Some background
Apparently sitting around at home watching a lot of football has convinced many Arsenal fans they are experts at management, coaching, scouting, contract negotiations, commercial deals and, last but by no means least, the proper color of the team kit. As some of my British friends have commented, it is similar to the delusion now held by many punters that they are now experts on furniture restoration after watching the long advert on the use of French polish by Quest tv during their broadcast of the recent Emirates Cup games. It is one thing to fumble through a DIY project over a weekend, it is an infinitely greater magnitude of difference to being the football manager of a multi-million business such as Arsenal Football Club.
The profound difference between being an amateur observer versus an experienced hands-on professional manager is apparently lost on many fans especially those who have gained some notoriety as tweeters, bloggers and podcasters.
When I first interacted with Arsenal fans via blogs some 11-12 years ago, my aspiration was to become part of a community dedicated to supporting the club we loved, to be the proverbial 12th man. Back then I thought this would be the goal of every Arsenal fan given the clear Man United bias in the mainstream media and the British football establishment. I could never have been more naïve in my expectations.
Far from becoming an alternative to the increasingly corrupt mainstream media, most, not all, Arsenal bloggers are less about supporting the club and more about their ego and identification with being a winner. Nothing was more illuminating than the absolute failure of most bloggers to communicate and educate their readers that post-2005 the club and Wenger in particular were competing at a ginormous disadvantage to Abramovich’s Chelsea and the commercial giant at Old Trafford. The club would have to sacrifice investment in players to pay for its new stadium. Worse was to come with the 2008 takeover of City by the sovereign wealth fund of the UAE. It meant Arsenal had slipped from the 2nd biggest club in England financially to at least 4th place.
It was during those lean years that most bloggers, some now turned tweeters and podcasters, began to assume an air of superiority to Arsene Wenger. His so-called failure up to 2013 to add any trophies to his three PL titles including being an “Invincible” as well as five FA cups, had not only sealed his fate in their eyes but they were now empowered to choose the color of the curtains in the manager’s office for the new occupant.
Most of these bloggers-tweeters-podcasters still remain unrepentant despite Wenger proving them stratospherically wrong since 2013, when the shackles imposed by deals necessary to obtain financing the new stadium were finally eased. Three more FA cups and 20 years straight in the Champions League has seemingly embittered rather than humbled them. Somehow they think the new commercial contracts with Emirates Airlines suddenly made Arsenal equally competitive with the three money-bag clubs. But as the historically pro-Manchester United newspaper, The Guardian, was quick to point out:
“£30m a year from the Middle East airline, who have extended their shirt sponsorship by five years until the end of the 2018-19 season and secured the stadium naming rights, which were due to expire in 2021, until 2028. This marks a significant increase in revenue on the previous deal but falls short of Chevrolet’s £357m, seven-year sponsorship of Manchester United.”
Fact is Arsenal remains the 4th strongest Premier League club in financial capacity. As our blogmeister and twitter legend, the one and only @BlackburnGeorge, frequently reminds the factually and financially challenged members of the twiteratti, Arsenal’s objective expectation at the start of every PL season is to come 4th and to make a good cup run. The fact that we usually punch above our weight is due solely to the outstanding leadership of Arsene Wenger.
Despite clear demonstration by the manager that he is approaching the new season with greater resolve, having thoroughly demolished his detractors in the board room battle over his new contract, the usual gaggle of bloggers-tweeters-podcasters continue their stupid little games hoping Arsenal fans will buy into.
As an American, most cringe-worthy is the role of certain gooners across the pond, who, from at least 3,000 miles away, have decided they have the gravitas to criticize the player management strategy of the manager and his transfers (Yes, I know that’s the info you want and I am getting there). They are the perfect carricatures of Graham Greene’s “The Ugly American”. Rather than being humbled by the generosity of our British friends in giving them a platform to speak, they act arrogantly and crow noisily on subjects they have no expertise. How longer will this embarrassment continue? Will this welcoming mat always remain?
Halfway Into This Transfer Window
Unlike my compatriots who prefer to highlight their own opinions, in preparation for this blog, I spent quality time retrieving and making sense of the data from Transfermarkt from an Arsenal point of view. Before I present my findings let me remind you of some of the main characteristics of the transfer market:
- Unlike various well known stock or commodity markets, it was designed by FIFA and the big clubs to restrain trading activity to a fixed period of time and to restrict freedom of buyers and sellers. It is no supermarket shelf where Arsenal can identify and target, for example, all central midfielders available.
- Knowledge of willing buyers and sellers is restricted. Due to restrictions on tapping up, player agents play the main role of putting buyers and sellers together. Arsenal relies heavily on agents, not Dick Law, to make initial contact and bring the parties together.
- Information is restricted. Due to the opacity of the market, third party interests whether as owners or agents are now flourishing in the grey area of the market. Due to this grey activity Arsenal reportedly refuses to do business with certain super agents.
Findings as of July 30th based on the top 100 transfers:
- £1.645 billion is the value of transfer fees worldwide mostly in Europe.
- £1.363 billion is the market value of the players acquired.
- Clubs worldwide paid a 17% premium in transfer fees vs market value.
Premier League is the biggest spender:
- £649 million in transfer fees or 39% of total fees spent.
- £415 million in market value of players acquired.
- 36% premium in transfer fees vs market value, i.e. double the worldwide premium.
In contrast to the Premier League, the Bundesliga clubs are very value conscious:
- £192 million in transfer fees.
- £188 million in market value of players acquired.
- 2% premium in transfer fees vs market value, i.e. 800% less than the worldwide premium.
Who doubts Bayern will hand it to a PL club in next year’s champion’s league?
Manchester City is the PLs biggest spender:
- £194 million in transfer fees.
- £103 million in market value of 5 players acquired.
- 47% premium in transfer fees vs market value, i.e. nearly triple the worldwide premium.
Check/Cheque Guardiola indeed!
Chelsea is no slouch:
- £119 million in transfer fees.
- £69 million in market value of 3 players acquired.
- 42% premium in transfer fees vs market value, i.e. 250% above the worldwide premium.
Manchester United have distinguished themselves as making the biggest splash in the transfer market so far. Their purchases show the same trend as City and Chelsea:
- £102 million in transfer fees.
- £61 million in market value of 2 players acquired.
- 40% premium in transfer fees vs market value, i.e. 250% above the worldwide premium.
Contrast Arsenal with the big money clubs:
- £45 million in transfer fees.
- £47 million in market value of 2 players acquired.
- -4% premium in transfer fees vs market value, i.e. 400% less than the worldwide premium.
Value wise AFC has limited downside risk to the players acquired yet they are clear degrees superior in value to the players they are nominally replacing. Lacazette’s market value is £34m vs Perez which is £12.75m. Similarly Kolasinac is valued at £12.75m versus Gibbs who is rated £8.50m.
Most importantly, Arsenal has improved the quality of players in both forward line and in defense. It is self evident that the next area for improvement is in central midfield. My confidence is based on the research I have done demonstrating, with data, the critical importance of missing Santi Cazorla during our last two failed league challenges. Additionally I did two blogs in the second half of last season quantifying deficiencies in central midfield. I am therefore convinced this is Wenger’s focus.
By the way almost all the bloggers and podcasters are now singing the same tune we wrote months ago, i.e. the need for a central midfielder acting as a secondary playmaker. Seemingly they all read this blog while pretending they don’t. As we always remind ourselves at PA, we rely on the unbiased data. It is constant, silent and unemotional but it is undeniable. By trusting the data we almost always arrive at the correct conclusions.
As usual I leave the final word to the genius, who is again playing the transfer market like a fine fiddle, i.e. to Arsene:
“I believe there are actually two ways to improve the team. First of all to improve the quality of what we do in training to improve the squad and improve the players we have, and secondly to bring more top-level players in.
“The difficulty is to bring top-level players in because you pay a huge amount of money for very normal players at the moment. As well, all the big clubs are chasing the same players and that provokes huge inflation. Maybe this will be the first time we [football clubs] pay over £200m, maybe over £300m with Neymar and around £200m with Mbappe.
“So there is a huge inflation. But we are active, we are working hard and I think we have done well with Kolasinac, we have done well with Lacazette and we are continuing to work.
“There’s the usual acceleration in the final part of August,” added Wenger, “But I think you have always to be on alert every day, because a good opportunity might turn up.
“Sometimes people you are after for a long time are not available and suddenly they become available. So you have always to be on alert. That’s what we do.”
I will do a follow-up at the end of the window.
Positively Arsenal 
Good read Shotta.
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Excellent Shotta – I was scratching around in the mud trying to find a few original words to say about the Emirates Cup weekend when you saved me from the embarrassment.
We are going into the season with the strongest squad I can remember for any season under Wenger with two good options in every position, and a number of high quality youngsters pressing their claims for a step up into first team action at an early date. And unlike previous seasons our long distance touring has not resulted in multiple injuries and gaps in the starting line up as we approach the opening game.
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@anicoll5: I completely agree with you that this is the strongest squad in years. As I demonstrated the two new additions have qualitatively improved the forward line and defending. The only remaining deficiency in my opinion is in central midfield. I think it will be sorted by August 31st although there are no guarantees; the right player must come available. As I emphasized in the blog, the usual suspects will do everything to disguise, confuse and obscure these facts.
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Man United have made 2 major signings this summer in Lukaku and Lindelof, not one
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Good article Shotta and well timed as it arrived just after my oxygen fix. That by the way has a bad influence on the old fart’s thoughts which go by the board as my real thoughts go to my next fix.
Watching our games (albeit 3 cups in 3 months) I have to confess to one thought that is that I’d give up my right testicle (not that it does much for me these days) for a Frank Lampard, happy to shoot from 25 yards or more and take advantage of any deflections that may occur along the way. To my mind we don’t yet have a real and consistent threat if Alexis isn’t around.
But real enjoyment from the potential of young Riess and also Sead who really looks the part.
Doubtless we shall learn much more this week end.
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Big ups Shotts…
There’s so many in the Gooners-sphere venting their spleens in the darkness of what should and shouldn’t transpire during the window, when the context of this blog shows us exactly the angles that need to be illuminated.
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Excellent stuff.
Plenty of work surely went into it (type of stuff the people paid to do it as a full time job seem strangely incapable of doing) and that’s a stroke of inspiration to present market value vs fees in that fashion.
For years I’ve been aware something strange in going on with prem vs rest of Europe and, especially, Germany, now you provide some solid proof.
Full agreement about central midfield, though I struggle to name exactly who or even what type of player is the ideal fit.
One of the big difficulties for me is that so few teams play like us, so how do you evaluate, say, how a player who sits deep with another deep midfielder in a true defend and counter team is likely to do within our much more positive approach, where for at least half our games we are playing against teams sat deep in their half?
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A reader (Mr Scripto) has caught an error in my blog; United has made 2 major signings so far. No difference, both overpriced. Update on its way.
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Is it not now 3, with Matic?
Thanks for your interesting post.
As a refugee from what was a good quality blog, but which deteriorated to nothing more than an Anti-Wenger hate fest, I especially appreciate your opening paragraphs, which reflect what I had been trying to get through to the other participants, but made no headway.
I think by and large, the great care utilised by AW and his colleagues in the transfer market has meant that the players bought have usually always been an improvement and beneficial. There are exceptions, but it is the exceptions, that usually make the rule.
I have a feeling that the reason why so many seem to be bought at the death, is because, by then ,selling teams become more realistic and the players that could have been acquired earlier on for much more, now became available at less.
We can see with Lacazette, that there may be players that AW perceives are not worth the wait, but it remains to see if he will pull another rabbit out of his hat in a few weeks time.
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I really enjoyed reading that. Please forgive me, but given the educational content, I’m afraid I shall be nicking info to use in educating as well.
You have been warned. Hahaha!
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yes Rich, its like how the idiots who think cos on paper we and chelsea line up with a 3-4-3 formation that both formations are set out the same way, while they have two defensive central midfielders and we have a playmaker and a a box to box, but all the twitter and blogger experts can see is the 3-4-3, not actually how it works
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I see Wenger pointed out why some of our players are performing better in preseason than others, and its simply that most of those playing better are the ones who have been back in training the longest. For example young Nelson was in the first batch back, and Bellerin was in the last batch back, as was Holding, so of course Nelson is not as likely to be suffering from the fitness work, and has already been able to work on the ball playing end of training, while Hector and Rob are still at the heavy end of the lifting so to speak, and are yet to hone their touch and ball playing part of training, and so over the weekend we seen both miscontrol the ball a number of times.
anyone with any experience of doing heavy physical training in preparation for competitions or leagues, will know how it not only leaves you a bit lacking in energy, but how you playing skills are down that little bit too. then all of a sudden when you are physically sharp and full of energy how quickly your game skills improve. But all this seems a mystery to the uber bloggers and uber twitter accounts, maybe its that none of these experts have ever played the game or any sport at any sort of decent level, but then why would financial experts and kit designers and club historians(own version of history) and transfer experts ever have played a sport to a decent level, how would they have had the time.
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can someone explain to me what is the story about Kroenke and a hunting channel that seems to have caused a rise in fake outrage among some Arsenal fans. I see lots of condemnation but so far have not seen exactly what it is all about. Just abuse etc.
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Emile Smith-Rowe has singed his first pro deal at Arsenal.
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fucking hell, usual managerial bullshit,
players are tired for the Community Shield, due to overseas tour, and the heavy fitness workload.
Wenger making excuses again before the game is even played
what’s that you say, it wasn’t Wenger who said it, it was Conte.
Conte has a point, these overseas tours are a joke, teams should stay at home and prepare for the season, the money men are ruining the game, poor Conte, how can he prepare for the CS with bull like this, and what about the poor players, its hard enough to do preseason fitness work without adding in all this foreign travel.
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eduardo1966 @edminton1966 now
going by the amount of fake outrage over KSE hunting channel I can only assume I have underestimated the number of vegans there are
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do you think my above tweet will boil piss, ha ha ha.
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The data which demonstrates that certain clubs are over paying and thereby feeding the inflationary surge neatly meshes with Wengers comments today regarding the increasing likelihood that players will see out their contracts in order to push up their salaries when they move for no fee. Kolosinac obviously did this and we benefited. We may well ‘lose out’ when others move away. But what happens to us will happen to others and the whole market will shift accordingly. Being seen to be somewhere players want to come (pull factors) will become increasingly important and being a club that promotes youth (not just recently but consistently over the long term) will be just as vital.
I believe that as we enter this new era it is absolutely vital to have a manager who has exhibited those qualities over the long term. Thank goodness we’ve still got him.
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Man Utd have just sign Matic, a player who was dropped by Jose when CFC manager, cos “he needs too many touches to control the ball”.
must have been recommended by a certain agent
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Wenger on Kanu and Wiltord not playing many games when in last year of their contracts at AFC “sometimes a player contract runs down because the club no longer want to keep them”
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Alexis is flying back to London this evening. Think he is due back at training tomorrow
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Excellent. Thank you shotts.
The blaggers are indeed late with their appreciation of The Saint. However they’re some way behind the match going crowds who were singing songs for this player from the off, what could the average punter see from the off with this player’s arrival at AFC that the self anointed experts couldn’t?
Modric is no Cazorla, but fans of that player at his older clubs will still remember him and rightfully so he’s almost as good as post injury Rosicky: what makes such Experts believe that footballers like Cazorla grow on trees? Perhaps if they ever discussed the ‘effing Football they might clock on?
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jjgsol: Thanks for your comment. The data from transfermarkt is as of 7/30/17. I have no intention of doing any updates to my findings until the window closes on 8/31/17.
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The specialist in signing players signed up to special contracts.
“He moves in, mysterious ways…”
(Not a fan of U2 – so it’s a fitting reference)
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One thing that struck me from my research is how the money-bag clubs in England consistently overpay for mediocre talent and are falling further behind European clubs in the champions league. As I just tweeted, so far Man City spent more on xfrs than Budesliga-1 clubs:
City: £194m in xfr fees, paying a 47% premium on their market value.
Bundesliga: £192m in xfr fees, paying only a 2% premium.
Yet it is likely the English clubs will start as underdogs in games vs German clubs like Bayern and Dortmund in next years champions League.
This wasteful expenditure is simply unsustainable in the long run. It recently took a self-serving Spurs chairman, Daniel Levy, to confirm what those of us who work in finance and economics have been saying for ages. But don’t expect the English mainstream media, bloggers, tweeters and podcasters to highlight the threat this poses to the future of the PL and the English game as a whole. They generate more clicks pretending to know better than Arsene Wenger.
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I remember when Cazorla was signed:
We knew he’d been first choice for Spain’s Great team whenever Iniesta or Xavi were out (ahead of the F Word), we’d seen him star for Pellegrini’s yellow submarine. But it was only when we got to watch the player for ninety minutes every week and heard and saw how he inspired football lovers that we could appreciate his quality. And even then nothing is taken for granted. The player who said no to Madrid had never won a club trophy before arriving at AFC but he went on to leave his own personal mark on the fa cup.
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Shotta, Value Added Tax is the equaliser?
A player in the European Union, moves on a free, no VAT!
That is hyper financial claw back.
It would seem to my simple mind , that StatDNA are influencing Mr Wenger, to some degree in recent transfers?
Holding, a plus, but Perez a minus? so, we ponder on the unknown unknowns?
It must be time, for my next blood transfusion!
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Arsenal fans already experts in management, coaching, scouting, contract negotiations, finance and commercial deals and kit design have added another feather to their caps today – wildlife activists.
Arsenal twitter remind of Forrest Gump’s “life is like box of chocolates…” quote.
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glorious piece Shotts and far to logical for the media monkeys. I would say the individual talent of this squad may be the best in a very long time however football is a team game and I think we are still a while away from geling as a smooth footballing team. We have produced moments of silk and steel but we can also get stuck in the mud of low tempo mundainess at times. We still produce basic errors that the league cup teams filled with youth never made back in the day. I would say sundays winner was one such error that we have seen over and over again from a raft of players over the last few seasons and something we need to cut out if we are going ti sneak wins in tight games.
As far as ol danny levy is concerned I dont think there has been any brilliant wisdom from the man just lewis telling him to stop wasting my fucking money, I think levy, a serial waster, had his knuckles rapped and simply told NO!
As far as players in are concerned I have hoping for a while for a left winger, with a left foot and who will go past players rather than coming back inside every fucking time Alexis, oops sorry thats a different issue, I just want a left winger
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labo you can add that they are now also experts on hunting and blood sports in general, including fishing, even the ethics of the topic, and they are also experts on TV Channel programming choices.
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isn’t it funny seeing arsenal fans outraged at kroenke over a tv hunting channel, and quickly correct anyone who mentions usmanov and crimes with the reply – “alleged crimes” – yet they will not answer the question as to what actual crimes Kroenke has committed with this hunting tv channel. odd that, its almost as if the whole thing is fake outrage.
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I must make it clear that I am anti bloodsport, and in fact I would quicker watch a hunter getting killed by an animal than the other way round. And I freely admit that I am as hypocritical as the next man when it comes to animal welfare, I don’t want to know how the meat on my plate was mistreated when it was alive, I don’t want to know about the circumstances of its death be that a bolt to the head or other. I don’t want to think about the cramped conditions the producers of my morning egg live in, or the force feeding of the chicken breast on my plate etc etc etc.
So forgive me if I find this whole fake outrage at KSE and its hunting tv channel, rather over the top.
I do wonder how governments get away with dismantling the NHS, how we have so many homeless, so many under the breadline, etc etc, when we have so many people who would surely not stand for it, after all look how upset a hunting tv channel has made them, imagine what they are doing to help stop the mistreatment of other humans. no I thought not.
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The fake outrage on twitter about the hunting channel is just another example of why you should never believe the msm. A 5 minute research reveals MyOutdoorTV.com is an internet television channel that provides streaming TV shows and product demonstrations to hunters, shooting sports enthusiasts, anglers, campers, boaters, and hikers.
You would think after brexit, Trump we would have learnt our lesson by now; apparently not.
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This latest outrage is on behalf of those who proclaim that they are against Modern Football, but are in favour of Wexit, uncovered pitches (wrong sport) and eating pies for a commercial bet on a reality show (Murdochian not Modern Football).
Just don’t mention Fizman’s blood diamonds. Nope. That could be: inconvenient.
Things would’ve been so much better for us all if the mates (employers?) of the aaa had taken over the club and spent as much as O’Leary at Leeds and taken the club down the same path as Forest.
Ever wondered about the weird press regarding AFC? Risdale, Scudamore and chums, they hate the Arsenal.
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morals in football, ha ha ha
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The fake outrage about Kroenke’s support of hunting is just another example of “virtue signalling” on social media. Phony and short-lived. With very few exceptions, the people raising hell on twitter couldn’t give a rat’s arse about the horrible factory farms in meat & poultry. See how concerned they become if prices rise because of a clampdown on these notorious factory farms especially those in America.The whole thing just boils my piss.
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@ianspace2014:
I cannot agree with you more about the devastating potential of having a genuine left footed wide player in the team. Especially on Saturday I had visions of a certain Monacan working in tandem with Kolasinac to isolate the right back or the right-sided center-back and then rain in crosses into the box whether to near post, far post or into the six-yar box for Giroud, the physically most dominant central striker in the league to feast on or even a predator like Lacazette. I can see why the club is desperate to sign Lemar.
As an older man I have a right to my visions while young men can dream dreams.
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left footed left wide man, would that not mean no place for Alexis
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one of the funniest things about the fake outrage over the kse hunting channel, is the afc fans who always harp on about the fans owning Arsenal, who now claim that stan’s 67% of shares do not give him just a majority shareholding in Arsenal, but it makes him the OWNER
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The kick-off time of Sunday’s Community Shield game has been moved from 3pm to 2pm to avoid a clash with the Womens Euro Final.
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can anyone confirm if kos is suspended for the CS, and 1 BPL game, or if he can play in CS and the suspension only applies to the league games.
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i’ve seen it all now, some kroenkeout think that the board and usmanov could vote through a hostile takeover, its amazing how little people know yet act like know it alls.
Stan can not be forced to sell up, no takeover can happen without his agreement. its one share = one vote and as stan has the majority of shares his votes will defeat any motion he wants to defeat.
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claims in Brazil that Wellington Silva is joining Werder Bremen and that AFC will get its share of the fee. WS failed a medical last week with Bordeaux due to an inflamed pubis/groin strain
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just seen someone who wants usmanov to take over Arsenal, describe kroenke as a “vile sub-human”,
well I suppose anyone who won’t spend their billions on Arsenal to win the trophies we all want(but not the fa cup or league cup, no they don’t count anymore) must be a sub-human.
what is it about football that makes people lose all reason, or sense, values or morals.
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have to laugh at the naivety of the anti hunting crew who seem to believe that Arsenal fans are outraged and want rid of stan over this hunting channel, when its just any sugar daddy they want in, mass murderers, human right violators, rapists, wife beaters, what ever, will be acceptable to most of them, as long as BPL and CL are bought for Arsenal(and by Arsenal I mean the fans)
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Alexis was at training today
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I’m that outraged at blood sports and this kse tv hunting channel that I’m going to demand Stan sell up his Arsenal shares and let a sugar daddy take over the club. that will put an end to all this animal cruelty
no need to take the channel off air, and certainly no need to loby politicians to make blood sports illegal. No that would not make a difference, but if we can get Usmanov in control of Arsenal, then that will end it once and for all.
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it seems Jan Van Loon has left his role as Head of individual development at the Academy
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found this comment on another arsenal blog over the hunting channel outrage interesting
Pistol Fish
1st August 2017 at 12:16 pm
It is always a good idea to educate oneself before getting too hysterical.
Whilst I agree that killing anything simply for the sake of killing is wrong. These animals need to be periodically culled in order to relive unsustainable pressure on their limited environment. They will be shot either way be it by the hand of a trophy hunter or by the hand of a game warden.
The difference being that the trophy hunter will pay between $10k and $100k depending on the animal. This money goes directly back into the conservation of the land and animals. From providing food and housing to the conservation staff, anti poaching equipment and vetinary fees, some of it makes its way into the local communities. The meat from these animals is also distributed to the local communities who have a very hard time getting good protein.
I grew up on a game reserve in South Africa and whilst I’ve never taken to hunting for personal reasons, I’ve been around it my whole life. I’d much rather eat an animal that’s lived a a life in the wild and been humanely dispatched as opossed to one raised in a stall purely for consumption and fed bucketloads of antibiotics and steroids.
I don’t condone killing as s sport and I certainly detest the people that get pleasure from it.
But to the People on the ground working to conserve these animals for future generations it is a necessity. It’s a very unpleasant one That none of you that have never been involved in it should be so quick to judge.
The trophy hunters on the other hand are a disgusting bunch and deserve any judgment that comes their way.
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