How often do we hear the old cliché “football is all about emotion”? While this may be used to explain the wild swings in opinions and attitudes of pre and even pubescent supporters of Arsenal Football Club, it can in no way excuse such conduct by the mainstream media as well as other opinion-leaders (bloggers, podcasters, etc) who pound the Arsenal beat in both print and electronic media. It took me a while in adult life to understand that exploiting emotions has been a longstanding practice of politicians and their stenographers in the media, who see a gullible, ignorant public as vital in maintaining their power and dominion over us. How else could they implement and sustain policies that are alien to the interests of the majority.
I apply the same paradigm to Arsenal-football as I do to current affairs. Four months ago, only four games into the season, after eking out a 0:1 victory over Newcastle, the mainstream-media went into hyperdrive with doom and gloom.
Alan Shearer, now a Match-of-the-Day supremo, opined:
“Not hard to judge Arsenal. They need a top class center forward.”
Danny Mills, Shearer’s frequent sideman on the Beeb, was equally prophetic:
“Arsenal are going to struggle this season.”
Arash Heckmat, who covered the game for the Mirror, had a gloomy narrative:
“There are still big question marks over Arsenal….”
Admittedly the Gunners did not have the best of start to the season. After 4 games they had scored three (3) and conceded three (3). Arsene admitted before the Newcastle game that performances had been “very average.”
In comparison Manchester City was on fire. Four games, four victories, scoring 10 goals (2.5 goals per game) and zero (0) goals conceded. Manchester City’s official twitter account bragged:
“City break club record with tenth consecutive league victory!”
Similarly, the media was blowing City’s trumpet. With the exception of DeBruyne, they had by that time done everything Wenger was later made infamous for apparently neglecting, i.e. making a massive spend on outfield players:
Sterling – £49M
Mangala – £32M
Delph – £8M
Otamendi – £33M
DeBruyne – £54.5M
That, girls and boys, adds up to a cool £176.5 million to supplement an already expensive squad containing the likes of Aguero, Silva, Toure and Kompany to name a few. Given such massive spending by our main title rival, on what is generally accepted are quality players, how can the media now say with any credibility that the quality of the Premier League is less than normal? Is it any coincidence that such a thesis gets traction because Arsenal are now top of the table due to the manager standing by the quality of his squad and refusing to spend wildly? Similarly, we currently have media whore and club parasite Piers Morgan flogging the meme that the FA Cup is no longer a big trophy conveniently after Arsenal has won it twice in succession and showing a strong commitment to winning it three in a row.
But I digress. Going back to late August-early September the MSM had established a narrative that big spending City was well on the way to smashing all before them and Arsenal was going to struggle. Some of us amateur bloggers, including yours truly, refused to drink the kool-ade. I said in my September blog:
“As with City and goal scoring, it is questionable whether this level can be sustained over the season given it is relatively the same midfield over the past 2-3 years.”
Since then they have gone from 2.5 to 1.95 Goals per game compared to a 3-year average of 2.2. Most importantly they are leaking goals, from a statistical impossible 0 GA per game to 1.05 which is above their 3-yr average of 0.96. Talk about being brought back to earth with a thud.
As for Arsenal, after reviewing the statistics, I tried to convince my readers that far from dying, Arsenal was very much alive and based on immediate past history would soon get the results that would put the club in title-winning contention. The proof is clearly in the pudding; four months later we are now top of the table.
After 20 games, relying solely on descriptive statistics, I have come to the conclusion that the club is doing well but is still under-performing in some key areas. The figures suggest it is reasonable to expect improved performances in the second half of the season but not as dramatic as between games 4 and 20. I will use the following series of graphs to make my point. Note that the information used is publicly available at Squawka.com and I have compiled the data and color coded the information as follows:
Red: 3-yr Average
Amber: 4-week Average (1st 4-weeks of 2015-16 EPL season)
Green : 20-week Average (1st 20-weeks of 2015-16 EPL season)
Graphic #1: Goals For Per Game
It was not long ago, for weeks after Newcastle, there was virtual panic inside and outside the Arsenalsphere because the club had stumbled out of the box with a mere 0.75 Goals Scored per game. Two competing narratives were “Giroud could never lead Arsenal to a title” and “Walcott could never be a central striker.” Even though the club had a three-year average of 1.85 goals per game with the mostly same combo, instead of concluding that the scoring rate was an extreme aberration, MSM-bloggers-podcasters in general instead chose to incite fans into demanding a new world-class striker. Four months later, with Giroud (10-goals) leading the way, AFC is scoring at an average of 1.7 goals per game and seemingly destined to meet our usual standard.
Graphic #2: Chances per Game
This is one metric that was simply off the charts at the end of August; AFC was creating an average of 16.25 chances per game compared to the prior three-year average of 11.71. The team has now regressed closer to the mean but clearly at a higher rate than previous years. Seems it is the Özil effect.
Graphic #3: Conversion Rate
This picture speaks more than a thousand words. Historically AFC converts chances at a near 16% clip and after Newcastle the MSM and its echo-chamber went into emotional overdrive as the team stumbled at 5%. It begs the question how could the media and their lemmings project that a top club like Arsenal would sustain such a low rate. Sixteen games later they are converting at 14%, just about 2% off the 3-year standard. As for that lamp-post Giroud, he is knocking them in at 20.9%. In comparison, Aguero, almost everybody’s PL benchmark, when fit manages 24.1% and Lewandowski, arguably Europe’s best striker, is at 20.3%.
Graphic #4: Shot Accuracy
The shot accuracy story is similar to conversion rate already discussed. Interestingly there is a perfect equivalence with Giroud’s shot accuracy at 50%, as measured by Squawka, compared to the club’s. Is there a statistician willing to do a correlation coefficient (“r”)? That is beyond the scope of this blog but it should make an interesting line of inquiry for those who need confirmation of Giroud’s current importance to the club.
Graphic #5: Goals Against Per Game
Finally, graphic #5 demonstrates that while AFC was unable to sustain a miserly 0.75 Goals Against after four games, the club is defending even better than it did in prior years, only conceding at 0.9 goals per game compared to 1 gpg. In a game of small margins, if that rate is sustained until May, the club would concede only 34 goals over the season. That would best any of the recent season’s efforts, practically Chelsea-esque who in the past three seasons conceded an average of 33.
From the data above, with no further injuries and some key players returning from the sick-bay, it is clear that Arsenal has the capacity to improve in all the key metrics that indicate success. The only exception I would make are those crazy Chance Creation numbers. Goal-scoring, in particular, I am convinced that with Alexis(soon returning to fitness), Giroud, Theo and Ramsey meeting their average numbers plus an improving Campbell, I can easily see us getting back to that 1.85 average. That means 36 more goals in 18 matches or 2 goals per match. Given our ability to hold teams to an average of one goal per game, such goal-scoring and defending is title winning form.
In the same breadth it must be recognized that that City has the capacity to sustain a high performance level and win the title. Those attacking players they signed are not chopped liver. It is well chronicled that their defending is the problem. Mangala and Otamendi must be an example of the biggest waste of £65 million by a football club, and an indictment of the mantra that a club must pay over the odds to improve their league position. Setting aside their profligacy, the data below clearly shows if MCFC can improve their goal scoring and defending even marginally they could be a real force.
| MCFC | 3-Yr Avg | 4 Games | 20 Games |
| GF per Game | 2.20 | 2.50 | 1.95 |
| Chances Per Game | 12.40 | 11.75 | 13 |
| Conversion Rate | 16% | 17% | 15% |
| Shot Accuracy | 48% | 60% | 52% |
| GA per Game | 0.96 | 0 | 1.05 |
But my focus is Arsenal, not City. I am concerned that the media narrative is settling for the sentiment that Arsenal will win the title. I must emphasize that in the prediction business, media sentiment is a contrary-indicator. Their standard procedure is to assume that the most recent results are a predictor of future performance. To the contrary, any serious student of the social sciences would have learnt that historical consistency is the only reliable indicator of future success. No wonder Arsene Wenger emphasizes consistency for himself and his teams. With clearly inferior squads during the barren years his teams were among the top 3 or 4, never less. In the past three years he has been able to acquire better players, and as evident by 2015 statistics (AFC being the team that earned most points in the calendar year), we can predict with a reasonable degree of certainty that with better quality players, Arsene’s team will either meet or exceed their 3-year average.
As I concluded four months ago: “Unlike the media, which thrives on emotion, in the silent statistical world, there are no headlines. There are no narratives. No excuses. No hope and no despair. Just data.” And that data suggests Arsenal has done well and will do better.
May cannot come too soon for me to see how right or wrong I am.
Positively Arsenal 
Well now I expect to win and will hold Shotta responsible if we don’t #noexcusses
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Steady as she blows.
First things first Liverpool away.
I’ll be fidgeting and gibbering my way through till Wednesday.
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Well analysed and written, Shotta. I believed in your conclusion too. Based on these facts and figures, I’m of the opinion that Arsenal or Man city will win the league……., but I think Arsenal will nick Man city to it with just few points. Thanks
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Brilliant, unarguable analysis superbly presented.
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Im with Steww in agreement Shotta.Thanks for all your work on this. It comes across as a good argument for the exclusion of pundits/punditry. Experts that arent experts!
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Excellent Shotta
And I agree with and “like” above comments from PG, Fins, Steww and Mills.
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great post!
stats apart, if we can manage to win our next two games, the title will be ours to lose.
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excellent read and analysis. But arent we supposed to be scared stiff of Spurs and not just City…..afterall, thats what the media keep telling us!
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Love those stats but we have alot of hard away games
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TEAM NEWS: ROSICKY, OSPINA AND ALEXIS
Arsène Wenger reported the following team news ahead of the Premier League game against Liverpool:
on the team news…
We will have to test Ospina who was not available on Saturday. We have Rosicky back in training so the situation is getting better.
on Ospina…
Ospina is a muscular issue and we have to check if he will be available or not. Overall I think he has a 60/40 chance to make it.
on Tomas Rosicky…
He will be back in full training this week, it is fantastic because he has been out for very long and it is good to know that a player of that calibre is back in our squad.
on Alexis…
We think he will be short for Wednesday, he has a chance to be available for Sunday [against Stoke]. He is always keen to play. If you listen to Alexis, he can always play – even when he is injured. We try to be cautious. With a muscular injury you never exactly how big the risk but he is very close. If you look at him training he is very close.
Copyright 2016 The Arsenal Football Club plc. Permission to use quotations from this article is granted subject to appropriate credit being given to http://www.arsenal.com as the source
Read more at http://www.arsenal.com/news/news-archive/20160111/team-news-rosicky-ospina-and-alexis#O8lBWq8uzkzCtAf6.99
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Fine work Shotta, splendid read and a brilliant analysis.
Now, what do Mel’s waters tell us …?
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Excellent work Shotta.
I wouldn’t be I a massive rush to reach May. Let’s enjoy the journey.
Perhaps more defensive clean sheets (9 already) and a few dozen quality goals await us on the journey.
We will have Alexis, Santi, Le Coq, Wilshere and Welbeck helping out and the soon to be announced El Neney – and looking at our youths – there is quality shining through in that department too.
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Mel’s waters are sprinkled up the back of some poor Tranny in Soho.
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Afternoon Shotts and another formidable assembly of data with cogent analysis attached.
What intrigues me is why data patterns suddenly, inexplicably, flip. PL champions CFC, most people (grudging) favourites to retain their crown this season yet suddenly rendered incapable of winning even a simple game. Or Leicester, awful until April 15, doomed to relegation, but since exceptional results – maybe even better than ours over 9 months.
Is there a term, a formula, to account for the random 180degree turn Shotts ?
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It’s called hubris, Andy.
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or in Chelsea’s case – Jose’s comeuppance.
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Thanks to all of you for your kind comments so far. I should confide I was hoping to whip up a 1000 word follow-up to my September blog but the data, although silent, gave such a strong message I was forced to be its megaphone to the tune of nearly 1,700 words. Of course, if we fail to win the title I will be pelted off this blog. Due to the strength of the data, I was willing to take the risk of damage to my reputation. Apparently not many in the Arsenalsphere share this conviction based on the number of responses to this blog so far. Maybe I should do another Giroud blog to get my numbers up (a job in the MSM beckons).
A5: I am tempted to say that Chelsea’s dramatic fall from the pinnacle is an aberration. But many keen observers have noted that their performances have been in decline since the second half of the 2015-16 season, especially after that 5-3 trashing at the hands of Spurs on January 1, 2015. There is a trend in there somewhere. Pochetinno’s tactic of aggressive pressing and counter-attacking showed they were vulnerable going forward as they lack speed in the mid-field to recover from losing the ball. Mourinho compensated by becoming more conservative but this fundamental weakness of CFC was frequently exploited by most EPL teams in this new season. It is commonly recognized that most PL teams now have the talent to excel at pressing and counter-attacking. It is still too early to say whether Huddink has found a setup that gives CFC a chance to realize their true potential.
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balon d’or tonight. but i’m with arsene on the award. team sport shouldnt celebrate individual but the team. for instance if andwhen we have won the title, i’ll rather want every member of the team to be celebrated rather just one or two squad members.
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well done shotta… i too do not like the nonchalant way the media now suddenly expect us to win the title as though they even knew all along.. trying to set us up for a fall but we will surprise them!
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What a superb piece Shotta. I read it this morning on route by rail to Manchester but had intermittent internet so gave up trying to post my response. Let’s hope the trend you describe continues to hold and delivers the Premier League. The implications of Arsenal winning will be far reaching and the debates will be very interesting…..
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well we can cope with Burnley surely
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Yes ts, one would hope so. Opportunity for another look at Iwobi and Adelaïde I would think but Burnley are going quite well in the Championship and are not to be taken lightly. They’ve just knocked out Middlesbrough. No 4th round shock please.
All the top teams got fairly simple draws, even if they are away from home, but United could well come unstuck against Derby who are playing very well.
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The 4th round is scheduled for 30th of January, too soon for Jack and Wele to be ready, but ideal for Tommy.
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yeah.. a great return day for rosicky and maybe even Sanchez can wait until then? too impatient i think.
what is funny is about fans saying AW should not have listened to him but should have rested him.. and now when he is seemingly following their advise and choosing not to rush him back, they think it is cos AW is lying about his return time line!
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Just looking through that Cup draw again, I don’t think it could have been much more boring.
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In the particular case of the specialist and his relationship with clubs and with high profile flair players the data patterns are consistent.
Unfortunately whilst events this season at Gazprom-upon-Fulham ended far too soon for my entertainment and whilst I hoped against hope that Mourinho would continue into next season and beyond unfortunately the sequence was all too predictable. Players like robben and hazard have a maximum shelf life of two years with the Goner’s greatest manager.
Conversely Ozil was happy and mollycoddled by the special one, a mark of the high esteem he has for the Arsenal player and the players own character? After all Mourinho took Ozil away from Arsene and off to Madrid and bought him in as his very own galactico. Now there’s a variation worth making a note of.
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REPORT- WILLOCK STRIKES EQUALISER AS ARSENAL U21S DRAW WITH WEST BROM
U21 Premier League- Division 2
West Bromwich Albion 1 (Roberts) Arsenal 1 (C. Willock)
Screen shot 2016-01-11 at 20.51.38
Arsenal U21s came from behind to salvage a point in a hard-fought contest against their West Bromwich Albion counterparts this evening.
West Brom took advantage of some weak defending to take the lead through Tyler Roberts, but Chris Willock’s second half strike drew Arsenal level after Dan Crowley had earlier missed a penalty and the game finished 1-1.
Coach Steve Gatting made five alterations to the side that beat Blackburn Rovers last week, with Marc Bola, Tafari Moore, Glen Kamara, Ismael Bennacer and Stephy Mavididi all coming into the side in place of Tyrell Robinson, Alex Iwobi, Mikel Arteta, Jeff Reine-Adelaide and Donyell Malen.
There was also a call-up on the bench for first-year scholar Marcus Agyei-Tabi, who is now known as Marcus McGuane.
Huddart
Moore-Bielik-Pleguezuelo-M. Bola
Kamara-Bennacer
Sheaf-Crowley-C. Willock
Mavididi
Subs: Malen (for Sheaf, 83)
Not used: Keto, Eyoma, Mourgos, McGuane.
Both these sides have been in impressive form this season and are in contention for promotion to the top tier of the U21 Premier League.
The opening exchanges were rather incoherent, with both sides struggling to assert themselves on proceedings.
Arsenal, perhaps as a consequence of fielding a much-changed line up, found it difficult to garner any attacking momentum early on.
The first clear-cut chance of the game resulted in the first goal, and it was West Brom who scored it, with Tyler Roberts pouncing upon some lapse defending before calmly slotting the ball beyond the reach of Ryan Huddart.
That setback appeared to spark Arsenal into life and the young Gunners attempted to stage an instant response, but nothing came of a neat move involving Crowley and Willock.
Mavididi then had an effort blocked and Crowley shot wide as Arsenal upped the ante, but at the other end Moore, who was rewarded with a new contract last week, made an impeccably timed sliding challenge to deny Adil Nabi.
There were further opportunities for Arsenal prior to the interval, with Bennacer shooting wide, Moore’s teasing cross causing problems and Crowley sending an effort off target, but West Brom held on to take their lead into half-time.
Arsenal started the second half brightly, with Ben Sheaf, who was deployed on the right wing on this occasion, seeing a shot saved.
It wasn’t long until West Brom started to re-assert themselves, however, with Huddart having to make several impressive saves in quick succession before the hosts were eventually flagged offside.
By now the game was rather open and Arsenal sensed an opportunity when Willock burst down the left flank, but his effort was deflected for a corner.
Arsenal were awarded a penalty shortly afterwards when Krystian Bielik had his shirt pulled by Shaun Donnellan, but Crowley’s spot kick was saved by Jack Rose and the search for the equaliser went on.
Thankfully, the wait didn’t last much longer, with Willock seizing the initiative and driving forwards before finishing adroitly.
The youngster, who was an un-used substitute for the first-team on Saturday, has been in tremendous form at U21 level in recent weeks.
Arsenal then sought to take the lead, but Mavididi couldn’t quite connect with Sheaf’s cross.
At the other end Huddart had to be alert to keep out Nabi’s effort, with Arsenal then sending on Malen as they went on the hunt for the winning goal.
It was West Brom who seemed more like scoring, however, with Huddart again having to race off his line to clear the danger, but it ended honours even.
Arsenal’s next game at this level is at home to Swansea City on January 22nd.
Posted in Uncategorized on January 11, 2016 by Jeorge Bird. Leave a comment
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Bielik was back to playing at CB?
Perhaps Chambers is intended for midfield after all.
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Great post, Shotta. I think we’ll get progressively stronger as players start coming back from injury and other teams start tiring later on in the season.
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Excellent read Shotts,I honestly can’t call Wednesday,Anfield under the lights is a special place,if we don’t concede any comedy goals you always fancy us to score,I wonder if he’ll start Arteta or Flamini? 3 points in the bank would be massive for us going to the Orcs..talk about stating the obvious,got to admit I’m nervous about this whole week.
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Mel. seems risky u being nervous about a game talk-less of the whole week? that translates to 2 games…
don’t worry, am not nervous about the week so that’s likely good nervous from u end!
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It’s complicated: I hadn’t really thought about Bowie much at all for many years. Occasionally I listened to a song, but to be honest haven’t much cared for his work since Aladdin Sane. He moved on with his music into areas I didn’t much enjoy. To me it became rather old and over-produced, his early music stayed fresh. Or at least that is was I thought. I suppose I didn’t like the idea of him getting old, being mortal. So now he is dead, and that hurt me last night, because I had to realise that I am now old too and the bit inside me I thought was forever young was not young at all, but merely built on artifice and memory.
And kids today will not know who he is and it is probably right that they don’t, and should they listen to him they wouldn’t see what all the fuss is about. And in 50 years’ time they will listen to a Radio 2 tribute to Ed Sheeran and so it goes on, which perhaps only goes to prove Pete Brown right.
Things may come and things may go, but the art school dance goes on forever.
And of course the beauty of watching The Arsenal is that while the names may change the players stay exactly the same age, so it’s easier to still be as excited as those mornings of all mornings when Charles Buchanan’s Football Monthly dropped through the letter box.
Et in arcadia
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That’s the spirit,Team Spirit!
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FH, inside you are forever as young as you wish to be, it has nothing to do with trends or doing what the kids are doing but how much we keep our hearts and minds open.But to what?
To me its being positive and yet being wise too.Shag to Pete Townshend.he was a plastic Mod anyway.
In a way since the boomers we have all been cursed with a love-in with the fountain of youth, hoping to die before being old, but why? without old there can be no young,all ages have their benefits, and we now in our world desperately need wisdom not the energy of youth. I think we need kindness and compassion in a critical hard core capitalist world where “everyones right”,except my old fav.relativity said “no you aint”.
The boomers cursed all before them and plenty afterwards and have burnt certain daft ideas into societies psyche that we are still paying for.
Personally I liked the older people who were my Grandparents, they often spoke shite but they(as Steww pointed out the other week)were children of their time, and they lived in a world of different conditioning.
I wasnt into Bowie except the Mod stuff of the 60s, but it is sad, and for us it will not be the same for ever.The next 20 years are going to be tough in some ways, and after that? music culture has certainly changed.
I think Bowie in some ways was quite dignified in the way he got older,its tough for musicians outside of classical music and experimental music to get older.
I dont think Waugh could have written so beautifully about his younger days without the harsh polemics of the war and feeling older and depressed.How the youngsters are ever going to cope with being old now, is beyond me.
To me you seem a young person,yet with a lot of experience and thought, thats a good thing in my book.Young and yet older.
Uncalled for but hope it might help.
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There are some positively navel gazing posts today…..
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i don’t think it’s harsh or nostalgic or wistful to critise Bowie’s dance music especially his “Jungle” or “Drum & Bass” efforts, which was my first exposure when growing up.
He was not a percusionist.
Took me a decade to build up the courage to try and listen to his songs after that, and fair to say he was a talented singer songwriter and more as AW said, but not a drumming guru.
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Goonersphere.com @Goonersphere 5h5 hours ago
Heroes is such a good song. They should play it at the Emirates like they used to play Wonder Of You http://youtu.be/Tgcc5V9Hu3g
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it takes even more courage to listen to the “laughing gnome”. Or the version by the bloke pretending to be Ken Dodd.
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Ed Aarons @ed_aarons 1h1 hour ago
Told that Mohamed Elneny is still in Paris but should complete his move to Arsenal tomorrow if all goes to plan. Permit ok… #afc
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Rosicky is back in full training
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afcstuff @afcstuff 43m43 minutes ago
Most #afc appearances (current squad):
Walcott 324
Ramsey 248
Rosicky 245
Flamini 236
Koscielny 228
Mertesacker 194
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http://www.arsenal.com/news/news-archive/20160112/arsenal-train-ahead-of-liverpool-match?
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Who da funk is Ed Aarons?
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Really great seeing Tomas back in training.
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Arsenal vs Burnley.
A certain Joseph Anthony Barton Esq. plies his trade for the Clarets these days.
Always a pure delight to see him visit the Emirates.
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Joey b better be out for whatever reason for that match,, the less seen of him the better!
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Jon Jo Shelvey – how can any club do that to their own supporters ?
Shocking
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Andy Nic
A 19-year-old and telling Sir Alex of the F-word, that he is an old fart or similar.
That was in 2012, and being sent off at Old Trafford.
Shelvey, apologised later so Liverpool sold the lad.
Liverpool have won only 2 games out of 17. The Liverpool view.
OR,
Liverpool have lost only 6 out of the last 17. The Arsenal view.
And
DAROVAR Dips • a day ago]
I would play Lucas tell him to stick to Ozil. Cut him off and you cut Arsenal off (No Sanchez, Coquelin or Cazorla). Can can deal with Girouds height. Although I would like to see Can as a midfielder in future, until our injury crisis holds up he should be in defense- especially against Arsenal.
Over to Stew!
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Watching Bournemouth vs Hammers to see how Benik does.
Atkinson refereeing.
Ho ho.
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Andy Carroll off injured already.
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