So Arsenal crashed to a 3-1 defeat to Liverpool over the weekend. Despite my colleague Andrew Nicoll’s optimism that eventually “Arsenal: We can work it out” I detect an air of over-reaction from among even the most resilient. One of my loyal Twitter followers made the following tweet:
“A strong action is needed or all what we have built in the last 12 yrs will collapse. We will have to start from the bottom.”
While the sentiment is from a good place, in my opinion it is insufficiently rooted in reality. If we base our opinions on the unbiased data, Saturday’s result was not really surprising.
In my last blog “Who Will Replace Santi Cazorla”, I shared with readers the results of my analysis of the Squawka data on Arsenal midfielders demonstrating, in no uncertain manner, that apart from Ozil and Cazorla there is a serious deficit in quality midfielders at the club. This I argued explains the club’s significant decline in Points Per Game (ppg) since Santi suffered his long term injury last October. Why then would any rational, objective football fan be overly surprised we failed to win the game. We came close to drawing with the ultimate goal bound shot by Alexis, but it was blocked and in the subsequent counter-attack, with Origi beating the offside trap by a hair’s breath and setting up Wijnaldum, the result was put beyond doubt.
Unlike the Robbie Earle’s and Kyle Martino’s of this world who, on my tv feed, engaged in the most hysterical anti-Wenger diatribes, blaming the manager’s failure to start Alexis Sanchez as cause for the defeat, as serious supporters of the football club we need to look beyond the headlines. Fortunately for us whoscored.com maintains a database of some key performance indicators for all clubs in the Premier League.
| Indicators | Arsenal’s Season Avg |
Arsenal vs LFC | Difference |
| Goals | 2.2 | 0 | -2.2 |
| Shots | 15 | 7 | -8 |
| Shots on target | 5 | 3 | -2 |
| Pass Success | 79% | 77% | -2% |
| Aerial Duel Success | 56% | 58% | 2% |
| Dribbles won | 18 | 8 | -10 |
| Tackles | 19 | 16 | -3 |
| Possession | 56% | 48% | -8% |
| Points | 2.1 | 0% | -2 |
In all statistical categories, except Aerial Duel Successs, Arsenal was substantially below its season average. Key failures were in making Dribbles, maintaining Possession and taking Shots at goal. Pundits engaged in sensationalism, such as Earle and Martino, “act” totally innocent of the fact there were two other key players missing from Arsenal who are vital to the overall success of the team especially in the key data categories.
As great an individual footballer as Alexis Sanchez has been at Arsenal this year, in scoring goals and making chances, he has way inferior statistics to Ozil and Cazorla in Passing Accuracy and retaining Possession. These were the key areas where AFC lost the game on Saturday. Clearly, when brought on in the second half, he added dynamism to the team assisting in one goal but ultimately it was not enough to swing the game decisively in Arsenal’s favor.
| Squawka Data | Ozil | Cazorla | Sanchez |
| Avg Performance Score | 27 | 25 | 41 |
| Total Appearances | 22 | 8 | 26 |
| Shot Accuracy | 50% | 67% | 59% |
| Avg. Pass Accuracy | 87% | 91% | 73% |
| Avg. Pass Length | 15m | 16m | 16m |
| Avg. Chances Created | 2.68 | 1.25 | 2.5 |
| Avg. Goals Scored | 0.23 | 0.25 | 0.65 |
| Avg. Defensive Actions | 1 | 2 | 1 |
| Avg. Duels Won | 53% | 28% | 52% |
Repeatedly I have had sceptics pushing back at the data, not acknowledging that by failing to identify the objective reasons for Arsenal’s current struggles they will never find the correct solutions. In fact those sceptics are bound to become even more despondent if Arsenal fails to adopt the conventional option of changing the manager. Many I have seen eventually join the bitter anti-Wenger mob because they fail to grasp real solutions and and thus fall for the usual bread and circus most other clubs provide their fans.
Here is a “shocking” revelation. My analysis of the data reveals Arsenal is still some distance from becoming a dominant team in the ever increasing arm race among our top-6 rivals. The moneyed clubs are spending big not only on top-top players but experienced, talented managers. The ignorant muck and dreck of English football management have been replaced by the likes of Guardiola, Mourinho, Klopp and Conte, all of whom have won top titles in big domestic European leagues and if they have not won the Champions League have recently gone to the finals. Pochettino is the exception in terms of titles, but being a disciple of Bielsa, an innovative coaching legend, has transformed Spurs into a serious outfit who press relentlessly.
While Wenger was the innovator in bringing possession football to England, most of his competitors are building teams aimed at countering Arsenal’s strategy. Pressing and counter-pressing is the main strategy designed to disrupt and regain possession, quickly break on Arsenal’s high line, create overloads and create good scoring chances. As a result, Arsenal’s results this season, except for the win over Chelsea achieved with Santi Cazorla, have been pathetic.
| Indicators | With | Without | Difference |
| Shots | 14 | 10 | -4 |
| Shots on target | 5 | 4 | -1.5 |
| Pass Success | 83% | 78% | -5% |
| Aerial Duel Success | 38% | 47% | 9% |
| Dribbles won | 11 | 11 | 0 |
| Tackles | 18 | 22 | 4 |
| Possession | 49% | 51% | 2% |
| Goals | 3 | 1.3 | -1.7 |
| Points | 3 | 0.3 | -2.7 |
While the data set is very limited, only one game with Santi, based on six other matches between the top-6 the reality is very stark. Creating only 10 shots per game and 4 on target is not going to win many games against the top clubs in the PL. A measly average possession of 51% and a 78% passing rate is not going to cut the mustard for a possession oriented team. Scoring barely over one goal in these games is not a margin that guarantees a high probability of winning. Absent a player of Santi’s quality over a prolonged period, with the next best midfielder being a 21 year-old with less than two years experience in the league, is a recipe for repeated frustration.
It is arguable that the current squad may be good enough to consistently beat the other 14 teams in the league, but given the vagaries of form and the impact of injuries/fatigue while competing in four competitions annually, it is a virtual miracle Arsene Wenger has steered Arsenal to an average of just under 4th in the league over the last 10 years. The Board, quite rightly, made a big song and dance in the notes to the most recent 6-month financial statement of spending over £90 million on new talent while the wage bill increased by over £40 million.
However the data is speaking loudly; the club is excessively reliant on two top-top quality midfielders and it isn’t working. Seems to me the Board has no choice but to push the boat way out this Summer to land the right player who can make a difference in central midfield. Failing this I could see Arsene Wenger’s legacy being trashed by the usual suspects at the approaching twilight of his career.
Positively Arsenal 
That is really, really good. It was a pleasure to read something based on fact, cogent, and with a conclusion that did not involve anyone walking the plank. Thank you.
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A reasonable voice amongst the chaotic Arsenal blogosphere
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Good article Shotta. Thanks. Do you have the relevent data for Young Alex and Theo? Would love to see those.
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Good read. Do you think there may also be grounds for a change in coaching philosophy? Not necessecarily manager, but new ways of playing that may be more effective to this league, and for the players we are going to realistically be able to get hold of…..and maybe more importantly, keep? It seems that lesser teams, with lesser resources are catching up, and from time to time, overtaking.
Agree, they need to push the boat out on a new player….I am sure they have tried such things in the past, but they don’t always get them.
Perhaps a more robust, if less entertaining way of playing…..or at least as a plan B…..seems to work for other teams, perhaps tweaking is more appropriate than the mass change and resulting instability that may be the alternative.
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Mandy:
Has Barca changed its way of playing?
Isn’t Bayern playing more like Barca and less like the old Bayern?
How would you characterize PSG? Aren’t they more midfield oriented after jettisoning Ibra?
I welcome the thoughts of you and others.
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Excellent Shotta, well done.
Painful reading really.
We all know we are still capable of playing outstanding football but consistency alludes us, as it alludes most teams. There can only ever be one League Champion and every season, every team starts from zero. The longer you are in the sights of the snipers the more shots you will take. For me Mourinho’s 6th Placed Wonders are the biggest failure this season on account of the near-countless millions spent for such little return.
But it’s Arsenal and Arsene in particular getting the benefit of the forensics from the usual suspects. Sure, the mixture isn’t quite working for us this season – whether it’s the ingredients or the consistency is up for debate. And precisely the same charge can be levelled at Liverpool, despite Saturday’s win.
The media-driven clamour for Arsenal blood simply is not there for United or Liverpool. It’s tedious and it’s tiresome and whilst fans have every ‘right’ to comment, the lack of balance and proportionality is glaringly obvious. The media not only love it but take a real joy in amplifying it.
Whether Arsene can really be bothered with it is the only thing that matters now.
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I don’t know if there is requirement for the coaching philosophy to change Mandy in as much as I d say thee has been a substantial change in the past couple of seasons. WE went through a phase of only recruiting, or bringing through the ranks, physically small midfield players. while they had great talent they did not cope with the physical battles in midfield that have to be fought and won to give themselves a platform for their great skills to flourish. In bringing in Elneny, Xhaka and in promoting Le Coq to be more or less a guaranteed starter in big games that weakness has been addressed. These are large, experienced midfield players. They bring a touch of steel.
As we address one problem however, a second rears up, and has never really been satisfactorily addressed.
What unfortunately Arsene, the coaches, the fitness and medical teams do not seem any nearer solving are the lamentable problems of injury and lack of fitness that has plagued out midfielders since out move to the Ems.
Some players such as Diaby and Rosicky barely ever played season after season, Ramsey has been no more than an occasional participant on fitness grounds, Theo is missing with one vague injury after another, the Ox is another whose career has been a constant stop start of lengthy injury breaks, Jack ? Don’t ask about Jack and injury – just don’t. In his final 18 months with the club even Arteta did not kick a ball. We sign and urgent midfield reinforcement – Kim Kalstromm who was – wait for it – injured for two months after signing – remember that ? And now Santi for the second season running won’t manage 20 games. Add in recent injuries to Elneny and Granit’s capacity to pick up red cards and our footballing engine room is a fucking desert.
No team in the WORLD would have the capacity to cope with that incessant absence of players, that constant need to make do and mend with what is to hand.
So yep Shotta – tell Stan to get his hand in his pocket and buy big, but do tell him to buy a player with a performance guarantee.
And that is not a coaching philosophy, that is a manpower strategy. And yes – that probably needs to change to break out of the “nearly” PL/CL challengers cycle , and probably change in a brutal way not many of us would like.
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Thank you.
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That’s alright !
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Hi anicoll,
Your 11:35 is spot on. From my perspective the recruitment criteria needs to go further.
I suspect that whether Arsene decides to move on at the end of the season, or in two years time, another manager next season or in 2019 will bring in his own vision of the players needed.
In the meantime, some of our current players between now and 2019, will be retired or close to retirement, Santi, Cech, Nacho, Mert, Kosser — and with the uncertainty over contract extensions, Alexis, Mesut, Oxo and Gibbs may have moved on.
Potentially big player changes in the offing or over the next couple of seasons, or so.
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Interesting. Barca don’t change , but they are a bit of a unique team in a fairly unique league, unlimited resources these days, the very best of players, and first in the queue for new ones, a league that to an extent indulges, even celebrates their qualities.
I believe things are different. Wenger has tried to bring a bit of Michels into a league of shitkickers, indulged by English refereeing standards, he and his team get a raw deal from the media (not saying Barca and Bayern don’t at times).. And Arsenal are not at the front of the queue for the top players, if reports today are accurate, we may have problems keeping one or two.
Take the point we have added more steel, think Granit will be superb once he adapts to our game…and the refs….he will be fine once he realises there is one rule for him, another for Wanyama. Coq and Elneny have certainly had their moments, but it seems only in certain combinations of players. Our players do not look physically, or for that matter, mentally weak to me. but was referring more to mixing up of tactics and different patterns of play.
There are some, me included who believe that the loss of Caz has been….well, pretty catastrophic all round. And yes, the replacements if you can replace such a player have been injured or are on loan. Just don’t think not being able to deal with this is the greatest of scenarios at the end of the contract of our greatest ever manager.
Can only admire the way Wenger, in general seems to want to play…..but you need bloody good and self confident players to do that , especially in this league. When it works, it’s beautiful, when it doesn’t, we struggle against lesser teams. others seem more adept at dealing with said teams
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Can only agree on the injury/fitness issues btw…..we really suffer with key players
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Granite
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It was funny reading your blog.
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Having said that I would like to know, do you think Arsene will sign again ?
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I hope so.
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Whoever has the key needs to lock the door pronto.
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Oh I dont know – John Boy is mellowing
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.
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Or should it be “NightJohnBoy” ?
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. – Coo – he has turned into a spot ?
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Do you think Wengker is gonna sign again?
If not I may stop supporting Arsenal ! I really might
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Correction Mandy: We regularly beat the less than top-6 teams, injuries or no injuries, with or without Santi. I recall we have a very healthy ppg vs the Rest of the League.
Do supporters believe coaching and tactics can overcome superior talent in the Premier League? Can we expect to dominate possession in midfield when Alex Iwobi is our 3rd best midfielder after Ozil and Santi?
There is a well known quote by the great Brian Clough:
“Players lose you games not tactics. There’s so much crap talked about tactics by people who can’t win at dominoes”
Harsh but true.
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Tell us Arsene – where will your statue finally go in 2019 or when you finally leave – can I send a £ please ?
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There is a well known quote by the great Brian Clough:
“Players lose you games not tactics. There’s so much crap talked about tactics by people who can’t win at dominoes”
Harsh but true.
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John Harvey,
Cannot quite understand the contrast between your 9:59 and your 12:08.
Are you being fickle? And the five comments you mention? Yours?
And your “a**s” — @12;03 = ‘arss’ – no that doesn’t work.
Umm — can’t believe you are American but “a**s” = ass — nope that does not work either.
Oh well, sod off then.
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We did something very unusual by overachieving consistently and never underachieving on our resources at the top end of a league for a very long period.
That we did so while playing attractive, attacking, possession-based football made it even more unusual. In a one off game and over the course of a season or seasons, upsetting odds, overachieving or triumphing over much richer rivals is invariably done through aggressive, intense football, with an emphasis on defending in numbers and counter-attacking efficiently.
There are very few exceptions to that. Dortmund perhaps, and on a lesser scale Swansea while they stuck to their philosophy and reaped huge rewards.
In fact there are very few teams anywhere who aren’t primarily defend and counter teams at heart. Barca, Bayern, Man City, maybe Real and PSG. Financial behemoths, basically, or at least dominant within their own league (Celtic, I’m guessing, take the game to bus parking opposition most weeks).
Even some of the financial behemoths or dominant teams in their country are defence and counter oriented- Juve, Chelsea, Utd.
Anyway, my hope was that with our improved finances, despite being clearly behind that small group of cash giants, some of whom held a large advantage over us in quality at that point (Barca, Bayern), our proven manager could continue to overachieve and lead us to some seriously glorious times.
Crudely speaking, the two routes (I saw) to that were to become better at what we were good at- fine, skilful attacking play- or to become stronger and more secure defensively.
Despite many moments of hope and promise, and many good signs, it hasn’t gone as well, overall, as nearly all of us hoped and dreamed (but how sensible are those things?), if not expected.
But still, does that mean it has gone awfully, spectacularly badly, ‘no worst there is none’ terribly? Nope, of course not. Arguably, though, we have stopped overachieving and might be underachieving slightly.
So, what happens now? I’m no longer sure, or deluded into feeling sure, about anything.
My opinion is that, unfortunately, it will be tough for Wenger to stay unless we find a strong finish and that, alas, I cannot see a strong finish.
Maybe I’ll be in for a wonderful surprise, or maybe, in the event of a poor finish, meaning no CL and the painful additional blow of no St Totteringham day, Wenger and the board will ignore the unprecedented furore, howls of woe and cries of fury and he’ll stay. Maybe. But I honestly can’t envisage that.
Crucially, if he leaves the next man will either have to try continue with his ways, as a team of rare positivity (and honesty) looking to defeat wealthier rivals in an unusual fashion, or move towards being like virtually every other team- with increased aggression, extra cynicism, much more focus on defence, increased structure and rigidity.
The obvious truth is that this will not be easy and, to say the least, we will be starting well behind the teams who have practiced this, and recruited with this in mind, for years and years.
Wenger or someone else, there still seems, crudely speaking, just those two routes to becoming a better team- better, and that would mean pretty phenomenal, in attack, or quite a lot more secure defensively. Either is, not so strangely, dependant on midfield play.
Anyway, I’d appreciate if anyone has stuck with me while I unburdened the old football soul this Monday, and if you could keep down the hostility if you disagree.
My respect for Wenger will never diminish, but I think we might be in miracle territory for what I have always wanted to happen to happen now.
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Harvey,
That quote from Brian Clough was posited by me 24 hours ago. Not harsh at all – a proper quote from a proper manager — even if slightly weird.
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I knew a John Harvey once – he was a Chelsea fan – he was a very bad person.
He used to take extraordinary quantities of amphetamines. long before it became fashionable, to the extent that he could not stop talking, at all, ever.
And hair trigger temper ! Goodness yes.
I remember John politely asking a chap, a motorcyclist oddly enough, to remove his crash helmet so he could speak to him, face to face.
The motorcyclist ignored him, turned his back in fact and went to make off.
Bad error.
You would never believe how twisty the human neck is – the motorcyclist’s head, still in the hemet, ended up almost 180 degrees from the usual direction.
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Shotta, wise words from the great manager….also, think shanks said something to the effect….football is a simple game over complicated by fools.
But those were an age ago, some,tactics and strategies can be used in all walks of life to make a more level playing field against stronger opponents. It seems to me a lot of modern day footballers need almost micro drilling….prepared for every possible eventuality from a specific opponent, from what some report of training methods of certain teams like Chelsea. Can all players cope with a more free spirited approach against very well drilled opponents on a mission? Look at what Iceland did to England with Roy Hodgsons laissez faire management.
There are a lot of highly drilled teams doing rather well,,Athletico (ok having access to third party owned players may help them on occasion)….Leicester last year, and unfortunately, our nearest and dearest.
Take your point on ppg of lesser teams , but in 2017 and the end of last year, we are struggling, and currently, I would say underachieving. I know this can change in an instant and I hope it does. When wengers game works, it works very well, but is it sufficiently robust to, over a season, cope with setbacks? Injuries? well drilled, often physical , some times, I would say almost cheating teams?
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Wenger denying any bust up over AS
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But is he “happy”
Extraordinary Q&A (banned Smiley)
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but Per saying there is tensions in the squad
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Wenger when asked if Alexis would be at Arsenal next season – “he has 15 months left on his contract, so the decision will be Arsenal’s and only Arsenal’s”
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Ozil out of the game, but should be ok for Saturday.
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Per: “What I want to see tomorrow is that we’re up for a fight”
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anicoll
Now I’m downright intrigued about what you’ve gotten up to in your past, and what experiences you’ve amassed before becoming an Arsenal voice I truly appreciate even if we don’t agree, naturally enough, on everything.
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James OlleyVerified account @JamesOlley 2h2 hours ago
At Colney for AFC training. Ozil just walked out with the rest so should be OK for Bayern. Handshake between Sanchez and Wenger.
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James OlleyVerified account @JamesOlley 47m47 minutes ago
Wenger says Sanchez stories are “completely false – you have to fill the newspapers”. Relationship with him is “honest and normal”.
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Rich at 12-20, That should be a blog.
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I’m gonna be brutally honest right now, since it seems to be the trend: I hate coming here these days. I used to get a mood boost; not so much anymore. I was excited about seeing Aaron return to the squad, but since I now know that he’s the 8th best midfielder we have, I’m clearly deluded for thinking that some fresh legs might help. We’re doomed, Aaron should just go find his level along with Jack, and there’s no hope the manager will stay if we don’t splash the cash. Honestly, it feels like Twitter. There is zero optimism here right now. And that makes me very sad. Because now I have nowhere to go.
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Rich at 12:21 pm
That was one hell of great post! I agree with PG it should be a blog.
Thanks
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Rich -12.21
well it does beg the question as to why we are not more pragmatic in the big away games, we can play counter attacking football with the best of them, but we don’t set up that way. It is why some have a problem with wenger, and see it as him being stubborn. The odd thing is that when we had our title winning sides, we often played counter attacking football. We even won an FA Cup final with a rope a dope defensive game plan. We got to our only CL final on the back of a cautious defense first approach. But now we seem to try and play the same possession style game, home or away, big team or small team. We try to play the same way with our without Santi, or in fact with or without any given player. Yes we see little tactical tweeks, but overall its the same approach. Would our players not be able to play a cautious style in big away games, if not why not, would we not be the better for it, and would we not be better grinding out 0-0 in these big games, than having our confidence shattered by these 3, 4, 5 and 6 Goal thumpings
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Baba Grumpy @BabaGrumpy 5h5 hours ago
Alexis Sanchez – 3 years at Udinese, 3 at Barcelona, Now 3 at Arsenal. Recruiters say past behaviour is good indication for the future
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Baba Grumpy @BabaGrumpy 4h4 hours ago
Ian Wright goofed on the “Wenger is leaving” issue. Now doubling down on the “Sanchez should leave” comments. Some club legend
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Rich
Why u forget we beat peps Bayern 2 nil at Emirates last year.We played a counter attacking defensive game.
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I think the optimism is bubbling along nicely K – we have had a few setbacks recently and I appreciate the issue of Aaron’s return and that despite his talent he has not featured may cause you particularly exquisite pain.
Nevertheless we have a fine squad of footballers, play very good football in the right way, we have a Cup quarter final due on Saturday which, barring a monster banana skin, should lead us on to a Cup semi final at Wembley and a good chance of a further swing at the FA Cup in May.
The PL I admit, and I think everyone else does, is beyond us, and may in fact be beyond everyone, bar Chelsea. There is however St Totteringham’s Day to consider, and work toward. As has often happened if we keep after our prey we shall reel them in. Some good games coming up too – Citeh and the red Mancs at home – the Totties away.
I would say the Cup ( see that deft touch) remains well above half full.
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I have a diploma in bullshit rich – trust me
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Mertesacker: “I think we saw on a lot of occasions we were absolutely not ready for the fight. We haven’t competed a lot in recent games.”
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