VAR at the 2018 World Cup is the 21st century Russian Revolution. It is the football equivalent of “Seven Days That Shook The World” over 100 years ago. As happened in Europe and the world, for decades thereafter, nothing in football refereeing will remain the same after the VAR revolution at the 2018 World Cup.
Despite the bitter, vicious whingeing in the media by the luddite pundits who bang on endlessly that it is the end of football, i.e. the end of those “good times” when referees, wittingly or not, could erroneously award penalties and off-side goals without real-time review, despite the doubters, VAR has burst on the world stage proving that with technology the accuracy of refereeing decisions can decisively increase, especially on those game-changing decisions.
VAR is 99.3% correct
According to FIFA’s referee committee head, Pierluigi Collina, so far at the World Cup, 99.3 percent of “match-changing” decisions were called correctly at — “very, very close to perfection” — based on assessments by him and other senior ex-referees. Who in their right mind, after seeing world cup after world cup (my 12th tournament since 1970) where usually “smaller nations” get screwed over by a decisive penalty or off-side call, could be against VAR? Which England fan, with two working neurons and the ability to think independently, could be opposed to a video ref review after Maradonna’s infamous “hand of god” goal? Which Gooner, having experienced in the PL a 120% plus increase in Penalties-Against the club in the ten years up to 16-17 compared to the previous period, be satisfied with the current state of affairs?
Defining the revolution
So why is this a revolution? There is no bloody uprising, no raging factions of Girondists vs Jacobins, Mensheviks vs Bolsheviks, etc. engaged in terminal struggle. Yet it is my hypothesis that the impact of VAR is potentially as significant as any other revolution in the sport. First, the absolute power of the refereeing authorities to make game changing decisions without recourse has ended. It may take some months to become reality but the success of VAR on the world stage is the beginning of the end of those refereeing organizations who have delayed and procrastinated on the use of technology to ensure football officials get the big decisions absolutely right.
It is remarkable that up to 2018, football will be the last among the major sports to adopt technology. Is there anything more incongruous; in a world of 4k, ultra definition TV, where viewers can literally see every bead of sweat on a player’s brow, much less a blatant foul or hand-ball offense in real time, the Premier League with all its multi-billion tv revenue, will be the last among the major European leagues to adopt VAR. Truth, they say, is stranger than fiction.
How often have we seen referees dismiss with arrogance and impunity appeals made by players-managers-fans to reverse decisions that were blatant errors on their part. A mealy-mouth apology at end of season via a journalist or some other friendly audience regretting the error will not bring back 2 or 3 points dropped because of a bad decision. Multiply such “errors” two or three times over a season and three lost points multiply to as much nine. One doesn’t have to be a statistical genius to appreciate that in a league of fine margins, with a top-4 place more than a trophy (now the equivalent a gold or platinum plated Preferred Card to the riches of the champions league) that refereeing errors are simply unacceptable in deciding the results of games.
Even more revolutionary, to my mind, is how VAR will restrict the ability of the honchos who are the real power in the various leagues (Premier, UEFA, FIFA, etc.) from being able to appoint their favorite referee to manipulate a game to achieve a desired result. The biggest and most recent scandal, Calciopoli in Italy, centered on the fixers being able to have their favored corrupted referee appointed to do certain games. Fortunately for the Italian investigators, who busted the perpetrators, they had recorded telephone conversations between the plotters. No hard evidence has emerged of English referees being corrupted despite the increased legitimization of gaming companies being involved with English football, the massive rise in sports-related gambling rings in Asia and elsewhere and the reports of certain referees receiving favors from bookmakers. But some of us refuse to be intimidated by accusations of being conspiracy theorists, refuse to abandon commonsense, and refuse to ignore the laws of human nature. Throughout history wherever there is massive amounts of money to be had, without transparency and aggressive policing of the players, corrupting forces will flourish with gay abandon.
Disarray in the English media
The striking thing to date is how the VAR revolution has the English media in general disarray. Until recently, anything about the World Cup, particularly Russia, was negative. Football lovers were urged to avoid land of Putin as it was a cesspool of racist, violent football hooligans. Apparently the legions of fans who traveled from Latin America, Africa, the Middle East and many European countries to support their teams simply ignored the advice of certain media and were/are only too happy to enjoy the hospitality of the Russians and to party from city-to-city, unmolested.
Pre-world cup the English football media was generally united that they, with a few well chosen propaganda points, could deceive the public that VAR doesn’t or couldn’t work. One prominent example is Barney Ronay of The Guardian, in my opinion their best exponent of Orwellian double-speak, who as recent as last January after only the 3rd trial of VAR by the Football League concluded:
“The fact is, for all the expertise, the manpower, the money spent, VAR just doesn’t work in football. It diminishes the experience of watching in the stadium. It skews the game decisively one way. It is one of those ideas, like bendy buses, or communism, that would simply be better off abandoned.”
Notice by the way the allusion to communism. Apparently you have to be a communist to want fair-play in football. Is there anything more Orwellian?
Eight months later the Guardian is a little more “guarded” (pardon the pun), one may say even ebullient in their assessment of VAR. In a column headlined The video ref is the rising star of this World Cup, penned by a Jack Bernhardt and published on June 19th, long before the conclusion of the group stages of the World Cup, he wrote:
“Sure, there have been a few high-profile mistakes. VAR should have spotted Harry Kane being wrestled to the ground by Tunisia’s defenders last night, and if England hadn’t won the Sun would have run the headline “What a bunch of VARseholes”. But to me, VAR is much more than a silly extra gimmick, or something new and shiny that exists just to irritate Mark Lawrenson – it’s actually changing the dynamic of the sport.
“But if a referee knows they can review a decision, it becomes inherently less arbitrary. As such, everyone has more faith in the system, so there are fewer frustrated outbursts, and less of a need for a referee to stamp their authority on the game. That’s borne out by the stats: with no red cards in the first 14 matches, this is officially the cleanest start to a World Cup in 32 years.”
Beware the counter revolution
The success of VAR is not guaranteed. Like any revolution, there will be a counter revolution. Europe is replete with examples. The French are now into their 5th Republic. The Soviet Union has ceased to exist.
The Powers That Be (PTOB) may be off-balance by the current success of VAR but it won’t be for long. Without a vigilant footballing public I am absolutely sure it will be corrupted to the detriment of fair play. The referees are not perfect and they are swayed by their inherent, historical bias towards the traditionally big footballing nations (easily change that to big-spending football clubs). Carlos Quieroz is absolutely correct that Ronaldo should have been sent off for that deliberate foul vs Iran, not a yellow card after the VAR review. The Moroccans have filed a complaint to FIFA showing 10 instances where they were shafted during their game vs Spain. Similarly the Serbians are still incensed by decisions against them in the game vs Switzerland particularly that incident when Lichsteiner and cohort wrested Mitroivic to the ground with absolutely no call. Already The Telegraph via Keith Hackett are arguing that “VAR officials are hunting for decisions to make and interfering when not needed.” But, as the smaller footballing nations at the World Cup have experienced, there is need for more VAR when the referees have made errors, not less.
As for those of us who support Arsenal and follow the Premier League, it will be interesting to see how our lords and masters react to the success of VAR in Russia. As ArsenalAndrew, who is a long-time advocate of VAR tweeted:
All I shall add, there is a crying need to “ReformThePGMO.”
Positively Arsenal 
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Leno was in Leverkusen today to say goodbye to his former teammates. He begins pre-season training with Arsenal on Monday.
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WWB
“EnuguStatePolice
@PoliceNG_Enugu
Our men have rescued Pa Michael Obi, the father of the Super Eagles captain Mikel Obi.
He was kidnapped along Markurdi – Enugu expressway but we rescued him today 2nd July, 2018 around 14:00hrs at Egede in Udi LGA of Enugu State.
He is hale and hearty.”
No judgement or opinion from me on the above, just context for the modern game.
But where I do have an opinion is that only an arrogant fool would use derogatory terminology like “conspiracy theory” to describe everyday life in less stable environs then our own.
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Hopefully England have a midfield today! That means that hopefully the comically over-rated Alli’s niggle means the coach who didn’t take Wilshere for fitness reasons won’t start a second game in four days when he’s not fully fit, and that others who have played some football already in the tournament get the chance to show their worth again.
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Alli starts. He’ll probably score the winner following my comment above.
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Keown is a Muppet, at least refs are getting things wrong without Var taking away their responsibility FFS
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Aaron Eyoma has signed for Derby after being released by Arsenal and Josh Benson has signed for Burnley
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just a week till Arsenal’s first game of preseason
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Like watching an all championship QTR after an all Prem one
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fell asleep watching that,
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so the England players will have four weeks from the end of the world cup till the start of the bpl, Arsenal only have Welbeck in the squad
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are England the World Cup 2018 version of the Greece Euro Champions of 2004
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probably the best VAR development during this world cup is how since a couple of penalties were given for holding and dragging at freekicks and corners, we now see this awful type of spoiling tactic gone from the game, what a pity the BPL seen fit to delay VAR, imagine the improvement this alone would bring to the English game.
If VAR is implemented correctly we will actually one day see defenders actually have to learn to defend properly and we will see attackers have to stop cheating and diving.
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Not long left now so what’s general view on world cup?
I think it’s been very good but not great. Excellent on the drama front, but a little short on end-to-end action with high quality, and no great team/s.
Main shock to me on a personal level is that my attitude to England isn’t what I thought it was. Thought I supported them as I did as youngster during Euro 96, but with caveat of if they got very deep I might have second thoughts.
Obviously understand English people, including here, enjoying the ride immensely, and having no time for those who aren’t, but it seems my club hat is now made of metal and fused onto my skull.
No Arsenal players, plus a heavy contingent in squad of players I dislike from prem action, plus my dislike for most of the pundits who are loving it…only became clear to me during Columbia game how I really felt.
Biggest concern with that Arsenal hat on is that should they go and do it all the main players might receive lifetime triple England captain privileges from media and, sure as eggs is eggs, refs.
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Scary, as the spud Scouse and Mancs get enough already
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Without going all ‘coming home’, I’ve been rather proud of England’s progress so far. It’s hardly surprising that the England team is stuffed with Spurs from a league that is appx. 66% overseas players (BBC stats 2017). Beats me how they manage it on their budget.
Very disappointed that Arsenal could not make a similar contribution to the national side.
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reports that Arsenal have agreed a deal for Lorient French U20 Midfielder Matteo Guendouzi (19).
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Matteo Guendouz
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Looks like we got a spurs pretending to be Arsenal little Englander. Maybe if you look at the U 19 etc you will find quite a few Arsenal. I would dispute the selection of one or two of those spuddies anyway.
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Self righteous, I wouldn’t be over concerned about Arsenal players at the World Cup, at all.
The likes Spurs and Liverpool are on a spike of relative achievement, yet still no trophies which we were told for years is the only yardstick of success, we have been on a relative dip , but over the last couple decades plus, we have done a lot more than just provide players for the England national team, and for most of it, on a far lesser budget than the aforementioned.
Football is a cyclical experience. We all know what will soon happen to the Spurs team, I also have cautious expectations that given a bit of time, we will rise from our, relative, doldrums, if three trophies since 2014 and at worst a sixth place finish really can be called the doldrums, outside the media that is.
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One of the things I have enjoyed in this World Cup compared to the last in Brazil and the Euros in France is how VAR, while not perfect, has cleaned up the cheating and general shithousery in the penalty box. Its not surprising there are more penalties and far more goals from setpieces than any previous tourney. I think it is clearly related to the inability of central defenders to grab and wrestle their opponents to the ground with impunity. UEFA pretended they were addressing the problem with 2 Asst Refs behind the goals. What a frickin joke! After some egregious incidents of players being wrestled to the ground without action by VAR (Harry Kane and Mitrovic) Collina and FIFA cracked the whip. Can you imagine our friends in the PGMO taking any such action any time soon?
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Mandy
But I am concerned about the lack of Arsenal players in the England team. While I’m hardly likely to be chanting ‘Harry, Harry, Harry’ (for either of them) it would give me extra pride to see some of our team representing England,and it all reflects back to us in a positive light.
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Well, Guendouzi nicely ticks a few boxes for me to be an exciting addition, for someone I have literally not heard of till today.
Feel we need at least a couple of that type- young, big room for improvement, most likely not directly in scopes of richest- of transfer to come off for us big time in order to beat the wealthiest.
Dortmund’s title wins are what I look to : don’t know chronology but they struck gold a number of times- Piszczek, Subotic, Hummels, Lewa, Kagawa, Perisic, Reus, Gundogan, Aubameyang (few of those came after the title years), supplemented by some youngsters within, Goetze, Bender, (+ a couple of stalwarts- Schmelzer, Kehl, Grobkreutz, Blaszybloodyhellpolishnamesarehardkowski)
Anyway, it was enough to catch out Bayern for a couple of years at least. Our situation is different (they just had one giant to defeat in transfer market and on pitch), but still feels like much of it applies, particularly needing to find a few young players who are not yet great but turn out to be.
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Keep the faith Self Righteous, as Marky B says, we have some excellent prospects coming through the younger age groups, these players will work with a manager, like the man who came before him with an excellent rep for developing young players. They will also enjoy the support and learning from superb players already at the club,and some gnarled experienced types Emery and the team have bought in.
Wenger has left us in a very strong position to move forward,lets see what the future brings,things can change very quickly
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seen a real funny article on Football.london yesterday, its main points where that training under Emery has had 3 major changes to that of Wenger
1. Emery more hands on (yeah I know, micro manager AW who would not let anyone else do anything at training or so the same publication and journo used to claim)
2. Youth players being included in the first team training squad (we know it was unheard of for AW to include much young players in our first team squad)
3. more football being played in training (we all know how AW was into non stop running and physical training and disliked the football aspect of training)
by the way the journo was not being sarcastic with this article, he actually want us to believe that the 3 pts are facts
its along the same levels as Bould now smiling at training, the players drinking water at training and now tackles are the main focus of training.
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Arsenal won two titles in 89 & 91(?), how many from those squads made it into the England team? Sure GG did for Paul Davis’ England career, but otherwise they weren’t really utilised & were ignored I think (too long ago for me) until El Tel became manager, and by that time it was too late for Dixon & Winterburn but not Adams?
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Eds
Been nice to have seen a fit Chambo (if Southgate wasn’t going to pick JW) play at 8 alongside Sterling at 10 for this England team (never saw them as playing the same roles), would’ve been easier on the eye then the poor man’s limping Ramsey shoehorned into the 8 role for England. Chambo almost as unlucky with injuries as Cazorla who no doubt if fit would’ve graced this WC too.
And I guess that Southgate will stick with Alli and put him on Modric in the next match? Which got me thinking:
Modric player of the tournament so far? When was the last time AFC fans saw him?
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Modric was last seen in n5 during the transition cycle between the squads built around Fabregas and RVP and the squad that bought the three FA Cups and 2nd and 3rd in the league, an interesting reflection for me as we nearly come to the end of the transition sucker of that cup winning team and the new one at the start of this pre-season.
February 2012:
Arsenal
4-2-3-1
13 Wojciech Szczesny
3 Bacary Sagna 40′
6 Laurent Koscielny 31′
5 Thomas Vermaelen
28 Kieran Gibbs 75′
17 Alex Song
8 Mikel Arteta 42′
14 Theo Walcott 65′ 68′ 81′
7 Tomas Rosicky 51′
30 Yossi Benayoun 88′
10 Robin van Persie (c) 43′ 78′
Subs
21 Lukasz Fabianski
9 Chu-Young Park
15 Alex Oxlade-Chamberlain 81′
25 Carl Jenkinson 75′
27 Gervinho 88′
29 Marouane Chamakh
49 Ignasi Miquel
Tottenham
4-4-2
24 Brad Friedel
28 Kyle Walker
4 Younes Kaboul
26 Ledley King (c) 82′
32 Benoit Assou-Ekotto
21 Niko Kranjcar 46′
8 Scott Parker 30′ 87′
14 Luka Modric 29′
3 Gareth Bale
10 Emmanuel Adebayor 34′
15 Louis Saha 4′ 46′
Subs
23 Carlo Cudicini
7 Aaron Lennon
11 Rafael van der Vaart 46′
18 Jermain Defoe
20 Michael Dawson 82′
25 Danny Rose
30 Sandro 46′ 61′
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By November 2012 Modric was a goner marking the start of Levy’s special relationship and the great business man who is currently bullying the poor in n17 and running a round the clock building site as his big project fails to meet his deadline spent quite a lot of money on some signings whilst the Arsenal randomly dukes the signings of Mertesacker and Cazorla etc… panic signings is how I think Gary Neville described them.
And I am grateful for Gareth Southgate and his team showing how hard it was for them to set up their team to defend long throws (against Sweden) when compared to G.Neville four years ago. How any football fan in this land could defend the performance of that england set up specially the Nevilles’ (ongoing) hold on the FA make the mind boggle. That **** for that journalists sting on Biggus Sammus with the aid of the infamous pint of wine.
This was the emerging team that went on to some glory:
Arsenal
4-3-3
1 Wojciech Szczesny
3 Bacary Sagna
4 Per Mertesacker 24′
6 Laurent Koscielny
5 Thomas Vermaelen (c)
10 Jack Wilshere 72′
8 Mikel Arteta
19 Santi Cazorla 60′
14 Theo Walcott 90+1′
12 Olivier Giroud 45+1′ 86′
9 Lukas Podolski 42′ 80′ 80′
Subs
24 Vito Mannone
11 Andre Santos 80′
15 Alex Oxlade-Chamberlain 86′
16 Aaron Ramsey 72′
22 Francis Coquelin
23 Andrey Arshavin
25 Carl Jenkinson
Tottenham
4-4-2
25 Hugo Lloris
28 Kyle Walker 46′
13 William Gallas (c)
5 Jan Vertonghen
16 Kyle Naughton 46′
7 Aaron Lennon 45′
30 Sandro 66′
6 Tom Huddlestone 72′
11 Gareth Bale 71′
10 Emmanuel Adebayor 10′ 18′
18 Jermain Defoe
Subs
24 Brad Friedel
2 Clint Dempsey 46′
20 Michael Dawson 46′
22 Gylfi Sigurdsson
29 Jake Livermore
31 Andros Townsend
46 Tom Carroll 72′
–
Looking forward to see how the new team starts to blossom under the new gaffer now the chronic rebuilding phase (that’d be last season!) is over. As with the “panic buys”, the “fakes” and the “shambles” (all these key words/memes? Sounds like a textbook PR campaign…) the old gaffer was doing ok and settling in the new crew though at huge cost to his own hopes of glory (Europa league) but it had to be done, a last gesture of humble greatness from the great man.
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Transition cycle > transition sucker
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Nice to see Vermaelan make some kind of a recovery from those twin ankle horrors that scuppered his AFC/PL and international career (as a starter) and to come on for the closing moments of the QF against Brazil.
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“Transition cycle” above doesn’t mean a change resulting in a full new starting eleven, but a significant and staggered change involving a large number of players, the key players and the mythical “leaders” (I loved how AFC went through cycles of changing squad leaders whilst “having no leaders”), etc. within an entire squad, usually occurring over a 12 to 24 month period.
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Matteo Guendouzi who according to reports in France will join AFC tomorrow, was involved in a dressing room bust-up at Lorient last season, leading to him being excluded from 1st team action for 10 matches
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Torreira on verge of completing his move to Arsenal
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Kaveh Solhekol
Verified account @SkyKaveh
This is how England lined up last time they were in a World Cup semi final. Taken 28 years to go back to the same formation: Shilton – Parker, Walker, Butcher, Wright, Pearce – Waddle, Platt, Gascoigne – Lineker, Beardsley.
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Bayern & Germany
@iMiaSanMia
8h8 hours ago
Mustafa Özil: “Unfortunately, in Germany there are people who still have prejudices and reservations against us Turks”
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Arsenal.com have updated the first team squad, Martinez and Jenkinson listed again, as is Campbell, but he has no squad number and reports suggest he might be off to Lazio.
Leno still with no number, but he joins first team training tomorrow so we will probably hear his number then.
by the way, Vic Akers pen pic is now gone.
Ljunberg’s not added yet
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Bayern & Germany@iMiaSanMia
Mustafa Özil (Mesut’s father): “Mesut is disappointed, offended and abused. He has played for Germany for 9 years, he’s done a lot for this country, and now he’s put down as a scapegoat. If I were him, I would retire.”
Mustafa Özil on the Erdogan photo: “It was not a political statement and it wasn’t his first. He also has many photos with Merkel. Mesut is a shy person, he wouldn’t have refused to take a photo with a man like Erdogan. That would have been rude.”
“Erdogan is a dictator? So would you tell me why the WC is being held in Russia, a country ruled by an autocrat and the next one in Qatar. I don’t want to gloss over anything, but Mesut didn’t want to support Erdogan and the photo was spread by Erdogan’s party”
Why was Gündogan less criticised despite that he signed and dedicated the shirt to Erdogan? Mustafa Özil: “With all due respect to Ilkay, he only has 27 caps. Mesut is a bigger name. People want to scold the big names, that would sell papers”
Why didn’t Özil explain himself after the photo? Mustafa Özil: “He does not want to explain himself anymore, he does not want to always have to defend himself. It’s always been said, if we win we win together, if we lose it’s because of Mesut Özil”
Why didn’t Özil explain himself after the photo? Mustafa Özil: “He does not want to explain himself anymore, he does not want to always have to defend himself. It’s always been said, if we win we win together, if we lose it’s because of Mesut Özil”
“Unfortunately, in Germany there are people who still have prejudices and reservations against us Turks”
Why did Mesut play for Germany instead of Turkey? Mustafa Özil.: “My family has been living here for 50 years. Mesut was born Gelsenkirchen. Why would he play for a country he only goes to on holiday? I would say he is 80% German 20% Turkish”
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Eddy at 3:11 pm – Good call. Repeatedly I have been seeing an effort in some media circles to discredit and undermine Wenger’s legacy. That Bouldy is now smiling meme was the most laughable. Now a journo making up stuff of training routines between Wenger and Emery, Absolute b.s.
Mandy/Rich; Are you guys satisfied the defense has been improved sufficient enough for us to stop leaking goals like last year.
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just watched a video of that lad we are being linked with, Matteo Guendouz, and all I can say is that there is something of the Elneny’s about him
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Shotta, certainly some signings so far to bolster the defensive side of our game, with it seems another arriving. Delighted Chambers has extended, think he will be a very good player.
Will the numbers improve, immediately , I am not sure, the new manager needs time, but I expect them to be working towards improving numbers that were poor last season , very costly in terms of points, morale, and perhaps other things, and need addressing, I am sure Wenger would have done the same had be been still here. Finsbury and others have put forward some very plausible explanations for some of our goals against figures last season, and the one before, so this summer is the time to put a few things right, I am very confident that ultimately the new man will do so, as would have Wenger, and I am sure Arteta or whoever.
I look forward to their journey that is about to start. We have an excellent squad
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shotta I think most are hoping that the signing of Torreira, will be the missing link for our defense to tighten up, well that and possibly a little tweeking of tactics by Emery, where we will not see both fullbacks bomb on at the same time, and also when they do that they will get back quicker.
Add in the notion that Leno will be a much better keeper and we see summertime optimism, of course if AW was still in charge and signed Leno, Lichtsteiner, Sokratis, Torreira and Guendouz, after releasing Cazorla, losing Wilshere, and seeing Per retire, their would be non stop attacks on him and the club over a lack of investment and ambition, but as we all know, its all about the NARRATIVE
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seemingly the Sun and Mirror have ran a false story about Emmanuel Eboue being arrested for a breech of the peace in London, while the player was actually in Uganda,
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I’m optimistic there’ll be an improvement in goals against Shotta.
Strange situation for me though in that while I like all the defenders individually I still can’t name a back four that feels just right and gives me real confidence.
Partly that’s because in any top team but especially in the prem I feel it’s near essential to have at least one cb who is a monster in the air- a player who still has a chance to win a header even in unfavourable conditions, i.e. against a monster or when a big guy has a run at it- as opposed to someone who is decent or pretty good in the air for their size. Mavropanos has potential to fit that bill but he is very young.
My eye is so drawn to those occasions when a cb gives everything to win the header but only manages to make a little contact, either skidding off their head backwards or getting little distance with no control forwards. Every time I think, ‘someone great in air would reach that comfortably’
Who knows, maybe Sokratis, who I’m guessing is likely to start, will form a good partnership with Mustafi or Chambers, maybe Holding takes a chance when he gets it. But I don’t know how anyone could be highly confident or feel certain of anything at cb just at this stage.
Everything feels open to me. One thing I am pretty certain about is that the intention will be to protect the defence better from midfield and become less susceptible to counters.
My guess is that the plan may be to stay broadly the same at home, though with extra emphasis on avoiding counters, (which won’t be easy to achieve without a commensurate loss in attacking freedom and ambition *), while changing massively away from home, with the team set out with a more defensive structure and gameplan, instructed to be much more cautious about committing numbers forward, and more safety first in own half.
It’s going to be interesting. Especially as I expect the majority of teams to want to sit back against us at their home as well as away.
*I’ve yet to see an approach, in open play, that gives you your best chance of breaking down a bus that doesn’t involve committing large numbers forward.
Suppose France against Uruguay is a good recent example of a team refusing to give the ultra defensive side what they want. It wasn’t pretty.
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Eddy/Rich/Mandy: As a fan, I am always hopeful about my team’s chances. But, for obvious reasons, these days I now take a more analytical view. I would suggest we need to take the following approach: Are the changes/additions enough to overcome both the handicap in quality (City and United are arguably ahead of us, even the Totts although most of us are not willing to admit it) and the PGMO bias. Based on those two primary factors, I am not as sanguine as most of you guys.
By the way, most of our “friends” in other blogs and on Twitter refuse to accept these are objective constraints that have faced this club, certainly for the past 12 years.
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David OrnsteinVerified account @bbcsport_david
41m41 minutes ago
Two medicals taking place at Arsenal today – 22-year-old Uruguay midfielder Lucas Torreira from Sampdoria and 19-year-old France Under-20 midfielder Matteo Guendouzi from Lorient. Torreira key signing for immediate term, Guendouzi high-potential prospect for future
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shotta
Well, it’s indisputable for me that anyone who doesn’t understand or accept the role of finances in football can’t understand the game properly, and so the vast majority of professional and much of the amateur analysis of the club has been wrong, pretty much in proportion to how wrong they are about finances, over the last 10 years plus.
The ref thing is different, though to me there’s no doubt it’s a serious extra handicap.
As for how well reasoned my optimism is…not sure to be honest. Without doubt some of it is the simple, natural and not especially logical hope of the football fan at the start of a new era. I’m quite happy to go with that, with the knowledge that the time for actually getting a proper sense of how things are likely to go lies ahead.
There are some calculations involved as well,though, albeit ones that are surely shaped by the optimism.
Maybe it’s unfair to pay a lot of attention to the away form last year, what with it being unusually bad and so something that is likely to be subject to regression to the mean, but anyway I will. It didn’t feel unconnected to years past to me.
Anyway, as those bad away days kept happening, I often had the feeling that we would surely have been better off forgetting our commitment to an attacking philosophy, massively increasing the emphasis on defence, basically using the ideas nearly all teams do away, but with better players than most.
It’s not impossible we really did try something like that; if so it wasn’t evident at all and we failed alarmingly at it (would fit my theory that to get good at that sort of defending requires serious and full commitment, and almost certainly has to include recruitment with that goal in mind. A related one is that, at heart, a team is always one thing of the other and it always tells. Luckily there are, I hope at least, things to be one of between the extremes of (ultra) defence and extremely attacking.).
There’ve been a few games where I was hundred per cent sure we went out with something like that- a big departure from our norm- in mind (Bayern away where Robben wasn’t closed down by Coq for their 1st). It looked like we didn’t really have the right pieces to do it well, and those who might be able to do it well in time simply weren’t used to it.
So that’s my big assumption: there will be a lot of work done, with serious and full commitment, on the defensive side for away games. I believe this will lead to much better results on the road. (And even if I’m well off with that belief of our changed methods, I still thing we’ll do a good deal better away, thanks to good old regression to the mean!)
I’m not worried about implications of us compromising attacking identity, should I be right about new away approach, as the truth is it wasn’t, or at least didn’t feel like, there was a lot of beautiful football to compensate for the struggles. It was a case of being very vulnerable to the downside of an attacking philosophy without seeing nearly enough of the potential benefits.
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Ornstein saying these signings will be the end of Arsenal’s in coming this summer, so where would that leave the squad.
We will certainly see some of our goalies leave, be it sold or on loan, Leno, Cech, Ospina, Martinez, Macey and Illiev is probably 3 too many.
Bellerin, Lichtsteiner, Jenkinson is one too many at RB
Mustafi, Sokratis, Chambers, Holding, Mavrapanos, is about right for CB, till Koscielny comes back then its too many
Monreal, Kolasinac, is great at LB, probably means Bramall will need another loan
Midfield options, Ramsey, Torreira, Xhaka, Elneny, AMN, Willock, Guendouzi, is 4 experienced and 3 youths, will Willock be sent out on loan, what of DaSilva
Ozil, Mkhitaryan, Iwobi and youths like Nelson and Smith-Rowe give us forward options
up front Aubameyang, Lacazette, Welbeck, Lucas and maybe Akpom, plus of course young guys Nketiah and Mavadidi give us a strong selection, I think Campbell is certain to be gone. It remains to be seen who else of them leave, even if only on loan.
the squad has width but can we feel the quality, I’m not sure.
Fullback wise and forwards and strikers I think we have the depth and quality, Hopefully keeper wise too, but despite the real quality of Ramsey, Xhaka and Torreira have we enough quality in the back up in that sector, and the big one, have we the quality at CB, or is that one sector that it will be more about the set up, tactics, partnerships and organisation being right than the quality of the player there.
Lots of rumors all summer about us signing a winger, but maybe that was just wishful thinking or more likely the media just telling AFC fans what they think they want to hear. After all we all love the idea of an out and out winger, beating his man in full flow and either slotting home or setting up a simple finish for the on rushing striker, its the goals we remember, its how many believe is the best way to stop us being tippy tappy and how to break down a parked bus defense
Maybe ornstein is guessing when he says business is done in coming, time will tell.
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rich I would say that we did not approach away games any different than home games, but two things, three as the season went on, altered the results
1. the biggest one for me, the refs away from home really did give us an awful time, lack of clear cut penalties, phantom penalties against us, the non calling of fouls for us cos Arsenal don’t like it up them,
2. simple mistakes by our players, we seen our players make some crazy decisions in away games that we just did not see at home, we also played with a little less tempo away, meaning our attack was blunted,
the third thing was as the season went on, and the away form struggled, the players confidence away from home fell apart, it might only have made a 10% drop in performance, maybe even less, but that was enough. Our players got to the point where it seemed they just expected the officials to not give us the penalty, to flag us offside, to hand a penalty to the opposition, or for one of our guys to fuck up royally, if you like a self fulfilling prophecy. At home we were winning, so they played expecting to win, away we were losing and so it continued.
Its a new season, a new dawn, it could very well be that we will go the season unbeaten away, and struggle at home. A lot of this can depend on how we start the season, get the early wins and things can flow, struggle either at home or away and not only can it get in the players heads, but the NARRATIVE will be set in the media, in the blogs, etc, and it will make it so much harder. of course get on a run of wins and maybe just maybe the Narrative will be Emery to lead AFC to title in first season.
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