301 Comments

The League Table Doesn’t Lie

By: Shotta, @shotta_gooner

 Sports journalism is renowned for clichés that are repeated ad hominem by its practitioners as a substitute for substantive analysis.  It is my observation that that these rhetorical tricks are successfully used because they contain an element of truth which is undeniable. But, more times than not, the assorted hacks and pundits who are supposedly sharing with us these self-evident “truths” are also trying to conceal a lie.

Take Tony Gale, for example, who was doing color commentary on Sunday for my tv feed; just prior to Theo scoring his hat-trick, he was complaining the game showed how much AFC needed to go into the transfer market for world class players, while Walcott and Wilshere, who had just returned from injury, were ripping WBA to shreds in a world-class performance. Yes, every team could do with a world class players but Tony Gale failed to tell the truth, i.e.  Arsenal had very little need to go to the transfer market. On Sunday the lie was immediately exposed, but unfortunately most times it is left unchallenged, leading many to form the wrong conclusions and ultimately to choose a self-defeating course of action

Notwithstanding the instant rebuff of Tony Gale, with the League just ended, I now expect the hacks and their fellow travelers, to use our standing in the league table to form a narrative that Arsenal needs three or four world class transfers. This was famously previewed three-weeks ago by our own Titi Henry from his well remunerated perch on Sky Sports, conveniently reversing his prognostication two weeks earlier. But Henry is not alone in phalanx of famous ex-gunners with the same mantra. In the run-up to Sunday’s  last game of the season, Ray Parlour said the very same while on Talk Sport alongside Adrian Durham, the latter having made a media career by trolling Arsenal supporters.  By the way, Durham’s current windup is that Arsenal did not improve over the past season.

According to the hacks, Arsenal, by finishing 3rd in the table, made no significant improvement over last year when they finished 4thwith 79 points (troll-time on Talk Sport). Chelsea supposedly made much more progress by adding 8 points to last year’s total to win the league. Ergo, the solution is to follow in Chelsea’s footsteps by signing a “world class” forward, midfielder and goal-keeper.

Pos

Team

Pld

W

D

L

GF

GA

GD

Pts

1

Chelsea

38

26

9

3

73

32

41

87

2

Man City

38

24

7

7

83

38

45

79

3

Arsenal

38

22

9

7

71

36

35

75

4

Man Utd

38

20

10

8

62

37

25

70

5

Spurs

38

19

7

12

58

53

5

64

6

Liverpool

38

18

8

12

52

48

4

62

In my day, one of the earliest lessons in high school mathematics was “how to lie with statistics”. Actually it is how to lie with data. By conducting the most elementary analysis, i.e. by comparing the changes in league position of the top 6 of 2014 with that of 2015, unearthed some very revealing information.  Take a gander below.

Manchester City

Yr

W

D

L

GF

GA

GD

Pts

Pos*

2014

27

5

6

102

37

65

86

1

2015

24

7

7

83

38

45

79

2

Difference

-3

2

1

-19

1

-20

-7

-1

% Change

-11%

40%

17%

-19%

3%

-31%

-8%

-5%

Liverpool

2014

26

6

6

101

50

51

84

2

2015

18

8

12

52

48

4

62

6

Difference

-8

2

6

-49

-2

-47

-22

-4

% Change

-30%

40%

100%

-48%

-5%

-72%

-26%

-20%

Chelsea

2014

24

7

7

68

41

27

79

3

2015

26

9

3

73

32

41

87

1

Difference

2

2

-4

5

-9

14

8

2

% Change

8%

33%

-67%

5%

-18%

27%

10%

10%

Arsenal

2014

24

7

7

68

41

27

79

4

2015

22

9

7

71

36

35

75

3

Difference

-2

2

0

3

-5

8

-4

1

% Change

-8%

29%

0%

4%

-12%

30%

-5%

5%

Everton

2014

21

9

8

61

39

22

72

5

2015

12

11

15

48

50

-2

47

11

Difference

-9

2

7

-13

11

-24

-25

-6

% Change

-38%

29%

100%

-19%

27%

-89%

-32%

-30%

Tottenham

2014

21

6

11

55

51

4

69

6

2015

19

7

12

58

53

5

64

5

Difference

-2

1

1

3

2

1

-5

1

% Change

-10%

11%

13%

5%

5%

5%

-7%

5%

Manchester United

2014

19

7

12

64

43

21

64

7

2015

20

10

8

62

37

25

70

4

Difference

1

3

-4

-2

-6

4

6

3

% Change

5%

50%

-36%

-4%

-12%

100%

9%

15%

 Chelsea achieved a 10% improvement in points by realizing 2 more wins (8% gain). A 67% reduction in losses was split between 2 draws and 2 wins. Yet according to the pundits they smashed the League.

Arsenal in contrast had a similar reduction in wins vs Chelsea’s gain but the reduction in losses only showed up in the draw column. We all know the points-allocation in football prioritizes wins. As for the suggestion that the defense is horrible and the goalkeeping porous, there were 9 or 18% less goals conceded over the prior year. The goal difference improved 30% second only, percentage-wise, to United.

City ‘s demise from 1st to 2nd was due to 11% less wins.  The raw numbers would suggest a marginal change of two losses and one draw but the numbers identify the key deficit was in goal-scoring which declined by 19% and their goal difference down by 31%.

The most alarming change in fortunes was on Merseyside. Liverpool is the headliner. To the acclaim of a raft of pundits, many with connection to the club, they splashed the Suarez cash on an array of transfer targets hyped by the media, most notably Mario Balotelli whom they are now quick to disown. A 30% reduction in wins, 100% increase in losses, 48% reduction in goals scored led to a 26% reduction in points, second-only to Everton.  The latter club’s demise was just as catastrophic with 38% less wins and 100% more losses, leaking more and scoring less goals. Yet Roberto Martinez was tagged by the end-of-an-eraists as a Wenger successor.

Finally Manchester United, who won the 2014 transfer sweepstakes, spending £170million on the likes of Falcao, DiMaria (remember him?), Blind, Rojo and Herrera, but only improved by a single more win over the Moyes era. At least they had 36% less losses but turned 3 out of 4 into draws. The end result was a gain of 3 positions in the table. Maybe another £170 million will get them to 1st, failing which they might do a Liverpool.

There is a lot more one could do with this data but I leave that to the readers of PA. Already there is a barrage of mischief and misinformation at large by those trying to discredit the current squad (Giroud, and Ospina seem the favorite targets) and the progress being made by them and Wenger to become truly able to challenge for the title. With rare exceptions the pundits fail to acknowledge that we were handicapped by injuries at the start of the 14-15 season and not by a lack of talent.

But as one other cliché put it: figures never lie, liars figure.

301 comments on “The League Table Doesn’t Lie

  1. and besides anicoll..you find me the post where i say lets go spend 175 million for any mediocre player and you win…

    im just saying that ‘heyyy look petr cech can be ours for a mere10-12 million…he wants to stay in london…not wnated by chelseas and a keeper wenger had his eyes on only for fuckturd ranieri to highjack the bid with roman’s money …petr cech …not schwarzer nor shay given…but petr cech…

    the replies i get are ‘ oh so you dont believe in chesney? fuck off you customer’ …mayeb not those exact words but……

    Like

  2. or even more arrogant

    ‘ he is pastit’ …’ not good enough’ …

    lol..get serious..he is a world class keeper and only 32-33 …

    Like

  3. Mangala had won the same number of medals/trophies as Aguero had before being signed by Citeh H

    Wasn’t Aguero the one you started on about concerning big cash purchases influencing referees/the system at 2.33 today and compared his purchase to Sanogo ? ( banned winkey thing)

    Like

  4. If on the other hand it is not about price but about previous medals/trophies won then the sort of player you are on about would be one with, say, five PL winners medals, and a CL winners medal thrown in for good measure ??

    Am I getting warm ?

    A “proven” winner ready to slot in and do the business ??

    Like

  5. As indeed we all thought was the case when Mikael Silvestre arrived

    Well perhaps not everyone

    Like

  6. It seems everyone has taken Hunter the wrong way, again,
    Looks like its the rest of us who are marching out of step.

    Like

  7. Who knows George – maybe a new keeper will turn up, even Cech if Jose drops dead tomorrow, and that so far unnamed/unidentified “world class striker” people tripe on about ?

    As I said Arsene will be plotting and scheming, as he does every close season to bring in what he regards as improvements to the squad, if they are available. He will however be dealing in the real world, not fantasy.

    Liked by 2 people

  8. aguero is world class wonderkid ..known to everyone since 17-18 with exceptional seasons at atletico madrid ..not a small club …a club that has scouting, has organisation ..has always been around etc etc

    so again who the fuck is mangala? what are we comparing again?

    sylvestre came crooked….and he was never intended to be first choice ..he was for BACK UP ….

    Like

  9. 2. Passenal ‏@Passenal1 22 Nov 2012
    @PoznanInMyPants now I understand why my tweet is being retweeted by Rugby players/coaches. Seems well respected in the sport

    I must say, that I did not know that Declan Lynch existed!

    Someone must support Hunter, the victim?

    Like

  10. again…you are looking at the specifics of the cech wenger mourinho arsenal /chelsea relationship ….im just saying that if there is a possibility to sign a world class name who can still offer and who also wants to come …why not?

    answers like :
    a) we have scenzney, dont you believe in him? youre a cunt then…
    b) we need noone we will defeat all before us…all we need is luck
    c) those who think we need player (s) X or Y are morons

    are not serious answers first of all and secondly indicate an absolutism and arrogance i did not expect.

    thirdly, i also laugh at some opinions made in here or comments but ive never turned and said ‘ those who think X are so and so’ nor have i ever questioned anyone’s knowledge or support. if i did same we would run out of insults,.,,heh…

    Like

  11. Andrew, Its not that I have ant qualms about anyone coming in, its that Hunter winds people up with his tone and then plays the bullied victim.

    Liked by 1 person

  12. And there we have it. Its us ,again.

    Like

  13. thank you vm notoverthehill but i dont need support …heh….im confident..i know what im talking about. im certainly no victim…all im saying is that housewives and twitter copycats can not turn to guys like me and say if we think X we are idiots and that we are customers and dont understand how ‘sports’ work…LOL….

    Like

  14. “aguero is world class wonderkid ..known to everyone since 17-18 with exceptional seasons at atletico madrid ..not a small club …a club that has scouting, has organisation ..has always been around etc etc”

    This is getting a bit dull H – you telling me about how much Ageuro cost, and how brilliant he is/was, and “who” is Mangala.

    Before Citeh saved him from poverty Aguero had won a Uefa/Europa Cup winners medal at Athletico and an ‘Intertoto’ winners medal and that, mon ami, is all – they finished 7th in the season he left and qualified for the final Spanish Uefa Cup place.

    Mangala won two Portugese league titles with Porto and one Belgian league title with Standard Liege and the Belgian Cup.

    And they both play at Citeh, both purchased at considerable expense. And neither as far as I can see influence referees/the system as you first suggested at 2.33.

    And neither won any medals this season.

    Like

  15. what do you mean i wind people up ?

    surely the wind up is saying no to a goalkeeper like cech and casillas because ‘ we have chesney’

    now thats the wind up

    and to then turn and say that we dont understand/know football …now thats insulting.

    Like

  16. no anicoll im telling you that whoever spent money on aguero it was a safe bet as he was well known and world class,..whoever paid 30 or 40 for mangala is a gambler….

    Like

  17. the money spending/favours ratio was a comment for chelsea …….

    and if the arabs hadnt lubricated the system they wouldnt be beating united inside o.t with 3-0s…….

    Like

  18. and kun has given two league titles to city …..

    Like

  19. “no anicoll im telling you that whoever spent money on aguero it was a safe bet as he was well known and world class,..whoever paid 30 or 40 for mangala is a gambler….”

    How about the ‘ whoever’ who paid £60 million for Di Maria ?

    That seemed a sure fire winner at the time, imo, well known, won a lot more than Aguero in Spain and Europe, not playing for a second tier Spanish side that finished 7th, or was it a gamble?

    Liked by 1 person

  20. “and kun has given two league titles to city …..”

    The first one fair enough but 23 PL games in total in 13/14 is pushing that notion a bit, and Yaya Toure would disagree.

    Liked by 1 person

  21. but di maria was part of a transfer operation involving 7 new players, plus new managers……what did you expect lol? that he would come and win the treble for united? a slim argentinian? in the league of the neanderthals? plus they have van gaal who will rip united to shreds and built again , something which might take years and after many efforts to fight the rigth players for the right roles.

    different parameters for di maria …and different parameters for say costa and cesc? no?

    Like

  22. The first one fair enough but 23 PL games in total in 13/14 is pushing that notion a bit, and Yaya Toure would disagree.

    well if someone said lets get a yaya toure the reply would be

    ‘what?!! you dont believe in coqelin? and arteta? you are an an evil son of a bitch and you dont know football or how sports work’

    bingo…..

    Like

  23. do you now perhaps see the insanity of it ?

    im not talking about the players per se or their names …only the comments i see from fellow posters and how they react to the potential of improving the squad with world class names/figures who still have something to offer.

    Like

  24. it can not be made any clearer. the end.

    Like

  25. so if you or alkabama or edy or passenal love chesney that much..good for you guys!!! im happy for you…i might think youre a bit wrong in elevating him to yashin and dasaev levels but no sweat.

    please grant me same courtesy when i ask for a suarez or cech

    dont turn and talk crap that ‘ we dont know football’ cause that makes me angry….. andif i talk like that you certainly wont like it

    Like

  26. Hunter certainly did not like peple asking him why he was ignoring Alexis, Walcott and welbeck from the squad when bleating on last week.
    And then he chose to end the last thread asking why people here were dismisive of Walcott when praising Giroud.

    That’s up there with praising Luiz and slagging off Ozil on the eve of the Germany-Brazil SF. A right old Carry On.

    I hope he’s just chasing his own tail for ‘fun’.

    Like

  27. “i just sensed you more eager to describe me/ show me up as something than actually reading what i was writing ill leave you all to switch/sell a player whose been with us for ten years and someone who looked up to henry. a player who before his injuries would provide us with 15-20 goals a season and 10-15 assists for two season running”

    He writes towards some of the biggest online supporters of Thep Walcott over the years. The evidence is easily available. I’m just gutted Mean Lean didn’t ask me to help produce his famous song last time out (I have a sneaky suspicion it’s all good and the song won’t be needed again).

    Shotta?

    Like

  28. I am currently chasing four exquisite little lamb chops, tiny they are, and about to arrive on my plate.

    I must therefore withdraw from the conversation – however we shall renew in due course – on the question of whether Di Maria can do it on a cold wet night in Stoke (?)

    Like

  29. That’s up there with praising Luiz and slagging off Ozil on the eve of the Germany-Brazil SF. A right old Carry On

    lol you are certainly crazy then cause that night we were comparing luiz and hummels with djourou …just for the history…

    i have never slagged off ozil for his football qualities and iq you liar…only his character and how it was shameful to watch rosicky 33 chasing for the ball and ozil chewing gum…. learn the difference.

    Like

  30. The whole world saw Özil’s character as he slugged it out through the WC as one of the key players for the winning team.

    They also saw Luiz’s character, his poor temperament, exposed. Which is something you objected to when others mentioned it.

    So, you imply that you are happy to slag off the character of the arsenal man, but not the Mendes Mule. That is, a Carry On.

    Carry on.

    Liked by 2 people

  31. I don’t really have time to get involved in this today, as I have a job that needs my attention this afternoon. So I’d like to say two quick things:

    1. I stand by my assertion that Hunter holds some (many) of our players in contempt. The proof is all over his comments today.

    2. “Housewife”?! Fuck you, Hunter, you sexist bastard. You’ve shown me your true colors right there.

    Liked by 1 person

  32. Hunter, the fact van der sar did it for man u does not mean that is the sure fire way to go for getting keepers.

    Other younger keepers are showing they can also cut it. Man U was in need of a keeper that time if am not mistaken… Ours are settling in with the squad… getting cech in, as good as he is does not seem a priority at all. not necessary in our current state of development and yes at this stage, given our current stock of attacking midfielders, we can safely say we do not need yaya toure…It is not heresy and does not diminish his worth as a world class player just that unlike city, we do not need to have all in our squad to be able to function! We can only play 11 players at a time with half that no on the bench

    Like

  33. what? slugging it out means character? are you serious? character is having to score a penalty to put your team ahead after a great start and not pissing your pants on the penalty spot…..

    character is having your manager’s 1,000 game and not hiding ( this is not for ozil, more for arteta and per)

    you view it as slagging someone off …i dont …..

    Like

  34. This is a forum to support Arsenal and our players. Not to discuss how great a fan Hunter thinks he is.
    I’ve just about had enough.
    To be clear. Hunter, you are sailing close to the wind and trying my patience. Yet again.
    Do you never learn.?

    Like

  35. “character is having to score a penalty to put your team ahead after a great start and not pissing your pants on the penalty spot…..” You could apply that to Dennis. He had such little character he never risked pissing his pants again.
    Henry with one v one to win the CL, No character?
    FFS.

    Like

  36. Hunter, the fact van der sar did it for man u does not mean that is the sure fire way to go for getting keepers.

    TS no it does not nor did i claim it to be law. i only asked others to not tag us with descriptions or be dismissive of what 32-33 year old world class keepers can offer.

    again you focus on the names ( cech , yaya toure) whereas im focusing on experience, roles and heart of champion/character/personality…call it whatever you want.

    Like

  37. oh you sure could George!

    and to Hnery too for that night in Paris

    and the hwoel of our squad for losing from wayne bridge that year…..

    let me guess….im slagging them off?

    Like

  38. I think there is nothing much wrong with many things hunter is saying… just more with his delivery. In the end its his opinions and we can be certain AW is not guided by it so that is a relief?!

    i was a unhappy as the next supporter when ozil chose to take the pen…. thought it was arteta or carzola or giroud in that order… also not happy we lost that 1000th game, for example… just saying

    Like

  39. but TS why be unhappy that a 42.5 million player….the world best as many say in his position …why woudl we be unhappy that he is taking a penalty?

    matt le tissier : its a free shot from ten yards you should score everytime

    its not like he was in the world cup final with cramps and stitches after carrying 10 others all the way like baggio …the cruelest ever

    Like

  40. the key think is we are developing a squad here and while one or two players that can add exceptional value can be brought in, it is not a priority cos many of our youngish players have loads of experience… this arsenal team is not even that young cos it is a fine balance across age brackets.

    Yes we all know name is an example… for cech fit in castillas and its essential the point being made that is still being made.. in fact Cech over Iker for depth of PL experience….Maybe a Reus to give us more options on the right; maybe Vidal if available…but i really do not think we need many new players

    Like

  41. There is a reason why a team has designated pen takers.. they are in the team, follow it except when they are not there… I just did nnot know him as one of the pen takers,

    Like

  42. My apologies to Shotta, by the way. I totally failed to thank him for the amount of effort it must have taken to put together today’s blog. Thanks, Shotta. It was excellent stuff.

    Liked by 1 person

  43. the key think is we are developing a squad here and while one or two players that can add exceptional value can be brought in, it is not a priority cos many of our youngish players have loads of experience

    OK ……. a world class goalkeeper , a specialist’s position…. falls into that category of exceptional value that can be brought in

    you also say yourself a reus maybe or a vidal….how would you feel if i turned and called you a customer who dont understand how the sports work ?

    because in all accounts..thats exactly what ive been saying…if you can identify the 2-3 players who can improve your team, then get them…just dont say things like ‘we have chesney we are fine’ cause we are not. chesney cost us this year and will continue to cost us till he matures which could take ages unless he gets a bitchslap from someone like casillas or better cech who is taller and more intimidating..

    Like

  44. pedantic george
    May 26, 2015 at 8:59 pm

    a bit late to say that when you have devoted a whole blog entry and 5-6 references to my name and then we have some people spending two days questioning my suppport/knowledge etc ….. ie. things that cant be questioned……

    Like

  45. Haha , Ffs, you think the blog was about you? Perhaps it was, perhaps the whole world revolves around you.

    Liked by 2 people

  46. ozil is a genius..no question about it…people with that kind of vision and touch come but once in a while..its not unfair to expect them to do well beyond the average good player ..one could argue the plaudits they get are also so ridiculously exaggerated..

    i have doubts about the fight in him too..i used to watch a lot of real madrid games when he was playing for them and even then he used to wind me up..the way i see football, just because he is a genius doesn’t give him a right to go into hiding when his team needs him [if you believe he never has a bad game, we can talk about that]..

    to be honest i was never really comfortable when someone like ancelloti spoke badly about him..but then dismissed them as media contrivances..

    any smoker (and a football player) will tell you there is a very high percentage that ozil smokes more than he should..you can go ahead and dismiss that as non-sense..

    i have been following football keenly only since 2001-2002 which makes me a newbie among most people here..however i never felt frustrated that a Henry or a Bergkamp were not trying..most of the time it came all too easy for them..please dont absolve ozil’s weaknesses by pointing singular events from their careers to win an argument.

    Like

  47. these are the points where we differ. Does cech or Castillas significantly improve us such that we can risk squad disruption to bring them in. You insist that cech, being world class is automatically superior to what we have. i don’t agree. he is not looking to leave Chelsea, where he has been displaced by talented youth to sit on our bench so we can safely assume it is to be number one. we have talented youths of our own coming up, why should we displace them for him?

    My first standin terms of buying this summer is that over a period players have been brought in and now we have a squad in place and the nature of our game have always thrived on consistency in team selection and they get better as they play together… the whole being more than its individual parts and all that.

    Reus for example will add value to us and more significantly may be more willing to fight for his place than cech wanting as guarantee as number one. Vidal may also may be more willing to compete for a place… great players that they are they are not messi!

    Like

  48. Failing to score a penalty may be a sign of a weak character. Choosing to use gay boy or housewife as a metaphor for uselessness means you have lost the argument.

    Liked by 3 people

  49. i am so sorry i did not read all the comments..

    however i still think ozil can be a more complete player who could manage his body a little better..he is not even close to fulfilling his potential..

    its not about the trophies for me..but i dont see anything but his own nonchalance stopping him from becoming a zidane or a laudrup..i am sure he couldnt care less..but we live in our heads so please dont bother telling me that i cannot set expectations for him..that is weak logic..

    Like

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