By: Shotta, @shotta_gooner
Sports journalism is renowned for clichés that are repeated ad hominem by its practitioners as a substitute for substantive analysis. It is my observation that that these rhetorical tricks are successfully used because they contain an element of truth which is undeniable. But, more times than not, the assorted hacks and pundits who are supposedly sharing with us these self-evident “truths” are also trying to conceal a lie.
Take Tony Gale, for example, who was doing color commentary on Sunday for my tv feed; just prior to Theo scoring his hat-trick, he was complaining the game showed how much AFC needed to go into the transfer market for world class players, while Walcott and Wilshere, who had just returned from injury, were ripping WBA to shreds in a world-class performance. Yes, every team could do with a world class players but Tony Gale failed to tell the truth, i.e. Arsenal had very little need to go to the transfer market. On Sunday the lie was immediately exposed, but unfortunately most times it is left unchallenged, leading many to form the wrong conclusions and ultimately to choose a self-defeating course of action
Notwithstanding the instant rebuff of Tony Gale, with the League just ended, I now expect the hacks and their fellow travelers, to use our standing in the league table to form a narrative that Arsenal needs three or four world class transfers. This was famously previewed three-weeks ago by our own Titi Henry from his well remunerated perch on Sky Sports, conveniently reversing his prognostication two weeks earlier. But Henry is not alone in phalanx of famous ex-gunners with the same mantra. In the run-up to Sunday’s last game of the season, Ray Parlour said the very same while on Talk Sport alongside Adrian Durham, the latter having made a media career by trolling Arsenal supporters. By the way, Durham’s current windup is that Arsenal did not improve over the past season.
According to the hacks, Arsenal, by finishing 3rd in the table, made no significant improvement over last year when they finished 4thwith 79 points (troll-time on Talk Sport). Chelsea supposedly made much more progress by adding 8 points to last year’s total to win the league. Ergo, the solution is to follow in Chelsea’s footsteps by signing a “world class” forward, midfielder and goal-keeper.
|
Pos |
Team |
Pld |
W |
D |
L |
GF |
GA |
GD |
Pts |
|
1 |
Chelsea |
38 |
26 |
9 |
3 |
73 |
32 |
41 |
87 |
|
2 |
Man City |
38 |
24 |
7 |
7 |
83 |
38 |
45 |
79 |
|
3 |
Arsenal |
38 |
22 |
9 |
7 |
71 |
36 |
35 |
75 |
|
4 |
Man Utd |
38 |
20 |
10 |
8 |
62 |
37 |
25 |
70 |
|
5 |
Spurs |
38 |
19 |
7 |
12 |
58 |
53 |
5 |
64 |
|
6 |
Liverpool |
38 |
18 |
8 |
12 |
52 |
48 |
4 |
62 |
In my day, one of the earliest lessons in high school mathematics was “how to lie with statistics”. Actually it is how to lie with data. By conducting the most elementary analysis, i.e. by comparing the changes in league position of the top 6 of 2014 with that of 2015, unearthed some very revealing information. Take a gander below.
|
Manchester City |
||||||||
|
Yr |
W |
D |
L |
GF |
GA |
GD |
Pts |
Pos* |
|
2014 |
27 |
5 |
6 |
102 |
37 |
65 |
86 |
1 |
|
2015 |
24 |
7 |
7 |
83 |
38 |
45 |
79 |
2 |
|
Difference |
-3 |
2 |
1 |
-19 |
1 |
-20 |
-7 |
-1 |
|
% Change |
-11% |
40% |
17% |
-19% |
3% |
-31% |
-8% |
-5% |
|
Liverpool |
||||||||
|
2014 |
26 |
6 |
6 |
101 |
50 |
51 |
84 |
2 |
|
2015 |
18 |
8 |
12 |
52 |
48 |
4 |
62 |
6 |
|
Difference |
-8 |
2 |
6 |
-49 |
-2 |
-47 |
-22 |
-4 |
|
% Change |
-30% |
40% |
100% |
-48% |
-5% |
-72% |
-26% |
-20% |
|
Chelsea |
||||||||
|
2014 |
24 |
7 |
7 |
68 |
41 |
27 |
79 |
3 |
|
2015 |
26 |
9 |
3 |
73 |
32 |
41 |
87 |
1 |
|
Difference |
2 |
2 |
-4 |
5 |
-9 |
14 |
8 |
2 |
|
% Change |
8% |
33% |
-67% |
5% |
-18% |
27% |
10% |
10% |
|
Arsenal |
||||||||
|
2014 |
24 |
7 |
7 |
68 |
41 |
27 |
79 |
4 |
|
2015 |
22 |
9 |
7 |
71 |
36 |
35 |
75 |
3 |
|
Difference |
-2 |
2 |
0 |
3 |
-5 |
8 |
-4 |
1 |
|
% Change |
-8% |
29% |
0% |
4% |
-12% |
30% |
-5% |
5% |
|
Everton |
||||||||
|
2014 |
21 |
9 |
8 |
61 |
39 |
22 |
72 |
5 |
|
2015 |
12 |
11 |
15 |
48 |
50 |
-2 |
47 |
11 |
|
Difference |
-9 |
2 |
7 |
-13 |
11 |
-24 |
-25 |
-6 |
|
% Change |
-38% |
29% |
100% |
-19% |
27% |
-89% |
-32% |
-30% |
|
Tottenham |
||||||||
|
2014 |
21 |
6 |
11 |
55 |
51 |
4 |
69 |
6 |
|
2015 |
19 |
7 |
12 |
58 |
53 |
5 |
64 |
5 |
|
Difference |
-2 |
1 |
1 |
3 |
2 |
1 |
-5 |
1 |
|
% Change |
-10% |
11% |
13% |
5% |
5% |
5% |
-7% |
5% |
|
Manchester United |
||||||||
|
2014 |
19 |
7 |
12 |
64 |
43 |
21 |
64 |
7 |
|
2015 |
20 |
10 |
8 |
62 |
37 |
25 |
70 |
4 |
|
Difference |
1 |
3 |
-4 |
-2 |
-6 |
4 |
6 |
3 |
|
% Change |
5% |
50% |
-36% |
-4% |
-12% |
100% |
9% |
15% |
Chelsea achieved a 10% improvement in points by realizing 2 more wins (8% gain). A 67% reduction in losses was split between 2 draws and 2 wins. Yet according to the pundits they smashed the League.
Arsenal in contrast had a similar reduction in wins vs Chelsea’s gain but the reduction in losses only showed up in the draw column. We all know the points-allocation in football prioritizes wins. As for the suggestion that the defense is horrible and the goalkeeping porous, there were 9 or 18% less goals conceded over the prior year. The goal difference improved 30% second only, percentage-wise, to United.
City ‘s demise from 1st to 2nd was due to 11% less wins. The raw numbers would suggest a marginal change of two losses and one draw but the numbers identify the key deficit was in goal-scoring which declined by 19% and their goal difference down by 31%.
The most alarming change in fortunes was on Merseyside. Liverpool is the headliner. To the acclaim of a raft of pundits, many with connection to the club, they splashed the Suarez cash on an array of transfer targets hyped by the media, most notably Mario Balotelli whom they are now quick to disown. A 30% reduction in wins, 100% increase in losses, 48% reduction in goals scored led to a 26% reduction in points, second-only to Everton. The latter club’s demise was just as catastrophic with 38% less wins and 100% more losses, leaking more and scoring less goals. Yet Roberto Martinez was tagged by the end-of-an-eraists as a Wenger successor.
Finally Manchester United, who won the 2014 transfer sweepstakes, spending £170million on the likes of Falcao, DiMaria (remember him?), Blind, Rojo and Herrera, but only improved by a single more win over the Moyes era. At least they had 36% less losses but turned 3 out of 4 into draws. The end result was a gain of 3 positions in the table. Maybe another £170 million will get them to 1st, failing which they might do a Liverpool.
There is a lot more one could do with this data but I leave that to the readers of PA. Already there is a barrage of mischief and misinformation at large by those trying to discredit the current squad (Giroud, and Ospina seem the favorite targets) and the progress being made by them and Wenger to become truly able to challenge for the title. With rare exceptions the pundits fail to acknowledge that we were handicapped by injuries at the start of the 14-15 season and not by a lack of talent.
But as one other cliché put it: figures never lie, liars figure.
Positively Arsenal 
So to paraphrase ,we can bridge the gap with a little good fortune and a following wind?
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Good grief Shotts – I was about to chomp on a biscuit and sip my coffee while reading this morning’s blog, relaxing if you know what I mean – and then I saw the charts !!!!
I shall give it the attention it deserves in due course
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I also heard Tony Gale’s commentary. Laughable stuff.
What the squad will look like next season I cannot hazard a guess. I have a feeling that a transfer or two will take place and will be ‘top top quality’. Who? Who knows.
But what I would really like is to see the current players improve or continue to improve.
This squad is objectively already better than Man City or Chelsea. But perhaps its the additions to the 1st team that are where things may happen.
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Shotta
I’m somewhat overwhelmed by the brilliance of this article.
I command you to write, here, much, much more (about anything).
Thank you.
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Top work Shotta. The comment that always irritates me most about transfers is how clever City and Chelsea are to get their business done early as if this is a sign of moral strength rather than being bankrolled by owners with seemingly limitless funds.
By some fluke however we are about to defend our status as FA cup winners having just advanced our final league position.
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anicoll5 at 11:04 am
Your comment about the charts needing attention is a very terlling one. You, of course, will delve into it as you promised but how many of our average fan has the time, the willingness or the tools to look behind the data and conclude that Henry, Parlour, Durham, Tony Gale et al or chatting rubbish when they say we need 3 or 4 world class players to compete for the title. Yet this is what passes for informed punditry in the media, blogs and podcasts.
As I said yesterday in another post, a dispassionate analysis of the year on year changes in the league table, reveals that contrary to the propaganda by the mainstream media and echoed by our weak-willed fans, Chelsea did not sweep all before them on their way to the title, they merely improved by 8 points (turning 4 losses into 2 wins, 2 draws) to overhaul City. In my opinion, our current squad should be able to make a 12 -point improvement next season, another 3 wins and 3 draws, from 9 losses and 7 draws last season. By so doing we can match Chelsea’s title-winning league total.
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Our options for strengthening the team this summer are limited by the difficulty in finding players as good as those in the outstanding squad we already have.
The pundits’ solution seems to be to spend silly money. Either on transfer fees – buying more or less any “names” who are touting themselves around the circuit – or on wages – paying incomers to sit on the bench while our present squad continues to play outstanding football.
Arsène’s solutions are rather different. Continue to develop our young heroes, some of whom are already verging on “world class”, buy relative unknowns who are ready for the Premiership and have the potential to be “world class”, or, more recently with greater funding available, buy players who are already “world class” but whose existing clubs are unable to perceive their potential.
Of course, to do that you have to have Arsène’s gift for spotting and cultivating potential. Which is why neither the pundits nor any of us has the faintest idea who might be “targets” for the coming summer.
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‘In my day, one of the earliest lessons in high school mathematics was “how to lie with statistics”. Actually it is how to lie with data.’
only because i respect your effort and im not classless yet to call you weak or someone who doesnt know football or arsenal and because youre honest enough to admit the above sentence :
why not do something more simple which will give a better indication ?
excluding europe where all top3 fucked up …. in which games that chelsea had to win/get result did they fail to do so and in which arsenal?
how many games did chelsea lose or draw from a wining position vs arsenal. ?
in the games chelsea needed their big players? did they respond? what is the same ratio for arsenal?
+++++++
merlot’s 3rd paragraph carries all the substance……we have some young ones who are on the verge of being world class and some foreign pros who have the potential to be world class and wenger to spot the ones under the radar from other clubs.
all 3 categories though fall under ‘waiting to see’ , rather than ‘been there got the t-shirt’
so getting players who have got the t-shirt and can show you how to do it, where to go, how to ask, what to ask for….. can HELP/GUIDE those who are on the verge or have the potential but are nervous or get stage stress/fear……
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“in which games that chelsea had to win/get result did they fail to do so”
I don’t think Chelsea’s performance against Bradford was very good, and nor did Jose H.
To quote the Chelsea manager before kick off on that tragic day; ‘The other day, a coach of a big team was knocked out of the Cup and he was saying, “Very good, now we can focus on other competitions”. If I lose against Bradford I won’t say that. I say, “It’s a disgrace”.’
Weren’t they 2-0 at one stage ? Shocking result.
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@Hunter
How much help do Chelsea get from the referees? Can we ignore the fact that Chelsea won the league this season due to referee assistance throughout or that Mourinho’s dirty tactics/style precludes the need for referee assistance. Some Arsenal players would look like big men if they were given the favours of Chelsea now and Man Utd in prior seasons. Chelsea cannot play the style they do without the allowance for a variety of underhanded tactics that go unpunished. So its two separate issues – Chelsea’s experienced pros vs Arsenal’s?
I think a comparison with Man City last season (in terms of big players) is fairer as they do not get the tilting that Man Utd and Chelsea receive – except perhaps against Arsenal.
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How effective are Chelsea’s players without referee tilting? Hazard has finessed his style of falling into opponents and ‘drawing’ fouls – its blatant, it did not work in the world cup last year, but in England the referees are obviously paid to give him a hand. Let alone all their thuggish players. Not just against Arsenal. Against everyone else in the league. We surely cannot compare a footballing team to Chelsea, its apples and oranges?
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On Shotta’s review the killer figure is the number of Chelsea PL defeats this season, just three compared to the seven last year. ( and compared to our seven both seasons) Three defeats is by no means impressive when measured against the best teams to win the league but in the 2014/2015 contest, and across the whole season, it separated them from the rest. Hats off to them on that. And the games they did lose ? At WHL, at SJP (ffs) and the recent thrashing at West Brom they were unexpected.
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While I would not know where to look I would be interested in seeing the comparative “injury” patterns of Chelsea v the rest over the course of the season. Until Costa began to struggle in March their success/luck (?) in keeping players fit was extraordinary and ensured a stable first team and the chance for players to rest and recuperate.
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If the question is: how do Arsenal beat Chelsea + dirty refs whilst Chelsea are playing Mourinho’s usual dirty game, then what is the answer. I don’t know.
If the question is: how do Arsenal maximise points against all teams in the league, then the answer is different from above, surely?
Don’t get me wrong. I want Arsene to crush Mourinho’s teams and let that little shit have a nervous breakdown. But the field is so tilted, I have given up hope.
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Correction: I think they can win, sure. But dominate, no. But not because they are not better. They cannot dominate because of the referees. And unless their owner gets his wealth taken away, that will not change.
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But anicoll, don’t they have less injuries because they are the ones kicking/hacking/etc. ? If I do the kicking, I am less likely to get injured.
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anicoll…perhaps i did not specify but i was talking about the premiership. we are leading 2-1 inside anfiled…we get equialised at the end..these things need to stop happening..just like swanseas and sotons and stokes.
and heh….lets quote the chelsea manager whenever it suits us …he has proven that what he says in media is all theatre-talk….
sav i take your point about refs of course but when i call for ivan to pull his finger out, or how the club owners fail to protect our interests on/off the pitch, or how we need players who also beat the refs because they have the character to get up take the ball and cunt in in the net … …… i still get complaints….
if its two seperate issues then like ive said in the past either we will have to play their game to see rewards (which we have already in some extent and continue to do , especially if its shown that the 5-6 english youngsters in our team will form the national squad)
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also have said it in the past..
when one team pays for an aguero and the other team pays for a sanogo…who are the refs/system going to take seriously you reckon?
you have player A who contributes 1 billion to your league system / football product and player B who not only does not contribute but tries to make money for his own good (club) out of your system.
who do you think will get the favours?
so what are we as a club ( owners) doing about it? writing blogs? waiting it all from manager?
like ive said..if football is sanitised and regulated properly wenger will win it every year. but dont forget there are owners ‘investing’ billions to the carousel….they take priority unfortunately
to break that you either need to
a) spend like them
b) get 2-3 mean bastards and world class winners who also beat the refs
c) ivan or whoever is there at backscene level to make some bloody noise and protect us
d) pray and hope that planets do align and that romance triumphs over nasty evil world we live in.
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Hunter, I take your point about boardroom level assistance. Unfortunately, I do not know what goes on in the circles of the FA and EPL and whoever else to know if Ivan and co. have done all they can, so I reserve judgement. But a level playing field would be great.
As for any big players from within or without looking to step up or step in, you won’t hear me complaining. I do feel/hope that a few of our guys are going to be massive next season if they can just gain a little momentum and avoid being hacked to pieces.
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and my last bit….its nto about being absolute and doing on or the other or only one of a,b,c,d
i for instance think that a combination of all 4 is needed…. yes you spend ..yes you get two three to help the rest and you protect all that and also hope for the best…
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Thats a pretty fair appraisal.
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NO NO we are doomers, cunts and CUSTOMERS who dont know football
fuck petr cech and suarez and martinez and robben and reus and all that filth …… we got djourou shecnhey and arteta ..world beaters.
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Another great post Shotta although im sure I’ve seen part of it somewhere before (before George took it down)
You are right in your analysis that fine lines make big differences and the gap between any of the top four us not massive. Just us beating them twice reduces their tally by four and increases ours by five, a swing of 9 pts leaving us needing to turn one other defeat over the whole season into a win to win the league. I know that’s if and buts however if you manage to win these tight games you walk away with the spoils at the end of the season. One signing, one or two player improvements or simply just an improvement on the injury front might be enough.
Whatever happens getting to at least mid-eighties in the pts table is vital which in why I was hoping to break the 80 barrier this season to prove the gap was miniscule.
At the weekend my mate and I was looking at the team and trying to decide where we could improve the squad and to be honest it was difficult, the only area where a new might save us points was if we brought a world class top top keeper but even here who would make a difference caused argument. The outgoing utd keeper or the chelski or Bayern incumbents won’t be coming to us so is there is anyone else better than the three amigos we have.
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Football is like politics and religion, everyone has their view. There is no use starting a fight over it.
I spoke to an Indian girl in class and she said people back in her country are complaining about the new PM. They say he is never in the country, always flying overseas, especially in China/Japan/Korea. I tried to explain that he was there signing 10s of billions of dollars in trade and infrastructure investments and the effects of this will take several years to manifest. But she had her view and I left it. In a few years all will be self evident. There’s a metaphor here…
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Regarding the comparative injury count among Chelsea v the Rest Sav the worst record in the league for missing players this season is Manyoo who, in Fellaini, have the biggest thug on the park, in all senses. Debuchy’s shoulder and Jack clumoping I cannot think of two direct injuries that have caused us to lose players for any length of time this year. Olivier seemed to break his own leg, ditto Debuchy and his first ankle ligament twist, Aaron’s hamstrings have pinged like piano wire, the Ox has been in and out week to week, Danny has succumbed after a very strong first half of the season. Kosc took a long time to get genuinely fit after the Summer and even now it is a bit game to game. If you look at so many of our injuries they are not the result of some psycho tackle but of strains of groin, calf and hamstrings. Chelsea in contrast seem to have had their first teamers available throughout.
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“when one team pays for an
agueroDi Maria and the other team pays for a sanogo…who are the refs/system going to take seriously you reckon?”Give me a minute, the answer is on the tip of my tongue ………
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Football is like politics and religion, everyone has their view. There is no use starting a fight over it.
heh but my friend …..just last week in these pages i read stuff like
‘if you think X then you are Z’ …. ‘ those who dont see Y are clearly idiots/fools add your epithet’
so….. no room for the opinion of how a petr cech or an iker casillas – multi epl laliga and cl winners – can offer world class goalkeeping …if you want them it categorically means that you dont know football, that youre a shit fan and an impatient customer
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again selective anicoll….but im not surprised.
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just for you anicoll, returning compliments and ricoches and all……. one team paid for cesc and won it…another paid for mr assist mr ten mr playmaker and is still waiting….
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its fine ..we dont need cesc…we got arteta….
forget how cesc scored the penalty to take spain to the final of the euro against buffon
forget cesc scoring penalty for arsenal against barcelona with broken foot
forget cesc getting on the wc final and changing the game and assisting iniesta for the winner
forget cesc helping arsenal to the clubs singular cl final appearance
but dont forget the back heel …and ignore clichy holding his genitals and limping back in line and playing all the barca frontline on.
its cause you know football……
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Make your mind up H – you said at2.33 that because Manchester City pay a large sum of cash for Aguero that they are automatically going to receive better treatment from referees/ the system.
When I give you an example of a club playing an even larger sum of cash for a player, Di Maria, yet not apparently receiving much by way of favourable treatment from referees or the system (including having the payer red carded against us). It does nt seem to me tha the cash amount paid has had much effect on the outcome of referees/the system on ManYoos season.
Next you say I am being “selective” and say look at what Chelsea paid for Cesc. I don’t they paid a lot for Cesc – certainly less than we paid for Sanchez or Ozil ? And are you sayiong the referees and system favour them because of it?
What are you asking me to compare ?
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no mate… i said in the example talking to sav that others ‘invest’ billions in the carousel and are thus taken more seriously/favoured than arsenal who for ten years were aiming to take money OUT OF the system.
i do understand how dirty industries work..
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manchester has had 20 years of owning the system and fergie retiring and gill going has taken its toll….chelsea went for kenyon when they first got here and have roman ‘lubricating’ the system at all levels. …city the same…arsenal was not. arsenal has just started to lubricate the system lately….
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You may be right H – there has to be something criminal in the £27 million that Chelsea paid Fiorentina for Cuadrado – extraordinary amount of cash for what appears to be a shocking player. Still if PSG reckon Luiz is worth c. £40 million ……. !
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choosing di maria was a specific target to have a go at my comment which was a general example to show how dirty industries where interests are involved will usually work.
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and if your secret meaning is that chelsea is corrupt and has bought the league/officials/media everything then lets shut down the club and move to barbados ….why bother..??????
no?
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you can either get up and roll your sleeves and go fuck/bite them them in the next chance (but no heaven forbid , thats what suarez the animal does…punishments, bans, targetted by refs…but he is unphased…he still comes in and scores ..the coward.)
or you can look at the ref and comb your hair with your hands while licking your lips…..
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Chelsea were a goal up against United and City in the final minute. Does that help? Oh, they didn’t win either. 4 points dropped. Still, I’m sure they never do it. I must have imagined those 2 .
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did any of those results put them in danger of losing the title george? did they get what they wanted or the minimum of what they wanted?
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its quite different when youre 6 – 7 points ahead ..youre already winning and can extend to 9-10 but settle for 7-8 with your opponents staying back again.
not the same when youre chasing…your opponent has lost..you need 3 points…you have them …and you lose them in the 91st…..
these are the differences you ignore but im not shocked ….matt le tissier = raul ….just one played for soton and the other for madrid…….
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“choosing di maria was a specific target to have a go at my comment which was a general example to show how dirty industries where interests are involved will usually work.”
Right then, we shall put Di Maria to one side.
How about Mangala then? Another eye-watering transfer fee that did not impress the referees/system.
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Man Utd last season were not favoured last. This season has been a tale of constant assistance. Just because Oliver red cards Di Maria in one FA Cup match does not exclude all the assistance they received. Just because Chelsea were guided and assisted to the titel does not exclude the assistance Man Utd received to get the top 4 trophy. So the huge sum they paid and their ‘brand’ and goodness knows what else is still alive and kicking.
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Hunter, unless you put the goal posts down we will never score.
Those games I mentioned were early doors and they did not have a gap. Time and again you make statements that people rubbish at will.
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mangala? who is he? i had never heard of him… nor asked for him
george i dont understand your cross examination
when chelsea needed point or points to secure their advantage ( whichever that was depending on the stage of the season) they got it.
some will maintain that tehy got the results thanks to their ‘brilliant manager’ and tactics….i disagree.. imo they got the results cause they had serious players who took things seriously. fucking john terry…that useless classless racist bastard son of a cokewhore has made mertesaker look like bambi this season.
but you dont rubbish my statements..you hardly understadn them from the replies you give.
last time we were talking about world legends…barca saying goodbye to xavi and your responce was le tissier. now we talk about big players making sure they get the results they need and you talk about early stages as if it makes a difference
like i said to fins…you seem more interested to ‘rubbish’ me than read what im saying.
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oh and george i can also rubbish statements that see us winning the treble with arteta and giroud, or statements that make schesney better than ospina cech casillas but i chose not to and rather discuss it giving examples to people who would rather rubbish me…………. bastards…. anyway…
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Hunter. Put the goal posts down for a minute.
You said(and I paraphrase) You had to win things to be regarded as a legend/great player. I gave you Matt. Xavi was never mentioned.
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auf widersehen for now…im off to renew my season ticket as a fine customer …the fine customer i am leaving my country freinds and family company to contribute for shopping and selfies at the emirates !!!!
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kounia pou sas kounage …PG can translate that
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“mangala? who is he? i had never heard of him…”
He is the most expensively priced defender in the history of British football, and depending on what you believe PSG paid for Luiz, perhaps world football.
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i dont what they paid i know that luiz has been influential wherever ha has played and has won big trophies and becoming mvp of whole season at times too…who is mangala again? what has he won?
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