankfully they are showing trust in John Stones not everyone believes in Stones, he has shown great character to stick to his guns ,because he can be the play-maker in defence. If they could convince Harry Kane to be more like Tostao (A lot less greedy,more team orientated) that would add a play-maker to the front line. That would go a long way to improving Theos’ chances of playing to the standard he has achieved on a more consistent basis now at Arsenal for England.
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Great post Kelly.
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Arsenal Fixture News @AFCFixtureNews 50m50 minutes ago
Jonathon Moss has been appointed the referee for Saturday’s match against Swansea City.
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James @1GoldPLTrophy 2h2 hours ago
Anthony Taylor for Utd v Liverpool? The level of banter at the FA really is something special.
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anthony taylor who is from Wythenshawe, Greater Manchester is the ref for the man utd v liverpool game this weekend, nothing odd about that selection at all
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Watching the Dutch take on the French – good game of football- very even.
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commentatos up pogba’s arse all game
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A defeat for the Dutch – my word whatever happened to a country that used to churn out top quality footballers and top quality national sides without any obvious effort ?
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Dutch football is at a real low at the moment. did not make the euros, looking difficult to make the world cup, club football now second tier, youth teams doing nothing, and none of the sparkling talents we have come used to seeing them produce for the last 40 years
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