This is my 50th or so blog for Positively Arsenal. Less than 2 years ago I accepted the challenge by the Boss to contribute something to this community and decided, since I was not as erudite as Steww and Andy Nic, to concentrate on providing analysis of long-term data trends affecting the club rather than pre-game or post game developments. The unbiased data has been a revelation; one of which is the importance of Arsene Wenger to Arsenal Football Club. On Friday John Cross of The Mirror, whom one must admit is well connected to the club, did a piece headlined Arsenal boss Arsene Wenger is making plans for the next TEN years at the Emirates and his readers were in an uproar. Hopefully nobody who reads and is educated by the various bloggers at PA is surprised by this development. On October 4, 2016 I published the data demonstrating Arsene will be the manager indefinitely. Despite all the sound and fury in the mainstream media, blogs, podcasts and on twitter, sensationalizing Arsene’s future, we at PA would have remained calm and serene, trusting the data. Here is what I wrote.
Unlike my more erudite colleagues at PA, my role is to inform and explain the sometimes boring but always unbiased data that serve as predictors of the competitive future of our club.
Due to the longevity of our great manager, we have 20 years of data covering 760 Premier League games that allow us to identify certain long term trends which are repetitive and predictable. Unlike the mainstream media and most of our colleagues who blog, podcast or tweet we do not have to resort to cheap sensationalism to make our point. A review of two very important developments will illustrate my point.
Wenger20
The celebration of Wenger’s 20 years as manager of the club was marked by a massive orgy of hyperbole and bogus platitudes by the mainstream media that must have left the manager bemused. After all, less than six months ago the self-same media, led by serial phone-hacker Piers Morgan, were eagerly fanning the flames of discontent and provoking demonstrations by fans to drive Wenger Out.
I therefore feel great empathy for our own Pedantic George when he vented in the Comments section of the blog last Saturday:
“Seeing a shower of absolute bastards, currying favour on the back of Arsene’s 20th anniversary, is turning my stomach.”
Unfortunately there is nothing that either George, I, or you the reader can do that will change the behavior of these “bastards”. It is totally consistent with my “greed and despair” paradigm to which I frequently refer. (More details here.) They are simply “sensationalizing,” preying on emotions. Notice that every member of the commercial media in England and on this side of the pond (i.e. NBC which has the Premier league broadcast rights) is doing a special on Wenger proclaiming how great he is. It makes commercial sense. Arsenal fans in particular are drawn to it in droves and those eyeballs online mean money especially for those newspapers who are bleeding readership, because the public has increasingly lost faith in them thanks to their mendacity and bias.
Yet six weeks ago, in mid-August, I did a blog showing that in the collective wisdom of nearly 40 pundits from both ESPN and BBC, Arsenal under Arsene was predicted to come 3rd in the league, in direct contradiction to the historical data. It defies reason that most journalists, pundits or bloggers within weeks, sometimes days, of declaring Wenger no longer fit for purpose, write such voluminous paeans and odes of praise to his greatness.
Unlike the mainstream media and the majority of vacillating, wavering Arsenal bloggers, we have cold hard data to justify our firmly held conviction that Arsene is not only the greatest manager this club has ever had but he is set to continue indefinitely. A contract is already in his hands and I am sure the board will be anxious as kittens until he signs. Like the bankers who demanded he agree to remain as manager for five years after moving into the new stadium, we rely on past performance, not sentiment.
“Consistency, thou art a jewel” – Shakespeare
What is undeniable, from the graphic above, is that under 20 years of Arsene’s management the club has recorded the joint second highest average points per season (74) among all clubs, despite being massively outspent by United, Chelsea and City and at times, Liverpool. Despite the over one billion pounds invested in Chelsea by Abramovich in the past 12 years, the gap between them and Arsenal is negligible. (Note the graphic is generous to City whose average is calculated over 16 years by excluding the four seasons they were in the 2nd and 3rd flight of English football.) Also observable is the considerable gulf between between the Gunners and its North London rivals, in the order of 20 points. Of all his rivals Arsene is yet to overhaul or match Manchester United, a realistic prospect in the first ten years until the club decided to focus its resources on building a new and bigger stadium.This is a handy segue to doing what is now standard in my analyses which is measure Wenger’s consistency in the pre-Emirates versus the Post-Emirate years.
Pre-Emirates
The graphic and figures are crystal clear. Even though Wenger did not have the capacity to make record transfers in the magnitude of Ferguson at United, he had sufficient resources and the managerial nous to be on average only three (3) points inferior to the biggest and most successful club in England (80 vs 77 points). Despite inferior finances Arsene/Arsenal was able to capture three EPL titles including the singular honor of an Invincible, two doubles including the Invincible year and four FA cups. In contrast, Manchester City, without the financial resources of the Abu Dhabi group, had in the same ten-year span spent four years outside of the top flight generating a piddling season average of 23 points, less than one-third of Arsenal’s.
Post Emirates
With the austerity brought on by the stadium move, as well as Chelsea and City becoming the unprecedented beneficiaries of deep-pocketed sugar-daddies, Wenger was simply unable to compete in the transfer market. Nonetheless Arsenal remained consistently among the top-three clubs in points earned with the season average dropping by six (6) to 71 points. It is notable that despite the hundreds of millions spent by Chelsea, their season average is no better than Wenger’s 77 points during his first ten years. Similarly, a big spender like City, with ten years to get a run at a financially crippled Wenger, is still three (3) points behind in current season average. Liverpool, despite the constant churn of managers, players and owners remain in-situ. That is not a comforting statistic if the scousers ever hope to catch and surpass Arsenal.
Now that Arsene/Arsenal is able to consistently spend on top-top quality players as well as patiently develop those coming through the academy, only the rabid anti-Wenger WOBs and weak-willed fans who allow themselves to become victims of groundless doom-mongering by the media, would bet against Wenger at least regaining the ground lost over the past ten-years. If he is as competitive as his brother Guy disclosed in that recent newspaper interview, Arsene will be dying to prove he has the same, if not more longevity, than his older sibling who retired at 70. How many of you, dear reader, are willing to put up a wager?
Will the haters put up or shut up?
Positively Arsenal 
A fine start to Thursday from Shotta – just when you thought it was safe to go to bed !!
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Charles WattsVerified account @charles_watts 38m38 minutes ago
Wenger on Kolasinac: “We can deny that story at the moment. Nothing has been concluded.”
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Alexis has not made the PFA team of the year. Mane, Hazard, Lukaku and Kane are the four attackers
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Injury update – Welbeck is a doubt, Mustafi and Perez are out, and Ospina could be back in 10 days.
Wilshere will remain at AFCB for rest of season but will do his rehab in the summer at Arsenal.
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For once looking at the PFA team of the year I can have no complaints – no Arsenal player has been a contender.
Well obviously I can have complaints – I am an Arsenal fan after all.
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Adrian’s more generous than I am
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IGood stats Shotta. I hope AW agrees with you.
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Adrian has Azpilicueta as a center back. Hmm.
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An odd one that Shotts from Adrian – I see they have not gone “three at the back” which I was expecting
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One oddity of both lists is that the only one player to have played in the CL after Christmas – admittedly it is a PL focussed list but even so it emphasises the parochial strand of English punditry and what players regard as the ‘bar’ to reach.
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It is always disappointing when Arsenal do not have players who are recognised as worthy of being included in the PFA Awards for Premier League Team of the Year.
Of course the selections are always subjective as Adrian Clarke has demonstrated, but in fairness it is difficult to argue the case for inclusion of players against the professional opinions of the players.
Despite that, and disregarding the shenanigans regarding his ‘attitude’ [storm in a teacup] I would think that, even in a less than perfect season, our man Alexis should have got in ahead of Lukaku. Sezme!
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Alexis is still one of the nominees for the PFA player of the year Henry and our boy has an arguable case as he has done more across the board, goals+assists, and more tackles than any other contender but Kante.
My guess is Kante will win it, as he probably should have done last year, but you never know !!
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At last – something to disagree with, Anicoll. Yipee.
The PFA PL Team of the Year votes are made by players with PL credentials, and this implies that they are voting for both their own team mates, and the players of other clubs that they have come up against in the PL.
The fact is that of the 20 clubs in the PL, only 4 have played in the CL. So on average, there may well have been (say) 15 players qualified to vote [20 * 15] = 300 players — of whom [4 * 15] = 60 played in the CL = 20%.
Conversely, that means the majority [80%] of PL players could only judge other players on purely their PL performances, as they did not play with or against them in the CL.
Pedantic, I know – but we always need comment diversity to make the blog world go round. lol
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But to balance the books, Anicoll, I agree with your 11:31 a.m.
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Speaking of managers, it seems the Wenger-outers and hipsters can no longer sustain their recent flavor-of-the month campaign for Thomas Tuchel to become Arsenal’s new manager. Apparently he has committed the unforgivable sin of being unable to hold onto ambitious players who need the riches and fame of Bayern Munich, struggling to achieve top-3 in the Bundesliga and as of yesterday failing to go further than the quarter-finals falling to Monaco who despite the growing hype are champions league outsiders.
By the way I have been watching Monaco closely in the last two rounds of the UCL and as I said before there is a lot of exceptionally talented young French players on that team. Mbappe is eerily a clone of Henry, if not more powerful, and at 18 years is definitely ahead of Titi at that age. As is obvious from the media coverage, Mbappe and cohorts are coveted by the biggest clubs in Europe. If Martial went for £60 million, Pogba for £90 million just imagine the exalted fee the young French forward will go for. There is no way Arsene and Arsenal will splurge the proverbial “warchest” on a single player. That we all know is why Arsene and Arsenal will struggle to compete with the big spenders in England and Europe.
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Andy, perhaps Adrian needs a better anorak ?
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Those zips can be treacherous fuckers.
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Its the teeth you have to watch
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A great piece by Shotta
I look forward to some rigorous analysis from HenryB and NOTH?
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Thanks Shotts
–
Never pay much attention to these awards.
As you all might remember from when Bellerin made his debut opposite Mane in Mane’s first season, its clear that I like and rate Mane (in spite of that goal he scored at the beginning of this season), and, well, his passing stats might have been higher then Sanchez’s but looking at the other cold hard data:
Mane:
27 games
13 goals
Sanchez (yes he played a spell a cf)
29 games
18 goals
Sorry everyone, but my favourite short-circuiting maniac (Sanchez) is still obviously a very useful player. I think the author might agree with me
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If you are interested Fins there is a great tool on the Liverpool website on which you can compare the stats of any Liverpool player against any other PL player, including Sanchez
http://www.liverpoolfc.com/team/first-team/player/sadio-mane#stats
Our man is ahead in all categories – apart from passing accuracy (banned winkey thing)
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cannot argue with the stats. I am less convinced than some that Mr Wenger sill stay on, just a gut feel more than anything else,
But stay or leave, his achievements…some obvious, others more subtle….and such stats remain.
As for player of the year, would pay about as much attention to that as I would Miss Universe
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Shotta – you are an incomparable and erudite source of information!
The ultimate parent company and controlling party, of the Arsenal, is KSE UK Inc In the State of Delaware the File Number is 4326823 and was incorporated on the 30th March 2007.
As his mother is well-connected in the grocery business, young Josh Kroenke is someone to take a gander at.
He is a mover and a shaker, to wit, and I quote:
“During his tenure with the Nuggets, Kroenke Sports has adapted to numerous changes on and off the court to win at least 50 games in five straight non workstoppage seasons.
and further
“. On February 22, 2011, he helped orchestrate one of the biggest trades in league history, completing a three team, 13 player deal with the New York Knicks and Minnesota Timberwolves. After the trade, he and the Nuggets front office continued to prove its roster through the draft and the trade market, and the Nuggets went on to win a team record 57 wins during the 2012-13 season. It marked the 10th straight year Denver ached the playoffs – the second longest active streak in the NBA
I will leave Henry B, to explain the ins and outs of these outlandish American sports.
It destroys the legend that the Kroenkes’ “lack winning titles”? No interest in soccer. The usual drivel from the AST, and their ludicrous press puffs.
Changes are in the offing, and I would hint, behind drawn curtains, it would seem that Josh Kroenke is flexing his muscles!
………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………..
COTG
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Think you are right NOTH, there will be some changes afoot. Guess one of my concerns, they may, or may not suit the man, who knows ,hopefully they are all on board… but things will soon be clear.
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NOTH: Awesome data and facts about Josh Kroenke’s ability to wheel and deal. Not sure about pulling off the same deals in England and Europe. Several deep pocketed players in different markets jealously protecting their dominance in their respective leagues. But as usual let’s wait and see.
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Just on time, Deloitte Money League 2017:
Man Utd (£577m)
Barcelona (£520m)
R Madrid (£520m)
Bayern (£496m)
Man City (£440m)
PSG (£437m)
Arsenal (£393m)
Good luck Josh. Papa believes each entity must pay their own way.
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Great piece shotts.
Hopefully i am wrong in presuming that Arsenal will fail to finish in top 4 this year but if it happens i fear we can keep Sanchez and Ozil and our unblemihed record for 20 years for finising an average 3rd position gets in jeopardy for longer periods.
I await ur comments.
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This is a new twist;
https://www.theguardian.com/football/2017/apr/21/dortmund-bus-attack-suspect-arrested-as-police-allege-share-dealing-plot
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Sadly, I am not too interested in the Kroenke’s Denver Nuggets who play in the North West division of the NBA — because basketball is not my thang.
My interests lie with the New York Giants [or Big Blue to some] in the East Division of the National Football league. I also support the New York Yankees of the Major League Baseball, East division of the American League.
To try and explain the history, structure and rules of the various North American sports would be impossible to do for a football (soccer) blog – so forgive me for passing on that.
however, if anyone is interested in seeing how other sports handle ‘stats’, try the National Basketball Associations data on players and teams. The link is NBA.com/Stats
Now if there was a database like that for Premier League clubs we would be as happy as pigs in a trough. The Nuggets do not feature too much in the tables, it seems. lol
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Sorry – the basket ball link is stats.nba.com
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Bollocks — just go to NBA.com – via google if necessary. lol
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Reshmin ChowdhuryVerified account @ReshminTV 48m48 minutes ago
How utterly shocking & sad to hear that Ugo Ehiogu has died after collapsing yesterday. Just 44 & seemingly in peak health condition. RIP
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Rosicky @Arsenal
Thanks for your kind comments. Admittedly AFC is in an adverse position vs top-4 Currently the club is 6th in the tables on 57 points. United is 4 points ahead. But contrary to the cassandras of doom, AFC still has a chance. In 2006, at this exact same date, AFC was 5th in the table with exactly same number of points, 4 points behind the Spuds. Everybody and his dog in the mainstream media declared that Spurs would keep AFC out of the top-four. History will record that on the last day of the season, the hapless Spuds literally shit the opportunity away. The media likes to pretend that Lasagna Day did not happen. As usual I trust the data not the hysteria of the corrupt, corporate mainstream media.
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is that from Ozil? that’s nice… more a confirmation of the gentlemanly nature of Aw… he even looks like that
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Congratulations Shotta on the big 5 0, like Arsene and ARSENAL your achievements are sometimes taken for granted.
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Shotta, i enjoyed reading this well done
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And to complete a highly satisfactory week Sanchez’s biggest fan acquires a lower tier ticket for the Mancs – Block 5 – standing section only.
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Ummm — with such detailed knowledge — could that ‘biggest fan’ be you, by any chance, Anicoll?? lol
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Tried listening to the AV podcast.
The fellow who alongside his chum the arseblagger started off this season by constantly slagging off one of the best young English footballers, Chamberlian, was completely floundering in his efforts to describe why the Ox had a good game of football. It was unlistenable nonsensical gibberish.
Mean Lean, if you’re reading: Please save your Football podcast. We unfortunately don’t have the time waste on uselessness. If I wanted to listen to someone blagging off their Arsenal I could listen to myself haha! Even worse I could ask the AST grandmasters what they think of Ozil, and how they’d “rescue” the club (sell out to usmanov, take their cut, and run!).
No. Thanks.
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Fraud and “terrorism”?
Blimey!
*stuffs very old, mouldy and crusty football socks into his gob to save you all from any further agony*
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Sanchez was or had been my fantasy signing. Hands off!
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Happy Arshavin Day George.
Hope you’re good Sir.
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Can’t wait for the semi-final this week-end — altho I prefer more than just a semi myself. lol
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Pàblö Jenkins @Pablo_Jenkins 7h7 hours ago
🤔
what other manager is taking his team to Wembley this weekend or is it just a 3 team round robin?
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Steady Henry – only write cheques that you are able to cash*
* for younger readers ‘cheques’ were made of flattened and dried pulped wood products and inscribed by monks, though were notoriously prone to loss in the post. They fell out of use in the 1840s.
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Anicoll,
Just to be clear — I use a pen or biro to write checks — and have never been tempted to ‘experiment’ — I am a good boy!! lol
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Zlatan Ibrahimović’s injury is a double ligament tear. He has done both his ACL and PCL.
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