After losing 5:1 to Bayern the English media have done everything to downplay the quality of Arsenal’s performance up to the 55th minute, ignore the diabolical refereeing (Wenger described it as “unexplainable and scandalous“) and to ratchet up the hysteria for Arsene to be fired prior to renewal or conclusion of his contract.
Leading the charge of the English media is one James Olley, Chief Football Correspondent of the Evening Standard. Before PSG was screwed over by the same UEFA referees he was a man filled with certitude.
“Arsenal were simply not good enough to compete at the highest level and after more than £85million investment in a squad Wenger had huge faith in, it is a damning indictment of the manager and this group of players (My emphasis).”
Despite the Standard being a rag that is given away to evening commuters, Mr Olley’s views are of such import that the Sage of Dublin made him his guest of honor on his Friday podcast to spew his diatribe to his army of followers. So let us dissect Olley’s views.
Did the manager ever have any illusions about the gap in quality between his club and Bayern? Unlike Mr Olley’s bill of indictment, the manager in his pre-game presser did not have great “faith” in his team’s chances:
“Let’s not fool ourselves, we have a one or two-percent chance. But you never know. That’s why we have to focus on the quality of our performance and our commitment.”
But should Gooners or neutrals be expecting superiority over Bayern because Arsenal invested £85million in the squad last summer? Apparently Olley believes after one summer of big spending Arsenal should be beating one of the traditional powerhouses of Europe (2-times Champion League and 3-times European Cup winners) and 26-times Bundesliga winner. If one merely focused on the headline statistic, i.e. market value of both squads; £472.73m for Bayern vs £418.20m for Arsenal (a 13% difference), and this is before making any adjustment to account for the more inflated English market, one would think it is a small gap.
Don’t expect Mr. Olley and his interlocutor, the Sage of Dublin, to dig down into the data as this would expose the shallowness of their claim that Wenger is all to blame for Arsenal’s defeat. Unlike them, we at Positively Arsenal demand data and facts to form a conclusion rather than act hysterically and emotionally.
A deeper analysis of the market value of the players representing both teams show a £20 million edge to Bayern, according to transfermarkt.co.uk Again it must be emphasized that England suffers from significantly greater inflation than Germany where Bayern can pick up a player with more or less the same qualities as one in the English market at a lesser transfer fee. This applies to wages as well.
| ARSENAL | |
| David Ospina | £5.95m |
| Laurent Koscielny | £18.70m |
| Shkodran Mustafi | £25.50m |
| Nacho Monreal | £12.75m |
| Héctor Bellerín | £21.25m |
| Alex Oxlade-Chamberlain | £17.00m |
| Aaron Ramsey | £29.75m |
| Francis Coquelin | £12.75m |
| Granit Xhaka | £29.75m |
| Olivier Giroud | £21.25m |
| Mesut Özil | £42.50m |
| Alexis Sánchez | £55.25m |
| Lucas Pérez | £14.45m |
| Theo Walcott | £18.70m |
| Total Market Value | £325.55m |
V.S.
| BAYERN | |
| Manuel Neuer | £38.25m |
| Mats Hummels | £32.30m |
| Javi Martínez | £21.25m |
| David Alaba | £34.00m |
| Rafinha | £4.25m |
| Thiago Alcántara | £25.50m |
| Joshua Kimmich | £21.25m |
| Arturo Vidal | £31.45m |
| Xabi Alonso | £2.98m |
| Robert Lewandowski | £68.00m |
| Franck Ribéry | £6.80m |
| Renato Sanches | £25.50m |
| Arjen Robben | £8.50m |
| Douglas Costa | £25.50m |
| Total Market Value | £345.53M |
The fact that the financial disparity, when 11 v 11, was only 6% goes somewhere in explaining why Arsenal was competitive for the first 55 minutes. But once the officials decided to tilt the tables in Bayern’s favor by not only granting a penalty for Lewandowski’s appalling imitation of Jamie Vardy’s favorite diving technique, but going further by sending off Arsenal’s best defender (Koscielny), the disparity became a gulf. Approximately £20 million in talent was sent to the showers.
By the way: I am no great fan of transfermarkt’s valuation as a source of unbiased data but it certainly goes somewhere in exposing the shallowness of Olley’s selective use of transfer spending to support a predetermined point of view. As usual, I publish my data so readers can do their own analysis and agree/disagree with my conclusions. If time allowed I would have researched age, years as a professional, performance rating (Squawka), etc., to assess the qualitative difference between both starting XIs.
Back to Mr. Olley’s campaign to discredit Mr. Wenger. One day after Bayern his headline was Arsene Wenger cannot be allowed to decide his destiny – he is holding Arsenal back:
“It is difficult to imagine how bad things have to get at Arsenal before the offer of a two-year contract extension to Arsene Wenger is withdrawn.”
Apparently this provocative headline earned him the invitation to do that Arsenal podcast. Birds of a feather certainly flock together.
It took Sir Chips Keswick, chairman of the board, to put Olley and his cohorts in their place by letting them know who decides Arsene’s and Arsenal’s destiny. He issued an official statement on Thursday, March 9th which stated:
“Arsene has a contract until the end of the season. Any decisions will be made by us mutually and communicated at the right time in the right way.”
None of that dreaded statement of confidence, that platitudinous public relation puffery used by Board chairmen to assuage the media and incredulous fans to insulate themselves from criticism while they plot their options. It was a simple statement of fact; a big, polite “eff off”.
Olley was not dissuaded. During the Lincoln game, like so many in the English media, via a series of tweets, one could sense how desperate he was to have an upset and his ensuing disappointment.
Who had 24 minutes? Xhaka booked for a wild tackle on Matt Rhead. Lincoln may just be sensing an opportunity. 0-0.
— James Olley (@JamesOlley) March 11, 2017
Lincoln fans: “Arsene Wenger, we’re coming for you.”
— James Olley (@JamesOlley) March 11, 2017
Third injury delay here helping Lincoln gather their breath & composure. #afc lacklustre so far.
— James Olley (@JamesOlley) March 11, 2017
HT 1-0 #afc fortunate to be ahead after underwhelming first half. Lincoln, top of the NL, were matching them stride for stride until then.
— James Olley (@JamesOlley) March 11, 2017
#afc 2-0 #Lincoln Giroud converts from close range. Not much of a celebration. Looks like they just want to get out of here.
— James Olley (@JamesOlley) March 11, 2017
#afc 3-0 #Lincoln Waterfall turns Gibbs’ cross into his own net. Game over.
— James Olley (@JamesOlley) March 11, 2017
#afc 4-0 #Lincoln Sanchez curls home a fourth from the edge of the box. Job done.
— James Olley (@JamesOlley) March 11, 2017
FT 5-0 #afc Underwhelming start but in the end a comfortable win which will at least help morale. Lincoln (& their fans) can be proud.
— James Olley (@JamesOlley) March 11, 2017
In his post game report Olley came to the remarkable conclusion that a 5:0 trashing was underwhelming.
“The performance was underwhelming as Lincoln held their own in a fearless and well-organised display but Wenger got the result he desperately needed to avoid further discontent.”
My friends, this is the state of the English mainstream media and its profitable footballing division; a state of rank bias and mendacity. And colluding with them are bloggers and podcasters who pursue ambitions completely divorced from the hard facts and reality that affect the club they claim to support. Rather than trying to educate and inform the fans they are in it to promote hysteria and emotionalism. What a shame!
Positively Arsenal 
Can I get in with the “nightmare for Citeh” – “humiliated by Monaco 🇲🇨” (so far) headline ?
No ?
Fair enough I shall wait for the final whistle
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if city do go out it will be reported as
former Arsenal player Clichy sees his team go out of CL
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So true, anicoll.
I will attempt to take your advice.
Thank you.
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afcstuff @afcstuff 2h2 hours ago
Theo Walcott goal vs. Lincoln on Saturday was the 1,200th home goal during Arsène Wenger’s reign at the club. #afc
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Man City fail to learn from Arsenal’s mistakes against Monaco
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http://dailycannon.com/2017/03/four-times-arsene-wengers-words-twisted-media/
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Do city get the broken cannon treatment…..whatever their equivalent is
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“He went out in his own way”
Hilarious nonsense from Rio
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a fool and his money is so parted
£3000 raised so far on the fundpage for the wenger out flyover at the WBA game
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some concerns at Arsenal over the Willock brothers, Joe and Chris, both have been offered new contracts back in January, but so far neither has signed on the dotted line.
Now reports suggest other clubs have made offers to both lads, with Chris having lots of clubs interested, including Man Utd, Chelsea and Celtic.
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Ed, Hopefully….those so called fans will do what they promise on a daily basis and soon start deserting Arsenal….especially if the man does renew…..may be too much for their fragile sensibilities.
Ok, it must be recognised that promises made by Ivan and others have not been exactly fulfilled, but there is always time.
The fact is, Arsenal do not run themselves on the lines of city Chelsea and Utd. And with TV money, a degree of good coaching, luck and the blessings of the PGMOL for their robust…English tactics….a plucky outsider may from time to time come into the frame and even get the better of Wengers men. But, Wenger has been pretty consistent.
That is not to say there is not room for improvement at Arsenal……this season suggests perhaps a need for changes in tactics and recruitment in the summer to increase chances of success. I am sure Shotta is onto something with the Cazorla conundrum….think we could also do better with improved ball winning. Key players may….or may not need replacing.
But even if you hate Wenger, Stan or the kit man…if these supporters can only see the team in some sort of negative context, maybe time for a different, more exhilaterating hobby…..perhaps blindfolded hopscotch on the M1
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Sniper @clockendsniper 13m13 minutes ago
City didn’t lose over the 2 legs it was 6-6. on the other hand Arsenal did get hammered 3-3 when we went out to Monaco.
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Mandy what promises were made by Gazidis, and what others.
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I think there is a massive amount of fans jumping on the wenger out protests now, purely cos they it actually looks like Wenger might actually leave this summer, and none of them want to miss the chance of being able to claim they were part of the campaign that “drove wenger out”, and they want to be able to show how important they are, how big they are, how despite how useless there are in the rest of their lives, how much power they have in this.
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seemingly our cup semi final is on Saturday 22nd April, 5.30pm kick off
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Calum Chambers – Middlesbrough’s player of the month for January
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how did man city not go through, Pep was up on his feet for both legs, he never stopped shouting instructions and showing pashun, so why did it not work.
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Ed, competing like Bayern for starters, although he did actually say compete financially with BM …..can see why a CEO has to be bullish, but as reported at least, thought it was unrealistic then as I do now….Bayern was an unfortunate example, the most priveledged of clubs in so many ways.
Also..Wenger saying the new stadium would enable us to compete with the best in Europe …..back in the day…..I am sure it will one day, but that day has yet to come.
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Bad couple of weeks for the Cruyffists types……Arsenal and City out……Barca resort to cheating and get serious ref help….and the anti cruyffs/Michels ….Leicester go through
Is the end…..or can the beautiful total football game rise again…without the cheating…against the shit kicking bus parking counter attackers …ok a bit harsh on Bayern I know , they are actually pretty good…
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but there was no promises Mandy, there was no more than aspirations, hopes, plans, when did any one at Arsenal make promises.
You point out that Gazidis never actually said we would compete with Bayern, in anything other than financial stakes, so why then try and infer he did.
we all know the many reasons why the advantage we thought we would get from the stadium move has not been as great as was hoped for. But if we had stayed at Highbury we would have had to have had massive success to be anywhere near the strength we are now in.
Chelsea, Spurs and Liverpool all going for bigger stadiums, even now, so should that not tell us that moving from Highbury to the Emirates was even in hindsight the correct move
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Eddy, now thats a post.
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well mandy as for the question, will the cryuff style football rise again, well not if the pundits, media and co have their way, the response to Pep’s city going out of the cl is for most of them to suggest that Pep needs to learn from Jose and build a dour, negative, defensive driven team, and of course spends £200M – £300M, each summer till he gets it right.
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ah george, give a 100 monkeys typewriters and all that
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James Harden @rackedupshawwty 3h3 hours ago
Wenger is allegedly seen as an outdated coach. Guardiola the revolutionary is using Wenger’s shit fullbacks from 10 years ago lmao
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I’m sitting on the fence.
Bluntness can, and does, prove a point but does it necessarily convince, and more importantly convert those who read and have a view that they hold that may be diametrically different to ours? I’m a big data fan, it proves me wrong every day and it keeps us honest. But as a minority that accepts that fallibility and subjectivity do not give me any foundation or reason to state an opinion I still allow others sentiments and writings because without their contributions and views I become one-dimensional, we are in the singular bubble that insulates us from accepting others opinions.
Shotta your efforts and recent posts are to be acknowledged, you’ve done an amazing amount of work in your research for those, and provided in most instances some compelling data and conclusions. That is admirable and way way beyond any ability of mine. Your last two posts have been well composed, articulate and provided some worthy reading.
Yes the data is good, but it is, and I emphasise, not infallible. Arene love the data but it’s not perfect.
If you have an opinion, you have a stance you will always have some level of criticism levelled at you, yes we miss Carzola, most of our midfielders this season have been injured, the ability to build combinations seriously hindered. The evidence both subjective and objective are apparent.
Simply put get angry at the true fuck-tards but please understand here we want the same things for The Arsenal and the manager and the players.
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Team News – Elneny is back in the squad, Oxlade-Chamberlain has a fitness test today, everyone bar Santi should be available.
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Wenger says he will not talk about the protests again, says he has talked enough about it and will not talk anymore about it.
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Wenger “success is to take the maximum out of the team, what that is we will see”
“total fabrication that Boro Primorac is leaving” – tells the journos that they should check their facts before taking and repeating any story that appears anywhere.
“of course its normal if the players have bonus payments in their contracts, that they do not get paid them if they do not achieve the bonus”
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Gibbs a doubt too.
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man city’s cl exit point, but no media frenzy as its not Arsenal
11/12 – Group stage
12/13 – Group stage
13/14 – R16
14/15 – R16
15/16 – Semi Final
16/17 – R16
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Eds the Tottenham stadium has doubled upon original estimates (20% Brexit tax as they were already on site), then there is the Gazprom property development project in Kensington will inflates all costs wherever possible *coughs*
it’s as AW has recently said: if AFC had delayed then move in real or relative terms it would have ended up costing a lot more
Probably meaning no arshavin like treats for the puritanical football lovers out there over the years who also “hate” Alexis – (always a sure sign of the mark of the beast if you ask me, we don’t allow for alternative opinions here thank you very much, nope!)
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Shall we have a whip round?
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What are we to make of such talk of comparitive sums from the football manager who is is famous for timing training sessions to the physio’s stopwatch?
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All this talk of juicy data inspired me to look up some cricket averages.
There should probably be a marker to identify batting averages from the pre-helmet wearing era, having only ever faced a true fast bowler in nets with the help of diapers I can happily declare that any batting average over 0.0 would impress me.
Cricket stats have proven to be remarkably useful and popular for cricket fans. These past fifty odd years.
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< goes without saying that anyone keeping wicket at that level has some serious skill! And bravery.
Alas comparative stats for wicketkeepers have never been as well presented/popular as the bowling and batting info. But that was in yesteryear, today with these newfangled computers I'm sure there's a measure used by a few coaches.
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HenryB: “Bored and sickened, yet firmly stuck between the relentless sharp speared attacks on AW, and the club on the one side, and the puritanical, quasi-religious, supposedly data driven, non-questioning obeisance of the distaff side.”
Apparently you are so bored you enjoy playing this game of being an in-betweener. I have never read so much high flown nonsense in my life. When did objective data become puritanical, quasi-religious, non-questioning and obeisance? It is like the high priests and ciphers of the Dark Ages accusing the forces of the Enlightenment of being puritannical and over-religious because they used data and science to counter the universal ignorance and mysticism. It is the equivalent of today’s football fan saying don’t bore me with numbers; I only care about the results. Meanwhile all top-level football teams are becoming more data-driven. Go figure.
The reason I took the self-appointed role of doing a data-driven blog was to help make us different from other blogs where there is endless, mindless “quasi-religious” debates between highly the opinionated. Like ass-holes; everyone has an opinion. I am having fun doing the research and publish the results along with my findings. If you have a problem with that be a man and state your objections rather than trolling with some illogical, fatuous comment.
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finsbury
Even cricket is relatively new to stats, as opposed to record keeping. There’s a difference, though only in depth and use in analysis. A good batting average indicates a good batsman, but with variations in conditions, size of the ground, strength of opposition etc, its not a great measure. The true stat keeping sport is baseball. They measure literally everything.
Games like football, which have more events to be recorded in a flowing game than easily broken down events, need to look more at something like basketball, where in the past 5-10 years they have evolved (and publicised) new stats to better analyse team and player performances.
However, I am sure football stats are more refined for the professionals (especially Arsenal) than what is exposed to the public. Which is another sign of how the media no longer seeks to inform us, but only appeal to the lowest intellect.
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Poor Boro Primorac must be feeling bemused by all this. He’s spent 20 years with hardly anyone knowing his name, and never being part of the media circus since his days at Valenciennes where he proved himself a man of integrity (no wonder he and Wenger get along) But with the media crazy to find any Arsenal story that they can connect to Wenger and his future, he becomes the hot topic of the day.
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“I have never read so much high flown nonsense in my life.”
Clearly I am slacking !
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Thanks Shard.
I do find the cricket averages to be a good guide. It’s possible to think that for example that Flintoff’s stats don’t relflect his talent, but then again they do reflect his struggles with injuries etc.
Some of the stat monkeys working for AFC in the US (not the warehouse / workhouse in SE Asia…?) must be big basketball fans.
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Smallo42: “Im sitting on the fence”
No problems with that if you are waiting to be convinced. I welcome questions concerning the veracity of the data and my conclusions but I will strenuously debate those who attack the writer because the data does not comport with certain a priori views and convictions. Based on my lifelong (which btw is quite long) experience, the data will triumph over emotion.
If you have been tracking my blogs, I have learnt from the stock market that emotion is a contrarian indicator, The majority of investors are losers because they follow emotion rather than hard historical data. I have absolutely no problem being unpopular in the short run and from being blunt.
I take heart from the fact that eventually my findings are found to be absolutely correct as evident in acknowledgement by the mainstream media and other blogs that AFC this year, as it did last season,is suffering bigly from the loss of its 2nd best midfielder and there is nobody in the existing corps of midfielders to mitigate this loss. Keep watching this space as I have some more startling data to share.
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*sobs emotionally* *shakes pom poms* *cheers halfheartedly* Go Aaron! *throws self off cliff because she’s a loser*
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Sorry, sorry…just trying to add a little levity. Things are so serious these days.
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bama
When AW asked the board to sign Arshavin I do notbelieve (as in an opinion) that it was a result of a negative assesment of the F Word (pre “bruised bone” and semi-retirement) or of Van Persie (or of his fitness record either).
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I dont think i’ve read anything from Shotts that is so serious, but then again i’m not the brightest.
By my understanding this study reads like an exploration of an older conversation, that AWs AFC teams play with “the three amigos” in the attacking areas.
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Fins, I was actually referring to the overall mood in general, not the topic of the blog. It feels a bit down, that’s all.
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Ed, Another Willock brother is already at manure and they nearly signed Joe and Chris before we managed to get their signatures. I think that enough big clubs were in for them that the parents could see exactly what was dangled I front of them before deciding where they went. It is therefore no surprise they are stalling again. They are undoubtedly big talents but I would question their loyalty at any stage of their career.
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Boo bama
Go back to watching Nick Saban and ‘Murican football. (Only cos I have an affiliation to the Georgia Bulldogs)
I am unable to ‘like’ comments, but I thought you were funny. So take a like. (not a hike)
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finsbury
Agreed that cricket averages are a good guide. Just think they don’t offer much analysis in themselves. But the use of statistics in broadcasts is definitely a growing trend. Sometimes they just throw numbers out which really don’t mean much, but it can only be a good thing if it continues to evolve. Unlike football which is probably the slowest sport to evolve.
On Willock. Have you seen that this is being depicted as a sign that ‘Wenger’s ruining Arsenal’? It shouldn’t surprise me, because what isn’t to some people. Monaco beat City yesterday, and that shows Wenger is past it. That’s like Stewart Robson level commentary.
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