As Santi Cazorla this past week, once again, went under the knife to fix a relapse in his achilles injury, any remaining Gooner hopes of a late season title challenge were crushed. In contrast, Chelsea’s fortunes soared on Saturday with another seemingly routine win over Swansea. To be honest they could have been on the backfoot if Swansea was awarded a fairly obvious penalty midway the second-half but the PGMO decided otherwise. It is now fair to say that, barring a Liverpool-like implosion, they will win the 2016-17 premier league (PL) title. Despite my red tinted lens, that possibility does not even register on my telescope. As matters now stand City, Spurs, Arsenal, United and Liverpool are in a desperate battle for the other top-3 positions which will grant entry into the Champion’s League.
Despite my early optimism, especially after the club overcame a bad start and went on a 14 game unbeaten streak between August 20th and December 10th last year, amassing 33 points or a 2.35 points per game (ppg), I was less confident after Santi Cazorla pulled up lame at Ludogorets in the Champions League fixture and was ruled out of the following PL game with Middlesborough on October 22nd. Initially the club seem to manage well without the little midfield maestro, scraping draws with United and Spurs and banging West Ham 5-1 last November, but that was only flattering to deceive. The unbiased data always speaks the cold, hard truth. Seventeen (17) games in the PL without Santi and the ppg has fallen to 1.76, a mind-blowing 25% drop. Most striking, Arsenal was 1st place in the league Arsenal on October 20th, and today the club is battling for 4th with City.
In spite of the power and clarity of the data, we continue to have fake news or better yet fake analysis by pseudo experts in the mainstream media, blogs and podcasts pouring blame on Arsene Wenger for the recent run of bad results especially the heavy defeat to Bayern Munich in the Champions League. But at last there are a few in the mainstream media who now acknowledge what I have blogged on at least three (3) occasions over the past year, Santi Cazorla is the key to Arsenal and he is virtually irreplaceable.
First, on October 24, 2016 the Telegraph’s Charlie Eccleshare did a piece which had as its headline:
“Arsenal’s draw with Middlesbrough underlines why Santi Cazorla is the player Arsene Wenger cannot do without”
Later on December 2nd a follow-up by Eccleshare was published with another bold header:
“Santi Cazorla injury will derail Arsenal’s season – unless Arsene Wenger does something drastic”
Well the data is in and Arsenal’s season is badly off the tracks. Even though the Guardian’s Barney Ronay flowery language is often aimed at the literary cognoscenti, he was straight to the point:
“With Cazorla in the centre Arsenal are a different team. Mainly they’re a better one, his presence above all defensive and stabilising, a leadership role. This season Cazorla has started 10 games, with eight wins and two draws. Arsenal have kept five clean sheets with him in the team, compared with four in 20 League and Champions League games since his injury. In the last five years Arsenal have beaten Chelsea, Manchester United, Manchester City, Liverpool and Tottenham just once without their most resilient ball-hog in the team.”
It is noteworthy that Ronay identifies and recognizes something that many of us at Positively Arsenal, especially our friend When We Were Boring, have emphasized. Santi is the technical leader of this team. None of this abstract, data-free nonsense that the current team and players lack guts, which is simply the reactionary shibboleths of a past era when apparently Nobby Styles was the proof of leadership by emerging from games bloodied and toothless as if he had been in a 15 round boxing brawl (Readers who don’t know of Nobby, should Bing him up).
For those who so easily forget what Santi brings to the table in big games like Bayern, turn your minds to three-four months ago in Arsenal’s champion’s league game away to PSG. In the words of Ronay:
“Just as it is unlikely any English team will see a better all-round performance this season than Cazorla’s outflanking of that powerful Paris Saint-Germain midfield in the second half in Paris last September, scuttling about, holding the ball in tiny spaces and driving the game back Arsenal’s way like a plucky little snowspeeder patiently winding its guy rope around the legs of the imperial walkers.”
I quote these well published journos simply to affirm what I seem unable to sufficiently convey via the data; Santi is the key to the Arsenal way of playing and, at least for now, is irreplaceable. To the contrary, some of my friends at PA urge and I paraphrase: “Stop belabouring the point, Shotta, we have other midfielders who can compensate.”
Can they truly compensate? Recently I did an analysis of the season-to-date Squawka PL performance data of all the Arsenal midfielders and it was a revelation. To make it easy for mobile devices I will break the table in 2 parts.
Top-4 Avg Performance Score
| Ozil | Cazorla | Iwobi | The Ox | |
| Avg Performance Score | 27 | 25 | 22 | 18 |
| Total Appearances | 22 | 8 | 21 | 21 |
| Shot Accuracy | 50% | 67% | 47% | 43% |
| Avg. Pass Accuracy | 87% | 91% | 87% | 82% |
| Avg. Pass Length | 15m | 16m | 14m | 17m |
| Avg. Chances Created | 2.68 | 1.25 | 1.14 | 1.10 |
| Avg. Goals Scored | 0.23 | 0.25 | 0.14 | 0.10 |
| Avg. Defensive Actions | 1 | 2 | 1 | 1 |
| Avg. Duels Won | 53% | 28% | 55% | 53% |
Bottom-4 Avg Performance Score
| Xhaka | Elneny | Coquelin | Ramsey | |
| Avg Performance Score | 18 | 16 | 16 | 11 |
| Total Appearances | 19 | 12 | 21 | 12 |
| Shot Accuracy | 23% | 0% | 14% | 29% |
| Avg. Pass Accuracy | 89% | 92% | 88% | 90% |
| Avg. Pass Length | 18m | 16m | 15m | 16m |
| Avg. Chances Created | 0.84 | 0.25 | 0.62 | 0.83 |
| Avg. Goals Scored | 0.05 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Avg. Defensive Actions | 3 | 1 | 4 | 1 |
| Avg. Duels Won | 45% | 42% | 48% | 52% |
I have already made the point in my last blog that Cazorla is our second best midfielder next to Ozil and is inferior in only one offensive statistic i.e. Chances Created, making him a huge loss as an attacker. In his absence the team is forced to rely Iwobi and Oxlade-Chamberlain as Attacking Midfielders. While Arsenal fans should be extremely happy with the development of both players, the stubborn fact is that at 87% and 82% Pass Completion respectively as well as inferior chance creation stats it is hardly likely they will trouble defenders in much the same way as Santi. Nevertheless they are young players with a high upside and in Arsene they have a manager who is infinitely capable of bringing the best out of them. The bottom-line is neither is really suited for a deep lying role thus the manager is relying on Xhaka, Elneny and Coquelin and Ramsey to perform this function. The fact that they as well as The Ox have sub 20 average performance scores is a telling statistic. Even more troubling is the most experienced in the lot is Aaron Ramsey, but he has had an injury plagued season and his average performance score is a measly 11. The data is compelling; Arsene may have 6 injury-free midfielders but he is starved of another quality attacking central midfielder. (Note to StatDNA and the scouts in planning for the 2017 transfer season.)
I am no tactical expert and I have no advice to give the manager. He, I am sure, is more aware than all of us of the scale of the challenge he faces and the experience to prevail. For example on February 7, 2015, Arsenal lost to Tottenham 2-1 and fell to 6th place in the league with only 42 points. In the next 14 matches the club went on a run of 10 wins, three draws and one loss to finish 3rd at 75 points. Switching Santi to that deeper role, in place of the injured Mikel Arteta, was the key to that revival. Surely Arsene will find another internal solution.
Positively Arsenal 
Quite a conundrum. As ever, I am with you on pretty much everything you write about this magnificent player.
I suppose one obvious replacement would be Jack…..and it now looks like having no bring back clause was a mistake, assuming such a clause could have been put in place
It is a real shame, this team often seems to experience a very long term injury to a key player. UA have carried out some research, which suggests, contrary to popular opinion, Arsenal don’t get more injuries than other teams. I don’t want to dispute this, but would find it hard to believe we don’t get more injuries than ….say…Chelsea. But it looks to me that where we suffer is from injuries to key players. Wenger and his staff are blamed by some….including Gobby Dutch physics for this, but a starting point for these injuries must surely be the regular unpunished horror tackles on our players, Sutton would be a case in point, then the….unpunished, and widely praised assault on Bellerin by alonso……in their world, it is ok to lead into a jump .by the elbow. This refereeing and its end results I fear , are here to stay as long as Wenger is in post, he plays the game the way he does, and the media narrative is that Arsenal are soft and do t like it up em.
But, it wasn’t an over physical premier league team that injured cazorla.
How do you replace him? This season, they cannot, and that is a serious worry, amongst other things, a poor finish would make it very difficult in the eyes of the masses, if not the enlightened for Wenger to extend his contract. Long term, just hope Caz recovers , is back next season, but they will need backup…..perhaps Jack, Ox…..or through recruitment. But our English players are going to have to seriously step up to fill his shoes.
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Read with desperation.Completely agree without Santi Cazorla the team lacks the cutting edge.Santi has been vital to our success,so much talented and now with loads of experience wonder who can fill his boots when he retires.
I doubt Ozil can work well in the deep lying playmaker role. Wenger needs to find a solution for the remainder of the season.
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“Surely Arsene will find another internal solution.”
well santi missed 25 league games last season, 35 in total, and so far this season he has missed 27 games and we don’t look any nearer to an internal solution being found. You mention that Wenger has tried different players in the Santi role, namely Ox and Iwobi, and we have seen this before, not only with Santi but with when other players are out injured. Players who don’t have the skill set of the player missing, and often very different types of players, but the team is set up the same, the same tactics, the same type of game is attempted, I don’t understand why we have not tweaked our formation or tactics more to suit the players we have, than trying to shoehorn players into the team.
Sadly for us with Santi out it has now become an error to not have had a recall option in January in Wilshere’s loan deal, as he is probably the nearest in skill set to Santi, his retention of the ball under pressure, his passing ability and his little dribbles through midfield. We do sometimes have to wonder why the hell do we always seem to take the optimistic view in regards to possible injuries in the squad.
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a question on CL qualification, if Man Utd win the EL and finished outside of top 4, do they get the 4th spot, or do we get five. I know if an English team win the CL and finish outside top 4 they get a 5th CL spot, but I think EL winner would take the 4th spot. Can any one clarify.
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We get 5
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http://dailycannon.com/2017/02/mavididi-stretchered-off-manager-admits-fault/
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When did Jack Wilshire become the “Great English Hope”? Has he been pulling up trees down in Bournemouth? The last time I checked they are flirting with relegation. Frankly, it seems to me Jack has failed to progress for whatever reason and he has found his level down in the sticks.
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a wenger out protest march has been called for by some of the AFTV crew for the second leg v Bayern Munich and already the WOB are making excuses for the likely poor turn out. Anything from its too early in the evening, its a midweek game, game is going to have poor turn out, most WOB will not be attending the game etc etc etc.
I’m loving how so many WOB are showing how hypocritical they are with their lambasting of Leicester City for sacking their manager. But the best one is when WOB say it was the right thing for LCFC to do, as no club should risk the BPL money, but they have been going on for years that Arsenal should not place any stock in getting the CL money.
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shotta I don’t think Jack is the great white hope, just that he is the nearest Arsenal player is skill set to santi and is a much better option in cm than ox or iwobi at this time and under the system we are trying to play.
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an update on a couple of our loan players
Krystian Bielik came on as a sub fro Brum on 55 minutes in their 2-1 win over wolves, with ten men, and according to brum fans, he was outstanding, with his reading of the game the standout feature, 5 interceptions.
Stephy Mavadidi has been going great guns with Charlton, but yesterday in the 90th minute he was stretchered off with what seems to be a bad hamstring injury. The charlton manager took the blame for it, as he said he should have taken the lad off around the hour mark, as this was the first time stephy had played 3 games in a week and that a young players needs to be eased in more to first team action, but that he let the emotion of trying to get something out of the game cloud his decision as Mavadidi was playing so well he left him on against his better judgement.
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Sunday Supplement journos – “the league cup feels that much bigger when jose wins it”.
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At the risk of repeating many others, Jack needs a spell without injury to progress to any degree of consistency.
I strongly suspect a tweak is on its way, Mr Wenger is usually pretty good at such things as the season approaches its end and the stakes are high, especially at the end of his contract. Finish second or third and win the cup, it’s easy for him to stay, limp to fourth… or worse, it will not be, the narrative will then be he is only there on Kroenkes indulgence,,and that is in nobody’s interest. ….but can confidently predict will rise to this occasion, anything else is unthinkable.
I suspect the answer for now will be a combination,of Xhaka, Ramsey and Ox….Elneny looks a bit crocked. Also, if Kos is out for any time, they are going to have to seriously protect the defence
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Excellent piece again Shotta The various Leadership roles in a football team are sometimes are very difficult to describe, a bit like Tectonic plates normally when there is a tsunami or an earthquake, there is graphical evidence to state your case of their relevance. Technical Leadership role can not be bestowed upon you, just by being bought with a high fee. You have to go into work everyday (EVERYDAY) set high standards every drill, every warm up,every session demonstrate the highest or a high skill level, on time for every meeting, that the other players notice (and they will) and look to you as the standard they must achieve.
The team misses you.
I miss you Santi get well soon.
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Xhaka & Ramsey were looking good.
Took a half season of playing whilst fit for Arteta and Ramsey to find their groove as combination/partnership.
With Ramsey’s fitness issues we had Coquelin & Cazorla, a combo what worked with various 10s.
Losing steady Elneny is a blow as he’s proved his value to the squad. Looks like Coquelin and Xhaka will start at Anfield.
Wilshere got his sprint back towards Xmas, but he still just needs to play, to run, a full season of football is what he needs. He’s not as similar to Cazorla as you might think, Cazorla was a different style of player at the younger age, but he can look to Cazorla at AFC and in CM for inspiration for sure.
“Who is Cazorla” should’ve been your title shotts haha!
Great as in great players do not grow on trees
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IMHO, we lost the title last season when we lost him. Same again this season. Wenger has had such rotten luck with injuries, especially Santi’s.
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The scale of our midfield problems this season not really noted or appreciated. Wenger had tried 6 different combinations in that midfield. Our points haul since Santi’s injury is remarkable given the constant changes.
I thought the Xhaka & Ramsey was beginning to look fruitful until the truly awful Jon Moss struck again at our ground. The travesty is, he was allowed to referee a game after the shameful incompetence he displayed by sending off Xhaka first time.
I just wonder if we will Ramsey for a while after the stick he got during and after the Watford game.
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Ryan@RyanTomes 19m19 minutes ago
Henry & Souness gushing over Crouch scoring 100 goals, it only took him almost 20 years to do so.
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Fins: Noticed I kept my promise about the data. Facts can be very inconvenient but we deny them at our peril.
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Nevermind GG how many bungs has the fraud Shawcross picked up in his career? Just kidding! I hope.
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He wouldn’t make the Ghent squad!
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“Found his place in the sticks”? Damn, Shotta…
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Forgive me…The quote was “found his level down in the sticks”. Sorry.
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Shotts,
There are other measures that we can use in addition to the data:
(From 2013, the dark days, when everything had turned to grit and there was no joy for anyone. Apparently. I guess for some it must be Groundhog Day! Or just an easy excuse to supplement some income with some easy clicks, professional trolling in the age of social media politics who could’ve guessed at such a thing?)
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Stoke only rise themselves for Arsenal, and only then in home games, they are totally shit v all the big teams, and never get a thing when away to any of them
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Rocky#7@AFC_Forehead83 28m28 minutes ago
It’s amazing how quickly players get booked against Spurs. But most teams can do anything thy like for 65 mins against AFC
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AFCPressWatch@AFCPressWatch2 Feb 24
Asano on his loan deal: “There is no talk with the Arsenal bosses yet, but I can definitely imagine playing another year here!” #AFC #Japan
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Alabama Gooner: I may have been overly harsh on Jack Wilshire but his Average Performance Score at Bournemouth to date is 19. Based on our experience at Arsenal anything less than 20 is beneath the level needed to step in Santi Cazorla’s shoes and compete at the top-top level. Below is the full data set:
Avg Performance Score 19
Total Appearances 21
Shot Accuracy 53%
Avg. Pass Accuracy 85%
Avg. Pass Length 16m
Avg. Chances Created 1.43
Avg. Goals Scored 0
Avg. Defensive Actions 1
Avg. Duels Won 60%
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Shotts
I’d class this season as a recovery/conditioning season for Wilshere, same as it had been for Rambo following the hacks in that first league game and also following the Euros (Bale has had a drop too)
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Arsenal Wonderkid Kelechi Nwakali Returns To Nigeria
Published: February 26, 2017
Arsenal Wonderkid Kelechi Nwakali Returns To NigeriaNigeria U20s skipper Kelechi Nwakali has returned to his homeland, Owerri, for a short break.
The attacking midfielder has been granted three days leave by MVV Maastricht and is scheduled to return to the Netherlands on Wednesday, March 1 to resume training with the Eerste Divisie outfit.
Speaking to allnigeriasoccer.com on Sunday afternoon, Arsenal loanee Nwakali said : “I came in on Saturday night from the Netherlands, I will return on Wednesday. The holiday is for three days. ”
Kelechi Nwakali’s generosity has been praised by his former club ASJ Academy after he donated six sets of jersey, training kits, 18 pairs of boots, training cones and corners flags shortly after his arrival in Nigeria.
The former Golden Eaglets sensation was in action on Friday night as MVV suffered their biggest loss of the season to
SC Cambuur.
Ifeanyi Emmanuel
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PGMOL clearly have their money on utd winning today
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If people think mustafi can be sloppy in side his pelanty area we’d best not comment on the Utd CBs there.
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Dearest Shotta, of course the data supports you. The data also says I’m significantly overweight, and if you called me fat you wouldn’t be wrong, but my feelings would probably be hurt. My mom used to tell me it’s not so much what you say, but how you say it. (Banned winky thingy)
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i believe if you play in a great team and with great players, your stats are bound to look great. i bet if you play for barca or bayern, you will definately have more touches on the ball and better pass completion than when you play for stoke city. i will rather like to compare jack’s stats with fellow players in struggling clubs than with players at arsenal. i doubt if ozil or even cazorla would have great stats if they play for bounamouth or stoke. remember coq looked world class playing with cazorla just few week of returning from chalton loan spell.
i just hope we dont have agenda against some certain players here! i just hope.
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i think we sometime need to be realistic in our expectation of some players. we cant be too suprised if a player who earns double or tripple the wage of a certain player plays better or at least have a stats that looks better? to whom much is given less shouldnt be expected. rather that put all the blame on the desk of players who earn inferior wages, if we have to result to blame game, we should direct apprioprately.
on here we argue that united, city chelsea have more money or pay more to aquire top of the shelve players, we argue that bayern , madrid barca and psg have bottomless pockets, hence we cant compete favourably, which is understandable. why dont we use same argument when it comes to our players? when it comes to expectation from our players why not use the same yardstick? why?
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Re: Jack. I may not have been diplomatic in my earlier post. That is why I did the research rather than engaging in a pissing contest. At his current levels he is not the solution. Don’t trust me, trust the data.
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Jack is not the answer, no one at the club is the answer when it comes to replacing Santi.
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PG: One of the reasons why I have become increasingly data-centric is to avoid the endless debates based on opinions rather than facts. In my view that helps us to better understand the challenges facing the club and AW. If we are not objective, we are going to help get our greatest ever manager fired; something whch the many scoundrels and idiots inside and outside the fanbase are hoping will happen.
IMO, when it comes to replacing Santi, Arsene and the club will have to spend big, at the level of Ozil or Sanchez. We cannot hope for manna to again fall from heaven such as when Santi fell in our lap from Malaga for relative pennies.
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I don’t think we have enough money to buy a player like Santi. Unless for some odd reason the big boys don’t want them
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Who is that player? I cannot conceive of Bernado Silva being extracted from Monaco…
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What a terrible Sunday…watching the Spuds and the Mancs win on the same day. What could be worse?
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If a turd like Pogba is going for £90mm and he is half Santi’s talent, then how much for a new Santi? It makes my head hurt.
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G-p: I feel your pain re United and Spurs. Bernardo Silva is over 30 when i checked. Even if he was available that is a poor investment.
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First Touch@First_Touch 2h2 hours ago
Liam Brady holds court for the @ArsenalNYC fans @barleycornnyc. Biggest cheer of the day was heard when he called @piersmorgan a wanker
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As we are averaging 1.76 points per game without Cazorla, that gives us a projection of around 72-73 points at the end of the season. Might need more to guarantee a top four place this year…..failing in that could mean the unthinkable, so I sincerely hope Wenger does come up with some solution, personally, I believe he will need to stop these MF injuries though
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Should rephrase that, the gods of footballing fate , with the help of opponents playing fair, and refs doing their job need to help stop these MF injuries…..that lot are a bit outside Wengers sphere of influence, especially when Mike Dean refs us at WHL and we get Mr Taylor at Stoke in the next few fixtures
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http://www.101greatgoals.com/news/arsenal-fan-catches-graeme-souness-hypocritical-deli-alli-xhaka-comments-twitter/
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Come on lads and lasses you have to do better than that. Arsene has been at our club for twenty years and solutions are very rarely like for like. As much as I like Santi any data saying a any player has a better pts per game ratio than any other is coincidence at best. In an Eleven man team, plus subs, plus refs, plus quality and form of opposition, plus luck there is so many different factors to consider. I’ve always been more of a logistics man than a pure data analysis guy and just because data tells you something is likely to happen you still have to plan for every eventuality.
Remember when Pires broke his leg towards the end of the season, he was our best player at the time that year, Freddie came in, the team was altered slightly and Freddie finished the season on fire.
Arsene just has to make slight adjustments so the combinations start working all over the pitch and yes he might need a period of injury free games its teams that win you things not individuals.
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Coincidence Ian? We are speaking of 4 years of data covering 152 games. Apparently you give no credence to the fact that Eccleshare (Telegraph) and Ronay (Guardian) came to the same conclusion I did after studying the data. I have no problem with healthy scepicism but it must be supported by observation and empirical data.
My observation is since Santi became absent, over time Arsenal has been struggling in midfield; labored and slow, unable to retain meaningful possession and to create decent chances for our attackers. Since you believe that it is not due to Santi’s absence, I would be interested in an alternative explanation of the precise cause(s). Like any medical doctor, it is important to make the correct diagnoses so as to prescribe the right remedy. Doctors cannot rely on a diagnosis 10-15 years ago to apply to a new patient, so please understand my scepticism to your making reference to Pires and Freddy.
Lets debate in the spirit of Positively Arsenal.
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Shotta, I don’t believe Ian disputed your assertion, he just believes/hopes Arsene can come up with a solution that isn’t a like for like replacement, which as you’ve been arguing isn’t possible with our team anyway. I personally prefer his optimism to the idea that there is no solution and we are completely doomed. I suppose that may be true, but if I want to watch the rest of the season with any joy at all, I’ll just leave you your data, if it’s all the same. You’ve made your point well, but Santi is out for the season so it’s a moot point anyway. I’m not sure what’s gained by debating it.
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http://www.mirror.co.uk/sport/football/news/thank-goodness-hes-him-graeme-9919974
Makes your heart sink that these pundits are idiotic enough to come out with stuff like that, and be paid for it.
Compare and contrast the reactions of the pundits to recent assaults by Alli,Alonso, the Sutton player….to the recent tackle by Xhaka which saw him sent off…apparently Xhaka is a liability who should be permanently banished from these shores, despite same pundits saying Arsenal should be more physical. Xhakas tackle posed a fraction of the danger of those three.
Dont know how Wenger keeps going.
The EPL, The FA, PGMOL, Fergies LMA , the MSM and their cartel have a lot to answer for in the decline of English football
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