301 Comments

The League Table Doesn’t Lie

By: Shotta, @shotta_gooner

 Sports journalism is renowned for clichés that are repeated ad hominem by its practitioners as a substitute for substantive analysis.  It is my observation that that these rhetorical tricks are successfully used because they contain an element of truth which is undeniable. But, more times than not, the assorted hacks and pundits who are supposedly sharing with us these self-evident “truths” are also trying to conceal a lie.

Take Tony Gale, for example, who was doing color commentary on Sunday for my tv feed; just prior to Theo scoring his hat-trick, he was complaining the game showed how much AFC needed to go into the transfer market for world class players, while Walcott and Wilshere, who had just returned from injury, were ripping WBA to shreds in a world-class performance. Yes, every team could do with a world class players but Tony Gale failed to tell the truth, i.e.  Arsenal had very little need to go to the transfer market. On Sunday the lie was immediately exposed, but unfortunately most times it is left unchallenged, leading many to form the wrong conclusions and ultimately to choose a self-defeating course of action

Notwithstanding the instant rebuff of Tony Gale, with the League just ended, I now expect the hacks and their fellow travelers, to use our standing in the league table to form a narrative that Arsenal needs three or four world class transfers. This was famously previewed three-weeks ago by our own Titi Henry from his well remunerated perch on Sky Sports, conveniently reversing his prognostication two weeks earlier. But Henry is not alone in phalanx of famous ex-gunners with the same mantra. In the run-up to Sunday’s  last game of the season, Ray Parlour said the very same while on Talk Sport alongside Adrian Durham, the latter having made a media career by trolling Arsenal supporters.  By the way, Durham’s current windup is that Arsenal did not improve over the past season.

According to the hacks, Arsenal, by finishing 3rd in the table, made no significant improvement over last year when they finished 4thwith 79 points (troll-time on Talk Sport). Chelsea supposedly made much more progress by adding 8 points to last year’s total to win the league. Ergo, the solution is to follow in Chelsea’s footsteps by signing a “world class” forward, midfielder and goal-keeper.

Pos

Team

Pld

W

D

L

GF

GA

GD

Pts

1

Chelsea

38

26

9

3

73

32

41

87

2

Man City

38

24

7

7

83

38

45

79

3

Arsenal

38

22

9

7

71

36

35

75

4

Man Utd

38

20

10

8

62

37

25

70

5

Spurs

38

19

7

12

58

53

5

64

6

Liverpool

38

18

8

12

52

48

4

62

In my day, one of the earliest lessons in high school mathematics was “how to lie with statistics”. Actually it is how to lie with data. By conducting the most elementary analysis, i.e. by comparing the changes in league position of the top 6 of 2014 with that of 2015, unearthed some very revealing information.  Take a gander below.

Manchester City

Yr

W

D

L

GF

GA

GD

Pts

Pos*

2014

27

5

6

102

37

65

86

1

2015

24

7

7

83

38

45

79

2

Difference

-3

2

1

-19

1

-20

-7

-1

% Change

-11%

40%

17%

-19%

3%

-31%

-8%

-5%

Liverpool

2014

26

6

6

101

50

51

84

2

2015

18

8

12

52

48

4

62

6

Difference

-8

2

6

-49

-2

-47

-22

-4

% Change

-30%

40%

100%

-48%

-5%

-72%

-26%

-20%

Chelsea

2014

24

7

7

68

41

27

79

3

2015

26

9

3

73

32

41

87

1

Difference

2

2

-4

5

-9

14

8

2

% Change

8%

33%

-67%

5%

-18%

27%

10%

10%

Arsenal

2014

24

7

7

68

41

27

79

4

2015

22

9

7

71

36

35

75

3

Difference

-2

2

0

3

-5

8

-4

1

% Change

-8%

29%

0%

4%

-12%

30%

-5%

5%

Everton

2014

21

9

8

61

39

22

72

5

2015

12

11

15

48

50

-2

47

11

Difference

-9

2

7

-13

11

-24

-25

-6

% Change

-38%

29%

100%

-19%

27%

-89%

-32%

-30%

Tottenham

2014

21

6

11

55

51

4

69

6

2015

19

7

12

58

53

5

64

5

Difference

-2

1

1

3

2

1

-5

1

% Change

-10%

11%

13%

5%

5%

5%

-7%

5%

Manchester United

2014

19

7

12

64

43

21

64

7

2015

20

10

8

62

37

25

70

4

Difference

1

3

-4

-2

-6

4

6

3

% Change

5%

50%

-36%

-4%

-12%

100%

9%

15%

 Chelsea achieved a 10% improvement in points by realizing 2 more wins (8% gain). A 67% reduction in losses was split between 2 draws and 2 wins. Yet according to the pundits they smashed the League.

Arsenal in contrast had a similar reduction in wins vs Chelsea’s gain but the reduction in losses only showed up in the draw column. We all know the points-allocation in football prioritizes wins. As for the suggestion that the defense is horrible and the goalkeeping porous, there were 9 or 18% less goals conceded over the prior year. The goal difference improved 30% second only, percentage-wise, to United.

City ‘s demise from 1st to 2nd was due to 11% less wins.  The raw numbers would suggest a marginal change of two losses and one draw but the numbers identify the key deficit was in goal-scoring which declined by 19% and their goal difference down by 31%.

The most alarming change in fortunes was on Merseyside. Liverpool is the headliner. To the acclaim of a raft of pundits, many with connection to the club, they splashed the Suarez cash on an array of transfer targets hyped by the media, most notably Mario Balotelli whom they are now quick to disown. A 30% reduction in wins, 100% increase in losses, 48% reduction in goals scored led to a 26% reduction in points, second-only to Everton.  The latter club’s demise was just as catastrophic with 38% less wins and 100% more losses, leaking more and scoring less goals. Yet Roberto Martinez was tagged by the end-of-an-eraists as a Wenger successor.

Finally Manchester United, who won the 2014 transfer sweepstakes, spending £170million on the likes of Falcao, DiMaria (remember him?), Blind, Rojo and Herrera, but only improved by a single more win over the Moyes era. At least they had 36% less losses but turned 3 out of 4 into draws. The end result was a gain of 3 positions in the table. Maybe another £170 million will get them to 1st, failing which they might do a Liverpool.

There is a lot more one could do with this data but I leave that to the readers of PA. Already there is a barrage of mischief and misinformation at large by those trying to discredit the current squad (Giroud, and Ospina seem the favorite targets) and the progress being made by them and Wenger to become truly able to challenge for the title. With rare exceptions the pundits fail to acknowledge that we were handicapped by injuries at the start of the 14-15 season and not by a lack of talent.

But as one other cliché put it: figures never lie, liars figure.

301 comments on “The League Table Doesn’t Lie

  1. 23. My point is you can point to any singular event and claim it proves weakness.

    Like

  2. Your expectations are you problem. Ozil meets mine, and more.

    Liked by 1 person

  3. “23. My point is you can point to any singular event and claim it proves weakness.”

    we agree then..however i felt ozil’s supposed weakness was stemming not from a singular event but his overall approach.

    “Your expectations are you problem. Ozil meets mine, and more.”

    Fair enough..can’t argue with that..could i please ask you if you think hes fulfilling his potential and if you think he can manage his fitness better?

    Like

  4. TS : . Does cech or Castillas significantly improve us such that we can risk squad disruption to bring them in. You insist that cech, being world class is automatically superior to what we have.

    yes to both. big players, big winners ..none of ours has reached a similar stage or looks likely to.

    we have talented youths of our own coming up, why should we displace them for him?

    if you mean martinez i agree.. chesney may also have talent but he is a silly boy/man. fabianski was good too. fabianksi and ospina dont have much to seperate i think…
    having talented youth is one thing, having proven winners another.

    in your other paragraph ..if i get it correctly youre saying that the players we have suit the style we want to play. ok granted… what happens when the style we want to play becomes ineffective or players unable to break down opposition? someone needs ot save the day there…its wenger talking about how the game becomes about the individual there….

    i agree 100% on reus and vidal..messis they are not but for their roles/positions they are truly special players.

    p.s hey tim i was not even referring to her as ive told her that she was not the one who wrote ‘ those who think X are Y’ …. but as the song goes …if the cap fits let them wear it

    Like

  5. Yes, I think he does both. Then again, I dont watch him train, so I dont know he’s a slacker.

    Like

  6. Your expectations are you problem. Ozil meets mine, and more

    ok boss but youre not alone in the stadium or in the whole world of arsenal fans….. he might meet your expectations (dont know what those are btw ) but maybe he does not meet mine..( before you get impatient, you dont know what my expectations are either ….)

    will you hold it against me and call me clueless and offend me that i dont know football? heh…

    thats the point im trying to make …..

    has it not occured to you that we do know some football and though we can recognise quality on the ball its other things we look at too?

    is that rocket science?

    Like

  7. perfect..answers my question. thanks so much.

    “Then again, I dont watch him train, so I dont know he’s a slacker.”

    i never meant/insinuated he is a slacker so please let me know why that is not an irrelevant comment, if you bother that is..if at all i called him a smoker..hes constantly running/moving all the time..he obviously tries extremely hard..

    however please pay attention to the fact that hes found wanting many times in terms of burst of speed after several minutes into the game and that he loses strength in dribble/tackle faster than other players. these are signs of a smoker; this along with the fact that there have been many reports that he smokes made me say there is a very high percentage he smokes.

    Like

  8. no asrhavin23 fuck his fitness..off course he is fit…its whether he has the COJONES to do what the team needs when necessary. i did not see much against monaco ( both games) united or chelsea ….

    and that goes for all players not just ozil….

    i select ozil on purpose because they all parade him like he is the crossbreed of zidane bergkamp xavi pirlo and schneider all rolled into one…with a little bit of kaka baggio and totti and del pierro with litmanen

    time is on his side so he might well make history for us but i wont praise him like a god until he has done it… bring us the champions league mesut and we will call our sons your name….. heh…

    Like

  9. Why don’t you talk to me, Hunter? Who were you referring to, then? Whomever it was, doesn’t change the fact that it was a sexist comment. But given your general tone, I’m not sure I should have been surprised.

    Liked by 1 person

  10. because ever since you complained about me patronising when you in fact had patronised me first about support i realised there is no point……

    Like

  11. I sense a change in the air

    Like

  12. lol ..phil collins ?

    Like

  13. don’t take this too seriously as this post is written on a lighter note:

    things that should be banned here:
    a. obviously condescending sarcasm [let the good respectful sarcasm remain]
    b. disrespect towards posters.
    c. abuse on Arsenal players as we invest a lot of emotion into supporting this team [measured criticism should obviously remain]

    things that should not be banned here:
    🙂

    Like

  14. There’s plenty of point. I’m willing to entertain all discussion of why you might have used the term “housewife” or what you meant by it. I told you what I meant by “support”. I even gave you my definition, if I recall.

    Liked by 1 person

  15. and music ! put it as number (d)

    Like

  16. no i wont alabama sorry…… i explained perfectly well…what can i say to those who complain to me about patronising when minutes ago they have patronised first about something else?…its laughable. there is obviously difficulty in communication so i chose peaceful path of silence and not getting in your ways. now you press me to answer you like im interrogated?…. absurd…

    Like

  17. Ok. I’ll just assume my assumptions are correct then. Carry on.

    Liked by 1 person

  18. While we’re on the subject, though, I never patronized you, by the definition I meant.

    Patronize: treat with an apparent kindness that betrays a feeling of superiority.

    I tried being kind a while back, but I’ve given up on that recently. I should perhaps go back to it.

    Liked by 1 person

  19. Worst comment section ever.

    Like

  20. @blayeshayest: Some comments may have been worst on PA in content but it is certainly has been a revelation.

    Like

  21. @shotta_gooner
    Just out of curiosity I counted and someone made 49/120 posts generally stating our players are soft and we should replace them with aging stars past their prime while being instigative towards posters I generally enjoy reading. Yawn…….

    Like

  22. Sav from Australia's avatar

    A23 makes alot of sense. Certainly got me thinking.

    Like

  23. “however i still think ozil can be a more complete player who could manage his body better”

    There was an effort made to explain towards the irate medallion thumping Greek that the Turk was not all evil, that this weak softy chose to come to the PL and specifically AW at AFC over the likes of PSG for this very reason.

    As you can see above the irate Greek does not appear to like the Turk.

    I trust that this above consideration as to why this player moved from genteel environs of Madrid to the team that gets kicked the most does not need to be repeated again as it is bleedin’ obvious.

    Like

  24. Sav from Australia's avatar

    I was watching Rick Stein’s cooking show and apparently Greeks and Turks have alot of food in common…[appropriate emoticon]

    Liked by 1 person

  25. Sav from Australia's avatar

    I am a layman in terms of football tactics and what not, but if Ozil is the enabler, does Arsenal really need him to be the one to score the decisive goal or decisive clearance, etc. Don’t we have others who can play that role? If he has a specific footballing character, can’t we just say okay thats him, and then move on.

    Like

  26. Sav I can’t tell the difference myself. Tastes good!

    Like

  27. Sav
    There are eleven players in a team. This great sport is not only designed to allow people of different physiques (e.g.: Özil is not the same as Samba, or even Bergkamp…) to play together. You are allowed to have different personalities too!

    Like

  28. E.g.:

    The fascinating and complimentary Özil-Muller combo just lef Germany to the World Cup. I hope people were watching…

    Like

  29. Sav from Australia's avatar

    Can I start a related discussion to yesterday…
    Okay I’m not sure how to explain myself, but I will try with as few words as possible. What defines character on the football pitch?

    There have been a few discussions of late about ‘big players’ who step up when needed. And I have seen examples of big players who do not step up, have not stepped up, etc.

    So I started to think. What defines character on the football pitch…

    The commentators on Sky and the ‘journalists’ in England seem to think that character means running around a lot, jumping into tackles and being generally aggressive.

    Others say it is a player stepping up when needed. Like Messi destroying Bayern in the a few minutes in the first leg this season.

    However, when players fail to influence the game in big moments, can we say they lack character. Messi missed some really good chances in last year’s final against Germany. Does that make him a player who lacks character? Were his injuries from the season just past playing an impact?

    If we are thinking about English based players, Yaya Toure springs to mind. I remember people – filthy lying media types – saying he was lazy earlier this season. Ignoring that he had played a season in the league, went to the World Cup, came back for the league, then went to AFCON (and won it I think?), then came back for the league again. I cannot recall any specific injuries but surely that man was tired.

    Is it that people want players to be competitors who want to win and do what it takes to achieve the win? But I wouldn’t want Arsenal players diving/kicking/punching to achieve victory. But do they really need to…

    What say the assembled and distinguished delegates? Whats this character business all about…

    Like

  30. Sav from Australia's avatar

    @Fins 7:53 am and 7.54 am
    Liked! I can’t get the Like button to work.

    Liked by 1 person

  31. “Messi missed some really good chances in last year’s final against Germany. Does that make him a player who lacks character?”

    Nope! But. Just like Özil at the start of the season when the irate medallion thumper began his inane bleating he was simply unfit. I don’t need to speculate that Messi is a smoker. He had a knock, like Aguero, at the end of the season. Not enough time to recover said fitness as AW explained to the worlds media before the WC.

    So the world was denied the final we should’ve seen because sports broadcasters are doing to football what they’ve done with cricket – over saturation.

    I wouldn’t blame anyone’s “character” for a lack of fitness, or the over saturation of the schedule. That would be as dumb as praising Luiz on the eve of the WC SF.

    Like

  32. Sav from Australia's avatar

    Mourinho’s positive image in the English press is ludicrous. They make him out to be so much more intelligent in his words than he is in reality.

    “Jose Mourinho pokes fun at rivals Arsenal, Manchester United and City during speech”

    “Chelsea manager Jose Mourinho mocks top-four rivals”

    A much more appropriate headline is “Classness egoist makes vain attempt to stroke own ego in public”

    Like

  33. Sav I’ve said the above in different forms over the last few weeks without response, we’ve simply witnessed a change of direction (from bleating about Giroud to bleating about Walcott – imagine trying to tell me how good Walcott is! Given the online observable record, that is crazy behaviour!).

    He’s been trolling.

    Like

  34. Sav, Difficult to get hold of is “character”. On the one hand there is a value in a team game of a noisy on field boss, an organiser who says ” you stand there, you mark him, i will take the free kick etc” especially if the team is up against it and panic is in the air. You have to command respect though, you have to lead. Think Phillip Lahm.

    The problem is however that too much shouting and pointing, fist waving and vein bursting facials can be a cover for inadequate performance, poor technical skills and a tendency not to do your own job properly, but instead trying to do everyone else’s for them. Take Robbie Keane and the older Rio Ferdinand – all mouth and no trousers.

    By coincidence I read a great quote on the topic of “character”in an obituary in today’s Times from a chap called Denis Eadie who recently pegged out at the age of 98. He wa writing about his CO who died fighting the Japanese in the jungles of Burma in 1944.

    “Every man is different — each has his own character,” he wrote. “This is a blessing — in disguise at times — for as Jack Payne says, ‘You can’t have a good Dance Band with saxophones only’.”

    Liked by 2 people

  35. my little piece on this small matter of ozil and expection from fans (hunter).
    expectation sometimes comes with the price as well as wage of a player. amount paid to acquire a particular player is sometime driven up by the need of a the clubs in question i.e the selling club and the buying club. as well as the pressure from fans on the manager to spend the money and get a particular player at all cost. all these put together are factors in ozils case. he came not only on club record but the league’s record fee. so the expectation was high. the fee was so high because the fans (hunter) wanted wenger to make a big statement to prove we belong among the big boys. i’m sure deep down wenger’s heart, he knows he paid a little over for ozil’s worth.
    ozil has never been a guy who wins game on his own and never will be. the only thing i dont agree with is to refer to him as our best player. that also drives up the expectation.

    Like

  36. except you are messi or ronaldo, no player is worth more than £40m. as no one player bar these two can win games on their own. we got alexis for 32m because wengerwas not under so much pressure at the time while united got di maria for 60m because the were under so much pressure from fans.

    Like

  37. Layksite what do you mean to try and imply when you say

    “Deep down in his heart”

    The gaffer said he overpaid by about ten mill when he signed him. That comments are on the record. It was understandable then (before he’d played) and it’s understandable now.

    Btw do Maria is the record signing, approx. for x2 the rate for your Ozil’s or Sanchez’s. Or some signing made to clean laundry like Mangala, Luiz, Willian etc.

    Like

  38. Quite a contrast to the exit of the specialist in signing players signed to Specoal Agents from Madrid with Carlo.
    Players and press alike singing his praises, standing ovations etc.

    is it a reasonable conclusion that many British hacks are more interested in the agents then the football? As Benitez said compared to hacks elsewhere they rarely discuss the actual football.

    Just an observation. I see the FBi have been busybeen busy.

    Like

  39. finsbury, i think i missed the comment by wenger at the time. i was right then to suggest wenger over paid. but i think the reason he overpaid was still the reason i gave. pressure from fans especially after theloss against villa.
    why put city in the equation? them, chelski and psg are just small clubs who want to do everything to become big clubs.

    Like

  40. Arsene would never react to the will of idiot fans.

    Like

  41. Sav from Australia's avatar

    On a non-football related note, has anyone heard of a Ugandan called Yash Tandon. I just saw an interview on RT International relating to this book:

    http://www.orbooks.com/catalog/trade-war/

    It is about Africa and trade and well…Mind blown.

    Like

  42. “especially after theloss against villa.”

    I’m afraid that is nothing but fragrant gibberish. If you believe that then you have deceived yourself. FYI AW made that comment on overpaying to explain the delay with the Bale haggle – the logic is clear and concise. The reasoning behind his comments is not a mystery. If you missed the comments then I understand that you have not had enough information regarding the Ozil transfer and hence
    that could explain your misunderstanding.

    here’s another quote from Alan Sugar

    “Arsene Wenger knows the market”

    Better then any of us. He was happy to overpay because Madrid had just spunked stupid money on a player who’s not done much more then Walcott in his career (which made the bleating about Walcott even more strange, it’s not like he is under appreciated here save for by the evil anicoll and maybe others but who cares?) , Wales’ second best player.

    Seeing as AFC snipped up Rambo or five odd million perhaps aw just felt sorry or Madrid? That makes more sense then that poorly considered Villa meme you have bought into.

    Like

  43. Here’s a guess. Bear with me.

    The manager who coached Henry and Viera from cradle to grave. From 18ish to when they couldn’t hack the PL grind – most of us would understand that to be relative to fitness etc sciatica, wearing limbs, and some would interpret that to reflect “character” (please don’t laugh!), I choose to guess that he knows what the player needs to add to his game.

    I understand. It’s a crazy consideration for some. “Crazy”. Heh.

    A second guess:
    Perhaps that is why players like Ozil and Sanchez chose AFC over the lucre from a petro-club?

    Two guesses?
    OmG I’ve really let the cat run free amongst the pidgeon shite now.

    Like

  44. However, when players fail to influence the game in big moments, can we say they lack character.

    well its impossible to infuence all big momments …it goes with averages….

    youve seen messi do it 50 times already…he did it against rio and vidic.. he did it again at wembley..countless times in real-barca fixtures..he did it against us…

    when has ozil ever influenced a big game? ……

    some will even go as far as saying ozil won the wc for germany singlehanded..scored all goals and top at tackling too…… ignoring the animal and big game player mueller

    schweinstieger missed a penalty at home against chelsea…he came back next year and won the treble…

    larsson 35 years old ..see it as his only ever chance..comes in and kills us…henry hiding….

    mertesaker without koscielny = a wreck.

    Like

  45. Cazorla:

    “I was blown away by how close AW is to his players” or words to that effect.

    Careful santi, before you know it you might sign that contract and then suddenly find yourself as cover for Rambo after several months? It’s a possibility. I wouldn’t put it past the cheeky old git. Though it gets even more confusing if we consider that Ozil Ramsey and Wilshere have all played wide when not fully fit. I have no idea what’s ping on.

    That’s three guesses. Possibly four.

    Like

  46. ok fins …vieira dominated the epl only because he was fit physically ..nothing to do with his mental fortitude and character or background to not be beaten by little engladers racially abusing him in every pitch ….

    got it…!

    Like

  47. Q. What have Jimmy Bullard, Robbie Keane, Lee Cattermole, Mo Sissoko, JJ Shelvey, Joey Barton and Tim Cahill all got in common.

    A. They are all ‘ characters’.

    Like

  48. Indeed they are so full of character there is barely any space to fit in the football talent to the overall package.

    On balance give me less character, more talent.

    Like

  49. lol anicoll..i think i get it now…maybe in english the use of the word character is to describe picturesque figures in the pub …’oh he is quite a character that old mike aint he?’

    i use it very differently and i can see now why we cant communicate properly….

    when i use it i tend to think of the player, the big player, who has the strength of personality/character to enforce his will all over the pitch and win the game whether by scoring, assisting, doing the crucial save, tackle etc . commeth the hour commeth the man sort of thing (??? my english idioms expression not at their best)

    Like

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